[For the record, posted at 7 a.m.]
“We”ve had a good run. Enjoy it while it lasts because you can
not always expect it to be as good as it”s been.”
–Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George, 12/28.
Sir Edward issued this statement to the British people as part of a
talk about their own economy. And he importantly went on to
say that a worse-than-expected downturn in the U.S. could have a
seriously adverse effect in Britain.
Of course, I couldn”t agree more and I would add to George”s
list; France, Germany, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, Taiwan,
China, South Korea, Egypt, Chad…you get the picture.
More on the economy later. But as we wrap up a wickedly
spectacular year 2000, let me start by reiterating that, as far as
our own financial markets are concerned, what we witnessed was
a Crash; not a correction, not a bear market…a Crash. But, don”t
worry, you won”t see another like it again in your lifetime.
I have been insistent on using this term, while others refuse
to do so, even though I admit the naysayers have some decent,
standard arguments; namely that the Dow and the S&P 500 never
officially hit the “bear” mark of minus 20% from an index high, let
alone something worse.
As a matter of fact, to digress a bit, Floyd Norris of the New
York Times had an interesting piece (12/29) to buttress this latter
argument. To wit:
Using the S&P 500, in 1999, 241 issues finished up, 256 fell; yet
the index rose 21% (total return). In 2000, as of Thursday, 276
were up, with only 218 down (and the index finished off 9%).
So it was hardly a bear market, Norris argues.
O.K. Point taken. But the bigger issue during 2000 was where
was everyone”s money going? It went into the high-flying tech
stocks, that”s where, because it”s a simple fact of the markets that
money chases performance, whether it”s individual stocks or
mutual funds. And, particularly for the period mid-October of 1999
through March 10, 2000, the aggressive stock and fund train sped
along, drawing increasing amounts of passengers as the Nasdaq
soared ever higher until…
…well, it was kind of like the roadrunner cartoon, when the
coyote finds himself suspended in mid-air, looking down at the
canyon floor with nothing to grab onto. Zoooommm…splat!
Folks, two-thirds of the daily volume in U.S. equity markets was
in the Nasdaq. That”s all you need to know. You can talk until
you”re blue in the face about more stocks being up than down,
that”s all well and good. But the actual cash flows were largely in
a sector that finished the year 50% from its all-time high. If that”s
not a Crash, I”d hate to see a real one.
So now what? Things happen so fast these days, whether it”s a
change in consumer sentiment, rising (and plunging) oil, or a
stock that goes from $17 to $127 to $36, all in the space of a year
(Rambus).
What we do know is the following. The economy continues to
slow, witness the ongoing decline in the “leading indicators,” the
collapse of Bradlees and Montgomery Ward within two days
(affecting 40,000 workers), the bankruptcy of steel giant LTV,
job cuts at Union Pacific, mediocre (at best) holiday sales, and
indications of a broad-based slowdown in corporate spending on
all manner of technology products…just for starters.
Then tack on the fact that we simply have too much debt, both of
a corporate and individual nature, and it”s no wonder that the all-
important consumer sentiment figures continue to fall
precipitously.
Which means that we”re not close to a bottom in the economy.
Actually, no one really has a clue where we”re headed, but they”ll
say they do, spouting statements like “Once the Fed starts lowering
interest rates again, we”re off to the races.” Salve the wounds?
Limit any further damage? Probably. Off to the races? I don”t
think so, and that”s just my educated opinion.
You see, Wall Street”s analysts, despite lowering their earnings
forecasts for the immediate future, have barely touched their
company specific prognostications for the full year ahead. It only
follows, then, that more disappointment awaits.
But in summing up, overall, I see a classic muddle through
environment in 2001, with the Dow and S&P finishing the year no
more than 5% from current levels and the Nasdaq maybe tacking
on a few hundred points. In other words, a far cry from the days
of last spring when yours truly was screaming for a Nasdaq
Crash.
Investors received their wake-up call in 2000. Gone are the days
when a leading Wall Street strategist could title a research report,
“There are no high P/E Growth Stocks.” Gone are the days when
investors see 20-30% returns as their constitutional birthright.
And gone are the days when technology in general is viewed as a
panacea for all of our problems. The Great Tech Bubble is
officially history. One year into a new century and an author
could already fill 3 or 4 volumes.
STATS PLUS
Nasdaq
–2000”s drop of 39% represents the biggest yearly decline for a
major U.S. stock index since 1931 (S&P lost 47% that year).
–The 4th quarter of ”99 saw the Nasdaq register a 48% gain. The
4th quarter of ”00 saw the Nasdaq drop 33%.
–Nasdaq has not had two weekly gains in a row since a 5-week
streak ending 9/1.
–Since 9/1, the Nasdaq has dropped 42%! That, my friends, is
the real Nasdaq Crash of 2000…but you won”t find this anywhere
else. [During this same period, the Dow fell just 4%, the
S&P 500 lost 13%.]
–At its 12/31 closing level of 2470, Nasdaq is 51% from its all-
time high peak of 5048 set on 3/10.
–Nasdaq had 23 weeks this year where it was ”+” or ”-” 5%. The
Dow had just 4…and none since the week ending 4/21.
–Nasdaq lost 25.3% for the week ending 4/14, and gained 19%
in the week ending 6/2.
–Nasdaq Telecom Index lost 54% for the year.
Expectations?
Returns for the following decades:
80s – Dow +228%, Nasdaq +200%
90s – Dow +318%, Nasdaq +796%
60s – Dow +17% [679-800]
70s – Dow +4.8% [800-838]
Since market bottom of 10/11/90
Dow Jones +356%
S&P 500 +347%
Nasdaq +660%
Since 12/31/98
Dow Jones +17.5%
S&P 500 +7.4%
Nasdaq +12.7% (was it worth it?)
Cash +10.5% (approximately)
Since 3/10/00 [When the Nasdaq peaked at 5048]
Dow Jones +8.6%
S&P 500 -5.3%
Nasdaq -51.1%
Since 6/30/99 [The day Federal Reserve first raised interest rates]
Dow Jones -1.7%
S&P 500 -3.8%
Nasdaq -7.8%
*Wildest day of the year (and history)…4/3, Dow +2.8%,
Nasdaq -7.6%.
International Major Indexes (local currency)
Tokyo, -27%
London, -10%
Frankfurt, -7.5%
Sydney, unchanged! Walt-zing Ma-til-da!
South Korea -51%, Taiwan -44%, Thailand -44%…again, all in
local currencies.
U.S. Treasuries
12/31/99
2-yr. 6.24%
10-yr. 6.43%
2/18/00
2-yr. 6.63%
10-yr. 6.49%
12/29/00
2-yr. 5.09%
10-yr. 5.11%
Clip and Save! [Updated at noon, 12/30, to reflect 12/29
closing prices.]
For the history books…date of all-time high, high, 52-week low,
12/29 close. [If you have any trouble with the stock symbols, you
can look them up on one of my finance links.]
AOL 1/3/00 $83 $34 $35
T (AT&T) 3/29/00 61 16 17
AAPL 3/23/00 75 14 15
AMZN 12/9/99 113 15 15
CSCO 3/27/00 82 35 38
CMGI 1/3/00 163 5 6
CIEN 10/20/00 151 23 82*
DELL 3/22/00 60 16 17
EMC 9/25/00 105 47 67
eBay 3/27/00 127 27 33
GLW (Corning) 8/30/00 113 34 53*
INTC 8/28/00 76 30 30
JDSU 3/7/00 153 37 42
JNPR 10/16/00 245 49 126*
LU 12/29/99 74 12 13
MSFT 12/30/99 120 40 43
NT 7/25/00 89 30 32
ORCL 9/1/00 46 21 29
RMBS 6/23/00 127 17 36*
SUNW 9/1/00 65 25 28
YHOO 1/4/00 250 25 30
*Those marked with an asterisk saw their lows in December ”99
or January ”00. All of the rest registered their lows in 12/00.
Street Bytes
–The first week in January can be particularly volatile. For
example, last year the S&P 500 fell 4% on Tuesday, Jan.4, and
rose 3% that Friday. This year”s highly important 4th quarter
earnings releases will begin to hit by week”s end and we will be
on “Fed watch” non-stop until they meet January 30-31, though
they could act sooner.
–John Harris, a Tulsa University professor, wrote an extensive
piece in Barron”s (12/25) on the impact of January”s market
performance on the rest of the year. Harris took apart trite
theories like “As January goes, so goes the rest of the year.” It
should really be, “How the market performs in January points to
the direction for the remaining 11 months.” What”s the
difference? Well, if the market was up 3% in January, but
finished the year up only 2%, that shoots the popular theory
down.
Harris goes on to show that since 1940, in 46 of the 61 years,
January pointed the direction for February – December
(employing the S&P 500), including the last 6 years.
And, perhaps most importantly for statistics junkies, there have
been 7 years since 1940 where a new presidential term was
beginning and January was down. In all 7 cases the market was
also down for the February – December period.
–For the record, analysts are anticipating that earnings on the
S&P 500 will still grow 7-8% in 2001. Fat chance.
–Holiday sales were generally up 2-3% from year ago levels.
True, not a disaster, but certainly below expectations…and that”s
the name of the game these days. Some sectors, such as jewelry
(-3%) and electronics (-6%), aren”t feeling too jolly about now.
–Quality bonds significantly outperformed all major stock indexes
in 2000.
–Chairman William Bricker of LTV, commenting on the state of
the steel industry with the bankruptcy of his company.
“America is in danger of becoming as dependent on foreign steel
as we are on foreign oil. How many more U.S. steel companies
must be driven into bankruptcy before the government acts?”
Illegal, low cost imports (particularly from Russia and Japan)
have crushed the industry. Which means one thing. A cry for
protectionism…and trade wars. Not a good thing.
–Financier George Soros had a bad week. Last Saturday, two
news items hit the wire. First, it was announced he will stand trial
in France for a 10-year-old insider-trading case. Second,
Outboard Marine filed for Chapter 11, 3 years after Soros led a
leveraged-buyout of the company. [And a company like
Outboard Marine, which specializes in boat-building, going under
can”t speak well of the state of our economy.]
–Most timely article of 2000, Professor Jeremy Siegel”s op-ed
piece in the Wall Street Journal, 3/14, titled, “Big-Cap Tech
Stocks Are a Sucker Bet.” Yes, that was two business days after
the Nasdaq peaked. Brilliant, professor.
–The spread on junk bonds over Treasuries is now in excess of
8.5% versus just 4.5% one year ago. This translates into rising
defaults, globally, in 2001.
But none other than Warren Buffett has been snapping up junk,
including the shares in companies whose fortunes have been
tainted by their legal exposure to asbestos claims.
–You will hear lots of talk about the potential in emerging
markets, especially after such a horrid year. Stay away. There
are far too many variables for this guy. Yes, from time to time
you miss a year in which a certain country or fund runs up 60-
80%. But then there are those years when it reverses. Here”s all
you need to know. The average emerging markets mutual fund
has an annualized return over the past five years of minus 2%. A
short-term bond fund would have returned 5.5% over the same
period. [Source: Lipper]
–Speaking of mutual funds, as a follow-up to my discussion of a
few weeks ago wherein I said the money will start to cascade out
of technology and aggressive growth vehicles, check out these
figures.
In going through my pile of stats, I saw where at the end of the
3rd quarter the one-year return on the average tech mutual fund
was +70%. You have to recall that this meant you caught the
great runup for the 4th quarter of ”99 through 3/10/00…and then
held onto a ton of the gains.
Well, the picture has changed considerably since then. For the
new one-year period ending 12/28/00, the average tech fund is off
30%. Up 70 to down 30. That”s what investors will face when
they receive their year-end statements.
Now a contrarian may say, hey, it may be time to buy more, or, it
can”t get worse! But the mass public doesn”t think this way…or
they wouldn”t be called contrarians, would they? [I think I just
confused myself.] No, they tend to sell. And when they sell
(redeem), this means the mutual fund manager has to sell (unless
they have enough buyers to match the sellers…or a large cash
position).
Bottom line, it”s just something else to factor in before one
aggressively goes back into the technology sector.
–Energy: The next OPEC meeting is just around the corner,
January 17 in Vienna. Venezuela has climbed on board the “cut
production” train. And our “near normal” winter continues to do
a number on home heating costs throughout much of the country.
We need a national energy policy, yesterday.
As for California, as Energy Secretary Bill Richardson admits,
“Oh, I really don”t like to mess with a free market economy” but,
thanks to the stupidity of California”s elected officials over the
years, they find themselves begging for federal government
emergency directives mandating that states like Washington and
Oregon bail California out of its energy mess. If I lived in
Washington, I”d be fuming. They have their own shortfalls to
deal with.
–Online holiday shopping may have risen about 55% this year
over last. While this sounds good, it”s not. For a nascent, life-
changing industry…ahem, you”d expect 100%-plus growth for
years to come.
Separately, Amazon.com announced that it shipped more than
99% of its orders in time for the holidays. Now I recognize that
people swear by Amazon, and I was satisfied in my one shopping
experience with them, but this statement of theirs is a bunch of
bull. Yeah, so what? Anyone can make that claim. Set a
deadline and say everything went out!
Alas, what it means to this scribe is that they are so desperate to
pump the stock up that they”ll say anything to paint a positive
picture. The fact is, however, they can”t survive without the
capital markets providing them with more funds in 2001.
–Since 1948, a rise of more than 0.3% in the unemployment
rate”s 3-month moving average has been followed within one year
by a recession. We”ll watch this one closely.
–Among the many casualties of the week was the web site,
Quepasa.com. Now these guys simply didn”t follow my advice of
last spring, that being to make Elian Gonzalez their spokesperson.
They did announce, however, that in shutting their operations,
they were selling off the furniture and equipment. You may want
to check the garage sale listings in your local paper.
–Believe it or not, I”m excited about the prospects for some
individual stocks in 2001, maybe even some tech issues…but I”m
not wading in just yet. [I currently remain 60% cash, 40% energy.]
–**Finally, I have launched a series on the Great Tech Bubble on
my Wall Street History link. Market junkies will want to print
and save.
International News
Middle East: President Clinton”s search for a legacy (“It”s got to
be here somewhere!”) looks increasingly less likely as the latest
peace initiative has once again evaporated in a ball of flames.
Before Thursday”s bomb blasts in Tel Aviv and Gaza, Israel”s
opposition forces were furious at Prime Minister Barak for the
concessions he was prepared to give the PLO.
China / Taiwan: A former military intelligence chief became the
latest victim of the ongoing corruption scandal in China.
Interestingly, General Ji, who was sentenced to 15 years, is a
figure from the Democrat”s fund-raising scandals in this country.
Separately, a leading businessman was sentenced to death for
corruption. But the Chinese people, while appreciative that their
government is cracking down on illicit behavior, must be
wondering, just how high up does all of this go?
Meanwhile, in Taiwan, Vice President Annette Lu, a staunch pro-
independence figure, denounced Chinese state media “as the scum
of the nation” during a speech in which she defended the Falun
Gong movement. Rather harsh, Ms. Lu. Keep it up and you
could be 2001”s “Week in Review: Person of the Year.”
Japan: It”s time to talk a little agriculture. Many of you have
undoubtedly heard about the issue of genetically modified
StarLink corn, which isn”t fit for human consumption. Well,
there are concerns abroad that some of this has found its way into
shipments to nation”s like Japan.
For its part, Japan is now increasingly turning to other sources
(like Argentina, China, and South Africa) since they don”t want to
just take our word that the corn we send them is StarLink free.
The U.S. represents 71% of total world corn exports. [Source:
High Plains Journal…thank you, Gene.] You can thus see where
this is headed. What if an environmental group in Japan (or
elsewhere) finds StarLink in a shipment? The U.S. would be
dead.
Separately, Japan wrapped up another abysmal year as far as its
economy is concerned. And the latest figures show a rise in
unemployment and a decline in household spending. Plus,
Bloomberg reports that golf club membership fees, a big
economic indicator in a land with little open space, continue to
plummet; down another 30% in 2000.
Russia: Remember that secret deal that Vice President Gore cut
with the Russkies back in 1995, the one that was to limit arms
transfers by the Russians to Iran? Well, this week Russia and Iran
announced a broad range of agreements that will strengthen
military and security ties between the two. Both Iran and Russia
blasted the U.S. for interfering in their internal affairs.
And it wasn”t a good week for Russia”s space program. First,
they lost contact with the Mir space station, meaning it”s
increasingly likely that the craft will crash land in February.
[Check your falling satellite insurance.] Then, two days later, a
rocket containing six smaller satellites (for both military and
civilian use) exploded.
Lastly, an interesting poll was published in Russia. 1,500 were
asked to pick their “Man of the Century.” Lenin was #1 and
Stalin #2 (but, thankfully, with ”just” 14 and 9 percent,
respectively). Andrei Sakharov, however, was 3rd (good) and
Yuri Gagarin, the first man in space, was 4th. I give the people
credit for their enlightened picks of the latter two. My guess is
that less than 5% of Americans now know of our own 3
“pioneering” astronauts; Alan Sheperd, John Glenn, and Neil
Armstrong.
Serbia: So, post-elections, we now have a rather unwieldy 18-
party governing coalition in Yugoslavia (including Montenegro).
Milosevic”s Socialists did gain a substantial number of seats in the
new parliament.
But the big story at the moment is the severe energy crunch that
the nation faces (as first discussed in this space months ago).
Belgrade has been dark for hours on end as the government
rations what little capacity it has. The economy is grinding to a
halt.
NATO has to figure out something, pronto, or the country will be
plunged into anarchy.
Germany: Chancellor Schroeder stated in a public forum this
week that his nation needs more immigrants, not less. It was a
gutsy comment, especially considering that 2 in 3 Germans want
fewer foreigners.
Yes, as your editor has written for over a year now, old wounds
continue to reemerge across Europe. Should the continent fall
into recession, I fear the worst.
What the majority of Europeans fail to understand is that they
desperately need immigrants to support their overly generous
social welfare system. The population is aging rapidly, while at
the same time there is a dearth of newborns.
Of course, when you”re an East German laborer, already living in
a city with 20% unemployment (as is the case in much of the
former East German nation), and the economy tanks, you aren”t
going to be happy competing with a Romanian who just moved in
for work.
North Korea: President Clinton will not take a field trip here after
all, leaving it to the Bush administration to ascertain whether any
verifiable arms agreements can be reached.
Indonesia: 15 died in separate bomb blasts directed against
Christians on Christmas Day. May those responsible rot in hell.
Philippines: Resignation in the face of impeachment charges looks
increasingly likely for President Estrada. And I never got to
attend one of his parties. Drat!
Random Musings
Progress?
The following excerpts are from an essay by Phillip J. Longman in
the 12/25-1/1 issue of U.S. News titled, “The Slowing Pace of
Progress.”
“Though automobiles now contain microchips and some can talk
to you, in most parts of the country it actually takes longer to
drive from point A to point B than it did 30 years ago, because of
worsening congestion. Over the past 15 years, while the
population of major urban areas rose by 22%, time spent in traffic
jams soared by 235%.”
And to the issue of modern medicine dramatically expanding our
life expectancy, while one stands a better chance of surviving a
heart attack than, say, 50 years ago, most of the gains, says
Longman, “resulted far less from medical advances such as
penicillin than from improved nutrition, housing, sanitation, and
the increase in average living standards.”
“There is a distinction to be made between inventions that are
merely sophisticated ( a la personal digital assistants) and those
that fundamentally alter the human condition.”
Mr. Longman sums up perfectly my feelings about technology.
Our current “revolution” is far from an actual one. Oh well, this
will be an ongoing discussion for 2001.
But, for now, I leave you with this. It has been 28 years since
man left earth”s orbit. What the hell are we doing?
We must commit to sending a man to Mars. After all, we better
start thinking about colonizing somewhere, before we destroy
ourselves. That”s seems pretty logical to me.
–Following is an example of why Jimmy Carter was a truly awful
president. This is the lead of an editorial Carter wrote for
Friday”s New York Times, concerning the preservation of the
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, as opposed to opening
up a small portion for drilling.
“Rosalynn and I always look for opportunities to visit parks and
wildlife areas in our travels. But nothing matches the spectacle of
wildlife we found on the coastal plain of America”s Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. To the north lay The Arctic
Ocean; to the south, rolling foothills rose toward the glaciated
peaks of The Brooks Range…
“As we watched, 80,000 caribou surged across the vast expense
around us…”
Oh, geezuz, shut up! I discussed this issue months ago. Mr.
President, less than .001% of Americans will have the opportunity
to see all of this in their lifetime…and there are plenty of other
wild places to visit in Alaska. Instead of bundling up in sweaters,
think about the poor folks in America who will continue to suffer
from energy shocks unless we get a handle on our dependence on
foreign oil. The friggin” caribou will survive! Start drilling!
–A federal court judge has ruled that Timothy McVeigh can drop
all of his appeals, thus allowing the government to set an
execution date. Which also means that the next administration
may be responsible for this. There are some who now feel that
McVeigh is just jerking us all around, that he intends to play
games with the judicial system after a date has been established.
Unfortunately, I agree.
–So the new census reveals that there are 281 million of us,
versus 249 million back in 1990. But what”s really important is
that because of the population shift south and west, Democratic
states like New York and Pennsylvania will lose 2 congressional
seats apiece, while a few Republican strongholds, like Texas, will
pick up 2.
–George W.”s selection of Donald Rumsfeld to be the new
secretary of defense was terrific. Wow. Powell, Rice, Rumsfeld,
and Cheney. Heft, gravitas, and humility. The challenges this
team will face are immense, but we can rest assured we are in the
best of hands.
–The White House released the latest budget surplus forecasts
for the 10-year period beginning 10/1/01. It”s up to $5 trillion…
$2 trillion if you take out existing obligations for Social Security,
Medicare, and debt reduction. Which means one thing…TAX
CUT!! Folks, if we don”t get it now, we never will.
–And now, the “StocksandNews Dirtball of the Year Award.”
As I stare at the world map, always a stimulating experience, I
can come up with one who stands head and shoulders above the
rest, Zimbabwe”s President Robert Mugabe.
Through his virulent racism, particularly as it pertains to his
bloody policy of forcibly removing whites from their long-held
farms, Mugabe has single-handedly buried his nation”s economy
and thus sentenced his people to a poverty which no human
should be forced to endure. May God send a plague of locusts to
his palace.
–Mount Popo in Mexico was relatively quiet this week. I didn”t
realize that my friend Harry K. in Toronto was such a
volcanologist. He”s watching Mount Shasta in California for all
of us. And together, we also await the next earthquake in Tokyo.
Why? Already bankrupt property and casualty insurance
companies in Japan would be forced to sell their U.S. Treasuries
to pay claims. Not a good thing for U.S. markets.
–The U.S. and Japan have formally agreed to forgive loans to 22
of the world”s poorest countries, a goal of U2”s Bono. So
congratulations to a superstar who actually has a brain…and his
group”s new album is good as well.
On a related issue, U.N. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke
deserves credit for gaining a reduction in the U.S. share of the
U.N. budget from 25 to 22%, as well as a reduction in
peacekeeping costs from 31 to 27%. They say that Holbrooke is
such a royal pain to deal with that people give him what he wants,
just to get rid of him.
–Newt Gingrich is one interesting dude. He is all over the
airwaves these days as he desperately strives to become a player
again. There has never been any doubt about his talent, just his
judgment.
So he”s on “Meet the Press” last week where, to make sure he
remains on everyone”s ”A” list, he tells us that Al Gore”s
concession speech will be read by people around the world for
decades to come. Barf. But then, true to form, he later states
what has been one of my pet peeves about the Clinton
administration, that being America”s cocky behavior. “We can”t
go around publicly lecturing everyone,” said Newt. Yes, one of
the things I like about George W. is the fact that he seems to “get
it.” We need to lead with humility.
–The average home price in Westchester County, N.Y. (a suburb
of New York City) rose 28% last year to $529,000.
–My father and I were commenting at Christmas on what a
“dark” comic strip “Funky Winkerbean” has become. Geezuz,
it”s depressing.
–The Library of Congress announced another 25 films that it was
committed to preserving for all eternity. #1 on this new list was
“Apocalypse Now.” I hope they just mean the first half of this
flick.
–In looking back at 2000, yes, I made one huge mistake. I
thought the Y2K issue was a serious one. But what did it cost
those of us who were a little concerned? After all, I drank the
water, used the paper products, and quaffed the ale. We”re all
none the worse for wear for taking a little extra precaution. Now,
about those flashlights…
–From Harper”s Magazine, the # of endangered tortoises that
U.S. customs agents discovered in a man”s trousers last
December in Miami…55.
–Lastly, I”m somewhat wimping out on my selection for “Week
in Review: Person of the Year.” Actually, no one stands out as
doing a world of good. So I hereby give the award to the entire
nation of Australia, those delightful, plucky chaps who put on a
terrific Olympics…even if no one bothered to watch them.
Gold closed at $272 [$289 – 12/31/99]
Oil, $26.80 [$25.60 – 12/31/99]
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 5.36% 2-yr. 5.09% 10-yr. 5.11% 30-yr. 5.46%
Returns for the week, 12/26-12/29
Dow Jones +1.4% [10788….11497 on 12/31/99]
S&P 500 +1.1% [1320….1469 on 12/31/99]
S&P MidCap +3.1%
Russell 2000 +4.4%
Nasdaq -1.8% [2470….4069 on 12/31/99]
Returns for 2000
Dow Jones -6.2%
S&P 500 -10.1% [Total return approx. -9.0%]
S&P MidCap +16.2% [No crash here!]
Russell 2000 -4.2%
Nasdaq -39.3%
Bulls 51.4% [55.0% – 12/31/99]
Bears 36.2% [27.0% – 12/31/99] [Source: Investors
Intelligence]
Notes:
Due to the holiday, there will be no Bar Chat on Monday.
*I will be posting our “Pick the Dow” contest winner around
noon on January 3 as part of the Bar Chat for that day.
Happy New Year! May the markets perform a wee bit better in
2001.
Brian Trumbore
