[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Mistakes Were Made
There are some in this country, particularly inside the Bush
administration, who are clearly surprised at the strength of the
insurgency in Iraq. You shouldn’t be.
“Week in Review,” 5/17/03…I began with the following quote
from an editorial in Defense News.
“U.S. leaders now must guard against the arrogance that comes
with success and after leads to catastrophe.”
Later in that same column I wrote, “postwar Iraq has been an
unmitigated disaster and what hurts most is the fact that we are
rapidly losing our ability to reshape events in countries like Syria
and Iran, which for many of us was as big a reason to go after
Saddam as the threat posed by his weapons of mass destruction.”
This was eleven months ago, folks. I also quoted noted military
affairs expert Ralph Peters that week as he opined Secretary of
Defense Donald Rumsfeld “want(ed) our troops to do the
occupation on the cheap.”
Even much maligned Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz
averred then that “I think there are people in our government
who underestimate the danger(s).”
Then on 5/24/03 I quoted Republican Senator Richard Lugar.
“Transforming Iraq will not be easy, quick or cheap. Clearly, the
administration’s planning for the post-conflict phase…was
inadequate.”
I could go on, including President Bush’s ill-advised message to
the terrorists in Iraq, 7/2/03, “Bring them on,” but going back to
the 2000 election many of us voted for Bush because of the all-
star cabinet he appeared to be assembling. These days, though,
it’s obvious there are fierce divisions within the White House
and we can only hope that Bush is up to the task of being final
arbiter. As I wrote on 3/20/04 in this space, “We will know
whether we lost far sooner than we’ll be able to declare victory.”
The United States will stay the course, of this I have no doubt,
but at what cost? What if another crisis requiring significant
manpower (i.e., North Korea) pops up? The military is stretched
to the max as it is.
It’s frustrating as hell to some us that this White House has been
incapable of admitting a single mistake when it comes to the
postwar phase and now that we’re entering the real political
season, I’m sure they’re thinking it’s too late to do so because it
could further influence behavior at the polls.
If you didn’t think beforehand that Iraq is close to spiraling
totally out of control you probably do now. Secretary Rumsfeld
looks like an old fool these days during his briefings and you
undoubtedly have a better idea now where I was coming from
when I said the generals aren’t all heroes or brilliant strategists.
Many are just bureaucrats, scared to question policy and
Pentagon authority. Of course we need more troops. We needed
them from day one but some generals in the field won’t make the
request while Rumsfeld feverishly works on his legacy and the
theory that lean and mean can still carry the day.
So now we have the risk of full-scale civil war, as moderate
(relatively speaking) Shiite cleric al-Sistani goes up against
terrorist al-Sadr for control of the Shia hearts and minds, while
the Sunni wreak havoc in an area that was untouched during the
initial war. History will show this last bit to be a colossal
mistake.
We have allies that are backing off from the fight and a new Iraqi
police force that is overmatched, ill-equipped and in some cases
disloyal. The new modus operandi by the terrorists of taking
hostages is testing resolve and the reconstruction effort will
suffer. Plus, as Ralph Peters wrote on Friday, it’s obvious the
U.S. is really now at war with Syria and Iran; the two that have
the most to lose with a free Iraq on their doorstep and the ones
that are providing the insurgents with both weapons and
manpower.
As for the latest sentiment in the United States, a Pew Research
survey had bad news for the White House. Suddenly, only 40%
approve of Bush’s handling of Iraq, though 57% still say it was
the right decision, as do I. But his overall job approval rating is
43%. Just a week ago a USA Today / CNN poll had it at 53%.
Then we have the 9/11 commission. Let me say again I believe
this is useful and the 9/11 wives deserve credit. We are learning
a lot that otherwise would have been covered up, not just by the
White House but by the intelligence bureaucracies as well. It’s
now up to this and future administrations to implement changes,
particularly in the realm of communication flow, before it’s too
late. [On this last point, friends in the know tell me it has already
improved.]
Where I vehemently disagree, however, is with the attitude
among some 9/11 family members; first and foremost this was an
attack on America. It goes to Richard Clarke’s smarmy apology.
As Bush advisor Karen Hughes put it on “Meet the Press,” it
“presents a misplaced sense of responsibility…as if someone in
government is responsible. Al Qaeda is responsible.”
I understand those who disagree with this opinion, especially in
light of Condoleezza Rice’s testimony on Thursday. While the
Washington Post found it “exceptional” it may surprise you that
having watched the entire performance I was underwhelmed by
the content. That said, I’m assuming the now key August 6
briefing memo is not a smoking gun, despite a report as I go to
post that there may be more embarrassing evidence to the
contrary. It was a different time, prior to 9/11. Clearly,
mistakes were made and the commission’s final report, which
will undoubtedly reach some harsh conclusions, will then be
there for history. But as a nation we must move on, because this
war has just begun.
Wall Street
The markets took the news of the escalating crisis in Iraq largely
in stride, with the broad averages all slipping just a bit. The Dow
Jones fell 0.3% to 10442, the S&P 500 was off 2 points to 1139
and Nasdaq declined 5 points, 0.2%, to 2052. Had Iraq not been
in the headlines, the news on the economic and corporate front
would have more than reversed the slight losses. True, Nokia
disappointed in a big way by announcing its first quarter sales
were off 2% when just last January the company predicted
growth of 3-7%. And Alcoa’s earnings were solid yet a little
below expectations, but otherwise, you had the likes of Dell
upping its sales forecast for the quarter while Yahoo simply blew
away Street estimates with its report card, sending the shares
soaring $7 on the news. [Of course the valuation is still nuts, but
anyone shorting Yahoo the past year would have long been
buried in the Meadowlands.]
Also on the positive side of the ledger is rising confidence among
the nation’s business leaders with layoffs at the lowest levels in 9
months. Corporate executives are increasingly optimistic on
employment, the service sector is booming, hey, what the heck is
not to like, except for the stray geopolitical issue or two?
Well, a renewed surge in oil prices doesn’t help and if crude
hangs out in the $35 range (it closed above $37) it certainly
mitigates the impact of the latest round of tax cuts. And,
separately, it would help if Europe got its economic house in
order, though this seems to be a fleeting possibility as the
European Commission once again reduced its growth forecast
down to 1.7% for 2004, saying “the balance of risks appears to
have shifted to the downside.” Germany is struggling, for one,
as unemployment here ticked up to a whopping 10.4%.
Overall, the European Union economic system simply seems to
be breaking down, not a big surprise to some of us. 6 of the 12
E.U. nations are smashing through their deficit targets, for
example, which speaks to the issue of how can you prevent
individual governments from acting in their best interests (as in
taking measures to stoke the economy) while attempting to
adhere to E.U. mandates?
On the positive side you still have most of Asia’s economies
performing in an admirable fashion, with Japan and its latest
GDP forecast of 3% contributing for the first time in about 15
years.
As for bonds, the 10-year Treasury finished the week at 4.20%,
up slightly in yield, but now back in the 4.10-4.60% range that
had been established from last July through essentially mid-
March before rates plunged back below 4% to the 3.65% level.
In other words, we’re again in an environment, at least on this
front, where yours truly won’t sound any real alarm bells until
we crack the 4.60 level on the upside, though I remain in the
camp that believes the Federal Reserve is way behind the curve
in fighting the inflation threat.
Street Bytes
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.03% 2-yr. 1.86% 10-yr. 4.20% 30-yr. 5.03%
Holiday-shortened week. Far more economic indicators to
review next time.
–A General Accounting Office study found that 60% of U.S.
corporations didn’t pay any federal taxes for 1996 through 2000.
Overall, corporate taxes made up just 7.4% of federal revenues in
2002. [Wall Street Journal] Personally, I agree with Larry
Kudlow (“Kudlow & Cramer”). Abolish the corporate tax. For
starters, you’d eliminate most of the incentive for corporate
chicanery (you’d still have those manipulating earnings,
however), and it would obviously make us far more competitive
globally.
–New York area airlines are boosting flights up to 10% this
summer. Don’t plan on getting anywhere on time.
–Last week I wasn’t able to comment more fully on the
Microsoft – Sun Microsystems settlement, though this week the
Journal summed it up perfectly. Consumers are now calling the
tune, insisting that “warring suppliers make their products work
together.” There are simply too many incompatible products.
–5-year annualized fund returns as of 3/31/04:
Large Cap Growth -0.5%
Large Cap Value +2.2%
Small Cap Growth +6.5%
Small Cap Value +16.5%!
Intermediate Bond +6.5%
S&P 500 Funds -1.7%
[Source: Lipper]
–General Electric’s revenues rose 10% in the first quarter.
–Headline in the Wall Street Journal this week: “Limited
Partnerships Make a Comeback.” Inside the story, “unwary
investors may be playing with fire.” Just what I told you last
review.
–I noted last week that the Tyco mistrial should be laid at the
feet of those idiots in the media who divulged Juror #4’s name
and I stand by that. The Journal opined, “Anyone who wanted to
tamper with her or any other juror could also have done so long
before we published her name.” What a crock. We have since
learned, though, that the “threatening” letter which precipitated
the fiasco was written by a man who not only revealed his name
and signed the letter, but he thought there had already been a
mistrial and police don’t think there is any reason to file criminal
charges. Juror #4, though, said she felt in danger but would have
voted to acquit the defendants in the end, regardless. A total
mess but, again, it was inexcusable to release her name.
–The New York Post’s Christopher Byron on the host of “The
Apprentice” and his explanation for his severe financial
problems…it’s the “Donald Trump fan dance.”
–Lucent fired the president of its Chinese unit amidst a bribery
investigation. The company has already been accused of bribing
Saudi Arabia’s telecom chief. It’s time for me to check the
headquarters’ lawn for clues as to the future direction of LU.
[For new readers, I live a few blocks away from there.]
–The Eckerd chain of drugstores is being sold by J.C. Penney to
CVS, in case you’re wondering what happened to your
prescription or photos.
–Bank of America is a mess, to put it mildly. The latest news to
hit the outfit involved former broker Ted Sihpol, who has now
been indicted on 40 charges for his role in the mutual fund
scandal. Separately, BofA announced it would lay off 12,500 as
a result of its merger with FleetBoston.
–Putnam Investments is shelling out $110 million to settle SEC
and various state charges for its own mutual fund issues. Former
CEO Larry Lasser’s legacy is in tatters (though he keeps the
money thus far) and we elevate him to the StocksandNews
“Dirtball Hall of Fame.”
–Four former and current employees at Reliant Energy Services
were indicted for their roles in manipulating energy prices during
California’s 2000 energy crisis, an event I have to admit I totally
misinterpreted at the time, one of my bigger mistakes, though
then California Governor Gray Davis made some foolish moves
of his own that merely exacerbated the situation.
–3 former executives of software giant Computer Associates
pled guilty to accounting fraud as part of the seemingly endless
investigation into this crooked outfit. CEO Sanjay Kumar
remains the ultimate target and it’s just a matter of time before he
is nailed.
–Ikea’s founder Ingvar Kamprad is now, according to one report,
the world’s richest man with a net worth of $53 billion, though
Forbes disputes this and puts him at $18.5 billion instead. Either
way, if I see him at a bar, he’s buying.
–The Russell 2000 small cap index eked out an all-time high on
Monday, over 606, before closing the week at 597. A pretty
amazing accomplishment considering the Nasdaq is still about
60% from its March 2000 record.
–The Tokyo Nikkei index hit a 32-month high during the week.
–The people of Inglewood, California (a suburb of Los Angeles)
went to the polls to vote ‘yeah’ or ‘nay’ on a new Wal-Mart
supercenter. 61% said nay. So we all wonder if the backlash is
something the company, and shareholders, have to seriously
worry about.
–Wendy’s is going to start testing alternatives to French fries in
their combo meals. May I suggest Cheddar Cheese Chex Mix.
–Inflation Update: Mark R., performing field research in Florida,
reports that in Jupiter the ‘early bird special’ has risen over the
past year from $12.50 to $13.95. Meanwhile, soybean prices
have doubled in 7 months, primarily due to high exports to China
and poor harvests in Latin America and the U.S.
–Shares in Taser, makers of lethal / ‘non-lethal’ stun guns, have
catapulted from $1.50 last April to $100. Stay away from this
stock…you could get zapped.
–Charles T. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, on
executive compensation. “One of the things you are supposed to
do when you rise to a leadership position is to be an exemplar,
and a man who rises to be an exemplar should not be fanning the
flames of envy. But now people are afraid they will leave
something on the table; there will be one damn perk that
somebody else has that they don’t have. They just want every
last nickel.” [Gretchen Morgenson / New York Times]
–Citigroup is pledging $200 million to fund consumer education
programs across the globe. Here’s my advice.
Buy low / sell high, have a financial advisor to serve as a coach,
do as much of your own homework as you possibly can, become
an expert on one or two sectors of the market, look in the mirror
each morning and say “cash is not trash,” ask yourself once a
quarter “Is my family protected should there be a terror-induced
market crash?”, read “week in review” and ignore the politics if
you must, be kind to the elderly, don’t be afraid to read the New
York Times just because it’s a liberal rag sheet, don’t take as
gospel everything you read in the Wall Street Journal, and pet a
dog.
–My portfolio: I’m down to about 30% equities, the rest cash, as
I sold my position in Japan (EWJ) midweek for a nice 20%+
profit. Don’t get me wrong, I could easily return for another go
of it but I treat country bets differently than individual stock
plays and, as I’ll enumerate later, I’m worried in the short run
about events in Hong Kong and Taiwan having a detrimental
impact on Japan as well. I like to exit first, ask questions later;
which is what I did a year ago when SARS hit, jettisoning an
Asia closed-end offering I owned. It proved to be the wrong
move, but I’ll stick to my philosophy. Meanwhile, despite the
rise in energy prices, my 3 remaining picks in the sector largely
treaded water.
–Joe Mangin passed away this week. He was president of a
municipal bond firm, Barr Brothers, that was founded in 1913.
Perhaps you’ve never heard of it but Barr Brothers is a classic
example of all that can be good on Wall Street; good people and
an emphasis on maintaining the highest ethical standards. I knew
Mr. Mangin for over 30 years and will always remember him as
a real gentleman, but with a wicked sense of humor that I loved.
He also raised a helluva son, one of my great friends.
Foreign Affairs
Europe: I’ve been writing of how explosive the immigration
issue is becoming across the continent and this was a particularly
enlightening week. For starters, though, the Sunday Times
Magazine had a piece reminding us all of the demographic time
bomb in much of Europe, with fertility rates of just 1.1 in Spain
and 1.2 in Italy, for example. [2.1 is the replacement level.]
Muslims are flooding in to fill the void and after 3/11 and the
Madrid attack, it’s no wonder that Europeans are on edge. Of
course as I’ve pointed out countless times, Europe needs
immigration to grow the economy and pay for its welfare state.
1.1 fertility rates spell disaster from a purely financial standpoint
without it. But with Islamic birth rates in many instances well
above 2.5, you can see why Europeans are afraid the entire
culture is at risk.
It was off the radar in the U.S. this week but there was a startling
vote in Slovenia, a country I visited back in 2002. 94% voted not
to restore the rights of citizenship to Bosnians, Croats and Serbs
who had been “erased” following Slovenia’s spectacular defeat
of Slobodan Milosevic in 1991. The ‘non-persons’ thus remain
so. This xenophobia can be felt in varying degrees across much
of Europe and it’s particularly troubling, and embarrassing, for
the European Union as Slovenia is one of those joining the club
on May 1.
[I loved my week here in this beautiful country, but the people
were not the friendliest I’ve ever come across, looking back on
it.]
Another example of the problems faced in Europe these days,
especially on the terror front, is the issue of Muslims in Britain,
as the country knows it’s in the crosshairs of al Qaeda and its
surrogates. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has promised
much tougher entry requirements, citing the fact that fewer than
8% of Britain’s 2,200 imams were trained in the U.K. Scary
stuff. Unfortunately, the new focus on immigration hurts others,
such as the Poles, who can contribute in a big way. [The U.S.
has a similar problem in its policies that now severely limit the
number of legitimate foreign students coming to the States.]
China / Hong Kong: In a deeply troubling move, China’s
National People’s Congress ruled that only Beijing can initiate
reforms on Hong Kong’s political process, thereby dooming the
idea of free elections in 2007 / 2008. So much for “one country,
two systems” and 1997’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, that
allowed for electoral reform. [Reminder: Hong Kong is run by a
‘chief executive,’ a lackey, handpicked by Beijing.] It was
hoped that the people would eventually freely elect the head guy,
knowing that Hong Kong would still operate within the
mainland’s framework, but at least Hong Kong would itself be a
democracy.
The U.S. Consulate General Susan Stevenson said Washington is
urging both Beijing and Hong Kong’s leadership “to do
everything possible to respond to the expressed aspirations of the
Hong Kong people for electoral reform and universal suffrage.”
The Communists, as you can imagine, are none too pleased and
with Vice President Cheney now on a trip to the region, look for
him to receive an earful from his Chinese hosts, something like
“butt out!”
Folks, this is a serious matter and it has the potential to be quite
explosive, beginning with Sunday’s pro-democracy
demonstration in Hong Kong. The Bush administration has
handled it appropriately thus far, but if things turn violent, with a
mainland inspired crackdown, it will be one of President Bush’s
sternest tests. China is of course deathly afraid that the
democracy movement in Hong Kong could spread, and you have
already seen how Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian is using the
issue to warn his people of the consequences of adopting “one
country, two systems” in Taiwan.
Israel: Columnist Uri Dan of the New York Post reports that
Jewish extremists are intent on mounting a full-scale attack on
the mosques on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, an event that would
be a disaster of the first order. And then you have the situation
this week where Israeli security forces clashed with Palestinian
and foreign demonstrators because the West Bank security fence
was being built smack dab in the middle of another Palestinian
farmer’s orchard, thus also separating Palestinians from their
agricultural lands. For outside observers, events like this are not
what Israel should want us to see. At times, it loses me.
Pakistan: Here’s another example of the increasingly barbaric
world of Islamic fundamentalism. From a Reuters story last
weekend, “At least 10 gunmen stormed into a police station (in
Karachi), killing five policemen and wounding one after
demanding that the officers recite Islamic verses…the attackers
shot several officers in the head at close range.”
Lithuania: The parliament impeached the president for granting
citizenship to a Russian businessman in return for financial
support. It is believed to be the first such action ever in Europe
and results from fears of Russian influence in the nation’s affairs.
It’s also embarrassing given Lithuania’s accession to the
European Union on May 1.
Brazil: A majority in the country now believe Brazil is on the
wrong path under President Luiz da Silva, as an ongoing
corruption scandal doesn’t help. But of more import to those of
us outside the nation is the continuing controversy over Brazil’s
nuclear program, as it keeps denying the International Atomic
Energy Agency access to key facilities. Brazil denies it is on the
road to building a little arsenal of its own, insisting it is for
peaceful purposes, but as the Washington Post pointed out, if the
international community, particularly the U.S., doesn’t draw the
line here, then what does it say about our attempt to do the same
in North Korea or Iran?
Canada: According to Defense News, Canadian intelligence is
increasingly worried about remotely piloted aerial vehicles.
Separately, Canada and the U.S. are working on a new security
agreement whereby maritime and land defense would be folded
into NORAD. Aside from drones, Canada is also concerned a
freighter could be exploded and sunk in the St. Lawrence
Seaway, shutting down a large portion of the economy.
Rwanda, Part II
Since I started “week in review,” I have written about 3,500
pages of commentary. No doubt, sometimes it has an edge.
Alas, over the years there are about 20 passages, or, perhaps more
accurately, about 30 words I wish I had never put down on paper.
Last week I went through my normal routine and never gave one
particular line a second thought; that is until about two hours
after posting when I noticed some of my e-mail. I was careless
with an opinion I expressed on Bill Clinton and I’m sorry I
offended some of you. It was uncalled for and I know it. But I
couldn’t erase it and still maintain the integrity of the site so I
lived with my mistake all week.
I can not deny, obviously, that I harbor particular feelings about
Clinton due to my belief he compromised national security. Last
week, though, I let a powerful “Frontline” documentary on
Rwanda overwhelm my normal sense of propriety and the line
was crossed.
But regarding the main topic, as you noticed the 10th anniversary
of the start of the genocide in Rwanda captured a few headlines
since my last column. The episode speaks to our leaders’
resolve, or lack thereof, in confronting injustice. And so I
present some final opinions, gathered in the past week. I would
argue any lessons apply to aspects of our war in Iraq and the
global war on terror, as well as still festering problems in other
parts of Africa such as Sudan.
Richard Holbrooke, U.S. ambassador to Germany in 1994:
“What happened in Rwanda – as in Auschwitz, Babi Yar, Tuol
Sleng and Srebrenica – cannot be fully explained in words. It is
unfathomable on so many levels, a horror we want to convince
ourselves is beyond human capacity, despite all the evidence of
history….
“The catchphrase for the Rwandas and Bosnias of the world, as
with the Holocaust itself, is always the same: Never again…Each
time we are told of ‘ancient tribal’ or ‘ethnic’ hatreds; each time
there is international ‘compassion fatigue’; each time there is a
demand for an ‘exit strategy’ rather than a ‘success strategy.’
“But there is one underlying constant: the failure of the world to
recognize and confront the evil that is occurring, and to deny it
the chance to unleash its full fury. This is both a failure of will
and a failure of courage – a deliberate shrinking from a reality
too horrifying to contemplate, but one that can only be changed
if it is, in fact, deeply contemplated, faced directly and stared
down….
“Rwanda’s genocide, or at least much of it, might have been
avoided had the world acted. But as the slaughter started, and
after the gruesome killing of 10 U.N. peacekeepers from
Belgium, the U.N. Security Council instructed its undermanned
and overwhelmed peacekeeping forces in Rwanda to withdraw,
ignoring the U.N. commander’s request for reinforcements….
“At least 800,000 people were slaughtered in about three
months…
“Had the Security Council agreed to the U.N. commander’s
request and sent more troops, I believe, as do most other
observers, that at least half the deaths, if not more, could have
been prevented. Instead, when the United Nations withdrew, the
genocide exploded.
“But – I must stress this point – the U.N. withdrawal was not
determined by something abstract called ‘the United Nations.’…
It was not ‘the U.N.’ – that tall building on New York’s East
River, overflowing with diplomatic talk – that decided to pull
out. No. It was the leading nations of the world, speaking
through their ambassadors in New York….
“Details matter here. On April 15, 1994, in the Security Council,
the United States demanded a full U.N. withdrawal. We even
opposed helping other nations who might have intervened, and
deleted the use of the word ‘genocide’ from the U.N.’s
statements….Had we shown a willingness to airlift even a
relatively small contingent of American troops into Rwanda,
others would have definitely followed…
“Why did Washington do nothing? The answer lies primarily in
events outside Rwanda. The United States was reeling from the
‘Black Hawk Down’ disaster in Somalia…” [Washington Post]
From Kevin Whitelaw of U.S. News & World Report:
“On April 23, 1994, just two weeks after the violence began, the
CIA was characterizing it as ‘genocide’ in its top-secret National
Intelligence Daily, a report sent to several hundred policymakers.
Yet in public, the Clinton administration studiously avoided
labeling the crisis as genocide, fearful that it would spark cries to
intervene – something the new documents make clear it never
seriously considered. The State Department’s intelligence
bureau warned on April 26 that ‘the butchery shows no sign of
ending,’ but the White House declined to consider bolstering the
small United Nations peacekeeping force inside Kigali (the
capital). Mindful of the American casualties in the 1993 Somalia
mission, officials were worried that a botched peacekeeping
effort could prompt Congress to block future support for U.N.
peacekeeping. A declassified White House discussion paper
from late April laid out a set of relatively innocuous responses,
like sending diplomatic demarches and encouraging negotiations.
Ironically, the paper was drafted by Richard Clarke, then
working on peacekeeping issues, now better known for his
counterterrorism role.”
Richard Clarke is no hero in my book, friends. But this week
President Clinton weighed in himself in an op-ed for the
Washington Post. Once again, he plays us for chumps, papering
over history with a cavalier explanation of his leadership at the
time.
“Over the past decade, scholars and advocates have rightly
reflected on the reasons that the international community and
nations in Africa must share the responsibility for this tragedy.
As I said during my trip to Rwanda in 1998, ‘We did not act
quickly enough after the killing began. We should not have
allowed the refugee camps to become safe haven for the killers.
We did not immediately call these crimes by their rightful name:
genocide.’
“The death and destruction that began in April 1994 still haunts
Rwandans and all of us who failed to respond. It is important to
remember the horrors of that period with clarity and honesty,
both to benefit from the lessons learned and to honor the memory
of those who perished. But it is also important for the world to
focus on the progress that has been and can be made in what is
still viewed by too many as a small and remote country in central
Africa.”
President Clinton then spent the rest of his piece addressing
the AIDS crisis. The above is classic for us Clinton watchers.
Notice the excessive use of the word ‘we.’ Change it to ‘I’ next
time, sir.
Finally, I turn to General Romeo Dallaire, a Canadian and the
commander of the U.N. forces in Rwanda. Following is an
excerpt from his interview with “Frontline.” [pbs.org]
Frontline: How do you feel now when you hear U.S. senior
officials – Clinton, Albright, others – talk about Rwanda? Of
course Clinton went and apologized –
Dallaire: He didn’t apologize.
Frontline: Well, it was couched as an apology.
Dallaire: No, no. He went to reinforce the blackmail on the
Rwandans…When he was there in ’98, he said, ‘Oh, I didn’t
know. We didn’t realize.’ I’ve got all those quotes and stuff,
which are outright lies…the Americans knew what was going on
inside there, and (it’s awful) to go and excuse yourself – the
Belgians did the same thing – in front of these people. The
Americans scuttled any initiative to bring about a force to be able
to save hundreds of thousands. How can they look at this guy
and accept an apology?”
What is the tie to today? That should be apparent, but I have to
repeat a quote from Duke Professor Peter Feavers that I included
in this space on 3/27/04 in relation to the Clinton
administration’s handling of Osama bin Laden.
“Determined commanders in chief have the mindset and the
resolve to act in spite of the political climate and military
resistance…
“Although aware of the danger posed by Osama bin Laden, (the
Clinton administration) was somehow unable to create and carry
out an effective strategy to deal with him. But Clinton…failed to
educate the American people adequately about the nature of the
danger, and what it might take to fight it.”
Wrapping up, I didn’t realize until doing more research this past
week that General Dallaire was such a hero in certain circles in
Canada. He’s now become a hero of mine too.
Random Musings
–I will not be commenting extensively on John Kerry’s
economic plan during the campaign for the simple reason that
unless he were to blow away Bush in November, say 54-45
(we’ll give Nader a percentage point), Congress will remain in
Republican hands, certainly at least one branch of it, and thus
any plans put forward today have zero chance of passage.
–So we have this porked up highway bill that has now gone
through both houses of Congress; $275 billion worth in the
House, $318 billion in the Senate version. The White House said
the president will veto any final markup over $256 billion. Of
course Bush hasn’t vetoed anything as yet, but I’ll go with
Robert Novak’s early call (WIR 2/21/04) that Bush will do so in
this instance, knowing that it will be overridden anyway, just so
the White House can paint him as being tough on the soaring
deficit. I ain’t fallin’ for it.
–I can’t be the only one watching the recent action in Iraq with
the thought that the U.S. military is going through its budget far
quicker than planned. For starters, we’re using much more in the
way of munitions and these don’t come cheap. We also have
more on the ground there than originally planned for at this
stage. We’re talking big numbers added to the deficit. More
importantly, though, we’re talking the Defense Department is
even more ill-prepared for a surprise attack by North Korea than
we’ve ever been.
–I have written extensively on the issue of dangerous levels of
mercury in some of our fish, but this week the Times piled on
and in convincing fashion. One piece laid out all the evidence
that the EPA is playing games with the regulations for coal-fired
power plants, minimizing highly damaging scientific data on the
effects of mercury as the Bush administration guts past clean air
acts.
But the topper was an article for the Sunday Times Magazine,
authored by Bruce Barcott.
“The Clean Air Act, adopted by Congress and signed by
President Nixon in 1970, required industrial polluters to clean up
their operations. The law forced power plants and large factories
to minimize their emissions of harmful pollutants like sulfur
dioxide and lead, and it established national air-quality standards
to be met by 1975. Congress, acknowledged, however, that
forcing polluters to retrofit every existing plant immediately
would be tremendously costly, potentially crippling entire
industries. So in a concession to industry, the lawmakers agreed
to apply the tough standards only to newly built facilities.
“Seven years passed, and the national air-quality standards were
unmet. Instead of building new, cleaner plants, many companies
simply patched and upgraded their old, dirty plants. So Congress
updated the act in 1977, introducing a regulation called new-
source review to bring older plants into compliance. Under
N.S.R., a company could operate an old factory as long as it
wasn’t substantially modified. Eventually, it was assumed, the
company would have to update its equipment, at which point
new-source rules required the company to install the best
available pollution-control technology. It was a way to let
companies phase in the switch to cleaner factories over a number
of years instead of all at once.”
Well, Congress thought utilities would eventually replace their
old, garbage belching plants with newer ones. A few proceeded
to do so, building those that used natural gas. But most others
continued to ignore the mandates and just did patchwork repairs
instead of fitting the plants with new scrubbers required under
N.S.R. That’s where we are today. The electric industry cries
foul and claims ignorance, while the EPA turns the other way.
–Princeton University is worried about grade inflation.
Currently, an average of 46% of the grades are A’s and the
school wants to see this reduced to 35%. Actually, this was
never an issue for yours truly when I was in school. I never
seemed to be in the running for one, if you know what I mean.
–Note to my international readers, yes, I’m doing what I can to
keep up with the David Beckham affair. [Beckham, my U.S.
readers, is an international soccer icon who is married to Posh
Spice of Spice Girls fame.] Those tapes are rather steamy, I have
to agree.
–But to end on a more civilized note, the Journal’s Daniel
Henninger had a column on Friday in which he recommended
everyone view the 1959 film classic “Ben-Hur” as an alternative
to “The Passion of the Christ.” I got a kick out of this because I
did the very same thing myself over a month ago. Just do it…
you’ll thank us for the recommendation.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces. You’re
constantly in our thoughts and prayers.
God bless America.
—
I received word late Friday that the island of Yap in Micronesia
was devastated by a typhoon yesterday. Some of you know this
is where I have my church and having been there a few times, I
know the lives on the island have been changed forever. No
word on any casualties as yet, or the fate of the church.
—
Gold closed at $420
Oil, $37.14
Returns for the week 4/5-4/9
Dow Jones -0.3% [10442]
S&P 500 -0.2% [1139]
S&P MidCap -0.2%
Russell 2000 -0.9%
Nasdaq -0.2% [2052]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-4/9/04
Dow Jones -0.1%
S&P 500 +2.5%
S&P MidCap +6.0%
Russell 2000 +7.4%
Nasdaq +2.5%
Bulls 48.5
Bears 22.8 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a Blessed Easter.
Brian Trumbore
