{Posted 7:15 AM ET]
“What becomes of the brokenhearted”
–Jimmy Ruffin
3/10/00
Dow Jones 9928
Nasdaq 5048
3/9/01
Dow Jones 10644…+7%
Nasdaq 2052…-59%
I”m going to keep my overview comments brief, as I have an
extensive edition of “Street Bytes.” Needless to say, this hasn”t
been a happy anniversary of the Nasdaq”s all-time high set last
year. And following are some representative technology issues,
their own record highs, the date achieved, and the lows each hit
this Friday (rounded off).
AT&T $61 (3/29/00) $23
Apple 75 (3/23/00) 20
Amazon 113 (12/9/99) 11
Cisco 82 (3/27/00) 20
Dell 60 (3/22/00) 23
EMC 105 (9/25/00) 34
eBay 127 (3/27/00) 34
Intel 76 (8/28/00) 29
JDS Uniphase 153 (3/7/00) 25
Juniper 245 (10/16/00) 54
Lucent 74 (12/29/99) 12
Microsoft 120 (12/30/99) 55
Oracle 46 (9/1/00) 16
Rambus 127 (6/23/00) 39
Sun Micro 65 (9/1/00) 17
Yahoo 250 (1/4/00) 16
And then there is the scene on the mutual fund side.
One-year returns through 3/8/01:
Science and Technology -59% [Lipper average]
Large Cap Growth -31%
Large Cap Value +10%
S&P 500 -6%
Cash (money market) +6%
After all the crap that value managers took in the years prior to
2000, over the past five the average large cap growth and value
fund is even…both up 15% on an annualized basis. Hopefully,
some investors have learned a lesson. Diversify.
As for the week just passed, what did the economic indicators tell
us? Well, first off, we discovered that you can”t always believe
everything you hear…as the National Association of Realtors
admitted that all of their releases on new home sales have been
out of whack due to a Y2K screw-up. Yes, Y2K. What was
significant about the admission by the group was that the revised
January figures were actually up on the month, not down as
we were originally told. And then on Friday, the February
employment report showed that the economy added more jobs
than anticipated and the unemployment rate itself remained
unchanged at 4.2%.
While the pain in the Nasdaq is real, and a large group of
investors is feeling none too exuberant these days, you have to
separate the market action from the overall economy. As much
as Americans are now involved in the stock market, remember
that 48% of us don”t have any exposure to Wall Street, and some
of the 52% who do avoided the worst of the technology debacle.
Yes, it”s not just a matter of divorcing the economy from the
markets, as you see at the top, you also have to note the
difference between the Dow and the Nasdaq. And this week was
no exception, for as ugly as Friday was, the Dow still managed a
gain on the week, while the Nasdaq fell to another multiyear low.
And I have to tell you, as I believe that we will avoid recession,
as classically defined, I am also itching to buy tech stocks for the
first time since 1998. I may do it next week…or I may wait a few
months. It”s going to be a matter of intuition, and, while I am
normally a long-term investor, my eventual bet in this sector will
be a short-term one. As for the technology profits picture itself,
obviously it”s still awful and may remain so for some time to
come.
*In the interest of full disclosure, while I am still bullish on the
energy group, I sold two of my positions this week as they ran
up because I felt that from a risk / reward standpoint, the big
gains were in. I may unload my last position next week. Bottom
line, I”m now 65% cash / bonds, 30% energy (yeah, it”s a big one
that”s left), and 5% mad cow. If the energy issues were to then
correct, on the order of 20%, I”d probably hop back in.
Street Bytes
–The market took the relatively strong employment report to
mean that the Federal Reserve may have second thoughts about a
half point reduction in interest rates when they next gather on
March 20. They need not worry. For the week, Treasury rates
were virtually unchanged.
U.S. Treasury Yields
1-yr. 4.44% 2-yr. 4.46% 10-yr. 4.94% 30-yr. 5.32%
–Intel startled the Street again, lowering their revenue estimates
for a third straight quarter, this time by 25%. Something about a
slowing economy. But what got me was Intel”s pronouncement
that they were not going to reduce capital spending in 2001. That
seems a bit disingenuous to me. After all, in the Wall Street
Journal this week, there was a story concerning Intel and Ireland,
a country I am rather familiar with. The high tech boom has been
the linchpin of Ireland”s spectacular economic performance these
past five years in particular. Every major player has added plants
in the country.
Anyway, Intel told Irish officials that they were “delaying” a
planned $1 billion expansion by just six months. But authorities
told the Journal they thought the delay would be one year, at
least. Then two days later Intel makes their announcement that
it”s full speed ahead on capital spending. Geezuz, just tell the
truth. We can handle it.
–Cisco announced its first round of layoffs, up to 8,000
including contract workers.
–France Telecom was successful in raising a record $16.4 billion
in the debt market. While the “terms” are unusual, in that if the
company doesn”t hit certain targets, investors earn a higher
interest rate, I say, why take the risk?
–Citigroup (Citibank) continues to be the prime target of money-
laundering investigations. I wonder what top execs like Robert Rubin
are doing with their money? The former Treasury Secretary took
down a cool $19 million last year (by another measurement it was
over $50 million).
–Speaking of banks, I was asked my opinion of the dismantling
of Glass-Steagall (which opened the door to banks, as far as the
securities side of Wall Street is concerned) for an online financial
site about a year ago. I commented then that with the rise of the
bank supermarket, a la Citigroup, these would be viewed as “too
big to fail,” i.e., the government would feel compelled to step in
in the event of a collapse of one of the giants, in order to prevent
economic calamity across the board. At the time, many said,
wrong, the fact that these new super banks were so big made it
almost impossible for them to fail because their product lines
would be so highly diversified.
So I noted with amusement an article in my latest issue of
“Grant”s Interest Rate Observer,” wherein it is revealed that the
money-center titans are not in as good a shape as once believed.
The former chairman of Wachovia Bank said, “The strain on the
banks” capital is greater now than it was (during the banking crisis
of 1989-91) – there”s more risk that doesn”t show up on the
balance sheet.” An international financial crisis could bring this
all to the forefront, which is why you have to pay attention when
even a relative lightweight, like Turkey, catches cold.
–I saw where Leslie Quick Jr., co-founder of the brokerage firm
Quick & Reilly, passed away this week. I met him during a job
search a number of years ago, a real gentleman.
–Jupiter Research, commenting on the wireless web: “The
promise we saw last year has been replaced with a sense of
reality.” What took you a year!
–55% of the American public has a positive opinion of Alan
Greenspan, just 8% view him negatively. The other 37% can”t
understand him well enough to form an opinion either way.
–In an article on Napster, the reporter wrote of the 57 million
who have downloaded the software. “If someone can”t find a
business model with those numbers of enthusiastic users (who are
not all there because it is free), then they don”t deserve to be in
business.” A rather arrogant statement, if I may say so myself. I
recall when Slate magazine had to bag its paid subscription
model because everyone could get similar content elsewhere for
free…like here. I see no difference in the case of Napster.
–Ford workers at the local assembly plant here in New Jersey
received profit-sharing checks of $6,700 apiece, the second
highest ever. [I”m assuming this is the situation throughout all of
Ford.] Something like this has to be part of the decision-making
process. Recession? Not with this kind of cash sloshing around,
even if much of it is used to pay down debt or sits in savings.
–Abby Cohen, gasp, raised her equity allocation in her model
portfolio by 5%! Wow…and, as she was none too happy to point
out, this was her first increase since she lowered it by the same
5% last March! She sure is good…she sure is increasingly
irrelevant.
–As per my note of last week, I did purchase another Dell
desktop for the business and, needless to say, I received what I
thought was a damn good deal.
I bring this up because I”m still convinced that the PC offers the
best delivery system going…certainly when compared to other
existing alternatives. The PC industry will do just fine, but, at the
same time, I don”t see how it will grow much beyond the
population or new business growth rate. Any existing operation
that upgraded over the past few years simply doesn”t need to do it
again for years to come. [I was replacing a 5-year-old model.]
–Amazon”s Jeff Bezos is under investigation by the SEC for
potential insider trading. While what I know of the case sounds
weak, I”m certainly not feeling sorry for him. The little shyster.
–One of the many reasons why the study of history can yield
benefits is something like the following, which I wrote in this
space on 12/23/00.
“In researching my current ”Wall Street History” piece on General
Motors, (I saw) that total spending on advertising in America
crossed $3 billion for the first time in 1925. It didn”t see that
level again until 1946. So when you read all these projections on
how ad spending will keep rising, despite the dot-com crash and a
general slowdown, don”t necessarily believe it.”
Bang on, Mr. Editor. This week Yahoo revealed that its
business model is a disaster, as they now expect revenues of only
$170-180 million in the first quarter, the lowest such quarterly
figure since 1999. Yes, another example where the business is
going backwards. Just two months ago, analysts incredibly
foresaw $320 million in sales. Of course, ad spending is declining
faster than anticipated. Yet just last December, everyone would
have you believe that the pace of spending, across all industries,
was going to hit one record after another.
–Mary Meeker, Net shill, told the Journal that Net usage is still
growing. In terms of the number using it, sure; but as far as
usage (per person), it”s down.
–Hard to believe, but for the 3-year period ending 3/9/01, the
PIMCO Total Return Bond Fund (the only product or stock I
have recommended on this site) beat the Vanguard 500 Fund
(which replicates the S&P 500). You could win a lot of money at
the bar on that one. And I would venture to say that the next 3
years will yield a similar result…or very close to it.
–The airline industry has suddenly become a “wild card” in any
investment scenario. The unions that are threatening to strike
over the coming months won”t take kindly to President Bush
constantly ordering 60-day cooling off periods. And then you
have Continental, who shouldn”t have any labor problems of their
own, where the pilots are grumbling about the packages they see
other carriers doling out. It”s that A-Rod mentality. After Alex
Rodriguez signed his 10-year, $252 million contract, many of
baseball”s other superstars said, “Hey, wait a second.”
–Since October 27, 2000 the Dow Jones has finished every week
between 10373 and 10864.
–Energy: Bill Paul, Wall Street Journal correspondent and
frequent contributor on CNBC, is about as good as they come in
delving into the energy scene. Herewith is his view of the issues
facing California, if they are to avoid disaster this summer:
The independents must keep supplying power, a key nuclear plant
must get back online, enough natural gas for added generating
power needs to be injected into the system, the state needs to
receive substantial hydropower from Washington and Oregon,
aging plants must keep running without long maintenance
shutdowns, the transmission system (which the state now largely
controls) must not fail, and every Californian must cut usage by
10%.
In other words, fat chance they will avoid major problems. I
would point to lack of available hydropower from Washington
and Oregon as enough of a factor to spell trouble. [All that rain
you”ve seen the past few weeks has been in California, alone, not
north where they”ve had significantly below normal rain and
snowfall.] And Paul doesn”t mention what to me is the most
obvious variable. Heat. It will be impossible to cut back through
conservation measures if the state is baking in 90-100 degree
weather this summer.
On a different energy issue, there are reports that a Caspian Sea
oil find may be the biggest since Prudhoe Bay, a huge positive for
the West as this would be part of the pipeline project that avoids
Russia and could represent a significant source, particularly in
times of crisis. A necessary reminder as OPEC gets set for
another round of production cuts next week (though some in the
cartel will advise against such a move due to the slowing global
economic environment).
International Affairs
Islamic Fundamentalists: After I posted last week”s review, I was
watching the news and the footage of the Taliban destroying the
1500-year-old giant Buddhas in Afghanistan. I got a sickening
feeling in my stomach, like they were destroying my own
neighborhood church. I then read with disgust how later in the
week they held off further shelling for the duration of a Muslim
holiday. The bastards.
Thankfully, most Muslim nations are at least condemning the
action. The Vatican called it “crazy.” But it also reaffirms my
belief that the future for the Middle East gets bleaker by the day.
And as I”ve written in this space before, what would be truly
catastrophic is if the extremists topple the existing regime in
Pakistan. The bomb would then be at their immediate disposal.
In the meantime, the American people need to get prepared for
some major action in Afghanistan to wipe Osama bin Laden off
the face of the earth. Not a long-term solution, true, it just has to
be done.
Israel: It”s now officially Prime Minister Sharon. So far, he has
assumed a moderate posture and messages have been exchanged
between Arafat and himself. While I”m not encouraged about
anything here, the combination of Sharon and Foreign Minister
Peres ( a real pragmatist) is a good one. When action of any kind
is taken, at least outsiders should feel as if Israel is speaking with
one voice, and not necessarily an extremist one.
Japan: Finance Minister Miyazawa warned, “Japan”s public
finances are very near collapse.” Later, he apologized for such an
honest remark. But there is an increasing feeling in the country
that maybe what Japan needs is, in fact, a full-blown financial
crisis which may give the nation a chance to totally start over.
This week, it was announced that machine orders, obviously an
excellent indicator of future economic activity, fell 12% in
January, a staggering decline. And Japan”s debt load now equates
to 130% of GDP, the highest level in the history of mankind.
China: The government announced that it was increasing its
military budget by a rather robust 18%, dwarfing previous
increases. And they reiterated that they view the U.S. as the main
threat, because of Washington”s support of Taiwan. [The Bush
administration has a crucial decision coming up; just how much
weaponry do they sell to Taipei.]
And on the issue of Iraq and support that Chinese defense firms
may have given them, publicly, China denied that they broke the
UN sanctions. Privately, they supposedly admitted to the U.S.
that they would stop such action.
Separately, an explosion in the hinterlands which claimed 37 lives
shed light on a depressing fact of life in rural China. School
teachers often force their students to make products during
school hours (unpaid, of course) in order to supplement their
meager incomes. In this case, the kids were making firecrackers
(more like missiles, I think). The government, ever mindful of
their 2008 Olympic bid quest, denied this was the case.
North Korea: President Bush hosted South Korea”s Kim Dae-
jung and stated that there will be no further arms talks with the
North, basically because leader Kim Jong-il can”t be trusted to
live up to any agreement on reducing their missile program, for
example. South Korea”s Kim was disappointed, to say the least,
since he earned his Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts at opening up
dialogue between the North and South.
Meanwhile, Colin Powell offered differing opinions over the
course of the week, first saying that the U.S. would pick up from
where Clinton left off. Bush contradicted that and then Powell
said we still “have to see (the North) as a threat.” Thus, you had
another taste of the early discord within the administration, with
hardliners Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice on one side, Powell on the
other. To be continued…
Russia: NBC News had a piece on the awful winter Siberia has
suffered through. They forgot to include that the Communist
chief Zyuganov may call for a no-confidence vote in the coming
weeks, because, in his words, “we need to change the government
or we will freeze to death half of the country next winter.” This
effort won”t be successful and President Putin need not worry.
But Zyuganov”s point is well-taken amongst the Russian people.
It is criminal what the government has allowed to happen to the
infrastructure. Can you imagine sitting in a freezing apartment for
months, often with your only heat coming from your gas stove?
But they do have nukes!
Balkans: It”s amazing how much things have changed in just the
last few months. The Serbs are basically NATO”s best friend in
the region and we now need each other to keep the peace. Here
we go in to save a bunch of Albanians and now the extremist
element in their midst is wreaking havoc. This week Macedonia
had firefights with the Albanian rebels and the U.S. got into its
own shooting contest. Then in Bosnia, hardliners tightened their
grip on power as it”s the Croats against the Muslims. A show of
hands. Who now realizes that Tito wasn”t such a bad guy?
Spain: While the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland garner most of the
attention, the terrorist war involving the Basques separatists
claimed its 27th victim this week in just the last 14 months. And
the rebels stole a massive quantity of dynamite from a facility in
Grenoble, France.
Sudan: Colin Powell said this week, “There is perhaps no greater
tragedy on the face of the Earth today than the tragedy that is
unfolding in the Sudan.” Of course it has been unfolding for a
mere 18 years, with a staggering 2 million victims. The U.S. must
take the lead in attempting to broker an immediate solution.
Indonesia: And then there”s this hellhole. The following is from
reporter Melinda Liu of Newsweek.
“The Madurese (recent immigrants) were met by a large crowd of
machete-swinging Dayaks – an indigenous people whose
ancestors were animists and cannibals. The handful of police ran
away, and the Dayaks descended. They beheaded some of the
Madurese and ripped open chests to tear out and eat still-beating
hearts. ”They were like wild pigs,” one shocked witness, Tuguh
Ernawan, told Newsweek after the incident last week. ”I saw a
beautiful young woman die. They stabbed her with a spear in the
side, then cut off her head and took out her heart.””
We should send in a bunch of special forces and just blow these
devils to hell. Make it a pay-per-view.
Mad Cow / Foot-and-Mouth Update
Newsweek”s cover story was on mad cow this week. Nothing
much that you regulars didn”t already know. But I did learn that
600,000 metric tons of cattle feed from Britain was shipped to
Indonesia between 1980 and 1996, an unbelievable amount of
what is clearly tainted product. [It wasn”t until after ”96 that
Britain began to understand the full dimension of their problem.]
So while there has been zero talk of Asia”s exposure, that”s
simply because they haven”t known to look. And, regarding the
U.S., there are those who say that while we appear to be doing all
we can to ensure our product is safe, we also aren”t looking hard
enough.
[By the way, Americans eat 80 pounds a year of chicken and 70
pounds of beef, with the latter rising substantially in the past
year.]
As for foot-and-mouth, despite reports earlier in the week that
Britain had contained the outbreak, that now appears not to be
the case. There is a problem with about 100,000 “black market”
sheep that were moved before the travel bans went into effect.
Authorities do, however, seem to have a handle on how this latest
crisis started; about 10 years ago in the Middle East, and, later,
Asia and South Africa. Pigs fed “on swill containing waste food
from a ship which started its journey in Asia…then South
Africa…and on to Britain.” Lovely.
Commenting on the scene in Britain these days, Felicity Spector
wrote in the New York Times that “modernity, it seems, is far
more fragile than we”d like to believe.”
Panic
Last week I said I would have a tale of true panic, and the
potential consequences. Well, this week we had a mini-panic, and
it had to do with what turned out to be a horrid weather forecast.
Going back to Friday the 2nd, the National Weather Service was
forecasting a storm of epic proportions for the New York area,
starting Sunday. I went to the grocery store on Saturday, after
the local weather jocks were calling it the biggest storm in 50
years. Clearly, it was time to load up on beer and Chex Mix.
Luckily, both were still on the shelves. Of course, you know the
rest of the story. New York received about 3 inches and even
that was a good 24 hours later than originally expected. In the
meantime, New Jersey declared a state of emergency and our
acting governor looked like a toolshed for doing so. Most
schools closed for two days when perhaps a one-hour delay, max,
on Tuesday was appropriate.
The region panicked over a bunch of slush. So what would
happen during a real crisis? Like during a bioterrorism attack?
Pulitzer Prize-winning writer Laurie Garrett recently wrote a
book, “Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health.”
An excerpt appeared in the January / February issue of Foreign
Affairs. Herewith is a snippet, concerning how authorities may
handle a bioterrorist attack, recognizing that they “probably aren”t
going to be able to recognize it has happened…until the
incubation period is over,” as one official put it. Garrett writes:
“Once an outbreak is recognized, an epidemiologist would be
dispatched to identify the cause. If the pathogen were fairly
common, (like the bacterium that causes botulism), local hospital
laboratories could probably identify the culprit first. But if the
microbe were rare, like those that cause anthrax, Q fever, Ebola,
smallpox, or plague, local facilities would probably be unable to
diagnose the problem. With precious time passing, people dying,
and disease possibly spreading, local officials would then await
word from the diagnostic labs at the CDC. If the suspected
pathogen were highly deadly, like the smallpox virus, the analysis
would be handled in the CDC”s Special Pathogens laboratory,
which is normally staffed by fewer than a dozen highly specialized
scientists. And during a crisis, it would be difficult to find
qualified supplementary staff to scale up operations. During the
1995 Ebola outbreak in Zaire, for example, the lab was staffed by
a mere six scientists who toiled around the clock trying to identify
the presence of the lethal virus in some 30,000 tissue, blood,
plant, insect, and animal samples. In the case of a bioterrorist
attack, valuable time – and lives – might be lost during such an
arduous process.
“In a large urban center, the true costs of a bioterrorist attack
might be the consequences of panic, such as a stock market
collapse in New York…At a 1998 Senate hearing on
bioterrorism, then Minnesota State Epidemiologist Michael
Osterholm warned against underestimating the degree of panic
such an event would provoke:
“(A) single case of meningitis in a local high school causes
enough fear and panic to bring down a whole community…Now
imagine you”re telling people, ”This is going to unfold for eight
weeks, and I can”t tell you if you”re going to die.” And with
every symptom…real or imagined, (people are) going to think,
”I”ve got it! I”m going to die!””
Focus on the Wall Street part of the story. Do you see why in
today”s world you should never, ever, have 100% of your money
in equities? And make sure you have some kind of cash cushion.
It”s the only prudent thing to do…because you never know.
Political Notes
–President Bush is halfway home with his tax cut, supported by
the American public by a 57-32 margin, according to a Wall
Street Journal / NBC News survey. The first stage of the plan
passed convincingly in the House, but the Senate will be a
different story.
On a related matter, that being repeal of the estate tax, boy am I
sick of all the rich folk crying that it would lead to a massive
reduction in charitable contributions. As Senator Jon Kyl
remarked in an op-ed piece, such talk from the likes of Bill Gates
and Warren Buffett is the height of “arrogance.” And then
there”s word that Mr. Gates (whom I otherwise admire) wants to
expand his 37,000-square foot home, the one with 28 parking
spaces.
–Speaking of the above Journal survey, when Bill Clinton left
office, his “positives” were 56%, “negatives” 33%. Today it”s
34% positive, 52% negative…and, I guess, the other 14% would
be “criminal.” And how about this, 49% now view Hillary
negatively, versus just a 35% positive rating.
–Vice President Cheney”s latest heart episode is troubling. My
guess is that the administration has to be looking at 2002 (post-
mid-term election) as a possible exit point. I don”t see how you
can go into 2004 with him on the ticket, sad to say. Just an
opinion.
–Following up on my Reagan / 1981 tax cut comments of last
week, Fareed Zakaria wrote the following:
“If during the Reagan years, non-defense spending had risen only
by the inflation rate, the federal budget would have had a surplus
of almost $250 billion at the end of his presidency (instead of a
$150 billion deficit in 1989).” That”s Bush”s challenge. Hold the
line on spending. An awful tough task with porkers like Robert
Byrd around.
Random Musings
–As a result of the latest school shooting in Santee, the cries for
gun control are heard once again, though not nearly as loud as
before. People seem to understand it is more than that. I believe,
1) We have some incredibly irresponsible parents (though, while
not a parent myself, I do recognize that raising a child today is far
more difficult than when I was a kid. 2) The Internet is poison.
3) Kids can be cruel, and in today”s environment, that can have
deadly consequences.
–In 1998, 118 were stampeded to death at the “Stoning of Satan”
ritual in Mecca, during the annual Muslim pilgrimage. This year,
the toll was only 35! And I think just 3 or 4 were children! Is
that progress or what?!
–My good friend Jeff B. is having big problems with Microsoft
and Hotmail again, a major issue since he is a consultant
transacting business online. Of course every message I send him
gets sent back to me as well. But he might get this. We need to
grab a beer at….
–You may have seen this week the reports confirming that
inventor Dean Kamen”s great new product (IT, “Ginger”) is,
indeed, a $2,000 scooter. And the reporter who has done the
story for Inside magazine kept saying “But it”s no ordinary
scooter and it has this hydrogen motor and…” Oh, geezuz, is
P.T. Barnum still alive?
–In case you”re wondering what the “Next Big Thing” really is
(particularly after last week”s diatribe) just glance up. It”s space.
Somehow Americans need to understand this. Sure, I saw that
NASA scrapped the X-33 space plane after spending over $1
billion. But we have to keep trying. It should boggle the mind
that in the last 30+ years, we have essentially gone nowhere. We
should be launching a space probe every week and go back to the
moon and set up a permanent colony…just for starters. The
whole world needs something exciting…something to stretch the
imagination in a positive way.
Retired NASA engineer Homer Hickam wrote an op-ed piece this
week in the Journal. He concluded, “I believe that to be a great
nation, a nation must do great things. Greatness for us, I am
certain, lies along the pathways to space.”
–Don”t bother checking whether it is David or Jimmy Ruffin
regarding the song at the top of this column. I triple-checked
myself.
Yak Update: Tibetans have relied on Yak for centuries, eating
their meat, using their dung as fuel and making rope and clothing
from their wool, leather from their hides, and butter and cheese
from their milk. Man, is this a great animal or what? And
as for the dung bit, do you see why every Californian should have
one? Your editor may just have to get into the Yak breeding
business. But I better check my condo association”s by-laws first.
More on the mighty Yak next week. [And did you notice that the
Yak gets a capital “Y” in these spots? That”s the kind of respect
the animal commands.]
Census: The release of the final 2000 census figures reveals that
Hispanics are rapidly becoming the largest minority in America.
This has all kinds of political implications. For example, Bush
won 31% of the Hispanic vote in 2000, but it varied widely from
state to state. [Florida 49%, Texas 43%, California 28%, New
York 18%.] In Congress, Hispanics still just have 21 House
seats, while Blacks have 39.
One of every ten Americans is also now foreign born, for the first
time since the early 30s. Some of my more conservative friends
may not agree, but I view this as a real strength in our country,
and, as I”ve pointed out countless times before, if you don”t grow
the population, the economy dies. That”s the problem facing
Europe and Japan, looking out 10-20 years.
And we all need to be reminded every now and then just how
special America is. For all our handwringing on ethnic and racial
issues in this country (media fed, of course), it is truly amazing
the level of integration that has taken place over the past century,
particularly when compared with the clashes dominating the rest
of the world. No doubt we still have serious issues to address,
but America remains by far the best place on earth.
Gold closed at $271…oh my gosh, a rally! Sell your class rings!
Oil, $28.01
Returns for the week, 3/5-3/9
Dow Jones +1.7%
S&P 500 -0.1%
S&P MidCap -0.6%
Russell 2000 -0.7%
Nasdaq -3.1%
Returns for the period, 1/1/01-3/9/01
Dow Jones -1.3%
S&P 500 -6.6%
S&P MidCap -3.9%
Russell 2000 -2.0%
Nasdaq -16.9%
Bulls 53.6%
Bears 34.0% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
Note:
My series on the history of the tech bubble is as good as anything
you”ll find elsewhere. Check out the “Wall Street History”
archives. [12/29/00-1/19/01]
Have a great week. Spring is on the way! Praise the Lord.
Brian Trumbore
