Week in Review

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Week in Review

07/20/2024

For the week 7/15-7/19

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,318

When I awoke very early this morning (little sleep after watching Trump’s speech) and turned the computer on and saw the news on the television, it was largely headlines about the global computer outage, the largest global IT outage in history, with chaos at the airports, particularly Berlin, Zurich, Istanbul and Amsterdam in Europe, and scores of airports in the U.S., leading to a slew of cancellations and delays around the world.

[A staggering 900 flights into and out of Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport were cancelled or delayed.]

As I go to post, total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States totaled over 2,500.  A lot of serious disruptions in vacation plans.  I feel for everyone in that position.

It turns out a single update from cybersecurity-software company CrowdStrike (whose shares fell 11%) caused the outages for millions of users of Microsoft Windows devices worldwide.  CrowdStrike’s CEO said the issue had been identified and a fix deployed, adding that “this is not a security incident or cyberattack,” but leaving all of us to wonder, what does happen when China, or another malign force, decides to attack our network?

The outage knocked out operations for banks, media companies, emergency services and medical systems, on top of the airline issues.  All over a simple update.

Selfishly, I was scared to open a key Microsoft service I require to post this column, but there were no issues.

As for the length of this WIR, it was a historical week and it’s what I do...write the only definitive history of our times, both global financial markets and geopolitics.  I want certain items included for the archives and history.

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I get into President Biden’s week down below in “Random Musings,” but with each appearance or interview it becomes even more clear he must exit the race.

For example, there is a YouTube interview between Biden and Speedy Norman (easy to find), where Biden says, “In 2020 when Barack asked me to be vice president...”  Biden also repeats the falsehood that inflation was 9% when he took office.  It was 1.4%.  It hit 9.1% in June 2022.  Nothing ticks me off more than a lie involving statistics.

Equally disastrous were the reports that leaders of the Democratic National Committee were  moving to confirm President Biden as the party’s nominee before the end of July, which they felt would quiet disagreement among Democrats about Biden’s viability as a candidate.

The DNC then said such plans were on hold after this created an uproar.

As the New York Times reported, since the debate, Biden’s inner circle has shrunk to Jill, Hunter, and a tiny group of loyalists, including longtime friend, Mike Donilon, and Steve Ricchetti. 

The president then tested positive for Covid while on a trip to Las Vegas and flew back to Rehoboth, Del., to isolate as the pressure grew for him to withdraw.  His symptoms were reported to be mild.

Friday, Biden’s campaign chairwoman, Jennifer O’Malley, went on “Morning Joe” to state: “Joe Biden is more committed than ever to beat Donald Trump, and we believe on this campaign we are built for the close election that we’re in and we see the path forward.”

‘Forward’ for how long, Ms. O’Malley?  Under our system, we elect a president for four years, or haven’t you figured that out yet....

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Assassination Attempt...Reaction...

Less than ten minutes into his speech at a large political rally Saturday evening in Butler, Pa., shots rang out and former President Donald Trump was hit by a bullet that pierced his ear, an inch from grievously wounding or killing him.  Secret Service agents immediately swarmed and encircled Trump, who when he got up, blood on the right side of his face, raised his fist defiantly and scowled, mouthing: “Fight. Fight. Fight.”

It's an iconic image that will be seared in America’s memory bank for decades to come.

Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley noted: “There’s something in the American spirit that likes seeing fortitude and courage under pressure and the fact that Trump held his fist up high will become a new symbol.  By surviving an attempted assassination, you become a martyr, because you get a groundswell of public sympathy.”

Tragically, a spectator was killed, two others critically injured, just for being there...to be part of a happening and the democratic process.

The Secret Service immediately identified where the shooter was and neutralized him, a 20-year-old from the Butler-Pittsburgh area.  There are serious questions to be answered as to how the individual got on the roof, within rifle shot of the stage.  That’s for the FBI and Secret Service to determine, with congressional oversight.  Witnesses were trying to point out the shooter’s location beforehand and there was a striking failure to respond properly.

We thank God Donald Trump wasn’t seriously hurt, otherwise, America would have gone up in flames last Saturday night and Sunday.

Saturday night, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

“I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of Law Enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania.  Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the Rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured. It is incredible that such an act can take place in our Country.  Nothing is known at this time about the shooter, who is now dead.  I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin.  Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening.  GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

Trump, Sunday morning, then wrote:

“Thank you to everyone for your thoughts and prayers yesterday, as it was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening.  We will FEAR NOT, but instead remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness.  Our love goes out to the other victims and their families. We pray for the recovery of those who were wounded, and hold in our hearts the memory of the citizen who was so horribly killed. In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win.  I truly love our Country, and love you all, and look forward to speaking to our Great Nation this week from Wisconsin.”

“There is no place in America for this kind of violence,” President Biden said in remarks from the Rehoboth Beach, Del., police department.  “We must unite as one nation to condemn it.  It’s sick. ...It cannot be like this. We cannot condone this.”

But speaking to donors the previous Monday on a private phone call, Biden had said it was time to train his focus on Trump.

“I have one job, and that’s to beat Donald Trump,” he said.  “I’m absolutely certain I’m the best person to be able to do that.  So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bull’s eye.”

In the immediate aftermath of the attempt on Trump’s life, some Republicans pounced on the above statement.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) wrote on social media that “Joe Biden sent the orders.”

House and Senate leadership, though, was appropriately measured and supportive of Trump.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said he was sending his “thoughts and prayers....

“I am thankful for the decisive law enforcement response. America is a democracy.  Political violence of any kind is never acceptable,” he posted on X.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

“This horrific act of political violence at a peaceful campaign rally has no place in this country and should be unanimously and forcefully condemned,” Johnson tweeted.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called the shooting “despicable.”

“Tonight, all Americans are grateful that President Trump appears to be fine after a despicable attack on a peaceful rally,” he tweeted.  “We appreciate the swift work of the Secret Service and other law enforcement.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he was “relieved” that Trump was declared safe.

“I am horrified by what happened at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania and relieved that former President Trump is safe,” Schumer posted on X.  “Political violence has no place in our country.”

But the initial reaction across the country was more as the New York Times’ Peter Baker described it the day after:

“When President Ronald Reagan was shot by an attention-seeking drifter in 1981, the country united behind its injured leader. The teary-eyed Democratic speaker of the House, Thomas P. O’Neill Jr., went to the hospital room of the Republican president, held his hands, kissed his head and got on his knees to pray for him.

“But the assassination attempt against former President Donald J. Trump seems more likely to tear America further apart than to bring it together. Within minutes of the shooting, the air was filled with anger, bitterness, suspicion and recrimination.  Fingers were pointed, conspiracy theories advanced and a country already bristling with animosity fractured even more.”

World Reaction....

--British Prime Minister Keir Starmer: “I am appalled by the shocking scenes at President Trump’s rally and we send him and his family our best wishes.  Political violence in any form has no place in our societies and my thoughts are with all the victims of this attack.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: “I’m sickened by the shooting at former President Trump.  It cannot be overstated, political violence is never acceptable.  My thoughts are with former President Trump, those at the event, and all Americans.”

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida: “We must stand firm against any form of violence that  challenges democracy. I pray for former President Trump’s speedy recovery.”

French President Emmanuel Macron: “My thoughts are with President Donald Trump, the victim of an assassination attempt. I send him my wishes for a speedy recovery. A spectator has died, several are injured.  It is a tragedy for our democracies. Frances shares the shock and indignation of the American people.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz: “The attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is despicable. I wish him a speedy recovery.  My thoughts are also with the people who were affected by the attack.  Such acts of violence threaten democracy.”

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: “In political debate, all over the world, there are limits that should never be crossed.  It is a warning to everyone, regardless of political affiliation, to restore dignity and honor to politics, against all forms of hatred and violence, and for the good of our democracies.  Solidarity with Donald Trump, his supporters and the injured, and my heartfelt condolences for the victim and his family.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “I am appalled to learn about the shooting of former U.S. President Donald Trump at his rally in Pennsylvania.  Such violence has no justification and no place anywhere in the world.  Never should violence prevail... I wish America emerges stronger from this.”

--The Kremlin weighed in on Sunday, saying it did not believe the U.S. administration was responsible for Saturday’s assassination attempt, but accused it of creating an atmosphere that provoked the attack.

“After numerous attempts to remove candidate Trump from the political arena – using first legal tools, the courts, prosecutors, attempts to politically discredit and compromise the candidate – it was obvious to all outside observers that his life was in danger,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, wrote on Telegram that Trump’s position on Ukraine could not be completely ruled out as a reason for the attack.  “Trump is one of the few Western politicians who has openly spoken about the need to stop sponsoring military action,” Volodin said.  Russia’s foreign ministry used the shooting to urge Washington to stop funding Ukraine’s military and concentrate on improving domestic law enforcement instead.

--Opinion....

Editorial / Washington Post

“Encouragingly, leaders of both political parties, including some with whom Mr. Trump has clashed, swiftly and unequivocally condemned the attack.  ‘We cannot be like this,’ said President Biden.  Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) called it ‘a heinous and evil act.’

“We join in those sentiments.

“The darkest hours of American history, the ones shadowed by political violence, remind us that incitement and hatred must be constantly challenged and never tolerated.  The privileges of free and open speech, the glory of wide-open campaign rallies and impassioned politicking, depend on an atmosphere free of fear and intimidation.

“So what do we want to do?

“In this moment, we have to recognize that we have all been touched by toxic politics – regardless of our beliefs or where we fall on an ideological spectrum.

“Can this, then, be a moment to pause and rediscover our better selves? To hear our inner voices, as clearly as we heard those shots? Americans, what do we want to be?

“It’s not up to politicians, or editorial pages.

“The responsibility is ours, as neighbors and citizens.

“In fact, this republic is ours, as Benjamin Franklin said, ‘if we can keep it.’

“Let us begin today.”

Editorial / New York Times

“It is now incumbent on political leaders of both parties, and on Americans individually and collectively, to resist a slide into further violence and the type of extremist language that fuels it. Saturday’s attack should not be taken as a provocation or a justification.

“Americans also must be cleareyed about the challenge that is confronting this nation.  Saturday’s events cannot be written off as an aberration.  Violence is infecting and inflecting American political life.

“Acts of violence have long shadowed American democracy, but they have loomed larger and darker of late.  Cultural and political polarization, the ubiquity of guns and the radicalizing power of the internet have all been contributing factors... This high-stakes presidential election is further straining the nation’s commitment to the peaceful resolution of political differences.

“Democracy requires partisans to accept that the process is more important than the results.  Even before Saturday’s events, there were worrying signs that many Americans are failing that essential test.  In a survey conducted last month by the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, 10 percent of respondents agreed that the use of force was justified to prevent Mr. Trump from becoming president, and 7 percent said the use of force was justified to return Mr. Trump to the presidency.

“Mr. Trump’s political agenda cannot and must not be opposed by violence. It cannot and must not be pursued through violence.

“The attack on Saturday was a tragedy. The challenge now confronting Americans is to prevent this moment from becoming the beginning of a greater tragedy.

“This election must be resolved by the votes Americans will cast.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday evening is a horrific moment for America that could have been much worse.  But we can’t say it comes as a complete surprise.  Political hostility and hateful rhetoric have been rising to a decibel level that far too often in the American past has led to violence and attempted murder.  Some of us still remember 1968 all too well.

“It’s nothing short of miraculous that Mr. Trump avoided death by a literal inch.  The former President can’t help but think that Providence played some role in sparing him, as Ronald Reagan is said to have thought after he was shot and survived in 1981. The country was spared, too, from what could have been a furious cycle of retribution....

“President Biden spoke to the country from his weekend home in Delaware, as he should have done, and he properly denounced ‘political violence.’  So did leaders of both political parties.  But the statements will amount to little if they aren’t followed with a change in behavior and rhetoric.

“The shooter alone is responsible for his actions. But leaders on both sides need to stop describing the stakes of the election in apocalyptic terms.  Democracy won’t end if one or the other candidate is elected.  Fascism is not aborning if Mr. Trump wins, unless you have little faith in American institutions.

“We agree with former Attorney General Bill Barr’s statement Saturday night: ‘The Democrats have to stop their grossly irresponsible talk about Trump being an existential threat to democracy – he is not.’

“One great risk is that the shooting in Butler, Pa., will cause some on the right to seek violent revenge. This is where Mr. Trump and the Republicans have an obligation – and a political opportunity – at their convention in Milwaukee and through November.

“If they weren’t already, Americans after Saturday will be looking for stable, reassuring leadership. The photo of Mr. Trump raising his fist as he was led off stage by the Secret Service with a bloody face was a show of personal fortitude that will echo through the campaign.  No one doubts his willingness to fight, and his initial statement Saturday night was a notable and encouraging show of restraint and gratitude.

“His opportunity now is to present himself as someone who can rise above the attack on his life and unite the country.  He will make a mistake if he blames Democrats for the assassination attempt.

“He will win over more Americans if he tells his followers that they need to fight peacefully and within the system.  If the Trump campaign is smart, and thinking about the country as well as the election, it will make the theme of Milwaukee a call to political unity and the better angels of American nature.

“That leaves plenty of room for criticizing Democrats and their failed policies. But the country wants civil disagreement and discourse, not civil war.

“The near assassination of Donald Trump could be a moment that catalyzes more hatred and an even worse cycle of violence. If that is how it goes, God help us.

“Or it could be a redemptive moment that leads to introspection and political debate that is fierce but not cast as Armageddon. The country was spared the worst on Saturday, and this is a chance to pull out of a partisan death spiral.  That is the leadership Americans are desperate to see.”

I liked the comments of Team USA men’s basketball coach Steve Kerr, speaking from Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, where the team is playing exhibition games.  Recall, Kerr lost his father to an assassination in Beirut, Lebanon in 1984.

“This is a time where we feel very proud to represent our country wearing USA on our chest, competing in the Olympics,” Kerr said.  “We’ve talked to the players about how important it is to show the best version of us as human beings to represent our country in a respectful, dignified manner.  It makes you want to do that even more so, because this is really shameful for us to sit here and think about what happened and what’s going on in our country.”

Gerard Baker / Wall Street Journal

“‘Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result.’ Winston Churchill’s observation is a useful place to start in attempting to interpret the consequences of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump.

“The shot that nearly killed the former president wasn’t completely without result, but mercifully the flesh wound it inflicted seems to have left Mr. Trump with no lasting physical damage. Its mental and political ramifications – for him and for the country at large – are sure to be greater....

“First, we should resist the temptation to ascribe Mr. Trump’s survival to divine intervention – and to interpret it as some providential endorsement of the Republican nominee.

“Some Republicans have already gone this route.  ‘I personally believe that God intervened today, not just on behalf of President Trump but on behalf of our country,’ Vivek Ramaswamy said in a Fox News interview.

“No one should deny Mt. Trump his understandable sense of providentially supplied deliverance.  People of faith, and even sometimes those of no prior faith, are often convinced by near-death experiences that they have been preserved by some higher spiritual power.

“But while those of us who call ourselves believers accept the idea of divine intervention in human affairs – otherwise why pray? – there is a dangerous difference between belief that divine mercy can work in seemingly random ways and thinking that the Father of the universe stopped by a Pennsylvania field to bestow eternal blessings on the MAGA agenda.

“If you doubt that, consider the six million Jews who died in the Holocaust and the countless others murdered by the Nazis, and ask if God intervened on numerous occasions to spare Adolf Hitler from the various bombs and bullets that could have prevented or mitigated that atrocity.  Let’s leave God’s plans to himself for now.

“The next thing we should resist is conspiracy theorizing. Again, in the first 24 hours after the shooting, some Republicans went there.  ‘Joe Biden sent the orders,’ Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia tweeted.

“We’ve come to expect this kind of noise from the farmyard corner of Congress.  More troubling was Elon Musk, who posted on his own platform that this might have been a state-sponsored act: ‘Extreme incompetence or it was deliberate.’

“It is a symptom of how corroded the basis of our common epistemological ground has become that a man who has become one of the richest in the history of the planet by applying reason, logic and science to human challenges, should be among the first to postulate emotionally generated theories built on cloud castles and mental effluent....

“A third lesson will be more controversial to some: Avoid the idea that, even if they didn’t actually pull the trigger, Democrats are somehow to blame because of their rhetoric.

“It’s true that the language about Mr. Trump and the Republicans is often absurdly overblown: the recent ululations about Project 2025 are a case in point.  But it must be within the bounds of acceptable political discourse to claim that Mr. Trump represents a threat to democracy, not least because some of his behavior and rhetoric support the claim.  So is it acceptable for Mr. Trump and Republicans to say that President Biden and the Democrats are destroying America without it being interpreted as a signal to anyone with a rifle to take out the Democratic candidate.

“If there is room for emotional restraint in the aftermath of this horror, there is also reason to hope for a small movement toward de-escalating the mutual loathing to which so many Americans have fallen prey....

“If we can channel Mr. Trump’s personal courage, the nation’s unified horror at this latest descent into anarchy, and the common creeping sensation we all must have of a nation edging ever closer to the abyss, we might remind ourselves that some things really are more important than indulging the destructive pleasure so many seem to feel at nursing their fetid grievances.”

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“When they trundled [a wounded Donald Trump] off and he threw up his fist, pumped it at the crowd and shouted, ‘Fight,’ my relative said, ‘Well, that’s over.’  Meaning the election.  Meaning you don’t give America an image like that and go on to lose, you give America an image like that and it enters political mythology forever.

“Mr. Trump had heard at least one shot, maybe a few. One grazed his ear. He hit the deck, was lifted up in shock, pale.  He should have been swiftly rushed from the stage. But no, this is the great genius of American political theater and the reflex kicked in, the same reflex that kicked in after he had Covid and was returned to the White House from the hospital, and wanted to pose on the White House balcony in a Superman shirt with a big S, and somebody talked him out of it. So too at the rally Saturday – he got to his feet, he didn’t wipe the blood from his face, he wanted you to see and understand the whole picture. He got his look of tough-guy fury, the one he showed for weeks walking into court in New York, the one on the mug shot.  He raised that fist, pumped it, shouted ‘Fight,’ as part of the crowd began to chant ‘U.S.A.! U.S.A.!’

“It was epic.  Whatever you feel about him, whatever your stand, grant him one of the great gangsta moves of American political history....

“Beyond all that is the crushing knowledge that this is bad for America, bad for its morale, for its confidence in the idea of its continuance. And of course it is terrible in the eyes of the world, more proof that we can’t hold it together.  Europe was asleep when it happened, it was just after midnight in Paris and Berlin, and when they woke up to the news it was clear that the target of the assassination attempt wasn’t seriously wounded and had gone home, and the would-be assassin dead.  Still, an American living in England wrote from there, crestfallen: ‘Our beautiful country, in the gutter.’

“That was a better, truer sentiment than the responses of our political leaders, whose reactions have seemed so harrowingly pro forma.  ‘Violence has no place in our country.’  They always say those rote and vacuous words. But it does have a place here, it claimed it long ago; that’s our problem. As I write, they are calling the 20-year-old would-be assassin ‘a loner.’ They have been calling assassins and mass murderers loners since I was a child, since Lee Harvey Oswald.  For loners, they sure are a big group....

“If you are anti-Trump, here is something deserving praise: His supporters left that rally last night shaken and full of woe and yet many stopped, kindly, to tell reporters what they saw and experienced, so that everyone might better understand what had transpired. It was moving how generous and patient they were, though they’d witnessed something that shook their souls.  [Ed. that’s part of western Pennsylvania...as I’ve always said, the warmest, most generous people in the country.]

“Mr. Trump says rough things and rough things are said about him. He does rough things, too, and many of his enemies truly hate him and are accused of trying to thwart him in ways just and unjust.

“Can we hope for any improvement?  Any amelioration of the bile?  Maybe for a short term. The long term? I don’t know.  But shocks like an assassination attempt can reorder things in the political culture at least for a while.  When something like this happens – when you are shot, and if you’d turned an inch or two this way and not that way, that was the difference between a grazing wound and death – what impact does that have? How do you feel when you see someone you hate assaulted and hurt by a nut with a gun at a public meeting? Does it feel good, or more like a caution, a warning?

“We’re all at least united in one hope: that what happened last night will be the worst thing that happens in the 2024 campaign.”

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The Secret Service blamed local police for failing to secure the rooftop from which gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks attempted to assassinate Trump, insisting it was outside of the perimeter the federal agency was tasked with protecting, and was the responsibility of local Pennsylvania police, a Secret Service representative said, according to the New York Times.

But neighbors living near Butler Farm Show Grounds told the New York Post they were never visited by any law enforcement agencies – local or federal – in the days before or during the rally.

The Secret Service said it did not sweep the building the shooter used, according to multiple reports.

Video shows bystanders pointing out the man on the roof, one man shouting “Officer! Officer!” as others pointed toward the building. “He’s on the roof!” a woman says.

We later learned local police who were assigned by the Secret Service to help spot threats in the crowd were inside the building where the gunman had positioned himself on the roof.  One report has the police radioing a Secret Service command post to alert them.  As we also now know, one police officer climbed up and got a look of the shooter, but he was grabbing the roof and couldn’t draw his weapon.

All the details need to be ferreted out, but it seems there were two minutes from when the shooter was spotted with a gun before he was able to get his shots off and why wasn’t Trump whisked off the stage until the gunman had been neutralized?

Sunday evening, in his third appearance since the incident, and just the third Oval Office address of his presidency, President Biden urged Americans to “take a step back” and warned that “political rhetoric in this country has gotten very heated.”

“No matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend into violence,” Biden said.

“In America, we resolve our differences at the ballot box,” he said.  “At the ballot box. Not with bullets.”

Of course, in true Biden fashion these days, he kept uttering “battle box.”

Trump, in an interview Sunday with the Washington Examiner, said he felt he had been saved “by luck or by God.”

“I’m supposed to be dead, I’m not supposed to be here,” he said.

Trump described the moment he looked up at the crowd after realizing he had been shot.

“The energy coming from the people there in that moment, they just stood there. It’s hard to describe what that felt like, but I knew the world was looking.

“I knew that history would judge this, and I knew I had to let them know we are OK,” he told the publication.

Trump vowed that as to his convention appearance on Thursday, “Honestly, it’s going to be a whole different speech now. It is a chance to bring the country together.”

Monday, the former president received a gift on the judicial front, a stunning ruling, as U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon of Florida dismissed the criminal case accusing Donald Trump of illegally keeping classified documents after leaving office, handing the Republican former president another major legal victory.

Judge Cannon, who was appointed to the bench by Trump, ruled that Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is leading the prosecution, was unlawfully appointed to his role and did not have the authority to bring the case.

The judge found that Attorney General Merrick Garland, who named Smith in 2022 to oversee investigations involving Trump, did not have the authority “to appoint a federal officer with the kind of prosecutorial power wielded by Special Counsel Smith.”

Cannon also found that Smith’s investigation has been improperly funded through a permanent and unlimited fund Congress set aside in the 1980s for independent investigations.

So, this decision follows the Supreme Court ruling on July 1 that Trump cannot be prosecuted for actions that were within his constitutional powers as president – a landmark decision recognizing for the first time any form of presidential immunity from prosecution.  And that ruling involved charges emanating from Smith’s case against Trump in Washington involving Jan. 6 and efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Smith then appealed. Courts in other cases have upheld the ability of the Justice Department to appoint special counsels to handle certain investigations.

Trump then called for the dismissal of all four criminal cases against him.  “Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement: “This breathtakingly misguided ruling flies in the face of long-accepted practice and repetitive judicial precedence.  It is wrong on the law and must be appealed immediately.  This is furth evidence that Judge Cannon cannot handle this case impartially and must be reassigned.”

The Republican National Convention also started Monday, and former president Trump announced that Ohio Senator J.D. Vance would be his running mate.

Vance is just 39, he served in the Marine Corps, including a tour in Iraq, graduated from Ohio State University and Yale Law School before writing a 2016 best-selling memoir about growing up in a declining steel town with a mother addicted to drugs, “Hillbilly Elegy,” that made him famous.

He’s very articulate, a great debater (it was announced Wednesday he will debate Vice President Kamala Harris on Aug. 12...maybe), and charismatic.

But one country that has to be worried sick about the selection of Vance is Ukraine.  Vance once told Steve Bannon: “I got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”

David French / New York Times:

“A century from now, historians will be talking about the war in Ukraine. Trump’s choice sends a message to America’s allies, especially Ukraine, that they might find themselves facing Russia largely on their own.  To the extent that Vance will have a real voice in the administration (and we should never assume that of any vice president), he’ll be pushing Trump away from Ukraine.  He’ll be a China hawk, but that’s cold comfort to the Ukrainian people or to the European alliance.”

President Biden called Vance “a clone of Trump on the issues” and that he did not “see any difference” between them.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Vice President J.D. Vance?  Donald Trump on Monday named the first-term Ohio Senator as his 2024 running mate, and it’s a curious choice: Mr. Vance isn’t from a swing state, and he won’t do much to broaden the MAGA coalition.  He opposes free-market policies Mr. Trump will need for economic renewal. And would Mr. Vance be ready to lead the country if the worst happened? ....

“The contrast with his last VP is impossible to miss. When he ran for President in 2016, many Republicans didn’t trust Mr. Trump, a political novice and ex-Democrat.  One way Mr. Trump addressed this liability, on both politics and policy, was by selecting Mike Pence, an experienced Reaganite who’d spent 12 years in the House and four as Indiana Governor.  Mr. Pence helped Mr. Trump win the White House and then staff his Administration.

“Mr. Vance could hardly be more different.  A Vice President must be ready to sit down at the big desk at a moment’s notice, and a scary reminder came when Mr. Trump survived an assassination attempt by perhaps an inch.  Mr. Vance is intelligent and overcame a difficult upbringing that testified to his work ethic.  But the Senator is a 39-year-old man who was sworn into his first public office in 2023.  Remember how Republicans poked Barack Obama for seeking the Presidency after a mere two years in the Senate?

“Short though it might be, Mr. Vance’s public record is defined by his political migration.  He came to prominence in 2016 after publishing a bestselling memoir, ‘Hillbilly Elegy,’ which told a story of the Rust Belt that was more about cultural dysfunction than globalization and economic dislocation.

“‘The Japanese are our friends now,’ he recalls his grandfather telling him, as Kawasaki tied up with a company called Armco that had a steel mill in his Ohio hometown.  Mr. Vance narrates: ‘If companies like Armco were going to survive, they would have to retool.  Kawasaki gave Armco a chance, and Middletown’s flagship company probably would not have survived without it.’  This was the J.D. Vance who graduated from Yale Law, worked in venture capital, and compared Mr. Trump’s 2016 appeal to ‘cultural heroin.’

“J.D. Vance the Ohio politician, however, opposes Nippon Steel’s recent offer to buy and invest in U.S. Steel.  In December he signed a letter that urged Washington to block the deal and called Nippon ‘a company whose allegiances clearly lie with a foreign state.’  But Japan is an ally and American workers need investment, foreign or domestic.  Mr. Vance visited a United Auto Workers picket line last year and proposed a tax credit of up to $7,500 for gas vehicles assembled in the U.S.  He might claim he’s pro-worker, but he has turned pro-union....

“The foreign policy concerns are also significant.  Mr. Vance has opposed aid to Ukraine... Perhaps he will shed his isolationist impulses in office, but they’re worrisome....

“Mr. Trump’s choice...suggests he’s so confident in his electoral prospects that he didn’t need a running mate to reach swing voters.  Perhaps he’s right, though we suspect the White House is relieved he didn’t choose a more experienced and reassuring political figure.”

George Will / Washington Post

“Vance embodies the serrated edge of MAGA politics.  He checks many boxes of fealty, from praising a favorite of ‘national conservatives,’ Hungary’s autocrat, Viktor Orban, to what Vance delicately calls ‘the post-2020 thing’:  He says there should have been ‘alternative slates of electors’ to force a Jan. 6 debate on whether the election was stolen. This counts as MAGA moderation.

“Trump reportedly thinks the Ohio senator’s beard makes him look like ‘a young Abraham Lincoln.’...It is highly unlikely that Vance, a rhetorical brawler in the running mate tradition of Richard M. Nixon in 1960 and Spiro Agnew in 1968, has Lincoln’s ameliorative instincts.  (‘We are not enemies, but friends.  We must not be enemies’; ‘With malice toward none....’)”

Editorial / Washington Post

“Just as many Americans hold out hope that Mr. Trump, in the wake of the assassination attempt, will look toward the country’s better angels, it’s possible that Mr. Vance will evolve with him, and chart a constructive path.

“There is no mistaking, though, that his nomination marks a significant turn in Republican orthodoxy. Just two years ago, Mr. Vance struggled to raise money during his Senate bid because he attacked the GOP establishment. He underperformed Mr. Trump’s 2020 Ohio margin of victory, and his candidacy required the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to spend tens of millions more dollars than planned to hold the seat.

“Mr. McConnell has been a champion of U.S. global leadership and support for Ukraine.  In a reflection of how far the party has drifted from the values of Eisenhower, Mr. McConnell was booed loudly on the floor of the GOP convention Monday afternoon when he appeared on behalf of the Kentucky delegation to pledge all its delegates to Mr. Trump. An hour later, the roaring crowd unanimously acclaimed Mr. Vance’s nomination for vice president.”

On social media in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump, Vance wrote on X that “the central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” and “that rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Democrats immediately pounced, calling the statement outrageous and shameful, especially in light of a simple fact.  No clear motive had been established...days after, let alone hours after.

Monday, the FBI said it had gained access to Crooks’ cellphone and began analyzing its contents for clues but did not immediately find clear evidence of a potential motive, or significant new details about possible connections to other people.

Monday evening, Donald Trump made a dramatic appearance at the convention, his right ear bandaged.  He was somber and clearly emotional as he received a rapturous ovation, many with tears in their eyes.

His mood had changed by Tuesday, when he made another appearance to hear some of his former rivals give speeches, Trump cheerful as he sat in the friends and family box with the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Nikki Haley, who once called Trump “unhinged,” told her true believers that wherever her former president went, chaos followed. He called her “Nimrata.”  He called her “Birdbrain.”

But in Milwaukee, granted a last-minute invite, she told the gathering after a fairly muted reception that she had accepted “in the name of unity.”

“It was a gracious invitation, and I was happy to accept.  I’ll start by making one thing perfectly clear.  Donald Trump has my strong endorsement – period.”

“For more than a year I said a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for president Kamala Harris,” Haley continued.

“After seeing the debate, everyone knows it’s true.  If we have four more years of Biden or a single day of Harris, our country will be badly worse off. For the sake of our nation, we have to go with Donald Trump.”

Haley acknowledged there are some Americans that don’t agree with Donald Trump a hundred percent of the time, including her, “But we have agreed more often than we disagree.  We agree on keeping America strong. We agree on keeping America safe.”

Ron DeSantis – Ron DeSanctimonious, as Trump called him during the primary – took the stage immediately after Haley and was starry eyed in his praise of Trump.

Wednesday was J.D. Vance’s night to introduce himself to America.

Vance delivered a heavy dose of populism as he debuted as the likely heir apparent as GOP leader, much to the chagrin of Haley and DeSantis, among others.

Vance received a strong reception as he bashed Wall Street and free trade, while echoing anti-establishment themes long part of Trump’s political persona.

“Tonight is a night of hope, a celebration of what America once was, and with God’s grace, what it will soon be again,” Vance said.

“President Trump represents America’s last best hope to restore what – if lost – may never be found again,” Vance said, saying he and Trump were fighting for people like “the autoworker in Michigan, wondering why out-of-touch politicians are destroying their jobs” and “the factory worker in Wisconsin who makes things with their hands and is proud of American craftsmanship.”

Vance did not mention the war in Ukraine during his speech or say much at all about foreign policy.

He did say that U.S. allies must share in the burden of securing world peace and America would avoid conflict but “punch hard” if provoked under a second Trump presidency.

And the Ohio senator didn’t make abortion a focus, an issue where Trump is out of step with some evangelicals.

Vance has been assigned one major task.  Help win the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  He was also tabbed by Trump after a strong lobbying effort by his son, Don Jr., who sees Vance representing the next generation of Trump’s movement.

Trump aides and advisers also appreciate Vance’s ability to go on TV and mix it up with pundits and defend the president, not to mention a possible debate with Kamala Harris.

*The most powerful moment of Wednesday night’s coverage was the Gold Star families appearing on stage and ripping President Biden for his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan that helped lead to the deaths of 13 U.S. servicemembers. 

Thursday, the stage was then Donald Trump’s.

“I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” Trump said, drawing chants of “yes you are” from the crowd.  “I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of almighty God.”

The former president praised the efforts of his Secret Service detail and the bravery of the crowd in Butler that didn’t panic, and his tribute to Corey Comperatore, killed in the assassination attempt, was moving.

“Our society must be healed,” Trump said.

Trump’s somber account of last Saturday then gave way to his normal rambling, off script, rally talk, such as describing the immigration crisis as “a massive invasion at our southern border that has spread misery, crime, poverty, disease, and destruction to communities all across our land.”

The speech turned into his usual litany of grievances.

And the president warned that the “planet” is on the brink of “World War Three,” an “international crisis the likes of which the world has seldom been part of.”

“War is now raging in Europe and the Middle East, a growing specter of conflict hangs over Taiwan, Korea, the Philippines, and all of Asia, and our planet is teetering on the edge of World War Three, and this will be a war like no other.”

But Trump then talked of his good relations with Kim Jong Un, and he boasted that “I could stop wars with just a telephone call.”  Which I kind of doubt.

Trump started his speech at 10:32 p.m. ET.  Last night, like the night before ahead of J.D. Vance’s speech, Eric Trump and Don Jr. were among those allowed to speak for way too long.

But the bottom line was that at 11:17 p.m. (I was jotting down times on Post-its), Trump acknowledged it was important to “finish strong,” at which point his speech quickly devolved into a godawful 48-minute finale.  At 12:05 a.m., he wrapped up.  I stayed up to the bitter end.

Overall, however, the convention was a big success, the RNC doing a great job.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal...on a second term....

“One risk, and it’s a big one, is that the Trump GOP no longer has a political philosophy beyond what is in the former President’s head. The party’s economic platform is a contradictory mix of tax cutting and tariff raising.  Mr. Trump wants to unleash animal spirits but named a running mate who supports union leaders more than business employers.  He wants to end foreign wars but has offered no specific ideas for how to do it.  We’ll know Mr. Trump’s policies when we see them.

“The other risk is if Mr. Trump pursues an agenda of retribution.  If he does, his second term will quickly devolve into trench warfare and polarization, a probable GOP wipeout in the midterms, and another impeachment.  But if he means what he has said that ‘success’ in office is retribution enough, he has a chance to govern better.”

The above was expressed prior to Thursday night.

Then, after his speech, the Journal opined:

“The GOP convention gave Mr. Trump a lift by making a strong critique of the Biden Administration’s record.  But we doubt the former President closed the deal on Thursday by reminding the country at great length that he is still Donald Trump.”

---

Israel-Hamas....

--An Israeli airstrike killed at least 90 Palestinians in a designated humanitarian zone in Gaza on Saturday, the enclave’s health ministry said, over 300 injured, in an attack Israel said targeted Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it remained unclear whether Deif and another Hamas commander had been killed and promised to continue to target Hamas leadership, saying more military pressure on the group would improve chances of a hostage deal even as sources said talks had been halted.

“Either way, we will get to the whole of the leadership of Hamas,” Netanyahu told a news conference, vowing to pursue Israel’s war aims to the end.

The Al-Mawasi area that was targeted is a designated humanitarian area that the Israeli army has repeatedly urged Palestinians to head to after issuing evacuation orders from other areas.  Israel said, “terrorists hid among civilians.”  The IDF said the area was not a tent complex, but an operational compound run by Hamas and that several more militants were there, guarding Deif.

A Hamas official told AFP Mohammad Deif is “fine.”  The source reportedly added that the hostage deal negotiations were set to “halt.”

Hamas then released a statement on its official Telegram channel denying the claims that the negotiations would halt.

While Deif has not been confirmed as killed, Saudi media reported on Sunday, citing Hamas sources, that Hamas’ Khan Yunis Brigade commander Rafa Salameh, who was with Deif at the time of the strike, had been eliminated.

Hamas issued a statement that Israel’s claim that it was targeting Hamas leaders was “false.” 

“It’s not the first time Israel claims to target Palestinian leaders, only to be proven false later,” Hamas said in a statement.

Deif is the leader of the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military wing, and is considered a mastermind of the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on Israel.  He is the second most senior Hamas figure in Gaza, after its leader in the territory, Yahya Sinwar.

Israeli officials said the attack had killed Rafa Salameh, the leader of Hamas forces in the southern city of Khan Younis.

IDF Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi said in a televised statement Sunday that “It is still too soon to sum up the results of the attack, those which Hamas is trying to hide.”

[And that’s where we stood at week’s end.]

--Health officials at Nasser Medical Complex, previously the biggest functioning hospital in Gaza, said on Saturday that the hospital was no longer able to function. Doctors said they were overwhelmed following Saturday’s strike and could not provide medical healthcare to the large number of casualties because of the intensity of Israel’s military offensive and acute shortages in medical supplies.

--Islamic Jihad officials said their fighters were engaged in fierce battles Monday in the Yabna camp in Rafah. [Further proof, if you needed it, that Hamas, Islamic Jihad et al embed themselves in the camps.]

--The U.S. military announced on Wednesday that its mission to install and operate a temporary, floating pier off the coast of Gaza was complete, formally ending an extraordinary but troubled effort to bring humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

Incredibly, the military didn’t seem to know that the waters in the area can be a bit choppy.

--Early Friday morning, a large explosion tore through the streets of central Tel Aviv, killing one and injuring at least 10 people.  Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone strike.

It was not immediately clear how the strike evaded Israel’s air defenses or how Israel might respond, but the strike did hit hours after the IDF confirmed air strikes had killed a Hezbollah commander and other militants in southern Lebanon.

--The International Court of Justice said Friday that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem violated international law, the first time the world’s highest court has laid out its stance on an issue that has been the subject of debates and resolutions at the United Nations for decades.

The court’s advisory opinion, however, is not binding and unlikely to shape Israeli policy but could affect international opinion.

---

Russia-Ukraine....

--Last weekend, Russian attacks killed at least six people and injured 13 in Ukraine’s eastern frontline Donetsk region, regional authorities said.

A Russian missile landed near an administrative building and a bus stop in the town of Myrnohrad, northwest of the Russian-held city of Donetsk, killing four.

A separate attack on an unnamed enterprise in the town of Kostiantynivka killed two civilians.

--Ukrainian attacks caused a fire at a factory producing electrical devices and wounded at least six people in Russian areas bordering Ukraine, local governors said on Tuesday.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defense systems destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones overnight, including one drone over the Kursk region.

Four people were wounded in the border region of Belgorod by Ukrainian shelling.

Russia’s Kommersant daily newspaper reported on Tuesday that authorities were considering evacuating people from 14 villages in the Belgorod region that were particularly close to the Ukrainian border. [Reuters]

--The Economist had this update on the conditions on the ground in Ukraine:

“Russia’s ground offensive in Ukraine is running out of steam. Ukraine’s situation on the front line is improving thanks to mobilization of soldiers, the arrival of more munitions and the building of fortifications.

“To make limited territorial gains Russia has been sacrificing tanks and armored fighting vehicles at an unsustainable rate.  Oryx, an open-source intelligence site, puts the number of verifiable destroyed and damaged tanks at 3,235 currently, but suggests that the actual number could be ‘significantly higher.’  Russia has so far relied on refurbishing Soviet-era armored vehicles and artillery barrels. Analysts believe that at current rates of attrition stocks of those weapons will reach a ‘critical point of exhaustion’ by mid-2025.

“On the other hand, Russia’s production of missiles and drones is surging. The greatest threat that Ukraine faces is not a Russian breakthrough on the ground, but the airborne onslaught against its power grid.  Even if the promised new air-defense systems arrive soon, Ukraine is facing a hard winter.”

--Speaking of the weather, Ukraine’s electricity grid recently has been dealing with a heat wave, temperatures reaching 104 degrees F., 40 C.  [I get into southern Europe’s heat issues below.] The heat is straining the grid even more as residents turn on air-conditioners and food businesses use more electricity to cool products.  Ukrenergo, the country’s national electricity operator, said Monday that current consumption largely exceeds Ukraine’s generating capacity.

So, authorities have to impose widespread rolling blackouts across the country.  In Kyiv, most buildings are now without power for at least 10 hours a day, including during long periods in the daytime.

--Thursday, Russian attacks on Donetsk killed five more civilians and injured three others.  All five victims were in private homes or residential buildings.

--European countries would be putting themselves at risk if they accept deployments of long-range U.S. missiles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a video published Saturday.

Peskov, speaking to a Russian state TV reporter, said: “Europe is now coming apart at the seams. This is not the best time for Europe. Therefore, in one way or another, history will repeat itself.’

As in American missiles based in Europe, could make Europe the chief victim of any potential conflict.

--Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the accession of Ukraine to NATO would be a declaration of war against Moscow and only “prudence” on behalf of the alliance could prevent the planet being shattered into pieces; not the first time that Medvedev has used apocalyptic language.

While NATO offered Ukraine an “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership” at the recent summit, no timetable was offered.

--Josh Rogin / Washington Post

“Things went better than expected for Ukraine at NATO’s Washington summit: Ukraine was awarded promises of new weapons, financial support and rhetorical (if not concrete) commitments to its future membership in the alliance.

“But despite those wins for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Biden sent him home without the one thing he needs most: permission to strike back at air bases inside Russia that are being used to kill Ukrainian civilians.

“With this overly cautious decision, Biden is letting Russian President Vladimir Putin play for time and wait for a possible change in U.S. leadership and policy. Instead, Biden should allow Ukraine to regain the advantage before the November election – which could, in turn, improve his own political prospects.

“In one of the most substantive parts of his Thursday news conference after the close of the summit, Biden defended his unwillingness to remove restrictions that currently prohibit Ukraine from using weapons against targets inside Russia, with narrow exceptions.  He said the government was deciding ‘day to day’ what Russian targets Ukrainian forces are allowed to strike.

“ ‘That’s the logical thing to do,’ Biden said.  ‘If [Zelensky] had the capacity to strike Moscow, strike the Kremlin, would that make sense?  It wouldn’t.’

“But Biden’s example is misplaced because Zelensky is not asking for permission to strike Moscow.  In remarks this week at the Ronald Reagan Institute, Zelensky said Ukraine needs permission to strike Russian air bases within 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) of the Ukrainian border. Every day, Russian jets fire guided bombs into Ukrainian territory from these bases with impunity, Zelensky said. Russia has thousands of these bombs, so no amount of air-defense systems can keep up. The only way to thwart this tactic is to hit the air bases....

“If next year a Trump administration does try to pressure Ukraine into negotiations with Russia, Ukraine’s hand should be as strong as possible.  For that reason alone, the Biden team should now give Kyiv a longer leash to act.  Lifting restrictions on Ukraine would also save lives – and makes sense politically.

“Biden likes to say the United States will support Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes.’ The reality, as he, Zelensky and Putin all know, is he might have only six months left with the power to keep that promise.”

--In an opinion piece for Bloomberg, retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO, James Stavridis, highlighted a little known flashpoint, the Arctic.

“Russia is on the move up north, and to a lesser extent so is China. What should NATO consider as it looks at the polar region?

“Russia is the largest coastal nation of the Arctic Ocean, taking up about half its shores.  The other half is divided among the U.S., Canada, Denmark (Greenland is its dependent territory), Iceland and Norway. The recent addition of Sweden and Finland means NATO boasts seven of the eight countries holding real estate above the Arctic Circle.

“The single non-NATO nation, of course, is the Russian Federation – and President Vladimir Putin has the most active and consistent Arctic program.  Moscow is expanding and renewing its already formidable fleet of icebreakers: in the last four years, the Russians have put three new nuclear-powered ships into service, with at least another trio in the building yards.

“But what has heads turning in NATO-world is the construction trial of a brand-new combat icebreaker, the very impressive Ivan Papanin. This Russian warship, which is diesel-electric rather than nuclear, is expected to be fully functional by the end of this year.  Two more of the same class are coming right behind it....

“The U.S. Navy has no icebreakers.  The Coast Guard’s antique Polar Star, commissioned in 1976, is on life support in a shipyard.  The Coast Guard’s next-generation Polar Security Cutter program has been repeatedly delayed and gone hugely over budget and isn’t expected to yield an operating craft until the end of the decade.”

Stavridis goes on to note that integrating Sweden and Finland quickly into the Arctic Council is key, with their significant Arctic experience and militaries with deep experience operating in severe cold.

And then it’s upgrading the alliance’s combat icebreaking capability, which could include refitting some of the Navy’s destroyers with “ice-hardened” hulls.  And the Canadians, “whose defense spending is among the lowest in NATO, need to put resources toward Arctic maritime capability.  At a minimum, they should ice-harden their new class of 15 planned surface combatants.”

And there’s surveillance, including satellite coverage of the region that needs improvement.

This is all just a start.

--Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was convicted Friday of espionage and sentenced to 16 years on charges that his employer and the U.S. have rejected as fabricated.

The conclusion of his swift and secretive trial in the country’s highly politicized legal system perhaps cleared the way for a prisoner swap between Moscow and Washington.

---

Wall Street and the Economy

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, at an event Monday at the Economic Club of Washington, said inflation readings over the second quarter of this year “add somewhat to confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed’s target in a sustainable fashion, remarks that suggest a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off.

“In the second quarter, actually, we did make some more progress” on taming inflation.  We’ve had three better readings, and if you average them, that’s a pretty good place.”  Consumer prices in the second quarter rose at an annualized pace of 2.1%, ex-food and energy, which tends to run higher than the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures index.  The PCE for June is released next week.

“What we’ve said is that we didn’t think it would be appropriate to begin to loosen policy until we had greater confidence” that inflation was returning sustainably to 2%, Powell continued.  “We’ve been waiting on that. And I would say that we didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the last three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence.”

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voting member, addressed a business forum in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday and said the job market in particular “has seen substantial rebalancing,” with wage growth moderating and measures of demand for workers coming into line with pre-pandemic levels.

“This continued rebalancing suggests that inflation will continue to move down toward our 2 percent target,” Kugler said.  “If economic conditions continue to evolve in this favorable manner with more rapid disinflation, as evidenced in the inflation data of the past three months, and employment softening but remaining resilient as seen in the past few jobs reports, I anticipate that it will be appropriate to begin easing monetary policy later this year.”

But Kugler didn’t specify when rates might fall, though the remarks were consistent with the sense that the Fed will telegraph a September rate cut at the July 30-31 meeting.

New York Fed President John Williams (permanent voting member) said in an interview Tuesday that the last three months of inflation data are “getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking for.  These are positive signs.  I would like to see more data to gain further confidence inflation is moving sustainably to our 2% goal.

While Williams said a rate cut is unlikely in the July meeting, his remarks indicate September is in play.

On the data front, June retail sales came in unchanged, up 0.8% ex-autos, both figures much better than expected.  June industrial production was also better than forecast, up 0.6%, while June housing starts were stronger than consensus at a 1.35 million annualized pace.

Add it all up and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth is up to 2.7%.  We get our first government estimate of Q2 GDP next Thursday.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.77%, down from last week’s 6.89%.

Europe and Asia

The euro area’s annual inflation rate for June came in at 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May, and 5.5% a year ago. The important core rate, ex-food and energy, ticked down to 2.8% from 2.9%.  [Eurostat]

Headline inflation....

Germany 2.5%, France 2.5%, Italy 0.9%, Spain 3.6%, Netherlands 3.4%, Ireland 1.5%.

Thursday, the European Central Bank then left its key interest rate unchanged as its rate-setting council and President Christine Lagarde take their time to make sure stubborn inflation is firmly under control before lowering rates again.  The decision left the deposit rate at 3.75%, where it has stood after a single rate cut at the previous meeting on June 6.

“Domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated, and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target [2%] well into next year,” the bank said in a statement.

Britain: The UK’s rate of inflation was unchanged at the Bank of England’s target in June, leaving the door open for an interest-rate cut at its August meeting, despite concerns about rapid rises in services prices.

Consumer prices were 2.0% higher last month vs. a year ago, data from the Office for National Statistics showed.  Inflation has cooled from a high of 11.1% in October 2022, when energy prices skyrocketed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Separately, King Charles has the responsibility of laying out the legislative agenda in a session of parliament, which he did Wednesday, reading out Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s priorities.

Starmer is promising a government of service focused on reviving the economy and tackling issues from an acute housing shortage to a cost-of-living crisis.  The new government also hopes to speed up the delivery of major infrastructure projects, improving transport and creating jobs.

Starmer also has a goal of resetting relations with the European Union after years of Brexit rancor.

France: the government of President Emmanuel Macron resigned on Tuesday in a sign of unprecedented political gridlock as France prepares to host the Summer Olympics.

Macron accepted the resignation of his Prime Minister Gabrel Attal, which is a tactical move. The two agreed last week that Attal and his government (most of the members) would stay on in a caretaker capacity, though with diminished powers.  The cabinet has the authority to look after administrative affairs, but it will be constrained in proposing new legislation, including the annual budget.

Friday, lawmakers re-elected a centrist ally of Macron as president of the National Assembly, infuriating the left after its victory in parliamentary elections.

Yael Braun-Pivet, a member of Macron’s Renaissance party, won with 220 votes in the 577-seat assembly to 207 votes for Andre Chassaigne, the candidate of the New Popular Front left-wing alliance.

So, kind of out of nowhere, Macron at week’s end was strengthened some, but obviously far from a majority to enact legislation.

--The European Commission elected Ursula von der Leyen to a second term as president after pledging to create a continental “defense union” and to stay the course on Europe’s green transition while cushioning its burden on industry.

In her speech to the European Parliament, von der Leyen (who I like a lot) blasted Hungarian Prime Minister Orban’s recent visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as an “appeasement mission,” winning broad applause.

Turning to Asia...China released its GDP figure for the second quarter, and it wasn’t good...4.7% vs. 5.3% prior and 5.1% consensus.

The National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement accompanying the data that the growth slowdown in the second quarter was due to short-term factors such as extreme weather and floods.  It also reflected that the economy is facing more difficulties and challenges, with the problems of insufficient domestic demand remaining, the NBS said.

“The root of the growth slowdown is that the property sector as a pillar of the economy is still rapidly shrinking, and home prices are slumping,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc.  “To change the fast slowdown in consumption growth China needs to stabilize the property industry, which accounts for about 70% of household wealth.”

The NBS also revealed June industrial production rose 5.3% year-over-year, as expected, though compared to 5.6% in May, but retail sales for the month were up 2.0% vs. 3.7% prior Y/Y and the slowest since Dec. 2022, while fixed asset investment, year-to-date, rose 3.9% vs. 4.0% prior.  June unemployment was unchanged at 5%.

Japan’s June exports rose 5.4% year-over-year, less than forecast, while imports were up 3.2%.

On the inflation front, June consumer prices rose 2.8% vs. 2.8% prior, and 2.2% ex-food and energy vs. 2.1% last month, investors uncertain as to whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its July 30-31 meeting from current near-zero levels.

Meanwhile, around 17.8 million people visited Japan in the first half of 2024 – 1m more than before the pandemic.  As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the weak yen helps.  But that has fueled inflation and hampered domestic spending.

Street Bytes

--Stocks were mixed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs mid-week, but the Dow finishing up 0.7% to 40287, while the S&P 500 fell 2.0%, and Nasdaq cratered 3.7% after a six-week rally.

U.S. chip stocks fell hard on Wednesday after Donald Trump said in an interview he was lukewarm, at best, in terms of defending Taiwan.  And a report that the administration is mulling tighter curbs on export of advanced semiconductor technology to China didn’t help the sector.  The U.S. has told allies it is considering using the most severe trade curbs available if companies continue giving Beijing access to advanced semiconductor technology, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. [More below.]

Apple shares rose to a record high on Monday after Morgan Stanely raised its price target on the iPhone maker’s shares and designated the stock as a ‘top pick,’ citing the company’s AI efforts as a boost to device sales.  Last month the company unveiled Apple Intelligence, luring customers to upgrade their devices to be able to use the new technology.

We get earnings from the likes of Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla and Exxon Mobil next week.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.19%  2-yr. 4.51%  10-yr. 4.24%  30-yr. 4.45%

Yields rose some after the sharp rally of the past few weeks.  But it’s all about next Friday’s PCE.

--The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen keep attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and other surrounding water.  Monday it was two in the Red Sea, the terrorist group claiming to have attacked a third ship in the Mediterranean Sea, with all three ordered as the Houthis’ response to an Israeli airstrike in Gaza Saturday.  The crew aboard one of the Red Sea ships reported damage while the other is believed to have escaped a dynamic attack surprisingly unscathed, according to U.S. Central Command.

MT Chios Lion, a Liberian-flagged, Marshall Islands-owned, Greek-operated crude oil tanker, was hit with one of the Houthis’ drone boats in the Red Sea, which caused some damage but not enough for the crew to request assistance.

MT Bentley I, which is a Panama-flagged, Israel-owned, Monaco-operated tanker vessel, was also attacked Monday as CENTCOM said it hauled a cargo of vegetable oil from Russia to China.  Three Houthi boats, two manned, one “uncrewed surface vessel” were used in the attacks – and hours later an anti-ship ballistic missile was also fired at the ship – but no damage or injuries were reported. 

All of this keeps shipping costs sky-high.

--Two large oil tankers were on fire Friday in waters off Singapore after colliding, Singapore the world’s biggest refueling port.  This could be the second environmental disaster in Singapore (and this time potentially Malaysia) in weeks.  There were some serious injuries among the crew.

Years ago, I took a ferry from Singapore to Indonesia just to see the tankers in the Straits of Malacca, and Singapore Strait, and it is so impressive, but you can imagine two behemoths colliding and the impact. [Singapore is attached to Malaysia, Indonesia on the other side.]

--More big-bank earnings....

Goldman Sachs posted a massive 150% jump in second quarter profits Monday, helped by a resurgence of dealmaking and underwriting that has revived investment banking after the slowdown of the previous couple years.

The investment bank posted net earnings of $3.04 billion, $8.62 per share, compared with $1.22 billion in the same period a year earlier, or $3.08 per share.  Consensus was at $8.42. The shares rose 2.5%.

Nearly every aspect of Goldman’s businesses saw revenue jump in the quarter, reflecting what has been a broad revival in dealmaking and activity on Wall Street this year in a healthy economy.

Total net revenue was $12.73 billion, up from $10.90 billion a year earlier.  Analysts expected $12.37 billion.

Investment banking fees rose 21%, helped by a big jump in debt underwriting fees for the bank.  Many companies are having to refinance their debts to deal with higher interest rates, and there has been a surge in leveraged financing packages.

Morgan Stanley’s profit rose in the second quarter as investment banking activity rebounded on strength in equity and debt underwriting.  Shares rose about 2% in response.

The bank’s net income came in at $3.1 billion, or $1.82 per share in the three months ended June 30.  That compares with $2.2 billion, or $1.24 per share, a year earlier.

“The firm delivered another strong quarter in an improving capital markets environment,” said CEO Ted Pick in a statement.  A rosier economic outlook, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and surging equity markets have spurred buyouts, debt sales and stock offerings after a nearly two-year dry spell for Wall Street.

Global investment banking revenues jumped 17% in the first half to $41.6 billion, according to Dealogic, with MS’s investment banking revenue surging 51% to $1.62 billion in Q2.

Morgan Stanley’s total revenue jumped nearly 12% to about $15 billion in the quarter.

Bank of America shares rose solidly even as the Charlotte-based bank said its profits fell in the second quarter, as higher interest rates ate into BofA’s expenses, including its large consumer banking franchise.

But like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (and JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and WFC last week), BAC saw a resurgence of activity in its investment banking division which helped make up for some of the weakness in other parts of the bank.

Bank of America earned a profit of $6.9 billion, compared with $7.4 billion in the same period a year earlier.  Adjusted earnings of $0.83 per share were less than last year’s $0.88, but ahead of consensus of $0.80.

The bank saw fewer credit losses and delinquencies than its competition, only increasing the money it set aside for loan losses by a modest amount.

The investment banking division helped make up for the sluggish performance in the consumer bank, with higher sales in trading revenue from its stock and bond trading desks and more advisory revenue from its bankers.

Total revenue at the bank was $25.4 billion, up modestly from $25.2 billion in the same period a year earlier.

--Assets managed by BlackRock hit a record $10.65 trillion in the second quarter thanks to rising client asset values and as investors pumped money into the company’s exchange-traded funds, the world’s largest asset manager said on Monday.  A year earlier the figure was $9.43 trillion.

CEO Larry Fink said on a conference call, “We see unbelievable growth opportunities for our clients and shareholders for 2024 and beyond, adding he saw great potential for investments into the energy transition and artificial intelligence data centers.

Investment advisory and administrative fees, typically a percentage of assets under management (AUM), rose 8.6% to $3.72 billion.  BlackRock’s total revenue jumped 8% to $4.81 billion.  Net income rose to $1.50 billion, or $9.99 per share, in the three months ended June 30, from $1.37 billion, or $9.06 per share, a year earlier.

--UnitedHealth Group reported a better-than-expected profit for Q2 on Tuesday, due to strength in its healthcare services unit and raised the cost estimates tied to a hack at its tech unit earlier this year.  The company said it had restored the majority of the affected Change Healthcare services. The February hack at the unit, which processes about 50% of U.S. medical claims, caused widespread disruption in payments to doctors and healthcare facilities.

Meanwhile, the company’s medical loss ratio – the percentage of premiums spent on medical care – was 85.1% in the second quarter, compared with 83.2% a year earlier.

But the earnings for the Dow component were $6.80 per share, vs. analysts’ average estimate of $6.63, and the stock rose 6% in response.

--Barron’s had a piece on how hotter temperatures are a problem for the airlines.  As George Glober writes, citing a Citi analysis: “The climate crisis is driving up temperatures in the U.S. and across the world – and it might not be long before excessive heat starts chipping away at airlines’ earnings by slashing demand for travel to warmer climates, limiting availability of takeoff slots, and making flight paths more turbulent.”

On the other hand, those not wanting to melt will choose cooler climes.  Personally, I’d recommend Montreal or Toronto*, Quebec City, Calgary, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island....

[Paid for the Canadian Department of Tourism...that’s Canada, where all domestic beer is premium.]

*Oops, Toronto was hit with record rainfall this week (4 inches) as three huge storms flooded parts of the city, cut power to 167,000 customers, and left drivers stranded on a major motorway.   

--Spirit Airlines on Tuesday cut its revenue outlook for the second quarter, citing lower-than-expected non-ticket revenue, sending its shares down 10% when the stock opened on Wednesday.  The company now projects quarterly revenue to be $1.28 billion, compared with its earlier estimate of between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, the ultra-low-cost carrier said in a regulatory filing.

--United Airlines after the close on Wednesday reported that its second-quarter profit rose 23% to $1.32 billion, as record crowds at U.S. airports helped the carrier overcome sharply rising costs for fuel and labor.

However, UAL warned that third-quarter results will fall short of the Street’s expectations.

Like rival Delta, United said it was concerned that carriers are adding more flights than necessary, creating a glut of seats that is keeping prices from rising. Airlines are trimming their schedules for mid-August and beyond, which will help reduce the oversupply of flights while increasing the airlines’ pricing power.

United said it expects to earn $2.75 to $3.25 per share in Q3, below consensus of $3.38.  Second-quarter profit was $4.14 per share, ex-items, with the Street at $3.93.  Revenue was $14.99 billion, slightly below consensus.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

7/18...107 percent of 2023 levels
7/17...105
7/16...105
7/15...101
7/14...107
7/13...104
7/12...103
7/11...104

--Netflix shares rose a bit Friday after its earnings release for Q2, the company reporting EPS of $4.88, up from $3.29 a year earlier and vs. consensus of $4.74.  Revenue in the quarter was $9.56 billion, up from $8.19 a year ago, analysts expecting $9.53bn.

Netflix said it expects Q3 EPS of $5.10 on revenue of $9.73bn, with the Street at $4.72 on revenue of $9.81bn.

In a letter to shareholders, the streaming giant said its global paid net additions advanced to 8.05 million in the second quarter from 5.89 million a year earlier.  The consensus was for a 5.1 million increase.

But Netflix projects net subscriber additions to be down from the year-ago period, which had the first full quarter impact from the paid-sharing initiative.

Revenue growth this year is now forecast at 14% to 15%, lifting the bottom end of its prior guidance from 13%.

--Elon Musk announced he is pledging to pour $45 million a month into a pro-Donald Trump political group, a move that would flood the Republican nominee’s reelection effort with cash through the November election.

Musk endorsed Trump in a post on X after the attempted assassination Saturday.

Hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman formally threw his support behind Trump in the wake of the assassination attempt as well.

Billionaire Ken Griffin, who has met with Trump recently, but has expressed skepticism in the past, said in a statement Saturday:

“Our society and democracy have no place for political violence, and we must condemn it in no uncertain terms.  As Americans, we are fortunate to have the right to resolve our political differences by casting our votes.”

--Back to Elon Musk, he said on Tuesday he is moving the headquarters of two more of his companies – social media platform X and rocket company SpaceX – to Texas from California, citing a new gender-identity law there as the “last straw.”

A new California law that forbids school districts from requiring teachers to notify parents when a child changes gender identity or sexual orientation helped spur Tuesday’s announcement, Musk said.

Musk said SpaceX’s main office would move to an existing facility in Boca Chica, Texas, while X would move to Austin.

But you can’t make these moves overnight, especially SpaceX, and the extent to which jobs or facilities in California will transfer to Texas was unclear.

The Los Angeles hub is where SpaceX has thousands of employees, who built the company’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket, Dragon astronaut capsules and some Starshield satellites.  In 2021, Musk moved Tesla’s headquarters from California to Texas, but California has remained the engineering hub.

--As alluded to above, shares in Taiwan Semiconductor fell 5% on Wednesday after comments from Donald Trump.  Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek on June 25, but published late Tuesday, that Taiwan should pay the United States for its defense as it does not give the country anything.

“I know the people very well, respect them greatly. They did take about 100% of our chip business. I think Taiwan should pay us for defense... You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”

TSMC is spending billions building new factories overseas, including $65 billion on three plants in the state of Arizona, though it says most manufacturing will remain in Taiwan.

TSMC is the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a major Apple and Nvidia supplier.

Thursday, the company issued its second-quarter earnings report and raised its projections for full-year revenue growth after results beat estimates, riding the wave of spending on AI.  TSMC expects revenue of as much as $23.2 billion this quarter, above analysts’ expectations.  And it narrowed its forecast for capital spending – a key indicator of where TSMC sees future demand – to the high end of its original forecast, to $30 billion to $32bn from as low as $28 billion previously.

Net income rose to $7.6 billion, after the company disclosed its second-quarter sales grew at the fastest pace since 2022.

--Amazon’s annual Prime Day commenced Tuesday, and the company announced Thursday that it saw record sales, though it doesn’t disclose how much it earns during the event.  Amazon did say “millions” of customers joined Prime in the past three weeks to take advantage of the discounts.

An estimate from Adobe Analytics, which tracks online sales, said sales Tuesday and Wednesday were up 11% compared to last year.

According to Capital One, about 119 million packages were stolen in 2023 across America, but that’s only about 0.5% of the 21.7 billion shipments in the U.S. that year.

Separately, according to a report released Tuesday by Sen. Bernie Sanders, drawing from information from a year-long Senate committee investigation into Amazon’s safety practices and relying on internal company data from 2019 and 2020, peak shopping time, including the holiday shopping period, resulted in the “highest weekly injury rates” for warehouse workers.

In a statement, Sanders said the “incredibly dangerous working conditions at Amazon” highlighted in the report are a “perfect example of the type of corporate greed that the American people are sick and tired of.”

“Despite making $36 billion in profits last year and providing its CEO with over $275 million in compensation over the past three years, Amazon continues to treat its workers as disposable and with complete contempt for their safety and well-being,” said the Vermont independent.

--Macy’s shares fell 12% Monday after the company announced its buyout talks with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital ended due to uncertainty over financing and valuation and said it would now concentrate on its turnaround efforts.  Macy’s had disclosed that the investor group had revised its offer for a second time in June to buy the department store chain’s stock it does not already own for $24.80 apiece, up from $24 offered in March.

Macy’s new CEO Tony Spring has rolled out a turnaround plan that focused on job cuts and 150 store closures through 2026.  The stock finished the week around $16.50.

--A hacker who claims to have stolen sensitive call and text logs from AT&T Inc. said they were paid about $400,000 to erase the data trove.

An analysis of a Bitcoin wallet address provided by the hacker shows a transaction in mid-May that analysts say aligns with an extortion payment.  Bloomberg reported that a person familiar with the ransomware negotiations confirmed the payment from AT&T to the hacker.

AT&T and the FBI declined to comment on whether the company paid a ransom to contain fallout from the hack that potentially exposed a huge cache of call and text logs from nearly all its wireless customers during a six-month period in 2022.

--Friday night after I posted, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that the state of Colorado has reported three presumptive cases of H5 bird flu virus infection in poultry workers.  “There are no signs of unexpected increases in flu activity otherwise in Colorado, or in other states affected by H5 bird flu outbreaks in cows and poultry,” CDC said in a statement.  All three individuals experienced mild symptoms. The workers were culling infected birds.

--Domino’s Pizza shares fell 13% on Thursday after the company reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $4.03 per share, up from $3.08 a year earlier.  Consensus was at $3.68.  Revenue of $1.1 billion was in line with expectations.

But the pizza chain’s U.S. same-store sales grew 4.8% in fiscal Q2, while international same-store sales rose 2.1%. The 4.8% was shy of Street expectations (4.9%) and the market punished the company, as DPZ also warned of sequentially slower comp sales for the third quarter.  Inflation worries discouraged U.S. consumers, particularly in the lower-income group, from eating out or ordering in.  At the same time, fast-food peers have been ramping up deals and promotions on their menu items.

Domino’s suspended its guidance of future store expansion due to issues with its master franchisee, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises.

--Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group soared 33% on Monday after Saturday’s attempted assassination of the former president, as investors figured it boosted the odds of his victory in November.

But they fell 7% on Tuesday after the company filed a prospectus announcing it would resell nearly 38 million shares of common stock.

--New Jersey Transit riders had another godawful week, as NJ Transit issued a warning that “Customers may experience delays and it may be necessary to cancel or combine trips for the next 48-72 hours.”

It’s been this way all summer, NJ Transit and Amtrak, whose wires are used by the former, blaming the heat, but while the weather has sucked, it hasn’t been historically hot here.

To compound matters, though, commuters were subjected to a big fare increase on July 1.

And so the main commuter parking lot I pass by daily, one of my economic indicators, has been very empty compared to earlier in the spring, and it’s not just because it’s vacation time.

--Last week at the box office, “Despicable Me 4” added $44.7 million and pushed the film over $200 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.  But the horror flick “Longlegs,” exceeded industry expectations in its opening weekend, $22.6 million, the Indie-pic having only been budgeted for $10 million.

“Fly Me to the Moon,” with Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum, only took in $10 million. 

“Inside Out 2”’s domestic total hit $572.6 million, $1.35 billion worldwide.

--I didn’t receive an invitation to the Ambani billionaire wedding in Mumbai last week.  It seems there was a mix-up between my people and the newlyweds’ people.

Those who were invited to the multi-day event were treated to featured performances by Rihanna and Justin Bieber.  There was also a four-day Mediterranean cruise and custom Versace gowns.

Anant Ambani is the youngest son of one of Asia’s richest billionaires, Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani, and Radhika Merchant, the daughter of Indian pharmaceutical company CEO Viren Merchant.

The pre-wedding celebration began in March.  The cruise was in late May.  Mark Zuckerberg, Ivanka Trump and Bill Gates were among the early guests.

In May, the Backstreet Boys, Katy Perry, Andrea Bocelli and Pitbull all performed during the cruise.

Rates for booking a single celebrity performer of this caliber could begin around $5 million, according to an event planner, but could soar to $10 million or higher.  And that’s before the additional costs such as transportation for the artist (they aren’t flying coach, you can be sure), lodging, production fees and security, tacking on hundreds of thousands of dollars more.

--We note the passing of conservative journalist and talk show host Lou Dobbs, age 78. 

Dobbs spent more than four decades in journalism, most notably with CNN, which he joined when the network initially launched in 1980, and later Fox News.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: In the middle of the Communist Party’s third plenum, President Xi Jinping – hailed by official media as a “supreme reformist” – told the gathering to show “unwavering faith and commitment” to his grand strategy even as international investment banks cut their forecast for China’s growth following the latest GDP report.

At the same time, the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House has raised concerns that Washington will adopt a more hawkish policy towards China at a time when the European Union is also stepping up the pressure on Beijing.

As for relations with Taiwan, the level of tension has ratcheted up since the election of Lai Ching-te, who, while keeping Taiwan’s basic policy toward China unchanged, has been blunter in rebuffing its demands.

Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen sought to avoid confrontation and chose her words carefully. Lai uses blunt language laying out Taiwan’s separate status.

“In his judgment, there’s nothing to be gained from being ambiguous – the conclusion is that Beijing is going to press them, no matter what,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, in an interview with the New York Times’ Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien.

“For decades, cross-strait relations really lay on ambiguities and not saying what you really think, but I think that a lot of that is being eliminated,” Sacks said.  “There’s less room for maneuverability.”

But now with the likelihood for at least today that Donald Trump is returning to the White House, Lai has some hard choices about how and when to push back or exercise restraint, at a time when China is flying scores of planes near the median line and Chinese Coast Guard vessels and warships are more prevalent in nearby waters.

Separately, China cut off arms control and non-proliferation talks with the United States because of Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday.

“China has decided to suspend talks with the U.S. on holding a new round of arms control and non-proliferation consultations,” ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.  “The responsibility for the situation lies entirely with the U.S.”

He said the U.S.’ continued sales of weapons to the island in the face of Beijing’s opposition had “severely damaged the political atmosphere necessary for continued arms control consultations between the two sides.”

China was willing to maintain communication with the U.S. on the issue but only on the condition that “the U.S. must respect China’s core interests and create the necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange between the two sides,” the ministry said. [South China Morning Post]

North Korea:  Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, was at it again, reportedly saying that South Korea will face “devastating consequences” for dropping flyers in its territory.  According to state media, the papers contained criticisms of the northern regime.  Tensions rose in late May after North Korea sent thousands of rubbish-filled balloons over the border in protest against a separate leafleting campaign by South Korean activists.

Iran: CNN first reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were tracking what they considered a potential Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump in the weeks before a gunman opened fire Saturday, several officials said Tuesday, but they added that they did not believe the threat was related to the shooting that wounded Mr. Trump.

The intelligence had prompted the Secret Service to enhance security for Trump ahead of his outdoor rally in Butler, Pa.  But the measures didn’t stop the shooter from getting on top of the roof.

The Trump campaign was told about the threat not long before Saturday’s rally.

The latest threat stems from Iran’s longstanding desire to take revenge for the strike ordered by Trump in 2020 that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the Iranian security and intelligence commander responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American troops over the years.  Reported Iranian threats against Trump administration officials like Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, and John Bolton, the former national security adviser, have resulted in government security details even after they left office.

“As we have said many times, we have been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for many years, dating back to the last administration,” Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said in a statement.  “These threats arise from Iran’s desire to seek revenge for the killing of Qassim Suleimani. We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority.”

On the nuclear front, Iran’s new ‘reformist’ president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said he wanted to slow his country’s march towards developing nuclear weapons and to re-engage with the West.

A congratulatory message on July 7 from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s top diplomatic adviser, Kamal Kharrazi, was interpreted as a green light for the president-elect to pursue a “tactical shift” in Tehran’s stance.

Kharrazi, chairman of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said in a statement that Pezeshkian’s emphasis on using prominent foreign policy experts promises to solve “the problems caused by cruel Western sanctions” with “dignity and authority.”

But Pezeshkian will need to make concessions on the nuclear program – such as slowing enrichment and resuming international inspections.  The coming months will be telling.

Randon Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 38% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 58% disapprove; 33% of independents approve (June 3-23).

Rasmussen: 42% approve, 56% disapprove (July 18).

--A new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted two weeks after President Biden’s debate flop, found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that he has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, down from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February. 

Overall, seven in 10 Americans think Biden should drop out, with Democrats only slightly less likely than Republicans and independents to say that he should make way for a new nominee.

Three-quarters of Democrats under the age of 45 want Biden to drop out, compared to about 6 in 10 of those who are older.

--A CBS News/YouGov national poll of likely voters released Thursday had Donald Trump leading Biden 52% to 47%, up two points from a July 3 survey (50-48).

In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 51-48, up a point from the last poll.

The poll showed 26% of registered voters said they were more willing to vote for Trump after he was shot.

--Going back to last Friday night, at a campaign rally in Michigan, Joe Biden was defiant.

“Folks, you’ve probably noticed, there’s a lot of speculation lately: What’s Joe Biden gonna do? Is he gonna stay in the race? Is he gonna drop out?” said Biden, who seemed visibly lifted by his supporters.  “Here’s my answer: I am running and we’re gonna win!  I’m not going to change that.”

But back to the week ago Thursday news conference....

Editorial / Washington Post

“A news conference Thursday did not produce the clarity many were looking for as to President Biden’s ability to campaign for reelection and to serve four more years. The president managed to discourse knowledgeably on the questions posed to him, which were mostly polite requests for reassurance about his mental or physical health, or general queries about foreign policy, not tough challenges regarding the gap between reality and the White House’s upbeat portrayal of his fitness over the past year.

“And yet there were moments in which Mr. Biden veered toward the same kind of embarrassing mistakes he had made during the June 27 debate with former president Donald Trump, including a cringeworthy reference to Vice President Harris as ‘Vice President Trump.’  That came just a few hours after Mr. Biden, in a different setting, had mixed up the names of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Russian antagonist, Vladimir Putin.  Mr. Biden also boasted of having ‘created 2,000 jobs last week’ in reference to a jobs report that showed more than 200,000 new jobs last month.  He claimed that five other presidents had worse poll numbers than his in an election year, neglecting to mention that most lost their reelection bids.

“In short, Mr. Biden’s mixed review prolongs the Democratic Party’s predicament, as evidenced by disparate statements from elected officials after the news conference.  Some declared that he should leave the race, while others said the time had come to close ranks behind him. With time running out before the Democratic National Convention opens Aug. 19, Mr. Biden and his inner circle of advisers seem to be playing for time.  Indeed, based on his comments Thursday, Mr. Biden seems to be somewhat oblivious to the political furor surrounding him and in denial about his frailty, personality and politically....

“Eighty-five percent of Americans now say Biden is too old to serve four more years as president, according to a Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll published this week, and 56 percent of Democrats say he should end his candidacy.  His approval rating is 36 percent.  Just 14 percent of adults think Mr. Biden has more of the mental sharpness it takes to effectively serve as president than Mr. Trump....

“To repeat: What makes Mr. Biden’s cognitive decline especially damaging is that he and his aides have systematically failed to level with the public about it.  This undercuts Democrats’ efforts to contrast their commitments to facts and science with Mr. Trump’s lies and flights of demagoguery – however worse morally those might be.

“Tellingly, Mr. Trump and his top advisers appear to prefer to face Mr. Biden than a fresher face.  No party as dispirited and divided as the Democratic Party is right now is likely to win the presidency – or do well down ballot.  Mr. Biden has a distressingly narrow path to victory that requires winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus the single electoral vote from the congressional district that includes Omaha.  This would be a challenge for even the best politicians at their peak.  Mr. Biden denies he is in political trouble and rejects negative polling results.  We suspect Democratic fortunes would improve with a new national ticket.

“Mr. Biden said on Thursday he’s ‘not in this for my legacy.’  Well and good. What, then, is he in it for?  The only right answer is the good of the country. And those with influence and access to the president need to explain forcefully and candidly what that calls for now.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“While Mr. Biden may make it through a particular event, Democrats can have no confidence he won’t have another debate-like meltdown between now and November. As Democratic Rep. Jim Himes put it on CNN in explaining his call for Mr. Biden to step aside:

“ ‘Imagine that three months from now we get another performance like there was in the debate, right before the election. Do you want to take that risk? I don’t.’....

“Here’s Mr. Biden’s answer on Thursday to a question about Volodymyr Zelensky’s request that Mr. Biden let Ukraine use U.S. weapons to strike targets inside Russia:

“ ‘We have allowed Zelensky to use American weapons in the near-term, in the near-abroad into Russia. Whether or not he has – we should be – he should be attacked – for example, should Zelensky – he’s not, but if he had the capacity to strike Moscow, strike the Kremlin, would that make sense?  It wouldn’t.

“ ‘The question is: What’s the best use of the weaponry he has and the weaponry we’re getting to him? I’ve gotten him more HIMAR – I got him more long-range capacity as well as defensive capacity.

“ ‘And so, our military is worki – I’m following the advice of my commander in chief – my – my – of the – the chief of staff of the military as well as the secretary of Defense and our intelligence people.  And we’re making a day-to-day basis on what they should and shouldn’t g – how far they should go in. That’s a logical thing to do.’

“That’s a hard-to-follow jumble that didn’t begin to answer why Mr. Biden has restrained Kyiv from getting the weapons and employing a strategy that would help Ukraine prevail.  Mr. Zelensky doesn’t want to attack Moscow with U.S. weapons.  He wants to attack its supply lines and missile bases in Russia’s south.  Neither the President nor his policy are going to get better in a second term.  Democrats ignore this policy weakness, focusing instead on Mr. Biden’s falling reelection prospects.  Democratic election analyst Doug Sosnik usually surfaces every four years to assure Democrats they’re going to win. But this week he showed up in the New York Times to say Mr. Biden has only a single, narrow path to victory in the Electoral College.

“Mr. Biden must sweep all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he now trails. And he must beat off Mr. Trump’s challenge in states Republicans haven’ won in years but are now in play – New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine and Virginia.  The Times now wants Mr. Biden to withdraw from the race, so the timing of Mr. Sosnik’s analysis is no accident....

“The progressive press is in open revolt, with even the most slavishly partisan columnists saying Joe must go.

“Will he?  Who knows. We’ve been saying since last year that for the good of the country he should withdraw. But Democrats, blinded by their hatred for Mr. Trump, refused to acknowledge the truth about Mr. Biden’s manifest decline. They thought Mr. Trump was unelectable, or that Democratic prosecutions would surely take him out....

“Mr. Biden can point to some polls showing a still close race, and it may be why he’ll refuse to leave even as the panic and pressure from his fellow Democrats increase. The Democrats did this to themselves, but the tragedy is they also did it to the country.”

Monday, in an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt, Biden was struggling anew to complete his thoughts.  He was also angry with some of Holt’s questions.

Holt confronted Biden for comments the president had made days before Saturday’s assassination attempt, with Biden admitting it was a mistake for him to say “time to put Trump in a bullseye.”

The president told Holt he meant Democrats needed to focus more on Trump, his policies and the false statements he made during the presidential debate late last month.

“It was a mistake to use the word. I didn’t say crosshairs. I meant bullseye, I meant focus on him.  Focus on what he’s doing,” he said.

Throughout the interview, Biden made it clear he would not be stepping aside in the presidential race.

Reports then came out Biden had lashed out at moderate Democratic Rep. Jason Crow (Co.), on a Zoom call, Crow one of my favorites on that side of the aisle, a war vet and a guy who ‘gets it.’

Crow told Biden voters are concerned about his vigor and strength and, according to reports, Biden told Crow “I don’t want to hear that crap.”  [There was more to the tense exchange.]

The president is an angry, old man with serious signs of dementia.

Rep. Adam Schiff, a California Democrat who is running for the Senate, warned donors in a private meeting that his party was likely to suffer major losses if Biden continues his reelection campaign, the New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing two unnamed sources.

“I think if he is our nominee, I think we lose,” the Times reported, citing a person with access to a transcription of a recording of the event, a Saturday fundraiser in New York.  “And we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House.”

Wednesday, in a statement to the Los Angeles Times, Schiff then said Biden should end his campaign.

Schiff thus became at least the 20th House Democrat to publicly call on Biden to exit.

Montana Sen. Jon Tester, a vulnerable Democrat up for reelection in a deep-red state, on Thursday called for Biden to end his bid for a second term; Tester the second Democratic senator to do so.

Republicans hold a 220-213 majority in the House, while Democrats have a 51-49 Senate majority.

Biden said in a taped interview with BET, excerpts released Wednesday, that he would consider dropping out if he was diagnosed with a “medical condition” by doctors – giving a sign he could yet falter in his insistence he is remaining in the race.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer “forcefully” shared concerns with the president about fellow Democrats’ concerns over him remaining on the ticket, according to an ABC News report.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Biden last Thursday that his continued candidacy puts Democrats in danger of losing control of either chamber in Congress.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Biden in a recent conversation that polling shows the president cannot defeat Trump and that Biden could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House in November if he stays in the race, CNN reported, according to four sources briefed on the call.

Biden responded by pushing back, telling Pelosi he has seen polls that indicate he can win, one source said.  The sources didn’t indicate if Pelosi actually told Biden that she believes he should drop out.

And the Washington Post reported former president Obama has told allies in recent days that Biden’s path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy, according to multiple people briefed on his thinking.  It seems Obama has only spoken with Biden once since the debate.  Obama has been speaking to Nancy Pelosi and other top party leaders.

CNN political commentator Van Jones spelled it out perfectly, drawing a stark contrast of “strength versus weakness” between Trump surviving an assassination attempt and Biden now contracting Covid.

“A bullet couldn’t stop Trump, a virus just stopped Biden.”

--President Biden made news with reports that he is finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the Supreme Court in the coming weeks, including proposals for legislation to establish term limits for the justices and an enforceable ethics code, as first reported by the Washington Post.

He is also weighing whether to call for a constitutional amendment to eliminate broad immunity for presidents and other constitutional officeholders.

But this isn’t worth any more ink. Term limits and an ethics code would be subject to congressional approval, with a Republican-controlled House and a slim Democratic majority in the Senate, where passage would require 60 votes.  And a constitutional amendment is a non-starter.  So, the president has wasted valuable time on this wild goose chase.

--A federal appeals court on Thursday blocked the Biden administration from continuing to implement a new student debt relief plan.  The St. Louis-based 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals granted a request by seven Republican-led states to put on hold parts of the Department of Education’s debt relief plan that had not already been blocked by a lower-court judge.

--New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, a highly influential politico, was convicted on Tuesday on bribery charges following a nine-week federal trial in Manhattan.

He now faces decades in prison but will likely be sentenced to 3-5 years.  He’s 70.

Prosecutors said Menendez meddled in state and federal criminal investigations to protect his wealthy friends, gave sensitive information to the government of Egypt and worked the levers of power in Washington to make money for his wife, Nadine, who married the senator in 2020 and faces charges of her own.  She’s being charged separately and her case is now on hold as she undergoes cancer treatment.

During her husband’s trial, the senator’s defense team sought to cast much of the blame on Nadine, saying she “kept him in the dark” about her arrangements with a trio of businessmen charged with bribing the couple.

Menendez had been the chairman of the powerful Foreign Relations Committee and stepped down as the case progressed.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer demanded his resignation within an hour of the conviction.  Ditto New Jersey’s other Democratic senator, Cory Booker, and a slew of other Democratic senators.

“In light of this guilty verdict, Senator Menendez must now do what is right for his constituents, the Senate, and our country, and resign,” Schumer said in a statement.

A defiant Menendez appeared outside the courtroom after and said he had done nothing wrong, ever, and would appeal.

As I go to post, Menendez is showing no signs of resigning, but if he does, or if he is expelled, New Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy has the sole authority to select a temporary replacement...Menendez’s seat already up for election this November.

Murphy could tab Rep. Andy Kim, who won the Democratic nomination in this fall’s race, or Murphy could go for a placeholder.

--Police found traces of cyanide in the cups of six Vietnamese and American guests at a central Bangkok luxury hotel (Grand Hyatt Erawan Bangkok), and one of them is believed to have poisoned the others over a bad investment (a murder/suicide), Thai authorities said Wednesday.

--On the weather front, the West got a relative break in the record heat, to the point where in places like Las Vegas, it was just 4-6 degrees above normal, instead of 10-13.

But the heat moved East and here in my town of Summit, N.J., we had some excessive temps, Monday through Wednesday.  A heatwave here is defined as three consecutive days with air temps over 90, and we’ve now had three heatwaves of five and six days this summer, though no records.

[A meteor exploded 29 miles above the greater New York City area on Tuesday morning, which many people along the Jersey Shore heard, and saw, as well as in the boroughs of New York.  Such objects, this one the size of a basketball, NASA cannot track at significant distances from Earth, so they don’t know about them until they hit the atmosphere.  I didn’t hear it...too far away.]

My friend Johnny Mac in Myrtle Beach, S.C., noted that last Sunday afternoon, they tied the city’s all-time highest dew point on record....85!  For you kids out there, when your local weatherman is talking about a dew point of 70, that’s miserable.  [The prior record was in August 1943...when South Carolinians were probably a bit more concerned about the world situation than dew points.]

Washington, D.C. reached 101 on Sunday and Monday, Monday’s temp setting a daily high.  That’s air temp.  It then hit 102 and 99, Tuesday and Wednesday, heat indices of 110+.

Some 390,000 customers were without power in northern Illinois after wicked storms, including multiple tornadoes, blew through Iowa, Illinois – including Chicago – and Indiana, Monday, killing one resident in Indiana.

As of Tuesday, 142,000 ‘customers’ (meaning more than that in terms of actual ‘people’) were still without power in Houston after Hurricane Beryl went through ten days earlier.

The heat in southern Europe has been relentless, with the Italian health ministry placing 12 cities under the most severe heat warning on Tuesday, temps soaring over 40 degrees C (104 F.).  Temperatures then hit 42 C. (108 F.) in several countries, including tourist heavy Spain, Wednesday and Thursday.

And with high temperatures come wildfires.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine...and Evan Gershkovich.

God bless America.

And we wish France success in securing the Olympic Games in Paris, which commence next Friday.  Go Team USA!

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Gold $2400
Oil $80.27

Bitcoin: $67,300 [4:00 PM ET, Friday...big up week on hopes for a Trump win]

Regular Gas: $3.50; Diesel: $3.84 [$3.56 - $3.86 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 7/15-7/19

Dow Jones  +0.7%
S&P 500  -2.0%
S&P MidCap  -0.2%
Russell 2000  +1.7%
Nasdaq  -3.7%

Returns for the period 1/1/24-7/19/24

Dow Jones  +6.9%
S&P 500  +15.4%
S&P MidCap  +8.4%
Russell 2000  +7.8%
Nasdaq  +18.1%

Bulls 63.6
Bears 16.7

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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