[Posted 6:00 AM ET…Casablanca, Morocco]
Diplomacy and North Korea
I believe in talking to one’s adversaries. I believe in diplomacy
and negotiation if for no other reason than to flush out your
opponent’s position for all to see; have everyone lay their cards
on the table and then you decide how best to proceed.
But throughout history diplomacy hasn’t always worked, as in
1938 and the Munich Agreement, thanks to one party or another
being duped.
Such may possibly be the case with the just concluded
arrangement at the six-party talks over North Korea’s nuclear
weapons program, though my adage of ‘wait 24 hours’ should
probably be applied in the interest of fairness. My guess just
happens to be that shining more light isn’t likely to brighten the
picture any.
Here’s what we do know. Kim Jong-il will initially receive
50,000 tons of badly needed fuel oil, with another 950,000 tons
to come if in 60 days North Korea seals its reactor at Yongbyon
and begins accounting for other nuclear weapons-related activity.
That’s basically it.
Under the agreement, North Korea keeps its existing nuclear
weapons (generally thought to be up to 12), while Pyongyang’s
initial reaction to the papers signed in Beijing was to call it
merely a “temporary suspension” on work at its disputed
facilities.
The White House says that nonetheless this is an important first
step, and indeed it may well be; that North Korea can receive
more cash (in terms of a reduction in financial sanctions) and
prizes (food, oil and security guarantees) if it does in fact go on
to dismantle the nukes.
But as of today it doesn’t have to, so it just buys more time and
further opportunities to hold up the United States, and to a lesser
extent the other parties at the table, for greater concessions.
Former UN Ambassador John Bolton immediately blasted the
deal, saying the “(risk of war) is greater on the Korean
Peninsula” than ever before in providing Kim benefits for
minimal effort. “(It’s) a charade; gives people the illusion of
success,” said Bolton, adding it also says to Iran “you can wear
the United States down.” Mr. Bolton is spot on when he
observes that all we’ve seen is “change after change after change
in U.S. policy.”
For its part the White House is trying to convince us this is a
better deal than the unmitigated disaster worked out by the
Clinton administration, but it’s nothing more than more of the
same.
The fact is North Korea has nuclear weapons activities taking
place at far more locations than just Yongbyon and the
negotiations to open these up will be tortuous.
The other problem is if this had been a one-on-one negotiation
just between the U.S. and North Korea, from the start, then if you
were so inclined you could simply call it a good or bad deal. But
South Korea, Japan, Russia and China are also involved. Japan
is basically on our side, seeking even tougher sanctions on the
North, Seoul and Beijing are placating Kim for different reasons,
while Russia is ambivalent.
Both Russia and China are not ambivalent when it comes to the
issue of Iran and its weapons program. And as John Bolton
correctly states, this is where the North Korean framework hurts
the United States. The mullahs would be idiots not to hold us up,
while at the same time the Bush administration will receive zero
real cooperation from Moscow and Beijing; the former wanting
to keep its lucrative contracts with Iran as well as the formation
of a possible natural gas cartel (I’m not worried about this last
one, however), while China desperately needs Iran’s oil so of
course it’s not about to fully support any hard line taken by the
White House.
Now, as the UN Security Council resolution on the suspension of
Iran’s uranium enrichment activities reaches its deadline next
week, Iran is reportedly going to show the International Atomic
Energy Agency that it has only produced a small amount of
lower-enriched uranium in order to keep the heat off for a while
longer. But this fails to address Iran’s other activities on the
weapons front, at other facilities, and the IAEA is set to lay out
further instances of stonewalling on Tehran’s part when it
releases its report to the Council by Feb. 23.
While I admit I haven’t given the following conclusion as much
thought as I’d like to, my gut reaction is for the U.S. to scuttle
both the six-party framework with North Korea (once the North
inevitably jerks us around) as well as the European-led effort
over Tehran and deal directly with both, solo. I fail to see what
we’ve gained with this North Korean agreement, and I’m afraid
President Bush has telegraphed his intentions to Iran over any
coming agreement there.
But perhaps one part of the Iranian story is true; that U.S. and
Israeli intelligence have been feeding them bad parts to slow
progress on the enrichment front. One can only hope.
What we do know is that for 18 years Iran hid from the world,
and the experts, a nascent nuclear weapons program and there is
zero reason to believe anything the Iranians say today. At the
same time Iran does have a right to nuclear power, but only
under a responsible regime.
In this regard, we know that President Ahmadinejad is skating on
increasingly thin ice, which is probably why he did not announce
a breakthrough on Feb. 11 as I thought he would. Glitches
and/or the façade of only producing lower-grade uranium?
Perhaps. Political pressure to tone down the rhetoric? Likely.
So, I say again, it’s time for the U.S. to open direct talks with
Ahmadinejad’s rival, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and end-run the
Iranian president. Flush out Iran’s position…but do it alone.
The initial sanctions were biting, but there is zero guarantee the
Europeans, let alone Russia and China, will be useful going
forward. We’re the superpower. It’s time to start acting like one
and let the others fend for themselves after we, and we alone,
have dictated the terms of the game.
—
I do have to add that with regards to Iran’s involvement in Iraq, I
don’t disagree with President Bush’s assumption that the
government has some direct involvement in the supplying of
sophisticated weaponry that is taking out our troops and
fomenting civil war. But this is all the more reason for direct,
face-to-face talks, not with some lower level officials, but a
Rafsanjani. If we have the evidence, explain in no uncertain
terms this can not stand. To do it through the airwaves is only
inflaming the situation and supplying Ahmadinejad with fodder
for public consumption…more “evil Satan” talk.
As for Iraq, finally the surge is on. But if Baghdad becomes
increasingly secure, however you want to define this, is it already
too late in terms of public opinion here at home? I said in my
yearend review and look ahead that it would be. I hope I’m
wrong. Friday, the House voted 246-182 on a resolution
opposing the increase in troops, a first step in cutting off funding.
Today the Senate weighs in…unless Republicans can prevent the
House measure from even hitting the Senate floor.
Then there’s………Russia.
For years I have warned that Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov is a
“bad man” and the most significant event in a week filled with
them in discussing the rapidly deteriorating U.S.-Russian
relationship was his elevation to first deputy prime minister,
putting him more than ever out front in the race to succeed
Vladimir Putin, should Putin indeed step aside next year as the
constitution mandates. [I will have my own doubts about Putin’s
intentions until it actually happens.] Putin is bad enough.
Ivanov would be a return to tension city.
But for now, this week Putin told a security conference in
Munich:
“One state, the United States, has overstepped its national
borders in every way. This is very dangerous. Nobody feels
secure anymore because nobody can hide behind international
law. This is nourishing an arms race with the desire of countries
to get nuclear weapons.”
Putin is particularly upset these days with Washington’s moves
to place components of a missile defense system in Poland and
the Czech Republic, subject to negotiations with both.
Of course Mr. Putin conveniently ignored Russia’s own actions
to destabilize the government in Georgia, let alone its holding
Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus hostage at times with regards to
the energy supply. And Putin ignores Russia’s arms sales to
Syria and Iran.
No, instead he alludes to the United States with statements such
as these.
“(There is today) one single center of power. One single center
of force. One single center of decision making. This is the world
of one master, one sovereign.”
Like I said above, when it comes to issues such as Iran and North
Korea, why shouldn’t the U.S. increasingly go it alone? Do you
think Vladimir Putin is going to act in our best interests? Give
me a break.
But while President Bush and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
handle the Kremlin’s intransigence with kid gloves, Senator John
McCain, who distrusted Putin from day one, remember, said:
“In today’s multipolar world, there is no place for needless
confrontation.” The United States won the cold war in
partnership with powerful nations of Western Europe, and “there
are power centers on every continent today.
“Will Russia’s autocratic turn become more pronounced, its
foreign policy more opposed to the principles of the Western
democracies and its energy policy used as a tool of intimidation?
Moscow must understand that it cannot enjoy a genuine
partnership with the West so long as its actions, at home and
abroad, conflict fundamentally with the core values of the Euro-
Atlantic democracies.” [New York Times]
But as if Putin’s remarks last weekend weren’t enough, now
Russia is threatening to break out of the historic 1987
Intermediate-range Nuclear Force treaty that banned nuclear and
conventional ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles. That
was one of Ronald Reagan’s big achievements. Oh were the
likes of him around today, not that John McCain couldn’t fill the
void. Few others on the scene can.
—
Wall Street
I kept up on events as much as I could the past week, but aside
from the ongoing real estate story it doesn’t appear there is too
much to discuss. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his semi-
annual state of the economy message to both Houses of Congress
and he basically told everyone what we already knew, at least
readers of this space. Inflation is not an issue, for crying out
loud. Of course he threw in the obligatory verbiage that if the
economy heats up too much the Fed may have to raise rates
anew, but this is all garbage. Sorry to repeat myself, but, again,
Bernanke, who has obviously done a masterful job thus far,
knows it would be financial suicide to hike rates, though that
doesn’t mean he’s about to lower them either.
Of course where a surprise rate hike would hurt the most is in the
housing sector. Lord knows there is enough suffering already,
and now actual employment in the residential construction
market is about to take a dive as builders wrap up their last
projects that they insisted on completing. They’ll then begin to
take a collective time out, hand out pink slips, and let demand
catch up again with supply. Just how long this takes is anyone’s
guess.
But with this week’s release of the worst housing starts figure in
10 years for the month of January, down 14% and far worse than
expected, I’m taking a bow for being bang on throughout
housing’s slide from Mt. Olympus, even if I was a few years
early.
For every indicator that flashes a signal we may have hit a
bottom, another one or two come around to slap us in the face in
the form of a further reality check. And aside from the abysmal
number on starts, the subprime market continues to take it on the
chin as one lender after another goes under.
Even in the six-county Southern California market, where
median prices have remained surprisingly stable, foreclosure
rates are soaring, as Josh P.’s latest data confirmed is the case in
once white-hot San Diego County.
Here’s what it comes down to. You have a large player like KB
Home issue a statement that it was “encouraged” its cancellation
rate of 48% in the fourth quarter was an improvement from the
53% logged in the third. Now that is truly pitiful and not even
worthy of being called ‘spin.’
Even the National Association of Realtors, whose own chief
economist just last year wrote a rosy book on investing in the
real estate boom, had to admit sales were down 31% in Florida
for the fourth quarter and off 27% in Arizona. I keep thinking
back to what I saw in the Tucson market last October during a
trip there; mile after mile of empty developments, as I reported to
you at the time. Scary stuff if you’re on the wrong side of that
trade.
Lastly, in the Feb. 12 edition of Barron’s, columnist Jonathan
Laing had this to say:
“The future seems anything but bright. The U.S. has yet to feel
the full brunt of upward rate resets on the adjustable-rate
mortgages of recent years, when underwriting standards slipped.
Defaults should spiral higher as monthly payments surge.”
Two items on the energy front of note; al-Qaeda is making waves
about disrupting the flow of oil and gas from Canada and Mexico
to the United States. I said long before 9/11 that I was surprised
terrorists hadn’t targeted Canada’s hydro-electric plants, so,
regardless, one would assume that by now the appropriate
precautions have been taken…you have done that, right guys?
And the price of crude, which had fallen below $58, rallied back
to finish the week at $59.35 on reports the violence in key-oil
producing Nigeria was set to expand.
Street Bytes
–Another record for the Dow Jones, the last three days of the
week, in fact, as the index closed up 1.5% to 12767. The S&P
500 tacked on 1.2% and Nasdaq added 1.5%. All is calm…all is
bright; except for the fact earnings growth will be decelerating
all year and the news from tech land recently has been far from
inspiring.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.14% 2-yr. 4.83% 10-yr. 4.69% 30-yr. 4.79%
Treasuries staged a solid rally as Friday’s tame report on
producer (wholesale) prices, coupled with the weak housing data
and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s sanguine comments, assuaged
trader’s fears the Fed will have cause to hike interest rates.
But while it didn’t move markets, it does still need to be noted
the U.S. closed 2006 with another record trade deficit, $765
billion, including a $233 billion one with China, which thus
guarantees more talk of protectionism.
–DaimlerChrysler is going to be laying off 13,000 in its Chrysler
division, as well as closing plants, and it’s strongly hinting it
would be willing to sell all or a portion of Chrysler outright; a
stark admission the merger has been a disaster. On Friday,
Automotive News reported GM could be the acquirer, which
would lead to yet another massive downsizing effort, a sharp
reduction in brands, etc.
–The reception for Microsoft’s new Vista operating system
software has been so poor, even CEO Steve Ballmer had to admit
the company’s own normally conservative forecasts were “overly
aggressive.”
–I see I missed quite a weather mess back home [it’s sunny and
70 in Casablanca], with some of the biggest sufferers being those
flying on JetBlue out of New York and one particular Delta
international flight. I’ve been stuck on a runway for four hours
due to weather, but I can’t imagine how I’d react if it were 10 or
11 like these passengers were forced to endure. Actually, I do
know what would happen. I’d snap…and the plane would be
reduced to a tiny pile of steel, leaving startled fellow passengers
and crew on the tarmac saying “Everything is going to be alright,
Editor. Now calmly drop the last pretzels.”
–The Venezuelan government offered Verizon $572 million for
its 28.5% stake in national telecom CANTV, or about $100
million less than one prominent investor was willing to pay
Verizon before President Hugo Chavez decided to nationalize the
company.
–Google was accused by major media groups of benefiting from
the sale of pirated movies by directing traffic to sites engaged in
fostering piracy. It’s not as much about actual money (though
Google would be paid by any advertisers), but rather yet another
important example of Google’s sloppy internal controls.
–The investigation into Germany’s Siemens AG, already
involving over $500 million in fraudulent transactions, is now
spreading to include Russia’s telecom minister, Leonid Reiman,
who, surprise surprise, happens to be yet another of Vladimir
Putin’s dear friends.
–By one gauge, CD music sales are off a staggering 20% thus far
in 2007.
–For the archives, I just have to list a few facts from the Fortress
Investments IPO that came out about 10 days ago and which I
failed to report on. It was the first private equity/hedge fund to
be offered in such a manner to the public and its shares soared
68% the first day. But what I didn’t know until last weekend
was that Fortress’s five principals saw their stake worth a
collective $9.7 billion at the close the first day. In other words,
expect a lot more of these.
–Hershey’s is lopping off 1,500 jobs and moving more
production to Mexico. “Some Reese’s Pieces, Senor?” “Si.”
–CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo is certainly receiving her share of
tabloid press these days. In fact it’s gotten so bad the New York
Post is dredging up stories concerning her high school flings.
But you have to laugh at the more ‘serious’ stories in the Wall
Street Journal and New York Times, because you know the
reporters just want to come out and write what is on everyone’s
mind. “Yoh, Maria, did you sleep with Todd Thomson or
what?!”
[It’s also clear Maria has really ticked off some of her colleagues
at CNBC, yet the station officially continues to back her.]
–My portfolio: I haven’t done anything in weeks since a little
flurry of activity buying some oil and gas issues, as well as
alternative energy plays, but I have to comment on the carbon
fiber stock that was my predominant holding all of 2006.
Rounding off, long-time readers will recall I bought it around
$10, watched it soar to $39 early in ’06, didn’t sell, and then
watched it tumble back to $20.
It was one earnings disappointment after another, but more
importantly a classic case of mismanagement. However, I still
believed in the story.
Then this lawsuit out of leftfield came up and it appeared it
would drastically impact the company’s ability to add more
carbon fiber lines to fuel future growth. It also called into
question the company’s very viability.
So with management providing zero guidance, I dumped the
shares at $20, the stock moved down to $17, and then early this
year stabilized again around the $20 level. There was no news
whatsoever, the outfit having the worst investor relations
department in the history of Wall Street (excepting acts like
Enron, of course), but I thought what the heck, I’ll just buy back
a little (exactly 1/12th of what I had before), in case the suit
works out. I believe in one column I wrote I’d feel better buying
it back at $26, in size, if there was a satisfactory resolution to the
case, but until then I couldn’t do more.
Well, guess what? The stock is at $31, having soared the past
two weeks on a better than expected earnings announcement, but
still nothing more on the lawsuit and remaining questions about
the ability to finance future expansion needs.
I look at this whole situation from two angles. First, I’m sick for
not holding it after all my trouble. [I once schlepped down to
Abilene, TX, to check out one of its two main production
facilities.] Second, I’d like to think I’m a fairly smart investor
and I have still been given zero cause for optimism on the suit
not impacting future growth. In other words, you’re still largely
buying ‘hope’ and I’ve been down that road before.
So one hand I’m slightly happy my now drastically reduced stake
is at least rising. On the other, I’m one frustrated cowboy
because I don’t see where I went wrong in my thinking and yet I
feel like I’m personally being punished….and that’s the last
you’ll be forced to read about it.
More Foreign Affairs
Afghanistan: Sen. John McCain, in comments to the Financial
Times that were later largely echoed by President Bush.
“There will undoubtedly be an offensive this spring….The only
question is whether it will be NATO’s offensive or the Taliban’s.
NATO members can help ensure that we keep the Taliban on
their heels by at least matching the U.S. troop increase of 3,000
and by reconsidering national caveats [such as in use of force]….
“If NATO does not prevail in Afghanistan, it is difficult to
imagine the alliance undertaking another ‘hard security’
operation – in or out of area – and its credibility would suffer a
grievous blow.”
McCain also emphasized that NATO should be contributing the
same amount of money the U.S. is, over $10 billion, towards a
renewed reconstruction effort, citing the outgoing commander of
U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, who said “Where
roads end, the Taliban begins.”
China: Since the 1980’s, 2/3s of those who have studied abroad
stayed there and didn’t return to the homeland. This brain drain
has China’s government worried big time…as it should be. [Of
course some of those who remain overseas are spies.]
Zimbabwe: Remember 1,000 inflation? It’s now 1,600%! Can
you imagine having to play “The Price is Right” here? “Oh, so
sorry, Mr. Mugabe. Your figure of $1,000 may have been
correct just two days ago, but now that refrigerator goes for
$25,000.”
Morocco…and why am I here? I have to admit, while I’ve
always known Morocco was a friend of the United States, I
didn’t realize just how historic some of our ties are. Like did you
know Morocco was the first, back in 1777, to recognize the
fledgling government being hashed out in Philadelphia, and that
the 1787 peace treaty signed between the sultans and America is
the longest, unbroken one the U.S. has? It’s true.
The U.S. and Morocco also concluded a free trade agreement just
last year, though the level of commerce between the two is
minimal thus far. Nonetheless, it was a significant first step in
the creation of a Middle Eastern free trade zone, if the Democrats
will let it happen.
Of course technically Morocco is in North Africa, but most think
of it as part of the Middle East because it shares many of the
latter’s problems and much of its history.
Back in 1986, then King Hassan II boldly invited Israeli Prime
Minister Shimon Peres to Morocco for talks at a time when this
was frowned upon throughout the region, to put it mildly, and
Morocco was one of the first to declare solidarity with the U.S.
following 9/11.
Morocco is a country of about 33 million, with the political
capital in Rabat and the financial center here in Casablanca. It’s
99% Muslim (really 99.9%…and almost solely Sunni), with
perhaps 4,000 Jews and an equal number of Christians.
However, both Jews and Christians are allowed to practice their
faiths freely and there is no conflict whatsoever in this regard.
Where there is a problem, as is the case throughout this entire
region, is in opportunities for the downtrodden and less educated.
The literacy rate in Morocco is only 52% and unemployment is
about 20% in the urban areas. This breeds restlessness, and these
days, terrorists.
So it was that on May 22, 2003, a staggering 14 suicide bombers
(one was caught beforehand) set themselves off in Casablanca,
killing over 40 others at five key places, including a hotel and
restaurant frequented by foreigners. I have seen two of the
locations thus far and one is still a shambles, while the other, a
hotel, has taken four years to repair (and will reopen shortly it
would appear).
And this week the trial of 29 suspects in the Madrid train
bombings of 3/11/04 got underway, significant here because the
leaders are all said to be Moroccan, as were many of the
bombers.
So as I walk along the streets of Casablanca, I’m well aware that
someone I might pass could be an evil doer. But then when
friends and family question some of my travels, all I have to do
is point to incidents like at the shopping mall in Utah or the
shooting at a board of directors meeting in Philadelphia. Trust
me, the biggest danger we all face in life is when we’re in our
cars or just crossing the street. Speaking of the latter, I have
never been anywhere in my life where pedestrians just blindly
cross major roadways with such disregard for their safety as they
do here. At least in Shanghai, it’s the drivers who are out to kill
you. In Casablanca, it seems like the pedestrians have their own
death wish.
Spain: Just a brief note on another item of interest here. The
Spanish Supreme Court created quite a furor when it cut the
prison sentence of a Basque separatist (ETA) killer from twelve
years to three. It’s even more remarkable that the man, who was
convicted of 25 killings in 1987, was originally just sentenced to
18 years, then given another twelve, but now the court has ruled
this was basically too much. For the families of more than 800
victims of ETA bombings and attacks, it’s a travesty.
Britain: And here’s an outrage. Six truckloads of potentially
infected turkey meat from the Bernard Matthews plant in Britain
were sent to Hungary last week even after it was confirmed the
H5N1 bird flu virus had been found in other birds tied to the
facility. This is causing a real stink between the two countries, to
say the least, and it’s through such callous behavior that some
day a lethal virus will erupt across the globe. [On a related
matter, Indonesia continues to be obstinate in handing over some
of its bird flu records to world health officials.]
Random Musings
–I was able to catch Barack Obama’s appearance on “60
Minutes” last Sunday from an airport lounge at Newark Airport
and I remain unimpressed.
I love mavericks. I’ve voted twice for third party presidential
candidates, after all, but Obama troubles me and yet I can’t
exactly pinpoint the reason why. Or perhaps I should say I don’t
understand why I’m supposed to accept this man as my savior,
because that is just the way he seems to be portraying himself
while at the same time there is zero substance to base it on.
He also showed an incredible lack of diplomatic skill in taking
on Australian Prime Minister John Howard for his comment that
an Obama victory is a victory for the terrorists. [Howard himself
caught a huge amount of flack back home for this rather dumb
remark, as much as I like Mr. Howard.] Obama, instead of
emphasizing that, while disappointed, he values the strategic
partnership that Australia and the United States share, stupidly
started talking about percentages of troops on the ground and
how Australia ought to basically put up or shut up. No, Barack.
When tested like this, especially by someone that is not even part
of your electorate, for now learn to take the high road. It’s for
reasons like this that I maintain Obama’s candidacy will yet go
up in flames.
I also said the other day that I was already sick of the 2008 race,
but I need to clarify this. Of course I will always be interested,
I’m just sick of how early the campaign has started this time
around.
But just wait until August, because your editor has already
booked his flights and hotel for the Iowa State Fair. In fact, I can
guarantee I have some reporter or campaign staff’s seat and/or
room (at least at the nicer joints) who isn’t as yet thinking as far
enough ahead as they should. StocksandNews will be up close
and personal for the real story.
–Peggy Noonan, in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, on the
difference between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.
“(It) is significant that in Mrs. Clinton’s case, for the past 30
years, from 1978 through 2007 – which is to say throughout
most, almost all, of her adulthood – her view of America, and of
American life, came through the tinted window of a limousine.
[Now the view is, mostly, through the tinted window of an
SUV.]
“From first lady of Arkansas through first lady of the United
States to U.S. senator, her life has been eased and cosseted by
staff – by aides, drivers, cooks, Secret Service, etc. Her life has
been lived within a motorcade. And so she didn’t have to worry
about crime, the cost of things, the culture. Status incubates.
Rudy Giuliani was fighting a deterioration she didn’t have to
face. That’s a big difference. It’s the difference between the
New Yorker in the subway and the Wall Street titan in the town
car.”
–A nationwide poll for USA Today/Gallup has Sen. Clinton 19
points ahead of Obama, with Rudy Giuliani a surprising 16 ahead
of John McCain. McCain has hit a real dry patch, obviously in
large part because of his principled, yet unpopular, stance on the
war.
–It’s disgraceful that until this week the U.S. government was
unwilling to accept more than a handful of Iraqi refugees while at
the same time Egypt, Jordan and Syria are beyond the breaking
point with millions having been displaced and forced to find safe
haven in these countries. Yes, in this instance I even side with
Syria. The recently deceased Gerald Ford offered an example of
how to best handle a crisis of this kind with his insistence the
U.S. save as many Vietnamese boat people as possible at the end
of that conflict. And if we aren’t capable of screening the good
Iraqis from the bad by now, then we might as well just give up
and put the money being spent on homeland security to some
other use.
–Switching gears, here’s a worrisome development. Bee
colonies are being killed off, nationwide, and researchers aren’t
sure just what the culprit is. [It’s not a mite this time.] 3/4s of
all plants rely on pollinators for fertilization. And that’s your
random musing about the birds and the bees, sports fans.
–The Justice Department’s inspector general issued a report
outlining how over the last four years, more than 160 weapons
and 160 laptops have been lost or stolen from the FBI. Great job,
guys.
–Follow-up on my comment from last time that Bill O’Reilly
was full of it when he said there is a lot more excessive drug use
in Hollywood than elsewhere; Bill’s unimaginative comment
coming after Anna Nicole’s death. Last Sunday’s Star-Ledger
(N.J.) had a piece that in Morris County (one of the wealthiest in
the country) drug overdoses hit a 10-year high in 2006, “with 44
people dying from heroin, cocaine and other drugs, according to
law enforcement officials.” I present the facts…you decide.
–I paid $13 for a 16-oz. Heineken at a hotel in Paris this week.
I WANT A STRONGER DOLLAR!
–So you know how I said last week that it’s time to scrap the
Olympic Games altogether because they just don’t make sense
anymore? Ask the residents of Vancouver, host to the 2010
Winter Games, if they agree with me these days. Traffic is a
total nightmare there because they are destroying and rebuilding
ramps, as well as building new tunnels. About now you just
know the majority of Vancouverites are asking themselves, ‘Now
why did we want this?’
–When I go somewhere a little offbeat, I hire out a driver to get
me out into the country, as was the case last fall in both Bulgaria
and Romania. And as I was driving on Thursday to Marrakech
and checking out the peasants along the way, it suddenly hit me
I’ve seen more than my fair share just the last six months. I
really don’t need to see any more, if you catch my drift. Been
there, done that. Instead, give me Paris Hilton. [Sorry…that was
totally inappropriate.]
Anyway, the drive to Marrakech is very long…3 ½ hours each
way…and the scenery was as boring as any I’ve encountered,
until you get to within about 30 miles of Marrakech and the Atlas
Mountains appear. I knew Morocco had mountains, but I didn’t
expect these behemoths, nor did I expect to see more snow on
them than the French Alps I had flown over a few days earlier!
Go figure.
It turns out the Atlas Mountains separate the rest of Morocco
from the Sahara, which kind of made me want to see them from
the other side.
Marrakech itself was fascinating. A beautiful city, with modern,
pink buildings because of the color stone there, and it’s in the
midst of a construction boom. Ali, my terrific driver/guide (the
best I’ve had), said it’s all 95% tourism related and I can see
why. There is even a casino here, plus they are building a new
27-hole golf complex. Yes, Morocco is a Muslim country, but it
has found a way to tolerate other conventions. Most of us wish
this were the case all over the Middle East.
I’m saving a few tidbits about the city and the famous square for
another column I write, but suffice it to say I wish I had used this
place as my base rather than Casablanca.
One little item I found interesting. Once you get about 20 miles
outside Casablanca, the main road is just two lanes, which is why
it takes so long because you are constantly stuck behind trucks.
You’re also on occasion sharing the road with a peasant and their
donkey. Boy, I have a far greater appreciation for these stalwart
creatures than I did before. I mean to tell you, some of these
donkeys leading a cart could motor. And as I shared some
laughs with Ali, yes, it’s a universal truth; donkeys also never
complain, as compared to NBA ballplayers, for example.
But perhaps the strangest site was to see a peasant, astride a
donkey, dressed in a Georgetown Hoyas basketball jersey. Then
again, upon reflection, maybe it’s true that most of the actual
Hoyas from the John Thompson era not only didn’t graduate, this
was the best they could do when their playing careers were over.
[And here come the e-mails from Georgetown alum…..]
As for how I ended up in Morocco, after posting last week’s
column I was on pins and needles as to whether or not I’d even
get my passport back from this certain consulate in Washington
that had agreed to express it for Sat. delivery, after two days
earlier telling me it had been lost. Well even FedEx screwed this
one up, but luckily their office was open late Sat. as I was forced
to pick it up myself when they stupidly rang the wrong doorbell.
So then it was, ‘Where do I go from Paris?’ Since I had a lot of
money already tied up in the trip I was going somewhere. Why
Casablanca? To tell you the truth, I can’t really remember just
how I settled on this destination. All I know is that when I
reached my decision, I had my new arrangements within about
30 minutes, thanks to Al Gore, inventor of the Internet, and a
very accommodating Air France.
And not for nothing, but this week marks eight years of
StocksandNews. At least two more to go, then I begin to…well,
can’t give away all my secrets, you understand.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $673
Oil, $59.35
Returns for the week 2/12-2/16
Dow Jones +1.5% [12767]
S&P 500 +1.2% [1455]
S&P MidCap +1.6%
Russell 2000 +1.4%
Nasdaq +1.5% [2496]
Returns for the period 1/1/07-2/16/07
Dow Jones +2.4%
S&P 500 +2.6%
S&P MidCap +6.8%
Russell 2000 +3.9%
Nasdaq +3.4%
Bulls 51.1
Bears 21.1 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
