Various market returns and benchmarks…..
2006 [Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and S&P]
Dow Jones………+19.0
S&P 500…….…+15.8
Nasdaq………….+9.5
Tokyo………….+6.9 [Nikkei]
London…………+10.7 [FTSE]
Frankfurt………+22.0 [DAX]
Energy…all-time highs
Oil, $77.03 (7/14/06…West TX Intermediate…hit $78 intraday)
Unleaded gasoline futures, $2.92 (8/31/05…due to Katrina)
Natural gas futures, $15.37 (12/13/05…Katrina-related)
Key historical figures
12/31/99
Dow Jones…11497
S&P 500…….1469
Nasdaq………4069
Market highs…2000
Dow Jones…11722 (1/14)
S&P 500……1527 (3/24)*
Nasdaq………5048 (3/10)*
*remains all-time mark
12/31/06
Dow Jones…12463…52-wk range [12510-10667]
S&P 500……1418….52-wk range [1427-1223]
Nasdaq………2415….52-wk range [2465-2020]
—
S&P 500 [Total return…including dividends]
1995…+37.4
1996…+23.1
1997…+33.4
1998…+28.6
1999…+21.0
2000….-9.1
2001…-11.9
2002…-22.1
2003…+28.7
2004…+10.9
2005…+4.9
2006…+15.8
Nasdaq
1995…+39.9
1996…+22.7
1997…+21.6
1998…+39.6
1999…+85.6
2000…-39.3
2001…-21.1
2002…-31.5
2003…+50.0
2004…+8.6
2005…+1.4
2006…+9.5
Gold
12/96…$368
12/97…$289
12/98…$288
12/99…$289
12/00…$272
12/01…$279
12/02…$347
12/03…$416
12/04…$438
12/05…$519
12/06…$638
Oil (Light Sweet Crude)
12/99…$25.20
12/00…$26.80
12/01…$19.84
12/02…$31.20
12/03…$32.52
12/04…$43.45
12/05…$61.04
12/06…$61.05
Interest Rates…U.S. Treasury Yields
Date……..2-year….10-year
12/31/99…6.24……..6.43
6/13/03…..1.01……..3.10…historic lows in yield
12/31/03…1.82……..4.25
12/31/04…3.07……..4.22
12/31/05…4.40……..4.39
12/31/06…4.82……..4.72
—
The month of January supplies us with two interesting indicators;
the “first five days” early warning system and the full-month
barometer (which I’ll cover next week).
Employing the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over
the first five days of the year 36 times. In 31 of these the market
has then proceeded to post full-year gains. [The record is more
mixed, 11 up / 10 down, in the 21 years where the market
declined the first five days.]
A sampling…
S&P 500…Total return…1st 5 days / Jan.
1995……… +37.4%……….. +0.3%
1996……… +23.1…………. +0.4
1997……… +33.4…………. +1.0
1998……… +28.6…………. -1.5
1999……… +21.0…………. +3.7
2000……….. -9.1………….. -1.9
2001………. -11.9…………. -1.8
2002………. -22.1…………. +1.1
2003……… +28.7…………. +3.4
2004……… +10.9…………. +1.8
2005………..+4.9……………-2.1
2006……….+15.8…………..+3.4
Source: “Stock Trader’s Almanac / 2006.” *Note: I have listed
the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including
dividends. “Stock Trader’s Almanac” only uses the gross figure
for the index without including dividends.
Have a healthy and prosperous new year.
Wall Street History returns next week with more data.
Brian Trumbore
