Week in Review

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Week in Review

04/26/2025

For the week 4/21-4/25

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to Jim D. and Kirk N. for their long-time support.

Edition 1,357

I get into the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations down below, but to open, President Trump, in multiple forums this week, including in a just-published TIME magazine interview,  has conceded he is giving Russia Crimea, virtually all of the territory it has occupied since the invasion, including gains going back to 2014, Moscow gets sanctions relief, and Ukraine won’t be able to join NATO.

But Vladimir Putin has also always said Ukraine must demilitarize, no longer receive weapons from the U.S. and Europe, and European, or U.S., forces could not be on Ukrainian soil.  And....Volodymyr Zelensky must be removed and replaced by a government of Putin’s liking, all of which would be prelude to Putin taking the entire country.

In return, Trump has asked nothing of Putin.  Instead, Thursday, he told reporters, “You have no idea the pressure I’m putting on Russia.”

After the horrific attack Wednesday night on Kyiv, Trump said: “Things will happen” if Russia doesn’t stop its attacks on Ukraine.

Remember, in 2018, the Trump administration issued a formal statement rejecting recognition of Crimea as Russian territory.  President Zelensky shared an image of the declaration on social media Wednesday as a reminder.

Just three years ago, then-Senator Marco Rubio cosponsored an amendment to prohibit the United States from ever recognizing any Russian claim of sovereignty over parts of Ukraine that it has seized.

This is all a bad, tragic joke.  Donald Trump, the Great Dealmaker, is singlehandedly bringing down the post-World War II order that kept the peace, and Vlad the Impaler is giddy.

But I’ll try to be balanced and offer the conclusion of the Washington Post’s David Ignatius in his op-ed today:

“The challenge for Trump has been how to couple his hunger for a ceasefire with security guarantees for Ukraine that are strong enough to stop Putin from invading again.  Trump isn’t there yet, but he’s getting closer.”

I don’t think so.

As for President Trump’s trade war, what is the end game?  It’s been nothing but incoherence and incompetence thus far.  One contradictory statement after another. 

Meanwhile, Canada holds its big election on Monday.  Prime Minister Mark Carney has a shrinking lead in the polls.  His Liberal Party would have been decided underdogs if President Trump hadn’t issued his absurd threats on making Canada the “51st state” that have unleashed a patriotic fervor in the nation.  But the Conservatives, and candidate Pierre Poilievre, have made a comeback as each tries to prove they are best equipped to deal with Trump.

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Wall Street and the Tariff Chaos, cont’d....

At 9:41 a.m. ET, Monday, shortly after the U.S. stock market opened for trading after being closed on Good Friday, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“ ‘Preemptive Cut’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many.  With Energy Costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other ‘things’ trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.  Europe has already ‘lowered’ seven times.  Powell has always been ‘To (sic) Late,’ except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to keep Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected.  How did that work out?”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“If the White House wanted a test of how firing Jerome Powell would go over in the markets, it succeeded on Monday. U.S. stocks and the dollar plunged while yields on long-term Treasurys climbed after President Trump renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve Chairman.

“Monday was the first full trading day for markets to absorb National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett’s comments Friday that the White House is studying if Mr. Powell can legally be fired.  On Monday Mr. Trump demanded again that Mr. Powell make ‘pre-emptive’ interest rate cuts to avoid a slowdown.  Cue the meltdown in stocks, bonds and the dollar, a trifecta of declining confidence.

“Mr. Trump is furious that Mr. Powell has said publicly that tariffs will likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth.  Mr. Trump conceded the growth point on Monday, lambasting Mr. Powell: ‘There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.’

“Markets fear Mr. Trump really might fire Mr. Powell, not that it would do the President any good.   He’d have to remove more than the Chairman to change the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates and tries to satisfy the central bank’s dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.

“Mr. Trump can’t fire the regional Fed bank presidents on the committee, and all 12 voting members of the FOMC seem to agree with the Fed’s recent policy moves. A Powell replacement would also have a harder time establishing credibility with markets....

“The Powell Fed’s policy is hardly tight in any case.  He’s in the process of ending quantitative tightening by no longer shrinking the Fed balance sheet, which amounts to easing. His public message is that the tariffs make fulfilling the Fed’s twin mandates more difficult. That’s undeniably true.

“The tariffs will cause at least a one-time increase in the price of tariffed goods, which may become more entrenched if the Fed accommodates them by cutting rates.  Meanwhile, they are increasing uncertainty for businesses and consumers, which will slow the economy and hiring.

“Mr. Powell stands ready to cut rates if the economy shows more weakness, even though inflation is still above its 2% target. The Fed’s preferred inflation index of personal consumption expenditures rose 2.5% on an annual basis in February, and 2.8% excluding food and energy. That’s not ‘virtually No Inflation,’ as Mr. Trump said Monday on social media.

“Mr. Trump thinks he can bully everyone into submission, but he can’t bully Adam Smith, who deals in reality. Markets know tariffs are taxes, and taxes are anti-growth.  The Trump tariffs are the biggest economic policy mistake in decades, and extending the 2017 tax reform and deregulation may not compensate for all the damage....

“All of this is tempting economic fate and contributing to a global ‘sell America’ narrative in financial markets.  That’s why the dollar is under pressure.  Smart Presidents pay attention to markets and adapt. The adaptation now would be to negotiate a quick end to the tariff barrage. Claim some trade-deal victories, and call it a day.

“But markets are spooked because they don’t know if Mr. Trump listens to anyone but his own impulses.”

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned last Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation” against restraints on central bank independence.

“There’s virtual unanimity among economists that monetary independence from political interference – that the Fed or any central bank be able to do the job that it needs to do – is really important,” Goolsbee said.

“I strongly hope that we do not move ourselves into an environment where monetary independence is questioned,” he said.  “That would undermine the credibility of the Fed.”

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the law on removing the Fed chair is clear.  “It says that he can only be fired ‘for cause,’” such as malfeasance or criminality. “You’re not going to find that with Jerome Powell.”

Powell’s term expires May 2026 and he can stay on the board until 2028.

Stocks cratered Monday in response to Trump’s threats, the major indices all down about 2.5%.

Tuesday, Trump then said he had no intention of firing Powell despite his frustration with the central bank not moving more quickly to slash interest rates.

“Never did,” Trump told reporters.  “The press runs away with things.  No, I have no intention of firing him.  I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.”  Stocks soared.

Also helping the market Tuesday, President Trump said the 145% tariffs on China could “come down substantially.”  And then on Wednesday, Trump said, “everybody wants to be a part of what we’re doing” and “everyone’s going to be happy.”

Answering questions from the Oval Office, Trump said the tariffs wouldn’t drop to zero, either, but he expressed confidence China would come to the table.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said Tuesday that he expects the trade war with China to de-escalate and believes a deal can be reached, and stocks reversed Monday’s losses, the major averages all gaining 2.5%+.

But the bounce back came despite fresh fallout from the administration’s tariffs. Defense contractor RTX said it was bracing for an $850 million financial hit, while Huggies maker Kimberly-Clark said a shifting “global geopolitical landscape” was partly to blame for a lower profit outlook.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said uncertainty was “too high,” holding back corporate decision-making and keeping asset prices under pressure.

Wednesday, Secretary Bessent then denied that the administration is considering unilaterally slashing steep tariffs on Chinese imports, telling reporters that high duties imposed by both sides need to come down mutually before talks can begin between the two economies.

“Neither side believes that these are sustainable levels,” he said.  “This is the equivalent of an embargo, and a break between the two countries in trade does not suit anyone’s interests.”

Bessent batted down a Wall Street Journal report that the administration is considering cutting tariffs on Chinese imports, in some cases by more than half, as a way of deescalating tensions and could also be considering a tiered approach.

Bessent said he would be surprised if the administration were having discussions on tariff cuts, noting, “No unilateral offer from the president to deescalate, not at all.”

However, he added, “I don’t think either side believes that the current tariff levels are sustainable, so I would not be surprised if they went down in a mutual way.”

“President Trump has been clear: China needs to make a deal with the United States of America. When decisions on tariffs are made, they will come directly from the president. Anything else is just pure speculation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.

Earlier Wednesday, Secretary Bessent leveled harsh criticism at the operations of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, even as he tried to reassure nervous investors that the United States would maintain its global leadership role.

“America first does not mean America alone,” he said in a speech at the Institute of International Finance.  “To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration and mutual respect among trade partners.”

Although Bessent said the IMF and the World Bank are “falling short,” he didn’t call for the U.S. to withdraw from the institutions as some conservatives have advocated.

He said the IMF “has suffered from mission creep” and “devotes disproportionate time and resources to work on climate change, gender and social issues.”

He said there were similar problems at the World Bank, which he said “should no longer expect blank checks for vapid, buzzword-centric marketing accompanied by half-hearted commitments to reform.”

Meanwhile, hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin said early actions from the Trump administration were eroding confidence in U.S. Treasurys, which he considers America’s most powerful brand.

“In the financial markets, no brand compares to the brand of the U.S. Treasury market, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the strength, the creditworthiness, of U.S. Treasurys.  No brand comes close,” Griffin said at a conference in Washington hosted by Semafor.

“We’re eroding that brand right now,” he added.  “We put that brand at risk.”

Griffin said: “When you tarnish that brand, it can be a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done.”

Griffin, a large GOP donor, said he agrees with the president on the need for the U.S. to reduce its deficit, cut spending, improve trade imbalances, and have foreign allies pay more for their own defense.

“The president’s spot-on right; it’s time that our allies pay more of the bill,” he said.

At the same time, however, “we’re moving too quickly, we’re moving too haphazardly, and we’re breaking a lot of glass.”

Stocks continued their rally Wednesday, the S&P 500 up another 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.5%.

But they were down at the open on Thursday after officials in China said they were not holding talks with the United States about easing trade tensions between the superpowers.

“There are currently no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States,” He Yadong, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said.  “Any claims about progress in China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations are baseless rumors without factual evidence.”

A spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jiakun, reiterated China’s stance, which is that the tariff war was started by the United States and that China would only engage in talks under certain conditions.  “China’s attitude is consistent and clear: If you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to talk, the door is open,” he said.

Stocks then nonetheless continued their rally later Thursday and into Friday (for the most part).

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Trump World, cont’d....

--Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is under fire again for sharing sensitive military details on the unclassified messaging app Signal, but in an additional channel separate from the one that got him and White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz into trouble last month, the New York Times first reported Sunday.

The second Signal chat included Hegseth’s wife, brother and personal lawyer, and it contained “flight schedules for the F/A-18 Hornets targeting the Houthis in Yemen – essentially the same attack plans that he shared on a separate Signal chat the same day that mistakenly included the editor of The Atlantic,” Greg Jaffe, Eric Schmitt and Maggie Haberman reported Sunday for the Times.

As before, a White House spokesperson insists “no classified information was shared.”  But that assertion regarding Waltz and Hegseth’s March incident “was viewed with tremendous skepticism by national security experts,” the Times reports.  And unlike the episode with Waltz and members of the White House’s principals committee, “some of the participants in the group chat created by Mr. Hegseth were not officials with any apparent need to be given real-time information on details of the operation,” which “is sure to raise further questions about his adherence to security protocols,” the Times writes.

Hegseth’s spokesman, and Monday, Hegseth himself, blamed “disgruntled former employees...who were fired this week.”  Those individuals, Sean Parnell said in a statement on social media, “appear to have a motive to sabotage the Secretary” while “the Office of the Secretary of Defense is continuing to become stronger and more efficient in executing President Trump’s agenda.”

Five top Pentagon officials either resigned or were suspended from their jobs last week.

“The last month has been a full-blown meltdown,” said former DOD spokesman John Ullyot, writing Sunday in Politico.  Ullyot quit last week after a reported power struggle with spokesman Parnell and amid the Pentagon’s internal leak investigation.

“From leaks of sensitive operational plans to mass firings, the dysfunction is now a major distraction for the president,” and “it’s hard to see Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remaining in his role for much longer,” Ullyot said.  He also alleged “More firings may be coming, according to rumors in the building.”

Hegseth went on Fox News Tuesday morning and ripped the “hoax press” and recently fired aides “spinning” lies.

The secretary said, “Once a leaker, always a leaker, often a leaker,” noting that an extensive probe will uncover who divulged U.S. plans for the Panama Canal or Elon Musk’s planned visit to the Pentagon to review war preparations against China.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“No doubt the Beltway press would love to knock Pete Hegseth out as Defense secretary, but that doesn’t come close to explaining the mess at the Pentagon.  The staff infighting, dismissals, and leaks over Signal app chats look to be the self-inflicted mistakes of a management neophyte.

“Three advisers were dismissed last week and hit social media to claim ill-treatment.  Another departed adviser published an account of what he called ‘a month of total chaos at the Pentagon’ in Politico.  According to multiple media accounts, Mr. Hegseth ran a chat on the Signal messaging app that discussed a military strike and included his wife and other associates....

“Mr. Hegseth was typically dismissive.  ‘A few leaders get fired and suddenly a bunch of hit pieces come out, from the same media that peddled the Russia hoax,’ Mr. Hegseth said Monday.

“But the media didn’t make up the staff turmoil, or the embarrassing Signal chat that Mr. Hegseth didn’t deny. Can you imagine Bob Gates talking about a military strike on an app with friends and family?

“All of this is news because it relates to whether Mr. Hegseth can handle the job. As GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell warned in voting against Mr. Hegseth’s confirmation, the desire to be a change agent isn’t a sufficient credential to run the giant Pentagon bureaucracy.

“If Mr. Hegseth is wise, he’ll use the staff shakeup to hire some loyal grownups who know the building, instead of the self-promoting isolationists he first brought in...

“President Trump gave Mr. Hegseth a vote of public confidence Monday.  But it’s no credit to either man that the Defense chief has spent his first weeks in office validating the confirmation concerns of his critics.”

--Trump on Truth Social, Sunday:

“Since our announcement of LIBERATION DAY, many World Leaders and Business Executives have come to me asking for relief from Tariffs.  It’s good to see that the World knows we are serious, because WE ARE!  They must right the wrongs of decades of abuse, but it won’t be easy for them. We must rebuild the Wealth of our Great Country, and create true RECIPROCITY. But for those who want the easiest path: Come to America, and build in America!”

--Trump on Truth Social, Sunday:

“Radical Lunatic Democrats and their Comrades in the Fake News Media are falsely making Kilmar Abrego Garcia out to be a very sweet and innocent person, which is a total, blatant, and dangerous LIE. Garcia has been found by two separate Courts to be a member of the violent, killer gang MS-13, was in our Country illegally, and is under a Deportation Order.  It is despicable and unAmerican for Liberals and the Mainstream Media to hate our Country so much, and be obsessed with protecting criminals, instead of working to keep our Border, streets, and families safe. Those lying to the American People on behalf of violent criminals have to be held responsible by the Agencies and the Courts.  MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Republican Sen. John Kennedy (La.) criticized President Trump and his administration on Sunday for their handling of the Abrego Garcia case. Kennedy was asked on NBC’s “Meet the Press” if he thought the law allowed Trump to send U.S. citizens who were criminals to foreign prisons.

“No, Ma’am.  Nor does it, nor should it, nor should be considered appropriate or moral. We have our own laws,” he said. “We shouldn’t send prisoners to foreign countries in my judgment.”

Kennedy said he did not see Abrego Garcia’s case as part of a wider pattern but called it a “screw up,” adding that Abrego Garcia should have had a hearing before being sent to El Salvador.

Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals wrote a week ago Thursday in the case of Abrego Garcia that the Supreme Court’s instruction that lower courts respect the executive’s primacy in foreign affairs does not “allow the government to do essentially nothing, referring to the administration’s attempt to dance around the meaning of “facilitate,” as in the Supreme Court’s guidance to “facilitate” his return to the United States.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The White House wants this to be a fight over immigration policy, and it claims Mr. Abrego Garcia is an MS-13 gang member.  But this is beside the legal point. No one denies that Mr. Trump has the power to deport an illegal migrant, especially a gang member.

“ ‘Perhaps’ he is a gang member, ‘but perhaps not,’ Judge Wilkinson wrote.  ‘Regardless, he is still entitled to due process.’  If he is, then the Administration should have no worries about a hearing to establish the point.  Mr. Trump may understand this because on Thursday he referred questions on Mr. Abrego Garcia to his lawyers. But ultimately this is his call.

His lawyers would profit in particular from reading the last part of Judge Wilkinson’s opinion, which the press has ignored. It’s advice to judges and the President to avoid a clash.

“ ‘Now the branches come too close to grinding irrevocably against one another in a conflict that promises to diminish both,’ he wrote.  ‘The Judiciary will lose much from the constant intimations of its illegitimacy, to which by dent of custom and detachment we can only sparingly reply.  The Executive will lose much from a public perception of its lawlessness and all of its attendant contagions.’

“There is much wisdom in those words.  Our constitutional system depends on checks and balances, but also on some flexibility in the joints of that balancing.  Mr. Trump may be able to get away with defying the courts on Mr. Abrego Garcia, but it isn’t worth the political cost for him or the country.  He has far bigger issues on which he will need the Supreme Court in the next four years.”

Early Saturday, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked the administration from deporting another group of Venezuelan migrants accused of being gang members under the expansive powers of a rarely invoked wartime law, the Alien Enemies Act.

“The government is directed not to remove any member of the putative class of detainees from the United States until further order of this court,” the court said in a brief, unsigned order that gave no reasoning, as is typical in emergency cases.

Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A Alito Jr. dissented.

More than 50 Venezuelans were scheduled to be flown out of the country – presumably to El Salvador – from an immigration detention center in Anson, Texas, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Separately, illegal border crossings, which at one point saw 250,000 Border Patrol arrests in a single month, dropped to around 48,000 in December, the last month of former President Biden’s term, and were just over 7,000 in March.

The Trump administration has credited the drop in crossings to its decision to send the thousands of active-duty troops to the border as a deterrent and its move to shut down a program known as CBP One, which migrants used to make appointments to ask for asylum.  As a result, tens of thousands of migrants who were awaiting a turn are now stranded in Mexico.  Many are now heading back to their communities.

--A draft White House executive order obtained by the New York Times proposes a drastic restructuring of the State Department, including eliminating almost all of its Africa operations and shutting down embassies and consulates across the continent.

The purpose of the order is to impose “a disciplined reorganization” of the State Department and “streamline mission delivery” while cutting “waste, fraud and abuse.”

The signing of the order would be accompanied by efforts to lay off both career diplomats, known as foreign service officers, and civil service employees, who usually work in the department’s headquarters in Washington, said current and former U.S. officials familiar with the plans.

The draft order calls for ending the foreign service exam for aspiring diplomats, and it lays out new criteria for hiring, including “alignment with the president’s foreign policy vision.”

Another provision in the draft order (which could always be changed) said the State Department would end its contract with Howard University to recruit candidates for the Rangel and Pickering fellowships, which are to be terminated.  The goal of those fellowships has been to help students from underrepresented groups get a chance at entering the Foreign Services soon after graduation.

Secretary of State Rubio then unveiled a plan Tuesday to significantly overhaul the State Department, which he called “bloated,” “bureaucratic” and “beholden to radical political ideology.”  About 15 percent of the domestic staff will be eliminated as part of the reorganization that will close one-sixth of its 734 offices and bureaus.

Officials said that closures of diplomatic missions and overseas layoffs are expected later.

--Driving around town, I occasionally hear advertisements for Cardone Capital and its real estate venture, but I forgot it was the same Grant Cardone who is a rabid Trump supporter.  As the market was slumping on Monday, he went on Fox News, as he is wont to do in such moments.

“Donald Trump has Plan A, one plan: ‘Make America great again,’” Cardone told Fox News viewers.  “There is no other plan and the short-term traders or the pundits on TV who are watching Wall Street, this is beyond your pay plan.

“This man is a master in negotiating. The negotiations take global levels that we’ve never seen before. He’s authentic. He’s transparent. And he knows what he’s doing and he will make America great again.

“You guys who are home, if you’re worried about your 401(k), your IRA, traders out there or bankers worried about your commissions, just step aside. This is not the time for Monday quarterbacking.  You’re not in the game.  President Donald Trump is,” he added.

Yippee.

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Wall Street and the Economy

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank held their spring meetings in Washington, D.C., this week.

Tuesday, the IMF slashed its forecasts for growth in the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs now at 100-year highs, and warning that further trade tensions would slow growth further.

The IMF released its update to its World Economic Outlook, just 10 days after President Trump’s universal tariffs on nearly all trading partners and higher rates – currently suspended – on most of them.

It cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage point to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage point to 3% for 2026.

“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.

“If we get an escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, that will fuel additional uncertainty, that will create additional financial market volatility, that will tighten financial conditions,” he said, adding the bundled effect would further lower global growth prospects.

The IMF expects U.S. growth to slow to 1.8% from 2.8% in 2024, and down from 2.7% forecast in January, and to 1.7% in 2026, citing policy uncertainty and trade tensions.

Gourinchas expects U.S. headline inflation to reach 3% in 2025, one percentage point higher than it forecast in January, due to tariffs and underlying strength in services.

The IMF forecast Canada’s economy would grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, instead of 2% growth projected for both years in January.

It predicted Mexico would be hard hit by tariffs, with its growth dipping to a negative 0.3% in 2025, a sharp 1.7% percentage drop from the January forecast.

The IMF forecast growth in the Euro Area would slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with both forecasts down slightly from January.

Germany’s growth forecast for 2025 was cut to 0.0%, and to 0.9% in 2026.

Growth in Britain would hit 1.1% in 2025, 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast, edging higher to 1.4% in 2026.

China’s growth forecast was cut to 4% for 2025 and 2026, downward revisions of 0.6 percentage point and 0.5 percentage point from the January forecast.

Japan’s growth for 2025 was cut to 0.6%.

Meanwhile, corporate CEOS, including the other day from the likes of American Airlines, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble warned that tariff threats make it virtually impossible to plan and are spooking consumers, as noted further below in some of Street Byte items.

American, Southwest and Alaska Air Group told investors and analysts that leisure travel has already softened, P&G is thinking of raising prices on some items, the auto companies are imploring President Trump to reconsider the 25% tariff on car parts that goes into effect May 3,  and other executives like Virgin Group founder Richard Branson said Trump could do lasting harm with his unpredictable trade policies that took a booming economy and shook it to its core. “It’s just such a pity because everything was going so bloody well up to about three months ago,” Branson said.

On the data front, new home sales for March were stronger than expected, a 724,000 annualized pace.  But March existing home sales of 4.02 million fell 5.9% in the month over February, worse than forecast, and down 2.2% from a year ago, as reported by the National Association of Realtors. That marked the biggest month-over-month decline since November 2022.

The sharp drop in sales dashes early hopes that this spring would offer signs of a turnaround. The season is usually the busiest time for home sales because many buyers with children want to move homes over the summer, and sellers wait until the spring to list their homes.

So far this spring, supply is increasing faster than demand. And with home prices near record highs and mortgage rates holding above 6.5%, buyers are being choosy.

The national median existing-home price in March was $403,700, up 2.7% from a year earlier and the highest median home price for any March, NAR said.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is -2.5%.  BUT...while this indicator has been very accurate in forecasting quarter-to-quarter, the methodology has received some criticism for being too negative in this particular quarter.  So they came up with an alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, and that is -0.4%.  The flows of gold amongst central banks, including China, have been immense amidst all the global uncertainty and it has impacted the Atlanta Fed’s model, really for the first time.  Fully understanding the flows is way above my pay grade.  But it will be interesting to see how this all bears out.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.81%.

Next week a ton of data releases, including an estimate of first-quarter GDP (the Atlanta Fed giving its final look the day before), the Fed’s key inflation barometer, the PCE, and the jobs report for April. We may begin to see the real impact of the tariffs in some of the data, the Federal Reserve’s next Open Market Committee meeting the following week, May 6-7.

Europe and Asia

We had the flash PMI readings for the month of April in the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, and the composite came in at 50.1, a 4-month low (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).

Manufacturing was 51.1, a 35-month high, services 49.7, a 5-month low.

Germany: manufacturing 51.6, services 48.8.
France: mfg. 50.3, services 46.8.

UK: mfg. 44.0, services 48.9.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“Manufacturing seems to be holding up better than expected. Despite the U.S. introducing general tariffs of 10% and car tariffs of 25% at the start of April, most manufacturers in the Eurozone are not too fazed. Instead of falling off a cliff, they’ve actually increased production for the second month in a row, and even more robustly than in March.”

Eurostat also reported on government debt as a percentage of GDP in the EA20 at the end of the fourth quarter, 87.4% vs. 87.3% a year earlier.

Germany 62.5%, France 113%, Italy 135.3%, Spain 101.8%, Netherlands 43.3%.

Turning to Asia...China...nothing on the data front.

Japan’s flash April PMIs had manufacturing at 48.5, services 52.2.

Street Bytes

--After a sloppy Monday on Trump’s threat to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell, stocks rebounded strongly on trade deal optimism, as well as talk from a few Fed officials publicly musing about possibly cutting interest rates in the near future.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammock (not a voting member this year) told CNBC the central bank could move as early as June if it has clear evidence of the economy’s direction. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (permanent voting member) similarly said he’d support rate cuts if President Trump’s tariffs start pushing Americans out of work.

But after Google issued solid earnings (see below), providing hope for the beaten-down tech sector, next week we have reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Apple, as well as earnings news from Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

On the week, the Dow Jones was up 2.5% to 40113, the S&P 500 4.6% and Nasdaq a whopping 6.7%.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.20%  2-yr. 3.76%  10-yr. 4.27%  30-yr. 4.74%

After a bit of turbulence Monday on the Powell job status talk, the bond market calmed down, but next week the PCE and jobs reports could move Treasuries.

--Natural gas futures dropped below $3/MMBtu, the lowest since late January, as record production and forecasts for milder weather reduced expectations for demand. Output in the Lower 48 states hit new highs in April, while the warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected through early May, lowering heating needs and allowing more gas to be stored.  At the same time, uncertainty over President Trump’s shifting tariff policies has raised concerns about slower global growth and weaker energy demand.

On the gasoline front, I have to beat a dead horse when it comes to President Trump, who once again, multiple times, said the price of gasoline at the pump was $1.98 in some states.  The lowest this week was in Mississippi at $2.68 (today), per AAA.  Gas is still five cents higher, nationally, than on Inauguration Day. I can’t stand bullshit, especially when we know there are hordes who actually believe it.

--Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on a post-earnings call with analysts that he would spend less time in Washington working for President Trump, maybe “a day or two per week” on Washington matters, probably for the duration of Trump’s presidency.

He spoke after the electric vehicle maker said it had earned $409 million, down from $1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2024.  The company previously reported net profit of $1.1 billion last year, but revised the figures to reflect changes in the way cryptocurrency assets are valued.

Tesla reported first quarter revenue of $19.34 billion, below the $21.43 billion Wall Street was forecasting and the $21.3 billion reported a year ago.  Tesla posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.27, missing the $0.44 forecast by analysts.

The company then said plans for new affordable vehicles are on track to start up production in the first half of 2025 and that it still expects Robotaxi volume production starting in 2026.  Along with Robotaxi testing, these were two big investor concerns heading into earnings.

But in the past, Tesla had promised to launch a lower-priced electric vehicle in the first half of 2025, along with other new vehicles that the company said would allow it to return to a 50% growth rate compared to 2023.

Earlier this month, Tesla reported first quarter deliveries of 336,681 units making it the worst quarter for deliveries since the second quarter of 2022.

Tesla blamed trade uncertainty as a reason behind slumping sales.

Musk said on the call that he told Trump that “lower tariffs” were better for the country but ultimately the decision on tariffs is up to the president.

Because of the uncertainty, Tesla said it would revisit its 2025 guidance in its second quarter financial update and removed its long-term growth forecast.

Tesla sales have been slumping not just because of trade uncertainty, but because of intense competition from Chinese carmakers like BYD, a lack of new models and Musk’s support of far-right causes, which has turned off some liberals and centrists from buying Tesla vehicles.

The stock did rally bigly on the news Musk was going to spend far more time on his Tesla work, but at $284 is still a mile away from the $488 high it set on Dec. 18 of last year.

--Wednesday, Boeing reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss on Wednesday, as the planemaker produced and delivered more jets, after a quality crisis and crippling strike shuttered production of most of its aircraft in late 2024.

Boeing has been delivering more planes and wants to boost output of its strong-selling 737 MAX jets to 38 a month in 2025, after production slumped last year due to a series of crises and a strike by about 30,000 U.S. West coast factory workers.

But Boeing faces pressures from supply-chain snags that have delayed production and dented its ability to cater to a booming aerospace market.  It reported an $11.8-billion loss for 2024 due to problems at its major units.

And there is the fallout from the trade war with China.

The company reported an adjusted loss of 49 cents per share during the first quarter, compared with analysts expectations of $1.29.  Revenue increased 18% to $19.5 billion in the quarter through March, slightly ahead of the Street.

Tuesday, Boeing announced the sale of portions of its Digital Aviation Solutions business, including navigation unit Jeppesen, for $10.55 billion, as part of a plan by new CEO Kelly Ortberg to reduce debt by selling off non-core assets.

A Boeing jet intended for use by a Chinese airline landed back at the planemaker’s U.S. production hub on Saturday, the first victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by President Trump.

The 737 MAX, which was meant for China’s Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle’s Boeing Field. [A second jet later returned as well.]

Boeing could end up changing customers if China refuses delivery of its 737 MAX jets, amid the trade war.  It’s happened in the past (after a paint job and reconfiguration changes), for example, in 2022, some planes destined for China ended up in India.

--A pullback in travel demand is hurting Southwest Airlines and the airline dropped its full-year business projections given uncertainty about the overall economy.

The airline on Wednesday pulled its estimates for earnings for 2025 and 2026, but affirmed that new initiatives to improve its financial performance are still on track.

Southwest reported a net loss of $149 million in the first quarter – a contrast to rivals United Airlines and Delta Air Lines that posted profits for the first three months of the year.  On an adjusted basis, Southwest’s loss of 13 cents a share was smaller than the 18-cent loss analysts were expecting.

The carrier said its first-quarter revenue was a record. But demand weakened throughout the quarter and sales softened, particularly for domestic leisure travel.  LUV shares fell on the news.

Southwest is in the process of converting its planes to add extra legroom sections and doing away with its hallmark open seating and unique boarding process, in hopes of convincing passengers to open their wallets.

Next month, Southwest plans to start charging many customers for checked bags, a seismic shift that provoked sharp outcry from the airline’s fiercely loyal clientele. The carrier hasn’t yet said what the fees will be.

--American Airlines withdrew its 2025 financial forecast on Thursday, mirroring its peers, amid concerns over discretionary budget pressures and government spending uncertainties that hinder the carriers’ ability to predict travel demand.

American is also reeling from higher costs associated with expensive labor contracts signed last year.

The legacy carrier reported a net loss of $473 million, or 72 cents per share, for the quarter through March, compared with a loss of $312 million, or 48 cents per share, a year earlier.

It had earlier forecast an annual adjusted profit per share of $1.70 to $2.70.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

4/24...119 percent of 2024 levels
4/23...109
4/22...88
4/21...101
4/20...117
4/19...79
4/18...99
4/17...120

--Apple lost its top spot in China’s smartphone market, dethroned by local rival Xiaomi as Beijing’s consumption-boosting subsidies help buoy demand for cheaper products.

The U.S. tech giant’s share of China’s highly lucrative phone market shrank to 13.7% during the first quarter from 15.6% a year earlier, dropping Apple to fifth place in the ranking, according to preliminary data from research firm International Data Corporation.

Despite claiming the top spot in the final quarter of 2024 with a marginal lead, the iPhone maker lost out to local rivals Vivo and Huawei on annual shipments that year.

In the first three months of 2025, Apple’s iPhone shipments in China dropped 9% to 9.8 million units, IDC said Thursday.  That said, it was the only non-Chinese brand to make it to the top 5, the data showed.

Chinese tech giant Xiaomi usurped apple to take the lead during the first quarter, with shipments up nearly 40% on the year.

Huawei, which like Xiaomi also makes smartphones and is involved in EVs, took second place in IDC’s ranking while consumer electronics firm OPPO came third. The two Chinese companies shipped 12.9 million and 11.2 million units during the first quarter, respectively.

Separately, Apple is seeking to import most of the iPhones it sells in the U.S. from India by the end of next year, accelerating a shift beyond China to mitigate risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

To achieve this goal, Apple would roughly double its annual iPhone output in India to more than 80 million units, according to Bloomberg.  Apple assembled just over 40 million iPhones in India in the fiscal year through March 2025. It sells more than 60 million iPhones a year in the U.S.

--The Justice Department on Monday urged a federal judge to loosen Google’s grip on the search-engine market by forcing a sale of its Chrome web browser, kicking off the latest phase of a landmark antitrust case.

U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, who ruled last year that Alphabet’s Google has illegally maintained a monopoly in online search, has set aside three weeks to hear arguments and testimony over what remedy he should impose to restore competition.

“We’re at an inflection point,” Justice Department lawyer David Dahlquist told Mehta on Monday.  “This court has an opportunity to remedy a monopoly that has controlled the internet for today’s generation and restore competition for decades to come.”

The Justice Department enters the trial with momentum on its side, having won a major ruling last week in a separate antitrust case against Google relating to digital advertising tools.  That decision, from a federal judge in Virginia, doesn’t have any direct impact on the search case before Mehta, but lent credence to arguments that Google has stifled competition.

So then after the close Thursday, Alphabet shares moved higher after the company’s first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations.

Adjusted earnings per share were $2.81 versus the Street’s consensus of $2.01, and up from $1.89 last year.   Revenue for the quarter reached $90.23 billion, above expectations of $89.17 billion and up 12% on the year.

“We’re pleased with our strong Q1 results, which reflect healthy growth and momentum across the business,” CEO Sundar Pichai said.  “Underpinning this growth is our unique full stack approach to AI.”

The revenue beat was built on the company’s performance in Search ads, its third-party ad network, and through other services like the Google Play store.

Google’s all-important Cloud unit was up 28% on the year to $12.26 billion, just $5 million shy of analyst expectations.

Alphabet projected capital expenditures of $75 billion for 2025.  It had guided to $17 billion for the first quarter and came in just above that.  Even with capex up 43% on the year, Alphabet still delivered $19 billion in free cash flow, up 13% from last year.

--IBM beat expectations and reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance but acknowledged that near term uncertainty could cause customers to pause their purchasing decisions or take a wait-and-see approach.

First quarter revenue edged up 0.5% from a year ago, to $14.5 billion and IBM reported adjusted earnings of $1.60.  Revenue from its automation business within software rose 14%.  Overall, software segment revenue rose 7%, to $6.3 billion.  The company sees continued strong demand for generative AI.

Infrastructure revenue fell 6%, to $2.89 billion.  IBM plans to introduce its next-generation mainframe in the coming months, which is built to allow customers to run several operations at once and provide support for artificial intelligence, large-language models, and big data sets.

For the second quarter, IBM sees revenue of $16.4 billion to $16.75 billion, better than expectations but at the midpoint about 3% lower than a year earlier.

The company said 15 of its government contracts were shelved under a cost-cutting drive by the Trump administration, a setback that eclipsed its otherwise upbeat revenue forecast and dragged its shares down 7% on Thursday.

While the impacted contracts amounted to about $100 million, less than 1% of the order backlog in IBM’s consulting unit, the cancellations fanned uncertainty at a time when U.S. tariffs already cloud the global economic outlook.

--Intel shares are down sharply as the company is buckling down for a difficult time ahead as new CEO Lip-Bu Tan begins a turnaround effort.

The company posted a quarterly loss on Thursday and gave a weak revenue outlook.  It said it would lower its operating expense target this year by $500 million and would reduce it by a further $1 billion next year.  Tan said in a letter to employees that layoffs would start this quarter and continue over several months, although he didn’t quantify how many employees would be affected.

Intel’s revenue was flat in its first quarter at $12.7 billion, above consensus.  It reported an $821 million loss, wider than the $381 million loss posted in last year’s first quarter.  It was the fifth consecutive quarterly loss, the longest streak since at least 1990.

Sales rose 8% in the division that sells chips for data centers and AI, a rare bright spot amid the gloom. Sales in its person-computer chip division – its largest segment – fell 8% to $7.6 billion.

Intel also gave a forecast of roughly $11.8 billion in revenue for its current quarter, lower than Wall Street forecasts of around $12.8 billion.  That’s the killer for the share price.

--PepsiCo on Thursday cut its annual profit forecast and warned of higher production costs and more volatility from President Trump’s on-again off-again trade tariffs.

The Frito-Lay maker posted its first quarterly profit miss in at least five years and forecast 2025 core earnings per share to decline 3%, compared with its previous expectation of a low-single-digit increase.

Adjusted earnings in Q1 came in at $1.48 per share, missing estimates by a penny.  Revenue fell 1.8% to $17.92 billion, slightly above consensus.

U.S. packaged good companies with sprawling international operations are bracing for a hit from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on trading partners as many of them import everything from raw materials to finished goods.

PepsiCo has two food plants in Mexico and two concentrate plants in Ireland. The 25% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which came into force in March, could also weigh on the company’s margins.

--Chipotle stock dropped over 4% on Thursday (but recovered) after its first quarter report missed expectations and it lowered its 2025 forecast.

It’s same-store sales declined 0.4% year-over-year, the first drop since Covid-19 shut down stores in 2020. Analysts had expected growth of 1.7%; it had clocked a 7% jump in the same period last year.

“We talked to consumers broadly about what is causing them to sit on the sideline in this economy, it’s really trying to save money, (and) uncertainty around what’s going on with the global economy,” CEO Scott Boatwright said in an interview.

“As we dig into specifically what’s going on with the Chipotle consumer, we’re not seeing a loss of customers. What we are seeing is a convenience challenge, meaning we need to build more restaurants as quickly as we can to get to our 7,000 restaurants in North America.”

Revenue did rise 6.4% to $2.88 billion, but that missed expectations of $2.94 billion. Adjusted EPS of $0.29 slightly beat estimates.

--CBS News entered a new period of turmoil on Tuesday after the executive producer of “60 Minutes,” Bill Owens, said he would resign from the long-running Sunday news program, citing encroachments on his journalistic independence.

In an extraordinary declaration, Mr. Owens – only the third person to run the program in its 57-year history – told his staff in a memo that “over the past few months, it has become clear that I would not be allowed to run the show as I have always run it, to make independent decisions based on what was right for ’60 Minutes,’ right for the audience.”

“So, having defended this show – and what we stand for – from every angle, over time with everything I could, I am stepping aside so the show can move forward,” he wrote in the memo, which was obtained by the New York Times.

“60 Minutes” has faced mounting pressure in recent months from both President Trump, who sued CBS for $10 billion, and has accused the program of “unlawful and illegal behavior,” and its own corporate ownership at Paramount, the parent company of CBS News.

In an emotional meeting with staff, Owens said, “It’s clear the company is done with me.”  Correspondents Lesley Stahl and Scott Pelley were in attendance.

During the meeting, Owens alluded to his displeasure with additional layers of oversight that CBS executives had placed on the program.  “In a million years, the corporation didn’t know what was coming up – they trusted ’60 Minutes’ to report the stories and program the broadcast the way ’60 Minutes’ saw fit,” he said. Any change to that arrangement, he added, created “a really slippery slope.”

Paramount’s controlling shareholder, Shari Redstone, is eager to secure the Trump administration’s approval for a multibillion-dollar sale of her company to Skydance, a company run by the son of tech billionaire Larry Ellison. She has expressed a desire to settle Mr. Trump’s case, which stems from what the president has called a deceptively edited interview in October with Vice President Kamala Harris that aired on “60 Minutes.”

--Donald Trump is holding a private gala dinner for the 220 biggest holders of his $Trump meme coin on May 22, the event described on the website as the “most EXCLUSIVE INVITATION in the world.”  The grift gets worse and worse.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: President Trump on Truth Social, noon, Wednesday:

“Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, ‘Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea.  There’s nothing to talk about here.’  This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion.  Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired?  The area also houses, for many years before ‘the Obama handover,’ major Russian submarine bases.  It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War.  He has nothing to boast about!  The situation for Ukraine is dire – He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the ‘killing field,’ and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE.  I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!”

At the same time, Vice President JD Vance threatened to abandon Russia and Ukraine peace negotiations on Wednesday ahead of a high-stakes meeting in London where the two nations were to discuss President Trump’s “final offer.”

“We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say yes or for the U.S. to walk away from this process,” Vance told reporters during his trip to India. “We’ve engaged in an extraordinary amount of diplomacy.”

Secretary of State Rubio, who was expected to take part in the London discussions, bailed on the summit, where the U.S. was expected to continue to push for a quick end to the conflict despite Ukraine’s commitment to keeping territory occupied by Russia.

The “final offer” includes official U.S. recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and “de facto recognition” of most of the areas Russia has occupied since the 2022 invasion, according to reports.

Ukraine would also be barred from joining NATO, but could potentially join the European Union, according to a one-page document outlining the key points of the proposal that was presented to European leaders in Paris last week.

Additionally, all sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 would be lifted and Washington and Moscow will pledge greater economic cooperation, particularly regarding energy production, Axios reported.

Ukraine in return would receive “a robust security guarantee” from European and non-European countries, but the details on what that would look like were not immediately clear.

A small part of the Kharkiv oblast occupied by Russia would be returned to Ukraine and it would have complete access to the Dnieper River.

Kyiv would also receive funding to help rebuild, although the document did not indicate where that money would come from.

In Sec. Rubio’s stead, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, was to represent the U.S. in London.

President Zelensky said his country will never accept Russia’s 2014 occupation of Crimea as legal, adding that doing so would violate Ukraine’s Constitution. He also said that Ukraine could not accept any prohibition against becoming part of NATO.

“There is nothing to talk about.  This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine,” Zelensky told reporters in a news conference.

On Wednesday afternoon, Yulia Svyrydenko, the Ukrainian economy minister, also vowed that her country “will never recognize the occupation of Crimea.”  Writing on X, she said that “Ukraine is ready to negotiate – but not to surrender.  There will be no agreement that hands Russia the stronger foundations it needs to regroup and return with greater violence.”

Of course any peace plan that leaves Russian forces deep inside eastern Ukraine would be welcome news in Moscow, as Vladimir Putin has said for a year that he would accept a cease-fire in which Ukraine withdraws troops from the four regions that Moscow has claimed as its own and drop its aspirations to join NATO.

Russia occupies nearly 20% of Ukraine.  A freeze would essentially force Kyiv to effectively surrender huge swaths of land to Russia and would violate the principles of self-determination and borders that has animated the United States and European nations to support Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.

A Kremlin spokesman welcomed Vance’s remarks.

“The United States is continuing its mediation efforts, and we certainly welcome those efforts,” Dmitri Peskov said.  “Our interactions are ongoing but, to be sure, there is a lot of nuances around the peace settlement that need to be discussed.”

The meeting between top U.S., British, French and Ukrainian diplomats Wednesday in London was then scrapped.

Earlier in the week, on Saturday, Putin declared a daylong truce for the Easter holiday, a gesture aimed at mollifying President Trump and putting pressure on Zelensky to follow suit.  Zelensky then said Russia violated the truce immediately, but Ukrainian officials acknowledged a general reduction in the intensity of Russian attacks.

Putin then said fighting resumed Monday, as he said he was open to any peace initiatives and expected the same from Kyiv.

Wednesday morning, nine people were killed after a Russian drone hit a bus transporting workers in Ukraine, with at least 30 injured.

Tuesday, a strike on an apartment block in Zaporizhzhia killed one woman and injured 20 others.

A massive drone attack the same day injured at least seven people in Kharkiv.

A strike on a building in Odesa Monday night injured three, local media reported.

At least last Saturday, Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners.  Russia’s Ministry of Defense said that 246 Russian service members were returned and President Zelensky said 277 Ukrainian “warriors have returned home from Russian captivity.”

But overnight Wednesday, Russia then pounded Kyiv with missiles and drones, killing at least 12 and injuring 90, as buildings were smashed in the biggest attack on the capital this year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X that the “brutal strikes” showed that Russia, not Ukraine, was the obstacle to peace.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“(Mr. Trump) can’t expect Ukraine to surrender and accept a peace on its knees. The Administration has said Kyiv can’t join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.  Never mind that the alliance would be stronger with Ukraine’s military, now highly experienced on the battlefield.  But even without NATO, Ukraine will need a security guarantee worth more than Mr. Putin’s word.  The Russian dictator has refused to accept a Ukraine armed by the West with European troops on its soil.

“Mr. Trump is angry that Ukraine won’t accept a deal that legitimizes Russia’s occupation of Crimea, as if this is a minor map revision. The U.S. refusal to credit territory seized by invasion is a principle intended to deter future marauders.  Letting Russia keep its navy in Crimea is a threat to Europe as much as to Ukraine.

“A peace, or even an armistice, worth the name requires compromise on both sides.  But Mr. Trump has applied pressure only on Ukraine.  Mr. Trump proposed a 30-day cease-fire and Mr. Zelensky accepted.  Mr. Putin simply blew off the proposal.

“Press reports say the Russian dictator is now pretending it’s a concession to freeze the conflict along current lines – instead of demanding entire provinces it hasn’t been able to seize. The lack of pressure on Mr. Putin is particular malpractice as the Russian dictator is struggling to drum up more troops. Why would Mr. Putin compromise if he will pay no price for refusing – not even more U.S. arms for Ukraine after the current supply runs low this summer?

“Mr. Trump likes to say Ukraine doesn’t have the cards, but it does have one ace: The President won’t be able to abandon Ukraine without paying a heavy political price.  As the historian and Stalin biographer Stephen Kotkin said in an interview recently, Americans hate war but they hate losing a war even more.

“President Trump may prefer to focus on a nuclear deal with Iran or his trade war with China, but he won’t leverage failure in Europe into success in Asia or the Middle East. A U.S. flag officer told Congress recently that China has provided 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the legacy chips that have allowed Russia to rebuild its war machine, and that’s a testament to how the world’s problems are now intertwined.

“Mr. Trump can still salvage a deal in Ukraine, but the current ‘final’ settlement offer looks like it would set up Mr. Putin to win the war now or later. The world’s rogues will notice, and Mr. Trump’s headaches will have only begun.”

Thursday, following the attack on Kyiv, President Trump offered rare criticism of Putin on Truth Social:

“I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV.  Not necessary, and very bad timing.  Vladimir, STOP!  5000 soldiers a week are dying.  Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!”

Overnight Thursday, Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched another 103 drones, killing three people in Pavlohrad, in Ukraine’s eastern Dnipropetrovsk region.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, told the BBC that Ukraine may have to give up land as part of a peace deal with Russia, amid the growing pressure from President Trump to accept territorial concessions.

“One of the scenarios is...to give up territory. It’s not fair.  But for the peace, temporary peace, maybe it can be a solution, temporarily,” he said.

But the 53-year-old former boxing champion-turned politician stressed that the Ukrainian people would “never accept occupation” by Russia.

--Lastly, a senior Russian military general was killed Friday in a fiery car bomb explosion in Moscow.

Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the main operations directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, died when the vehicle’s bomb was detonated remotely as the officer – who lived nearby – walked past. 

---

Israel/Gaza: Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, drew outrage Monday when he said returning Israeli hostages still held by Hamas is not the war’s “most important goal.”

Instead, with an ally like President Trump in office, Israel should reconquer the Gaza Strip, expel its Palestinian residents and occupy the land, he said.

“Bringing the hostages home is important, but it’s not the most important goal,” Smotrich said Monday in an interview with a right-wing radio station.  “The alternative to surrender is seizing the territory in the Gaza Strip and destroying Hamas.”

The comments unleashed a storm of condemnations from Israeli politicians, including some serving in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government.

And, as you can imagine, the criticism also came from the families of the hostages, who accused Israeli leaders of sacrificing their loved ones in favor of “total victory” over Hamas, which they say is not a realistic goal under the prime minister’s management of the war.

Twenty-four hostages are still believed to be alive, while Hamas and its allies hold the bodies of 35 more.

Last weekend, Israeli strikes in Gaza killed more than 90 people, Gaza’s Health Ministry said, as Israeli troops ramp up attacks to pressure Hamas to release the hostages and disarm.

At least another 50 were killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza on Thursday, health officials and first responders said.

And on a different matter, Israeli soldiers erred in killing 15 Gaza aid workers and violated orders when firing on a UN vehicle, the country’s military said Sunday in its report on the incident.

The military fired the unit’s field commander for giving an inaccurate and incomplete account when debriefed and reprimanded a brigade commander for his responsibility over the troops.

The conclusions offered a measure of vindication for Palestinian authorities in Gaza, who claimed the aid workers had proper identification on their vehicles and never should have been fired on.

Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called Hamas “sons of dogs” in a fiery speech in which he demanded the group release the remaining hostages, disarm, and hand over control of Gaza in order to end the war with Israel.

Abbas told a gathering in the occupied West Bank that Hamas had given Israel “excuses” to continue its attacks on Gaza, and told it to “release the hostages and be done with it.”

They were the strongest remarks against Hamas that Abbas has delivered since the war began 18 months ago.

Iran: Tehran and the U.S. concluded a new round of talks last Saturday in Rome in what Iranian officials described as a step forward, while opening the way for further talks next week.

But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered a guarded assessment after exiting the indirect negotiations held with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff.

“There is no reason for much optimism, and there is no reason for much pessimism either,” Araghchi told Iran state media.

Iran’s top diplomat said technical teams on both sides were to hold negotiations this past week and higher-level official would meet again before long.

A spokesman for Witkoff declined to comment on any demands the Iranians might make on assurances or other details in the negotiations.

“The president has been clear: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon or enrichment program,” the spokesman said.  “As we continue to talk, we expect to refine a framework and timetable for working towards a deal that achieves the president’s objectives peacefully.”

China: Beijing on Monday warned other countries against curbing trade with China in order to win a reprieve from American tariffs, promising to retaliate against countries that do so.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was responding to foreign media reports that President Trump’s administration was trying to pressure other countries on their trade with China as a negotiating tactic.

“Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not earn respect,” the ministry said in a statement.  “Seeking so-called exemptions by harming the interests of others for one’s own selfish and shortsighted gains is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will only lead to a lose-lose situation.”

China “firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” it said, adding that China would “resolutely take countermeasures.”

Separately, “China’s rare-earth mineral squeeze will hit the Pentagon hard.  From tungsten in armor-piercing rounds to gallium in radars, the Defense Department has built a warfighting enterprise with a supply chain that runs straight through China.  But recent developments threaten the Pentagon’s ability to maintain that enterprise,” Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reported Wednesday.

China’s suspension of rare-earth mineral exports to the U.S., going back to Dec. 2024 on some minerals and then expanded, tightens the faucet on materials needed for technologies from hypersonic-missile guidance systems to cancer treatments.

But as Tucker notes, the chokepoint isn’t mining; it’s refinement.  The U.S. often ships raw mineral precursors to China for processing and re-imports them as components.

And the above has everything to do with the following....

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“We interrupt the trade war with China to bring you warnings of literal conflict in the Asia-Pacific.  Beijing is escalating its military pressure on Taiwan, and if the Trump Administration doesn’t have a plan for how to respond, it needs one urgently.

“Four Chinese Coast Guard vessels embarked this month on a two-day patrol around Kinmen, a Taiwanese archipelago about two miles off the Chinese coast. Beijing started such patrols in February 2024, and it has since conducted 68 incursions into Kinmen’s waters.

“China claims its coast guard is carrying out routine law enforcement.  The real purpose appears to be to challenge Taiwan’s jurisdiction over its outlying islands. The patrols create opportunities for escalation if China wants to send a message to Taiwan or President Trump with an island blockade or seizure.

“It’s a dangerous game, especially with American special forces stationed on Kinmen.  China could demand that the U.S. and Taipei demilitarize the islands, betting that Mr. Trump would withdraw U.S. troops and urge Taiwan to capitulate rather than risk a larger confrontation....

“Adm. Sam Paparo, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned lawmakers this month that China’s aggressive maneuvers are ‘not just exercises – they are dress rehearsals for forced unification.’....

“The question is what the U.S. will do if China decides to make its move.  President Trump in the past has suggested that the threat of stiff trade sanctions against China would be his primary tool to deter Beijing’s aggression. The rapid failure – economically and perhaps politically – of his 145% tariffs on Chinese imports suggests he’ll need a new plan.”

India/Pakistan: At least 26 tourists were killed in the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir when militants opened fire on a group Tuesday, scores injured.

The attack, in a picturesque district of pine-covered hills and valleys that is popular with Indian travelers, was the worst assault against civilians in years.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned what he called a “terror attack” and said that “those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice.”

The Kashmir region, divided in 1947 between India and Pakistan, has been the site of separatist violence for decades, killing thousands.

The Pakistani government struck a measured tone, insisting that it has no interest in seeing tensions with India escalate.

But across Pakistan, people are watching with growing concern as Indian officials hint at the possibility of military strikes.

The Indian government has not officially identified any group as being behind the attack, but it announced a flurry of punitive measures against Pakistan on Wednesday.

The two nations then cancelled visas for their nationals to each other’s countries Thursday amid the tensions.

Pakistan closed its airspace for all Indian owned or Indian operated airlines, and suspended all trade with India including to and from any third country.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval rankings....

Gallup: 44% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapprove.  37% of independents approve (Apr. 1-14).

Rasmussen: 47% approve, 51% disapprove (April 25).  Was 51-47 last week.

Reuters/Ipsos latest poll, conducted April 16-21, has Trump with an approval rating of 42%, 53% disapproval.

Separately, 83% of the 4,306 respondents said that the president must obey federal court rulings even if he doesn’t want to, 13% disapproved.

A new Fox News poll, conducted April 18-21, showed Trump with an approval rating of 44%, down 5 points from the 49% he had in March, 55% disapprove.

The Fox poll showed 71% of voters view the economy poorly and 55% say it’s getting worse for their family.  Trump’s approval rating on the economy is at a new low, 38%, 56% disapprove.  Only 33% approve of his tariff policy, 58% disapprove.

President Trump posted on Truth Social that Fox owner Rupert Murdoch has told him for years that he would get rid of his “Trump Hating, Fake Pollster,” but he hasn’t done so.

“This ‘pollster’ has gotten me, and MAGA, wrong for years,” he said.

He also went after the Wall Street Journal, saying “while he’s at it, he should start making changes at the China Loving Wall Street Journal. It sucks!!!”

A CAPS/Harris poll, conducted April 9-10, finds that 39% of voters say the country is on the right track, an increase of 11 points since January.  Trump’s job approval rating was 48% after peaking at 52% in February in this survey.

Voters like Trump’s immigration policy, with 74% saying they favor deporting illegal aliens who have committed crimes.

But 84% of the poll’s respondents say they favor free trade, even as 66% agree that “tariffs are important to protect jobs in our country today.”

--A Gallup poll conducted April 1-14 and released last week found that confidence in Democratic congressional leadership plummeted to an all-time low of 25%, nine points below the previous low-water mark for Democrats – 34% - which was recorded in 2023.

The current rating is also well below the 45% average confidence level that Americans have had in Democratic congressional leadership since 2001.

The stunning lack of faith in congressional Dems appears to be driven by members of the Democratic party.

“Democratic congressional leaders’ rating among their own party faithful has fallen 41 points since last year to their lowest point ever,” Gallup said.

Confidence in GOP congressional leadership was measured at 39% - comfortably above the 24% low Republicans faced in 2014 and not far off from the party’s historical average of 43%.

It has been more than a decade since either party received at least a 50% confidence rating, according to Gallup.

--Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Senate Democrat for two decades and a leading liberal voice on Capitol Hill, announced on Wednesday that he would not seek re-election next year, closing out a 44-year congressional career.

The decision by Durbin, 80, was expected and it touches off what will be a crowded competition for a rare Senate vacancy in his solidly blue state.  He becomes the fifth sitting senator to announce a retirement, all of them over the age of 65.

--The Trump administration has grown so furious with Harvard University after a week of escalating fireworks between the two sides that it is planning to pull an additional $1 billion of the school’s funding for health research, according to reports.  They were surprised when Harvard released a ‘demand letter’ to the public.

In an open letter to the community, Harvard President Alan Garber said the list of demands made clear that “the intention is not to work with us to address antisemitism in a cooperative and constructive manner.”  And, he added, “We have informed the administration through our legal counsel that we will not accept their proposed agreement.”

Harvard’s release of the letter positioned the university as a face of resistance against the administration, as opposed to Columbia, which quickly agreed to their demands to try to recover $400 million in federal funding.

The White House initially froze $2.26 billion in funding for Harvard.  The administration also threatened Harvard’s tax-exempt status and ability to enroll international students.  These lines of attack have the potential to drain billions of dollars from the university.

Harvard then decided to sue the administration.  President Garber accused the government in a statement of trying to wield “unprecedented and improper control.”  He said the consequences of the government’s actions would be “severe and long lasting.”

Garber, in his statement, said that “as a Jew and as an American, I know very well that there are valid concerns about rising antisemitism.”  But he said that the government was legally required to engage with the university about the ways it was fighting antisemitism.  Instead, he said, the government has sought to control “whom we hire and what we teach.”

--Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s health department announced plans to phase out petroleum-based synthetic dyes from the nation’s food supply in a bid to ramp up pressure on an industry he has often derided.

The Department of Health and Human Services said it aims to work with the industry to eliminate six synthetic dyes from the food supply by the end of 2026.

The move comes as Kennedy has claimed that food makers have been allowed to “mass poison” American children.  He has frequently blasted controversial food dyes that can be found in candy, cereals, drinks and snacks, and he has made cracking down on color additives a top target of his “Make America Healthy Again” initiative.

Kennedy also wants to go after sugar. “Sugar is poison,” he said, “and Americans need to know that it’s poison.”

Critics of RFK Jr. say that while his goal of making the food supply healthier is laudable, the cuts he is making to scientific research grants, coupled with significant staff reductions at agencies like the FDA and the National Institutes for Health, will hinder his efforts.  The very same people who police the food industry, they pointed out, are now out of jobs.

--A handbag belonging to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem containing her passport, department security badge and $3,000 in cash was stolen on Sunday night at a restaurant in Washington, the department confirmed.  Noem’s bag also contained her driver’s license, medication, apartment keys and blank checks.

“Her entire family was in town including her children and grandchildren,” the department said via email.  “She was using the cash withdrawal to treat her family to dinner, activities and Easter gifts.”

--President Trump on Truth Social, Wed.

“I’m suing the law firm of Perkins Coie for their egregious and unlawful acts, in particular the conduct of a specific member of this firm, only to find out that the judge assigned to this case is Beryl Howell, an Obama appointment, and a highly biased and unfair disaster.  She ruled against me in the past, in a shocking display of sick judicial temperament, on a case that ended up working out very well for me, on appeal.  Her ruling was so pathologically bad that it became the ‘talk of the town.’ I could have a 100% perfect case and she would angrily rule against me. It’s called Trump Derangement Syndrome, and she’s got a bad case of it. To put it nicely, Beryl Howell is an unmitigated train wreck.  NO JUSTICE!!!”

--Last Friday night, the federal government’s online hub for news and information on Covid-19 redirected readers to a new White House website that blames China for the pandemic.

“Lab leak,” reads the banner on the website, “the true origins of Covid-19.”  President Trump has long touted the theory that the coronavirus was created in a Chinese lab.

The changing of the online resource comes amid Trump’s escalating trade war with China and ongoing criticism of his predecessors.  Dr. Anthony Fauci is blamed at the top of the page for not supporting the lab leak theory.

Trump’s new Covid-19 website features five arguments supporting the lab leak theory.  Among them was the explanation that Wuhan – the Chinese city where the virus first began spreading – is home to a prominent virology lab.

“The virus possesses a biological characteristic that is not found in nature.”

“Data shows that all Covid-19 cases stem from a single introduction into humans.  This runs contrary to previous pandemics where there were multiple spillover events.”

“Wuhan is home to China’s foremost SARS research lab, which has a history of conducting gain-of-function research (gene altering and organism supercharging) at inadequate biosafety levels.”

“Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) researchers were sick with Covid-like symptoms in the fall of 2019, months before Covid-19 was discovered at the wet market.”

“By nearly all measures of science, if there was evidence of a natural origin it would have already surfaced.  But it hasn’t.”

The information is sourced from the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, which released a comprehensive, 557-page report on its findings in December 2024.

The old website included information on vaccines, treatment and testing.  It included guidance for people with medical conditions.

The new site also says former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running for New York City mayor, committed “medical malpractice” in his handling of the pandemic.  And the website says the World Health Organization, which Trump began a 12-month process of withdrawing from when he took office in January, was “an abject failure.”

The White House’s website comes after a modest endorsement of the lab leak theory from the CIA, which assessed in January that the pandemic is more likely to have emerged from a lab than from nature but said it had “low confidence” in the assessment and that a natural origin for Covid-19 remains plausible.

--Trump’s messages to the people on Easter Sunday:

“We are, together, going to make America bigger, better, stronger, wealthier, healthier, and more religious, than it has ever been before!!! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!”

“Happy Easter to all, including the Radical Left Lunatics who are fighting and scheming so hard to bring Murderers, Drug Lords, Dangerous Prisoners, the Mentally Insane, and well known MS-13 Gang Members and Wife Beaters, back into our Country.  Happy Easter also to the WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Judges and Law Enforcement Officials who are allowing this sinister attack on our Nation to continue, an attack so violent that it will never be forgotten!  Sleepy Joe Biden purposefully allowed Millions of CRIMINALS to enter our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked through an Open Borders Policy that will go down in history as the single most calamitous act ever perpetrated upon America.  He was, by far, our WORST and most incompetent President, a man who had absolutely no idea what he was doing – But to him, and to the person that ran and manipulated the Auto Pen (perhaps our REAL President!), and to all of the people who CHEATED in the 2020 Presidential Election in order to get this highly destructive Moron Elected, I wish you, with great love, sincerity, and affection, a very Happy Easter!!!”

Gee, thanks, Mr. President.

--Disgraced former Rep. George Santos (R-NY), who lied about his life story and defrauded donors, was sentenced Friday to 87 months in prison, over seven years.

“Where is your remorse? Where do I see it?” U.S. District Judge Joanna Seybert asked.  She said the creep appeared to feel that “it’s always someone’s else’s fault.”

--The Vatican released the following message from Cardinal Kevin Ferrell, Monday morning, Rome time.

“Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow, I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, The Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the Father’s house.  His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His church.

“He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with faithfulness, courage, and universal love, especially for the poorest and most marginalized. With immense gratitude for his example as a true disciple of the Lord Jesus, we commend the soul of Pope Francis to the infinite merciful love of God, One and Triune.” [Def. Triune...three-one...Father, Son and the Spirit.]

After his long hospitalization with bronchitis, that then progressed to pneumonia, Pope Francis returned to his apartment in the Vatican and we were told he needed to rest for two months, before venturing out, but he was soon seen in the public, though clearly not well.

He fulfilled his papal duties right up to the end, meeting with prisoners on Holy Thursday, as was his tradition, and then greeting the faithful Easter Sunday (as well as meeting with Vice President JD Vance).  Francis got in the popemobile and went through the crowds, as was his wish, and then about 15 hours later, he died.

His predecessor, Pope Bendict, was seen as a guardian of orthodox doctrine and was more comfortable with books than crowds.

Francis, the first Jesuit to hold the position and the first pope from the Americas (Argentina), wanted to be amongst the crowds, often-beaming, always humble, yet deeply polarizing, especially among the clergy and the Vatican bureaucracy.

He captivated many liberal non-Catholics with his focus on poverty and human suffering and called climate change a moral issue that must be addressed. He rejected the perks of the papacy, shunning the palatial papal apartments in favor of the Vatican guest house.

During his first news conference as pope, when asked about gay men serving as priests – something his predecessor had strictly opposed – Francis answered, “If someone is gay and he searches for the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge?”

But Francis failed to live up to expectations in one prime area, failing to deal fully with the legacy of widespread child abuse by clergy members, though he made some strides.

He abolished the highest level of secrecy long used to protect pedophiles within the church but failed to satisfy victims’ demands for accountability.  And amid a new wave of allegations of sexual abuse by priests in 2018, Francis faced accusations that he had ignored 2013 warnings about alleged abuse by U.S. Cardinal Theodore McCarrick.

He did bring more transparency to Vatican finances, and the ideas of far-flung bishops were finally heard by the Vatican’s Curia, the bureaucracy.

So in the coming weeks, a conclave consisting of about 135 cardinals out of the 138 “princes of the Church” who are under age 80 and can vote will gather at the Vatican to pick the new pope. 

Four daily ballots will be held until a successor is selected. After 30 ballots, the top two candidates will be the only ones allowed; whoever gets a two-thirds majority will become pope.

But the choice will come down to the future direction of the church: whether to choose one who will follow Francis’ example of globe-trotting and championing the poor and further open up the institution, or to restore the more doctrinaire path of predecessors like Benedict.

One thing to watch in terms of Francis’ legacy is the fact he appointed a vast majority of the 135 cardinals who will be casting the ballots, Francis often choosing prelates who shared his priorities of being close to the poor, welcoming the marginalized and moving issues like climate change to the forefront.

I am going with Cardinal Parolin of Italy, 70, Francis’ secretary of state and a veteran Vatican diplomat, to be the next pontiff.

--More than 3.6 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2024 – a less than 1% advance from the prior year, according to a report from the CDC released Wednesday. The total fertility rate was around 1.63 births per woman, slightly higher than the 1.62 rate in 2023 but far below the 2.1 “replacement rate.”

--A man, 19, who authorities say didn’t properly extinguish a bonfire has been charged with starting a wildfire in Ocean County, NJ, that burned more than 15,000 acres, the largest wildfire in my state in decades. Thankfully, despite some scary moments, there are no injuries thus far, rain on the way.

The suspect set pallets on fire and left without fully extinguishing them. He has a prior record. 

--I posted last Friday afternoon not realizing the next day, April 19, was the 30th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing.    I was at a conference back then and saw the headlines from my hotel room before I had to give a presentation, and I don’t even remember what I said, but I know I led with the news.

Jason Collington of the Tulsa World reminded us that you can’t talk about Timothy McVeigh and why he picked April 19 without knowing that was the day two years earlier of the fatal fire at Waco, following the siege.

Actually, it was in 1992 that federal agents went to a remote cabin in northern Idaho after Randy Weaver, who was there was his family, failed to show up in court on illegal weapons charges.  During the Ruby Ridge standoff, Weaver’s wife and son, as well as a U.S. marshal, were killed.

Then in February 1993, the Waco Tribune-Herald newspaper started an in-depth series called The Sinful Messiah about the Branch Davidians, an offshoot of the Seventh-day Adventist Church, in Waco.  The series was named a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize “for stories that revealed sexual abuse and other criminal acts within the local compound held by members of the Branch Davidian cult.”

Brian Blansett of the Waco Tribune-Herald called the Davidians a “benign, if bizarre” group until the late 1980s, when a young man named Vernon Howell took over.  He soon changed his name to David Koresh and took advantage of the true believers, including the young girls on the compound.

The newspaper series started a day before the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms was planning to raid the place – six months after Ruby Ridge put the agency in the spotlight.

The first gun battle resulted in the deaths of four ATF agents and six Davidians.  After a 51-day siege, 76 Davidians died on April 19 after a fire was started in the compound.

Jason Collington of the Tulsa World writes:

“As the world watched during those 51 days, members of the public started arriving in Waco to see the siege for themselves.  One of the people on a distant hill watching the compound was 24-year-old Timothy McVeigh.

“He was selling pro-gun and anti-government bumper stickers on the hood of his car.  One of them read ‘Fear the government that fears your gun.’  Another said ‘Ban guns.  Make the streets safe for a government takeover.’

“He was interviewed by TV reporters.

“Two years later on April 19, McVeigh drove up to the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City in a truck loaded with a bomb. It was his response to what the government did in Waco and Ruby Ridge, he later said.

“ ‘One was the cause, and the other was the reaction,’ Blansett told me.  ‘The ATF could have arrested Koresh pretty much whenever they wanted. There was no need for a military-style attack.’

“One of the reasons McVeigh targeted Oklahoma City and the Murrah Building was its ATF office.

“ ‘It’s really sad.  None of those things had to happen,’ Blansett said of events at Ruby Ridge, Waco and Oklahoma City.  ‘Koresh needed to be in jail, but no one needed to die in order for him to get there. It’s a great tragedy.’”

Neither Donald Trump nor any White House officials attended last Saturday’s commemoration of the tragedy, while former President Bill Clinton, who led the mourning and the federal response to the bombing, did.  As did the representatives of the nearly dozen federal agencies who lost employees three decades ago.

Less than a week after the bombing, Clinton visited the city and spoke of the “duty” all Americans owed the victims “to purge ourselves of the dark forces that gave rise to this evil.”

Jason Collington said he spent the weeks before this anniversary talking to some college students who obviously weren’t alive at the time of the bombing but lived in Oklahoma City.  “They shared that (the bombing) was hardly a day’s discussion in their high school history classes.”

There are millions of young people across the country who have no idea about Oklahoma City and what led up to it.

OKC Mayor David Holt, a Republican, said Saturday that elected officials in particular bear “an obligation to speak and act against the forces that created the environment for this act of evil.”

In emotional remarks, Holt called the bombing site “a scar, a symbol of what humans can do to each other when they do not love each other, when they do not seek to understand each other, when they fail to acknowledge our shared humanity, when they dehumanize each other, when they entertain conspiracy theories, when they are willing to act outside of peaceful democratic processes, even to commit violence.”

Timothy McVeigh, a disgruntled Persian Gulf War veteran from 1991, rented a U-Haul truck containing a bomb constructed of roughly 5,000 pounds of agricultural fertilizer, racing fuel and other components that he had assembled with the help of a former Army buddy, Terry Nichols.  McVeigh lit the fuse and fled – only to be arrested a little over an hour later when he was stopped by an Oklahoma trooper because his getaway car didn’t have a license plate.

He was convicted of 168 counts of murder, among other charges, and died by lethal injection in June 2001. He never expressed remorse.

Nichols was convicted in federal and state court on charges including murder; he is serving life without parole in the federal supermax prison in Florence, Colorado. A third man, Michael Fortier, served more than 10 years in prison after he admitted that he knew details of the plot but didn’t tell anyone.

As Holly Bailey of the Washington Post reported the other day:

“Speaking before the Rotary Club of Oklahoma City, Steven Taylor, a retired chief justice of the state Supreme Court who presided over Nichols’ state trial, bemoaned the toxicity of American politics and discourse.

“ ‘Anger has become more pervasive than optimism. Compromise, which was the basis of our country’s founding, has today become a bad word.  We have forgotten how to disagree with one another,’ Taylor said.  ‘In honor and an obligation to the 168 who lost their lives to hate and domestic terrorism, we must repair the breach. ...The victims cry for it.’”

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

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Gold $3307...after touching $3500 on Monday, but only down $21 for the week
Oil $63.19

Bitcoin: $95,340 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]...huge week, up nearly $11,000

Regular Gas: $3.16; Diesel: $3.56 [$3.65 - $4.02 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 4/21-4/25

Dow Jones  +2.5%  [40113]
S&P 500  +4.6%  [5525]
S&P MidCap  +3.2%
Russell 2000  +4.1%
Nasdaq  +6.7%  [17382]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-4/25/25

Dow Jones  -5.7%
S&P 500  -6.1%
S&P MidCap  -9.3%
Russell 2000  -12.2%
Nasdaq  -10.0%

Bulls 23.5...fewest since Nov. 2008
Bears 35.3

Hang in there.  RIP, Pope Francis.

Brian Trumbore

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