Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/15/2025

For the week 3/10-3/14

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs, and your support is greatly appreciated.  Please click on the GoFundMe link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.

Edition 1,351

*As I go to post, we are awaiting key Senate votes on keeping the government open, and around 7:00 p.m. ET, we are supposed to get another SpaceX rocket launch, the mission that would rescue our two beloved astronauts from the International Space Station.  Fingers crossed on both.

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President Trump got the week off to a less than optimistic start when in an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo, he declined to rule out that the U.S. economy would contract this year and enter a recession, saying that his sweeping economic agenda could cause short-term turbulence that he believes would drive future prosperity.

Bartiromo asked if he was expecting a recession this year and Trump replied: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”

The president did receive some good inflation news, with better-than-expected figures on consumer and producer prices (detailed below), tame oil prices, and signs the bubble in egg prices has burst.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday, however: “There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data.

“What’s going to happen is the first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category, and then the second quarter is going to take off as everybody sees the reality of the tax cuts.”

Well, there is still work to do in Congress before permanence on the tax cut front is achieved, and with the tariff whiplash still a daily issue, consumer sentiment isn’t going to turn on a dime like Hassett is inferring.

But in an absolutely crazy Truth Social post Friday morning, Trump railed about the “Millions of people [who] are needlessly dead” in Ukraine, saying there would have been no war had he been president, and no October 7, and no Afghanistan, no “Country Destroying Inflation, like we have never seen before.”  He correctly said the border would have been far more secure.  But then he ended, “Oh, what a difference A RIGGED & CROOKED ELECTION HAD ON OUR COUNTRY, AND THE PEOPLE WHO DID THIS TO US SHOULD GO TO JAIL! GOD BLESS AMERICA AND, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

And then the president followed with a post on Russia/Ukraine and Putin:

“We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end – BUT, AT THIS VERY MOMENT, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY, AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE POSITION.  I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II.  God bless them all!!!”

Trump is referring to the situation in the Russian region of Kursk and the retreat taking place by Ukrainian forces who are also encircled, according to the Russians, but to talk of it in a social media post is disgraceful.

It’s all part of his negotiating in public before a ceasefire is even in place!

More importantly, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will be holding talks soon, possibly in person, and it scares the hell out of a lot of us as to what Trump will give Vlad at the expense of our allies (including Europe and NATO).

Understand just one thing.  Putin still seeks the complete subjugation of Ukraine. Period.

Much more on the war and ceasefire talks below.

And, also, the belligerent talk emanating from Chinese officials concerning Taiwan is at a level I don’t remember hearing before. 

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Meanwhile, on the tariff front....

President Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports Tuesday in response to Ontario charging Americans in parts of three border states 25% more for electricity.

The tariff was to go into effect Wednesday morning, and bring the total levy on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%.  Trump also demanded that Canada eliminate its 250% to 390% tariff on American dairy products. [More on the dairy topic below.]

Trump’s announcement came one day after Ontario Premier Doug Ford slapped a 25% surcharge on energy exports to the Canadian province’s three U.S. state customers: New York, Michigan and Minnesota.  Ford also threatened to cut off the exports entirely.

Overall, Canada then announced new 25% tariffs on about $20.8 billion of U.S.-made items, targeting U.S. steel and aluminum products as well as consumer items such as computers and sporting goods.

Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on ‘Electricity’ coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th.  Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on U.S. dairy products*, which has long been considered outrageous... We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year.  WHY???  This cannot continue.”

Reminder, this is a lie.  The trade deficit with Canada was $63 billion last year, $41 billion if you add in Services. 

*Ed: Yes, Canada imposes exorbitant tariffs on certain dairy products, including a tariff on milk that can be as high as 241%, much to the consternation of America’s dairy farmers.  But it’s a sliding scale tariff that only kicks in after U.S. dairy exports hit a certain quota, negotiated by Donald Trump – a level American exports haven’t reached, and as the U.S. dairy industry acknowledges, is not hitting its allowed zero-tariff maximum in any category of dairy product.

In many categories, including milk, the U.S. is not even at half of the zero-tariff maximum.

“In practice, these tariffs are not actually paid by anyone,” Al Mussell, an expert on Canadian agricultural trade, told CNN.

Trump continued with the above post:

“The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State.  This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.  Canadians’ taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, they would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever – And Canada will be a big part of that.  The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World – And your brilliant anthem, ‘O Canada,’ will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!”

Trump, in a succeeding post, said of the tariffs on electricity: “They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for may years to come!”

Later Tuesday, Premier Doug Ford backed off his threat after talking to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick,

The increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect Wednesday, drawing swift retaliation from Europe.  The European Commission announced a two-stage retaliation covering $28 billion in EU exports, including bourbon whiskey, boats and motorcycles. A second set is due in mid-April and will come after the bloc has consulted with EU countries and stakeholders. Ahead of the announcement, a European steel industry representative told Politico that the EU would “go full sledgehammer because they are so fed up with Trump.”

Meanwhile, the next prime minister of Canada, at least temporarily, is former central banker Mark Carney, who kicked butt in the Liberal Party vote Sunday with 85.9% support.

Carney, 59, replaces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation in January but remained PM until Carney was sworn in, which happened to be today, and now Carney will trigger an election amid Trump’s tariff threats.

Carney is a no-nonsense, frankly uber-talented guy, who was head of the Bank of Canada and in 2013 became the first noncitizen to run the Bank of England since it was founded in 1694.  Canada recovered from the 2008 financial crisis faster than many other countries and he helped manage the worst impacts of Brexit in the UK.

When the vote came in, Carney said: “We didn’t ask for this fight.  But Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.  The Americans, they should make no mistake, in trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”  [Psst...except the Stanley Cup, which a Canadian team hasn’t won since 1992-93.]

But, heck, if Canada becomes the 51st state, Carney could run for president!!!  [Canada doesn’t become a state without changing the citizenship requirements for same...so you’re hearing it here first, sports fans!]

First, however, Carney will be facing off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has previously been compared to Trump but now seeks to distance himself from the U.S. leaders, reiterating at a press conference earlier this week that he is “not MAGA.”

Back to the tariffs, China began imposing them on the U.S. Monday on many farm products, for which it is the largest overseas market.  The Chinese tariffs will include a levy of 15% on items like chicken, wheat and corn, as well as 10% on products like soybeans, pork, beef and fruit.

Thursday, President Trump threatened to impose a massive tariff on European alcohol in response to the European Union’s retaliation against his steel and aluminum tariffs – another tit-for-tat response.

“If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES,” Trump said.  “This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.”

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump wanted a trade war with the world, and Americans are getting it, good and hard.  Stock prices continued to decline on Tuesday amid the latest Canada-U.S. tariff tit-for-tat.  By the end of the day the two sides were talking about a temporary truce, but who knows which side of the tariff bed Mr. Trump will wake up on Wednesday?....

“Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said over the weekend that the President’s tariffs would make some foreign products more expensive but ‘American products will get cheaper.’ Huh?  Companies that use foreign components will have to raise prices or swallow narrower profit margins.  Does Mr. Lutnick understand, well, commerce?

“Domestic manufacturers that compete with foreign goods will raise their prices to take advantage of the protectionism to increase their margins. A study in the American Economic Review found that consumers paid $817,000 for each new manufacturing job created by Mr. Trump’s washing machine tariffs in his first term.

“And Mr. Trump is only getting started as he prepares to take his trade war global. He promised Tuesday to ‘substantially increase’ tariffs on cars on April 2, which he said would ‘essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada.’ So first he whacks U.S. auto makers with tariffs that raise their production costs, then he tries to shield them from foreign competition by whacking American consumers....

“The trouble with trade wars is that once they begin they can quickly escalate and get out of control. All the more so when politicians are nearing an election campaign, as Canada now is.  Or when Mr. Trump behaves as if his manhood is implicated because a foreign nation won’t take his nasty border taxes lying down.

“We said from the beginning that this North American trade war is the dumbest in history, and we were being kind.”

Bret Stephens / New York Times

“It used to be common knowledge – not just among policymakers and economists but also high school students with a grasp of history – that tariffs are a terrible idea.  The phrase ‘beggar thy neighbor’ meant something to regular people, as did the names of Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis Hawley.  Americans broadly understand how much their 1930 tariff, along with other protectionist and isolationist measures, did to turn a global economic crisis into another world war.  Thirteen successive presidents all but vowed never to repeat those mistakes.

“Until Donald Trump.  Until him, no U.S. president has been so ignorant of the lessons of history. Until him, no U.S. president has been so incompetent in putting his own ideas into practice.

“That’s a conclusion that stock markets seem to have drawn as they plunged following the Trump triple whammy: first, tariff threats against our largest trading partners, spelling much higher costs; second, twice-repeated monthlong reprieves on some of those tariffs, meaning a zero-predictability business environment; finally, his tacit admission, to Maria Bartiromo of Fox News, that the United States could go into recession this year, and that it’s a price he’s willing to pay to do what he calls a ‘big thing.’

“In short, a willful, erratic and heedless president is prepared to risk both the U.S. and global economy to make his ideological point.  This won’t end well, especially in a no-guardrails administration staffed by a how-high team of enablers and toadies....

“Trump’s critics are always quick to see the sinister sides of his actions and declarations.  An even greater danger may lie in the shambolic nature of his policymaking. Democracy may die in darkness.  It may die in despotism.  Under Trump, it’s just as liable to die in dumbness.”

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Trump, Elon, cont’d....

--Elon Musk called entitlement spending – including Social Security and Medicare – a key target for cuts, arguing the federal programs are plagued by fraud.

Musk, in an interview with Fox Business’ Larry Kudlow Monday, said that entitlements with annual budgets of hundreds of billions of dollars were ripe for steep reductions.  He made unproven claims about benefits, including that Democrats use them to “attract and retain illegal immigrants by essentially paying them to come here and then turning them into voters.”  He also repeated the claim there are widespread payments to dead people.

“Most of the federal spending is entitlements,” Musk said.  “So that’s like the big one to eliminate.”

Broad cuts to entitlements would run up against Trump’s 2024 campaign promise not to reduce Social Security and Medicare benefits.  Trump repeated that pledge on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, saying that he wouldn’t reduce legitimate entitlement benefits but would go after improper payments.

Reminder, last year, Social Security’s internal watchdog found that $71.8 billion in improper payments occurred between 2015 and 2022, less than 1% of all benefits.

--The government agency responsible for weather forecasts is planning another round of mass layoffs as part of President Trump’s plan to thin the ranks of the U.S. civil service.

The planned layoffs of 1,029 workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration follow 1,300 who have already been fired from the agency, which also conducts climate research and other scientific tasks.

The two rounds of layoffs would shrink the agency’s headcount by roughly 20% since the start of the year.

--Mass firings began at the Defense Department last week, as multiple organizations received direction to put targeted probationary employees on administrative leave. Defense officials have announced plans to fire some 5,400 of the department’s 55,000 total probationary employees.

This wave of firings will be followed by a hiring freeze and, eventually, a 5- to 8-percent cut of all civilian workers, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said.

The SecDef decreed last Friday that the “5 bullet points” email is now a weekly task for Pentagon civilians, of which there are roughly 760,000 in all.  They must send a list of their previous week’s achievements by Tuesday to the personnel and readiness directorate and copy their immediate supervisors.

Multiple intelligence officials told the Washington Post anonymously that this was a terribly risky policy.  While the submissions must exclude classified or sensitive information, “Adversaries are salivating over the thought of access to whatever ecosystem that DOGE is using in sifting through these bullets,” said one U.S. official in touch with Cyber Command personnel.

The Air Force is so worried that it sent its own follow-up guidance:

“Remove your contact info/signature block from the email. Individuals can be tracked via email if necessary.

“BCC your supervisor to meet the requirement to Courtesy Copy your supervisor.

“If you cannot provide accomplishments in an unclassified manner, send your 5 bullet points to your supervisor using the appropriate network.”

The advice goes on.  [Defense One]

--House Armed Services Committee members visited the immigrant detention center at Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, last Friday.

“This is immoral theater on the taxpayers’ dime...Already, the project has cost $16 million – but only has capacity to hold 225 immigrants – and dozens of tents costing millions of dollars aren’t being used because they don’t meet [the Department of Homeland Security’s] standards,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-California.  “Thousands of military personnel are guarding a current immigrant population of 41, with only a little over half being categorized as a high threat,” she said.

HASC Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), on the other hand, was not terribly interested in costs or capacity. “Border security is national security and I’m proud of the role the Department of Defense has played in protecting our nation and ending the invasion at our southern border.” [Defense One]

But then we learned this week that all of the migrants had been removed and flown to the U.S., a Defense Department official said Wednesday, specifically to Louisiana and a detention center in Alexandria.  This came after the Department of Homeland Security sent another group of 48 migrants back to the same city from Guantanamo.

Talk about a waste of money. The military flights to ship the migrants to Guantanamo in the first place were very expensive.

--The Education Department said Tuesday that it is cutting its staff by about half, a major step toward President Trump’s goal of shrinking the federal role in education and one that critics denounced as damaging to American children.

Trump has said he wants to eliminate the department altogether, but that is unlikely because it would require an act of Congress and 60 yes votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold only 53 seats.  Absent that, the administration has been working to gut the agency by cutting grants and contracts and reducing staff.

The department said Tuesday that 1,315 people were being laid off and that nearly 600 others had accepted offers to leave the agency voluntarily.  In addition, 63 probationary employees were already dismissed.  The reductions will leave a department that had about 4,133 employees on the first day of the Trump administration with fewer than 2,200.

“Today’s reduction in force reflects the Department of Education’s commitment to efficiency, accountability and ensuring that resources are directed where they matter most: to students, parents, and teachers,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said in a statement.

President Trump campaigned on a promise to close the department, saying it had been overtaken by “radicals, zealots and Marxists.”

--In what he called the “most consequential day of deregulation in American history,” the head of the EPA announced a series of actions Wednesday to roll back landmark environmental regulations, including rules on pollution from coal-fired power plants, climate change and electric vehicles.

“We are driving a dagger through the heart of climate-change religion and ushering in America’s Golden Age,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin  said in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.

If approved after a lengthy process that includes public comment, the Trump administration’s actions will eliminate trillions of dollars in regulatory costs and “hidden taxes,” Zeldin said, lowering the cost of living for American families and reducing prices for such essentials such as buying a car, heating your home and operating a business.

Zeldin said he and President Trump support rewriting the agency’s 2009 finding that planet-warming greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare. The Obama-era determination under the Clean Air Act is the legal underpinning of a host of climate regulations for motor vehicles, power plants and pollution sources.

Environmentalists and climate scientists call the endangerment finding a bedrock of U.S. law and that any attempt to undo it will not stand in court.

--Staff at USAID were ordered to destroy classified documents and personnel records, according to a memo from a top official and potentially in violation of federal laws, prompting fresh legal challenges as well as alarm from the union that represents foreign service officers.

--A federal judge on Thursday ordered six federal agencies to reinstate thousands of probationary employees who were fired last month, dealing a blow to the administration’s efforts to rapidly scale back the size of the federal workforce.

U.S. District Judge William Alsup of California, a nominee of former President Clinton, pointed to employees who were told they were fired for cause despite stellar performance reviews.  “It’s a sad day when the federal government would fire a good employee and say it’s based on performance when they know good and well that’s a lie,” Alsup said in remarks delivered from the bench.  “That should not be done in our country. It was a sham to avoid statutory requirements.”

But where the employees actually stand is still in question, as in all of the federal rulings we’ve seen since Musk and his Boys Club insurgents began their operation.

--The White House withdrew the nomination of Dr. David Weldon, a former Florida congressman, to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, hours before he was scheduled to appear before the Senate health committee for his hearing.

Weldon was considered to be closely aligned with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and a fellow vaccine critic.

Some say he didn’t have the votes. It seems to me he did.

--Eric Geller / WIRED:

“Employees at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency tell WIRED they’re struggling to protect the U.S. while the administration dismisses their colleagues and poisons their partnerships.

“Mass layoffs and weak leadership are taking a severe toll on the U.S. government’s cyber defense agency, undermining its ability to protect America from foreign adversaries bent on crippling infrastructure and ransomware gangs that are bleeding small businesses dry.

“Inside the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, vital support staff are gone, international partnerships have been strained, and workers are afraid to discuss threats to democracy that they’re now prohibited from countering.  Employees are even more overworked than usual, and new assignments from the administration are interfering with important tasks.  Meanwhile, CISA’s temporary leader is doing everything she can to appease President Donald Trump, infuriating employees who say she’s out of touch and refusing to protect them.

“ ‘You’re got a lot of people who...are looking over their shoulder as opposed to looking at the enemy right now,’ says one CISA employee.”

--The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan reported on the explosive cabinet meeting where Trump officials clashed with Elon Musk, and it was a big story over the weekend. 

Musk blasted Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not firing anyone. Rubio has been furious with Musk for shutting the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) that was supposedly under Rubio’s control.

Rubio said Musk wasn’t being truthful, referring to the more than 1,500 State Department officials who took early retirement in buyouts.

Musk was unimpressed, told Rubio he was “good on TV,” with the clear subtext being that he was not good for much else.  “Throughout all of this, the president sat back in his chair, arms folded, as if he were watching a tennis match,” reported Haberman and Swan.

Trump then finally intervened to defend Rubio as doing a “great job.”

Musk got in a dust-up with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who “said the young staff of Mr. Musk’s team was trying to lay off air traffic controllers.  What am I supposed to do? Mr. Duffy said. I have multiple plane crashes to deal with now, and your people want me to fire air traffic controllers?” [NY Times]

Musk asserted Duffy was lying.  Duffy insisted he was not.  Musk asked for the names of those who had been fired.  Duffy said there were not any names, because he had stopped them from being fired.  Musk insisted there were people in the control tower who were hired under DEI programs.

“The exchange ended with Mr. Trump telling Mr. Duffy that he had to hire people from M.I.T. as air traffic controllers. These air traffic controllers need to be ‘geniuses,’ he said.” [NY Times]

--From the Washington Post:

“Elon Musk’s sweeping makeover of the federal government in recent weeks is reverberating across the private sector, where companies have started expressing fear and uncertainty about disruptions these changes might inflict on their businesses.

“As the year’s first earnings season kicks off, dozens of companies in health care, technology, real estate and defense – industries that might have expected rising profits from President Donald Trump’s business-friendly campaign posture – are warning investors in their quarterly reports and conference calls that the effects of rapid change in Washington are unpredictable and could hurt their bottom lines.

“ ‘I hope over time that DOGE can potentially become a tailwind for companies like us who are focusing on the federal government,’ Carl Eschenbach, CEO of human-resources software maker Workday, said at an investor conference [a week ago]Tuesday.  ‘But right now, there is a lot of uncertainty, and I don’t know when that’s going to tip.’”

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Wall Street and the Economy

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who two months ago defended President Trump’s tariff policy with a curt message: “Get over it,” has changed his tune with stock markets lower and cracks appearing in the economy.

“I don’t think the average American consumer who wakes up in the morning and goes to work...changes what they’re going to do because they read about tariffs,” Dimon said in an interview for Semafor.  “But I do think companies might.  Uncertainty is not a good thing.”

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, in an interview with CNN, said” “The collective impact (of the risks of a trade war) in the short run is that people are pausing, they’re pulling back.  Talking to the CEOs throughout the economy, I hear that the economy is weakening as we speak.”

Fink does say that the administration’s tariff policies could be beneficial to the United States in the long run.

“Right now the president is focusing on tariffs, but when he talks about reciprocal tariffs, actually, that may bring down tariffs over the long run,” Fink said, adding that he remains bullish on America in the long term.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said headwinds from Trump’s tariffs are hampering dealmaking activity, and business chiefs are eager for more clarity on where any White House strategy may be headed.  He does expect mergers and capital-markets activity to pick up through the year, adding that promised cuts to U.S. regulations are also likely to create tailwinds.

[Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius cut his 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, pointing to the impact of tariffs on the economy and consumers.  At the start of this year, he was predicting 2.4% growth.]

We then had the inflation figures for February, as alluded to up top, and both consumer and producer prices came in better than expected across the board.

CPI rose 0.2%, up 2.8% year-over-year; ex-food and energy (core) up 0.2%, 3.1% from a year ago.

PPI was unchanged, up 3.2% year-over-year, while on core, it was -0.1% and 3.2%.

But the headline CPI figure of 2.8% is simply the lowest since last September, as in progress towards the Fed’s stated objective of 2% has been virtually non-existent after the initial fall from the peak of 9.1%.

And any impact from the tariffs would hit the numbers in the coming months.  So the Federal Reserve will no doubt hold the line at next week’s Open Market Committee meeting, and the one in May, but traders still expect a cut in June.  That’s going to be dependent on a lot of things, namely where the economy stands at that point.

We did have evidence of good news on the egg front.  While the price was officially up nearly 59% from a year ago, and 10.4% in February from January, there is evidence prices have been falling thus far in March and no new bird flu outbreaks have been detected.

But eggs, by the way, make up just 0.194% of the CPI index...that’s out of 100.00.  Food, overall, is 13.681.

Personally, I’ve been focused in this space on the rise in motor vehicle insurance and that has come down from a 20% pace to 11%.  Let’s hope the trend continues because these are real dollars we are all having to spend.

Also, on Friday, we had another awful reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next five to 10 years, the highest reading since 1993.  They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4.9% over the next year, the highest since 2022.

Next week, the Fed, lots of housing data and a key report on retail sales.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is at minus-2.4%, but there are a ton of items next week that can move this figure significantly.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is 6.65%.

Editorial / Washington Post

“(The) president’s frequent shifts in policy stand to have a chilling effect.  In the past month alone, tariffs have been imposed, delayed, reimposed, and now – at least for some categories of goods – delayed for another month. Adding to the unease will be the administration’s attacks on the justice system, which foreign investors, especially, are bound to be watching.  To repeat: There is a reason that so much foreign debt is structured to be governed by U.S. law.  Signaling that America’s trade policies could change at any time, and that its justice system is vulnerable to political influence, risks the country’s position as a global destination for securities issuance and investment capital.

“Supporters of Trump’s aggressive moves might retort that he was clear on the campaign trail about his fondness for tariffs.  This is true, but it was not clear that there would be sweeping rewrites of trade rules, rather than the kind of modest changes he imposed during his first term.  (Modest by comparison, anyway: In 2018, Ford Motor Co. said tariffs had cost the company $1 billion.)  The haste with which this year’s tariffs have been imposed, and Trump’s dubious rationales for imposing them, justifiably make people worry that the current trade rules could be rewritten again and again.

“And while companies could resolve this uncertainty once and for all by making, and sourcing, products in the United States, this is a costly proposition – too costly, in some cases, to be worthwhile.  If domestically made products are more expensive than foreign ones, investments might not pencil out, and some exporters might find themselves priced out of global markets.  This retrenchment will ripple through an economy that already looks fragile.”

With the government facing a March 14 shutdown, House Republicans pushed for a bill over the weekend that would extend current funding levels until the end of the fiscal year in late September, yet another CR, continuing resolution, to stave off the shutdown.

But funding would largely stay at the level President Biden set last year, rather than allow the appropriations committees to set new spending levels – hardly the win they were hoping for.

The House GOP plan trimmed spending from the 2024 fiscal year by $13 billion.  It would increase funding for veteran health care and defense in an attempt to assuage defense hawks, but by only $6 billion, and the spending reductions would not touch benefits like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  It does not include disaster relief for fires in California, and it does not address the looming debt ceiling issue.

Democrats argue that a CR would make it easier for Elon Musk and DOGE to drastically slash the size of government.  Republicans have raised concerns about some of Musk’s cuts, but have largely supported his efforts to slash the size of the federal government.

After the bill was released, Trump encouraged his party to support the measure.  “All Republicans should vote (Please!) YES next week,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Passage of a CR would give Republicans time to refocus on piecing together Trump’s “big, beautiful” legislative agenda through the reconciliation process and begin negotiations to fund the government for the 2026 fiscal year before September’s deadline.

Trump wrote: “Conservatives will love this Bill, because it sets us up to cut Taxes and Spending in Reconciliation, all while effectively FREEZING Spending this year.”

The House then narrowly passed the CR, 217-213, Tuesday, one Republican voting against, one Democrat for, sending it to the Senate.

It’s a big victory for Speaker Mike Johnson.

While several Senate Democrats have slammed the legislation – Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) warned that a shutdown could play into Trump and Musk’s strategy to eliminate federal programs.

But then Wednesday, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said his party would block the spending bill and urged the GOP to accept a Democratic plan to provide funding through April 11 instead.

Thursday, Schumer reversed course.  He said he had two choices: drop his threat to block the Republican bill or force a disruptive March 15 shutdown.

The Democratic leader ultimately opted for the path of least resistance after a day of contentious meetings inside his party, others hoping to use their limited leverage on a spending package to include some restraints on Musk and DOGE.

“The Republican bill is a terrible option,” Schumer said Thursday evening on the Senate floor.  “It is deeply partisan. It doesn’t address far too many of this country’s needs.  But I believe allowing Donald Trump to take even much more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option.”

In a shutdown, Schumer said, “the Trump administration would have full authority to deem whole agencies, programs and personnel nonessential, furloughing staff with no promise that they would ever be rehired.”

He also warned that if the government closed, the president and Republicans would have no incentive to reopen it, since they could selectively fund “their favorite departments and agencies, while leaving other vital services that they don’t like to languish.”

But were there sufficient Democratic votes to move the legislation past procedural hurdles?  We’ll find out shortly.

Of course, any funding bill has everything to do with the federal budget deficit, which the Treasury Department showed Wednesday was $1.147 trillion for October through February, a record for the period. [Reminder, the fiscal year commences October 1st.] In the comparable period a year earlier, the deficit was $828 billion.

For February, the deficit came in at $311 billion on an adjusted basis (accounting for calendar-related shifts in spending), versus $302 billion a year earlier.

Net interest expense year to date is $396 billion, so on track for $900 billion or thereabouts.  Just let that sink in....I’ve only talked about it all 26 years of Week in Review.

Gross receipts from customs duties totaled $7.675 billion in February, compared with $6.752 billion a year earlier.

Europe and Asia

After a flood of data in recent weeks, just one data point for the eurozone, via Eurostat...industrial production in January increased by 0.8% compared with December, but decreased by 0.2% year-over-year.

In Asia...China released its February inflation data and it was back to deflation mode, -0.7% year-over-year versus 0.5% prior, -0.2% compared with January.  Producer prices for February continued to fall, -2.3% from a year ago, and versus -2.2% prior.

Japan released the final GDP reading for the fourth quarter, up 2.2% annualized, vs. 1.4% in the prior period.  Solid, though less than a preliminary reading.

January household spending, a big metric here (like our retail sales), rose 0.8% year-over-year.

February producer prices were unchanged for the month, but up 4.0% from a year ago.

Street Bytes

--The S&P 500 hit correction mode on Thursday, down 10.1% off its high, with Nasdaq having done the same earlier, down 14.2% from its record mark as of Thursday’s close as well.

But Friday’s big relief rally significantly pared the losses for the week; the Dow Jones finishing down 3.1% to 41488, the S&P off 2.3%, and Nasdaq 2.4%, its fourth straight 2%+ weekly decline.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.25%  2-yr. 4.02%  10-yr. 4.31%  30-yr. 4.62%

Despite the turmoil in the equity markets, Treasuries were largely unchanged on the week, and it was the same overseas.

--Apple stock struggled Monday, falling 5% after reports the company has delayed the release of an artificial-intelligence-powered upgrade to its Siri digital assistant.

Bloomberg first reported last Friday that Apple has delayed the Siri AI update indefinitely.  The company first demonstrated AI features for Siri last June at its Worldwide Developers Conference.  Those features included the ability for Siri to tap into a user’s personal information to answer queries and have more precise control over apps.

The Siri AI upgrade previously had been planned for release in April.  Now it might not be released until next year, Bloomberg said.

--Oracle shares were rising in the aftermarket Monday after the company reported results for the fiscal third-quarter below the Street’s expectations, but the company declared a 25% increase in the dividend to 50 cents per share, and Oracle said it had signed cloud agreements with several major tech companies, including ChatGPT parent OpenAI, Meta Platforms and Nvidia, which would help drive a 15% increase in overall revenue in the next fiscal year.

But then on Tuesday, the shares fell because of a disappointing profit forecast for the current quarter.

Fiscal third-quarter sales increased 6% to $14.1 billion, with consensus at $14.4 billion.  Adjusted earnings of $1.47 a share fell short of the Street’s estimate of $1.49.

Cloud services and license support revenue was $11 billion, increasing 10% form the previous year but missing projections of $11.21 billion.

“We are on schedule to double our data center capacity this calendar year,” Oracle Chief Technology Officer Larry Ellison said in the earnings release.  “Customer demand is at record levels.”

CEO Safra Catz said on the conference call after that she expects fiscal 2025 capex to be “a little more than double” what it was last year, at around $16 billion.

The company projected sales will increase 15% in the fiscal year beginning in June and 20% in fiscal year 2027 (citing a large sales backlog), with analysts at 13% and 14%, respectively, but it was the current quarter guidance that hurt the shares in the short run.

--Intel shares rose following the announcement that the company named Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO.  He is deeply respected in the corporate world and seen as the only person who might have a chance at saving this once mighty American institution and restoring it to its former glory.

Reviving Intel’s chip-fabricating operations will be the most difficult part of Tan’s job, and one that jives with the Trump administration’s bid to revive American manufacturing.  Secure supply chains are key to that goal and ensuring them for semiconductors is arguably the most important pillar.

But Trump has called for an end to the Chips Act – which is set to grant up to $8.5 billion in direct funding to Intel as a big incentive to set up new factories across the U.S.  Instead, Trump hopes to achieve similar goals via the threat of tariffs, and getting the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor to invest in the U.S.

Tan, however, seems intent on maintaining the company in its present form, rather than the rumored takeover by Taiwan Semi of Intel’s chip-making facilities.

--Delta Air Lines slashed its first-quarter earnings and revenue guidance, citing recently reduced consumer and corporate confidence amid “increased macro uncertainty.”

The Atlanta-based carrier cut its first-quarter revenue growth forecast to 3% to 4%, less than half its earlier forecast of 7% to 9%. And it slashed its forecast for adjusted earnings to 30 cents to 50 cents a share, from an earlier forecast range of 70 cents to $1 a share.

“The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand,” Delta said in a regulatory filing.

It expects a first-quarter operating margin of 4% to 5%, compared with 6% to 8% previously forecast.

Delta noted that its “Premium, international and loyalty revenue growth trends are consistent with expectations and reflect the resilience of Delta’s diversified revenue base.”

Delta is slated to report its quarterly financial results on Wednesday, April 9.

--American Airlines followed Delta by forecasting a bigger first-quarter loss, amid concerns that tariff pressures and government spending uncertainties could dampen travel demand.

The airline now expects adjusted loss per share in the range of about 60 cents to 80 cents, compared with its previous forecast for a loss of about 20 cents to 40 cents.

--Southwest Airlines plans to start charging for checked bags, bringing an end to its ‘bags fly free’ policy after 54 years.  While this disappoints consumers, it had the opposite effect on investors, the shares rising 8%, even as Southwest lowered its revenue outlook for the first quarter, along with Delta and American.

[Some flyers in Southwest’s rewards programs, including those using the Southwest credit card, will still get at least one bag free.]

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

3/13...113 percent of 2024 levels
3/12...104
3/11...79
3/10...91
3/9...114
3/8...84
3/7...102
3/6...117

--Tesla stock fell more than 10% Monday to $221 a share, down from its Dec. 18 intraday high of $488, on another bearish call from Wall Street, the shares down below where they were before the presidential election, even as Tesla ‘bulls’ double down.

The big issue is growing concern over the electric-car maker’s deliveries.  One analyst projects a 16% reduction from his prior estimates for this quarter.  And UBS Group’s Joseph Spak also doesn’t expect the company to sell more vehicles in 2025 than last year, projecting a roughly 5% annual drop.

I get it...save for President Trump saying he’d buy a Tesla to support his buddy Elon Musk, there are a lot of reasons not to buy one, with the anti-Musk backlash growing, worldwide...dealerships and cars vandalized, plummeting sales in countries such as Germany.

Elon Musk keeps talking about the fact that the Tesla story is more about it being an artificial-intelligence pioneer that will soon unleash a revolution in robotaxis and humanoid robots.

But when?  This is a guy who has never, ever, hit a production or product rollout target.  Period.  As a JP Morgan analyst, Ryan Brinkman, wrote back in January, “For how much longer can the stock remain divorced from the fundamentals?”  The company is still valued on the projected sales from products most likely years from hitting the streets in any broad-based way.

Maybe Musk’s political clout means Trump will clear regulatory roadblocks that allow the deployment of a vast fleet of Tesla robotaxis.

But as some have pointed out, Tesla faces few regulatory roadblocks in the states today, such as in Texas, where Musk promises to launch fare-collecting robotaxis by June.  But will he?

Many folks also say that with Musk’s DOGE work, he obviously isn’t spending as much time as he did on Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Co., X, and his other holdings.

Musk said over the weekend he’s likely to spend another year on DOGE business, which isn’t good news for Tesla shareholders.

--Speaking of electric vehicles, China in February again led purchases of EVs, even as European Union tariffs on China-made EVs reduced sales of some brands, research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday.

Overall sales, including battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, rose by 49% in February year-on-year to 1.2 million, but the researchers said the figure was distorted by the timing of Chinese New Year.

Compared with January, figures were down 3%.

--From a piece in Barron’s, just to give you a sense of the exposure in the auto industry with talk about potential tariffs on April 2nd for Canada and Mexico.

“Moving all the regional car production for the U.S. would be a tall order.  The car industry has spent 30-plus years treating North America as one free-trade zone.

“Mexico makes almost four million cars a year and exports about 80% of them.  Canada assembles closer to 1.5 million vehicles annually.  It exports many, but it imports a similar amount from the U.S.

“Ford, GM and Stellantis have five plants in Canada.  Honda has one; Toyota has two.  There are, of course, parts makers in Canada serving those plants.

“Many popular cars come from those facilities. Ford manufactures its Edge crossover vehicle in Canada.  GM produces some of its Chevy Silverado pickup trucks there. Stellantis makes Dodge Chargers and Chrysler minivans. Toyota makes its popular RAV4, while Honda makes Civics.”

--Ford Motor said it will inject up to 4.4 billion euros ($4.76 billion) into its struggling German operations as it tries to revive its European business, the carmaker said on Monday.

But Ford has also been laying off thousands in Europe.

--The National Association of Home Builders estimates that around 8% of the materials used to construct a new home are imported from outside the U.S., which includes everything from Canadian softwood lumber used for door frames and decking, to refrigerators from Mexico.

With tariffs in place or looming, in a more normal housing market, this would be passed on to consumers.  But now is a bad time to ask buyers to pay more.  Home prices and mortgage rates are still high, so it’s about affordability.

Which leads me to the issue in the Los Angeles area after the fires.

The Palisades (Pacific Palisades) fire destroyed more than 5,500 homes – mostly single-family residences, but also 1,300 multifamily units and mobile homes.

Debris is getting cleared, claims are being processed and property owners are starting to plan new structures.  Forget the issue of building back smarter/better, you need affordable housing, but some residents want to make their enclave even more exclusive rather than see a lot of affordable housing. 

--Dick’s Sporting Goods shares fell 6% after the company posted fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $300 million, a profit of $3.62 a share that topped expectations of $3.49.

The sporting goods retailer posted revenue of $3.89 billion in the period, also surpassing consensus of $3.76bn.

Comparable store sales grew 6.4% year-over-year, driven by increases in both average ticket size and transaction volume.  For the full fiscal year, comp sales rose 5.2%, which is strong.

For the year, the company reported profit of $1.17 billion, or $14.05 per share. Revenue was $13.44 billion.

But Dick’s expects full-year earnings to be $13.80 to $14.40 per share, below the consensus estimate for $14.82, on revenue of $13.6 billion to $13.9 billion.

CEO Lauren Hobart, in a call discussing earnings, said “there is so much uncertainty in the world today in the geopolitical environment, macroeconomic environment, we are just being appropriately cautious.”

Dick’s has said its current outlook doesn’t include the new changes in tariffs. The company has “very limited to negligible exposure from Mexico and Canada” and has significantly diversified its apparel sourcing away from China.

--Kohl’s Corp. shares on Tuesday hit their lowest level since 1996 after the retailer forecast a bigger drop in annual comparable sales then expected, piling on more pressure on new boss Ashley Buchanan as he engineers a turnaround while struggling with uneven demand.

Kohl’s joins larger rival Macy’s and big-box retailers Walmart and Target in providing a cautious forecast as U.S. inflation risks rise and recession fears mount amid a chaotic implementation of President Trump’s tariffs.

The squeeze comes as sales have been under pressure over the last three years as consumers turned to cheaper options at discount retailers including TJ Maxx parent TJX Cos.

Kohl’s expects 2025 same-store sales to decline 4% to 6%, compared with estimates for a 0.9% drop.  That’s awful.

As CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday, this is an existential threat.  I went to my neighborhood Kohl’s on Monday, looking for a bargain on winter wear, as I optimistically plan on being alive from next Dec. thru Feb.  And I found a great heavy pullover I’ll no doubt be wearing almost every day at ½ price.

But you can indeed find cheaper clothes at Walmart, which is close by and where I get my jeans for $20, which you can’t find at Kohl’s.

--Manhattan apartment rents soared to a record high in February amid intense competition.  New leases were signed at a median of $4,500 last month, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman.  That’s up 6.4% from a year earlier, and $100 more than the previous record, reached in the summer of 2023.

It’s an eye-opening increase for the middle of winter, a time when the rental market historically cools.

It seems many people who might have purchased a home after the election with the expectation of more certainty may instead be holding off, according to Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.

Certainty is certainly not a buzzword these days...try uncertainty.

Foreign Affairs:

Russia / Ukraine: The Trump administration and Ukraine held their first high-level talks Tuesday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, since the combative Oval Office encounter in which President Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of being unwilling to negotiate a peace settlement with Moscow.  The two sides then reached agreement on a 30-day ceasefire.

As part of the arrangement, the Trump administration lifted its suspension of military aid for Ukraine and the pause on intelligence sharing.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Ukraine will have to cede some of its territory to Moscow to secure a peace deal – as western diplomats warn that President Vladimir Putin will not accept any concessions on his demands.

“Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the two nations announced in a joint statement.

“The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace.”

Sec. Rubio said the U.S. would take the offer to Russia and that the ball is in Moscow’s court.

Ukraine was “ready to stop shooting and start talking,” the secretary said, and if Russia rejected the offer, “then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”

“Today, we made an offer that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a ceasefire and into immediate negotiations,” he said.

In a video message, Zelensky said Russia had to “show the willingness to stop the war or continue the war,” adding, “It is time for the full truth.”

President Trump told reporters: “Hopefully President Putin will agree (to the ceasefire) also, and we can get this show on the road. It takes two to tango.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov then said Wednesday that it’s important not to “get ahead” of the question of responding to the ceasefire proposal.

He told reporters that Moscow is awaiting “detailed information” about it from the U.S. and suggested Russia must get that before it can take a position.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a British and French proposal to deploy peacekeeping troops to ensure that a future peace agreement isn’t violated by Russia -a European proposal that Trump has welcomed.

The other day, prior to the talks, influential Russian lawmaker Kostantin Kosachev said that any potential agreements would be “on our terms, not American.”

Kosachev, chairman of the Federation Council’s international affairs committee, said “real agreements are still being written...at the front,” stressing that Russian troops were advancing in Ukraine.

Russia launched a deadly missile assault on President Zelensky’s hometown Wednesday – just hours after Kyiv agreed to the U.S.-proposed ceasefire.

The overnight attack on Kryvyi Rih killed a 47-year-old woman and injured at least nine others, while damaging high-rise apartment buildings, an infrastructure facility, a shop and an educational facility, the regional governor said.

Zelensky’s hometown has been a frequent target ever since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

The Kremlin said later Wednesday that Putin had been told Russian forces were in the final stage of the operation to drive Ukraine from territory it seized across the border in Kursk.

Putin made a surprise visit to Kursk that day – the first since Ukraine’s incursion last August – with Russian media reporting he ordered the military to “fully liberate” the region.

The head of Ukraine’s military, Oleksandr Syrsky, also indicated that some of its troops were withdrawing from Kursk.

North Korean troops have been helping Russia take back territory Ukraine gained in its surprise attack there last year, with Russia conducting a “major encirclement operation” of Ukrainian forces, Reuters reported.  The advance is posing a dilemma for Kyiv, and “just as the spring thaw turns roads to mud tracks: should it withdraw from Kursk, and if so, can it do so without a disorderly rush to the border under intense Russian fire?’

--Hours before the talks in Jeddah began, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack on Moscow of the war, targeting the Russian capital and other regions.  Moscow authorities said the attack led to three deaths, 18 injured.

Some 337 drones over 10 Russian regions were launched in the massive attack.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said over 70 drones targeted the Russian capital and were shot down as they were flying toward it.

Ukraine also came under Russian attack, including the southern port city of Odesa, as well as the northern region of Sumy and the southern city of Kherson, with at least one killed, scores injured.

--There are reports Ukrainian forces have stalled the Russian offensive in the eastern Donetsk region in recent months and have started to win back small patches of land, according to Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts.

Russia still holds the initiative and daily conducts dozens of assaults across the eastern front, but after more than 15 months on the offensive, Russian brigades have been depleted and Moscow is struggling to replace destroyed equipment.  Poor weather has also been a factor.

Russia has also been saddling up horses and donkeys.  The mammals carry supplies and soldiers to avoid the attention of drones, which can easily spot and strike armored and other vehicles moving near the front line, the Wall Street Journal reported.

--Going back to last Saturday, at least 25 Ukrainians died in the latest wave of Russian strikes, one attack on the Donetsk region killing at least 11 and wounding 40, including children. The Russian attacks had intensified after the U.S. paused military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv.

After Saturday’s strikes, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: “This is what happens when someone appeases barbarians.”

“More bombs, more aggression, more victims,” he added in a social media post.

Poland continues to talk of acquiring U.S. nuclear weapons for its own defense and to serve as a deterrence.

--All of the above bringing us to Thursday, and today....

A key Russian negotiator, Yuri Ushakov, a senior aide to Vladimir Putin, rejected the proposed ceasefire in Ukraine.

The Russian military said it had retaken Sudzha, the biggest town in Kursk; Kyiv using Sudzha as a logistical hub to resupply troops in the area.

Critics of the Kursk operation, including many in Ukraine and military analysts, said the incursion into Russia had drained resources and manpower from strained parts of the Ukrainian front line. Zelensky had argued that control of Russian territory would provide leverage in any future negotiations to end the war.

Putin, speaking in his military uniform from Kursk had said on Wednesday, hours after Trump said he hoped the Kremlin would agree to the ceasefire:

“Our task in the near future, in the shortest possible timeframe, is to decisively defeat the enemy entrenched in the Kursk region.  And of course, we need to think about creating a security zone along the state border.”

There was no talk of a ceasefire.  Instead, Putin said Russia wanted a truce that led “to a lasting peace and the elimination of the root causes” of the war, which he described as a crisis.  Ah yes, the phrase “root causes” is very much a loaded one, and one that President Trump falls for every time.

Putin said Thursday that “The idea (of a ceasefire) itself is good, and we of course support it, but there are questions we have to discuss.”

Vlad the Impaler said it wasn’t clear how such a ceasefire would be enforced and whether it would give Ukraine the chance to shore up its forces.

“Who will give orders to stop fighting? What is the price of those orders? Who will determine where and by whom they were violated?” he said, adding he intended to discuss such questions with Trump.

“Putin doesn’t feel any pressure,” said Konstantin Sonin, a Russia expert who teaches at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy.  “Trump has no leverage over him, and he thinks he’s winning.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that if Russia rejected the 30-day U.S.-brokered cease-fire that Ukraine had accepted, ‘we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.’ We knew that before, but now we know even on Mr. Rubio’s terms, as the Kremlin on Thursday said nyet.

“President Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, is visiting Moscow, and the Kremlin welcomed him with the back of its hand.  Yuri Ushakov, a close adviser to Vladimir Putin, told Russian television that a cease-fire would be ‘nothing other than a temporary breather for Ukrainian soldiers.’  He added, ‘our goal is long-term peaceful resolution... Steps that imitate peaceful actions are not needed.’

“Mr. Putin emerged later to sand the rougher edges off Mr. Ushakov, saying he really wants peace.  But it must be a ‘lasting peace,’ and not merely a temporary cease-fire.  Mr. Putin said there are ‘nuances’ that require ‘painstaking research,’ and those no doubt include conditions as part of a cease-fire that limit Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

“In other words, Mr. Putin wants the killing to continue until he gets closer to achieving his war aim of subjugating Ukraine.

“And killing he continues to do... Russian forces are also continuing to advance on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region in Russia....

“The Russians on Wednesday took the town of Sudzha, and Mr. Putin donned fatigues and visited the region to cheer on his troops.  Russia claims to have captured several hundred Ukrainian soldiers, and videos circulating on social media appear to show Russians executing unarmed Ukrainian prisoners.  Mr. Putin called the prisoners ‘terrorists under Russian law.’  This violates the Geneva Conventions since Ukrainian soldiers in uniform are legal combatants under the laws of war....

“As for Mr. Trump, he somehow detected good news in the Kremlin comments.  The President said at the White House that there was ‘a very promising statement’ from Mr. Putin but ‘it wasn’t complete.’  Merely uttering the word ‘peace’ isn’t promising.

“With his bludgeoning of Ukraine to make a deal without promises of U.S. aid or security, Mr. Trump has given Mr. Putin every incentive to keep the war going to put himself in the strongest possible position if there ever are serious peace talks. Does Mr. Trump have a Plan B beyond beating up Ukraine to make more unilateral concessions?

“Mr. Trump suggested last week that Mr. Putin ‘wants to get it ended,’ referring to the war, and that ‘in terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia.’  Nothing Mr. Putin has done or said since Mr. Trump began his war tilt toward Russia suggests that Mr. Putin has any such intention.”

---

Syria: When I posted last Friday afternoon, the death toll from the violence between the new Syrian army and gunmen from former President Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite community was about 70.  It then exploded, spiraling into widespread clashes across Syria’s coastal region, with monitoring groups saying hundreds of civilians had been killed; the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based war monitor, said 1,310 people were killed overall; 830 civilians, 230 members of the security forces and 250 pro-Assad fighters.

Interim President Aham Al-Sharaa said the retaliatory attacks against Alawite civilians and mistreatment of prisoners were isolated incidents and vowed to crack down on the perpetrators as he formed a committee to investigate the incident.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement issued Sunday that he urged Syrian authorities to “hold the perpetrators of these massacres” accountable.  Rubio said the U.S. “stands with Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities, including its Christian, Druze, Alawite, and Kurdish communities.”

Thousands of Syrians from the coastal area fled to neighboring Lebanon, mostly through unofficial crossings.  Lebanon is already hosting more than 755,000 registered Syrian refugees, with hundreds of thousands more believed to be unregistered.  Since the fall of Assad, the flow had begun to reverse, with the UN reporting that nearly 260,000 Syrian refugees have returned home since November, about half of them coming from Lebanon.

The interim government on Monday announced the end of the days-long military operation against the insurgents.

The Syrian government then signed an agreement to integrate a large U.S.-backed Kurdish-led militia into its military forces, a major step toward consolidating Damascus’ control over the country.

The agreement, which calls for the integration of all “civil and military institutions” in northeastern Syria, was signed by President al-Sharaa and the leader of the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, according to the two-page document published by state news agency SANA.

The deal includes a ceasefire and the merging of the SDF into the Syrian army.

Airports, border crossings and gas fields in the northeastern area of Syria controlled by the Kurdish-led force would also be brought under government control, the document says.  “The Kurdish community is an essential part of the Syrian state and the state will guarantee their citizenship and all constitutional rights,” it reads.

The agreement, if implemented, would remove one of the most important challenges facing the new Islamist-led government in Damascus, which took power in December after rebels toppled Assad.

The deal also comes more than a week after the jailed leader of the armed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) called for the organization to disband and disarm after decades of insurgency against Turkey from its bases in Iraq and adjacent countries. 

Today, top diplomats from Turkey were in Damascus for talks with Sharaa.

Israel/Hamas: Israel cut off its electricity supply to Gaza. The full effects of that are not immediately clear, but the territory’s desalination plants receive power for producing drinking water.

Sunday’s announcement came a week after Israel cut off all supplies of goods to the territory to over 2 million people. It has sought to press Hamas to accept an extension of the first phase of their ceasefire. That phase ended last weekend.  Israel wants Hamas to release half of the remaining hostages in return for a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.

Hamas has pressed to start negotiations on the ceasefire’s more difficult second phase instead, which would see the release of remaining hostages from Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and a lasting peace.  Hamas is believed to have 24 living hostages and the bodies of 35 others.

Israeli forces have withdrawn to buffer zones inside Gaza, hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have returned to northern Gaza for the first time since early in the war and hundreds of trucks of aid entered per day until Israel suspended supplies.

Today, Friday, Hamas said it has accepted a proposal from mediators to release one living American-Israeli hostage and the bodies of four dual nationals who had died in captivity.

But Israel cast doubt on the offer, and the mediators – Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. – didn’t confirm making the suggestion.

Iran: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he rejects a U.S. push for talks between the two countries because they would be aimed at imposing restrictions on Iranian missile range and its influence in the region.

Speaking to a group of officials on Saturday, Khamenei did not identify the United States by name but said a “bullying government” was being persistent in its push for talks.

“Their talks are not aimed at solving problems, (it’s) let’s talk to impose what we want on the other party that is sitting on the opposite side of the table.”

Khamenei’s remarks came a day after President Trump acknowledged sending a letter to Khamenei seeking a new deal with Tehran to restrain its rapidly advancing nuclear program and replace the nuclear deal he withdrew America from during his first term in office.

But then Iran said Sunday it would consider negotiations with the U.S. if the talks were confined to concerns about the militarization of its nuclear program.

In a statement posted on X, the country’s UN mission said: “If the objective of the negotiations is to address concerns vis-à-vis any potential militarization of Iran’s nuclear program, such discussions may be subject to consideration.”

Friday, China, Russia and Iran called for an end of “illegal and unilateral sanctions” as well as “threats of force” against Tehran following three-way talks in Beijing.

In a joint statement released by Chinese state media, the three countries said diplomatic engagement and dialogue based on “mutual respect” were the “only effective and viable options” for addressing the issue of Iran’s nuclear program.

They added that all parties should work to “eliminate the root causes” of the problem, saying: “The three countries stressed the need to end all illegal unilateral sanctions.  Relevant parties should...abandon sanctions pressure and threats of force.” [South China Morning Post]

China: A deputy to China’s national legislature warned that Taiwan may lose the previously offered high degree of autonomy under Beijing’s rule, if it is reunited with the mainland by force.

National People’s Congress deputy Li Yihu, who is also a leading Taiwan affairs specialist at Peking University, issued the warning last Friday during Beijing’s most important annual political gathering, known as the “two sessions.”

“If it is a peaceful reunification...the arrangements may be more flexible than those of the special administrative regions [Hong Kong and Macau],” Li told the Hong Kong-based China Review News agency.

“If Taiwan moves towards separation or resists reunification, and the mainland government still needs to complete reunification, the arrangement may be downgraded, even to the level of Taiwan province,” Li added.

Mainland leaders have long argued that the “one country, two systems” model, first applied when Hong Kong returned to mainland rule, would allow Taiwan to retain its existing system and enjoy a high degree of autonomy after unification with the mainland.

A 1971 United Nations resolution left no ambiguity on the one-China principle, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday as well, with Taiwan a province of China.

He also condemned as “absurd and dangerous” any argument to the contrary.

“Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory,” Wang told reporters on the sidelines of the two sessions.

Resolution 2758 of October 1971 recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate representative of China at the UN, while expelling “forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the UN and “all the organizations related to it.”

For Beijing, the resolution reinforced its one-China principle by acknowledging the PRC as the only legitimate representative of the sovereign state of China, which included Taiwan.

The shift in recognition reflected broader geopolitical realignments at the time with more countries recognizing Beijing over Taipei.

After quoting from the resolution on Friday, Wang said: “Once and for all, this resolution resolved the issue of the representation of China, including Taiwan, in the UN.

“[This] completely eliminated any possibility of ‘two Chinas,’ or ‘one China, one Taiwan.’”

The only reference to Taiwan in the UN was as “province of China,” Wang added.

Lashing out at attempts to use Taiwan to counter Beijing, Wang said: “Seeking Taiwan independence is doomed to backfire, and using Taiwan to contain China will be nothing but a futile attempt.  China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable.”

“Taiwan has never been a country; it was not in the past, and it will never be in the future,” he asserted.

“Allowing Taiwan independence undermines stability in the Taiwan Strait” and supporting Taiwan independence was akin to “playing with fire,” he added.

Only 10 smaller nations continue to maintain official diplomatic ties with the island. [South China Morning Post]

South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol was released from prison on Saturday as prosecutors complied with a court decision to overturn the arrest of the leader impeached for his shock martial law declaration.

So Yoon was able to await the separate verdict from the Constitutional Court on a parliamentary motion that suspended him from power in December from the comfort of his own home.  If his impeachment is confirmed, a snap election to replace him will follow in 60 days.

Yoon, 64, has denied wrongdoing, defending his actions as a desperate bid to deal with North Korean sympathizers trying to paralyze his administration.  He argued he deployed troops to the National Assembly to safeguard peace and order rather than to block lawmakers from voting to annul the martial law decree.

Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok has led the government as acting president since Yoon was suspended and his first stand-in, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, was also impeached.

North Korea: Pyongyang fired several ballistic missiles into the sea Monday, South Korea’s military said, hours after South Korean and U.S. troops kicked off their large annual combined drills, which the North views as an invasion rehearsal.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile firings, North Korea’s fifth missile launch event this year, were detected from the southwestern part of the country.  It called the weapons close-range but didn’t say how far they flew.

Earlier, South Korean and U.S. militaries began their annual Freedom Shield command post exercise.  North Korea’s Foreign Ministry warned Monday the latest training risks triggering “physical conflict” on the Korean Peninsula.  It also reiterated Kim Jong Un’s stated goals for a “radical growth” of his nuclear force to counter what he claims as growing threats posed by the U.S. and its Asian allies.

Saturday, North Korean state media announced Pyongyang was building its first nuclear-powered submarine to enhance its nuclear weapons abilities, and media showed Kim inspecting part of what appeared to be a new submarine larger than any owned by the country.

The announcement came as U.S. and South Korean officials fear that North Korea may be receiving technological help from Russia to help modernize its military in return for sending troops and conventional weapons to help in its war against Ukraine.

A nuclear-powered submarine, which can cover a long distance without resurfacing, would enhance North Korea’s ability to approach the U.S. without being detected, and to strike with nuclear missiles.

Greenland: In elections held Tuesday, voters unexpectedly picked a party backing a slower approach to independence as President Trump continues to talk of taking over the island.

The social liberal Demokraatit (sic) party (Democrats) emerged as the biggest winner with 29.9% of the ballots cast, adding more than 20 points from four years ago.

Naleraq (“Point of Orientation”), the party seeking the fastest breakup with Denmark, finished second, underscoring how split the population is on the topic.  The group came out with 24.5% of the vote – up from 12% in the prior election.

It’s expected that Demokraatit, which sees independence as a longer-term goal, will start coalition negotiations to form a governing majority in the coming days.

“There is a need for unity, so we will enter into negotiations with everyone,” party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen said during the election night coverage.  “Greenland needs to stand together in a time of great interest from the outside.”

All parties in the election are in favor of independence, but disagree on the how and when.  The new 31-member parliament will now be crucial in defining Greenland’s path to become its own nation, expanding from its current self-rule within the Kingdom of Denmark.

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen congratulated the Demokraatit party and said the future Greenlandic government would likely have to “deal with massive pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump.”

Pakistan: Insurgents who attacked a passenger train carrying 440 passengers in restive southwest Pakistan killed 21 hostages before security forces killed all 33 of the assailants, and all other passengers were rescued, officials said Wednesday.

Pakistan’s Information Minister said the separatist Baloch Liberation Army group was behind the attack, and that no passengers died because of the rescue operation, praising the military for “averting a potential catastrophe.”

Three soldiers who had been guarding the railroad track were also killed in the attack that began Tuesday.

Picture the attack began when the train was partially inside a tunnel, the militants blowing up the tracks, forcing the engine and nine coaches to stop.  Those poor passengers...imagine the terror of it all.

The BLA regularly targets Pakistani security forces and has also attacked civilians, including Chinese nationals among the thousands working on multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects in Balochistan, which borders Iran and Afghanistan.  The province is rich in oil and minerals and the separatists not only want greater autonomy from the government in Islamabad, but a larger share of the region’s natural resources.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 45% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 51% disapprove.  37% of independents approve (Feb. 3-16).

Rasmussen: 52% approve, 47% disapprove (March 14)....bucking the general trend of other surveys.

A new CNN poll of adults nationwide, conducted March 6-9, had 56% disapproving of President Trump’s handling of the economy.

Americans are divided over Trump’s performance so far in handling the federal budget and managing the federal government – 48% approve on each, with about half disapproving.

Trump’s overall job approval rating stands at 45%, with 54% disapproving, in line with the numbers he saw in March 2017 and matching his highest ratings for his first term in office.

Overall, 35% of Americans say things in the country are going well, a rise from 29% in January, reflecting a surge in positive sentiment within the GOP.

An 86% majority of Americans, including more than 3/4s of adults in each party, say that Trump is taking a completely different approach to presidential power in comparison to past presidents, with 49% calling this a bad thing and 37% saying it’s a good thing.  Just 14% say his approach to his second term has been generally in line with past presidents.

Just 35% of Americans express a positive view of Elon Musk, with 53% rating him negatively and 11% offering no opinion – making him both better known and more substantially unpopular than Vice President JD Vance (whom 33% of Americans rate favorably and 44% unfavorably, with 23% having no opinion.)

A new Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted March 11-12, puts Trump’s approval rating at 44%, unchanged from March 3-4.

But 57% of respondents, including one in three Republicans, said the president’s policies have been unsteady as his efforts to tax imports have set off a global trade war, when asked the question, “Are Trump’s moves to shake up the economy too erratic?”   32% disagree.

--Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Democrat, died Thursday from complications of cancer treatments, his office said.  He was 77.

Grijalva had represented southern Arizona in the House since 2003, serving 11 full terms. He had announced before the November election that this would be his final term in office.

Due to his cancer treatments, he had been increasingly absent from Congress, missing many votes in the latter half of 2024 and almost all votes in 2025, last voting on Jan. 3, the first day of this session.

But he’s the second Democratic member of Congress to die in the past two weeks, increasing the Republican majority in the House to 218-213.

Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, must kick-start the process of picking a successor, with a primary election to be held 120-133 days after a vacancy opens, and a general election 70-80 days after that.  So under this timeline, the seat won’t be filled before mid-September.

--Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D), a former Navy pilot who flew dozens of combat missions in the Middle East and took four NASA missions in space, was in Ukraine over the weekend and posted on X:

“What I saw proved to me we can’t give up on the Ukrainian people. Everyone wants this war to end, but any agreement has to protect Ukraine’s security and can’t be a giveaway to Putin.  Let me tell you about my trip and why it’s important and why it’s important we stand with Ukraine.”

Elon Musk replied: “You are a traitor.”

Sen. Kelly responded: “Traitor?  Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.”

Kelly then added: “He’s slashed and burned the federal government to make room for a giant tax cut for billionaires like himself,” referring to DOGE. “I’ve sworn an oath to this country, flown in combat, I served in the Navy for 25 years.  It appears to me the oath that Elon Musk stands by is the oath of billionaires, to make their lives easier, not the American people, not veterans.”

Separately, Musk claimed Monday that X was knocked offline by a “massive cyberattack” that originated in the “Ukraine area.”

“We’re not sure exactly what happened,” Musk told Fox Business’ Larry Kudlow about the apparent attack targeting his social media platform.

“But there was a massive cyber attack to try to bring down the X system, with IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area,” he added.

--From an exclusive, extensive report in the Wall Street Journal, Thursday:

“Representatives of President Trump’s family have held talks to take a financial stake in the U.S. arm of crypto exchange Biance, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would put Trump in business with the firm that pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating anti-money-laundering requirements.

“At the same time, Binance’s billionaire founder, Changpeng Zhao – who served four months in prison after pleading guilty to a related charge – has been pushing for the Trump administration to grant him a pardon, people familiar with the matter said. Zhao, widely known as CZ, remains Binance’s largest shareholder.

“The talks began after Binance reached out to allies of Trump last year offering to strike a business deal with the family as part of a plan to return the exiled company to the U.S.

“It is unclear what form the Trump family stake would take if the deal comes together or whether it would be contingent on a pardon.  The possibilities include the Trumps taking the stake or the deal going though World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency venture backed by the Trumps that launched in September, the people said....

“Trump has increasingly blurred the boundaries between the presidency and his business ventures.  His family has been profiting from his election victory, with first lady Melania Trump signing a $40 million documentary deal....

“But pursuing a business deal involving a felon seeking a pardon from his administration would be an unprecedented overlap of his business and the government.  A stake in Binance.US would also be a striking expansion of the family’s cryptocurrency endeavors as Trump signs a series of executive orders that benefit the industry....

“Since its formation last fall, World Liberty Financial has drawn criticism over its potential for foreign entities and those with business before the U.S. government to channel money to Trump and his family without public disclosure.”

--Patti Davis / Op-ed New York Times

“My father spoke only once to me about why he wanted to be president of the United States.  It was the night of his inauguration in 1981.  I had been assigned to one of his inaugural balls and was supposed to wait there for my parents to arrive.  After sitting onstage, on a metal folding chair with a crowd of people staring up at me for what felt like an hour, I broke the rules and left.  Lying awake in the Lincoln Bedroom, I hoped Lincoln’s ghost would visit me as he has been said to have visited others in the White House living quarters.  I had some serious questions for him.

“Late that night, my father came in to see me.  Sitting down on the bed, he commented on my early departure that evening and I apologized, although I think both of us knew I wasn’t really sorry.  Then he said that he knew his election was hard on everyone and would change everyone’s life.  But, he said: ‘I really believe I can make this world a safer, more peaceful place.  That’s why I ran for president.’

“When he left and the stillness of Lincoln’s bedroom folded around me, with all of its history and stories, I was struck by the fact that he spoke about the world, not just America.

“I’ve thought about that night a lot lately, as America becomes more isolated, as we back away from allies and tensions grow.  I’ve thought also about the lessons my father imparted to me as a child.  He taught me at an early age about the Holocaust and that no country is immune to horrors like that.  He told me that America’s democracy, while strong, is also fragile, and to remain strong, we had to recognize that.  He believed our democracy was a ‘grand experiment,’ and as such it should be treated carefully.  Those conversations also trail behind me these days, making me wish my father’s ghost would visit just as I’d wished Lincoln’s ghost would appear to me in the White House.

“So often these days, people will tell me that even though they didn’t support my father when he was in office, now they miss him.  Me too, I always tell them... (Even) in my public disagreements with his policies, I never doubted his motivations.  I knew he wanted America to be a strong partner in the world, bonding with other countries to defeat tyranny and aggression....

“After President Trump’s speech to Congress and the nation on Tuesday night, Senator Elissa Slotkin gave the Democratic response, in which she mentioned Mr. Trump’s use of my father’s phrase ‘peace through strength.’  She said that Ronald Reagan is probably rolling in his grave. My wish is that he would whisper from the grave and remind those in power that America is supposed to be a beacon to guide others, to shine brightly for them, a country that reaches beyond its own borders to help those in need and make this world a little safer, a little stronger. He really did see us as a shining city on the hill – a place that other countries looked to and trusted.  A place that shared its light and its strengths, and in doing so, became stronger.”

--A 35-minute interview Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health and human services secretary, gave to Fox News right before President Trump’s address to Congress, with snippets released at the time, but the full version later, is being parsed, and it’s clear the guy is nuts.

Great, let’s eat healthier.  No problem there.  But he outlined a strategy for containing the measles outbreak in West Texas that strayed far from mainstream science, relying heavily on fringe theories about prevention and treatments.

He issued a muffled call for vaccinations in the affected community, but said the choice was a personal one.  He suggested the risks of immunization have been underestimated, contrary to extensive research.

He asserted that natural immunity to measles, gained through infection, somehow also protected against cancer and heart disease, a claim not supported by research.

He cheered on questionable treatments like cod liver oil and said that local doctors had achieved “almost miraculous and instantaneous” recoveries with steroids or antibiotics.

As for the west Texas and New Mexico outbreak, we had an update this afternoon and known infections in the two states hit 294 since late January.

Cases in Texas rose to 259 from 198 on March 7 and hospitalizations rose to 34 from 23.

Cases rose in New Mexico rose from 30 to 35.

We have already had more measles cases this year than in all of last year in the United States.

I didn’t realize Canada has now had 350 confirmed cases, as of Thursday, a jump of 173 just since Feb. 27.  Thirty-one have been hospitalized.

I also saw a story that public health officials warned a person infected with measles, who was unvaccinated, had attended a recent Montreal Canadiens- Buffalo Sabres hockey game and they are frantically attempting to let everyone know seated in various sections. 

--Citing “intolerable risk,” federal crash investigators on Tuesday recommended closing part of a helicopter route near Washington’s Reagan National Airport when planes are using the runway involved in a Jan. 29 midair collision between an airliner and an Army helicopter that killed 67 people.

The National Transportation Safety Board said the separation between helicopters and jets in the area was insufficient and increased the “chances of a midair collision.”

Jennifer Homendy, the board’s chair, said the FAA could have used the same data her investigators relied on to identify the risk and examine the helicopter routes before the crash occurred.

“It does make me angry, but it also makes me feel incredibly devastated for families that are grieving because they lost loved ones,” Homendy said.

The urgent safety recommendation came as the board released its preliminary report into the deadly collision, but it does not pinpoint specific causes, which may take a year or more to nail down.

--We note the passing of a Great American, longtime Republican senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming.  He was 93.

Simpson championed bipartisan solutions and steadfastly advocated for a moderate blend of conservatism.

At 6-foot-7, and with a blunt manner, Simpson literally towered over the Senate, utilizing his signature candor in epic legislative battles.  He always injected a healthy dose of humor to his work.  “In your country club, your church and business, about 15% of the people are screwballs, lightweights and boobs, and you would not want those people unrepresented in Congress,” he once said.

Simpson largely aligned with his party on key votes and championed GOP prescriptions for social welfare rollbacks, immigration and foreign policy, but at the same time he would cross party lines on issues such as abortion rights and same-sex marriage, which he was an early advocate of in the GOP.  “I’ve worked very closely with the gay-lesbian community; we’re all human beings, for God’s sake,” he said in 2008.

He also believed in federal support for the arts.  “If you’re just interested in politics alone, it’s barbaric.  That won’t keep you alive,” he once noted.

Simpson’s wife, Ann, of 70 years survives him, along with three children.

--Finally, the scheduled SpaceX rocket and Dragon spacecraft mission that was to bring back NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore was scrubbed Wednesday due to a ground issue...but in a few hours they are trying again.

A replacement crew of four is to replace them on the International Space Station.   If successful today, Suni and Butch would return midweek.  That will be a needed heartwarming moment.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini!

God bless America.

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Gold $2992...broke through $3000 for the first time ever today...
Oil $67.23...first up week in eight, albeit just a slight increase...

Bitcoin: $84,628 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]...had hit $77,500 Monday...

Regular Gas: $3.08; Diesel: $3.61 [$3.41 - $4.03 yr. ago]

Returns for the week, 3/10-3/14

Dow Jones  -3.1%  [41488]
S&P 500  -2.3%  [5638]
S&P MidCap  -2.0%
Russell 2000  -1.5%
Nasdaq  -2.4%  [17754]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-3/14/25

Dow Jones  -2.5%
S&P 500  -4.1%
S&P MidCap  -6.2%
Russell 2000  -8.3%
Nasdaq  -8.1%

Bulls 27.6...lowest since Fall of 2022
Bears 34.5...highest since the same period...normally a screaming ‘buy’ signal for the contrarian indicator. [Reminder, the “Investors Intelligence” indicator is released on Wednesdays, and really represents the opinions of financial newswriter, strategist types from the preceding week.]

Hang in there.  March Madness is here for you college hoops fans, and The Players Championship in golf...and, soon...The Masters, a tradition unlike any other...on CBS....

Brian Trumbore

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