“Geopolitics and global economies are colliding in ways that we
resist contemplating because the possible consequences are too
upsetting and confusing.”
–Economist Robert Samuelson
I have reached the conclusion that the upheaval we have
witnessed the past few weeks in the Middle East is the beginning
of an irreversible trend and an increasingly violent one.
To understand the extent of the problem, all you have to do is
listen to comments from one of the many Hitler-like figures who
stride the land of Abraham, Jesus, and Muhammad. With each
passing day, thousands fall under their spell.
I used to write about the downside of $10 oil when no one else,
especially in this country, seemed to understand. The Middle
East desperately needs economic development and courageous
leadership. But you can talk all you want about how to attain
this. The fact is the hard-line Islamic Fundamentalists will never
allow it.
The downside of $10 oil was that there was no extra money for
the people of the Arab OPEC nations – after the corrupt Sheikhs
and one-party rulers plundered the treasury – no housing or water
projects, no building of schools, no hope. The Middle East is a
teeming mass of poverty. And in the Islamic world, when you’re
a kid who has no future, you have only one place to turn…the
clerics and their poisonous venom.
Consider just this one fact from Saudi Arabia, supposedly one of
the more “stable” nations in the region. With an exploding
population (as is the case in all of the Arab world), 110,000 hit
the job market each year. There is employment for about 40,000
of them. The rest become part of the “disaffected.”
And when it comes to acts of terrorism, Columnist Jim Hoagland
notes that the Islamic groups have graduated from American
airlines, to the World Trade Center, to military barracks, to
warships…a systematic escalation.
Arab affairs expert, Professor Fouad Ajami, had the following
observations regarding the current upheaval.
“A furious scapegoating and ruinous anti-Americanism has
become a substitute for political reform and practical politics…
“The Arab-Muslim world lies in taunting proximity to the West,
but success and modernity have been denied it. It’s people are in
a no-man’s land; the age-old verities have ruptured, but no new
path is available to them, or to the young foot soldiers of the
campaigns of terror and wrath. A terrible sense of
disappointment grips that world…(while the U.S. has the)
complacent belief that foreign worlds out there have been
mastered and simplified.”
And as the Islamic Fundamentalists make life increasingly difficult
for the U.S. and the West, their surrogates, the Palestinians,
wreak havoc on Israel. The “peace summit” in Egypt this week
was a stop-gap, as all parties knew it would be. The “statement
of understandings” included no specifics. And as of this writing,
Yasser Arafat had not made a public statement reigning in his
forces as was one of the summit’s objectives and, in fact, the
violence has escalated again.
But the full “Arab summit,” convened by Egyptian President
Mubarak, begins today. I called this perhaps the most significant
event we are likely to witness this decade. Of course, by the time
many of you read this, the facts will have begun to filter out.
Nonetheless, I have to offer my own opinion as to what will
happen over the coming days and months.
The summit’s primary purpose is for the Arab world to take a
joint stand against Israel and declare their support for the
Palestinians. Moderates like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan
then must convince their Arab brethren that a full-scale conflict is
not in their interests. But Mubarak, in particular, will still issue
hard-line statements for his public’s consumption in order to save
his own life. [That’s the way it works here.] And Saudi Arabia’s
Crown Prince Abdullah could be expected to utter similar
proclamations.
Caught in the middle is Jordan’s young, heroic King Abdullah.
He so desperately wants to be aligned with the West (and he’s
coming to America next week to sign a free trade agreement between
our two countries), but the King has a huge restive Palestinian
population of his own to deal with. He has the potential to be one
of the great figures of our Age, but one can only wonder how a West-
leaning leader will survive in this cauldron of blood.
But after all of the rhetoric, at the end of the day it just seems as
if events are out of the hands of the policy makers. The terrorists
and the radical clerics call the shots now and their legions are
growing.
Wall Street
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke publicly this
week. While he said that the high price of oil wasn’t a debilitating
issue on the inflation front just yet (and he’s correct, unless oil
stays at present levels, or rises higher, for months to come), he
did have some important comments on the budget games being
played in Washington, as well as out on the campaign trail.
“Most of us harbor doubts about whether the dynamics of the
political process, some of which have been on display in the
current budgetary deliberations, will allow the surpluses to
continue to grow.”
In other words, while you were asleep, Congress was spending
your money like a drunken sailor. And spending…and
spending…
Back in 1997, the Balanced Budget Act allowed for about $550
billion in discretionary federal spending for fiscal 2001. Congress
is now up to $650 billion and counting; a whopping $100 billion
over. [You will also hear the figure of $40-$50 billion. This has
to do with the excess over a spending level revision established
this past spring, when they realized they would run out of booze
if they didn’t set some new guidelines.]
So the profligate budget process is strike one, when projecting
surpluses as far as the eye can see. Strike two, as the New York
Times elaborated on in a front page story Friday, is the fact that
tax revenues from the booming stock market (i.e., on capital
gains) will dry up quickly as the markets return to more historical
rates of return, let alone a year or two below that. And strike
three has to do with defense spending. Cuts in defense
appropriations have been a huge factor in turning the budget form
red to black. But the days of cuts are history. For starters, the
military needs an extra $50 billion, which neither presidential
candidate has called for in their budget projections, just to replace
the military’s rapidly aging weapons.
There was a day early in this bull market, the 1990s version, when
the realization sunk in that budget deficits were shrinking. No
one, Republican or Democrat, had foreseen the tidal wave of
revenues that cascaded in thanks to your hard work. Well, the
day could be rapidly approaching where the whole process goes
into reverse. And when some respected Wall Street sage
(admittedly, this last bit could be hard to find) yells, “Deficits!
Head for the hills!” it could usher in a period of tumultuous
market behavior, for both stocks and bonds. [Yes, even more
tumultuous than we’ve witnessed the last few weeks.]
[Pleasant reading so far, eh?]
As the U.S. economy slows, many are wondering if the Fed’s next
move is down with regards to interest rates. But just as last week
provided a larger-than-expected reading on wholesale prices, this
week the consumer price index for September was a bit
worrisome. While Fed governors don’t believe real wage or
pricing pressures have become a major concern, the fact that the
CPI is now running at an overall rate of 3.8% and trending higher
(the core rate is at a 2.8% annualized level) has to give them
pause.
As for the bond market, traders had to face another full plate; the
Middle East, wrenching equity volatility, Fed concerns, a newly
plunging euro and the ongoing turmoil in the corporate bond
sector. Regarding the latter, the corporate debt issue continues to
garner a lot of the attention as the plunging stock market forced
investors to look beneath the hood in some cases. Liquidity in the
fixed income markets has dried up, in some instances completely,
particularly when it comes to the lowest-rated junk bonds.
The world’s leading bond strategist, PIMCO’s Bill Gross, was
frank in his assessment of corporate bonds this week. Stay away
from them. Gross also sees increasing odds of a “hard landing” in
the U.S. economy (and, by extension, the world).
For the week, the short-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
remained unchanged while the longer end was the beneficiary of a
flight-to-quality, as well as the perception that Greenspan’s
comments were market friendly.
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 5.94% 2-yr. 5.82% 10-yr. 5.63% 30-yr. 5.73%
Turning to stocks, after a 6-week losing streak, all of the major
averages registered gains, but my, it sure wasn’t easy.
After the market closed on Tuesday, IBM announced weaker-
than-expected revenues for the quarter, and its outlook going
forward was none too spiffy either. The markets braced for
Wednesday morning.
The Dow opened down 435 points, to the 9654 level. The
Nasdaq was quickly off about 5% to 3026. I was prepared to
dust off my future best-seller, “Dow Zero.”
But, as I mentioned two weeks ago, the market has been looking
for a true washout and, at least for now, Wednesday proved to be
it.
After all, at its Wednesday lows, the Dow was 18% from its all-
time high, the Nasdaq was down an even 40%! And you all
know that many Nasdaq issues were off anywhere from 50-90%
in just 7 months or less.
So investors, both large and small, perceived that there were
some real bargains out there and the indexes staged a huge rally.
And then on Thursday, the Nasdaq went bonkers as Sun Micro
and Microsoft’s solidly higher earnings led a 7.9% rally. Which
means that in the span of 5 trading days, Nasdaq had recorded 2
of its 3 best percentage gains in history (the other being Friday
the 13th).
By week’s end, the Dow stood at 10226, eking out a 0.3% gain.
But Nasdaq’s 5% advance carried it back to the 3483 level.
Which leaves us where? And is the market back off to the races?
To answer the second question first, no. But where we are is in
the same trading ranges we’ve seen for over 6 months now.
Taking out Wednesday’s low, the Dow has been in a range of
roughly between 10200 and 11200, while the Nasdaq’s incredible
volatility has still been confined to 3100-4200. And, it’s possible
we could remain basically in these ranges for some time. But the
international scene will have something to say about that.
Regular readers know where I’ve stood. I have been a fervent
bear on Nasdaq for a year now. [I have also been consistently
ambivalent about the Dow, the book title notwithstanding.] It
was all about valuations and I am now more than satiated. True,
some issues are still priced for a gangbuster 2001 earnings
picture, but I’ll give that a rest for this week.
What is obviously now clear is that last spring the bubble burst on
those issues without real business prospects and it has been a
slow death ever since. That game is over, finis. There is enough
material there to occupy market historians for decades.
Now, we at least have a partial return to focusing on
fundamentals. Great earnings were rewarded this week. And the
next few weeks could yield more solid report cards. So you
couple that with some coming gyrations in the bond market, a
little international turmoil, and an election between candidates
who’ve already spent your 2001 paycheck (I don”t believe
in Bush”s plan for social security), and you end up with a
stock market. At least it’s no longer purely a casino.
Street Bytes
–Oil: I was out in Oklahoma this week and, while I didn’t need to
go all the way out there to discover that the energy sector has
picked up, it was still enlightening. At the end of 1998, with oil
at $10, energy accounted for 6% of the state’s GDP. Today, it is
approaching 15%. The folks I talked to in the business said one of
the big problems was finding operable rigs. Much of the equipment
had been mothballed and is in need of extensive servicing before
being put to use. And it’s also not easy finding good help.
On a broader scale, the price of crude dropped $2 this week, but
stubbornly remains well above $30 as inventories in the U.S.
continued to fall. Saudi Arabia said it would act alone, if
necessary, to bring prices down. OPEC meets on November 12
but is slated to begin releasing an additional 500,000 barrels per
its previous agreement on November 1st.
The heating oil situation in the northeast is still precarious, despite
some published reports to the contrary. The much ballyhooed
release from the Strategic Reserves will add only 250,000 barrels
to the stockpile.
And what does this all mean? Yes, more crude and natural gas is
definitely coming on stream. But while everyone seems to think
the Arab OPEC nations have learned their economic lessons well
and that we shouldn’t expect a supply disruption in the Middle
East, I wouldn’t be so sure. Barring one, however, the price of
crude depends on the weather. If it’s mild, by spring oil should be
in the $25 neighborhood. If it’s cold, we’ll see $30+ prices for
quite awhile. If it’s cold and the Arabs do something bad, make
sure you have firewood.
–Euro(pe): The currency fell to near record low levels this week.
So much for the intervention of just a few weeks ago. Win
Duisenberg, head of the European Central Bank, could use a few
lessons in “Greenspeak.” He is very outspoken and found reason
to rattle the markets by proclaiming that there wouldn’t be any
more currency interventions in the foreseeable future. So, in
essence, he admitted that the prior intervention was a worthless
exercise.
At the same time, the ECB has continued to raise interest rates to
stem the flow of capital and reduce inflation pressures. But this
obsession with a euro-zone inflation target of 2% is doing more
harm than good to the overall economy. Our own Fed is
hopefully taking notes, just as they did in the case of Japan in the
late 1980s.
–eBay: Oh well, just one valuation comment. EBay reported
stronger-than-expected earnings late Thursday. The stock rose
from $57 to $67 by late Friday morning. But a funny thing
happened on the way to the close, eBay plunged back to $58.
Meanwhile, Friday morning one leading analyst reiterated their
“buy” rating on the issue while lowering the price target from
$142 to $95. EBay is slated to earn about 40 cents in 2001 (I’m
adding a few pennies to the current consensus estimate). Divide
that into $58. And note the reduced price target. What you have
is not only lowered expectations, but the continued beginnings of
a return to sanity, both with this issue and the markets in general.
–Bond Funds: For various reasons, I refuse to get caught up in
the stock selection game. I’m very open, however, about what
specific sectors I like in the market, though that’s been boring
for you as I’ve been in oil since February 1999.
But I know that some of you may have realized the past few
months that you need to diversify a bit more than you may have
been doing.
Having worked at PIMCO Funds prior to launching this site, I
know a thing or two about the organization. When it comes to
bonds, they are the best. And it’s not even close.
So I have no problem in recommending one fund, specifically, for
some of your fixed income needs. The PIMCO Total Return
Fund managed by superstar Bill Gross.
But you must understand that this is far from the highest yielding
bond fund. [I could spend 20 pages discussing that topic.]
What you gain is a high quality, diversified portfolio, where the
net asset value will not fluctuate an inordinate amount with
changes in interest rates.
Yes, this fund’s value can go down. If interest rates rise, the
NAV will most likely fall some. But I can virtually guar—–
(oops, almost used the “G-word”) that if interest rates were to
rise some 1-2% over a relatively short period of time, this fund
will outperform the equity markets. It’s a function of its risk /
reward model…as well as the normal relationship between the
stock and bond markets.
Believe me, I receive nothing from PIMCO for saying this. It
took me almost two years just to go this far. I just feel obligated
to offer an investment suggestion that I have the highest
confidence in. [I do NOT currently own the fund myself, though
I have in the past. Not owning it today is due to cash flow
considerations for my business.]
International
North Korea: The march to a summit continues. But foreign
affairs analyst Fred Hiatt writes in the Washington Post that he
can’t understand all our kowtowing to a killer. North Korea’s
Kim Jong-Il was directly responsible for all manner of terrorist
actions. And the U.S. hasn’t been saying anything about the
North’s abysmal human rights record.
On the other hand, South Korea plows ahead, literally. This week
some pretty nifty minesweepers of theirs cleared a path between
North and South. [Farmers take note…these look like a real
time-saver when it comes to tilling the soil.]
China: Prime Minister Zhu Rongji (#2) took a trip to Japan where
he called cooperation between the two nations vital for the
“peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.” Zhu
sought to promote mutual trust and, at least in his public
statements, chose to ignore Japan’s brutal colonial occupation of
his country some 60-70 years ago. So, I guess you could call it
one step forward.
But then China issued another of its “white” papers, somewhat
stronger than the rice variety, which once again threatened
military action against Taiwan unless they gave up thoughts of
independence. They also had a few lines in there that they were
not willing to wait out Taiwan President Chen’s full 4-year term
before acting.
As to the Chinese economy, the government reported that it grew
at an 8.2% clip in the third quarter, better-than-expected, but for
the 1st 9 months of this year, rural incomes rose just 2.5% vs. an
8.4% rise for urban folks. The disparity between the two only
adds to the unrest in the hinterlands which, as tens of millions
relocate to the cities to seek better lives, makes for an explosive
situation in the urban areas as well. Throw in a little true free
trade and the dismantling of archaic industries and Ka-Boom!!
Finally, the Washington Post had a report that the FBI is
switching gears on its Chinese espionage probe and has shifted
focus to the Defense Department and its private contractors.
Well, heck, why they ever abandoned this missile probe was one
of the great mysteries here in the home office of StocksandNews.
Two years ago, some very high profile American business leaders
were being investigated for their roles, if any, in passing along
missile secrets…Michael Armstrong (then at Hughes, now
AT&T) and Bernard Schwarz (Loral). The Post article doesn’t
mention this last fact, I just did. And where has Congress been all
this time?
Latin America: Defense chiefs on the continent met with U.S.
Defense Secretary Cohen to voice their displeasure over “Plan
Colombia,” while fighting escalated along the Colombian –
Ecuadorean border. Over 50 Colombian soldiers were killed this
week.
Balkans: The ouster of Milosevic in Serbia, in a bizarre but totally
expected way (at least to this writer), has unleashed a potential
whirlwind. Montenegro is upset that the U.S. now seems to have
abandoned support for their independence plans. Serbian
President Kostunica is trying to keep Montenegro in the fold.
Meanwhile, Bosnian Serbs are mumbling about unification with
their Serbian brothers. Actually, in the flash point town of Brcko,
they are more than mumbling. They’re beating up Muslims and
throwing rocks at U.S. peacekeepers. And now Croatia is
demanding that Serbia pay war damages for the 1991-95 conflict
on their land. Plus there’s Kosovo. What happens to it now?
Iraq: Planes continue to fly into Baghdad International, in total
defiance of U.N. sanctions. Arab nations have flown 26 flights
since Russia and France got the ball rolling last month. Of
course, all of these flights are labeled “humanitarian” in nature, a
rather large hunk of B.S., and the U.S., Britain, and the U.N.
seem powerless to stop them.
Russia: The White House refuses to let Congress view details of
the 1995 secret agreement between former Russian Prime
Minister Chernomyrdin and Al Gore which was to eventually
eliminate Russian arms sales to Iran…which it hasn’t. As the
Wall Street Journal opined, “What a window the (deal) is into
how the man who wants to be the next U.S. President would
conduct the nation’s business.”
And the trial of accused U.S. spy Edmond Pope is under way.
Stay tuned. A conviction should result in some tense diplomatic
moments between our two countries.
Nigeria: Ethnic fighting has erupted again between the Yorba and
the Hausa. Over 100 have died. Even worse, this is the nation we
desperately need to lead in the region.
Philippines: Impeachment charges have formally been brought
against President Estrada.
Indonesia: Remember, this is the world’s largest Muslim country.
Rebels here vow revenge on Israelis traveling in the country.
Peru: Evidently, ousted security chief Montesinos is calling the
shots from exile in Panama. President Fujimori wants to stay in
office until next June. Fat chance of that. Out by Christmas, says
the editor.
Greece / Turkey: A little tension here over Cyprus. It bears
watching. Hopefully, someone in the State Department is
watching too.
Zimbabwe: Violent food riots as the opposition grows bolder in
its attacks against President Mugabe, candidate for
StocksandNews “Dirtball of the Year.” 4 reporters were whipped
and beaten. The economy collapsed a year ago and soaring
inflation, coupled with a coming scarcity of food, makes for a
combustible situation.
Pakistan: Did you see the “60 Minutes” piece on this nation last
week? It should have scared the heck out of you. The Islamic
Fundamentalists seem poised to take over in the coming year or
two. Nothing like some loose nukes in their hands.
Belarus: Held sham parliamentary elections which are so
confusing I can’t begin to explain them. It makes your brain hurt.
Bottom line, the international community is increasingly turning
against dictator Lukashenko.
USS Cole
It was inappropriate for me to comment beyond the initial tragedy
last week. But now, it’s obvious there were some serious lapses
in security. Someone must have hacked into our navy’s computer
system to receive the docking and refueling schedules.
Retired Secretary of the Navy John Lehman commented this
week on the inability of our intelligence community to decipher
what is a real threat and what isn’t, as in Kuwait and other
instances.
“(The) Cole is the latest victim of a $30 billion jobs program (for
the intelligence establishment) that takes the most wondrous
products of space and electronic technology and turns them into
useless mush.”
And, as a result of the terrorist attack, the U.S. now has 2,000
marines in and outside the city of Aden in Yemen. You can
imagine how this will only further inflame tensions and enrage our
enemies.
Random Musings
–The Election: No more need to report on the polls. Everyone
knows the race is going down to the wire and that we’ll be up
very late on election night. If you were watching the same debate
I was, you once again saw a man, Al Gore, who simply isn’t
likable. Whether you agree or not with his policies, or feel that
Bush is the answer, is a different matter. It’s never mentioned
that Al Gore was not well-liked by his Senate colleagues.
Reporters cover this up by saying, well, when you get him one-
on-one he’s really charming. Yeah, but he had no friends where it
counted!
MTV released a well-publicized poll this week which revealed
that 25% of 18-24-year-olds couldn’t name the two major
presidential candidates. Maybe I shouldn’t find that staggering,
but I do. On the other hand, when I was a senior at Wake Forest
in 1980, I think I was the only one on campus who was fired up
to listen to Independent candidate John Anderson give an hour
speech on the MX-missile. [And Anderson received my vote.]
Separately, the New York Senate race is deadlocked and, in New
Jersey, Democratic megabucks candidate Jon Corzine has a 12-
point lead over my man, Bob Franks. But to further show the
ignorance of the average voter these days, only 24% of Jerseyans
have a clue as to just how much Corzine is spending ($55
million). And if you’re a candidate in New York, New Jersey, or
southern Connecticut, forget gaining any free TV coverage these
next 6-9 days. It’s Subway Series time!
–Italy and Switzerland are suffering through their own “100-year
flooding” as over 30 have died. It seems like half of the world
has witnessed this kind of devestation in just the past two years.
Meanwhile, flooding in Vietnam has claimed over 600 lives,
mostly children.
–I have written of rock star Bono’s efforts to win debt relief for
Third World countries. Well, this week he scored a huge victory
in almost single-handedly convincing the U.S. Congress to
approve a significant package. It’s really a great story. Hey
Bono, how about a few words for our StocksandNews
microphone? [We only have one.]
–Donna Leusner of the Star-Ledger had an article dealing with a
new study which shows that children who talk to their parents
every day are less likely to abuse drugs. That means
anything…debt relief, Osama bin Laden, the euro…
–Robin Blumenthal had an interesting piece in Barron’s (10/16)
detailing the residential real estate market across the country from
an “under/overvalued” standpoint. As you might suspect, Silicon
Valley home prices were deemed to be 25% overvalued. Upstate
New York has the most undervalued markets.
–Fascinating excerpt of Richard Ben Cramer’s new book, “Joe
DiMaggio: The Hero’s Life,” in the 10/23 issue of Newsweek.
Joe D was one miserable guy. Did I say ‘Go Mets’ yet?
–Independent counsel Robert Ray issued his travel office report
wherein he said that Hillary Clinton gave “factually false”
testimony in denying she had a role in the White House travel
office firings, but there wasn’t enough evidence to prosecute.
Ray’s timing was poor, however.
–In El Salvador, the government had to ban all alcohol because
of a bizarre poisoning case which had killed 120 by Monday.
Someone was putting methanol in the firewater. [As of week’s
end, I did not know if anyone was caught. But I wasted no time
in trashing my El Salvador Lite.]
–Minister Louis Farrakhan led the Million Family March in D.C.
this week. Ever since disputes arose over the crowd figure for
the Million Man March, years earlier, the National Park Service
has stopped estimating crowds. A Farrakhan spokesman, in his
best Al Gore imitation, labeled it “3 million.”
Well, I’ll stick with the official StocksandNews estimate of
100,000, or, in other words, far less than the Beach Boys, who
drew a crowd of 450,000 in Washington back on the 4th of July in
1985.
But Farrakhan did best former perennial Communist Party
presidential candidate Gus Hall in the numbers game. Hall died
this week at age 90. The most votes he ever captured in any
single election was just 59,000.
So I got to thinking; maybe Ed McMahon and Dick Clark could
lead the “American Family Publishers” march on Washington!
No purchase required.
Oklahoma Memories
And now, if you’ll indulge me for a few moments, let me tell you
a little about my trip to Oklahoma this week. First off,
understand that I hadn’t been back here in 22 years and returned
for a number of reasons. What I rediscovered is that the people
of this great state are simply the nicest, most genuine folks I have
ever come across in my many travels, both here and abroad.
I had the opportunity to put on about 1,000 miles in my four full
days there. An opportunity because that is the only way to really
see a place. And I have to thank the state Department of
Agriculture, and Janet Stewart, for helping me connect with the
Baker family.
Gene and Kara Lee Baker own a 160-acre farm near the
Panhandle. They allowed me to spend some time with them so I
could begin (emphasis on “begin”) to learn the farming business.
They have 40 dairy cattle, about an equal number of hogs, and
Gene plans to grow some winter wheat this year.
The two of them have 6 children. And Kara Lee, you should
have heard Gene talk about what it is like to farm, while at the
same time being able to watch the kids grow up on a more
intimate basis than many American families are used to these
days.
Gene’s father introduced him to farming, though the Bakers are
the first to own this particular property. And while it is never
easy for the family farmer in America these days, I know the
Bakers will somehow persevere.
I’m just hoping that the two of them will stay in touch with
me…so that I don’t have to continually bug them!…in order to
help me present a more complete view of America when I write
these pieces. And Kara Lee, that was a great meal!
Being based as I was in Oklahoma City, I was but a few blocks
from the memorial to the tragic terrorist attack of April 1995. It
is a deeply moving site and I’m glad I didn’t view it until I had
been in town a few days.
You see, what I remember in watching the events of that awful
day as they unfolded was how beautiful and kind the citizens of
OKC seemed to be. I wondered how many of them were able to
maintain their composure during the rescue effort. There were so
many heroes that day, and in the weeks and months that followed.
But as I walked around the grounds, eyes welling up at the site of
the lone surviving tree that seems to grace every human tragedy
of this sort, my heart also began to fill with rage. I realize that’s
not exactly the sentiment one is to feel at a place like this. But I
couldn’t help it.
How could anyone perform such an awful act, especially against
these great people?
So before I left, I stared at those empty chairs once more and
wished that I could personally watch Timothy McVeigh fry.
But, as God so often does, He finds a way to lift you up. And so
it was that my last day I journeyed to Ponca City.
During the summer of 1978, between my sophomore and junior
years in college, I sold books door-to-door for the Southwestern
Book Company in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
My experience that summer wasn’t a good one. While I stuck it
out the whole time, I had to be the worst salesman in the whole
organization; my heart just wasn’t in it. But I did meet some
good people, the primary one being Gladys Harney. It was really
for her that I took my trip this week.
You have to understand that after being assigned to work
Shawnee, Oklahoma for the first two weeks of the summer (with
my very first sale coming at the Shawnee Indian Reservation,
roaches crawling all over my legs during my presentation), my
two cohorts and I were told to go to Ponca City. We arrived one
Sunday evening, about 9:00 p.m., and didn’t have a place to stay.
[That’s the way the job worked. You never knew until Sunday
afternoon where you might be reassigned to next.]
So we knew that you searched through the older neighborhoods,
looking for homes where elderly folks (specifically, widows)
might live; people who might want a few clean cut college boys
around for a spell.
And so it was that we were drawn to 432 S. Oak, in a nondescript
area about 3 blocks from the Conoco oil refinery. When we
knocked on the door we were greeted by this Aunt Bee-like
woman, Gladys, who appeared to be about 70. She let us in, sat
us on her sofa for the interview, and within 5 minutes started
crying.
It turns out she had buried her husband just 10 days earlier. We
soon realized Gladys needed us. And I was to discover I needed
Gladys.
You see, during the day my two friends, Greg and Dave, drove
their cars through the countryside while I was the “walker.”
Ponca City and the surrounding environs were big enough so that
we figured we’d be there 7-8 weeks.
I ended up spending a lot of time with Gladys. She helped me out
in ways you can’t imagine. And I’d like to think I helped her by
just being there, listening, as she went through her grieving
process before she embarked on the next chapter in her life.
It was a sorrowful moment when it was time for us to move on into
Kansas.
Gladys and I stayed in touch after I got back to school and for
many years thereafter. A card here, a letter there. She sent me a
picture of her new husband, Jerry, and I was so happy for her.
Alas, after around 1986 we lost contact. Looking back, I don’t
know if it was anyone’s fault. But for years after, the thought of
going back had a permanent place in my heart…more like a
gnawing. I knew I eventually needed to do it.
So I drove the 100 miles up to Ponca City and, after 22 years,
without help made a beeline to 432 S. Oak. No one was home
there but, next door, the girl said a new family had just moved in
and she hadn’t, herself, heard of Gladys.
I was expecting this, of course. I knew, number one, that the
chances of Gladys still being alive were slim. And if she was,
tracking her down wouldn’t be easy.
I drove around town for just about 5 minutes when straight ahead
there was a senior community center. At first I hesitated, then
thought, what the heck. It was about 12:30 p.m. and I
interrupted game time. I received a bemused look from the
crowd.
“Hi, I’m Brian from New Jersey.”
“Hi, Brian from New Jersey,” they seemed to say in unison.
I explained my mission and, while some of the folks seemed to
have a faint remembrance, I feared I was out of luck.
Then a woman in the corner who wasn’t part of the formal group
said, “I can help you, Brian.”
And so Mary Jo gave me the phone number for Velda. “Velda
should know what happened to her.”
As luck would have it, Velda was home and, yes, she knew
Gladys. Gladys had passed away about 5 years earlier. But what
warmed my heart was to learn that she was active right up to the
end.
Velda and I had a great chat and I spent the next 30 minutes after
the call riding around Ponca City, smiling. In fact, I think I had a
smile on my face the whole drive back to OKC.
I tell this story because I imagine most of you have had a similar
experience. I closed a chapter in my life this week. God bless
you, Gladys. We’ll catch up later.
—-
Gold closed at $271
Oil, $32.95 [New December contract]
Returns for the week, 10/16 – 10/20
Dow Jones +0.3%
S&P 500 +1.7%
S&P MidCap +2.8%
Russell 2000 +1.5%
Nasdaq +5.0%
Returns for the period, 1/1/00-10/20/00
Dow Jones -11.0%
S&P 500 -4.9%
S&P MidCap +15.9%
Russell 2000 -3.4%
Nasdaq -14.4%
Bulls 46.8%
Bears 28.4% [Investors Intelligence revised the figures for last
week. They should have read 47.6 and 32.0, respectively.]
CONTEST: Don’t forget. The deadline for our “Pick the Dow”
contest is November 1st. Click on the logo above.
Brian Trumbore
