Personally, what upset me most about 2001 was the fact that,
once again, I didn”t get out to golf nearly as much as I wanted
to……
……What?! Oh, geezuz. It”s only January 6th?! Well then,
forget that last comment. But man, what a week, huh?
I wrote the following on December 30, obviously not knowing
what was about to hit us, with regards to my economic and
market forecasts for the coming year.
“Actually, no one really has a clue where we”re headed, but
they”ll say they do, spouting statements like ”Once the Fed starts
lowering interest rates again, we”re off to the races.” Salve the
wounds? Limit any further damage? Probably. Off to the races?
I don”t think so, and that”s just my educated opinion.”
So what did hit us? Or rather, who hit Fed Chairman Alan
Greenspan with a 2 X 4 and woke him up out of his stupor?
You know, it”s no secret that you slow down, both physically
and mentally, as you age. And Alan Greenspan is no spring
chicken. He turns 75 in March, after all. And my hero, Ronald
Reagan, turned 75 in 1986, which is about when most objective
analysts would agree he was slowing down himself (though
Reagan”s body also had to deal with the shock of an
assassination attempt).
Anyway, here is some of what Greenspan faces today. Plummeting
consumer confidence (due in no small part to the disastrous equity
performance of 2000), awful retail sales, plunging auto sales,
tightening credit (as a result of a banking system that had
heretofore lent money like a drunken sailor), soaring personal debt
levels, a recession in manufacturing (with a U.S. steel industry on
the verge of total collapse), incredible overcapacity in some
technology sectors, a shaky dollar, and, last but not least, a
rapidly deteriorating corporate profit picture.
And, again, despite what some experts may say, no one really
knows where we”re headed because we haven”t been here
before! We haven”t had to deal with a New Economy slowdown
like this one. And we haven”t had to unwind the kind of
speculative excesses we saw in the 90s and early 2000 since the
Crash of 1929.
So what was Greenspan doing all fall as the warning signs
poured in from one precinct after another? Sitting in his favorite
bathtub. Zip-pa-dee-do-da!
I imagine his wife, NBC”s Andrea Mitchell, who still has all of
her faculties, kept knocking on the bathroom door.
“Alan, you better get out. You”re needed.”
“Ah, who needs me, Andrea?”
“The freakin” world economy, meathead! Now get out of the
tub and get to work!”
Well, finally on Wednesday, Greenspan was dragged to a
conference call and, having seen an awful manufacturing report
on Tuesday (which showed it plummeting to levels not seen in
10 years), Alan and the Fed (actually, a good garage-band name)
lowered the key short-term interest rate one-half percent. And
you”d have thought that all the world”s leaders had shaken
hands and declared, “World peace, brother!” for there was a rally
the likes of which, in the case of the Nasdaq, had never been
seen before and, quite possibly, will not be seen again for quite
some time. The Dow soared 300 points and the Nasdaq 325,
with the latter”s point gain equating to 14%!
When the closing bell rung on Wednesday, I glanced at the final
numbers and had a revelation.
The Dow closed at 10945, Nasdaq 2616. On June 30, 1999, the
Dow closed at 10970, Nasdaq 2680.
The significance of 6/30/99 is that this was the day the Federal
Reserve first raised interest rates in an effort to slow down an
economy that was exhibiting zero signs of inflation (fighting
inflation supposedly being the Fed”s raison d”etre).
Now, here we are, after 6 rate increases and the first decrease in
the cycle, right back where we started from, albeit only for those
who were stranded on a desert island for 18 months, thus
avoiding all of the pain in between.
Well, that was as of Wednesday, way back about, oh, 3 days
ago. After a relative market breather on Thursday, and after
enduring two days of drivel about the markets being back off to
the races, the markets collapsed anew on Friday under the
weight of a myriad of credit concerns; ranging from rumors over
Bank of America”s derivatives situation, to the exposure of some
U.S. banks to California”s collapsing energy picture, to Russia”s
default on a $1.3 billion payment, to continuing problems in
Japan (the Land of the Setting Sun).
The Dow finally ended the week at 10662, off 1.2% on the
week. Nasdaq fell back to 2407, down 2.5%.
After all of that euphoria, we finished down. Now that”s
depressing.
The Fed had issued a statement Wednesday which read in part:
“These actions were taken in light of further weakening of sales
and production, and in the context of lower consumer
confidence, tight conditions in some segments of financial
markets, and high energy prices sapping household and business
purchasing power.” They then added that “inflation pressures
remain contained.”
Brilliant, sneered the editor. Only we all knew the Fed should
have started acting months ago. And furthermore, inflation
hasn”t been a problem in years.
So now what? The equity markets are going to be all over the
place but the Fed, which will clearly have to aggressively loosen
up again, soon, should still be able to limit the downside (he
wrote with fingers and toes crossed).
But it bears repeating; we”ve never been here before. I see no
way that investor or consumer confidence will turn on a dime.
And when the layoffs begin to shift from the manufacturing to
service sector, as they invariably will, it”s going to get a little
scary.
Some final thoughts. I have mentioned before that my main
concern was always the global economy, more than the U.S.
Months ago I wrote that Greenspan had to act to save the world.
If he”s too late, that is his final legacy.
Secondly, watch the mutual fund redemption figures. I
explained in the past how it will all unfold. This week it started
to in earnest. Investors are giving up on their once hot funds.
Selling begets selling in those affected sectors.
And to President-elect Bush, you acted quickly in forming a
solid cabinet. Start thinking about using your powers of
persuasion on Alan Greenspan. It”s time for him to go.
Street Bytes
–Bonds: The short end of the Treasury yield curve went
absolutely ballistic with the Fed”s announcement they were
aggressively cutting rates. Recall that last week the one-year
Treasury note had a yield of 5.36%. By the end of this week,
that had dropped to 4.64%! Stupendous. And regarding the
long end of the curve, Treasuries were also helped by a flight to
quality as the equity markets crashed and burned on Friday.
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 4.64% 2-yr. 4.56% 10-yr. 4.93% 30-yr. 5.40%
–I listed a few market forecasts for 2001 on 12/23. Here are
some others:
Richard Bernstein / Merrill Lynch: Correctly bearish in 2000,
now sees Dow 11000 by 12/31; earnings growth in the S&P 500
of just 0-5%.
Ed Kerschner / UBS Warburg (PaineWebber): S&P 500 1715.
[S&P is currently at 1298, closed 2000 at 1320.]
Abby Cohen / Goldman Sachs: Dow 13000, S&P 1650; S&P
earnings growth of 7-8%.
Doug Cliggott / JP Morgan Chase: One of the best in 2000, now
sees Dow 11000; S&P earnings growth…0%.
–Also on 12/23, I noted that Business Week”s consensus
economic forecast had GDP growth in 2001 of 3.1% with a
2.5% CPI. This week the Wall Street Journal released their
semi-annual survey of 54 economists and it had GDP pegged at
2.5%. [Q1 / 2.0%, Q2 / 2.1%, Q3 / 2.8%, Q4 / 2.9%] They
also had CPI at 2.8%.
Well, the two I personally pay particular attention to are the
venerable Ed Hyman of ISI, and PIMCO (represented in the
survey by Paul McCulley).
Hyman sees GDP for 2000 this way, Q1-Q4…2.0,1.0,1.0,2.0
McCulley…1.5,1.0,2.0,2.5
No, those aren”t recession numbers…but they do represent a
“growth recession,” meaning that profit growth will be so
miniscule, compared to the robust figures of the past few years,
that it will certainly feel like a recession.
–I was thinking of an old friend of mine who manages a major
technology fund this past Tuesday. His portfolio lost 10% the
first day of the year. Wednesday morning, I was talking to
another friend in the business and we discussed how depressing
it must be to start the year 10% in the hole. Well, on
Wednesday, my friend was up 15%!
Yes, what a start to 2001. The average technology fund
(where gobs of hot money still resides…though it”s beginning to
cascade out) was down 9%, and then soared 14% on Wednesday.
And also on Wednesday, the day of the rate cut, following are
some of the more spectacular price ranges…just for that one
day.
Cisco ($32-$42), Corning (45-57), eBay (30-39), EMC (53-68),
IBM (84-95), JDS Uniphase (38-54), Juniper (97-136).
All of the above fell back significantly, once again, on Friday.
You have to have an iron stomach to take this kind of volatility.
–“A Sign of the Times” (Petula Clark): I told you eons ago that
online advertising was a total bust, well ahead of anyone else.
So it came as no surprise when I read on Friday that Engage
Inc., said it would reduce its workforce by half (slashing 550
jobs), primarily because of their exposure to Net advertising,
“and by bad debts from dot-com companies unable to pay their
bills.” [Wall Street Journal]
And it”s not just online advertising that”s suffering. Advertising
of all stripes is, witness the demise of “George” magazine
(founded by JFK Jr.). I also received a postcard during the week
notifying me that my subscription to Web Guide was being
picked up by Yahoo! Internet Life. It seems that Web Guide
ceased publication. [Ironically, I had just canceled my own
Yahoo! subscription].
But wait, there”s more! EToys basically died this week, at the
tender age of 2, as it laid off 70% of its remaining employees.
Shares in eToys are now less than the cost of a Cracker Jacks
trinket.
And you”ve undoubtedly seen those commercials for the
ecommerce site Mercata.com. Well, they are shutting down
their operations. And then there was Rupert Murdoch”s News
Corp. (Fox News) which announced they were drastically
reducing their various Web operations.
[As for us, StocksandNews just reordered more envelopes and
business cards….yeah, ba-bee!!]
Finally, 22% of those who shopped online in ”99, failed to do so
in 2000. And, amazingly, only two online retailers have share
prices in the double digits, eBay and Amazon. Regarding the
latter, it may be just a matter of weeks before it slips into single
figures.
Did I say “finally?” One more. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter”s
Net diva Mary Meeker has been one of the great shills in the
industry. So last week a MSDW spokesperson was forced to
defend the indefensible. Meeker”s picks, we were told, were
made for the long-term. What, 2075?!
–Of course, Meeker isn”t alone. According to Zacks and
Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times, only 29 of 8,000
possible recommendations on S&P 500 stocks are currently
labeled “Sell.”
–Energy: It is said by some that George W. Bush”s primary
concern right now is an energy crisis in this country. But it”s
tough to ignore the daily price swings in crude, heating oil, and
natural gas and stay focused on the big picture. The action the
past few months simply epitomizes that of a casino. Traders
who once focused on inventory numbers now salivate with each
little “Alberta Clipper” and temperature oscillation of two
degrees.
Of course, some of this behavior is unavoidable but it also helps
prevent our policy makers from COMMENCING DRILLING!
And it”s not too soon to begin thinking about 2002. The
National Weather Service just released a report showing that the
November-December period was the coldest in our nation”s
history. Right now, the supply picture is so screwed up, we
could have an outright catastrophe next year, and you can be
sure that the amount of hoarding taking place next summer, in
preparation for the winter of 2001-2002 will be tremendous.
Meanwhile, back to the present, Saudi Arabia announced they
will back production cuts at the coming OPEC meeting on
January 17, obviously helping to put a floor under current prices.
–Telecom spending: 3 national providers of DSL service –
Northpoint, Rhythms Net Connections, and Covad – lost a
collective $1.15 billion on sales of $280 million in the first 3
quarters of 2000. This week all 3, part of our “New Economy”
and the supposed clamor for all things broadband, were dropped
from the USA Today Internet index. Folks, all that construction
you”ve seen in your own communities doesn”t come cheap.
Which leads me to a quote from my main man, economist Robert
Samuelson.
“New technologies don”t guarantee new profits, and without
profits, new technologies will founder.”
And then there is the issue of AT&T and their announcement
this week that they were raising their cable rates. I don”t know
how some Americans can afford cable anymore. My home bill is
$58 for basic, including HBO (or rather, including “The
Sopranos”), which will be rising to about $65, or $780 a year.
Geezuz, that”s real money. So Econ. 101 tells you that
something has got to give. But the telecom companies have
over $200 billion of debt (conservatively), taken on to build out
these unprofitable systems. Boing!
–Retail holiday sales were, after all, as weak as I initially
anticipated. The original flash estimates spoke of growth of 2.5-
3.0%. Wrong. The real number ended up being about 0.5%.
–There were 133,000 job cuts across the land in December,
triple the figure for November. [Source: Challenger, Gray]
–No surprise here. Steel production, my favorite economic
indicator, is absolutely plunging. [The figures aren”t as easy to
read these days, however, because of all the dumping from
overseas taking place.]
–International returns for 2000 from some emerging markets.
[Source: Birinyi Associates]
Iran, +44.5% [Another solid year for terrorist organizations.
Sure, there were a few high profile arrests, but this performance
shows some real depth in upper management.]
Mongolia, +80.1% [Huge run on goat cheese and leg of Yak.]
Uzbekistan, -61.8% [Now how this market and economy can
miss the mark, I”ll never know. After all, it”s bordered by
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and
Afghanistan!]
–I thought I”d just pass on some information that I track,
admittedly not very useful. One way I look at volatility (on the
down side) is the number of days where the S&P 500 falls 1% or
more. 1997-32, 1998-33, 1999-40, 2000-56. And for 2001,
well, think of this. 3 of the first 4 days had declines of greater
than 1%.
–Financier George Soros, a lousy investor the past few years,
nonetheless still commands respect on the international scene.
“I believe (the landing in the U.S.) will be bouncy and hard…But
I am much more worried about the consequences on the edge of
the system because this edge has been weakened because of the
1997-98 crisis, and I believe we will have more serious
repercussions in distant regions, such as southeast Asia.”
Soros added, however, “You can”t have a crash after a crash.”
His main concern has to do with the inadequate flows of capital
from industrial to emerging nations. And after all of the horror
stories I tell you weekly about some of the Asian countries, can
you see that changing? No way.
–In the almost two years of doing this commentary (I”m going
to have a special one on February 17 to mark this site”s 2nd
birthday, by the way, one which you won”t want to miss) I have
been hesitant to recommend specific products or stocks, though
I have no problem in telling you what sectors I favor; easy in my
case because it”s been energy all the way for almost the whole
period.
Anyway, the only product and firm I have endorsed is PIMCO,
where I used to hang my hat. Specifically, you can have every
confidence in the PIMCO lineup of bond funds. And I also
mentioned a few months ago that for your core fixed income
holding, you should look at the PIMCO Total Return Fund,
managed by the best in the business, William Gross.
Well, I”m proud to say that Gross and his PIMCO team were this
week named “Fixed Income Managers of the Year” by
Morningstar for an unprecedented second time.
Congratulations. And congratulations to me, gosh darn it!
–“New Investor Week.” CNBC had an embarrassing feature
this past week. Yes, after the market Crash of 2000, one in
which some CNBC personnel played a none too small role in, the
network decided that, heck, why don”t we teach new investors
how to invest, successfully, this time, on Wall Street.
For starters, they already have done a decent job in explaining
major Wall Street events, particularly Kathleen Hayes, but now it
was time for them to teach us everything you wanted to know
about the markets but were afraid to ask.
Folks, in all my years on Wall Street, the most fun I ever had
was teaching the kids on the PIMCO sales desk what the
markets were all about. Those that were interested used to
come into Uncle Brian”s office from time to time and ask me
what this or that event really meant. And then we would have
formal group sessions where I would explain how nuclear war
can have an impact on the yield curve, and thus the performance
of stocks and bonds.
But I would also tell every one of them, the only way you learn
the ways of Wall Street is to read the Wall Street Journal every
day (particularly page C1 and the credit section), read Barron”s,
get a good general newspaper like the Times or Washington Post
(staying clear of the op-ed pages) and watch CNBC or
“Moneyline” from time to time to listen to what the pundits say
(not, however, to what they do). And then repeat that routine
for about 3 years.
You don”t learn Wall Street in one week and for CNBC to act
like they could teach you in that period of time was ridiculous.
No, follow my routine above and one morning, as you get out of
bed, you suddenly go, “So that”s why the yield curve is
important.”
So thanks for letting me get that off my chest. But you must be
wondering what else is on my mind regarding this topic, right?
Glad you asked. On Wednesday, one of the anchors (who
normally knows his stuff) was foaming at the mouth over the
number of new highs on the NYSE (the “Big Board”). This was
a huge positive, we were told, 330 stocks had hit new highs, just
two days after the conclusion of a horrible year. But I”m about
to tell you something you just won”t find anywhere else. Never,
ever, give a damn about the number of new highs on the Big
Board. It is totally irrelevant.
Why? Because I counted, conservatively, at least 75 “preferred”
stock issues among the 330. These all have more to do with
activity in the bond market (they”re interest rate sensitive) than
the equity market. But, in addition, at least 26 other “new
highs” were Nuveen closed-end municipal funds! Again, that
has zippo to do with discerning market trends. So over 100 of
the 330 should have been thrown out. That”s my “Message of
the Markets.”
Then on Friday, another anchor was talking about S&P
downgrading bonds in Pacific Gas & Electric to BBB-. “That”s
junk,” she said. Wrong. That”s still investment grade (albeit
barely). And that”s a big difference. Alas, after a commercial
she had to admit her mistake.
We eagerly await “New Investor Week II.” Actually, no we
don”t.
International Affairs
Middle East: As of this writing it looks as though Bill Clinton
will not receive his peace treaty. Earlier in the week, Yassir
Arafat told Clinton that there was room for compromise. But
Israel”s Barak said that if an agreement was not reached soon,
the outlook for the whole region would be dismal.
Then, at week”s end, both sides seemed to recognize that the
prospects for a deal may have improved some, but any final plan
would need to wait for a new administration.
When the history of this chapter in the peace negotiations is
written, much of the blame will undoubtedly be placed directly at
the feet of Bill Clinton. It may not be my place to give a
viewpoint on a topic as sensitive as this, particularly because of
the religious implications in determining who gets control over
various holy sites in Jerusalem, but it seems pretty clear to me
what should have been done.
They had a deal on essentially everything but Jerusalem. So
wrap the rest up. Sign it. Test it. Gain confidence in each
other. Then tackle Jerusalem from a position of mutual trust.
President Clinton was ramming stuff down everyone”s throat.
That”s what history will record. Perhaps a little dose of Colin
Powell is just what the doctor ordered.
Russia: Aside from the fact that Russia once again is reneging
on their debts (as was the story Friday), they also have a huge
credibility problem when it comes to the issue of Kaliningrad,
their World War II conquest that lies between Germany and the
Baltics (and is separate from Russia proper).
The Washington Times reported that the Russians had moved
short-range nuclear missiles onto the territory. U.S. officials
later confirmed that this may be the case.
The Russians denied that they would ever do such a thing. After
all, were they not the ones who said Kaliningrad would remain
nuclear free? But, couldn”t you argue that throughout history
they have been just about the biggest liars around?
The Russians possess some 10,000 short-range tactical weapons,
each with a range of about 80 miles. In other words, these
missiles can reach Poland, and you can imagine the uproar in that
nation this week. Poland is demanding inspections of the
Russian bases. Moscow is refusing.
And why would Russia be taking such an act? Well, their
conventional military is a shambles, witness Chechnya, so nukes
are all they have to signify their power.
But the larger reason concerns one of the big policy blunders of
the Clinton administration. The eager admittance of Eastern
European nations into NATO before their time. Russia correctly
felt threatened. Just as in the Middle East, there was absolutely
no reason to force the issue when we did.
Meanwhile, President Putin finally unveiled Russia”s new
national anthem (I didn”t want to comment until I heard it, lyrics
and all). Actually, it”s the old, pre-Yeltsin music (familiar to any
viewer of the Olympics) with new lyrics. Praise of Lenin has
now been replaced by “Russia, our sacred country.” So they”re
throwing a little God in there. But the stirring martial music
stands, ready to be cranked up at a moment”s notice.
China / Taiwan: Is peace breaking out? Well, not yet, but even
a hawk like yours truly has to be a little encouraged by a number
of developments.
First off, a trade delegation from Taiwan ventured by boat to the
mainland for the first official contact in over 50 years. Then
some opposition party officials ventured over.
While all of this was taking place, China”s main foreign policy
official had some encouraging remarks intended to influence
George W. Bush. China is adapting a “pragmatic and more
inclusive” version of its long standing one-China policy, which
holds there is only one China. And, as the Washington Post”s
John Pomfret reported, they seem to be broadening the
definition.
So we should patiently observe what happens next. Bush,
though, still needs to be firm when he assumes the presidency.
Very firm.
[I still believe that a real outcome could be a secret deal cut by
the grossly corrupt Taiwanese business leaders who wouldn”t
care what kind of leader they have, as long as they can
monopolize their business and live the good life. China, in turn,
installs its own puppet in Taipei with the next election…a rigged
one, of course.]
Meanwhile, China”s corruption investigation goes on. Over
130,000 have now been arrested and 3 more former customs
officials were sentenced to death this week.
Iraq: This could be story #1 this week and we don”t even know
it! Government officials denied reports that Saddam had a
massive stroke the other day, and may even be dead. What”s
interesting is that I, like others, had read a story of Iraq”s largest
military parade since the Gulf War on New Year”s Eve. The
BBC showed a picture of Saddam overseeing the festivities,
which included a display of 1,000 Russian-made tanks.
Days go by and then we learn that television coverage of the
parade had suddenly been pulled without explanation. Some
reports said that Saddam literally collapsed after firing his rifle in
salute.
Now this isn”t the first time a story like this has emerged. Let
that be a lesson to all of you recluses out there.
But, while on the surface the West would rejoice at Saddam”s
passing, remember who is next in line. Son Uday. And I may
have to dust off one of my old “Hott Spotts” pieces wherein I
described just how sick a dude Uday is. He is nuts. But Uday is
also wheelchair bound, the victim of an assassination attempt
four years ago.
Iran: Police arrested 262 people for showing up in “indecent”
clothes at a private New Year”s party. [All kinds of stuff
happening in Persia on New Year”s! I”ll have to check it out
next year.] All but 40 were eventually released, the 40 probably
being “Gap Kids.”
But the good news in Iran was that President Khatami has
decided to run for reelection. Khatami remains the West”s last
hope for reform and there had been rumors he was going to pack
it in.
India / Pakistan: The Indian government extended the cease-fire
involving Pakistan and the disputed region of Kashmir another
month and now there is some hope that real peace talks will
commence soon.
Philippines: Last Saturday, a coordinated series of bomb attacks
was launched in Manila, killing 22 and wounding hundreds. At
first, it was thought the offensive was designed to disrupt the
impeachment trial against President Estrada. By week”s end,
however, officials felt it was the work of separatists.
Europe: There are two issues that are front and center in
European society this week; “Balkan syndrome” and the ongoing
mad cow scare.
Balkan syndrome is a result of the firing of uranium depleted
shells in Kosovo by NATO troops. The deaths of 6 Italian
soldiers who served there is being at least partially attributed to
the effects of exposure to the shells” uranium powder. [The shells
have an amazing ability to pierce armor, thus their use.] This is a
huge issue on the continent.
And as for the spreading mad cow disease, that is truly scary.
Random Musings
–“2001” author Arthur C. Clarke: “What disturbs me (today) is
the people making (computer) viruses. That”s the only thing I”m
in favor of the death penalty for.” Yeesh.
–With Donald Rumsfeld about to become defense secretary for
a second time, we are about to hear a lot more about a national
missile defense shield, since he headed up the ”98 Commission to
Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States.
Strategist Richard Garwin served on the panel with Rumsfeld
and detailed their findings. Following is an excerpt concerning a
different national security problem.
“We also cautioned that it would be easier and faster for one of
these nations to develop short-range ballistic missiles or cruise
missiles that could pose a threat to America”s coastal cities.
Armed with anthrax or another biological agent, or with nuclear
warheads, such missiles would be a more potent threat than
would a few ICBM”s. As we on the commission noted, anthrax
could be loaded into hundreds of bomblets rather than into a
single large missile warhead. Released from an ICBM on the
way up, the bomblets would spread to cover a large city by the
time they arrived at their targets. Such an attack could kill more
people in a target city than could a first-generation nuclear
weapon.”
–Al Gore”s popular vote lead ended up being in the 540,000
range. But get this, Gore won New York by 1.7 million and
California by 1.3 million. So take them out and Bush won the
other 48 by 2.5 million. You heard it here first.
–More original fun with #”s: George Bush won 2470 counties.
The Nasdaq finished 2000 at 2470.
–The Earth Liberation Front, a bunch of environmental terrorists
that burned down a hotel in Vail, CO., a few years ago, has
begun torching new homes on Long Island as part of their
protest against urban sprawl. I don”t know one person in
America who “favors” urban sprawl, but these folks obviously
deserve the chair. [Ahh, Arthur C. Clarke wrote that, yeah,
it was him.]
–Mark February 21 on your calendar, the date of the Grammy
Awards. With the nominations handed to Eminem, it promises
to be quite a show.
–The Texas 7, those escaped cons, are wreaking havoc and
fraying nerves in the Southwest. And one of the problems is that
the mug shots being shown are 10-years-old. So why don”t they
have annual class pictures or something?
–Congratulations to my new friends in Oklahoma for their
national football championship!
–Bill Clinton is on a tear with his regulation blitz, declaring
some 58 million acres of pristine federal lands off-limits to road-
building and logging, which also means it would be off-limits to
the development of natural gas fields.
–Dr. Harold Shipman, Britain”s “Doctor Death,” is now being
implicated in at least 265 murders. You”re reading that right.
But I think I”ll save this story for Monday”s “Bar Chat.”
–Last week I wrote of the concern the Japanese seemed to be
having over our StarLink corn product. Well, information has
come to light (like from my latest issue of The High Plains
Journal…for ranchers and farmers) that the fear may be fading
and exports seem to be picking up again. But as another
columnist wrote, it just takes one little discovery of tainted corn
and it”s all over.
–Progress? [Continued from last week.]
The following is from Newsweek:
“What if you could take a picture on your digital camera, zap it
over to your Palm Pilot to take out the red eye, then e-mail it to
your friends via your mobile phone. Without any cables
involved?”
Why wouldn”t you just get a life?!
–NBCi.com has this new feature they”ve been advertising,
“QuickClick,” wherein you “click on any word and instantly
learn everything about it.”
So I thought, what the hell, and I downloaded the program. But
much to my horror, I couldn”t just click on any word and learn
all about it. Because, you see, the reason why I downloaded
“QuickClick” was to learn about the word “is!” Not being able
to do so, I quickclicked “uninstall.”
–Buffalo, N.Y., hit 100 inches of snow for the season already.
That”s the quickest they”ve ever hit the century mark.
Congratulations, Buffalo!…….Buffalo?……Come in, Buffalo.
Ah, Jim, we better send in the Humvees.
Gold closed at $269
Oil, $27.95
Returns for the week, 1/1-1/5
Dow Jones -1.2%
S&P 500 -1.7%
S&P MidCap -5.3%
Russell 2000 -4.2%
Nasdaq -2.5%
Bulls 52.9%
Bears 35.6%
Notes:
–My series on The Great Tech Bubble continues in “Wall Street
History.”
–Next week, “The Clinton Presidency.” Your editor weighs in.
Have a great week. I appreciate your support!
Brian Trumbore
