**GO 4TH ID**
—
[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Wall Street
So how did you celebrate the attainment of Dow 10000 on
Thursday? Personally, my own equity holdings underperformed
that particular day and I wasn’t exactly in the mood to do a jig
with Mrs. Fezziwig. But it’s funny seeing so many pundits act
like 10000 isn’t such a big deal. Of course it is. Can’t get to
eleven before you cross ten, I say, not that 11000 is in the cards
anytime soon, as I’ll attempt to lay out for you on 12/26 in this
space.
But for now there continue to be more things to celebrate than
not in the financial markets, with improved sales of autos and a
run on all things electronic being two of them, while the pace of
business spending both here and abroad also follows suit. It
seems safe to say the global recovery is gaining steam and the
Federal Reserve did its part in telling us that inflation remains
but a shadow, even as our bills for education, healthcare, and
property taxes rocket ever higher.
In holding the line on interest rates this week, as expected, the
Fed admitted it was no longer concerned about the ‘d’ word,
deflation (no one else has been for months, guys) and while
“output (is) expanding briskly” there just isn’t a need to raise
rates anytime soon. And in case you didn’t get the point, the Fed
released the minutes from its October meeting two days later and
contained therein was further confirmation of an accommodative
stance being the rule for much of 2004, if not all the way to
2005, or so they’d like to have you believe.
Well if this is the case, one of two things is going to happen. The
Fed will be right and Dow 11000 would be a foregone
conclusion, or they’re going to be very wrong, as inflation takes
hold in the face of Fed inactivity, a booming economy and a
growing energy shortage; at which point the bond market will go
absolutely ballistic (with rates rising 100 basis points on the 10-
year Treasury in two weeks), while stocks then take a header
onto the pool deck.
Of course there are other conclusions one can draw but I think I
covered the two extremes, sans a debilitating terror strike.
But let’s take a look at the Fed calendar for 2004. FOMC
meetings will be held on:
1/27-28, 3/16, 5/4, 6/29-30, 8/10, 9/21, and 11/10.
Just a few weeks ago I was convinced the Fed would raise rates
in March, 50 basis points (1/2 percent), after which it would
attempt to sit out the remaining election season. But this seems
very unlikely now, given the Fed’s rhetoric, so it’s May at the
earliest for Greenspan and Co. to move and August the latest,
since there’s no way the Fed acts in September, nor the week
after the election.
PIMCO’s Bill Gross weighed in on the inflation debate in his
latest missive (pimco.com) and any follower of his shouldn’t be
surprised to see him write of the U.S. “leading the worldwide
charge to reflate.” The evidence is too overwhelming and while
Gross does not call for more than an uptick in inflation in 2004,
by 2005 it’s Katy bar the door, though markets will of course
anticipate this (as they’re already beginning to…sniff…sniff…)
long before and react accordingly. Ergo, Gross would load up on
(in order of preference), 1) commodities / tangible assets, 2)
foreign currencies (as the U.S. dollar continues to take on gas),
and 3) real estate, despite what he admits is its “bubbly
appearance.”
Speaking of the dollar, finally, I see a real crisis coming, the one
that’s been talked about for years. The current decline has
served its purpose in bringing currency valuations into better
equilibrium, while aiding U.S. multi-nationals. But much
beyond this and we risk a freefall, with foreigners rushing
through security checkpoints at our nation’s airports in an
attempt to catch the next flight home, with their soon to be
repatriated assets in bulging money belts. And we all wish
President Bush and Treasury Secretary Snow would just shut up
on the topic. They’re doing more harm than good.
Street Bytes
–Despite the move in the Dow Jones, up 180 points, 1.8%, to
10042, Nasdaq treaded water, rising just 0.6% to 1949 as the
valuation issue came back into play even as there is growing
optimism on earnings for 2004. Separately, one can’t merely
discount the soaring price of energy, with natural gas now over
$7.00, and the impact this could have not just on consumer
spending but corporate profits as well for the larger users of the
product.
–One of the main reasons for the spike in energy is the swelling
demand from China and India. It’s not a new story, but it’s
finally getting the attention it deserves. It’s also why I’ll
continue to hold a good-sized chunk of my own assets in this
sector. I’m finally being rewarded for my patience.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 0.98% 2-yr. 1.81% 10-yr. 4.24% 30-yr. 5.09%
Bonds finished basically unchanged but needed a rally after
release of the Fed’s more sanguine October minutes to do so.
Earlier, Treasuries were spooked by the feeling the Fed was
preparing to raise rates in the spring.
–I agree with Fed Chairman Greenspan that China’s artificially
low currency is not costing as many U.S. jobs as some would
have us believe.
–In reporting on the mutual fund scandal, Business Week quoted
an SEC official on the relationship between the regulators and
the mutual fund industry’s trade organization, the Investment
Company Institute (ICI).
“Sometimes it seems the SEC and the ICI work so closely
together that they forget where one’s job begins and the other’s
ends.”
As for New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, he is going
after fund company Alliance, and the industry in general, to cut
fees, which is drawing intense criticism because it’s seen as
Spitzer finally crossing the line between law man and regulator.
I have been fully supportive of every move he has made to date.
On this he’s lost me.
–Continuing along the same lines, the SEC charged individuals
at Heartland Advisors with civil fraud, with one of the more
serious alleged offenses being the mispricing of some Heartland
bond funds. Coupled with late trading (which Prudential
Securities got slapped around on by the state of Massachusetts),
knowingly mispricing securities is an egregious offense. Too
often, bond fund managers are either lazy, are manipulating
prices to show stability over volatility, or there simply is no
liquidity in the individual holdings, thereby making the
establishment of a “fair price” at the end of the day exceedingly
difficult. But it’s the little guy, the schlep, the misfit, the
besotted who gets the shaft.
–The fallout from Philip Condit’s resignation at Boeing
continues amidst various investigations into the company’s ethics
in competing for government contracts. Stanley Holmes of
Business Week added, “The story of Philip Murray Condit, 62, is
the tale of a manager promoted beyond his competence and blind
to his own shortcomings.” Ouch! I also didn’t realize what a
jerk Condit was in his personal life.
But the whole Boeing debacle once again brings to mind
President Dwight Eisenhower’s brilliant Farewell Address of
1/17/61 (see “Hott Spotts” 9/11/03) and his comments on matters
such as this.
“In the councils of government, we must guard against the
acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or
unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for
the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”
–I have been remiss in not commenting on the New York Post’s
Christopher Byron and his terrific reporting of the Lancer hedge
fund fiasco, which has now turned out to be perhaps the largest
swindle ever with at least $613 million still unaccounted for.
What’s incredible is that the outfit never filed appropriate reports
when its individual holdings reached 5%, as required by law,
even though Lancer held 25-50% stakes in many different
entities, essentially penny stocks, which they then manipulated at
will. Even more remarkable is the issue of auditor
PricewaterhouseCoopers. It’s their job to pick up on crap like
this. Furthermore, despite all the evidence of wrongdoing, no
arrests have been made.
–Harry K. brought to my attention a wire service story, by way
of the Boston Globe, that talks of two managers of Harvard
University’s $19.3 billion endowment that stand to earn $20
million each. [The story was a bit unclear to me, “two managers
…could earn as much as $40 million,” thus I’m assuming
$20 million each. If it’s $40 million a piece, I’m committing
hari-kari.]
The endowment is up a measly 12.5% this year, 8.5% behind the
benchmark stock index, the S&P 500 (as of the date of the story),
though admittedly endowment managers never have anywhere
near 100% in equities. As Harry, a former bond trader up in
Canada, points out, “Back in my days, traders were the ones who
got the hockey player salaries and fund managers were guys in
cheap suits who were grateful if a dealer bought them a nice
lunch.”
Both Harry and I have never had a problem with traders, or
Vegas gamblers for that matter, let alone the likes of
entrepreneurs like Michael Dell making as much as they possibly
can. But there is something sick about a fund manager making
$20 million for doing what to us is a so-so job.
**At the time of the Globe / wire report, the S&P 500 was up
21%. So let’s say 60% of the endowment was in an S&P 500
index product. That’s 12.6% (0.6 X 21%). Then I’d put the
other 40% in PIMCO’s Total Return Bond Fund (managed by
Bill Gross), up about 5% for the institutional shares. That’s
another 2% (0.4 X 5%). Voila! 14.6%. Or you could split it
50/50…and come up with 13.0%. Seems to me these guys
‘under’performed. And a freakin’ monkey could do that, at little
cost to Harvard except fresh bananas and a hot water bottle. Is
this a totally fair comparison? Possibly not, but it’s close enough
to the truth if not bang on.
–Wall Street is expected to hand out about $19 billion in bonuses
this year, with leading CEOs raking in between $12 and $17mm
according to published reports. In New York City, the Street
employs 5% of the overall labor force, yet accounts for 15% of
income earned. So with the recovery in the local economy, tax
revenues will rise and Mayor Michael Bloomberg will finally see
a bounce in his dreadful approval ratings.
–Freddie Mac was fined $125 million by federal authorities for
manipulating earnings. Actually it was the British rock group
Freddie and the Dreamers that had the top twenty hit back in
1965, “Do The Freddie.” Yeah, that’s what the mortgage boys
did to the rest of us, gave us a Freddie.
–Not for nothing but giant Fidelity Magellan is underperforming
the S&P 500 by over 2% (including dividends). See above
discussion on monkeys as fill-ins.
–Back on 3/10/00, as Nasdaq hit its all-time high of 5048, the
Dow Jones closed at 9928. So 45 months later the Dow is
basically unchanged, but Nasdaq remains down over 60%. And
since a lot of investors had a substantial portion of their assets in
Nasdaq / tech-related issues, this is why so many still feel kind of
lousy about the whole deal.
Incidentally, 3/10/00 was historic for more reasons than one.
The Dow at this stage in the year was off 13.6%, but Nasdaq was
up 24.1%, the largest divergence in market history, if I recall
correctly.
–The average workweek rose 6 minutes in November, but this is
also when Michael Jackson was booked, so I would argue we
actually worked about 2 hours less. Just another example of this
whole “productivity miracle” being for the birds…the editor
wrote facetiously…sort of.
Iraq
Atacks on U.S. forces are supposedly down 50% in the past 2
weeks, though as Lucian Truscott reported in the Times
following a lengthy stay with the troops here, the “perception
among generals is that each decision is made with November in
mind.” Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich chimed in that the
administration has a “very serious problem” between the
implementation of President Bush’s flowing rhetoric and what’s
actually happening on the ground. And as I’ve noted before,
while the counterinsurgency methods being employed recently
certainly are bearing fruit, hopefully the costs in the battle for the
hearts and minds are limited.
But then you have the issue of the awarding of contracts for
reconstruction, with the Pentagon announcing this week that
Canada, France, Germany and Russia were being excluded from
bidding on the big jobs, though not necessarily from participating
in the sub-contract work that will trickle down. I imagine you
predicted my response.
We never should have been in this box in the first place because I
said long before the war started that we needed to negotiate such
matters with the power elite in smoke-filled, vodka-laced rooms
for the purposes of gaining military cooperation in both Iraq and
later Iran. Now, in adopting the right policy, the White House is
still paying a heavy price on the diplomatic front, at a time when
one thought fences were being mended.
But there is some hope the administration, and special envoy
James Baker, can swap debt forgiveness for the right to bid on
contracts, which is a respectable tradeoff. After all, at the end of
the day the United States needs friends, especially in the realm of
intelligence gathering, and these constant dustups may yet prove
costly beyond our wildest imaginations.
As for Halliburton and the investigation into its alleged price
gouging in Iraq (primarily through a subsidiary), I already
commented on this months ago. It was incredibly stupid politics
to involve the company to the extent it is in Iraq due to the
connection with Vice President Cheney. Period.
There was a notable positive development on the week in the
Iraqi sphere, that being the decision by Japan to proceed with its
deployment of 600-1,000 troops, which while the timing is still
up in the air it’s nonetheless a significant symbolic gesture and I
for one thank Prime Minister Koizumi for his leadership.
Lastly, overall this was a disastrous week for the White House on
the foreign policy front. As I will detail later, whether it was
Russia’s election or the war of words between China and
Taiwan, the administration is losing credibility with those of us
who promote freedom. So much for the glowing speeches of
November. The Bush administration is appeasing totalitarian
leaders, both actual and emerging. It’s distressing and I would
add; beware the Ides of March – March 14 and March 20,
specifically … presidential elections in Russia and Taiwan. We’re
about to learn more about the future and we may not like what we
see.
China
This week Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao came to Washington and
as expected Taiwan, not trade, was at the top of the agenda due
to Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s call for a March
referendum on removal of China’s 500 missiles targeting the
island. Earlier, China labeled Chen’s plan a “dangerous
provocation.” Then, in his remarks alongside President Bush,
Wen said that with regards to Taiwan, China sought “peaceful
reunification” amidst the old offer of “one country, two
systems.”
Well that’s pretty mild, right? And it’s the same old pitch China
has used for 50 years. But then Premier Wen got into the warlike
rhetoric that Washington should rein in Taiwan and that Chen’s
“separatist forces (are) using democracy as a cover to split
Taiwan away from China…and this is what we will never
tolerate.”
And President Bush? Last week I wrote the following.
“What’s worrisome to us Taiwan supporters, though, is that Bush
may use the opportunity to scold Taipei for unnecessarily
ratcheting up the tension.”
Bingo. Bush proceeded in no uncertain terms to make it clear he
“opposed” the referendum, after the White House earlier said
Taiwan was “pushing the envelope.” Bush also didn’t rein in
Wen’s war talk.
Look, of course the administration wants to keep the status quo
and it desperately needs China’s cooperation in pressing North
Korea to come to its senses. But Taiwan is already a free,
sovereign state (even if few recognize it as such). In response to
Bush’s call, President Chen said the referendum would go on as
scheduled as part of the March 20 vote, but that Taiwan will not
declare its independence. The vote on removal of China’s
weapons and renouncing the mainland’s use of force against
Taiwan is obviously noting more than an election gambit.
The Washington Post opined that President Bush “demonstrated
again how malleable his commitment to the defense of freedom
is as a guiding principle of U.S. policy.”
It’s a complex world. I understand that. I’m the one who called
for backroom negotiations over Iraq. I was right then. As for the
Taiwan / China spat, just what the hell do we stand for?
Russia
Columnist William Safire (New York Times) summed up
Sunday’s election results.
“Russia’s short-lived experiment with democracy is all but
dead,” adding, “(and it) remains a nuclear power with imperialist
pretensions.”
Even European election monitors labeled the vote a farce in
claiming it was “overwhelmingly distorted” by pro-government
bias, particularly the machinery of state-run television.
President Vladimir Putin’s personal party, United Russia, has no
real platform, it simply promotes him. But it garnered 37% of
the vote, a huge percentage given the vast number of parties in
play, and when coupled with the two other leading nationalist,
pro-Putin outfits – the nut-case Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s LDP and
the new Motherland Party, which polled 12 and 9 percent,
respectively – Putin now has a strong majority in parliament.
[The Communists saw their vote halved, from 26% in ’99 to
13%, while the liberal, political reform-minded parties failed to
hit the needed 5% level in order to maintain seats in the Duma.]
No doubt Russia’s economy is improving and Putin’s 80%
approval rating speaks to the peoples’ belief that order has been
restored, despite all the terror incidents. But here is how it’s
going to play out. Putin will win re-election next March and then
he will use his clout to change the constitution, giving him an
opportunity for a 3rd term in 2008.
This prospect is not good, and for all of Putin’s talk of continuing
with market reforms, it also seems apparent there will be
increasing interference in the private sector, as needed, such as in
the energy field. Putin needs the revenue / taxes desperately, not
only to tackle the nation’s still rapidly deteriorating
infrastructure, but also to build up his conventional military
force. The better to swallow up the neighbors, as Stalin might
have said.
Speaking of which, I’ll never forget the Stalinists I saw outside
the Kremlin walls when I visited Moscow a year ago. [I know
well the spot of this week’s car bomb, which could have been far
worse if the perpetrators knew where they were going.] There
they were, the poor, the elderly, singing paeans to Papa Joe. It’s
this quirk in the Russian psyche that I’ll never fully understand, I
guess, even as much as I feel I know the history. In a nutshell, it
scares the hell out of you.
More International Affairs
North Korea: There is still hope that 6-party talks will resume in
January, even as intelligence reports reveal disconcerting activity
at the Yongbyon facility. Are the orcs of Mordor moving nukes
around? But on the intelligence front the Los Angeles Times had
an extensive report raising the question as to whether North
Korea even has one nuke, a point about which I vehemently
disagree though it needs to be discussed because the issue
dovetails with the WMD search in Iraq. Unfortunately, moving
preemptively against the North isn’t as easy from a political
standpoint when taking into account recent history.
But if you take the stance of yours truly, that the commies are
hiding nukes and building a new one every 3-6 months, where
are they then? What is clear is we have absolutely no idea.
Back to the resumption of negotiations, Pyongyang is demanding
foreign aid, diplomatic ties, and security guarantees in exchange
for dismantling its weapons program, though every other day it
says it will only ‘freeze it.’ The North also wants to be taken off
Washington’s “sponsors of terrorism” list.
Well that’s quite a bit to swallow and the latest proposal
advanced by the U.S., South Korea and Japan is that Kim Jong il
would get a security guarantee only while he dismantles the
country’s nuclear facilities.
And for all of Washington’s reliance on China, it wasn’t very
helpful when Premier Wen said he didn’t think North Korea
desired to possess nukes in the first place and that Pyongyang
wanted a “nuclear weapons-free Korean Peninsula” as much as
the next guy.
Israel: The U.N. asked the International Court of Justice in The
Hague to look into the construction of the security wall
separating Israel and the Palestinian territories. But the vote was
interesting, 90-8, with 74 abstentions, the latter obviously
uncomfortable in approving such a measure with the precedent
it would set. The 8 who voted against were the U.S., Israel,
Australia, Ethiopia and the Pacific nations of Nauri, Marshall
Islands, Micronesia and Palau. Being very familiar with
Micronesia, I congratulate my friends there for exhibiting such
sound judgment.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Sharon hinted he would
dismantle some settlements unilaterally, but this could also lead
to a land grab in formalizing those that remain by redrawing
borders, so the Palestinians are none too happy. And for his part
Palestinian Prime Minister Qureia still refuses to crack down on
terrorists for fear of instigating a civil war.
Iran: The government acted as if it would approve snap
inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, as of
this writing, but there is zero cause to be optimistic. As in the
case of North Korea, way too much time has elapsed with
inaction on the part of the West.
Turkey: A big vote is taking place on Sunday in the Turkish-
Cypriot area of Cyprus and it potentially presents a real hurdle
for Turkey’s bid for European Union membership. Greek-
Cyprus joins the E.U. in ’04, but the Turkish region continues to
balk at reunification efforts as demanded by the E.U. before
advancing Ankara’s bid.
Greece: As the Athens Olympic Games rapidly approach, 15
members of the November 17 terrorist organization were
convicted of all manner of crimes, including murder. The group
is responsible for 23 deaths since the 1970s and would have
presented a major threat next summer had it not been dismantled
as it now appears to have been.
European Union: The proposed new constitution is hanging by a
thread due to the previously discussed issue of voting power.
The sign of things to come.
Canada: We welcome the arrival of Prime Minister Paul Martin.
One more year of Chretien and an invasion was inevitable.
Zimbabwe: President Robert Mugabe was flailing about, pulling
his nation out of the Commonwealth and thereby negating any
influence the latter can have on his nation amidst increasing
isolation from the entire solar system.
Random Musings
–Columnist Jim Hoagland / Washington Post
“The terrorists are accomplishing something the Bush
administration is accused of having neglected: They are
‘internationalizing’ this struggle. They are creating a strategic
nexus in which the United States, Europe, Russia and Asian
democracies will find common elements of threat and of
response.
“Much as Western countries fumbled through the opening phases
of the Cold War and were galvanized into common action by the
Berlin blockade, the Prague coup and aggression in Korea –
which cumulatively triggered the formation of a strong
transatlantic alliance – the world’s democracies will necessarily
come together to protect themselves against this new
totalitarianism.”
Can’t happen soon enough.
–Next spring, following extensive troop rotations, only 2 of 10
active-duty divisions in the U.S. military will be at full strength.
Sleep tight.
–I like Joe Lieberman. Don’t agree with too much of his
politics, but he’d be a good next door neighbor and he’s more
than competent at what he does. He also deserved better than the
treatment accorded him by that ultimate sleazeball, Al Gore. But
enough has already been said of Gore’s move to back Howard
Dean. More important are the comments of George Will when it
comes to Dean’s candidacy and the election in general.
“America needs what Dean seems intellectually and
temperamentally ill-equipped to provide – truly thoughtful
opposition in an election that should turn on two huge issues.
One is: How do we guarantee economic growth sufficient to
generate tax revenue to finance a welfare state whose entitlement
menu is being substantially expanded just as 77 million baby
boomers are about to retire? The second is: Can U.S. security be
attained without adopting foreign policy goals of unattainable
grandiosity – nation-building, regional transformations?”
–If you were stranded on a desert island for about 10 years and
came back last Sunday to see Hillary Clinton for the first time on
television you’d have thought, “What a sweet woman. She’s so
likeable.” And so she was as I caught her performance on “This
Week.” But then when Hillary appeared on “Meet the Press” the
She Devil re-emerged as she let loose with the poisonous venom
in a brief outburst, blaming “the right-wing apparatus” for our
nation’s problems. I half expected her head to do a 360. I don’t
know if I could survive a 2008 campaign in which she’s a
participant.
But to look at her a bit more dispassionately, by all accounts she
has performed ably as senator, though I still like my idea that she
will opt out of running for re-election to the Senate in 2006 in
order to devote full-time to her presidential bid in ’08 (assuming
a Dem defeat next fall). Remember, she would thus avoid a
bruising race, possibly against Rudy Giuliani, with a defeat here
crippling her future aspirations.
–I can’t believe how many pundits seem to think Republican
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is presidential timbre in 2008.
You’ve got to be kidding me. He’s been worthless.
–I agree with the likes of John McLaughlin, Tony Blankley, and
Pat Buchanan that at some point soon America needs to hold a
national service to honor the war dead from Iraq and
Afghanistan. It’s the right thing to do and it would only further
unify, not divide, the nation in its purpose. I would also advance
the idea of having Tony Blair, and the other coalition leaders
whose countries lost lives, attend.
–Much of the old broadcast services of Radio Free Europe have
now been discontinued as they are no longer required (though a
South Slavic one still exists). As Arch Puddington wrote in the
Weekly Standard, it’s easy to forget the tremendous contribution
RFE made with the likes of Czechoslovakia, Hungary and
Poland during those dark, depressing days under Sauron, the evil
eye of the Soviet Union. Now RFE successor networks need to
stand as an example to those trying to shape minds in the Middle
East.
–In another 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court upheld a key provision
of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance act, reinforcing the
ban on soft money and attack ads aired in the weeks before an
election. Writing for the majority, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor
blasted the “corruption, and in particular the appearance of
corruption” throughout the process.
But the other side believes McCain-Feingold is censorship and
impedes the right to freedom of speech. The NRA’s Wayne
Lapierre, noting that the major television outlets are owned by
some of the largest corporations, said:
“These conglomerates spend millions in political contributions to
influence legislation, but whatever they decide is news will be all
over the airwaves until Election Day. Somehow they are pure,
while AARP or the NRA is not.”
–Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger earned a significant victory
in the California legislature as he won approval for a $15-billion
deficit reduction bond, assuming a referendum slated for March
goes in his favor. The package, which includes constitutional
spending limits, won strong bipartisan support after a similar
measure had been defeated just a week earlier. The plan comes
on the heels of Moody’s decision to lower the state’s debt rating
to a level basically on par with Washington, D.C. and Bolivia. Is
this the great turnaround? Was your editor wrong to
underestimate the governor? Maybe, though I noted long ago
that if the economy moves in tandem with the overall recovery
across the nation, of course he’ll look good. Meanwhile,
Schwarzenegger dropped plans for an investigation into the
groping allegations. The time has come to move on, said an aide.
And just like that, “Poof!”
–San Francisco has a new mayor, 36-year-old Gavin Newsom,
who narrowly defeated a Green Party candidate. [It wasn’t Bush
Man, was it?….inside, Fishermen’s Wharf humor there. Sorry.]
Newsom promises to crack down on the vagrants and
panhandlers, while cleaning up what are some of the dirtiest
parks in America. Sounds like he has his act together.
[Great piece on HBO Sports last week on the ‘other’ city,
Oakland, and the success of the A’s and Raiders in the 70s.
Definitely worth catching if it’s replayed.]
–The FDA is recommending that pregnant women cut back on
their consumption of tuna fish due to high levels of mercury.
–Deaths from hospital-acquired infections have jumped from
19,000 in 1992 to 100,000 in 2002. In a somewhat related story,
it was disturbing to see former Senator Paul Simon die while
having what seemed to me to be fairly minor heart surgery.
–RIP, the Wall Street Journal’s great editorial page editor and
writer, Robert L. Bartley. A man who made a difference for the
better.
–The trial of William Janklow, a political legend in South
Dakota, on manslaughter charges was a most tragic one.
Janklow was convicted and faces a lengthy prison term after
running a stop sign and killing a motorcyclist earlier this year.
The congressman and former 4-term governor has a history of
reckless driving and will now resign his House seat on January
20. But what really shook some people up was the way Janklow,
a diabetic, based his defense on the premise he was suffering
from low blood sugar, arguing he had passed out, thereby
making him less responsible. A part of you, particularly those
with firsthand experience with diabetes, wanted to believe him,
not that this made things any better, but then you realized that
when the jury returned the verdict in just 4 ½ hours, no, it wasn’t
the diabetes, it was Janklow’s wanton disregard for the rules of
the road and this time it cost an innocent his life. He’s getting
what he deserved.
–In 1871, Ireland’s population was 4.05 million. By 1961 it had
fallen to 2.8 million. After all these years, and thanks to the roar
of the Celtic Tiger, 4 million once again reside on the Emerald
Isle.
–Speaking of Ireland, I missed the Miss World pageant, won by
Rosanna Davison, the daughter of singer Chris De Burgh (“Lady
In Red”). Miss Canada, Nazanin Afshin-Jam, was 2nd. Miss
Roberta Jones of China was 3rd………..just kidding. Guan Qi of
China captured the bronze.
–I got a kick out of the backdrop for the signing of the Medicare
bill by President Bush. There really should have been some
younger folks in the audience. After all, we’re the ones who are
going to be paying for this.
–Premier Wen Jiabao’s itinerary consisted of stops in the U.S.,
Canada, Mexico and…Ethiopia. He must have planned this
online. No human agent would have set this path.
–Mark R. reported back from his annual ski vacation in
Colorado. Bottom line, the prevalence of wild snowboarders is
ruining it for traditional skiers. It’s getting way too dangerous
on the slopes.
–George Will has an apt description of “Hardball” host Chris
Matthews; “The human Gatling gun.”
–Boy, did I catch a lot of heat last Saturday from my neighbors
over my new artificial tree. But then the Journal had a story that
a full 70% of today’s trees are fake. Darnit, my tree looks great
and I’m sticking with it. And with the money I’m saving I plan
on going to New Zealand to catch one of those “Lord of the
Rings” tours. So there.
—
God bless the men and women of the armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $410…the trend is your friend, or so they say.
Oil, $33.04…highest since March.
Returns for the week 12/8-12/12
Dow Jones +1.8% [10042]
S&P 500 +1.2% [1074]
S&P MidCap +0.6%
Russell 2000 +1.6%
Nasdaq +0.6% [1949]
Returns for the period 1/1/03-12/12/03
Dow Jones +20.4%
S&P 500 +22.1%
S&P MidCap +31.7%
Russell 2000 +42.9%
Nasdaq +45.9%
Bulls 57.3
Bears 23.3 [Source: Chartcraft]
Have a great week. Shop ‘til you drop. It’s the American way.
Brian Trumbore
