[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Iraq / WMD
In this space on 12/20/03, I wrote that the departure of the
chief inspector for the Iraqi Survey Group looking into weapons
of mass destruction, David Kay, was “rather disturbing.” I
further jumped the gun, as I often try and do, noting on 1/3/04
that Kay presents “a potential problem for the Bush
administration if he says too much in public.” Any doubters now
know what I was referring to.
In statements over the past week, Kay has been careful not to
blame the administration for the failure to turn up any smoking
guns and he has defended the White House against charges it
purposefully misled the American public in building the case for
forcibly removing Saddam.
Kay assigns the blame to the CIA for missing badly, citing the
lack of human intelligence, humint, on the ground as but one
cause for the failure. The U.S. and its leading allies, who share
equally in the debacle, failed to understand that the sanctions on
Iraq had severely hindered the effort to develop WMD, while at
the same time Saddam’s scientists were caught up in their own
graft and corruption, lying to their leader about progress being
made while, incredibly, Saddam sat around writing novels, or so
the picture that’s being painted has it.
This said, Kay backs up the White House claim that Saddam was
nonetheless “a gathering danger,” a thought in which I still
concur, noting that Iraq was a “marketplace of terrorism.” Kay
adds that today the political situation could yet “spin out of
control into civil war.”
But as Kay defends the president, I can’t help but be increasingly
disturbed by the role of Vice President Cheney, who himself by
week’s end was backing down some, saying there was “still work
to be done.” A new book on Tony Blair says Cheney blocked
the prime minister’s every effort to get U.N. backing for an
invasion of Iraq, for example, and I agree with those such as
Senator John McCain that a bi-partisan investigation of the
whole intelligence fiasco must be held, though the timing of one
is in itself an explosive issue given the coming election.
While many Republicans, including the President and his staff,
act as if the failure is not that big a deal, I have to remind you of
a quote I used back on 6/28/03 from conservative commentator
George Will.
“Americans seem sanguine about the failure – so far – to validate
the war’s premise about the threat posed by Hussein’s WMD, but
a long-term failure would unravel much of the President’s policy
and rhetoric.”
You have to keep going back to North Korea and Iran and the
impact our miscalculation in Iraq could have on both. What
we do know for sure, unfortunately, is that once again we have
little humint on the ground in either place, an obvious conclusion
given the recent findings that Iran is much further along than
initially thought with its nuclear program, as well as our inability
to pinpoint what the hell Kim Jong-Il’s Orcs are up to.
With regards to CIA Director George Tenet, I have to make note
I was way ahead of the game, 5/31/03, when in discussing the
lack of a smoking gun then I wrote “The President must fire
George Tenet to begin to control the damage.” Now, unless he
does so soon, Bush will pay some price at the voting booth.
Wall Street
Just another example of the adage ‘wait 24 hours’ as the stock
and bond markets got a bit hysterical when the Federal Reserve
opted to change the language ever so slightly on the statement
accompanying its decision to hold the line on the federal funds
rate, using the word “patience” in lieu of “considerable period.”
Traders took this as the long-awaited sign that the Fed will
finally commence a tightening phase sometime this year,
especially if it sees significant improvement in the labor market.
This was Wednesday, and stocks and bonds fell hard. But then
on Thursday, the Fed released the minutes from its December
confab (this whole process is ridiculous, by the way) and the
markets got a chance to see that Alan Greenspan’s Merry
Pranksters were really less worried about an imminent rise in
inflation, for example, than first thought, so the markets breathed
a little more easily, though everything it seemed, including
commodities, finished down on the week.
But while in the short run I see little reason to go crazy,
especially in the case of bonds until the 10-year Treasury is
closer to 5% than today’s 4.13%, I not only still believe the Fed
is raising rates in May, I also maintain that the overall tone for
both stocks and bonds will weaken considerably around the same
time as well.
What the short-term action continues to mask are some much
larger, longer-term issues that will begin to impact the market
and this week there was no lack of input from some of the
Street’s heavy hitters.
Bill Gross / PIMCO: “The bond market will be under pressure
from this point forward,” adding that the “corporate bond market
is very rich, overpriced.” Spreads on emerging market bonds
also concern him. In other words, as he’s warned for some time
now, the big money has long been made in bonds.
Stephen Roach / chief economist, Morgan Stanley: He questions
the staying power of the economic recovery because “the
consumer is drawing down savings, going further into debt”
while “the economy (is) running on fumes” thanks to tax cuts
and borrowing. Roach also continues to blast the government for
its “reckless, irresponsible fiscal policy” and he argues the
budget deficit must be cut. [Source: CNBC]
Speaking of this last item, the bi-partisan Congressional Budget
Office issued its latest estimate for fiscal 2004 (ending 9/30) and
it came up with $477 billion, $362 billion in ’05, and similar
numbers farther down the road. But since the CBO can only deal
with the facts as they’re known today, it can’t add on the costs
for making tax cuts permanent or for fixing the horrendous
alternative minimum tax situation, along with the war and other
items, plus Washington continues to use the Social Security
surplus to further mask the true picture.
Then on Thursday, the White House admitted the cost of the
recently signed Medicare legislation that includes a prescription
drug benefit is really about $530 billion, not $400 billion, an
unbelievable, staggering, stupendous…miss. Not that anyone
didn’t believe the initial number was a pipedream, but to get it so
wrong already is amazing. Thus the immediate impact is to take
us to a $520 billion deficit or thereabouts from the CBO’s $477
billion figure just two days earlier.
Folks, I agreed with most of the economic stimulus package and
I believe in low income tax rates, but this administration’s fiscal
policies threaten to send us over a cliff. I want to believe we can
grow out of much of the deficits as we did in the 90s, but the cost
of existing entitlements as you all know are about to begin to
explode, let alone the addition of new ones. It’s depressing…and
it will undoubtedly have a debilitating impact on future returns
for both stocks and bonds. Also, note to Rush Limbaugh, you’re
a little late to the game on this one.
Street Bytes
–The major averages all declined on the week, with the S&P 500
finally falling for the first time in 10. Both the Dow Jones and
S&P fell about 1% to 10488 and 1131, respectively, while
Nasdaq lost 2.7% to 2066. On the bright side, telecom
equipment giant Nortel absolutely knocked the cover off
the ball with its earnings report, citing high acceptance for its
wireless networking gear. Kudos to this Canadian company and
if a little of this rubs off on my corporate neighbor Lucent, all the
better.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 0.99% 2-yr. 1.83% 10-yr. 4.13% 30-yr. 4.96%
When all was said and done it was one giant whoopty-damn-do
this week as with the exception of the 2-year, interest rates
hardly budged, as bonds rallied back some on Friday due to a
softer than expected 4th quarter estimate of GDP, 4%. But this
will be revised upward over time and it’s already old news.
–I’m still a big believer in globalization, despite the pain it can
create. Alan Greenspan and Professor Jeremy Siegel weighed in
on the topic.
Greenspan told a London audience that “new jobs will replace
old ones,” acknowledging the current stress, however, and
reiterated that protectionism in defense of jobs will only lead to a
drop in the standard of living. Siegel (in a Journal op-ed piece)
said it’s important to remember we need the developing world’s
young people for a market as our own developed world’s
population ages. Like the two of them, though, I worry that
irrational behavior will win out over reason.
–Energy: Harry K. passed along the fact that natural gas
production in Canada decreased 3.6% for the most recent
reporting period. Not good. I’ll have more comments on energy
in a bit.
–Asia Watch: Regular readers shouldn’t be surprised by the
sudden rush to declare China’s economy and markets a “bubble,”
as I’ve been warning of this for some time. A Journal headline
on Tuesday read “China Stocks Evoke the Ghost of Bubble
Past.” But consultant Richard Fisher had a good take on CNBC,
that being one need just look at the Chinese (and much of Asia’s,
for that matter) penchant for gambling to understand what’s
going on in the markets here, citing the example of the action at
the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Well, I’ve been there and it was a
fantastic experience, as well as an object lesson that I had frankly
forgotten about. Meanwhile, in South Korea bad loans increased
23% in 2003, while Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell
to 4.9% when 5.2% was anticipated. As for India, a Senate bill
seeks to block further outsourcing, though the measure is highly
confusing to yours truly, while for its part India is seeking to tax
some forms of foreign earnings, this being equally befuddling.
The stock market here has been struggling recently.
–Asian markets have been relatively complacent over the spread
of bird flu, but investors need to be wary. Keep your finger on
the trigger switch just in case.
–Brazil saw its major equity index tank 6% on Thursday, mostly
on fears of rising inflation and interest rates. [See earlier
comments by Bill Gross on emerging markets.]
–Disney is ending its longstanding partnership with Pixar.
Chairman Michael Eisner, who has been an ineffective disaster
over the past 6 years, will be walking the plank. Actually, being
forced to listen to “It’s A Small World…” for 48 hours straight
would be penalty enough.
–A Senate bill bails out Corporate America, specifically major
airlines and steel companies, when it comes to their pension
obligations. Employers claim current rules require them to put in
too much money. Bottom line, the American worker is
increasingly seeing once promised benefits melt away and it’s a
tragedy of epic proportions. This legislation shouldn’t give
anyone a warm feeling.
–According to a Towers Perrin study, chief executive pay at
larger U.S. companies is on average 531 times hourly
employees’ wages, versus 25 Xs in Britain and 10 Xs in Japan.
[Gretchen Morgenson / New York Times]
–Exxon Mobil reported net income of $6.65 billion for the fourth
quarter, about the same amount as a new court judgment on the
1989 Exxon Valdez spill, still being litigated after all these years.
The original judgment was successfully appealed.
–Amazon.com reported that it earned 17 cents for Q4, without
any accounting gimmicks (29 cents with them), and it beat the
Street’s estimates on revenues as well as guiding higher for ’04.
So congratulations are in order for Chairman Jeff Bezos and I
have to admit I was very wrong about this company in 2001 /
2002. But about that share price and valuation…
–Google may be delaying its IPO, according to a report in the
London Times.
–Kraft is laying off 6,000, including 1,300 salaried workers in
North America.
–John Crudele (New York Post) and Matt Krantz (USA Today)
have been doing some good reporting on the confusion in
earnings releases, a problem for years now, with excessive write-
offs clouding the picture while making some year-over-year
comparisons look far better than they actually are. It’s just a
giant shell game.
–The ongoing investigation into Coca-Cola’s accounting
practices has now uncovered further “channel-stuffing”; ramping
up revenues at quarter end by slippery means, as 3 former
finance officials told of shipping excessive concentrate to Japan,
thus declaring it as a sale, whether bottlers there needed it or not.
–International air travel declined 2.4% in 2003 thanks to SARS
and the war, but the industry is projecting an increase for ’04 of
7-8%…assuming bird flu remains a minor issue for humans.
–Interesting development surrounding Europe’s discount airline
king, Ryanair, as a European Commission ruling will declare that
the carrier could no longer extract favorable terms from regional
airports and must repay some past concessions. The EC declared
Ryanair’s actions to be anticompetitive. This will clearly impact
the airline’s expansion plans. Separately, it also announced it
was slashing fares to beat out new upstarts. [The stock plunged
35% on the week.]
–Auditors investigating Italian dairy giant Parmalat now believe
the total debt was about $18 billion, as if you didn’t think it
could get any higher. For their part, the cows are exercising the
code of omerta.
–Inflation Update: Admittedly embarrassed, Mark R.
nonetheless reports that his wife and daughter were fuming their
haircuts were up 18 and 22 percent, respectively. Speaking of
haircuts, I realized on Thursday I had to go to my barber to get
the numbers for my Super Bowl box…4 New England, 8
Carolina, for those of you playing along at home. Mike, the
barber, was besides himself with his own box, 5/5. [Just call this
last bit, “Hair Bytes.”]
–BlackBerry pagers and cellphones are impacted by cold
weather and static charges. That’s why we recommend you wear
cotton and poly-blends in the wintertime, versus wool and
polyester, just as we do here in the home office of
StocksandNews.
–The investigation into the mutual fund industry’s misdeeds
continues on many different fronts, with the SEC about to settle
with 6 brokerage / financial planning firms on the issue of fund
breakpoints and clients not being awarded appropriate volume
discounts, as well as the big issue of directed brokerage and
hard-dollar payments by the fund companies to brokerage firms
in exchange for shelf space. The SEC may bar the latter practice,
which many fund companies would love from a P&L standpoint,
while the marketing honchos at the brokerage outfits would be
crying over the loss of their slush funds. It would also create a
mess as far as access to some firms by fund wholesalers, with the
clouding of the ‘focus group’ list, but then 99% of you shouldn’t
give a damn about this last point because it’s inside baseball, so
to speak.
Meanwhile, Putnam announced it was voluntarily reducing fees
on some funds, not a big deal, really, but that it would start
reporting the impact of brokerage commissions in the fund
prospectus, a huge deal. And MFS is in a heap of trouble, facing
$225 million in penalties, cuts in its management fees, and the
suspension of at least one top executive.
–Gateway, despite its dire problems, is acquiring privately held
eMachines. Since Gateway has been losing money for years, I’m
assuming they used cow chips in lieu of cash or stock to
complete the transaction.
–Kimberly-Clark reported strong earnings as sales of toilet paper
were up, which only makes sense since across Wall Street there
is a lot of stuff to clean up after.
–My portfolio: My significant energy holdings suffered through
a minor bout of profit-taking, and my new position in India took
it on the chin, but I was most discouraged that the Polish
exploration outfit I jettisoned just a few weeks ago is up over
80% since I did so. Yup, 80%. As Charlie Brown would say,
“Drat!”
International Affairs
China: President Hu Jintao made a triumphant trip to France,
with French President Jacques Chirac lavishing him with praise.
Chirac added that Taiwan’s March 20 referendum, critical of the
mainland, would destabilize the region and he further urged the
European Union to lift its ban on arms sales to China. Of course
it’s all about trade and many Taiwanese were none too pleased,
as you can imagine. Neither was Washington when it comes to
the arms embargo, first put into effect as a result of the
Tiananmen Square massacre.
[Chirac suffered a big blow when his preferred successor, former
Prime Minister Alain Juppe, was convicted on corruption
charges.]
Separately, Amnesty International cited 54 cases of Chinese
citizens being imprisoned for 2-12 years for expressing opinions
on topics such as Tiananmen, political reform and SARS on the
Internet. It seems virtually impossible that the Communists will
be able to avoid another huge clash with the people.
Russia: Secretary of State Colin Powell criticized Russian
democracy in an article for Izvestia, saying “certain
developments in Russian politics and foreign policy in recent
months have given us pause.” Powell went on to cite the lack of
a free press and voiced concerns over Russian intentions in
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. I have to admit I was surprised,
and pleased, with the secretary’s candor.
Israel: The first major suicide attack within Israel since
Christmas Day killed 10, at last word, a day after a gun battle in
Gaza killed 8 Palestinians, the latter cited in a note left by the
suicide bomber. The same day as the attack, Israel was dealing
with the first step in a prisoner exchange, whereby over 400
Arabs will eventually be swapped for an Israeli businessman and
the bodies of 3 Israeli soldiers. The country seems split between
those who see this as being more than a bit disproportionate and
those who seek to move on.
Afghanistan: 7 U.S. soldiers were killed in an as yet unexplained
explosion at a weapons dump, while one British and one
Canadian soldier were killed in separate incidents, in case
anyone needed reminding the mission is far from accomplished
here. Columnist Peter Brookes also noted that the flourishing
drug trade in the country is financing the guerrilla war, yet the
U.S. is loathe to send the Army after drug kingpins. But the
biggest battle in the country is going to be over the new High
Court and whether it imposes a strict interpretation of Islamic
law.
Iran: The controversy over the upcoming parliamentary elections
has reached a critical stage as the hard-line Guardian Council
continues to reject a large group of moderates and their
candidacies, though this could be overshadowed shortly if
Tehran allows a U.S. congressional delegation to visit in less
than two weeks as rumored. It would be the first such official
contact since 1979.
Pakistan: President Musharraf, at great personal risk (but then
he’s used to it by now), has been exposing the nation’s nuclear
scientists, heroes to the people, as criminals and traitors for
selling nuclear technology to Iran. And while Musharraf does
not want U.S. forces on Pakistani soil, searching for bin Laden, I
believe it will be Pakistan that finally turns him over to the U.S.,
assuming Musharraf isn’t taken out beforehand. Peace talks with
India, by the way, are slated for February 16-18.
Libya: The regime has begun shipping documents and materials
used in the making of WMD to the U.S., a most positive
development.
Britain: It was quite a week for Prime Minister Tony Blair. First,
he eked out a 5-seat victory in Parliament over his controversial
Higher Education bill that hikes university tuition by up to 200%,
and then the next day he had to deal with the conclusion of Lord
Hutton’s inquiry into the suicide of weapons inspector David
Kelly and whether Blair and his cabinet were culpable in any
way. Hutton, highly respected by all sides, cleared the prime
minister of any wrongdoing and instead blasted the BBC and
reporter Andrew Gilligan, the latter having used the term “sexed
up” in claiming the government was embellishing Iraq’s WMD
capability.
The BBC immediately faced a crisis, particularly with its charter
up for review in 2006, and both the chairman and director-
general stepped down in disgrace as Hutton slammed the lack of
editorial oversight on such a critical story. The family of David
Kelly also couldn’t have been too pleased with Hutton’s
conclusion that Kelly was “not an easy man to help.”
But it’s important for outsiders to understand that the British
people are still largely lined up with the BBC on the whole war
issue and for his part Blair can ill afford to be too smug about it.
At least that’s my reading of the situation from here in New
Jersey. Actually, I think Blair will be stepping down by year end
in favor of Gordon Brown, citing health reasons.
Thailand: Islamists are killing Buddhist monks in the south of
the country in an attempt to stir up a region wide conflict…the
bastards.
Turkey: Prime Minister Erdogan is now prepared to let the U.N.
decide the issue of Cyprus and unification of the Greek and
Turkish Cypriot territories. Should this be cleared up, Europe
would then have no excuse not to accept Turkey’s formal
application for E.U. membership, but conservatives in Germany
and elsewhere remain vehemently opposed.
Random Musings
–George Will said the other day that people don’t make their
presidential choice based on the Veep slot, which is almost
always the case, but I must note that my last vote for George
Bush in 2000 was as much based on Dick Cheney as it was on
the president and I guarantee I was far from alone in this regard.
This time, while many are already talking of a Kerry / Edwards
ticket, clearly Edwards has to win in South Carolina before this
begins to make any sense. You wouldn’t put a ‘loser’ in that
slot, would you? But those touting New Mexico Governor Bill
Richardson could be bang on; Hispanic, respected, foreign
policy expertise, executive experience.
–I have to go back to last week and what was undoubtedly a
cryptic comment to 95% of you regarding Howard Dean’s web
site. When I was up in New Hampshire, I checked out the
candidates’ pages and then decided where to go. They were all
pretty good on scheduling except for Dean’s, where they clearly
pumped too much money into technology and zero into
execution. Who cares about the fancy stuff, just tell me where
your freakin’ candidate is speaking.
You know, it reminded me of my own axiom since day one of
my professional career; attention to detail, as in “you don’t go
home without returning every call,” and these days, e-mails.
Because of the latter it’s not as simple as before, but the Dean
kids, ever so tech savvy, blew it. It’s called lack of life
experience, for starters. I am duly unimpressed.
–By the way, what happened to Dean’s money? And what a
lousy job reporters did in uncovering this issue. It’s like one
minute he was still raking in gobs of greenbacks, the next we’re
hearing he has nothing more than some coins in a coffee can.
–The current government in India is calling for a new election in
about 60 days, a fairly normal process here and in some
European countries; to which many in the U.S. say, gee, I wish
our election campaigns were this short. I used to feel the same
way, too, but I’ve had a change of heart. Look how long it took
some Democrats to see a different side of Howard Dean, or to
take a harder look at John Kerry. In a 60-day campaign, and
assuming some cursory knowledge of Dean beforehand, would
he have emerged the nominee? Then again, maybe a Joe
Lieberman would have fared far better due to his recognition
factor. It just seems like our electoral system, warts and all, at
least prevents parties from making huge mistakes.
–Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has suddenly reversed course
and is now advocating the addition of 30,000 troops to the
military, admitting current force levels are stressed to the max.
The secretary is labeling this only a “temporary” move, meaning
about 5 years. It’s about time the old grouch saw the light.
–The White House has plans to scale back the FAA budget by
16%, particularly funds targeting air-traffic control. So we have
enough for a rainforest in Iowa, but not for this.
–The 9/11 Commission is looking for a 60-day extension, May
to July, to complete its report but the White House doesn’t want
the findings released too close to the election. One thing we’re
hearing is just how pitiful the airlines and FAA were. For
example, other government agencies had thousands of terrorists
on their lists, but the FAA had all of 12…12…because the others
were not deemed risks to both commandeer and fly airplanes.
–New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman had this solid
observation about the Arab world.
“I attended a breakfast at Davos (site of an economic forum) on
the outsourcing of high-tech jobs from the U.S. and Europe to the
developing world. There were Indian and Mexican businessmen
there, and much talk about China. But not a word was spoken
about outsourcing jobs to the Arab world. The context –
infrastructure, productivity, education – just isn’t there yet.”
–In Britain, medical scientists are leaving the country over
threats to animal testing at some research facilities looking into
brain disorders, because Animal Rights terrorists want to shut
down the practice of working on monkeys. The laws against
criminal activity on this front are very weak in the U.K. and the
researchers are right to fear for their lives. [London Times]
Britain has some of the best minds when it comes to the search
for cures for diseases such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s and
it’s a tragedy that we find ourselves at the mercy of the
extremists.
Broadening it out, the issue is similar to that faced in the debate
over the environment and since I have received a few notes
recently on the topic, as well as my experience with the Kucinich
crowd in New Hampshire, a green lot, I feel compelled to
summarize my viewpoints…for hopefully the last time.
I have been consistent on the following:
I am against the moves taken by the Bush administration when it
comes to enforcing the clean air and water acts. It is bogus to
continue to let Midwestern factories, for example, get away with
using inferior technology in the area of emissions.
I believe both political parties have wimped out on fuel
efficiency standards, particularly with regards to SUVs. Give
Detroit a reasonable target and penalize them heavily if it isn’t
met (and none of this re-classification B.S.). Believe me, Detroit
would then find a way.
I believe that we must spend more research dollars on alternative
fuel sources (though this is where our deficit problems hurt), but
we cannot escape the fact that oil will be a primary fuel source
for decades to come. The global community needs to understand we
face a real crisis by 2007, if not sooner, unless more oil is found.
We aren’t running out, but from a supply / demand standpoint the
price could skyrocket unless we drill more for both crude and
natural gas. This calls for compromise, like in the case of the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and, say, O&G projects in the
front range of the Rockies. I’m for ANWR, but against most
initiatives I have seen for Montana and Wyoming, to cite two
impacted states.
[Admittedly, we’ve already screwed around so long, ANWR
wouldn’t be ready for years.]
I am for upholding the Endangered Species Act, but here too we
need to exercise common sense. We must remember that
humans are more important than snail darters, but would I then
protect, for example, grizzly bears at the expense of future
development, probably yes. Is this perhaps a bit arbitrary? Yes.
I’ll give you a great example. For years in the west of Ireland,
environmentalists fought developers over a Greg Norman golf
course in the town of Doonbeg, because activists sought to
protect a microscopic snail. Finally, the project was approved
and a compromise to protect some of the land was reached (to
the detriment of the final course layout, incidentally), but at least
Doonbeg got to see some much needed economic development.
But most of the time you have a situation like my friend J.M.
currently faces in New Jersey, where a needed housing
development is being blocked because of a ridiculously small
environmental concern. Approval for half the original project
may yet be granted, at last word, but the town where it’s being
built now faces a fiscal crisis because it needs the revenue that
the full complex would have generated.
But what it all boils down to, regardless of the situation, is the
need for compromise and on this I see no hope. Otherwise
rational observers, such as you and me, will often disagree
vehemently on such issues, and when it comes to the totally
irrational element, such as the Earth Liberation Front, or the
above cited British example that got this all rolling, it will turn
increasingly violent.
–Those of you who know I went on the QE2 last year at this
time and also saw the “60 Minutes” piece the other day on the
ship may get a kick out of the fact my wine steward, Tommy
Gallagher, was interviewed; a terrific fellow I turned into a beer
man, being the only one in my dining room ordering bottled beer
at dinner. He loved it. They also showed the damn computer
room I complained about so much in my reports. As the story
had it, to enjoy the QE2 you need to have a lot of patience, of
which I have zero.
–Fish update: Not that I’m suddenly shying away from farmed
salmon, but smaller fish such as Tilapia carry less risk of PCB
contamination, so I’m going from “Salmon Sunday” to “Tilapia
Tuesday.” However, U.S. News & World Report reminds us
salmon lovers that you can reduce any risk by cooking it so that
the fat drains away. In other words, get out your George
Foreman Grill!
–Finally, it was a tough week in Iraq. Monday, 7 Iraqi
policemen were gunned down for collaborating with the
Coalition. Tuesday, 6 U.S. soldiers were killed. Wednesday, a
car bomb exploded outside a Baghdad hotel, and, as I go to post,
word of at least 3 more U.S. soldiers killed in a Saturday attack.
The cause is just, but at the same time I’m not so sure the
administration always conveys the right message.
Dan L., an old friend of mine, passed along this letter from the
New York Times that his father, Irwin, had published following
President Bush’s State of the Union address. Frankly, this
sentiment went right over me as I watched the speech that night.
I’m disappointed with myself for failing to pick this up.
1/22/04
To the Editor:
Re “Bush, Somber and Determined, Stresses War Against
Terror” (front page, Jan. 21):
I cannot believe that President Bush did not mention the more
than 500 American service members who have been killed since
the invasion of Iraq.
The least he could have done was to pause for a moment of
silence in their memory.
Irwin L.
Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
Amen.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $403
Oil, $33.05…big drop, but not yet meaningful.
Returns for the week 1/26-1/30
Dow Jones -0.8% [10488]
S&P 500 -0.9% [1131]
S&P MidCap -1.8%
Russell 2000 -2.6%
Nasdaq -2.7% [2066]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-1/30/04
Dow Jones +0.3%…nothing, considering all the hoopla.
S&P 500 +1.7%…as January goes, so goes the year…maybe.
S&P MidCap +2.1%
Russell 2000 +4.3%
Nasdaq +3.1%
Bulls 55.0
Bears 19.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
