Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
The week started with a revelation from a Stanford University professor and nuclear expert, Siegfried S. Hecker, who was shown a new uranium enrichment facility that is part of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex. Hecker wrote that he was blown away by the advanced nature of it, calling it “stunning,” and said it would pass for a new nuclear energy plant in the United States, complete with the latest in centrifuge technology. While his handlers assured him the uranium enrichment taking place was for peaceful purposes only, and North Korea is in dire need of electricity, the facility can quickly be converted to the processing of weapons grade material.
The Obama administration immediately scrambled to say the United States has been aware North Korea was looking to build a uranium enrichment plant of this kind for ten years, and that just a few weeks ago, President Obama had confronted Chinese President Hu Jintao on the topic, but clearly U.S. intelligence was totally blindsided as to the exact site, which is right under their noses, seeing as we have Yongbyon under constant satellite surveillance.
So among the many immediate issues is how does North Korea get the latest in centrifuge technology with all the sanctions that have been arrayed against it, and are there other such facilities hidden away? Plus, most importantly, is North Korea cooperating with the likes of Iran for the purposes of passing on weapons grade material? We already know these two have been sharing all manner of missile technology. Does this mean that Iran’s own problems on the enrichment front (see below) aren’t as important because Iran can just get their enriched uranium from Pyongyang?
South Korea said it shared “grave concerns” with the U.S. over the revelation, while Japan called the development “absolutely unacceptable.” Seoul said it would have to consider basing U.S. nuclear weapons back on its soil, where they haven’t been since 1991.
So this was the big story on the week for the Korean Peninsula…until Tuesday, that is.
Prior to the G20 summit in Seoul, I made the statement that there would be a deadly incident there, precipitated by North Korea as a coming out party for Kim Jong Il’s son and heir apparent, Kim Jong Eun. This didn’t occur. But it turns out I wasn’t so wrong after all because on Tuesday, in the heaviest attack on South Korean soil since the Korean War ended in 1953, North Korea shelled a civilian island, killing two South Korean soldiers and two civilians, as well as exacting heavy property damage on a population of 1,300. The South returned fire, while Washington sent an aircraft carrier and vowed to hold new joint exercises with its ally.
Of course it was just last March that 46 South Korean sailors were killed when their patrol boat was torpedoed by the North (or sunk by a mine) and South Korean President Lee is under increasing pressure in some quarters to fight back, but Lee, and everyone else in the South Korean government, knows that a full-blown conflict between North and South would destroy the Korean economic miracle, let alone kill hundreds of thousands.
Through it all, China, North Korea’s lone ally and sole benefactor (when the West isn’t being blackmailed…as Pyongyang is attempting to do again), has refused to condemn Kim Jong Il’s regime for its action. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said:
“China strongly urges both North and South Korea exercise calm and restraint, and as quickly as possible engage in dialogue and contacts.”
China has long been fearful that North Korea would implode, sending millions of refugees across its border.
“Given Kim Jong Il’s ill health, it is tempting to conclude that the dictator wants to go out in a blaze of suicidal glory. But the North’s behavior is entirely rational given the way it has been rewarded for past misbehavior. Mr. Lee has tried to break that pattern by taking a tougher line, and now the North is testing his, and America’s, resolve….
“The Obama administration deserves credit for tightening the financial screws and developing this important source of leverage. South Korea can add to this financial pressure by finally shutting down the Kaesong industrial complex, a major source of hard currency for the North.
“The U.S. ought to leave no doubt that it will defend South Korea….
“China needs to know that the U.S. can’t tolerate a proliferating North Korea, and that it is prepared to act militarily if other deterrents fail. The Kims believe they can get away with their acts of war because they have never paid a serious price for them. They will continue their assaults until they do.”
“North Korea’s aggression…threatens not only South Korea but Japan, too. Its leadership is as much national-fascist as communist, and has manifested deep hostility to the Japanese, who occupied the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945. In short, Japan is getting real-life experience of what maritime Asia would be like without unipolar American power.
“Here the U.S. administration should expect no respite from Pyongyang. The great Asian proclivity for thinking in terms of the long arc of history is absent in North Korea, the only country in east Asia whose leaders have no strategic vision for the long term. They are obsessed with short-term survival, most clearly expressed by their nuclear program. Precisely because economic liberalization could destabilize the fragile police state, the Kim family knows there is no way to guarantee survival except through a nuclear deterrent.
“America’s fear of North Korea’s ability to proliferate – let alone detonate – a primitive weapon in the face of an invasion is what brings Washington to the bargaining table. The North Koreans know that if Saddam Hussein had nuclear capability in 2003, he and his sons would be in power today. Consequently they have invested much in their program. They risk relations with neighbors South Korea and China precisely because of the program’s centrality to regime survival.”
The European Debt Crisis
These are incredibly depressing times in much of Europe, and the anger is spreading, whether it was a general strike in Portugal (unheard of here), student protests throughout Italy, more student protests in the U.K., planned massive demonstrations in Ireland today, and Spain, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty and inconsistent political leadership. When it comes to the European Union, Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy want you to believe they are leading, and talk about the European bailout mechanism already in place being sufficient to deal with the likes of Greece and Ireland, let alone Portugal and maybe Spain (or Belgium, or Italy, or France), but then they issue conflicting comments on whether the banks will have to take a haircut on their sovereign debt holdings, which German central bank chief Axel Weber says will have to be the case, even as he offers that the bailout fund needs more capital when many Europeans are loath to pony up more aid. Is it any wonder then why borrowing costs for nations like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are going through the roof, at the worst possible time as the governments’ attempt to right their ships?
The crosscurrents in the euro debt crisis are hard to keep track of, they are so numerous, and it will be a wonder to see the 16-nation euro currency union stick together. I don’t see how it possibly can. One or two exiting the euro, such as Greece and/or Ireland, would not be the end of the world, but I’ve always said it’s about the people in each country, and the pressure politicians will be under when their countrymen don’t want to keep bailing out their neighbors, some of whom are historical enemies.
But there is just so much debt sloshing around, much of it still really unknown because of the lack of real transparency in nations such as Greece, and the systemic risks are real and closer to being realized than many of us may understand.
For this past week and next, though, the issue of immediacy remains Ireland, which is hoping to wrap up its bailout package this weekend, even as the tottering government pleads for its austerity program to be passed by parliament when it comes up for a vote on Dec. 7.
The austerity plan is brutal, with the middle class in Ireland getting hit particularly hard, mainly because they are the ones who can withstand the pain. [Many in the “upper class” are insolvent.] Social welfare programs are being slashed to the bone, new taxes of all kinds will be imposed, further public sector job cuts, a 12% cut in the minimum wage, further pension cuts, and all the while the real estate crisis continues unabated. I’ve written this before but it’s still staggering to think that Ireland’s home construction rate at the height of the bubble was 6 times that of the U.K.
But while the Irish government, as fractured as it is today, knows it must pass the plan, the credibility of it is called into question because future projected growth rates simply aren’t dealing with reality. Growth? How the hell are you going to have growth in an economy like this?
Ah, but this is where Ireland has been adamant about keeping its corporate tax rate at 12.5% because the likes of Microsoft, Pfizer and Google employ 240,000 on the Emerald Isle and all the multinationals have made it clear. Any sizable hike in the tax rate and they are out of there. Ireland must export its way out of the depression.
“Ireland is like Iceland. Their banks participated in unwise real estate speculation, and their system is now insolvent. The Irish state knew it had to bail-out its banks, but their balance sheets were large in relation to GDP – exactly the Icelandic dilemma.
“The Irish know that if their banks fail, their liabilities will fall on other European banks, especially in Germany and Britain. Some of those are fragile themselves. A chain reaction and panic in money and bond markets could easily ensue. In other words, another Lehman Brothers.”
Or as PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian wrote, “(The) dramatic events in Ireland are just preambles for the many further chapters yet to be fully devised, let alone written, if crisis is to be averted. Let us hope that these chapters do not end up having to also cover Portugal and Spain.”
Portugal is to release its own austerity plan on Jan. 1, but many question whether they will make it without a bailout before then.
But the big enchilada is Spain, the eurozone’s fourth largest economy. On Friday, Prime Minister Zapotero was issuing the usual denials that Spain doesn’t need a bailout, but to me it’s a certainty. Their housing bubble is of spectacularly mammoth proportions and with the massive amounts of inventory across the country, home prices could tumble another 20%, by some estimates. I’d say that’s a lock. And Spain has 20% unemployment! How the heck is it going to grow more than a percent or two, when it needs growth of five, six and seven percent to pay off its debts and be able to raise future capital at reasonable rates?
Meanwhile, in China, there are fears the inflation situation is beyond the control of the government but I’m here to tell you that is not going to be the case. Some food prices are indeed coming down and I believe unrest can be kept to a minimum. Chinese authorities have also introduced an interesting stamp duty on housing, wherein there is a 15% tax if a property is resold within six months of purchase, down to 5% for 12-24 months. No doubt China’s economy will slow some, but little more than that, assuming tensions ease on the Korean Peninsula and that’s an admittedly big ‘if’.
As for the U.S., the economic news was mixed, as were the equity markets. New- and existing-home sales for October were awful, with the median price dipping anew (though still above the spring 2009 lows), and the durable goods figure for October was well below estimates.
But on the plus side, third quarter GDP was revised up to 2.5% (though still far short of the growth we need to put a dent in the unemployment rate), while the October personal income and consumption figures were pretty good, and the holiday shopping season appears to have gotten off to a good start. [I’m not negative in this regard like I have been the past few years.]
The thing is that you still have the situation with state and local governments continuing to cut to the bone, which means further job losses, and as Meredith Whitney projected, U.S. banks will be closing 5,000 branches the next 18 months, and possibly 10,000 by 2015; for one reason because there are fewer and fewer “bankable” customers.
And when the new Congress gets to work in January, they better come up with a credible fiscal package or the United States will find itself in a euro-like situation, possibly as soon as 2012.
“The problem is not reducing the deficit. It is controlling spending in a way that seems socially just, economically sensible and politically tolerable. If we are honest – neither party has been – it means asking how much we allow benefits for the old to burden the young through higher taxes, lower public services, slower economic growth and weakened national security.
“Any genuine debate must be wrenching because government has promised more than it can realistically deliver, and lower benefits or higher taxes will leave many feeling (justifiably) mistreated. No one would be happy. Liberals would have to accept sizable benefit cuts; conservatives, tax increases.
“Recognizing this logic, America’s leaders have averted their eyes and held their tongues. President Obama continues this inglorious avoidance. His Obamacare actually made matters worse by increasing the least controllable spending. The initial reception to Bowles-Simpson has been predictably tepid. But even if it passed Congress, it would only be a first step.”
Street Bytes
–Stocks finished mixed, with the Dow Jones down 1% to 11092, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.9% and Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Considering the dual crises of Korea and Europe, not bad…not bad at all.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 0.20% 2-yr. 0.51% 10-yr. 2.87% 30-yr. 4.21%
–The Street was rocked as the Raj Rajaratnam / Galleon Group insider trading case spread. A 3-year investigation led this week into the raiding of three large hedge funds’ offices as well as the arrest of a technology expert, Don Chu, who was charged with conspiracy to commit securities fraud and wire fraud. The feds are also looking at some big firms in the mutual fund industry, including Janus Group and Wellington Management Co., and they have their eye on high-frequency trading as well.
It was back in October that U.S. attorney Preet Bharara gave a speech wherein he warned “illegal insider trading is rampant and may even be on the rise,” adding:
“Disturbingly, many of the people who are going to such lengths to obtain inside information for a trading advantage are already among the most advantaged, privileged and wealthy insiders in modern finance. But for them, material nonpublic information is akin to a performance-enhancing drug that provides the illegal ‘edge’ to outpace their rivals and make even more money.”
The hedge funds targeted thus far in raids have a common thread. Key managers in the shops once worked for Steven A. Cohen’s giant SAC Capital Advisors LP fund, and SAC has received a broad subpoena for documents as the probe widens. There are wiretaps and as John Coffee, a securities law professor at Columbia University, said, “Everyone in the hedge-fund industry is now trembling, wondering whether anything they said over the phone could be seen as incriminating.”
But just what is the Fed defining as “insider trading”? Fourteen pleaded guilty in the Galleon case and founder Rajaratnam is slated for trial next year. Allegations that SAC or its former traders have used illegal stock tips have surfaced in court cases. One pleading guilty in the Galleon case worked as an analyst at SAC from 1999 to 2004. In another case involving a former mergers and acquisition director at UBS, the government’s star witness listed among six people to whom he leaked stock tips another analyst at SAC.
For his part, though, Don Chu is an example of the expert-network consultants who put traders in touch with industry experts on a ‘real-time’ basis. Federal prosecutors allege Chu arranged for a hedge fund trader to obtain revenue, sales and margin figures from an unnamed official at a publicly traded technology firm several hours before the figures were formally announced. The hedge fund trader in question already pleaded guilty in the Galleon Group case.
And back to the Rajaratnam case, in a big victory for prosecutor Bharara, a federal judge ruled that thousands of wiretapped conversations can be used as evidence. Boy, if you had business with Galleon, you’re [wetting your pants].
–Henry “Hank” Morris, a once powerful Democratic political consultant, pleaded guilty to a felony securities-fraud charge and admitted that he played a central role in a pay-to-play scheme centering around New York State’s $125 billion pension fund. Morris acknowledged using his ties to former state Comptroller Alan Hevesi to get millions in payouts for himself and to solicit campaign contributions for Hevesi from firms seeking state business. Morris faces up to four years in prison. Hevesi and five other officials have already pleaded guilty in Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s probe. Others have paid millions in penalties without admitting any criminal responsibility.
Morris is important because he is the central figure in Cuomo’s attempt to nail the Quadrangle Group, then run by former Obama car czar Steven Rattner. Quadrangle secured a $150 million pension fund deal after agreeing to pay Morris $1 million in “placement” fees, according to authorities. As noted last time, Rattner agreed to a $6.2 million fine and a two-year ban from the securities industry to settle an SEC probe, while Quadrangle agreed to a $12 million fine.
But Cuomo wants Rattner to accept a lifetime ban from the securities industry and pay $26 million in penalties, and Rattner told Charlie Rose, “What the attorney general’s done is close to extortion…because he has basically threatened me all along the way that if I don’t do what he wants me to do he will prosecute me to the ends of the earth, basically.”
Cuomo is focusing on an allegation that Rattner accepted a $150 million investment in Quadrangle Group from the chief investment officer of the New York Common Retirement Fund in exchange for Rattner’s help in distributing a film for the guy.
–Tiffany reported strong early demand for the holiday season, a good sign. CEO Michael Kowalski said “sales growth is exceeding our expectations, although the majority of the holiday season is certainly still ahead of us.” November and December account for a third of Tiffany’s annual sales.
–General Motors said the Chevy Volt will get the equivalent of 93 miles per gallon of gasoline in combined city and highway driving while powered by its batteries. The car goes 35 miles on battery power before the gas engine kicks in to generate electricity, whereupon it gets 37 mpg when running on the generator alone. When combining battery and generator power, the car should get 60 mpg. All of these figures will appear on the window sticker when the Volt goes on sale next month. Initially, GM said the Volt would get an equivalent of 230 miles per gallon in city driving, but the company had to back off on the claim.
The mileage will vary drastically depending on how often the car is used. For example, if it’s driven less than 35 or 40 miles a day, and is recharged at night, the car would use zero gas. In full electric mode, the car will get 90-95 mpg, both city and on the highway. Including the miles traveled on battery power, the total range on a tank of gas is 379 miles. The Volt will have a sticker price of $41,000, while Nissan’s similar Leaf vehicle will sell for $32,780. Both qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit.
–Canada’s consumer price index rose 2.4% in October, with the core rate at 1.8%, both a little hotter than projected. Retail sales advanced a fourth straight month.
–Japan secured a tentative agreement with an Australian company, Lynas, to buy rare earth minerals, this after China temporarily cut off its supply to Japan, China controlling 97% of the global supply of materials used in the manufacturing of electronic products and military equipment, among other things. I’m a little familiar with Lynas, however, and I’m not sure it will be ready to produce the rare earths as quickly as it told Japan (like next year), though admittedly this agreement should more than kick-start the venture. An interesting area, to say the least. I began to nibble on a rare earth company myself a few weeks ago with Russian (old Soviet Union) connections.
–Funding for clean energy start-ups has been plummeting as government support dries up, even as the same political leaders prepare for a big summit on climate change in Cancun this week. Government subsidies, such as in Spain for wind and solar producers, have been slashed amid budget turmoil. On the other hand, some of the programs had led to unsustainable bubbles and ill-conceived or fraudulent projects in the sector.
–SAP AG, the world’s largest maker of business software, was ordered to pay $1.3 billion to Oracle to settle the copyright infringement suit resulting from SAP’s acquisition of its now-defunct software maintenance unit, TomorrowNow, which was accused of making hundreds of thousands of illegal downloads as well as thousands of copies of Oracle’s software to avoid paying licensing fees and stealing customers. SAP said it may yet appeal the judgment. SAP had claimed the damages were more like $40 million while Oracle first asked for $1.7 billion. So, score a big one for Oracle.
–Meanwhile, former SAP CEO Leo Apotheker, now at Hewlett-Packard, was able to report that HP’s earnings beat Wall Street’s estimates on strong corporate demand despite soft consumer sales, though its future guidance was so-so. Apotheker managed to avoid appearing at the Oracle-SAP proceedings. Oracle attempted to subpoena him, but HP’s lawyers said they couldn’t find him. ‘That’s funny. He was here an hour ago.’
–Qantas announced its fleet of A380 superjumbos will start returning to service by the end of the week, Saturday. Executives said they were comfortable all issues have been addressed following the near mid-air disaster of November 4.
–Meanwhile, Boeing is having to reengineer portions of the electric system on its new Dreamliner aircraft following an in-flight fire aboard a test plane. Dreamliner is already three years behind schedule and no telling what this latest setback means in terms of the first deliveries that had been moved out to early 2011.
–Deflation Alert: According to the sports business outlet Team Marketing Report, the average price of a nonpremium seat to an NBA game dropped 2.5% this year to $48, this after a 2.8% decrease the prior season. Detroit’s nonpremium ticket prices dropped 10%.
–Speaking of the NBA, prospects of a lockout next fall, as well as a strike in the NFL, are very real. The economic impact on cities with franchises would be huge (including restaurant and bar traffic). Imagine the interest in college football and basketball, though, should this come to pass.
[Speaking of college football…how the heck could Boise State lose last night? Drat!]
–I saw this item in the Star-Ledger and just found it pretty startling. As reported by Eliot Caroom:
“In the first three months of red light cameras ticketing in Linden (N.J.), almost 20,000 tickets were mailed to drivers, and the cash-strapped city collected $800,000 in fines, city officials said.”
That’s awesome! The fines appear to vary from $85 to $140. And on top of the $804,000 collected for August, September and October, drivers also paid out $11.50 per ticket to the state, and another 10% to the camera company, America Traffic Solutions, “which reviews video and still photos of red light infractions and sends them to Linden police for review.”
I love it. [But in case you’re wondering, I just checked. ATS is privately held.]
–Deflation, part deux: Consumer prices in Japan fell for a 20th consecutive month.
–Officials in Naples, Italy spent almost $1 million in EU subsidies to stage an Elton John concert. Upon learning this, the European Union said it would deduct a like amount from future payments to Italy. Some of the money no doubt filtered into the hands of the Camorra crime syndicate that controls the region.
–Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times wrote a scathing piece on Monex, the Newport Beach, Ca., investment firm that bills itself as “America’s trusted name in precious metals investments.” But some recent lawsuits claim $hundreds of thousands in losses, this while gold and silver have been on a virtually uninterrupted 10-year bull run.
It’s about the use of margin and trading accounts and this is far from the first time Monex has been cited. In 2008, the IRS filed a case in Los Angeles federal courts seeking more than $378 million in taxes, interest and penalties dating at least to the 1980s, much of the tax due from what the government claims were “abusive” tax shelters on which Monex claimed tax losses. As far back as 1974, the SEC accused founder Louis E. Carabini and the Pacific Coast Coin Exchange, a Monex predecessor, of having obtained $1 billion from the public through sham sales of silver coins on margin.
Monex uses leverage, lots of it, and pesters clients with tons of daily phone calls and text messages. But as Hiltzik writes:
“I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that these are good times for Monex, given the unsettled economic environment. But it’s hard to comprehend why anyone would invest with Monex after reading its margin account agreement.
“The document states that the firm owes ‘no fiduciary duty’ to the customer, its various fees and charges can produce a loss for the customer even if the price of the investment commodity moves in his or her favor, and the customer should ‘assume’ that the interests of the firm and its account representatives ‘conflict with the interests of the Customer.’ It says Monex can set its own prices for precious metals regardless of any other published market prices, and it can change them all day long if it pleases.”
Separately, the Journal had a story on Friday on the marketing success of the World Gold Council in getting the masses to invest in the shiny metal, particularly in the case of GLD, the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund launched in Nov. 2004 that is now in excess of $56 billion. GLD is taking in $30 million of gold daily, stored in a London vault, which holds “six months’ worth of the world’s entire gold-mining production.” Of course the size could work against it should the trend in gold prices reverse.
–Commenting on the BP oil spill claims process, which is being roundly criticized, Tony Kennon, the mayor of Orange Beach, Ala., where I spent a week this summer, said the spill has been “absolutely devastating here. We are in the middle of a depression. This isn’t a recession, it is an economic shutdown.” But I suspect tourism will rebound strongly next summer in these parts as long as the economy is growing at even a 2 to 3 percent clip.
–The city of Newark, N.J. represents a classic example of the dilemma faced by state and local governments. The city has a $9.5 million budget gap and the police were asked to work five unpaid days and get less overtime or Mayor Cory Booker would be forced to fire 167 rookie cops. The police said no and it all comes to a head this coming week.
–Talk about easy hours…I didn’t realize that trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange starts at 10:00 a.m. and breaks at 12:30 p.m. for two hours before closing the day at 4:00 p.m. So it’s open only four hours. Shanghai starts at 9:30 a.m. and then pauses for 90 minutes, with an afternoon session from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. This all came up because Hong Kong next spring will start trading at 9:30 a.m. and cut its lunch break 30 minutes earlier. Then in March 2012, the lunch break will be cut to an hour. The reason for all the changes is to get better aligned with the other exchanges in the region. Of course markets in the U.S. and Europe don’t close for lunch.
–J. Crew announced it would be taken private in a $3 billion transaction with two investment firms. The deal, pending approvals, is priced at $43.50 a share, a 16% premium to the stock’s close before the announcement, but down from a 52-week high of $51. Highly-regarded CEO Mickey Drexler will remain in that role.
–The seventh Harry Potterfilm opened to $330 million in global ticket sales the first weekend! Good lord.
–The Associated Press commissioned a test of the levels of cadmium and lead in drinking glasses depicting comic book and movie characters such as Superman and Wonder Woman and found the levels of lead were up to 1,000 times the federal limits. [There are no specific limits on cadmium which is more dangerous.] The glasses were made in China and purchased at a Warner Brothers Studios store in Burbank. It was this summer that McDonald’s recalled 12 million glasses because cadmium escaped from designs depicting characters in the latest “Shrek” movie.
–Apple Inc. said people are snapping up Beatles songs and albums at a brisk clip; like over two million individual songs and 450,000 copies of Beatles albums in the first week they were on sale at iTunes. “Abbey Road” is the best-selling album and “Here Comes the Sun” the best individual track.
Foreign Affairs
Afghanistan: At the NATO summit in Lisbon last weekend, the coalition agreed to start turning parts of Afghanistan over to Afghan security forces and the army this spring, with the transition to be completed by the end of 2014 (while also securing Russia’s promise to cooperate in a Europe-based missile defense program).
At the same time, however, tensions between the White House and President Hamid Karzai continue to simmer as President Obama basically told Karzai to cool it with the criticism of U.S. actions in his country, particularly the night raids that are so critical to the counter insurgency efforts of Gen. David Petraeus. At least with the new timetable, extending Obama’s summer of 2011 for major withdrawals all the way out to 2014, that takes some pressure off Petraeus when it comes to defending current Afghan policy during the December review.
But we also learned this week that perhaps talk of progress in the Afghan theater has been largely a bunch of bull. It came to light that for months, the supposed ‘secret talks’ between Taliban and Afghan leaders were actually being conducted with a Taliban imposter, a man playing the role of Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, one of the Taliban’s most senior commanders. The fake leader was given significant sums of money and even flown to Kabul on a NATO aircraft and ushered into the presidential palace. This is beyond embarrassing.
U.S. officials said they were skeptical of the fellow’s identity from day one, but at the same time none other than Gen. Petraeus was saying that the talks indicated the Taliban was willing to discuss an end to conflict. For its part, at least CIA Director Leon Panetta during this same period was voicing skepticism the Taliban was serious.
And at week’s end we learned that responsibility for this fiasco lies at the feet of British Intelligence. As reported by the London Times:
“An investigation…can reveal that British agents paid Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour from May this year, promoting him as a genuine Taliban figure of the highest standing who was capable of negotiating with senior American and Afghan officials.
“But according to officials…he was uncovered this month as a fraudster…Far from being a former Taliban government minister, the individual concerned is now thought to have been a shopkeeper, a minor Taliban commander, or simply a well-connected chancer from the Pakistani border city of Quetta.
“A senior Afghan government official said yesterday: ‘British Intelligence was naïve and there was wishful thinking on our part.’
“One source with knowledge of the affair described it as simply ‘a major f***-up.’”
A former U.S. official in Kandahar (now retired) said of the Brits, “senior U.S. military always felt that their British comrades in arms might outrun their headlights on reconciliation unless reined in.”
[Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government rejected a U.S. request to expand the area targeting Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders with its drone attacks. A Foreign Ministry official said, “We are allies of the United States in the war against terror. However, Pakistan will not compromise on sovereignty.”]
Iraq: Nouri al-Maliki was formally named Prime Minister for a second term and given 30 days to form a new government, as expected, but Maliki doesn’t become prime minister again without the support of hardline cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who threw his bloc of seats behind Maliki, enabling the prime minister to overcome the fact that Ayad Allawi actually captured more seats in the March election. So while Vice President Joe Biden penned an absolutely pathetic opinion piece in the New York Times, touting U.S. success in Iraq, a man, Sadr, who was responsible for hundreds, if not thousands, of U.S. deaths during those chaotic first four years until the surge took hold, is using his Iranian influence to extract all manner of concessions from Maliki, including the release of hundreds of members of Sadr’s Mahdi Army from prison. And Sadr supporters are finding positions at the highest levels of Iraq’s Interior Ministry, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
Yet there was Vice President Biden writing in the New York Times:
“Over the six visits I have made to Iraq since January 2009, I have seen the remarkable progress its police and soldiers have made. Iraq today is far safer and more stable than at any time since the outbreak of war in 2003.”
Biden then goes on to rattle off some stats and tout the work of Iraqi security forces in capturing dozens of senior leaders of Al Qaeda in Iraq and other terrorist groups. Yes, the number of violent incidents is down since 2007.
But, incredibly, Biden doesn’t mention that in just the past few months, Christians were slaughtered and the remaining few are fleeing Iraq. And that now Iran’s main acolyte, Sadr, is flooding the new government with his supporters, many of whom have American blood on their hands.
Draw your own conclusions on whether the United States has essentially won the war here, as the vice president and president will continue to propagandize. By the above two stated facts, I’ve drawn my own.
Iran: While the Free World now wonders just how much cooperation is really taking place between North Korea and Iran on the nuclear weapons front, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran’s parliament was seeking to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over his running of the economy amid claims of corruption, but was prevented from doing so by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Journal found that “four prominent lawmakers laid out the most extensive public criticism of Mr. Ahmadinejad to date.”
“They accused him and his government of 14 counts of violating the law, often by acting without the approval of the legislature. Charges include illegally importing gasoline and oil, failing to provide budgetary transparency and withdrawing millions of dollars from Iran’s foreign reserve fund without getting parliament’s approval.”
The economy is suffering under the weight of the sanctions and there are real concerns of social unrest. [Good.]
But back to Iran’s nuclear program, there are growing signs the Stuxnet computer worm did indeed work its magic at the primary Natanz facility (I was right on this way back, by the way…it was Natanz, not Bushehr, as most reported initially, that was the real target of the virus). The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran has suffered a setback there and that over 5,000 centrifuges (a lower caliber than what North Korea has in its just revealed facility) are idle.
Israel: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he would return to the negotiations only if Israel declared a complete settlement freeze, prompting one Israeli official to say “It is almost as if (Abbas) is searching for excuses not to negotiate,” while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is now apparently unwilling to pledge to wrap up an agreement on borders during the 90-day period a new freeze is put in place, per an agreement with the U.S.
But at the same time, Israel wanted a U.S. agreement in writing, which is beyond insulting, as Washington doesn’t want to commit to the 90-day freeze being the last it would ask for if the border issue was not wrapped up during this time. This while Defense Minister Ehud Barak says it may be necessary to change the governing coalition if negotiations are to start anew. And former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert blasted Netanyahu for not agreeing to a U.S. demand to extend the settlement freeze. Not that Olmert agrees with the freeze concept, but he said it was absurd to turn down a request from Israel’s closest ally and thus endanger ties.
But earlier, Israel’s parliament passed a bill requiring a 2/3s majority in the Knesset before any withdrawal from the Golan Heights or East Jerusalem can be approved, in a move designed to complicate peace efforts by making it more difficult for any Israeli government to make territorial withdrawals. [Failing the 2/3s, it goes to a national referendum.] Of course Syria claims the Golan Heights and the Palestinians East Jerusalem.
“Israel has been known to game its allies to get its hands on the best military gear, whether German-made submarines or American combat jets.
“But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have overplayed his hand and risked the empathy Israel always enjoys in Washington.
“Netanyahu doomed peace talks with the Palestinian Authority before they could bear fruit, deliberately allowing a 10-month moratorium on Jewish settlement construction to expire even though Arab leaders made clear they wouldn’t negotiate unless it was extended.
“To regain momentum, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton offered Netanyahu a series of incentives to extend the freeze, with the understood aim that time would be used to define future borders of the Palestinian State. Netanyahu agreed to support an extended freeze that would not include Jerusalem, and only on condition that guarantees are in writing.
“The mere suggestion that Israel won’t take America’s word without a written promise is both shocking and insulting. But the administration is willing to take the step to advance its peacemaking efforts.
“But Netanyahu also ignored Clinton’s request to keep mum on incentives. Instead, his advisers leaked misleading messages. Among the tidbits leaked was an offer for more Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, with the implication that the planes would come to Israel free of charge.
“The leaks damaged the good faith that has always sustained the alliance.
“Now Netanyahu hopes that through promises that are grandiose and bordering on falsehood, he can convince the rest of his hard-line coalition to go along with a settlement freeze….
“Many believe the Arab-Israeli conflict is at the heart of the Islamic world’s grievance with the West. As U.S. troops continue to die fighting extremists in places like Afghanistan, Americans will press for an end to what has been billed as endless wars. In Lisbon last week, officials from the United States and its NATO allies set 2014 as the year they end their combat role in Afghanistan.
“It’s time Israel view its future strategically. As a tiny country surrounded by foes or reluctant allies, it needs as many friends as it can get, and can’t afford to further alienate its staunchest ally.”
Finally, Newsweek’s Dan Ephron had a scary piece concerning the Israeli Army; as in it is increasingly peopled with religious Jews who are not only extraordinarily accommodated, but would threaten any peace agreement with the Palestinians because part of any deal would be the removal of some Israeli settlements and there could be mass insubordination on the part of these very same soldiers when asked to do so. An Israeli defense journal, Maarachot, reported in recent years that some 30% of graduates from the infantry officers’ course have defined themselves as “Zionist-religious,” up from only 2.5% 20 years ago. [About 12% of the general Israeli population chooses this label.]
Lebanon: Prime Minister Saad Hariri is visiting Iran today, Saturday, seeking Tehran’s help in preventing tensions from boiling over once the U.N.’s Special Tribunal for Lebanon on the 2005 assassination of Saad’s father issues its indictments by early next year, with the feeling being that some members of Hizbullah face charges. Saudi Arabia and Syria have been working aggressively on their ends to prevent the indictments from being used as cover by Hizbullah for launching a takeover of the Lebanese government. It was last month that Ahmadinejad, in a trip to Lebanon, made a high profile tour of Hizbullah strongholds near the Israeli border.
Michael Young, editorial page editor at the Daily Star, commented on this week’s Canadian Broadcasting Corporation documentary on the assassination and the “compelling evidence of Hizbullah’s alleged involvement.” Young (my friend in Beirut) wonders if special prosecutor Daniel Bellemare has enough evidence to make the indictments stick. A pretrial judge must first sign off on them. Thus far, Mr. Young’s knowledge of the case leads one to believe Bellemare has a very tough case to prove and that much of the evidence is circumstantial.
“For Bellemare to win his case, he will need to peel back the many layers and identify who did what when, and who said what to whom. He will need to shed light on significant segments of the crime to expose the whole. The most effective way of doing so is to have suspects in hand willing to spill the beans, and physical or documentary evidence to lend credence to what they say. But to prosecute a complex political killing by relying heavily on conclusions reached through deduction against suspects most or all of whom are not in court can only favor the defense….
“Most worrisome is that UN ineptitude or manipulation may have already undermined the possibility of a successful prosecution, when or if the trial ever begins.”
China: The government is preventing the wife of jailed Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo from traveling to Oslo to accept the award on his behalf. To provide some context on this, consider that the old Soviet Union allowed Andrei Sakharov’s wife to collect the award, even as he was barred. Polish authorities allowed Lech Walesa’s wife to travel on his behalf in 1983. And the son of Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was allowed to deliver an acceptance speech.
Yet Liu’s wife, Liu Xia, not only is not being allowed to travel to the December 10 ceremony, but she hasn’t been allowed to talk. And now it looks like the Nobel committee may postpone the event seeing as how hostile China’s reaction is. The government mouthpiece People’s Daily editorialized earlier:
“Awarding the Nobel peace prize to Liu Xiaobo once again reflects the strong attempts of Western countries to intervene in the political process in China. It is a well-planned event, premeditated and long organized by Western countries, and is part of a series of actions by the U.S. and its allies and companies to undermine China.”
India: New Delhi has suddenly deployed two new army divisions, 36,000 troops, to the remote northeast border region that China has long claimed parts of. All are specially equipped for mountain warfare. India says the moves are in response to a huge Chinese buildup in Tibet.
Japan: Similar to India’s action, Japan is now thinking of stationing troops on some remote islands near China after Beijing’s handling of recent tensions concerning the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which has hardened the attitudes of Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his cabinet. Just this week, two Chinese fisheries patrol vessels were spotted off one of the Diaoyus (which Japan calls the Senkakus). One well-connected Japanese source told the South China Morning Post:
“There is a strong sense now that Japan has to react to an aggressive change in China’s foreign policies. What is Japan’s leverage to deal with China? That is what we are talking about now. As China grows and becomes stronger, we can see that the main leverage we will have left is military.”
Cambodia: Just an awful human tragedy as at least 378 were killed in a stampede during a festival to mark the end of the rainy season. Thousands panicked on a pedestrian bridge, which may have started swaying as it was designed to do. It was mass suffocation as thousands sought to flee the bridge.
New Zealand: And there was tremendous grief here as 29 miners died. There had been some hope at least a few would be rescued, but then a second tremendous explosion sealed their fate. Sadly, family members were initially buoyed by the example of the Chilean miners.
Mexico: A survey here reveals that 49% consider the offensive against the drug cartels to have failed, compared with just 33% who see it as a success. Last March, the same poll revealed 47% thought the drug war a success, 36% a failure.
Random Musings
–The Pentagon has warned the White House, which in turn has alerted Congress and diplomatic offices around the world, that WikiLeaks is preparing to release sensitive U.S. cables and files that could severely damage U.S. relations with friends and allies. As opposed to the Iraq War leaks that were from the Bush administration, the cables are said to be from the start of Obama’s term. Some of them could contain detailed conversations in which senior foreign politicians offer candid appraisals of their governments. Diplomats could be exposed divulging embassy activities or analyses that will not go over well in the home countries.
WikiLeaks recently posted: “The coming months will see a new world, where global history is redefined.”
–A proposal drafted by the Department of Homeland Security urges a shift from the color-coded terrorism-alert system to more specific advisories that would provide more “actionable information based on the latest intelligence,” as a senior Homeland Security official told the Washington Post.
–A poll by Zogby International found that 61% of likely voters oppose the newly enhanced security measures at the nation’s airports. 48% said they would seek alternatives to flying, though I imagine this figure will go way down over time. In a separate USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, 57% of adult fliers said they were bothered or angered by the thorough pat-downs, but that 42% were not bothered by full body scanning.
It was just two weeks ago that a CBS News poll found that 81% of Americans approved of the use of the controversial full-body scanners, but that was before the big uproar.
Here’s where I stand, officially, in light of what I wrote last week. First off, I found it comical as I drove around after posting my column that CBS Radio was filing its reports on the topic from the very same Spokane Airport I made fun of. But I want to be clear. I will readily take the pat-down, as offensive as it is, to avoid the X-rays. The local NBC News affiliate in New York this week had a story on how many of the doctors in the city are highly skeptical of reports that the radiation dosage is tame. You are nuts if you trust the government when it says it has tested the machines and they are safe. This is the same government that for months had no clue how much oil was spilling from the BP well and you believe them when it comes to a serious potential risk like excessive radiation, especially for frequent flyers? No way. Go ahead. Let them touch your junk. Better than learning five to ten years from now that you’ve developed cancer, which is the length of time doctors say it could take to develop.
“Fifty years ago, William F. Buckley wrote a memorable complaint about the fact that Americans do not complain enough. His point, like most of the points he made during his well-lived life, is, unfortunately, more pertinent than ever. Were he still with us, he would favor awarding the Presidential Medal of Freedom, which he received in 1991, to John Tyner, who, when attempting to board a plane in San Diego, was provoked by some Transportation Security Administration personnel….
“When TSA personnel began looking for weapons of mass destruction in Tyner’s underpants, he objected to having his groin patted. A TSA functionary, determined to do his duty pitilessly – his duty is to administer the latest (but surely not the last) wrinkle in the government’s ever-intensifying protection of us – said: ‘If you’re not comfortable with that, we can escort you back out, and you don’t have to fly today.’
Tyner: “I don’t understand how a sexual assault can be made a condition of my flying.”
TSA: “Upon buying your ticket, you gave up a lot of rights.”
“Oh? John Locke, call your office.
“The theory – perhaps by now it seems like a quaint anachronism – on which the nation was founded is, or was: Government is instituted to protect preexisting natural rights essential to the pursuit of happiness. Today, that pursuit often requires flying, which sometimes involves the wanding of 3-year-olds and their equally suspect teddy bears.
“What the TSA is doing is mostly security theater, a pageant to reassure passengers that flying is safe. Reassurance is necessary if commerce is going to flourish and if we are going to get to grandma’s house on Thursday to give thanks for the Pilgrims and for freedom. If grandma is coming to our house, she may be wanded while barefoot at the airport because democracy – or the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment; anyway, something – requires the amiable nonsense of pretending that no one has the foggiest idea what an actual potential terrorist might look like.
“But enough, already. Enough trivializing important values – e.g., air safety – by monomaniacal attempts to maximize them. Disproportion is the common denominator of almost all of life’s absurdities. Automobile safety is important. But attempting to maximize it would begin (but by no means end) with forbidding left turns.
“Bureaucracies try to maximize their missions. They can’t help themselves. Adult supervision is required to stand athwart this tendency, yelling ‘Stop!’
“Again, Buckley: ‘Every year, whether the Republican or Democratic Party is in office, more and more power drains away from the individual to feed vast reservoirs in far-off places; and we have less and less say about the shape of events which shape our future.’
“The average American has regular contact with the federal government at three points – the IRS, the post office and the TSA. Start with that fact if you are formulating a unified field theory to explain the public’s current political mood.”
–Talk about the rise and fall of…how about former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay? On Wednesday he was convicted of money-laundering in illegally funneling corporate contributions to Texas state legislative candidates in 2002 that was part of a scheme for a redistricting plan that would send more Republicans from the key state to Congress. DeLay solicited nearly $200,000 in corporate donations, sent it to an arm of the Republican National Committee, which then funneled it to seven legislative candidates in an effort to evade Texas law, which prohibits corporate contributions to political campaigns.
DeLay, once known as “The Hammer” for the style in which he lorded over House Republicans, could face anywhere from five years to life in prison, though he may also just receive probation. Outside the courtroom he said, “This is an abuse of power. It’s a miscarriage of justice, and I still maintain that I am innocent. The criminalization of politics undermines our very system, and I am very disappointed in the outcome.”
Tom DeLay was one of the more fascinating political figures of our time. The man who once had an exterminator business rose to become perhaps the most powerful force in Congress, but he was always ethically challenged. What was frustrating to me, as a Republican, is that he was not only immensely talented, I’ve written in this space before that he wrote some of the great speeches of our time. But it was DeLay’s extensive ties to Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff that proved to be his undoing.
–President George W. Bush’s memoir “Decision Points” has sold 1.125 million copies in its first two weeks. Sales include 135,000 e-book downloads. Random House gave Bush a $7 million advance and most thought it would lose money. Maybe not. “Bush has been very good at promotion,” said a publishing consultant. Using another measurement, though, Nielsen BookScan, Bush did not outsell Bill Clinton’s “My Life” in the first two weeks.
–Go find Jonathan V. Last’s piece in the Nov. 22, 2010 issue of The Weekly Standard titled “American Narcissus: The Vanity of Barack Obama.” It will make you sick. For instance:
“Buried in a 2008 New Yorker piece by Ryan Lizza about the Obama campaign was this gob-smacking passage:
Obama said that he liked being surrounded by people who expressed strong opinions, but he also said, “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.” After Obama’s first debate with McCain, on September 26th, [campaign political director Patrick] Gaspard sent him an e-mail. “You are more clutch than Michael Jordan,” he wrote. Obama replied, “Just give me the ball.”
“(It’s) important to remember that our presidents aren’t always this way. When he accepted command of the Revolutionary forces, George Washington said,
I feel great distress, from a consciousness that my abilities and military experience may not be equal to the extensive and important Trust…I beg it may be remembered, by every Gentleman in the room, that I, this day, declare with the utmost sincerity, I do not think myself equal to the Command I am honored with.
–President Obama’s approval rating dropped to 42% in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, but just 35% on his handling of the economy, the lowest of his presidency.
28% said Obama should have the most influence on government policy next year, 27% say the Tea Party standard-bearers should, 23% say GOP congressional leaders and 16% Democratic congressional leaders; i.e., the Tea Party is selected over traditional Republican leadership when it comes to confronting the president.
–In another poll, this one conducted by Quinnipiac University, American voters by 49% to 43% do not think Obama has earned a second four-year term (only 35% of independents believe he deserves reelection), and in trial heats for 2012, Mitt Romney receives 45% to 44% for Obama, while the president beats Mike Huckabee, 46% to 44%.
–One of the big issues confronting Speaker-to-be John Boehner is what to do with Minnesota Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite who was not given a leadership position as she sought. But the two-termer doesn’t have the respect of many on the Hill because she hasn’t come up with a significant piece of legislation and has a reputation of being more interested in getting on TV than in learning policy and advancing the party’s agenda. But Republican leaders also know enough not to criticize her publicly. I have no hesitation doing so. I’m not a fan.
–And of course I’m not a fan of Sarah Palin, who told Barbara Walters for an upcoming “20/20” that she could defeat President Obama in 2012, though she has yet to formally declare for the race. Her Republican rival in Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, says Palin lacks the “leadership qualities” and “intellectual curiosity” to be president. And 52% of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of her (51% in the above-mentioned Quinnipiac survey), which is insurmountable. I mean that’s a staggering figure.
In this week’s edition of Life with Sarah, Barbara Bush told CNN’s Larry King that she hoped Palin would stay in Alaska. So Sarah fired back on Laura Ingraham’s radio program.
“I don’t want to concede that we have to get used to this kind of thing, because I don’t think the majority of Americans want to put up with the blue-bloods – and I want to say it with all due respect because I love the Bushes – the blue-bloods who want to pick and choose their winners instead of allowing competition.”
As for daughter Bristol, I did watch “Dancing With the Stars” for the first time this Monday and Tuesday. I don’t understand why she was on in the first place (of course I know why…just don’t understand), and from the offstage clips she was nothing but bitter.
“Winning this would mean a lot – it would be like a big middle finger to all the people out there that hate my mom and hate me.”
And check this out from Matt Labash of The Weekly Standard, a conservative standard-bearer.
Concerning the show “Sarah Palin’s Alaska,” whose ratings, after a strong opening, are plummeting, Labash observes:
“It’s hard to tell sometimes where Sarah ends and Alaska begins. The Last Frontier of Alaska is as wild and untamed as Sarah Palin’s ambitions. So it makes sense that Sarah loves Alaska, because loving Alaska is like loving herself. And that’s what Sarah Palin’s Alaska is really about: self-love.”
Now I haven’t watched the show myself. Those who have tell me it’s beautiful…Alaska, that is. But check this out from Mr. Labash.
“(Sarah’s) family is not acclimating so seamlessly to their new reality-television roles. Her daughters, just a few days ago, got in a widely reported Facebook scrape, with Willow electing to defend the family honor when the show was trashed by an old classmate for ‘failing so hard.’ Willow, in turn, invited him to ‘stfu, Your [sic] such a faggot.’ Willow has a lot of growing up to do. Literally – she’s only 16, and what 16-year-old would want those growing pains played out in public? Yet as Palin recently tweeted, citing Bristol’s response when asked if she was ready to face the pressure-cooker of Dancing With the Stars, ‘No matter [what] I do, they’re going to criticize, so I might as well DANCE!’….
“(When) surveying the two-year output of (Sarah’s) books and tweetings and Facebook updates and speeches and television spots and reality-show utterances, where every minute issue of the day is remarked upon, every slight noticed, every petty retribution repaid, it’s hard to imagine she still has any thoughts that remain unexpressed.
“But that’s what going rogue is all about. Letting it fly. Following your gut. Which has made Sarah Palin wealthy, and intensely discussed, and now has secured her a spot in the Reality TV Star pantheon. And good for Palin if she’s happy following her gut.
“Though there’s no compelling reason to suggest the rest of us should tag along behind.”
–But if you’re one who does want to tag along, consider Sarah Palin’s interview on Glenn Beck’s radio show the other day. Beck asked Sarah to comment on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
“We’re not having a lot of faith that the White House is going to come out with a strong enough policy to sanction what it is that North Korea is going to do. So this speaks to a bigger picture here that certainly scares me in terms of our national security policies,” she said.
“But obviously we gotta stand with our North Korean allies.”
After Sarah made the mistake a second time, Beck interjected to point out that South Korea was the real ally. “Err, yeah,” she said.
–A Swedish study published in the British medical journal Lancet projects that second-hand smoke kills more than 600,000 people worldwide every year. Globally, researchers found 40% of children and more than 30% of non-smoking men and women regularly breathe in second-hand smoke. From this they then came up with 379,000 deaths from heart disease, 165,000 deaths from lower respiratory disease, 36,900 from asthma and 21,400 deaths from lung cancer a year.
–Prince William and Kate Middleton set a date…Friday, April 29, 2011 in Westminster Abbey. Can’t go…gotta work that day.
–Pope Benedict XVI softened the Church’s stance on the use of condoms, saying “It’s the first step of taking responsibility, of taking into consideration the risk of the life of another with whom you have a relationship.”
–I subscribe to Army Times and have been saving the stories on the casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq for a future study of mine (I can tell you right now, you’d be startled at the percentage of white victims vs. minorities), and in the past week just imagine being on the base of Fort Campbell, Ky., after the soldiers and their families learned of a firefight that killed five from the base. Eight total from Fort Campbell in one weekend.
–And we note the death in Afghanistan of Marine 1st Lt. Robert Michael Kelly, who was buried on Monday at Arlington National Cemetery, as reported by the Los Angeles Times’ Tony Perry.
Kelly, 29, was killed in Helmand, while leading his platoon on a combat patrol when he stepped on a concealed bomb. He is the son of Marine Lt. Gen. John Kelly. Robert is believed to be the only son of a general to have been killed in either Iraq or Afghanistan.
Speaking during the funeral service, Gen. Kelly said he preferred not to eulogize his son. Instead he wanted to honor all those fighting with him and those who enlisted after 9/11 ready to fight “an enemy that is as savage as any that ever walked the earth.”
But the other day I wrote of the growing disconnect between those who serve (and their families) and the rest of the American people. To quantify this, Tony Perry notes:
“With an all-volunteer force, only about 1% of American families have members serving in the nation’s wars, but among that 1%, there are families for whom service and sacrifice have become a generational obligation.”
“He went quickly and thank God he did not suffer. In combat that is as good as it gets.”
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $1365
Oil, $83.87
Returns for the week 11/22-11/26
Dow Jones -1.0% [11092]
S&P 500 -0.9% [1189]
S&P MidCap +1.1%
Russell 2000 +1.2%
Nasdaq +0.6% [2534]
Returns for the period 1/1/10-11/26/10
Dow Jones +6.4%
S&P 500 +6.7%
S&P MidCap +18.3%
Russell 2000 +17.2%
Nasdaq +11.7%
Bulls 55.7
Bears 21.6 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
