[Posted 7:15 AM]
In lowering interest rates for a 6th time this past Wednesday, the
Federal Reserve cited declining profitability and capital
spending, a weakening consumer, and slowing growth abroad as
factors that may generate further “economic weakness in the
foreseeable future.”
Wall Street was initially disappointed that the Fed only cut rates
25 basis points rather than 50, but later got over it. As the
“minutes” from May”s Fed gathering were released (the Fed
doesn”t trust us with “real time” information), many equity
investors looked at the developing schism within the body and
saw some positives. The bond pits, on the other hand, only saw
red.
As some of this week”s positive economic data on durable goods,
consumer confidence, housing, and manufacturing revealed,
perhaps we are near a bottom in the economy after all. And first
and foremost, Wall Street wants to see an end to the current
profits recession, with second quarter projections pointing to a
decline of 15-17% in earnings for S&P 500 companies. First
Call is forecasting a further decline in the third quarter of 13%.
Believe it or not, if that figure doesn”t soften much further, that”s
a positive.
But positive news on the economic front is not good for bonds.
The debate on further rate cuts within the Fed that was revealed
in the May minutes tells the bond market that the Central Bank
is close to wrapping up its easing cycle, which has seen it
reduce the Fed funds rate from 6.5% to 3.75% just since January
3rd. Reaching this conclusion (at least for this week) spelled
death for the short-end of the yield curve which had been
discounting further rate reductions by the Fed. And action in the
long end wasn”t exactly a barrel of monkeys either as those
issues were impacted by the feeling that if the Fed thinks the
economy is bottoming (official pronouncements notwithstanding)
and recovery is imminent, then inflation might pick up as well.
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
1-yr. 3.62% 2-yr. 4.24% 10-yr. 5.40% 30-yr. 5.74%
[The 2-year rose a whopping 34 basis points in yield, while the
10-year rose 28. And by way of comparison, on 12/31/00, the 2-
year was at 5.09% while the 10-year traded with a yield of
5.11%; which graphically illustrates the impact of the Fed”s
aggressive easing on shorter maturities, as well as the stubborn
action on the long end.]
That”s some of the sentiment behind the market gyrations this
week. Now, what”s reality, as viewed through the eyes of your
editor? While some of the economic indicators were not as dire
as forecast, we still have an economy that, in the case of
technology, at least, will be suffering from its capital spending
binge for quite some time to come. You just can”t convince me
the doom and gloom in technology is about to abate. As a 3Com
executive said this week, the current environment is “the most
severe, broad-based decline the tech industry has ever faced.”
While Europe”s biggest computer services company, Cap
Gemini, reported that “business is falling off a cliff in just the
last few weeks.”
And on the earnings front, you had an influential analyst (well, at
least at home he probably has some influence), Rick Sherlund of
Goldman Sachs, begin to take down his forecasts for 2002
(contrarians will say such a move hastens the day when
companies will actually exceed expectations, rather than
continuing to disappoint).
I asked my good friend Jimbo, who holds a senior management
position with a cutting-edge tech establishment, to comment on
the environment many companies face, particularly as it
pertained to the first half.
“This has been the ”half-year of retraction!” The interesting
metric to follow right now is the distinction between the
consumer and the business practitioner. It appears to me that
people continue to buy their kids new clothes, they go out to
dinner, they stop at the liquor store on the way home, and the
mall lots are still crowded. There has been a slowdown in
acquiring the new auto, but if they are considering buying a new
house they are continuing to ”go for it.” Every element of their
behavior appears to remain unchanged, until they go to work!
“When they get to work, they conform to corporate guidelines
that currently encourage cost containment and the short term
perspective to ignore differentiating yourself today, if it will
impact this quarter”s financial results. Who cares if it has the
potential to increase future results, now is not the time to take a
chance!”
Jimbo”s remarks certainly wouldn”t lead one to believe an upturn
is right around the corner. And I also continue to harp on the
sour overseas outlook. Morgan Stanley”s Stephen Roach made
the following comment this week.
“The Fed funds rate at this point is not going to temper global
contagion. It”s a new dimension to this downturn. Stage 1 was
the U.S.; Stage 2 is the world; and Stage 3 is what”s happening in
the world comes back to hit the U.S.” [Gretchen Morgenson /
New York Times]
For example, consumer and business confidence in France and
Germany is hitting multi-year lows, while Asia is being hurt by
slackening demand for its products in the U.S.
But, alas, back in the U.S. there are some positives. As the
Federal Reserve reiterated this week in its policy statement,
inflation is contained (at least the majority of the board still feels
that way), housing remains vibrant in most parts of the country,
falling interest rates are a definite plus for the consumer (for the
saver they”re a different story), the tax rebate checks are arriving
shortly (you may be a winner!), and, perhaps the biggest plus is
rapidly falling energy prices.
O.K. Now tally up the plusses and minuses and what do you
get? To me, more of the same. We avoid recession, as
classically defined, though for many sectors of the economy it
will still feel like one, yet we just kind of scrape along bottom.
Any improvement in the U.S. will be tempered by sluggishness
overseas.
But, the above scenario holds only if the U.S. consumer and the
housing market hang in there. The more insecure folks feel
about their job prospects, the less they”ll spend. And when it
comes to consumer confidence and housing, a Harvard
University study reached the worrisome conclusion that there is
an increasing disconnect between incomes and home ownership,
as in 2000, real incomes rose 2% while housing prices increased
4%. It”s easy to paint a picture, as Morgan Stanley”s Barton
Biggs does, that the consumer will fade in the second half,
thereby precipitating a new leg down.
Finally, by their actions over the past few months, the Wall
Street Journal and Barron”s are sending some interesting signals.
For example, the Journal stopped publishing the daily highs and
lows for each stock (something which some of us still find useful),
while last week Barron”s lopped off all kinds of data,
including earnings forecasts, from its pages. Both said the
changes were necessary to reduce costs and Barron”s has pushed
the omitted data onto its Web site. [If I liked the Web site,
Barron”s, I wouldn”t buy the paper. You”re losing part of what
makes Barron”s special.]
But is there a larger message here, aside from the fact both have
taken away some of the editor”s favorite information? Are they
saying we really don”t need it? Is this the beginning of the great
decompression? After all, I bought a new PC this spring and for
the first time didn”t purchase the most powerful one available
simply because I didn”t need the extra oomph! Were we also
beginning to see this new attitude with the news from some of
the wireless companies that, evidently, placing the Net on a cell
phone is not all it was cranked up to be? And what of the banks,
who are saying, “enough,” in refusing to finance the final legs of
the broadband revolution?
I”m just musing, but if the answer is, yes, there IS a message
here, then many will be waking up to the fact that “This is all
there is,” and that is depressing. With the exception of advances
in medicine (which only the rich will have access to anyway),
maybe there is no next big thing, like the train, auto, and
electricity were in their own infant days. And if there is no
next big thing, what will fuel economic growth and job creation?
That”s just my opinion. Let”s hope I”m wrong.
Street Bytes
Da Market: [Baseball returned to Brooklyn, know what I”m
sayin”?] The Dow Jones registered it”s 6th-straight weekly
decline, this time losing 1% to 10502. But Nasdaq continued its
schizo ways, rising 6.3% to close at 2162.
For the second quarter, the results were darn good.
Dow Jones +6.3%
S&P 500 +5.5%
Nasdaq +17.4%
But to put things in some perspective, check out the following.
12/31/98
Dow Jones 9181…today, 10502
S&P 500 1229…today, 1224
Nasdaq 2192…today, 2162
In between there was a whole lot of shakin” goin” on! Those
who rode the past two-and-a-half years in cash should be feeling
kind of smug about now.
And what of the Fed and rate cuts?
6/30/99…the Fed raises rates for the first of six times, with the
Fed funds rate eventually rising from 4.75% to 6.5% (5/16/00).
Dow Jones 10970
Nasdaq 2680
1/3/01…the Fed lowers rates for the first of six times, with the
Fed funds rate falling from 6.5% to 3.75%.
Dow Jones 10945
Nasdaq 2616
Back in June of ”99, the Fed was seeking to prick the bubble. In
the case of Nasdaq, traders ignored the sound advice. [Slight
sarcasm being exhibited by the editor here.] Then in January of
”01, the Fed sought to prop up the markets and get the economy
rolling anew. It worked that day, January 3rd. It basically hasn”t
worked since. Oh yeah, I know the 6-9 months lag song, and
maybe this will once again be the case, but another way of
looking at all of this nonsense is…the Fed is irrelevant!!!!!!
Class dismissed.
Energy: The news was almost all positive. Gasoline and crude
oil futures hit 17-and-14-month lows, respectively, this week as
inventories for both continued to mount. Again, give producers
an incentive (i.e., high prices) and the supply will magically
appear. The chairman of British Petroleum went so far as to say
“there is no fundamental energy shortage.”
Perhaps not. As quickly as the rest of corporate America shut off
capital spending, the energy industry has been acting like a
bunch of busy beavers, building pipelines (mostly in other parts
of the world where NIMBY isn”t an issue), erecting new power
plants and finding new sources of gas and crude.
But prices are falling because supply now exceeds demand, with
demand tumbling because the global slowdown requires less in
the way of energy. Demand is rising at a 1.2% rate, not the 2.5%
rate projected at the start of the year.
So why all the fuss the past 6 months?
–When the world economy recovers, demand could once again
exceed supply and prices would rise.
–Long-term, the world will witness a large overall increase in
demand. One just has to look at China and the inevitable surge
in automobile use that is coming down the pike to figure this one
out.
–OPEC is still relevant. While the cartel will not always exhibit
the relative discipline it has shown within its ranks the past two
years, those who rely on it for a significant portion of their
energy needs should try and avoid putting themselves in a
position where OPEC can call the shots. With the political
situation being what it is the Middle East, one never knows.
[OPEC meets on July 3rd and, with the recent price collapse, they
certainly won”t increase production any further.]
Microsoft: While a U.S. appeals court unanimously reversed a
lower court ruling that had demanded a breakup of Microsoft,
the court nonetheless upheld District Judge Jackson”s findings
that the company still violated antitrust laws in exerting its
monopoly over operating systems. But since Jackson was such a
jerk, the appeals court disqualified him from hearing the case any
further and, thus, a new judge will be assigned.
Or, the Bush administration could push for a minimal settlement.
Regardless, despite the hoopla on Thursday, this case is far from
over for Microsoft. The key could be the 19 state attorney
generals and how aggressively they now want to pursue the case.
You have a U.S. appeals court, one step below the Supremes,
who has reaffirmed that in some areas Bill Gates and Co.
engaged in anticompetitive conduct. But, in the meantime
Microsoft rolls out Windows XP, a program that has all kinds of
hooks taking the user directly to Redmond, Washington.
Not that this is such a bad thing. Here at StocksandNews we
have always felt that Microsoft makes a decent product at a fair
price. And as the Wall Street Journal”s Robert Bartley put it
Thursday night, “Let Microsoft go back to building wealth.”
–But if Microsoft represents wealth creation, then trial lawyers
certainly represent wealth destruction. To wit, USG.
Last week I mentioned that those clamoring for a patient”s ability
to sue their HMO in state court (where the judgments are often
far greater than the limits imposed on the federal level) needed to
take a look at the current litigation nightmare over asbestos. This
week, building materials maker USG Corp. became the latest to
file for Chapter 11 protection. Since 1994, the U.S. Gypsum unit
has been named in 250,000 asbestos-related personal-injury
cases and has paid out more than $450 million. In 2001 the costs
are estimated to be an additional $275 million.
USG initially wasn”t hit hard because it used asbestos only in
joint compounds and plasters. But as the lawyers realized the
potential for them to reap giant judgments, USG became a bigger
target. William Foote, USG”s chairman, said this week:
“U.S. Gypsum can afford to pay for its own liability, but it
cannot pay for the liability of other companies or pay everyone
who was exposed to asbestos-containing products – yet that is
exactly what is happening because of the high volume of new
cases and the other asbestos-related bankruptcies.”
–CVS says its profits are being hurt due to lack of pharmacists.
I guess everyone just got tired of having to decipher doctors”
handwriting.
–Amazon”s “free shipping” isn”t really free. [Source: Wall St.
Journal]
–The federal budget surplus is shrinking thanks to rapidly falling
corporate tax payments and the new tax cut. In addition, there is
the NextWave ruling on spectrum licenses, which for now could
cost the government an additional $12 billion.
–Boy, am I glad I didn”t waste a lot of space on the G.E. –
Honeywell merger. This whole final chapter, however, may
actually help sales of Jack Welch”s upcoming book. I”m
certainly more likely to buy it.
–But, as I alluded to last week, perhaps a bigger issue when it
comes to trade relations between the U.S. and Europe is the
World Trade Organization ruling accusing the U.S. of offering
tax subsidies for exporters like Boeing (by allowing them to
shield taxes on earnings overseas through offshore shell
corporations). U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick said
that if the E.U. imposes $4 billion in sanctions (a possible
remedy), it would be like using a “nuclear weapon” on the trade
system.
U.S. exports to the E.U. totaled $152 billion in 2000. $4 billion
compares to the $191 million Washington imposed on European
products as a result of the banana war.
–Lucent will lay off another 10,000, bringing the total to 6.84
million…at least to many employees it must seem like that. And
spin-off Agere is reducing its own workforce by 4,000. JDS
Uniphase and Nokia were among the other tech leaders to
announce more job cuts.
And Nasdaq is handing out pink slips to some 11% of its
employees, as it told those affected, “Sorry, there is no new
thing. Now get out of here.” At which point a fired worker said,
“Oh yeah, well I”ll show you!” and promptly shut down the
system. [As to the preceding dialogue and assumptions, file it
under “satire.” Actually, Friday”s shutdown was evidently
the fault of a now very lonely WorldCom employee.]
–For the one-year period ending 6/28, the average small cap
value fund was up 25.7%, while large cap growth funds were
down 30.3% and the average science / technology offering had
cratered 53.5%. [Source: Lipper] Of course, the way fund
investing works, there are relatively few assets in small cap
value, while the once hot Nasdaq market sucked growth
investors into the latter two categories right at the top.
–United Airlines started its non-stop service from New York to
Hong Kong April 1st. It will soon be halting it thanks to poor
load rates. That”s just another indication of how quickly the
economy rolled over, though it hit different sectors at varying
times.
–“Office Space For Rent” signs have certainly sprouted up in my
neighborhood the past few months. Gee, I wonder what this
means?
–The Nasdaq has closed each of the last 11 weeks between 2028
and 2251.
–The strong U.S. $ continues to do a number on U.S. exporters,
making their goods more expensive and hurting earnings. But
where else are foreign investors going to put their money?
–I”m a big believer in the importance of the consumer
confidence data and its usefulness in discerning trends, but
sometimes the figures seem a little out of whack with reality (or
are simply ”dated”). Thanks to Mark S. for passing along the
conclusion of a Goldman Sachs survey which focuses on state
tax receipts as a more accurate measurement of sentiment. The
figures are pretty ugly right now.
–How am I doin”?: Well, the beginning of the year I said that
the Dow and S&P 500 would finish 2001 up or down 5%. The
Dow is down 3% and the S&P is off 7%. As for the Nasdaq I
said it would gain a couple hundred points, to the 2800 level. I
certainly stand by all three, and if Nasdaq were to finish up
around that mark, I wouldn”t call it a great year, even though you
can just imagine the frothing at the mouth from those who will
say that a rise from the low of around 1600 is quite spectacular.
As for my own portfolio, I am still about 30% equities and 70%
cash and bonds. I have one energy position that has taken major
gas the past few weeks as the price of crude has fallen, but I have
another one that is rising. Then I have the 5% Nasdaq QQQ
holding, which I purchased when the index was around 1950 (on
its way down). I still have a target of 2400. [Yes, it”s different
from the 2800…it”s just a touchy / feely type of thing.]
International Affairs
Israel: Prime Minister Sharon met with George Bush and
reiterated his demand that Israel needs to see zero violence for at
least 10 days before it would take any real steps towards peace.
But after meeting with Secretary of State Powell, he agreed to a
7-day test. If violence ceases during that time, then they go
into a different 6-week cooling off period as called for by the
Mitchell Report.
Meanwhile, Powell met with Yasser Arafat as well. After their
meeting, Arafat steadfastly refused to do what everyone wants
him to, that is re-arrest the terrorists he let go last September, an
act which precipitated all the violence we”ve witnessed since
then. The PLO chairman cited a “union between all of us” as his
reason for not locking them back up. So fat chance we”ll ever
get to a 6-week cooling off period.
And the French made their contribution to Middle East peace
when they hosted Syrian President Assad for a state visit (the
highest diplomatic welcome). At least there were some
Frenchmen protesting Assad”s arrival.
China: They are increasingly concerned a showdown with the
U.S. is imminent, according to press reports. And if Beijing has
to funnel increased funds into defense, it will take away from
spending on economic reform. Of course, they are now making
waves by sending warships near the disputed Spratly Islands (off
the Philippine coast), but I promise not to make more of this than
is warranted.
In the meantime, the U.S. is going to take a neutral stance on
China”s 2008 Olympic bid. [The IOC will announce a winner
July 13.] Enthusiasm for blocking it has run out in Congress.
Basically, in light of the spy plane incident, the timing isn”t right.
But China also is stepping up its campaign against the media,
threatening to close newspapers that report on scandals, criminal
cases, and human and natural disasters…leaving…what?
Cooking? All of this is done in preparation for next year”s
leadership changes. And all the while, 5 Americans are still
being held as political prisoners, with our government afraid to
do anything.
I was reading a column by Anthony Lewis the other day and he
noted a speech by Bobby Kennedy. Lewis”s column wasn”t
about China, but it just as well could have been. Kennedy said:
“Each time a person stands up for an ideal, or strikes out against
injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope; and crossing each
other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those
ripples build a current which can sweep down the mightiest walls
of oppression.”
Japan: Prime Minister Koizumi meets with Bush at Camp David
this weekend. They”ll hit it off and we”ll offer our support for
his economic reform program, even though Koizumi”s shock
treatment will do a number on our exporters as well. And this
week the government announced that unemployment hit a record
while the core CPI has now declined 20-straight months! That”s
what you call…deflation.
But how about the Japanese fighter who strafed a parking lot on
a training run? He almost hit a drug addiction rehab center.
Now that would have really messed them up!
Yugoslavia: Give the new government in Belgrade credit for
seeing the light and turning over Milosevic to the war crimes
tribunal. They now, in turn, should receive some massive aid,
which they desperately need.
Macedonia: Meanwhile, U.S.-led NATO forces escorted
Albanian rebel fighters out of a town where clashes with
Macedonian troops had been taking place and the Macedonian
Slavs erupted in fierce protests in the capital. The Slavs want the
Albanians wiped out. Said the hard-line Interior Minister,
“Peace will be restored only when we clean up terrorists from the
state.” NATO is at a loss, since a political settlement seemed in
view.
Austria: There is a World Economic Forum in Salzburg this
weekend and officials fear more anti-capitalist violence from
anarchists. The Austrian police have said they won”t hesitate to
use guns. How would you like to be a tourist there? “The hills
are alive…with the sound of gun..fire…”
Northern Ireland: I hope a few of you saw CNN”s documentary
last Sunday night. It was some of the best television I”ve seen in
quite awhile. Kudos to reporter Nick Robertson, who had
extraordinary access to former IRA terrorist turned politician
Martin McGuinness. It doesn”t matter whether or not you think
McGuinness has truly changed his stripes, the point is that the
“Real IRA,” the splinter group, still seems hell-bent on violence
and McGuinness is undoubtedly one of their targets for
“consorting” with the enemy.
First Minister David Trimble (the Protestant leader of the power-
sharing government) has threatened to resign July 1st if the IRA
doesn”t begin to disarm. He”ll stick to that promise, at which
point Britain could restore direct rule from London. The recent
renewed violence must be doing a number on Northern Ireland”s
tourism and a Price Waterhouse study revealed that 90% of
overseas businesses will reduce new spending if the government
is shelved.
Saudi Arabia: As a result of the recent indictments in the Khobar
Towers bombing, the Saudis are miffed at the U.S. for indicting
Saudi citizens (though the Saudis were helpful in cooperating
with the FBI). They will most likely try the accused in Saudi
Arabia rather than extradite them to the U.S. Of course, were
this to occur, we would lose the opportunity to get more
intelligence out of them, but at least we know death will be swift.
A little sword to the neck, if you catch my drift.
Papua New Guinea: What? Heck, I never thought I”d have to
bring this place up but violent student protests left 3 dead. The
issue? Globalization. The people fear that IMF-backed reforms
will lead to job losses. What makes this all important is that this
land is a hop, skip, and jump from Australia and the Aussies
have to fear an influx of refugees.
Venezuela / Peru: Something has happened to Venezuelan
President Chavez. He was evolving into a dictator, blasting the
U.S. at every opportunity, yet now he is being cooperative and
looking to supply us with more oil.
And it was the same Chavez who helped give up Peruvian
spymaster Vladimiro Montesinos (a past subject of this space).
Montesinos was captured in Venezuela but his immediate
extradition to Peru was not met with cheers among Peru”s elite.
He is, after all, the keeper of the videotapes, the very ones that
helped bring down President Fujimori. The tapes contain scenes
of Peru”s leading politicians and military leaders cavorting with
prostitutes and snorting the white stuff, as well as taking a stray
bribe or two. So the question of the moment is, is new President
Toledo vulnerable? Evidently there are compromising tapes of
him (or so Montesinos says) and Vladimiro reportedly told
prosecutors that he will turn over 30,000 new videos in return for
leniency. The perfect summer replacement for “The Sopranos!”
AIDS: At the U.N. General Assembly”s special session on AIDS,
Secretary General Kofi Annan (who won re-election, by the way,
thus allowing him more opportunities to appear in the Times
style section) said $7-$10 billion annually was needed to halt the
pandemic, while Colin Powell reiterated, “I know of no enemy in
war more insidious or vicious than AIDS, an enemy that poses a
clear and present danger to the world.” Powell also said what”s
needed, aside from money is “prevention, prevention, and more
prevention.”
Random Musings
–I”ve said this before, but in light of the latest medical
development, Vice President Cheney will step down after the
2002 mid-term elections. He would be a real liability during the
2004 campaign. How about Fred Thompson as a replacement?
–Well, my main man in New Jersey, Bob Franks, got his butt
kicked in the gubernatorial primary. I hate to say it, but he ran a
lousy campaign. So now I”ll vote for Bret Schundler. But I have
to tell you, I”m tired of New Jersey politics…and you all are the
beneficiaries.
–With the passing of Jack Lemmon, I find myself singing “The
Days of Wine and Roses” quite a bit. It took the place of “Those
Were the Days.” Geezuz, Lord, don”t take all the good ones at
once!
–Roger Clinton is in a heap of trouble, isn”t he? This is where
we should stop screwing around and turn him over to Andy
Sipowicz. Old Andy would get him to sing!
–President Bush won 2470 counties in 2000. The Nasdaq
finished 2000 at 2470. If Nasdaq isn”t solidly above that level in
November 2002, Republicans will get slaughtered.
–I was watching Senator Tom Harkin on “Meet the Press” and
he said that as part of a withdrawal from Vieques, we could do
amphibious landings on the island of Saipan. Have you been
there recently, Senator? I have. It”s not the same island we
landed on in World War II. Trust me. Pretty dumb idea.
–Employees spend an average 49 minutes a day on e-mail, 30-
35% more than last year. Some of Intel”s workers average over 2
hours. [USA Today / Gartner Group] I think we need to take
another look at Greenspan”s vaunted “productivity” figures.
–Back to my item of last week which told of the incredible
amount of methane gas and greenhouse emissions that farm
animals are responsible for. I”m surprised that this topic isn”t
part of any Kyoto / global warming discussion. After all, you”d
think the Greenies would be promoting vegetarian diets, except
that would mean we”d eat a lot of beans and…
–President Bush is attempting to get the House to overturn its
vote to exclude Mexican trucks from America”s roads. I used to
be against the idea as well, but now, how can we prohibit them if
we allow the Ford Explorer?
–Brazil incinerated what it claims is the biggest batch of dope
ever, 140 tons of marijuana. A federal police band played the
theme song to the U.S. TV cop series “S.W.A.T.” Who the heck
was responsible for that trade deal?!
–Tokyo toy maker Takara Co. is packaging 3.5 ounces of corned
beef in a can and labeling it “Godzilla Meat,” complete with
pictures of the irradiated dinosaur. They are also coming out
with “Rodan Meat,” which will be canned, barbecued chicken. I
always thought Rodan was cooler than the Big Guy.
–Finally, your yak update. Male yaks weigh up to 2200 lbs., but
females are just one-third the size. And the gestation period for a
yak is 9 months, which means that 9 months after the Y2K
celebration, we should have seen a spike in the yak population.
No one ever brings this up!
Gold closed at $271
Oil, $26.25
Returns for the week, 6/25-6/29
Dow Jones -1.0% [10502]
S&P 500 -0.1%
S&P MidCap +2.6%
Russell 2000 +5.0%
Nasdaq +6.3% [2162]
Returns for the period, 1/1/01-6/29/01
Dow Jones -2.6%
S&P 500 -7.3%
S&P MidCap +0.5%
Russell 2000 +6.1%
Nasdaq -12.5%
*Due to the problems with the Nasdaq market, the figures for
Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 may be off very slightly.
Bulls 48.0%
Bears 30.0% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
Oh, as to the picture up top, that”s me and my great barracuda
catch while I was in Micronesia. Since I may never do anything
like this again, I thought I better take the opportunity to gloat.
Have a super Fourth! Be careful with those sparklers, kiddies!
You can lose an eye, you know.
Brian Trumbore
