[Posted 12:00 AM ET…from Singapore]
Democracy? I think not…
It was more than a bit ironic that yours truly was in Hong Kong
this particular week, after all I’ve written over the years on the
plight of the democracy movement here. History was made on
Monday just a few blocks from my hotel, as it turned out, and
Tuesday’s front page of the South China Morning Post screamed
in bold headlines:
Beijing: last word on elections in 2007 and 2008
‘HK has enjoyed unprecedented democratic rights…
Universal suffrage shall not be applied.’
You see, back in 1997 when Britain handed over Hong Kong to
the communists, an agreement, the Basic Law, was part of the
deal. It provided for the popular election of the chief executive
who runs Hong Kong by 2007, with the full legislature to be
directly elected in 2008. At least that’s what the people have
been planning for, despite loopholes in the act for Beijing to
slither through.
And so a few weeks ago, the communists, concerned over the
rhetoric adopted by HK’s democracy movement, said they alone
had the power to initiate political reform. This didn’t totally
slam the door shut, but it was deeply troubling.
Well, China’s leaders wasted no time in making it clear where
they really stood. So much for “one country, two systems,” in
other words, as one of Beijing’s top officials, Qiao Xiaoyang,
gathered about 900 of HK’s business and political elite into an
exhibition hall and lectured them like schoolchildren. Any rush
to democracy would damage national sovereignty, he said,
adding, it was vital to “protect the business interests” from being
eroded by the right to vote which could cause Hong Kong to
“lose competitiveness.”
What a bunch of bull. Qiao went on to say HK was not mature
enough to vote, a standard line of thought applied to the smallest
village on the mainland these days. What has gone largely
unnoticed is the fact that political reforms initiated by Deng
Xiaoping – who more and more is looking like a great figure of
history, in all sincerity – are being eroded, not promoted; Hong
Kong being but one well-publicized example. Obviously,
China’s Communist Party cannot let a spark of democracy turn
into a wildfire across the land.
But the issue now becomes, how will Hong Kong respond? As I
noted way back when I made my first trip here in 2001, the
business community is complacent. Let’s face it; they have it
good so why rock the boat? And opinion polls now show a
decline in those favoring direct elections of both the chief
executive and legislature from 75-80% to 62-67% just since last
December. This is what happens under communism. It grinds
away at your psyche and for each Lech Walesa that perseveres;
there are countless others like Czechoslovakia’s Alexander
Dubcek (1968) who finally give up.
We are going to learn everything about Hong Kong’s democracy
movement and its brave leaders, such as Emily Lau and Martin
Lee, on July 1, as plans are in the works for a demonstration
rivaling last year’s protest of 500,000 on the same date. Will the
people show up? I wouldn’t be so sure they will, at least not in
such sizable numbers. The day after Monday’s decision, I
walked across the street from my hotel to the Legislative Council
building to see what kind of protests were taking place. I did the
same the following day. Reporters outnumbered demonstrators.
Finally, it wouldn’t be fair to write as I just have on this topic
without mentioning Beijing’s reply to official condemnation in
Washington and London. Foreign Minister Li Zhaoking, in
telling the U.S. and Britain to mind its own business, uttered a
truth. There is something of a double standard at work in the
West’s criticism. After all, it wasn’t as if the British gave
Hongkongers the right to freely elect leaders when they were in
charge.
Oh, it’s a complex world we live in…that is if we choose to care.
—
Taiwan: Related as always to the above is the situation here.
Assuming there are no surprises in a recount of the disputed
presidential vote slated for May 10, the inauguration of President
Chen Shui-bian for a second term takes place on May 20. The
Bush administration continues to warn him not to bring up the
subject of independence as it would most certainly lead to
Chinese military action. In other words, the White House is
saying, we have our own election coming up this fall, guys, and
with our hands full in Iraq and elsewhere, the last thing we need
is war on the Taiwan Strait.
Well, you know where I stand. If the United States did not come
to the defense of Taiwan, then the game is over. Japan, South
Korea et al would never be able to rely on the U.S. for support in
their own future struggles with China, they’d go nuclear, quickly,
and presto…we’d have a world war on our hands in short order.
At the same time others believe that if the U.S. defended Taiwan,
then a U.S.-China conflict could go be of the ballistic missile
variety as well. Maybe. No one ever said America’s children,
and those yet to be born, were going to have it easy. All I’d add
is look how Beijing has handled Hong Kong and you can
understand why many Taiwanese recognize that China’s
longstanding offer of “one country, two systems” is nothing but a
trap.
North Korea: And then there’s Kim Jong-il, the nut case with the
Marty Allen hairdo. [Sorry, think comedian on “The Ed Sullivan
Show”…to date myself.] Just last week I wrote that North Korea
had “3 to 10” nuclear bombs. This Wednesday the Washington
Post reported that U.S. intelligence is about to formally up its
estimate from “2 to 8.” Now how is it that your editor basically
nailed this one before the press reported on it? I read a lot, from
every side imaginable, and then I apply whatever common sense
I have left in this admittedly cluttered brain of mine.
Two other notes. First, following the train disaster, South Korea
extended an offer for significant aid but Kim insisted it go by
boat because he didn’t want his people seeing South Korean
trains and trucks. Second, as another follow-up to my discussion
last week on the impact of a collapse in Pyongyang on China, the
Asia Wall Street Journal had an editorial titled “What if
Pyongyang Collapses?” The piece, though, was all about the
burden South Korea would face; about $600 billion worth
according to some estimates. Well that’s not dealing in the
whole truth, I mused. Not one word on China in the Journal’s
scenario. I certainly understand the South’s justifiable concerns,
but open your mind up to the other side of the equation.
Wall Street
I saw where the New York Times’ Thomas Friedman
commented in a column the other day that he was in Tokyo and
struggling mightily with jet lag. I can certainly relate. I’ve been
in the Far East six days now and my body clock is still adjusting.
One result, though, is I’m watching the last hour or so of the
market action in the U.S. on CNBC because I’m wide awake at
3:00 AM and there is a 12-hour time difference in both Hong
Kong and Singapore. That said, I can’t say I’ve been following
Wall Street as closely as I do when I’m back home. After all,
that would make traveling quite a waste of money now, wouldn’t
it?
But between the Internet and some excellent papers in these
parts, you pick up a ton, such as the fact that Morgan Stanley’s
chief economist Stephen Roach was in Hong Kong on Tuesday.
Mr. Roach discussed today’s unbalanced global economy and its
reliance on two forces of growth – the Chinese producer on the
supply side of the equation and the U.S. consumer on the demand
side. “Central banks – both in the U.S. and Asia – have created a
monster that they may no longer be able to control,” he opined.
In other words, this era of easy money has a flipside.
And then one night I awoke with a start around midnight. I was
missing something, I thought, and flipping on CNBC who should
I catch but strategist Jim Grant discussing a topic near and dear
to my heart; the fact that a 1% federal funds rate is essentially a
tax on savings that forces those who can probably least afford it
into taking risks in stocks and real estate at perhaps a very
inopportune time. I’ll say it again, but those of you on fixed
income have my sympathy. It is a crime what Fed Chairman
Alan Greenspan is doing. As Grant said, 1% funds rates should
be reserved for emergencies and this is far from one.
There was more good news on the economic front this week as
new home sales surged anew and a reading of consumer
confidence was bullish. And then we had the release of first
quarter GDP and it was up a very solid 4.2%, maybe not as much
as some whisper #s had it but something the Bush administration
can justifiably crow about, while Democrats moan that some
once unemployed are finding jobs.
So why, then, did equities struggle this week? Interest rates. For
within the GDP data were a few kernels that augured rough
sledding ahead on the inflation front and with a funds rate of 1%
and inflation, depending on your indicator of choice, somewhere
between 2 and 3%, something has to give…and it’s the former.
For crying out loud, Mr. Greenspan, hike rates 50 basis points on
May 4…and then sit back until year end if you must, but at least
act like you understand the problem before you take your last
bubble bath.
Finally, we go back to Stephen Roach and China. With a week-
long holiday in the country next week, the government saw it as
a good time to institute a moratorium on some forms of bank
lending, particularly to areas of the economy such as steel. In a
classic example of the problem faced by those setting national
policy as the bubble here grows and grows, officials put the
brakes on a $1.3 billion steel project the scope of which local
authorities tried to hide by breaking it up into 22 smaller parts,
thus avoiding various disclosure requirements. China is way
over investing in some areas, while it faces huge shortfalls in
others such as in generating electricity. Anyway, the brakes are
being applied and the world caught a cold because of it,
particularly once red-hot companies specializing in commodities.
But can the Chinese engineer a soft landing? Roach told his
Hong Kong audience, yes. I say, no, though I admit I’m placing
myself once again in the box I’ve discussed the past few weeks.
Inflation needs to be addressed, but the global economy is
headed for a fall…to be followed by deflation. No wonder I
can’t sleep.
Street Bytes
–Stocks got crushed, particularly small caps and anything tech-
related. The Dow Jones dropped 2.4% to 10225, while Nasdaq
lost a whopping 6.3% to 1920.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.15% 2-yr. 2.31% 10-yr. 4.51% 30-yr. 5.29%
Friday’s edition of The Straits Times here in Singapore reported
on an appearance by the Conference Board’s chief economist,
Gail Fosler, who told her audience that a 6%! fed funds rate by
late 2005 / early 2006 is “quite real.” Oh well, horrible for real
estate and corporate earnings expectations, but finally a break for
us holders of cash.
–China: As I say, you have to separate the political from the
economic these days. Slamming the door on democracy in Hong
Kong is one thing, the China bubble quite another. So here are
some tidbits I gleaned this week. Aside from the aforementioned
moratorium on lending, we will probably look back at the IPO of
China Life last December and call that the market top. Shares
peaked at $35.50 on January 2 and are now trading below $22 as
market regulators in both the U.S. and Hong Kong look into the
lack of disclosure on the company’s part as it was going public,
thus hitting on an issue I’ve discussed countless times before in
this space, that being transparency. Again, it’s bad enough in
established markets such as in the U.S. and Europe. Why then
would you mess around with a new story, China, until more time
has transpired? But I also wrote that if one stock was going to be
clean you’d expect it to be China Life. Now, of course, I
wouldn’t touch anything from here and China’s market is off at
least 15% since the peak.
Meanwhile, there is a trade fair going on in Guangzhou and a
check of exhibitors found 60% to be promoting pirated goods.
And as for rising inflation, producer prices in China were up
3.9% in March, a worrisome development; while on the beer
front, prices for barley, rice, water and electricity are up 7%, but
due to competition, it was reported in one of the local papers that
the major breweries can’t raise their own prices yet. [Yes, at the
end of the day, it’s all about the beer.]
Finally, you have the real estate bubble on the mainland. In the
case of one luxury apartment complex I was reading of outside
Shanghai, 60% of 125 units were bought by speculators just
looking to turn a quick profit. But here’s the flipside. Due to the
fact China has serious problems keeping up with the demand for
electricity, with iron and steel plants running full tilt, some
residential areas are going without power for up to 3 days in 7.
Oh yeah, I’d love that.
[I’ll be in Shanghai later this week and one goal is to get out and
see some of these places for myself.]
–Assuming China’s bubble doesn’t burst until 2005, the Asia
Development Bank expects growth in Asia, ex-Japan, to grow
6.8% in ’04.
–There were record inflows into U.S. equity mutual funds in the
first quarter, contrarians take note.
–Ideas on the technology sector: With tech valuations in the
neighborhood of 30 on projected earnings for the next 12 months
(at least before this week’s carnage), stocks in this group are
nowhere near the valuations of the bubble days, but they also
aren’t cheap. Merrill Lynch strategist Richard Bernstein
observed, “It’s astounding…there is this perception that there’s
something unique about tech,” while venture capitalist Roger
McNamee noted that there is a “transition from technology being
sold as a product to tech being sold as a service.” [New York
Times]
–Robert Samuelson / Washington Post: “The corporate tax
(35%) is a monstrosity. It promotes widespread tax avoidance
(and) raises a diminishing share of governmental revenue (today
under 8%)…It’s an exercise in cynicism and waste that the next
president ought to overhaul.” Agreed.
–Now here’s a disgrace. After re-emerging from bankruptcy,
shares in the new Global Crossing were re-listed but are now
down over 70% due to the fact it was suddenly discovered
financial results needed to be restated all over again.
–And then there is the saga of Canadian telecommunication
equipment giant Nortel. Just last February executives had us
believing a spectacular comeback was in the offing and investors
took the shares up to $U.S. 8.50 on February 18. This week they
closed below $4.00 as the company fired its CEO, CFO and
comptroller, while announcing it would delay release of its first
quarter results due to more accounting irregularities.
–Related to the above, shares in competitor Lucent didn’t fare
too well, either, but then you learned last week that there was a
clue to this future performance in the fact they are employing
inferior mulch on their headquarters’ property. I call this but
another example of the StocksandNews advantage.
–Everyone is atwitter over the Google IPO, especially
investment bankers CSFB and Morgan Stanley, the lead
underwriters and beneficiaries of the lion’s share of at least $100
million generated in fees. According to its registration filing,
Google is twice as profitable as Yahoo and should end up with a
market valuation far in excess of the likes of Nike, Federal
Express, Sears and Marriott International.
Google executives, though, appear intent on avoiding the
problems of other hot IPOs by widening the initial shareholder
base, and for good reason. According to research done by
University of Florida Professor Jay Ritter, of the ten IPOs with
the biggest first day pops since 1975, not one ever returned to the
price it reached that same day. [USA Today]
–The 4/26 edition of Barron’s had a piece on the real estate
frenzy in Hawaii, which has finally caught up to the mainland.
Hawaii has been the “last game in town” before, not a good sign
if you’re a contrarian. In a separate piece, noted money manager
Raj Gupta said housing in the U.S. “could be as much as 20%
overvalued.” If this is true, folks, fasten your seat belts. It’s
going to be a bumpy ride.
–Comcast dropped its bid for Disney. I was probably having a
beer, admiring the scene on Victoria Harbour, when this news hit
and I couldn’t have given a damn. I still don’t. But a Disney
theme park is slated to open in Hong Kong soon and the Disney
store at the airport was mobbed, a possible gauge of future
acceptance.
–The World Trade Organization issued a truly historic ruling in
a case that Brazil filed against the U.S. and the latter’s cotton
subsidies. On this and related issues, I side with the little guys,
around the world, and against U.S., European and Japanese
governments that ply their farmers with often undeserving
subsidies while continuing to beat down those people existing on
$1 a day. It’s a matter of simple fairness and the developed
nations, whether or not they want to publicly say as much, know
that subsidies across the board must be slashed to allow the
poorer nations to compete. We’ve all been a bunch of hypocrites
in this regard. [I’m assuming those earning $1 a day are not part
of my target audience.]
And remember how I told you what a disgrace it was for the
Bush administration to stick it to Australia’s sugar industry as
part of an overall free-trade pact between our two countries?
This week, the government of Prime Minister John Howard had
to give into the sugar interests and offer large subsidies of its
own, in essence to buy votes for the coming election.
–Update: The French-German (mostly French) drug giant
Aventis accepted a sweetened bid from Paris-based Sanofi, thus
protecting French interests (and breaking E.U. rules), though this
alliance will struggle big time.
–Inflation Update: Mark R. reports propane for his outdoor grill
is up 42% over last year, while you’ve all undoubtedly noticed
milk prices are at an all-time high. As for the continuing spike in
the cost of gasoline at the pump, to a great extent this is what
happens when you don’t build refineries. When it comes to
making tough decisions, we’re often incapable of doing so.
–My portfolio: It’s hard to keep up while away, beyond just
looking at share prices, and I’m not doing anything with my
holdings so I remain about 20% equities / 80% cash; the latter
now in Singapore dollars, soon to be converted to Chinese yuan
before the trip back to the States. [Don’t worry…it’s not taking
up much space. I’m hiding it in my shaving kit.]
Actually, to be honest, thanks to depreciation in my 10 equity
positions, I’m probably more like 18 / 82. And just a word on
my trading of the past few months. Except for the largest energy
position that I made a triple on, everything I sold is down a fair
amount from where I got out. In the case of exiting India and
Japan, my timing couldn’t have been better. [India is suffering
from a perception that the ruling party isn’t doing that well in its
interminable elections.] But with the 10 stocks I’m left with, 9
of which are all between 1-2% of my portfolio, I’m getting
whacked around along with the rest of the market. 5 of them are
highly speculative and it’s been a rough stretch for these sorts of
issues. Of the others, one is the Singapore Fund, also down from
where I announced I had purchased it.
[To new readers: For obvious reasons I don’t name individual
stocks that I own, but I make exceptions in terms of country
funds or similar exchange-traded offerings.]
Back to Foreign Affairs
Iraq: Glancing at CNN International this week, one would have
thought the battle for Fallujah was another Stalingrad with the
way it was covered on the network. No doubt, though, that the
outcome here, as well as in Najaf, is critical to the overall
success of post-June 30 Iraq. Early in the week I was heartened
that my military was taking some aggressive steps to kill the
bastards holed up in Fallujah, but now I see we’ve backed off,
turning the whole mess over to a former associate of Saddam’s,
and like many of you I’m disheartened that my government has
done such a terrible job in managing post-war Iraq. It’s also
distressing knowing that many of our brave men and women are
not receiving, despite the blather from our president, the materiel
they need to protect themselves. From all I’ve read, Donald
Rumsfeld’s Pentagon is only now realizing it never should have
removed the battle tanks from the theater, to cite but one
example. Man, I’m sick of the secretary. Someone show him
the door today…election or no election.
Meanwhile, thanks in no small part to Rumsfeld’s gross
incompetence, President Bush’s approval numbers, especially as
they pertain to Iraq, continue to slide. He is losing the support of
the people, tick by tick, week by week. It’s discouraging for
those of us still behind him. It’s also dangerous.
Israel: I haven’t seen if anyone wrote of this in the States the
past week but a few days after the meeting in Washington
between Prime Minister Sharon and President Bush, National
Security Advisor Condi Rice was on one of the Sunday talk
shows and when asked whether the two leaders discussed
targeted assassinations (Hamas leader Rantisi having been
assassinated two days after the visit, you’ll recall), Rice replied
“(Bush and Sharon) don’t discuss such internal matters.” Liar, I
thought. And there was no reason to be this dishonest. Just spin
it, Condi baby. I failed to mention this observation last week but
I was reminded of it when Sharon told an interviewer in Israel
that he had raised the issue of targeting Yassir Arafat with Bush
on April 14. Well, the White House got all huffy once this hit
the wires, with Bush warning Sharon not to do so; the point
being they obviously discuss this stuff all the time. If they
didn’t, I’d be worried. But again, Condi Rice issued a bald-faced
lie. Game’s over, Ms. Rice. You’ve lost me. [Actually, I’m
trying to think of just one key official in this administration that I
still support, aside from the inarticulate one.]
Meanwhile, Israel continues to plow $millions into settlements
on the West Bank, even as Sharon claims he will dismantle
some. The whole thing is a freakin’ farce and on Sunday we see
how the Likud Party comes down on it all. [I also admit I may
have drastically overstated the # of settlements to be torn down
by Israel. Many reports since the initial ones following Sharon’s
proposal now say as few as 700 of over 200,000 would be forced
to leave.]
So you know what? For the first time ever I feel compelled to
quote the chief negotiator for the PLO, Saeb Erakat, as he opined
on this topic in the Washington Post.
“It is mindboggling that an American president, after citing the
rule of law, would use the power of his position, not to enforce
international law against illegal Israeli settlements in occupied
Palestinian territory but instead to legitimize them as currently
existing Israeli population centers, thereby giving Israelis an
incentive to build even more.”
Finally, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, Martin Indyk, posited
a future where the United States will assume responsibility for
Gaza when Israel leaves. I’m sure a majority of the American
people will be thrilled should this prove to be the case…not.
European Union: It’s May Day!….time to expand the E.U. from
15 to 25 members. Yes, this is truly historic, and a good thing,
but for my fellow Americans who couldn’t seem to care less, I
must nonetheless remind you of the new nations entering the
fold.
Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia,
Poland, Hungary, Cyprus and Malta.
Regarding Cyprus, as expected the Greek Cypriots rejected the
U.N.-sponsored reunification plan last Saturday, so they are the
only ones admitted to the E.U. The Turkist Cypriots, who
overwhelmingly approved it, are denied admittance, so the Turks
get screwed yet again. However, many E.U. nations, along with
the U.S., have promised to end the economic isolation of the
Turks on the island.
Singapore: [As I write this I’ve been here only about 24 hours
and will save my impressions for next week, except to say I flew
on Singapore Airlines for the first time Thursday and, boy, the
Singapore Air girls are everything you read about…and then
some. Drop dead gorgeous; and the service was superb. I can’t
wait until my SIA flight to Shanghai on Wednesday!]
Singapore’s Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong announced he will
step down sometime this year in favor of the son of founding
father Lee Kuan Yew, who ran the country from 1965-1990
following Singapore’s separation from Malaysia. As one
editorial in Hong Kong put it this week, Lee did a spectacular job
taking Singapore from an “impoverished backwater into an ultra-
modern manufacturing and financial hub.” Goh, who took over
for Lee in ’90, is being criticized for his move to name Lee’s son
(currently central bank chief) because it appears to establish a
dynastic succession, to which I’d say, do whatever works.
Singapore is in the eye of the storm when it comes to the war on
terror, after all. If you haven’t done so in a while, take a look at
a map to remind yourself of its position smack dab in the middle
of Malaysia and Indonesia. And with nearby Thailand’s own
serious flare-up this past week, with over 100 rebels killed in a
well-coordinated, if pitifully armed, attack against Thai police
interests, Singapore (and Malaysia) need to be even more on
guard.
It was Singapore, as I’ve noted in the past, that thwarted a
spectacular plot post-9/11 on British and U.S. interests here that
would have probably sent the global economy spiraling into
depression had it succeeded so soon after the attacks on New
York and Washington.
Finally, Singapore and Israel appear to be the only two nations to
have begun a concerted effort to outfit their commercial airliners
with anti-missile defense mechanisms. I guarantee a depression
if terrorists strike two aircraft, simultaneously, sometime in the
next year. One hit we can survive, though financially many
individual airlines won’t. Two would be catastrophic.
Jordan: Did the government really just foil a devastating
chemical attack? One day it appears to have done so, the next
I’m not so sure. Regardless, Jordan has been a stalwart in the
war on terror and count me as a fan of King Abdullah. I also
understand when he has to rattle the Bush administration’s cage
from time to time when it comes to the White House’s cozy
relationship with Sharon.
Random Musings
–I see Richard Clarke had an op-ed in the New York Times the
other day. He talked of the war on terrorism but once again
failed to mention his role in the deaths of 800,000 in Rwanda
…and yours truly still seems to be the only one who has picked
up on this point, amazingly.
–As an example of an issue faced by many developed nations
these days, specifically low birthrate, if the Czech Republic
maintained its current restrictions on immigration, by 2050 the
population would have declined from 10.2 to 8.1 million.
–So I saw where some Chinese “diplomats” were caught spying
at Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratories, a residual event left over
from the Clinton era, I surmised.
–Speaking of the former president, Clinton’s memoirs are slated
to be released June 1, meaning thereafter it will be all Clinton, all
the time. I may have to flee the country again.
–What a bizarre Republican primary in Pennsylvania, with
liberal Arlen Specter nosing out conservative Pat Toomey. It’s a
shame Toomey lost and the Bush administration looks like a
bunch of idiots (as does Sen. Santorum) for backing Specter so
vigorously, but then that’s why incumbents do so well, isn’t it?
I’ll scratch your back, you scratch mine. It’s also why our
current system for electing members of Congress sucks, leading
to uncreative thinking at a time in world history that demands
much more of us as global leader.
–The Bush administration has declared that hatchery-raised
salmon are now to be counted as “wild salmon.” This has wild
salmon splashing madly (let alone their environmentalist
supporters). It’s kind of like the fight back in the 1950s and 60s
created by forced school busing. Let’s face it. As has been
proved ever since, some folks just want to be with their own,
salmon included.
–Boy, I totally missed the fact I’d be over in this region during
the week-long May Day holidays in China. A travel nightmare
for some.
–And related to the above, it’s all about SARS in these parts.
Thermal-imaging cameras monitor the passengers’ temperatures
and in Hong Kong, this roving evil eye scans your body as you
wait in line at customs. “It’s only beer,” I want to say to the
cyclops.
–Authorities in Shanghai, as part of the Big Brother Communist
approach (BBC), are installing tracking software on 110,000
computers used in some 1,300 Internet cafes. I may have to go
into one…then again, that’s probably not a good idea. We’re up
to 1,900 readers in China, by the way. [Overseas visitors to
StocksandNews remain at around 35% of the total.]
–It’s amazing how friendly folks are in the Far East compared to
most European countries. You’d think the latter would catch on
after a while. This is my 3rd trip to Asia in the last 4 years, for
example, dropping major bucks along the way. I do hope
sometime in 2005 to visit some of the Baltic nations, however. I
bet they’d appreciate my beer money!
–A popular Hong Kong radio talkshow host, Albert Cheng, is
quitting because he can’t take the pressure anymore. He feels
he’s being “suffocated” in the current political climate. It’s
tough receiving death threats, like he evidently has, just from
speaking out for more democracy.
–China is looking for an official mascot for the 2008 Olympic
Games in Beijing. Different districts have submitted candidates,
such as the panda, the South China tiger, the Tibetan antelope
and the Yangtze River dolphin. Now many of you are probably
thinking, it’s got to be the panda, but the cuddly ones are also
habitually lazy so authorities may find it to be an unsuitable
symbol. So may I suggest the noble, if mangy, yak of the
western steppes. Yak are highly industrious, and when they slow
down with old age they are also tasty and nutritious…the perfect
combination. Then again, children attending the Olympics may
have a problem with seeing yak being sold as a plush toy at one
booth while it’s being skewered at the next.
–I went to see an exhibition at the Hong Kong Museum of Art
on the Vietnam War, as seen through the eyes of the Vietnamese
in paintings and drawings. I have to be honest, the art wasn’t
that impressive but I loved observing the schoolchildren of Hong
Kong who were there. Crisp uniforms, extremely well-behaved,
hanging on their teachers’ every word. How refreshing when
compared to the misbehavior you see among America’s youth.
–I also noticed in Hong Kong that the English-speaking tourists
(including many Brits and Australians) dressed like slobs in the
finer hotels I walked into for a few lunches (and I was staying in
one). Show a little respect, for crying out loud.
–Notice to Hong Kong’s travel bureau. I was in the airport on
Thursday and allowed myself to be interviewed by three of your
very cute representatives. What a great way to pass the time, I
thought. But since they were held separately, your overall results
are skewed.
–My own hotel didn’t have newspapers available until after 7:00
AM so I’d walk outside to get some earlier at the subway station.
By the 3rd morning the woman knew what I wanted beforehand
as she gave me a big smile. I loved it. It’s those little things that
you remember forever.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $387
Oil, $37.38
Returns for the week 4/26-4/30
Dow Jones -2.4% [10225]
S&P 500 -2.9% [1107]
S&P MidCap -4.0%
Russell 2000 -5.2%
Nasdaq -6.3% [1920]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-4/30/04
Dow Jones -2.2%
S&P 500 -0.4%
S&P MidCap +1.3%
Russell 2000 +0.5% [Little guys crushed recently.]
Nasdaq -4.2%
Bulls 50.0
Bears 22.4 [Source: Investors Intelligence…or lack thereof]
Note: Next Saturday’s column may be posted a little later than
normal due to travel from Shanghai back to Hong Kong that day.
I’ll try and post an estimated time if it’s much beyond the usual
7:00 AM ET.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support…from around the
world.
Brian Trumbore
