As part of the effort to wrap up 2003, while adding data to past
archives, I present the following.
—
Dow Jones Industrial Average
9/3/29… 381.17
7/8/32… 41.22 (all-time low)
11/23/54…382.74 ……yes, it took a few years to get back to the
’29 mark. Personally, I would equate this action to that of the
Nasdaq today and the Crash of 2000-2002. How long will it take
to get back to the old high?
All-time market highs
Dow Jones…1/14/00…11722
S&P 500…3/24/00…1527
Nasdaq…3/10/00…5048 [Inception was 1971]
12/31/99
Dow Jones…11497
S&P 500…1469
Nasdaq…4069
12/31/03
Dow Jones…10453
S&P 500…1111
Nasdaq…2003
S&P 500 (Total Return…including dividends)
1995…+37.4
1996…+23.1
1997…+33.4
1998…+28.6
1999…+21.0
2000…-9.1
2001…-11.9
2002…-22.1
2003…+28.7
Nasdaq
1995…+39.9
1996…+22.7
1997…+21.6
1998…+39.6
1999…+85.6
2000…-39.3
2001…-21.1
2002…-31.5
2003…+50.0
*The above for Nasdaq is really incredible. 9 straight years of
20% + or – volatility. In my “Week in Review” column I said
the Nasdaq would finish down 12% in 2004. I wish I had looked
at this before I wrote that. It would certainly be a departure from
the past.
Interest Rates…U.S. Treasury Yields
Date…….2-year….10-year
12/31/99…6.24…….6.43
6/13/03…..1.01…….3.10…historic lows in yield
12/31/03…1.82…….4.25
Gold
12/96…$368
12/97…$289
12/98…$288
12/99…$289
12/00…$272
12/01…$279
12/02…$347
12/03…$416
Oil (Light Sweet Crude)
12/99…$25.20
12/00…$26.80
12/01…$19.84
12/02…$31.20
12/03…$32.52
Terrorism
9/21/01…bottom after 9/11
Dow Jones…8235
S&P 500…965
Nasdaq…1423
And I present the following key market bottoms, gleaned from
my own data, as a comparison between the lows of the first Gulf
War and Gulf War II.
10/11/90…in the midst of the buildup.
Dow Jones…2365…trailing p/e 11.6, div. yield 4.2%
S&P 500…295…trailing p/e 14.1
Nasdaq…325
Bull / Bear readings: 32.2% / 53.7% [Source: Investors
Intelligence…a contrarian indicator]
10/9/02…in the midst of the buildup (again)
Dow Jones…7286…trailing p/e 20.5, div. yield 2.4%
S&P 500…776…trailing p/e 31.3
Nasdaq…1114
Bull / Bear readings: 31.0 / 39.1…interesting…another good
contrarian call.
*The difference in these two market bottoms in terms of
valuation is striking. Granted, in ’90 we were about to enter a
recession, while in ’02 we were emerging from a mild one, but if
you wanted to weigh all the evidence before making a market
forecast, you’d have to add this into the equation.
—
The above was gleaned from both Ibbotson Associates and my
own data, which I have painstakingly kept on parchment since
March 1990. Seriously. Steal my briefcase and you steal my
soul.
Next “Wall Street History” 1/16.
Brian Trumbore
