There is only one official definition of a Santa Claus rally, that
being when stocks move up the last five trading days of
December along with the first two in January. [“Stock Trader’s
Almanac”] But over the years the term has been blurred and now
includes the entire month of December. So let’s take a look at
both for the past six years, in good and bad equity markets
overall.
S&P 500 [Month end closing prices…last 5 / first 2]
11/28/97…955.40
12/31/97…970.43….+1.6%…..+33.4% for the full year
12/23/97…939.13*
1/5/98……977.07….+4.0%
11/30/98…1163.63
12/31/98…1229.23…+5.6%….+28.6%
12/23/98…1228.54
1/5/99……1244.78…+1.3%
11/30/99…1388.91
12/31/99…1469.25…+5.8%…..+21.0%
12/23/99…1458.34
1/4/00……1399.42…-4.0%
11/30/00…1314.95
12/29/00…1320.28…+0.4%……-9.1%
12/21/00…1274.86
1/3/01……1347.56…+5.7%
11/30/01…1139.45
12/31/01…1148.08…+0.8%…..-11.9%
12/21/01…1144.89
1/3/02……1165.27…+1.8%
11/29/02….936.31
12/31/02….879.82….-6.0%……-22.1%
12/23/02….897.38
1/3/03…….908.59….+1.2%
11/28/03…1058.20
12/31/03……..?…..
*This date denotes the closing price prior to the last five trading
days in December, while the January date is the closing price for
the second trading day of this month.
—
Wall Street History returns December 12.
Brian Trumbore
