Before I begin what is a stemwinder focusing on Iran, just a word on the tragedies that have been unfolding the past week in the Philippines, Indonesia and the Samoan Islands.
In the case of Manila, which received 16 inches of rain in a 12-hour period last weekend before just missing a second typhoon today (look out Taiwan, again), it was about government and a simple act that could have saved the city from catastrophic damage. Keeping the sewers clean. The drains were clogged with garbage to begin with and there was nowhere for the water to go. It’s insane.
With Indonesia, such is life in the Ring of Fire, the earthquake/volcano belt, but officials allowed a city of 900,000 to grow up right on top of it, Padang, that was always living on the edge and in danger of being inundated in a quake, which tragically turned out to be the case, while an earthquake off Samoa caused the incredible tsunamis, with at least four walls of 20-foot high water slamming into the islands. The combined death toll in all three disasters now exceeds 1,500.
Some of the human suffering was preventable, some not. Pray for the deceased and for the lives of the survivors.
The week began with the U.S. and its prime allies, France, Britain and Germany, pledging to levy harsher sanctions on Tehran if it didn’t come clean on its nuclear program, while we all waited to see if Russia and China, the other members of the so-called P5+1 group (the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany), would go along in talks held in Geneva on Thursday. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy beforehand was taking the hardest line, saying seven years of dialogue had gotten us nowhere, while U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates addressed the elephant in the room in maintaining that an attack on Iran, should it not comply, would only delay the Iranian nuclear program 1-2 years. Israel, in turn, saw its window for action closing rapidly.
For their part the Iranians test-fired both short- and medium-range missiles as a demonstration of their capabilities should there be a strike, as President Ahmadinejad kept reiterating Iran’s “nuclear rights” were off limits.
Then the parties convened in Geneva and after a few hours, and a light lunch, President Obama and his European counterpart declared that there had been a “constructive beginning” to the talks; that Iran had agreed to allow inspectors into the Qom facility in two weeks and that the issue of sending Iran’s enriched uranium to a third party (read France or Russia) for reformulation and use for medical purposes only, at least initially, was potentially in the cards. Iran was also offered an old deal that if it froze its enrichment activities, no new sanctions would be levied. But as of this writing there was no response from Tehran on this or the third party enrichment offer.
So where does this leave me with my thoughts that Israel would attack in November? All I can do is analyze each development as it rolls in and throw it into the equation and the only fair thing to say at this point is let’s see what Iran does over the coming two weeks. I in no way expect them to make any sweeping concessions, but if intrusive inspections do take place at Qom, and then the International Atomic Energy Agency asks to inspect other suspected facilities and Iran lets it, well that could prolong the timetable some.
But if the inspection is limited to just the Qom facility, one that will have undoubtedly been swept of damning evidence, then I would think the clock keeps ticking.
For now I just need to be responsible and you all know my mantra is “wait 24 hours.” It’s thus doubtful I’m going to be giving the ‘hit the sidelines’ signal next week, but perhaps the one after. One thing we do know, Israel is getting exceedingly impatient as it knows there are far more ‘secret’ facilities than Qom to worry about, some of which no doubt are not just about enriching uranium, but also testing warheads. We already know Iran has the missiles to deliver same.
With important issues such as this, I like to give a lot of opinion from outside, not just for the archives but for my own later research. [Some of the following opinion pieces were written a few days prior to Thursday’s talks.]
Editorial / New York Post
“Iran, the United States and five other big-power nations met yesterday in Geneva for what were described as ‘constructive talks.’
“Terrific. But does anyone seriously think the world is any closer today to bursting Iran’s dreams of nuclear weapons? Please.
“In fact, it’s hard to see anything good coming from these talks. Yes, reports say the tone of discussions turned positive. Iran supposedly agreed to open its uranium-enrichment facility in Qom – whose existence it tried to keep secret – to international inspectors and to transfer its low-enriched uranium to a third nation.
“Yet even if (and it’s a big ‘if’) Tehran lives up to those agreements, the mad mullahs may have other ways to pursue nukes. Already, for example, there is deep suspicion that Qom is just one of several secret Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Truth is, any rational look at the nature of Iran’s rulers – recently, as well as over the past 30 years – strongly suggests that yet another round of dialogue won’t get Tehran to ditch its greatest ambition.
“Just this summer, stole an election – and brutalized dissenters.
“Has long sponsored terrorists, including those who killed Americans.
“Tried to hide key elements of its nuclear program, like the Qom facility.
“And, remember, the West has conducted talks with the mullahs, on and off, since the overthrow of the Shah 30 years ago. Why would yet more discussions persuade them to shift course now?
“President Obama himself yesterday admitted that ‘talk is not a substitute for action.’ He said the West’s ‘patience is not unlimited’ and that he would ‘move toward increased pressure’ on Iran if it tried to drag out discussions.
“But why wait? Even now, it’s a safe bet that something tougher than more talk will be needed to get Iran’s attention.”
“On long evidence, the regime has no intention of stopping a nuclear program that would give it new power in the region, and new leverage against America. The Qom news reveals a more extensive, sophisticated and covert nuclear complex than many people, including the CIA, were willing to recognize. The facility is located on a Revolutionary Guard base, partly hidden underground and protected by air-defense missiles. Its capacity of 3,000 centrifuges is too small for civilian use but not for a weapons program. It’s a good bet an archipelago of such small covert facilities is scattered around Iran.
“Meanwhile, news reports this week say German and British intelligence believe Iran never stopped clandestine efforts to design a nuclear warhead. Their assumptions contradict the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in 2007 that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and kept it frozen.
“The evidence is overwhelming that the window to stop the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism from acquiring a bomb is closing fast. If we are serious about doing so, the proper model isn’t North Korea, but Libya. The Gaddafi regime agreed to disarm after the fall of Saddam Hussein convinced its leaders that their survival was better assured without nuclear warheads. Mr. Ahmadinejad and Iran’s mullahs will only concede if they see their future the same way.
“This supposed fresh start in Geneva only gives them new legitimacy, and new hope that they can have their bomb and enhanced global standing too.”
On the issue of Russia, I’ve been saying it’s primarily concerned with keeping its channels open to Iran for future military sales and this week the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow journal, told the Financial Times, “We will have two months of very interesting bargaining,” and it’s possible Russia would go along with additional sanctions as long as they did not include a ban on military or nuclear co-operation.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in formal remarks to the UN Security Council, let loose his frustrations with President Obama.
“I support America’s ‘extended hand.’ But what have these proposals for dialogue produced for the international community? Nothing but more enriched uranium and more centrifuges. And last but not least, it has resulted in a statement by Iranian leaders calling for wiping off the map a Member of the United Nations. What are we to do? What conclusions are we to draw? At a certain moment hard facts will force us to make decisions.”
Earlier, in a meeting with German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin, Sarkozy said, “We supported President Obama’s extended hand to Iran’s leaders, but this hand cannot remain extended indefinitely with leaders who do not respond….Meanwhile, the centrifuges keep on turning.” [Wall Street Journal, Washington Post]
Ralph Peters / New York Post
“Iran’s traditional emblem has been the Persian lion. Russia’s should be a vulture: Prime Minister Vladimir Putin intends to feed on the carcass left by any confrontation with Iran.
“For Moscow, this crisis isn’t about Tehran’s acquisition of nukes. It’s about Russia’s acquisition of a stranglehold on global energy markets.
“Putin’s playing with fire – but he’s sure we’ll be the ones burned.
“As for the Obama administration’s desperate (and stunningly naïve) hope that economic sanctions can deter President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his fellow thugs-for-Allah from pursuing nuclear weapons, forget it.
“Even were Putin to permit his front-man, President Dmitri Medvedev, to agree to half-baked sanctions, Moscow would violate them before Obama could step out of Air Force One with a piece of paper in his hand guaranteeing peace in our time.
“The current crisis is a win-win-win for Putin. But before laying out his plan, let’s run the numbers:
“The Persian Gulf’s littoral states hold over 60 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40 percent of the natural gas. Russia has ‘just’ 10 percent of the oil reserves and 35 percent of the world’s natural gas.
“Do the math: Iran and its neighbors, along with Russia, own two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves and 70 percent of the natural gas. And the global economy still runs on oil and gas, folks….
“ *For now, Russia profits wonderfully from its trade, both legal and illicit, with Iran, while the West talks itself to death. Life is good.
“ *But life could get even better. If Iran’s nuclear quest isn’t blocked, a nuclear arsenal will give Iran de facto control of all Persian Gulf oil. Putin envisions a Moscow-Tehran axis, an energy cartel that dramatically increases the value of his oil and gas – the only economic props keeping the corpse of Russia upright.
“ *If Israel’s driven to a forlorn-hope attack on Iran’s nuke program, Iran will respond by striking Gulf Arab oil fields and facilities, while closing the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military will be in it, like it or not. Oil and gas prices will soar unimaginably – and the bear will have its paws on the golden tap….
“For us, the Iran crisis is about peace. For Putin, it’s about power. Yet the self-deluding Obama administration really believes that Moscow’s going to support us. After our president gave away our only serious bargaining chip, the missile-defense system promised to our European allies.
“Putin thinks in 10-year-plans. We can’t think past the next congressional roll-call vote.
“The Obama administration’s primary legacy to the world is going to be a nuclear-armed Iran.”
[Quoting President Obama’s statement on September 25, 2009, concerning the revelation about the second uranium-enrichment facility.]
“ ‘To put it simply: Iran must comply with UN Security Council resolutions and make clear it is willing to meet its responsibilities as a member of the community of nations. We have offered Iran a clear path toward greater international integration if it lives up to its obligations, and that offer stands.’
“The offer stands? Iran has been caught lying about its nuclear program three times in the last decade. The mullahs fixed the June 12 election and violently suppressed the brave Iranians who had the audacity to say so. The Iranian regime is continuing to train, fund, and arm terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan whose primary purpose is the killing of American soldiers. And the U.S. State Department considers Iran the world’s leading state sponsor of terror.
“For another American president, any one of these things might be cause to seek the destabilization of the regime, and all of them together might be cause to seek its removal. Not for Obama. He is determined to pursue ‘engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect,’ as he has put it….
“In some respects, the news of the second Iranian facility makes it harder for Obama to pretend that the Iranian regime is something it’s not. And one line in particular from his statement Friday would seem to complicate his engagement-at-all-costs strategy. ‘The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.’
“It is a line that the U.S. intelligence community would not allow George W. Bush to use. Although Western intelligence services had been looking at this facility for years, they had been unable – or unwilling – to draw conclusions about its purpose. When Obama was first briefed on the facility – as president-elect – the CIA had not determined that the facility was for the production of highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.
“We are left with many questions. What, if anything, changed? Was there new intelligence? If so, what is it? If not, why did the CIA change its conclusion and allow the president to use this language? When did Obama learn that the benefit of the doubt he had been giving Iran on its nuclear program was, in effect, helping the Iranian regime perpetuate its lies?
“Perhaps most important, will this public revelation of the facility create the political pressure necessary to persuade Obama to finally get tough with Iran?”
Robert Kagan / Washington Post
“What the world has not focused on is the one thing Iran’s rulers care about: their own survival.
“You have to give the clerics credit for keeping this grave matter off Western agendas. The fraudulent presidential election in June and the subsequent mass demonstrations produced the biggest regime crisis in years. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must have been panicked at the prospect of losing control – and with reason. Western democrats, not knowing what it is like to rule by fear and force, generally underestimate what a scary and uncertain business it can be, how a single wrong move, usually a too-timid response, can spell catastrophe. Even the masterful Deng Xiaoping, faced with much smaller opposition demonstrations in 1989, believed his Communist oligarchy could lose power absent a decisive show of force followed by a thorough purge of unreliable figures in the regime. In Iran, the regime’s violent crackdown, its mass arrests of opposition figures – including the children of high-ranking clerics – and all the farcical show trials have been signs of weakness and anxiety, not confidence….
“The regime’s overriding goal since the election, therefore, has been to buy time and try to reestablish and consolidate control without any foreign interference in its internal affairs. In this Tehran has succeeded admirably.
“But it has also had help. The Obama administration has, perhaps unwittingly, been a most cooperative partner. It has refused to make the question of regime survival part of its strategy. Indeed, it doesn’t even treat Iran as if it were in the throes of a political crisis. President Obama seems to regard the ongoing turmoil as a distraction from the main business of stopping Iran’s nuclear program. And this is exactly what the rulers in Tehran want him to do: focus on the nukes and ignore the regime’s instability.
“It would be better if the administration focused on the regime’s instability and ignored the nukes.
“This ought to be the goal of the ‘crippling’ sanctions the Obama administration has threatened. Sanctions will not persuade the present Iranian government to give up its nuclear weapons program. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei see the nuclear program and their own survival as intimately linked. But the right kinds of sanctions could help the Iranian opposition topple these still-vulnerable rulers….
“Americans have a fundamental strategic interest in seeing a change of leadership in Iran. There is good reason to believe that a democratic Iran might forgo a nuclear weapon – just as a democratizing Russia abandoned long-standing Soviet foreign and defense strategies – or at least be more amenable to serious negotiations. Even if it is not, we have much less to fear from a nuclear weapon in the hands of a democratic Iran integrated into the liberal democratic world than from a weapon in the hands of Ahmadinejad.”
Ray Takeyh / Washington Post
“To reclaim his lost luster [following the fraudulent election], [Ahmadinejad] will be tempted to reach out to the Western powers, searching abroad for the validation that he is so lacking at home. At this week’s talks, Iran’s representatives are likely to subtly hint of cooperation to come – but only if the talks continue. However, such gestures do not mean Iran is prepared to offer meaningful concessions and impose any restraints on its nuclear ambitions. Ahmadinejad, who has fused the nuclear program with Iranian nationalism and criticized reformers for being too accommodating to Western demands, will have a tough time compromising on the nuclear front.
“Ahmadinejad has presented a quandary for an Obama administration committed to a diplomatic solution on Iran – a quandary only aggravated by his sham election and the ensuing crackdown on political opponents. During Iran’s turbulent summer, I served as an Iran adviser in the State Department, and I saw the challenge of criticizing that country’s electoral fraud while preventing the United States from being a pawn in its internal debate….
“With Iran, the United States should insist on discussing several issues: the nuclear program, of course, but also Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism, its interference in the affairs of its neighbors and its human rights record. It is hard to see how Ahmadinejad could use such talks to relegitimize his tainted rule or reclaim the domestic initiative from dissidents challenging him.
“U.S. insistence on discussing the full array of Iranian malfeasances has the extra advantage of determining whether Tehran’s proposal for comprehensive dialogue is real. If Iran is truly interested in escaping its pariah status, then it will swallow the bitter pill of such discussions. Conversely, if Ahmadinejad sees the negotiations only as a means of rejuvenating his image at home, he will probably reject such an agenda….
“Ahmadinejad should not be afforded the luxury of international forums and dialogue with the great powers without being held accountable for his country’s flawed electoral processes and its entanglements in terrorism, as well as its nuclear violations. Why should the Islamic republic expect better treatment than the Soviet Union got at the apex of its power?”
Michael Ledeen / Washington Post
“In 2007, the Security Council banned all arms exports from Iran, froze Iranian assets, and restricted the travel of anyone involved in the Iranian nuclear program. The following year, it called for investigations of Iranian banks, and authorized member countries to start searching planes and ships coming or going from or to Iran. All to no avail.
“Thirty years of negotiations and sanctions have failed to end the Iranian nuclear program and its war against the West. Why should anyone think they will work now? A change in Iran requires a change in government. Common sense and moral vision suggest we should support the courageous opposition movement, whose leaders have promised to end support for terrorism and provide total transparency regarding the nuclear program.”
Lastly, I myself was disappointed President Obama failed to mention Iran’s support of terrorism following Thursday’s talks. Frankly, it was startling he failed to do so. No doubt Israel noticed.
It was certainly an interesting week, with a rousing third quarter ending on Wednesday and then a new one starting in rather dismal fashion.
First, for the third quarter, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 each rose 15%, for the former the best back-to-back quarters since 1975, while Q3 was the best since 1939 and the best quarter, period, since 1998. For the S&P, it was the second consecutive quarter with a 15% return, and by quarter’s end the key index for stocks had risen 56% off the March 9 low. Nasdaq, meanwhile, rose 15.7% on top of 20% in Q2.
But foreign stocks did just as well with a key index for European blue chips rising 17% in the third quarter. It’s also safe to say this bull run has been the most unloved rally in history.
It was a rally, though, built on a shaky foundation. True, the world had avoided financial Armageddon, and economies virtually across the board have shown some initial signs of growth (while the likes of China and India basically power on). But in the past two weeks there have been signs the nascent recovery is stalling out as still rising unemployment in the developed world has only exacerbated the plight of a consumer that remains tapped out, no longer able to access his home as a piggy bank and fearful for both his job and the future. We’ve hunkered down and are loath to whip out the plastic.
But what of the actual details? In looking at the U.S. economy, one shocker was the horrible Chicago purchasing managers number for Sept., 46.1 (50 being the dividing line between growth and contraction) when 52.0 was expected. And while the national ISM figure for manufacturing last month then came in at 52.6, this was less than the 54.0 the market was looking for. Factory orders for August also came in far below expectations.
On the other hand, personal income and consumption were both better, and the S&P/Case-Shiller real estate barometer on home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas for July (its latest data point) was up again, while pending home sales for August were the highest since March 2007. Taken as a whole, all the above were far from a disaster, but they weren’t great either.
Then there was the September jobs report, down 263,000 with the unemployment rate ticking up to 9.8%, the highest level since 1983 (and an unofficial rate far higher). The number of jobs lost since the recession officially started in December 2007 is now over 7 million, the biggest decline since the Great Depression. We’re all in agreement, these days it’s about jobs, period. Jobs beget confidence and confidence begets consumer spending.
It’s the issue of confidence and sentiment that I have harped on all year. The mantra has been stocks trade as much, if not more, off sentiment as fundamentals and a rising market of course added to an increasingly bullish sentiment that then led to further buying of equities…even as the fundamentals weren’t overwhelmingly positive. From here on, though, we need real follow through in terms of earnings and better jobs numbers in order to propel the market back above the recent highs. And amidst the still ongoing credit contraction that Meredith Whitney has been so spot on about, until the banks begin to lend to small business and consumers, consumer spending will remain punk. It’s pretty simple. Whitney keeps writing about the $trillions being withdrawn in terms of credit lines and it’s tough to grow in this kind of environment.
Internationally, China’s economy remains a bright spot as its Sept. PMI came in at 54.3, better than August, while exports hit a 16-month high. The government repeated it would stick with an accommodative monetary policy, but at the same time will cut overcapacity in industries such as steel, aluminum, cement and power.
Japan, however, is a different story. While unemployment unexpectedly ticked down to 5.5%, and business confidence rose for a second quarter in a row, the same businesses said they would continue to cut back due to an uncertain profit picture (which calls into question how they can then be positive). August industrial production did rise a bit, but deflation is still an issue here as core consumer prices fell for a fourth straight month, a record 2.4% in August.
India, meanwhile, continues to target 6% GDP growth for 2009, but the worst drought in 37 years could cut into this pace.
Back in the States, GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt damped down expectations for the global recovery while adding that China’s economic prospects are far more important than the U.S. these days, and Wal-Mart said it had not seen a real pick-up in its business…quite telling.
Finally, the IMF did raise its GDP outlook for the world economy to 3.1% in 2010 with China up a projected 9% and India advancing 6.4%. But Japan is due to come in with a putrid 1.7% figure and the U.S. an equally lousy 1.5%. The IMF also emphasized that the banking sector’s lack of capital impedes the restoration of credit flows and that there was too much complacency about repairing the banking system in general.
–It was the second straight losing week for stocks, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both losing 1.8% and Nasdaq 2.1%. Earnings for the third quarter will begin seeping out next week, with the following two providing a gusher of information that should give us some guidance on the fourth quarter, including for a holiday shopping season that is not setting up to be a good one….flat at best over last year\’s dismal effort.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
Look at those yields. Bonds rallied anew on renewed fears the economy was tipping backwards along with pronouncements from the likes of PIMCO’s Bill Gross that the only thing we have to fear is deflation itself (slight exaggeration but anyone still thinking inflation is about to take off is an idiot…to reiterate, don’t waste my time talking about inflation until the job picture improves and wages begin to rise…it’s that simple).
Separately, if you have good credit and can afford to put 20% down on a home, you won’t find a better time to buy with mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed approaching 4.90%.
–Swine flu continues to spread across the entire country, according to the Centers for Disease Control, and while the young and women who are pregnant are the chief targets of early vaccination efforts, more than 99 percent of all swine flu cases are mild to moderate.
I was in Ireland for a few days during the week and as we flew into Shannon, my airline issued all manner of health warnings from the Irish government about H1N1, but in my time there, not only did I not see one word in the Irish newspapers, I didn’t see any evidence anyone was sick. Like these days you become attuned to someone hacking away near you and there was nary an instance of this. So this is good.
–Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis joined the long list of departing CEOs on Wall Street as he was forced to resign amid the ongoing state and federal investigations into BofA’s disclosures, or lack thereof, before a shareholder vote approving the Merrill Lynch merger, a merger that a year ago was viewed as a patriotic move by Lewis to help save the U.S. financial system. Others who have gone or announced they will soon depart are Morgan Stanley’s John Mack, Bear Stearns’ Alan Schwartz, Merrill’s John Thain and, before him, Stanley O’Neal, Lehman’s Dick Fuld, and Charles Prince of Citigroup. The only real survivors are Jamie Dimon (J.P. Morgan Chase), Lloyd Blankfein (Goldman Sachs), and Vikram Pandit (Citigroup).
–With the expiration of the “cash-for-clunkers” rebate program, auto sales tumbled in September, as expected, but the numbers were nonetheless sobering; down 45% for General Motors from a year earlier, off 42% for Chrysler, Honda’s down 23%, Toyota’s 16%, Nissan’s 7%, and Ford’s a modest 5%.
–But the surprise of the week had to be Roger Penske and his Penske Automotive Group walking away from a deal to acquire General Motors’ Saturn unit in a move that spelled the demise of the brand that started in the 1980s (first car sold in 1990). GM moved immediately to eliminate Saturn and thousands of jobs. Penske pulled out because he didn’t feel he could secure a long-term supply of vehicles. [Once GM’s deal to supply Saturn vehicles ran out, Penske needed a new manufacturer and none was to be found. It was also hoped the Saturn dealership network would be a platform for selling a foreign brand in the U.S.]
–The Toyota Prius remains the most fuel efficient car (with an internal combustion engine) on the market today according to the federal government’s latest fuel economy ratings for the 2010 models, a combined city/highway figure of 50 mpg.
[Alas, Toyota also issued its largest-ever U.S. recall of vehicles because of problems with a removable floor mat that can cause the accelerator to get stuck…not a good thing if you’re going over a bridge, for example, or entering a hairpin turn on Pike’s Peak; at which point you’d resemble a stunt in a Bond flick.]
–The critical Senate Finance Committee is prepared to vote on health care legislation this coming week, voting 14-8 on a key amendment that would curb insurance executives pay.
Fred Barnes / The Weekly Standard…on the reform effort.
“Give President Obama credit for persistence. And stubbornness. And lack of imagination. He declared again last week that his health care plan ‘will slow the growth of health care costs for our families and our businesses and our government.’ And this historic achievement will be accompanied by a dazzling array of new medical benefits that everyone will receive – guaranteed by law. Okay, you’ve heard this before. But that’s the president’s story, and he’s sticking to it.
“The question is, why? Does he think we’re stupid? His argument has failed to persuade a sizeable majority of the American people precisely because they’re not stupid. They understand the laws of addition and subtraction. When you offer more – much, much more in this case – of a good, it’s going to cost more. Somebody has to pay for it. Yet Obama says we’ll all be paying less, and that includes businesses and government.”
–But then you had a piece by Nelson D. Schwartz of the New York Times on the Swiss health care system. A few snippets.
“(As) a potential model for the United States, the Swiss health care system involves some important trade-offs that American consumers, insurers and health care providers might find hard to swallow.
“The Swiss government does not ‘ration care’ – that populist bogeyman in the American debate – but it does keep down overall spending by regulating drug prices and fees for lab tests and medical devices. It also requires patients to share some costs – at a higher level than in the United States – so they have an incentive to avoid unnecessary treatments. And some doctors grumble that cost controls are making it harder these days for a physician to make a franc….
“Unlike the United States, where the Medicare program for the elderly costs taxpayers about $500 billion a year, Switzerland has no special break for older Swiss people beyond the general subsidy.”
–Manufacturing in Russia grew for the first time in 14 months in September as the Purchasing Managers Index hit 52, this after the economy shrank 10.9 percent in the second quarter. At the same time, delinquent loans to companies continue to rise and banks are not lending.
Separately, Russia’s oil production set another monthly record in September of 10 million barrels per day, thanks to the launching of a new project in the Arctic.
–Natural gas inventories hit a record as the recession curbs demand from manufacturers, down 12 percent in the first seven months of the year. Industrial users accounted for 29 percent of fuel consumption in 2008.
–India announced the world’s boldest plan for nuclear power development, saying it wants to boost its atomic capacity 12-fold by 2050 to end crippling power shortages while limiting carbon emissions. Its target is almost five times the current nuclear power capacity of the United States and far outstrips China’s plans.
–In U.S. dollar terms, the top global performer in equities in the third quarter was…. Lithuania, up 71%! No. 2…Estonia, up 50%. Congratulations to those of you who had 100% of your investable dollars in these markets.
[Uh oh…the worst was Slovakia, down 8%. My sympathies to my fellow Slovaks for this abysmal performance.]
–GE and cable giant Comcast (which really sucks, by the way), are exploring a deal in which NBC Universal would be spun off into a new company that would merge Comcast’s cable-network assets with NBCU, but it’s unlikely GE would sell off the whole unit.
–In a piece for the New York Times, Todd Woody reports that many of the larger alternative energy projects on the books, such as a mammoth solar facility in California that would generate the equivalent of 10 nuclear power plants’ worth of electricity, also gobble up water like you wouldn’t believe…as in 700 million gallons of the stuff in the Mojave Desert which normally receives two cups full, or thereabouts. Where does the water then come from? From freshwater wells designed for consumers? But some say not to worry because technology will rapidly evolve in the sector to the point where “wet cooling” won’t be required.
–Deflation Alert: The pitiful New York Mets are slashing season ticket prices for 2010 by 10 to 20 percent.
–According to Forbes, golfer Tiger Woods is the first athlete to crack the $1 billion mark in earnings.
–Princeton University joined the growing list of wealthy colleges to say the value of its endowment had plunged in the year ending June 30, down 23%.
–Microsoft’s Bill Gates remained ahead of Warren Buffett and Oracle’s Larry Ellison on the Forbes richest Americans list. Gates nonetheless lost $7 billion since September 2008 and now has a net worth of $50 billion. Buffett lost $10 billion to $40 billion.
The youngest billionaire is said to be Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, 25, whose worth is put at $2 billion.
–The following is primarily for CNBC junkies, but on Sunday I’m in the clubhouse at Lahinch after my round of golf, quaffing a pint, when I see this distinguished gentleman who looks very familiar. I ask him if he’s from New Jersey, he says he is, I mention I had to have seen him on CNBC and he confirms this, it being Ron Hermance, chairman & CEO of Hudson City Bancorp (Paramus, New Jersey)…the good banker that Erin Burnett is always highlighting as an example of one who had the appropriate underwriting standards. So we had a brief chat and he bought me a pint. Now who’s better than that? Down the road he’ll get some of my business as a result. [I\’m easy.]
–Meg James of the Los Angeles Times reports that ABC and CBS are discouraging their stars from appearing on Jay Leno’s new show in an attempt to kill his 10:00 p.m. audience and save their own ratings for the far more expensive dramas that air opposite him. Plus…
“Many in Hollywood have been openly rooting for the demise of Leno’s new show. There has been considerable hand-wringing because the talk and comedy show has eliminated hundreds of jobs for writers and cast and crew members who might otherwise have been employed in the production of five one-hour series.”
–You know the wheels on your luggage? Who came up with that smart idea that eluded man for, oh, a few hundred thousand years?
“It’s 22 years since Robert Plath, a pilot with the U.S. airline Northwest, stood his bag on its end, added wheels and a retractable handle and forever changed the way we travel. Rolling luggage is now the one thing you wouldn’t leave home without. Such was the response from his colleagues that it wasn’t long before Plath ditched his wings and started a luggage company, Travelpro, still going strong in the U.S. Plath retired from the business in 1999 and he has been quoted as saying that he was amazed by how his little invention, put together in his shed, took off.”
Afghanistan: NATO’s top commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, told a London audience on Thursday that the situation is serious and success not guaranteed.
“It is complex difficult terrain, both the land and the people. It is a tribal society with a culture vastly different from what most of us are familiar with and it varies around the country, so you cannot assume what is true in one province is true in another….
“(In) the end this is going to be decided in the minds and the perceptions of the Afghan people….
“A tremendous number of villagers live in fear, and we have officials who either can not or do not serve their people effectively, and violence is up, and it is not up only because there are more coalition forces, it is up because the insurgency has grown….
“We must gain the initiative by reversing the perceived momentum of the insurgents. We must seek rapid growth of Afghan national security forces, and that is the army and the police, and we must improve their effectiveness and our own through closer partnering, and this means we must plan together, live together, operate together and take advantage of each other’s strengths as we move forward….
“We need to reverse the current trends, and time does matter. Waiting does not prolong a favorable outcome. This effort will not remain winnable indefinitely, public support will not last indefinitely, but the cruel irony is to succeed, we need patience, discipline, resolve and time.”
McChrystal, who has requested an additional 40,000 troops, was asked by a questioner if he agreed with Vice President Biden that the military should focus on tracking down leaders of al-Qaeda in place of the broader effort against the Taliban and the general said, “The short answer is: no. You have to navigate from where you are, not where you wish to be. A strategy that does not leave Afghanistan in a stable position is probably a short-sighted strategy.”
And so the ball is in President Obama’s court, and as the Washington Post reported on Friday, senior advisers have major doubts as to McChrystal’s theories, including his “contention that the Taliban and al-Qaeda share the same strategic interests and that the return to power of the Taliban would automatically mean a new sanctuary for al-Qaeda.” But while Obama is being criticized for taking things slow even as McChrystal says there is no time for delay, the official result of the fraudulent election has also stood in the way and the UN is supposedly going to announce final numbers by Oct. 7. If there’s a run-off, logistics and the Afghan winter come into play. It would have to be held very quickly.
At least McChrystal has the support of Britain’s leading commander in the field, as well as the new NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the conservative Dane who is one of my favorite world figures these days. He supports America and what it stands for more than 50% of our own people do it often seems.
And it’s important to remember the sacrifices of our coalition partners. This week, for example, three French marines died as a result of a thunderstorm. One was struck by lightning and two died fording a river in the resultant flash flood. [It was at night so you can imagine the terror of it all.]
Finally, Douglas Macgregor is a fellow at the Straus Military Reform Project and I found his editorial in the current issue of Defense News interesting, though I hasten to add I don’t necessarily agree with all of it.
“Our large and pervasive military presence in Iraq alienated both the Sunni and Shiite Arabs while giving the Kurds an addictive taste of independence, a development with ominous consequences for their future survival in close proximity to Turkey. Our impact on Afghanistan is similar with even more profoundly negative strategic effects in Pakistan.
“Anyone sitting in the Kremlin must be delighted. After watching the United States squander a trillion dollars in Iraq while grinding its ground forces into ruin, Moscow can now celebrate the diversion of precious U.S. military and economic resources into Afghanistan while it turns its attention to the goal of controlling Ukraine and returning Russian military power to NATO’s eastern border.
“None of these developments is surprising. What we in the United States and Britain have done in Iraq and Afghanistan is unknowingly illuminate the clash not between civilizations, but between modernity and antiquity. That clash is more acute in Afghanistan than Iraq, but it’s an insurmountable obstacle to nation-building in both places. We proclaim moral principles when justifying our actions, but we wreak havoc and destruction on a backward, ancient world we do not understand.
“Our troops are not anthropologists or sociologists, they are soldiers and Marines who have been sent to impose America’s will on backward societies. The result is mutual hatred – not everywhere, but in enough places to feed what American military leaders like to call an ‘insurgency,’ the same word the British Army applied in 1920 to the Irish rebellion.
“What’s happening today in Afghanistan and what has already happened in Iraq is the application of questionable tactics without strategy, or what Sun Tzu called ‘the noise before defeat.’ Vapid phrases such as ‘population-centric’ or ‘killing is not primarily what we do’ are the noise before defeat. The Muslim world does not want the United States to be its savior, nor does it want to ‘Westernize’ through military occupation, regardless of the vaunted material benefits.
“President Barack Obama’s real goal should be to make the Islamist terrorist bleed while the United States expends as little blood and treasure as possible. We want to secure our interests; not to repeat the folly of Iraq in Afghanistan.”
Iraq: The U.S. commander in charge here, Gen. Ray Odierno, said attacks are down 85% over the last two years and the United States is in a position to draw down forces from a peak of 160,000 to the mandated 50,000 by August 2010. Currently the force has been reduced to 124,000. But Odierno warns that clear security lapses exist and that the government is far from accepted among all people, with the Kurds being a chief issue.
As for the elections slated for Jan. 16, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has vowed to run with a broad coalition.
China: What a show, the National Day military parade celebrating China’s 60th anniversary as a communist state. Many expert eyes were focused on various missiles that pose a direct threat to U.S. aircraft carriers, as well as new Dongfeng intercontinental ballistic missiles that can be trucked around as opposed to silo-based, the latter being easier to target. President Hu Jintao addressed the troops and the nation, saying the country’s rising military might was a great contribution to ensuring world peace.
Chris Patten, last British governor of Hong Kong / The Moscow Times
“Every country is shaped by its history, but countries fabricate and rewrite their histories, too. The story of how we became who we are needs to accommodate our sense of tribal solidarity and accomplishment. Our triumphs and virtues are exaggerated. Our villains externalized, and our failings covered up. All this makes the study of history potentially insurrectionary, but hugely valuable. Good historians encourage us to be honest about ourselves. They destroy our self-delusions.
“This is especially true of our flawed heroes, as we see today with the Chinese Communist Party’s treatment of Mao Zedong. Sixty years ago on Oct. 1, Mao stood on the rostrum of Tiananmen, the Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing, and declared the founding of the People’s Republic. That moment marked the end of years of war and terrible hardship. The revolution had been won through blood, sacrifice, heroism, the mistakes of enemies and the manipulative assistance of Stalin, who purported to be a friend….China could stand up, though much misery still lay ahead as Mao’s tyranny put down its roots.
“Verdicts on Mao differ wildly. For hard-line Communists, he was a hero three times over – historical, patriotic and world-class. For the brave and charismatic dissident Wei Jingsheng, Mao ‘cast virtually the whole of China into a state of violence, duplicity, and poverty.’
“The Communist Party’s official verdict, undoubtedly the product of fierce ideological disputes, is that he was a great Marxist and revolutionary, whose ‘gross mistakes’ during the Cultural Revolution were outweighed by his contribution to China. ‘His merits,’ it argues, ‘are primary and his errors secondary.’….
“There was the Great Leap Forward, which led to mass starvation and perhaps as many as 38 million deaths. Then the madness of the Cultural Revolution, when millions suffered terribly, many died and many more behaved disgracefully as Mao sought to destroy those who had rescued China from his earlier follies….
“Yet it is China’s economic renaissance which has been the most remarkable event in recent world history. The economic turnaround began under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, who had survived Mao’s purges to follow in his footsteps and become the architect of China’s rise as a world power. The hundreds of millions of Chinese who have been lifted out of poverty as a result of Deng’s reforms will in time regard him as a greater hero than Mao.
“But, whatever Mao’s terrible failings, during his years of absolute power there was a sense of common purpose and solidarity that went with shared hardship. Maoism was a curious and unique mixture of class warfare and socialist leveling, all enunciated by a man who belied that individuals – or at least Mao himself – could shape history rather than be formed by its tides and currents.
“This creed has clearly not survived its creator. Pragmatism with a Leninist face is the order of the day. The glories of getting rich have overwhelmed the deprivations of patriotic self-sacrifice. Mao made China proud. Deng made it prosperous.
“What happens next? For all our sakes, I hope that the future does not derail China’s economic progress, though it will be a surprise if it does not challenge its arthritic and adamantine political system.”
Want to look at the future? Focus on the year 2012, when Hu Jintao steps down. He wants to leave a historic legacy and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that reunification, not just better relations, with Taiwan is in the cards. Taiwan, though, would have to give up its independence and accept a status such as that given Hong Kong and Macau.
Germany: German Chancellor Angela Merkel won reelection and will now fuse two parties, the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats, into a single program of what some have called progressive conservatism, or as Roger Boyes wrote in the Irish Times, “concern for social justice, a taste for financial regulation, but also a commitment to open markets, deregulation and (when market conditions permit) privatization."
One winner is France, as President Nicolas Sarkozy seeks a closer alliance with Germany, while a loser is Turkey, as the Social Democrats are in opposition to it gaining entry into the EU.
[As an aside, there are concerns al-Qaeda is targeting Munich’s Oktoberfest, particularly as six videos on al-Qaeda linked Web sites warned against the reelection of Merkel.]
Russia: A European Union investigation of the war in Georgia concludes that Georgia ignited it by attacking separatists in South Ossetia, but that Russia “went far beyond the reasonable limits of defense” in undertaking a drive outside South Ossetia that violated international law and was “not even remotely commensurate with the threat to Russian peacekeepers.” The report also said Russia allowed “ethnic cleansing” in Georgian villages and that the war “was the culminating point of months and years of mounting tensions.”
Both sides claimed the report exonerated them, while Russia has begun maneuvering ships to Abkhazia, the other breakaway republic. Chances of renewed conflict are high.
Honduras: Ousted President Manuel Zelaya continues to be holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in the capital of Tegucigalpa, while about 50 of his supporters have been arrested, as the standoff with the de facto government of Robert Micheletti continues.
[Brazil itself is facing criticism for shielding Zelaya and allowing its embassy to be used as a political platform.]
Guinea: As if the world didn’t already have enough dirtballs to deal with, over 150 pro-democracy demonstrators were killed as the people of this West African nation increased pressure on the military regime. Numerous witnesses reported soldiers raped women in the streets and bayoneted victims.
Ireland: This column is being posted prior to the results of Ireland’s second vote on the Lisbon Treaty so I’ll have a few comments on this, and my trip, next time.
–First off, I have no problem with President Obama going to Copenhagen to press the case for Chicago and the 2016 Olympics. To his critics, c’mon, the guy is from there, for crying out loud. If he wasn’t it’s a bit of a different story but all leaders now attend these final selection gatherings of the International Olympic Committee.
Once again, however, Obama was incredibly ill-served by his staff who allowed their man to walk into an ambush.
Oh, sure, the members of the IOC treated him like a rock star, only to stab him in the back once their pictures with the president had been downloaded.
But the staff should have done their homework on past IOC votes, let alone the nasty politics behind the scenes involving the IOC and the US Olympic Committee. Chicago essentially got the same vote New York did four years earlier.
In the end, however, Rio was the right choice because South America deserves to hold the spectacle, if there has to be one. And once again the world has also witnessed the power of the continent’s greatest athlete of his century, Pele.
Look, I wrote more than once that Chicago doesn’t really want the Games and as it turned out support was lukewarm at best among the people living there, just 50%. Compare that to a nation such as Brazil going bonkers over their selection. Good for them.
As for Obama himself, Tim Reid of the London Times summed it up best.
“There has been a growing narrative taking hold about Barack Obama’s presidency in recent weeks: that he is loved by many, but feared by none; that he is full of lofty vision, but is actually achieving nothing with his grandiloquence.”
What Mr. Reid could have easily written is “that he is loved by many, even though he really couldn’t care less about them.” It’s that ‘coldness’ Peggy Noonan wrote of the other week. But the real test in my eyes is Iran and how Obama ends up handling this crisis. Let’s just say he has given me zero reason thus far to be optimistic.
–The arrest of film director Roman Polanski in Switzerland, more than three decades after his 1978 sentencing for admitting to having sex with an underage girl, has created quite a firestorm on both sides of the issue. Then again, it seems pretty one-sided to me.
Los Angeles County Dist. Atty. Steve Cooley said, “It’s about completing justice. Justice is not complete when someone leaves the jurisdiction of the court.” Cooley in particular addressed the description by movie mogul Harvey Weinstein that Polanski’s admission he had sex with a 13-year-old girl was just a “so-called crime.”
“Mr. Polanski pled guilty to a crime, so apparently Mr. Polanski believes there’s a crime,” said Cooley. “There are still five or six other much more serious charges pending that have yet to be resolved.”
[The U.S. has 60 days to send its formal extradition request to Swiss authorities.]
Incredibly (or maybe not so), Hollywood’s elite largely leapt to Polanski’s defense in calling for him to be freed. They just don’t get it.
Editorial / Washington Post
“First, there was: ‘He’s a brilliant guy, and he made a little mistake 32 years ago.’ Next came: ‘Whatever you think about the so-called crime…it is a shocking way to treat such a man.’ And, then: ‘I know it wasn’t rape-rape. It was something else, but I don’t believe it was rape-rape.’
“Roman Polanski’s apologists – as typified by the comments of Swiss filmmaker Otto Weisser, Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, film and TV celebrity Whoopi Goldberg – don’t let basic facts, or even simply decency for that matter, get in the way of their defense of this notorious director. Ever since Mr. Polanski’s arrest Saturday in Switzerland on a fugitive warrant in a case involving sex with a 13-year-old girl, a number of Hollywood luminaries – Martin Scorsese, Jonathan Demme, David Lynch, to name but a few – are demanding his release. This follows the equally misguided defense of Mr. Polanski by European political and cultural authorities. Thankfully, a backlash is developing, fueled by the public getting a clear understanding of Mr. Polanski’s sordid crime and his cowardice in evading justice.
“What matters is not that Mr. Polanski is 76 or that he has a talent for filmmaking or that his own life has been filled with unspeakable horrors or that the case is decades old. It doesn’t even matter that his underage victim, now grown up, forgives him. What matters is that this man admitted to having sex with a 13-year-old whose undisputed testimony details how he gave her champagne and Quaaludes, got her naked in a hot tub and wouldn’t listen as she – terrified – said no. He was originally charged with sodomy and rape but agreed to plead to a lesser offense. He jumped bail and fled the country out of fear the judge would give him more prison time than the paltry 42 days supposedly promised by prosecutors.”
“How can Hollywood (where it’s almost impossible to find anyone publicly condemning Polanski) and almost everyone else see the same story in an opposite light? Is it proof that the movie business is amoral, or just that it believes that Polanski has suffered in his personal and professional life and paid his debt to society? Is Hollywood’s position that we’re-better-than-you elitist while the rest of the country is everybody-obeys-the-law populist?”
“Roman Polanski was arrested on Saturday at the Zurich airport on an American-issued warrant. But to hear the protests from the French, the Poles and other Europeans, you might have thought the filmmaker was seized by some totalitarian regime for speaking truth to power.
“ ‘Judicial lynching,’ said Jack Lang, the former French culture minister. ‘Absolutely horrifying,’ echoed the current French culture minister, Frederic Mitterrand. ‘Provocation!’ shouted Andrzej Wajda and other Polish filmmakers….
“But hold on a moment. After being indicted in 1977, didn’t Mr. Polanski confess to having sex with a 13-year-old girl after plying her with Quaaludes and Champagne? Didn’t he flee the United States when the plea bargaining seemed to fall apart, raising the prospect of prison time? Isn’t there a warrant for his arrest?….
“(Where) is the injustice in bringing to justice someone who pleads guilty to statutory rape and then goes on the lam, no matter how talented he may be?….
“It is about an adult preying on a child. Mr. Polanski pleaded guilty to that crime and must account for it.”
–Interesting comment by New York Times columnist David Brooks, who is certainly right of center on most issues.
“(No) matter how often their hollowness is exposed, the jocks still reweave the myth of their own power. They still ride the airwaves claiming to speak for millions. They still confuse listeners with voters. And they are aided in this endeavor by their enablers. They are enabled by cynical Democrats, who love to claim that Rush Limbaugh controls the G.O.P. They are enabled by lazy pundits who find it easier to argue with showmen than with people whose opinions are based on knowledge. They are enabled by the slightly educated snobs who believe that Glenn Beck really is the voice of Middle America.
“So the myth returns. Just months after the election and the humiliation, everyone is again convinced that Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity and the rest possess real power. And the saddest thing is that even Republican politicians come to believe it. They mistake media for reality. They preemptively surrender to armies that don’t exist.
“They pay more attention to Rush’s imaginary millions than to the real voters down the street. The Republican Party is unpopular because it’s more interested in pleasing Rush’s ghosts than actual people. The party is leaderless right now because nobody has the guts to step outside the rigid parameters enforced by the radio jocks and create a new party identity. The party is losing because it has adopted a radio entertainer’s niche-building strategy, while abandoning the politician’s coalition-building strategy.
“The rise of Beck, Hannity, Bill O’Reilly and the rest has correlated almost perfectly with the decline of the G.O.P. But it’s not because the talk jocks have real power. It’s because they have illusory power, because Republicans hear the media mythology and fall for it every time.”
–Sarah Palin received a $7 million advance on her 400-page memoir and her tome is already a best seller, even though it’s likely she wrote all of three paragraphs herself. Preorders for the Nov. 17 release have made it No. 1 on Barnes & Noble.com and No. 2 on Amazon, trailing only Dan Brown’s “The Lost Symbol.” Publisher HarperCollins plans a first printing of 1.5 million copies, which supporters will use to refute some of David Brooks’ comments up top in terms of the power of the far right shock jocks.
But in terms of Palin and the lucrative lecture circuit, the New York Post reports:
“Palin’s bookers are said to be asking for $100,000 per speech, but an industry expert tells Page Six: ‘The big lecture buyers in the U.S. are paralyzed with fear about booking her, basically because they think she’s a blithering idiot.’”
Huh. I always thought it was “blathering,” but blithering indeed checks out.
–David Letterman was forced to admit he’s had sexual relations with female employees after a producer with CBS’ “48 Hours” tried to extort $2 million or risk the relationships being made public. Letterman issued a phony check in that amount to the suspect and the arrest followed as part of the Manhattan D.A.’s sting operation.
[The news for Letterman comes as ratings for his show hit their highest levels in years. The first week of the new television season, “Late Show” had 5.04 million viewers vs. just 2.4 million for Conan O’Brien’s “Tonight,” Letterman’s biggest win over “Tonight” since the week of Feb. 24, 1994 (when he followed the Winter Olympics on CBS). Conversely, Conan posted the lowest-rated week for “Tonight” since Letterman joined CBS in 1993. Yikes. And now Conan is in a battle with Newark Mayor Cory Booker over disparaging remarks O’Brien made about the city. No word on whether Conan is sleeping with his staff.]
–President Obama banned 2 million federal employees from texting while driving in an executive order, one of the few good things he’s done since coming into office, not that any of the 2 million will follow the directive. The ban comes after a Transportation Department study showed about 16% of fatal crashes last year involved a driver whose attention was interrupted in some way, up from 11% in 2005.
–We note the passing of that great conservative, William Safire, 79. What a remarkable career he had, including as a speechwriter for Richard Nixon (along with Pat Buchanan), as well as coining phrases for Vice President Spiro T. Agnew such as “nattering nabobs of negativism” and “hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.” Safire for decades after was also the lone conservative (it seemed) on the New York Times editorial page.
Safire was a great reporter and I liked a line colleague Maureen Dowd had in her column on her friend, a word of advice Safire had given her long ago.
“If White House officials (won’t) call you back, leave them a single-word message about what you wanted to talk about: ‘Malfeasance.’”
[I wonder if Safire would have approved of “blithering, blathering boob”?]
–I’ve been ripping New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie and the godawful choice New Jersey voters have in November between himself and incumbent Jon Corzine, so I enjoyed seeing a Wall Street Journal editorial slam Christie as well yesterday.
With Corzine having suddenly pulled within four percentage points, despite a pitiful job approval rating… “the Christie campaign has been largely content-free. His campaign’s idea is to tell the press that he’s attended 120 concerts of Springsteen, who may end up endorsing Mr. Corzine.”
While Christie is known as the anti-corruption candidate off his remarkable record as U.S. Attorney, 41% in my state say the most important issue is “property taxes,” with only 4% citing “corruption.”
“If Mr. Christie has some better ideas for reducing the tax burden in the Garden State, he might share the details with voters. His Web site mentions property and income tax relief but offers no specifics.” And now Christie is losing voters to an independent candidate, Chris Daggett.
“Even if Mr. Christie ekes out a win because Mr. Corzine is so unpopular, the Republican will arrive in Trenton with a mandate to do what he campaigned on – nothing.”
–Paleontologists now say that Lucy, who lived 3.2 million years ago and escaped the subprime disaster, was not the earliest human in terms of walking upright and chewing gum at the same time.
No, now we’ve learned the first one on our family tree is Ardi, who lived in Ethiopia 4.4 million years ago, when the idea of cap-and-trade was, oh, about 4.4 million years in the future, though it seems Ardi also walked on all fours when she felt like it, so you could say she was also the first feminist…an independent sort. Like Helen Reddy. But I digress.
–Nooooooooo! “Eating fish, shown in previous studies to promote heart health, failed to stave off cardiac failure in a study by Dutch researchers.” [Bloomberg News]
This is a shocker to your editor. The analysis, started in 1990 and involving 5,299 men and women over the age of 55 living in a Rotterdam suburb, “found no difference in the risk of developing heart failure between those who ate fish and those who didn’t.”
What to do? After all, I’ve been marking “Salmon Sunday” for years (“Scrod Sunday” since I was no longer able to get wild salmon). And on occasion “Tilapia Tuesday.”
Well, goshdarnit, I’m sticking with my fish regimen, the Dutch be damned.
–Lastly, wasn’t it great to see the 2009 “Man of the Year,” Captain Chesley Sullenberger, back in the cockpit this week flying the same New York to Charlotte route that he last did on Jan. 15? The captain now seems more comfortable with his fame, which is also a nice thing to see, noting at a news conference that the gratitude of passengers has been “an extraordinary gift.” Sully in turn said of his co-pilot, Jeffrey Skiles, who flew with him on Thursday, “You have my eternal gratitude for your skill and your courage.” I still say Sully’s picture should be in every elementary school classroom.
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
Returns for the week 9/28-10/2
Dow Jones -1.8% [9487]
S&P 500 -1.8% [1025]
S&P MidCap -2.2%
Russell 2000 -3.1%
Nasdaq -2.1% [2048]
Returns for the period 1/1/09-10/2/09
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
