[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs, such as this new site, and your support is greatly appreciated. Please click on the GoFundMe link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.
Special thanks to Jeff W. and George R. for their support.
Edition 1,365
President Trump announced he would wait up to two weeks to make a decision on whether to join Israel in attacking Iran, specifically using U.S. capabilities to potentially take out the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow. It’s a sound call, for starters, to allow for more time to get a second aircraft carrier group in place.
As to the debate on how close Iran is/was to an actual nuclear weapon, U.S. intelligence says Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium, which isn’t in dispute as the International Atomic Energy Agency itself has confirmed.
But Iran having an ability to “break out” and quickly take its 60% highly enriched uranium to 90% weapons grade is one thing. Yes, that can be done quickly, in weeks. Weaponizing it has always been the biggest issue, and a preponderance of experts say Iran is not close to doing so.
The U.S. intel community, led by National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, however, is not ‘in the room’ these days when President Trump holds his discussions with top aides. Trump doesn’t like that she hasn’t been on the same page. Trump publicly stated this week that he believes Iran was very close to having a bomb.
Meanwhile, a huge issue after just one week is Israel’s dwindling supply of missile interceptors. Israel is firing the interceptors faster than it can produce them.
And the Iron Dome system has proved far from infallible. Last weekend Israel admitted 10 to 15 percent of Iran’s ballistic missiles were getting through, and that resulted in 24 dead Israelis and massive property damage, and now that percentage is apparently as high as 35 percent. The Iron Dome system totally broke down in Beersheeba (Beer Sheva) early today.
Thankfully, Israel, as of today, said it has taken out at least 50 percent of Iran’s missile launchers, and obviously Iran has a limited supply of ballistic missiles, many of them also taken out on the ground. [More on Iron Dome and President Trump’s dreams of same next week.]
Speaking of missile interceptors, Ukraine is also running out of them and it’s having a devastating effect on the country.
Yet not one word from Trump on Ukraine this week and Putin’s heinous attack on Kyiv that killed at least 28. The White House has yet to dip into some $3.9 billion already earmarked to fund military aid to Ukraine that former President Biden was not able to spend before the end of his term. There has been no commitment whatsoever from the White House to spend another dollar there.
We knew this would happen. Trump got bored.
The Battle between Good and Evil? You kidding me? He has long admired Vladimir Putin and it’s easier to beat up on Evil Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
—
Trump World, cont’d….
—At the G7 in Alberta, Canada, President Trump kicked off his time at the summit on Monday by suggesting that Russia and maybe even China should be part of the organization.
Trump indicated that he would have the G7 become the G8 or possibly even the G9, although Russia and China would be, err, authoritarian governments in an organization whose members are democracies.
Trump has been saying this since his first term. It’s kind of sick. The president asserted that it was a “very big mistake” to remove Russia in 2014 after it annexed Crimea, a move that precipitated Russia’s wider invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The comments added more complexity regarding Trump’s interests as he was set to meet on Tuesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about ending the war.
“I think you wouldn’t have a war right now if you had Russia in, and you wouldn’t have a war right now if Trump were president four years ago,” Trump said. “They threw Russia out, which I claimed was a very big mistake, even though I wasn’t in politics then.”
Trump added that Putin is “no longer at the table, so it makes life more complicated.”
Asked by a reporter if China should also be added, Trump said: “It’s not a bad idea. I don’t mind that if somebody wants to see just China coming in.”
Trump said it’s important for world leaders to be able to speak with one another at summits.
“Putin speaks to me. He doesn’t speak to anybody else,” Trump said. “He doesn’t want to talk because he was very insulted when he got thrown out of the G8, as I would be, as you would be, as anybody would be.”
—On the trade front, the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline is fast approaching.
And Reuters reported that the trade agreement (framework) reached by the U.S. and China in London left export restrictions tied to national security unresolved, citing two people familiar wit the matter.
Beijing hasn’t committed to granting export clearance for certain rare-earth magnets needed by U.S. military suppliers in fighter jets and missile systems, according to the report.
In Banff, Alberta, President Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Monday that they are signing a trade deal that will slash tariffs on goods from both countries.
The deal does not include tariffs on steel, an especially important piece of bilateral trade. Instead, talks are still going on about whether steel tariffs will be cut to zero as planned in the provisional agreement.
Trump and Starmer announced in May they’d struck an agreement that would slash U.S. import taxes on British cars, steel and aluminum in return for greater access to the British market for U.S. products including beef and ethanol.
But it did not immediately take effect, leaving British businesses uncertain about whether the UK could be exposed to any surprise hikes from Trump.
Starmer said Monday that the trade agreement is “in the final stages now of implementation, and I expect that to be completed very soon.”
But the summit was supposed to present an opportunity to cut some deals with our biggest trading partners. A meeting with Japanese Prime Minster Shigeru Ishiba ended with a pledge for more talks. And after discussion trade with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump said he didn’t think the bloc was offering a fair deal.
Then Trump left early. No deals, just steps closer to one with the UK.
Leaders from Mexico, India and South Korea, who arrived at the G-7 for meetings on Tuesday, didn’t get to see Trump.
Canadians had come to the summit holding an offer for a deal that would have exchanged higher Canadian military spending for the lifting of 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and levies on Canadian auto imports that have squeezed the industry here, Canadian officials said.
“I have a tariff concept, Mark has a different concept,” Trump said.
For his part, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi told President Trump late on Tuesday that a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a four-day conflict in May was achieved through talks between the two militaries and not U.S. mediation, India’s senior-most diplomat said.
Trump said the nuclear-armed neighbors agreed to a ceasefire after talks mediated by the U.S., and that the hostilities ended after he urged the countries to focus on trade instead of war.
India has previously denied any third-party mediation and Tuesday’s phone call between Modi and Trump was their first direct exchange since the May 7-10 conflict.
—Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“How far does President Trump envision his mass deportation project going? As if to heighten the ambiguity, on Thursday morning he tapped out this sentence on Truth Social: ‘Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.’
“Then Mr. Trump turned the focus back where the White House wants it, which is gang members and threats to public safety. ‘We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA,’ he said. ‘Changes are coming!’ How cryptic. The electorate is with Mr. Trump on catching and deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. Yet much more than that is happening, and more than farmers and hoteliers are concerned.
“Vincent Scardina is a Trump voter in Key West, Fla., who owns a roofing company. Six of his workers, originally from Nicaragua, were en route to a job late last month when they were detained, according to a report by a local NBC affiliate. Their attorney says five of those men have valid work permits, pending asylum cases, and no criminal records. We haven’t been able to verify that, but if it’s correct, jailing them is a strange enforcement priority.
“ ‘It’s going to be really hard to replace those guys,’ Mr. Scardina said. ‘We’re not able in Key West, to just replace people as easily as, say, a big city.’ He also got emotional. ‘You get to know these guys. You become their friends,’ he said. ‘You see what happens to their family.’ Mr. Scardina’s message to the President that he helped to elect: ‘What happened here? This situation is just totally, just blatantly, not at all what they said it was.’
“Four hours after that post about farms and hotels, Mr. Trump was back on Truth Social. President Biden let in ‘21 Million Unvetted, Illegal Aliens,’ who have ‘stolen American Jobs,’ he said. ‘I campaigned on, and received a Historic Mandate for, the largest Mass Deportation Program in American History.’ For the record, the Census Bureau says the U.S. population is about 342 million, so he’s talking about maybe deporting 1 person in every 20.
“Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s deportation maestro, Stephen Miller, wants the immigration cops to arrest 3,000 migrants a day. That means raiding businesses across the country. Mr. Trump prefers to talk about ‘CRIMINALS’ because he knows that’s where he has broad public support.
“But his federal agents are out raiding job sites full of non-criminal, hard-working people who are contributing to the American economy. The real policy isn’t what Mr. Trump says, but what his agents do on the ground.”
The Journal posted this editorial Friday evening, after I had posted my WIR.
Sunday evening, President Trump had a lengthy post on Truth Social concerning the topic.
“Our Nation’s ICE Officers have shown incredible strength, determination, and courage as they facilitate a very important mission, the largest Mass Deportation Operation of Illegal Aliens in History. Every day, the Brave Men and Women of ICE are subjected to violence, harassment, and even threats from Radical Democrat Politicians, but nothing will stop us from executing our mission, and fulfilling our Mandate to the American People. ICE Officers are herewith ordered, by notice of this TRUTH, to do all in their power to achieve the very important goal of delivering the single largest Mass Deportation Program in History.
“In order to achieve this, we must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of illegal Aliens reside. These, and other such Cities, are the core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State, robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens. These Radical Left Democrats are sick of mind, hate our Country, and actually want to destroy our Inner Cities – And they are doing a good job of it! There is something wrong with them. That is why they believe in Open Borders, Transgender for Everybody, and Men playing in Women’s Sports – And that is why I want ICE, Border Patrol, and our Great and Patriotic Law Enforcement Officers, to FOCUS on our crime ridden and deadly Inner Cities, and those places where Sanctuary Cities play such a big role. You don’t hear about Sanctuary Cities in our Heartland!
“I want our Brave ICE Officers to know that REAL Americans are cheering you on every day. The American People want our Cities, Schools, and Communities to be SAFE and FREE from Illegal Alien Crime, Conflict, and Chaos. That’s why I have directed my entire Administration to put every resource possible behind this effort, and reverse the ride of Mass Destruction Migration that has turned once Idyllic Towns into scenes of Third World Dystopia. Our Federal Government will continue to be focused on the REMIGRATION of Aliens to the places from where they came, and preventing the admission of ANYONE who undermines the domestic tranquility of the United States.
“To ICE, FBI, DEA, ATF, the Patriots at Pentagon and the State Department, you have my unwavering support. Now go, GET THE JOB DONE! DJT”
Wednesday, Trump told reporters that he is trying to weigh both sides of the issue.
“Look, we have to take care of our farmers, we have to take care of people that run leisure hotels. But most importantly, we have to get the criminals out of our country.”
Reports are coming in of disruptions, and it seems inevitable, as even some Republicans are warning, that there will be agricultural shortages and higher food prices.
Meanwhile, regarding the protests, the situation in Los Angeles had calmed down enough to the point where Mayor Karen Bass on Tuesday lifted a nighttime curfew she had imposed in the downtown district. The mayor said she was prepared to reissue a curfew if she felt one was needed. “My priority will continue to be ensuring safety, stability and support in the downtown neighborhoods,” she said.
And then Thursday evening, a federal appeals court allowed President Trump to maintain command of the California National Guard in response to the Los Angeles protests, blocking a lower court that ordered him to return those forces to the state’s control.
A three-judge panel of the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said Trump’s decision to federalize the Guard was entitled to a high degree of deference. Under that standard, “we conclude that it is likely that the President lawfully exercised his statutory authority,” the panel wrote.
—Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal
“I’m going to say something old-fashioned. It’s a thing we used to say a lot but then we got bored with it or it seemed useless. ‘We don’t do that.’ If we don’t say it we’ll forget it, so we have to keep it front of mind.
“President Trump this week [Ed. now a week ago] gave a speech at Fort Bragg, N.C., to mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army. It wasn’t like a commander in chief addressing the troops, it was more like a Trump rally. The president spoke against a backdrop of dozens of young soldiers who appeared highly enthusiastic. It was as if he was enlisting them to join Team Trump. Presidents always want to convey the impression they have a lot of military support, especially with enlisted men, but the political feel to the event was more overt than in the past. ‘You think this crowd would have showed up for Biden?’ The audience booed the idea.
“The president’s language and imagery were unusually violent. For 250 years American soldiers have ‘smashed foreign empires…toppled tyrants and hunted terrorist savages through the very gates of hell.’ Threaten the U.S. and ‘an American soldier will chase you down, crush you and cast you into oblivion.’ Sometimes bragging for others is really patronizing them, and sometimes they don’t notice.
“ ‘We only have a country because we first had an army, the army was first,’ the president said. No, the Continental Congress came first, authorizing the creation of the Continental Army on June 14, 1775. The next month they chose George Washington to lead it.
“The president turned to Los Angeles. ‘Generations of Army heroes did not shed their blood on distant shores only to watch our country be destroyed by invasion and Third World lawlessness here at home like is happening in California.’ ‘This anarchy will not stand.’
“Then to the excellence of his leadership, and to the ‘big, beautiful bill’: ‘No tax on tips, think of that.’ ‘Then we had a great election: It was amazing, too big to rig.’ ‘Radical left lunatics.’
“He was partisan in the extreme. The troops cheered. Previous presidents knew to be chary with this kind of thing, never to put members of the military in a position where they are pressed or encouraged to show allegiance to one man or party.
“We don’t do that. We keep the line clear. In part from a feeling of protectiveness: When you put members of the military in the political crossfire, you lower their stature. People see them as political players, not selfless servants. It depletes the trust in which they’re held….
“The president’s remarks on Los Angeles have been as hot as the Fort Bragg speech. ‘When they spit, we hit,’ he said. That isn’t a warning, it is an excited statement meant to excite: I can’t wait!
“We don’t do that. American presidents don’t promise to bloody rioters’ heads. You’re supposed to be reluctant to use force, not eager.”
With good reason, some of us were concerned with the military parade Saturday in Washington to celebrate the Army’s 250th anniversary. It was also the president’s 79th birthday, and he’s been itching for a parade like this.
The Beijing Daily, a state-affiliated publication, was emblematic of how Chinese commentators compared and mocked the contrast between the U.S. president’s pageantry and the nationwide unrest sparked by his immigration policies.
“The parade reflects [Trump’s] urgency to proclaim that ‘America is great again’… Yet, no matter how it’s staged, it only reinforces the sense that the halo of the United States is fading, and its deep-rooted institutional problems remain unresolved,” wrote the paper. “Instead, it evokes déjà vu of ‘the setting sun’s afterglow’ and ‘a past that cannot be reclaimed.’” [South China Morning Post]
But the parade turned out to be totally innocent and Trump kept to the script in his remarks.
Max Boot, Washington Post, not a fan of Donald Trump, observed:
“My worry was that Trump would turn the Army parade into just another political pageant. Those concerns only grew when I saw how many of the spectators were wearing MAGA hats or shirts.
“But my apprehension began to melt away as soon as the music started to play and the soldiers began to march. Dear reader, I hope you do not think I am going soft on Trump if I tell you that I thoroughly enjoyed the entire parade.
“As a military history nerd, I loved to see the soldiers marching by in period uniforms from the American Revolution, the Civil War, World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War and the Gulf War. I thrilled to the flybys from historic aircraft – including a C-47 transport, P-51 fighter aircraft and a Huey helicopter – and the daring skydiving of the Army’s Golden Knights Parachute Team. I thought it was cool to see some soldiers going by on horseback, while others drove historic vehicles such as Jeeps and M4 Sherman tanks. Near the end, the Army even showcased its weapons of the future with a drone flyby and a walk-by from drones resembling dogs….
“This was not a menacing, goose-stepping parade a la Moscow or Pyongyang. It was America’s army on display, and I appreciated how many of the GIs were women or ethnic minorities – a reminder of the limits of (Defense Secretary) Hegseth’s anti-DEI purges in a force that truly represents the entire country….
“(Trump) did not hijack the event. For the Army, this was mission accomplished. With night falling on Washington and the skies clearing up, I’m sure that the generals left the festivities with as much relief as I did.”
Meanwhile, the “No Kings” marches held nationwide sparked by the parade could prove more consequential.
—President Trump on Truth Social at 9:34 a.m. today, Friday.
“Zero Border crossings for the month for TRUMP, versus 60,000 for Sleepy, Crooked Joe Biden, a man who lost the 2020 Presidential Election by a ‘LANDSLIDE!’ Biden was grossly incompetent, and the 2020 election was a total FRAUD! The evidence is MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING. A Special Prosecutor must be appointed. This cannot be allowed to happen again in the United States of America! Let the work begin! What this Crooked man, and his CORRUPT CRONIES, have done to our Country in 4 years, is grossly indescribable! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Oh brother.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
As expected, the Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates at its Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday, and in their statement, and comments from Chair Jerome Powell at his press conference, Fed officials are likely to need to see either labor markets soften or stronger evidence that price increases due to tariffs will be relatively muted before lowering rates. So still a chance the Fed does so in September. [Fed Governor Chris Waller, a permanent voting member on the FOMC, said on CNBC today a rate cut in July would be appropriate, but he is basically a lone wolf with this opinion.]
Nineteen Fed officials gave their projections on inflation and economic growth, all the more unpredictable with the tensions in the Middle East and the impact on energy prices, as well as the tariffs. Of the 19, ten of them expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, two penciled in one cut, and seven penciled in no changes this year, up from just four in March, the last time they issued their statement of economic projections (SEP).
2025 growth in the U.S. is now projected to be 1.4%, down from their 2.1% projection in December, with core PCE (personal consumption expenditures index…the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer) at 3.1% by year end, up from 2.5%. But the unemployment rate, now 4.2%, is only supposed to rise to 4.5%.
Next week we have a PCE reading for May, but it’s June’s numbers, and July’s, the Fed is waiting for in terms of any impact the tariffs are having.
Prior to the Fed announcement, President Trump posted:
“Too Late-Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who’s costing America $Billions!”
Speaking to reporters Wednesday morning, Trump said: “We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed.”
Thursday morning, Trump posted:
“ ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars. He is truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government, and the Fed Board is complicit. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had none. We should be 2.5 Points lower, and save $BILLIONS on all of Biden’s Short Term Debt. We have LOW inflation! TOO LATE’s an American Disgrace!”
Chair Powell, on Wednesday, in addressing the criticism, summed it up:
“From my standpoint, it’s not complicated. What everyone on the [FOMC] wants is a good, solid American economy with a strong labor market and price stability. That’s what we want. Our policy is well positioned right now to deliver that….
“America’s economy has been resilient,” Powell added. “Part of that is our stance. We think we’re in a good place on that, to respond to significant economic developments. That’s what matters. That is what matters to us. Pretty much that’s all that matters to us.”
As for the week’s economic data, a report on May retail sales came in very soft, -0.9%, worse than expected, -0.3% ex-autos, also worse. It’s another reminder of the ‘pull-forward’ effect we had early in the year ahead of the tariffs. Retail sales in March rose 1.7%.
May industrial production was worse than forecast, -0.2%, and May housing starts were awful, a 1.256 million annualized pace, well below consensus, and the worst pace in five years.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth is at 3.4%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.81%.
As I noted, next week the PCE, as well as more housing data and a final look at Q1 GDP.
On the budget front…the big, beautiful bill could increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next decade after including other economic effects, according to a more fulsome analysis released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office.
The report factors in expected debt service costs and finds that the bill would increase interest rates and boost interest payments on the baseline projection of federal debt by $441 billion.
Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee unveiled a 549-page blueprint Monday for deeper Medicaid cuts, including new work requirements for parents for parents of teens, as a way to offset the costs of making Trump’s tax breaks more permanent in draft legislation.
The proposals from Republicans keep in place the current $10,000 deduction of state and local taxes, called SALT, drawing quick blowback from GOP lawmakers from New York and other high-tax states, who fought for a $40,000 cap in the House-passed bill. Senators insisted negotiations continue.
There are significant changes from what the House passed in May, especially on taxes, Medicaid funding, and clean energy.
So once the Senate settles on its final version, they will have to work things out with the House and the president’s July 4 deadline for doing so seems unrealistic.
Europe and Asia
We had a final look at May inflation in the eurozone, 1.9%, same as the flash estimate, down from 2.2% in April. Ex-food and energy, 2.4% vs. 2.7% prior.
Headline inflation:
Germany 2.1%, France 0.6%, Italy 1.7%, Spain 2.0%, Netherlands 2.9%.
Britain: The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 4.25% as expected on Thursday, but the BoE said it was focused on risks from a weaker labor market and higher energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East.
Noting the elevated global uncertainty and persistent inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold.
“Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path,” BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, although policymakers added that interest rates were not on a pre-set path.
“The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labor market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation,” he added.
Turning to Asia…China released some important data for May, courtesy of the National Bureau of Statistics, with an unexpectedly strong retail sales figure, up 6.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace since December 2023 and exceeding all estimates. The figure positions China for solid growth in the second quarter of around 5%, the official target for the year, providing some breathing room as it copes with the trade war.
But there was an earlier-than-usual online shopping festival in May, which may have cannibalized June sales.
Industrial production in May was up 5.8% Y/Y, not as good as expected, while fixed-asset investment (roads, railroads, airports) rose just 3.7% year-to-date. The May unemployment rate was 5.0%, down a tick from the month prior.
But China’s new-home prices in 70 cities dropped 0.2% from April, suggesting the effects of a stimulus blitz last September is wearing off.
Japan’s May exports fell 1.7% year-over-year, amid the impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs. But the drop was milder than expected. Shipments to the U.S. slumped 11.1%, the second-straight monthly drop, due to weaker demand for cars, auto parts, and chip-making machinery.
And then Thursday, we had key inflation data for May, 3.5%, down from 3.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since November. Ex-food and energy it was 3.3%, up from 3.0% the month prior. Food prices rose 6.5%, which is actually down from a recent surge, though rice prices soared over 100%. Good gawd.
Street Bytes
—Very dull, holiday-shortened week. In the end all three major indices were up or down fractionally. And that’s it. The Dow gained 9 points to 42206, the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, and Nasdaq rose 0.2%.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.27% 2-yr. 3.90% 10-yr. 4.38% 30-yr. 4.89%
No significant movements this week in the Treasury curve.
—Crude oil finished largely unchanged up a little on the week, after spiking through early Thursday to nearly $78 on WTI, only to reverse course when President Trump said he was pausing for up to two weeks in terms of a decision on attacking Iran.
As for Iranian crude, more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, according to commodities data company Kpler (sic).
—U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel announced last Friday that they had entered into an agreement with the U.S. government to seal the terms of a “partnership” between the companies, paving the way for the two to finally close a deal that has been in limbo for a year and a half. The Trump administration decided that with sufficient federal government control it was worth giving Nippon Steel the opportunity to invest in a 124-year-old American manufacturer that has declined in recent decades.
The companies issued a statement thanking “President Trump and his administration for their bold leadership and strong support for our historic partnership.”
“This partnership will bring a massive investment that will support our communities and families for generations to come,” the statement said.
U.S. Steel said the agreement called for roughly $11 billion in new investments by 2028. Nippon also said it would spend an extra $3 billion after 2028 for a new steel mill, pushing the total additional investment – on top of the purchase price – to $14 billion.
The deal will also give the U.S. government a “golden share” in the company, a rarely used practice through which the government takes a stake in a business. Normally, the government has only taken a stake in companies that are ailing or in particular need of government attention, like General Motors during the 2008 financial crisis.
The two companies then announced Wednesday that the deal had been completed. Shareholders in U.S. Steel had approved an acquisition that would pay $55 a share in cash upon closing.
“Since announcing our deal, I have engaged in extensive dialogue with many stakeholders, including the employees of U.S. Steel, government officials and community leaders,” Takahiro Mori, the vice chairman of Nippon, said in a statement.
—Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, in a note to employees Tuesday, called generative artificial intelligence a once-in-a-lifetime technological change that is already altering how Amazon deals with consumers and other businesses and how it conducts its own operations.
He didn’t specify how much the size of Amazon’s workforce would be reduced but said the efficiency gains from using generative AI would result in cuts.
“As we roll out more Generative AI and agents, it should change the way our work is done,” he said. “It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce.”
It is hoped among some company officials that the decrease in head count can occur largely through attrition.
–But, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Microsoft will be laying off several thousand employees within weeks, the latest knock-on effect of investments in AI where efficiencies come from increased capabilities and there is a need to offset spending on the technology.
Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion in its current fiscal year to build out data centers that train models and run AI applications. The latest cuts come on top of a reduction of around 6,000 jobs in May across product and software developer roles. MSFT had around 228,000 full-time employees at the end of June last year.
President Brad Smith said in January that “AI, like all new technologies, will disrupt the economy and displace some jobs,” in a blog post laying out its investment plans.
Or, AI is now a convenient excuse for companies otherwise dealing with bloated workforces.
—Boeing expects global demand for air travel to increase by more than 40% by 2030, driving the need for thousands of new jetliners in the next few years, according to its 20-year demand forecast for commercial airliners released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow.
The company expects demand for 43,600 new airliners through 2044, essentially the same as last year’s edition.
European rival Airbus last week revised up its own 20-year commercial demand forecast by 2% to 43,420 jets, saying the air transport industry was expected to ride out current trade tensions.
Boeing’s delivery projection includes nearly 33,300 single-aisle airliners, just over 7,800 widebody jets, 955 factory-built freighters and 1,545 regional jets. Single-aisle jets include the 737 MAX and competitor Airbus’ A320neo family and make up roughly four of every five deliveries now.
During the next 20 years, Boeing expects about 51% of demand for new aircraft to come from growth rather than replacing older airplanes.
China and South/Southeast Asia, which includes India, are expected to account for half of that additional capacity, according to the outlook.
–Both black boxes were recovered in the crash of Air India Flight 171. Authorities said 241 of 242 passengers onboard perished, as well as 29 on the ground.
Separately, an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner bound for New Delhi on Monday diverted back to Hong Kong after the pilot suspected a mid-flight technical issue. The plane landed without issue
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
6/19…111 percent of 2024 levels
6/18…107
6/17…88
6/16…100
6/15…110
6/14…86
6/13…100
6/12…111
–The partnership between OpenAI and Microsoft is fraying, tensions growing, as OpenAI wants to loosen Microsoft’s grip on its AI products and computing resources, and secure the tech giant’s blessing for its conversion into a for-profit company. Microsoft’s approval of the conversion is key to OpenAI’s ability to raise more money and go public.
But as the Wall Street Journal reported, the negotiations are not going well, and OpenAI is contemplating accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior during their partnership, which could lead to a federal regulatory review of the terms of the contract. Ergo, the six-year-old relationship is in jeopardy.
For years, Microsoft fueled OpenAI’s rise in exchange for early access to its technology, but the two sides have since turned into competitors, making it more difficult to find common ground.
Microsoft currently has access to all of OpenAI’s IP, but OpenAI doesn’t want Microsoft to have access to a company it recently acquired, Windsurf, a coding company. Microsoft has its own AI coding product, GitHub Copilot, that competes with OpenAI.
—Barron’s was the latest to have an extensive report on the ‘death of search’…how internet search traffic has been falling for much of the past year as web surfers experiment with AI-powered search from OpenAI’s ChatGPT and AI start-up Perplexity AI.
Google is pushing back by adding AI-powered summaries to the top of its search results, de-emphasizing its traditional blue links and thereby further reducing search traffic.
Barron’s notes that last month, May, “search referrals to top U.S. travel and tourism sites tumbled 20% year over year, according to the latest data from Similarweb. E-commerce companies saw their referrals fall 9%. For news and media sites, search traffic dropped 17%.”
“Across the web economy, the trend is clear: Search is drying up, and Google is no longer the clear-cut way to drive audiences to websites. The changes have begun to force a reckoning across various industries.
“Late last month, Business Insider, a leading digital news publication, cut 21% of its staff, citing traffic drops that were ‘outside of its control.’
“ ‘Business models are under pressure, distribution is unstable, and competition for attention is fiercer than ever,’ Business Insider CEO Barbara Peng wrote to employees.”
For its part, Google has countermeasures, including its own Gemini large-language models for AI search.
But it’s the rest of the internet that is suffering. Sites such as TripAdvisor’s search tumbled 34% in May over a year ago, while Starbucks saw a 41% decline to its website.
—Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI is burning through $1 billion a month as the cost of building its advanced AI models races ahead of the limited revenues, according to Bloomberg.
“The rate at which the company is bleeding cash provides a stark illustration of the unprecedented financial demands of the artificial intelligence industry, particularly at xAI, where revenues have been slow to materialize.”
Musk’s startup is currently trying to raise $9.3 billion in debt and equity, according to reports. But over the course of 2025, xAI, which is responsible for the AI-powered chatbot Grok, expects to burn through about $13 billion, according to details shared with investors. Ergo, it’s fundraising efforts are just barely keeping pace with expenses, Bloomberg added.
Separately, a SpaceX rocket being tested in Texas exploded spectacularly Wednesday night, sending a dramatic fireball high into the sky.
The company said the Starship “experienced a major anomaly” while on the test stand preparing for the tenth flight test at Starbase, SpaceX’s launch site at the southern tip of Texas.
“A safety clear area around the site was maintained throughout the operation and all personnel are safe and accounted for,” SpaceX said in a statement on X.
The company said there were no hazards to nearby communities.
But this is worrisome…SpaceX is not close to being able to take U.S. astronauts back to the moon, the mission NASA has tasked it with. One failure after another this year.
—General Motors does not report monthly sales figures, but it was excited enough to note it slightly more than doubled electric vehicle sales this year compared with the first five months of 2024. GM hasn’t reported monthly sales since March 2018.
Across all brands, GM sold 62,380 EVs from January to May, 2025, with the Chevrolet brand comprising 37,620 of those sales.
Ford Motor Co., the only Detroit Three automaker to still report monthly sales, during the same period sold 34,132 vehicles across its all-electric vehicle lineup, which currently includes the Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning and the E-Transit van.
But as one market researcher noted, a year-over-year comparison presents a low bar with these two.
—President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order to keep TikTok running in the U.S. for another 90 days to give his administration more time to broker a deal to bring the social media platform under American ownership.
—Kroger shares rose sharply Friday after bumping up its annual same-store sales forecast, betting on strong grocery demand to offset reduced discretionary spending as American consumers grapple with tariff-driven economic uncertainty.
While Kroger raised its target for full-year 2025 identical sales growth to 2.25% to 3.25%, from 2% to 3% expected earlier, the company maintained its annual profit forecast, with new CFO David Kennerley noting in a statement that the macroeconomic environment remained uncertain.
Kroger has benefited from an uptick in its pharmacy business, driven by the popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
Kroger’s top brass has undergone a shakeup in recent months, with longtime CEO Rodney McMullen resigning following an investigation into his personal conduct.
Kroger reported first-quarter same-store growth of 3.2%, beating expectations.
—Kraft Heinz is breaking up with artificial dyes, a category of food additives in the Trump administration’s crosshairs.
The food giant said it plans to remove the dyes from its U.S. products before the end of 2027
For decades, companies have used artificial dyes including Red 40, Yellow 5 and 6, Green 3, and Blue 1 and 2 to brighten foods or restore color lost during processing or as products age.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Food and Drug Administration announced a plan to phase out petroleum-based dyes in food by the end of 2026, part of Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda. Kennedy has blamed artificial colors and other food additives for a litany of health problems, and said that they are poisoning America’s children.
Major food companies and industry groups have defended the use of synthetic dyes, pointing out that they have long been deemed safe by federal regulators. Some, though, are working to phase out or limit their use of dyes, including PepsiCo and WK Kellogg.
Kraft Heinz said that nearly 90% of its U.S. products, in terms of sales, don’t use artificial dyes. For those that do, like Kool-Aid, Jell-O and Heinz relish, the company said that it would remove, replace or reinvent colors.
The hardest colors to recreate, like greens and blues, will be replaced with other colors, like black and brown (just kidding, green Jell-O fans!).
General Mills then followed Kraft Heinz’s lead, announcing its plans to remove certified colors from all its U.S. cereals and all foods served in K-12 schools by summer 2026. Additionally, the company will work to remove certified colors from its full retail portfolio by the end of 2027.
Eighty-five percent of GIS’ full retail portfolio is currently made without artificial colors.
–This is scary…three people have died and more than a dozen others were hospitalized following an outbreak of listeria that has been linked to premade chicken fettucine alfredo meals sold nationwide at Kroger and Walmart.
Specifically, FreshRealm is the Texas-based food manufacturer that makes the packaged products, sold as Marketside Grilled Chicken Alfredo with Fettucine, and Home Chef Heat & Eat Chicken Fettucine Alfredo meals, with best-by dates of June 27 or earlier.
–Universal’s live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” opened to a series-best $83.7 million domestically and $197.8 million globally, according to Sunday estimates, which includes a huge international haul of $114.1 million from 81 markets.
Graced with rave exit scores from moviegoers – including an A CinemaScore and an almost-unheard-of 98 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes – the event pic is winning over both families and younger single adults who grew up on the animated franchise. It’s the same phenomenon that has turned Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch” into a box office blockbuster. Case in point: nearly half of those rushing out to see How to Train Your Dragon on Friday were Gen Zers between the ages of 13 and 24.
Lilo & Stitch is up to $366.4 million domestically and $942 million overseas for a global total of $858.4 million.
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” is still performing well, the domestic tally $166.3 million, with an international cume of $340.5 million, or $506.8 million worldwide.
Meanwhile, while the box office numbers have greatly improved since the writers’ and actors’ strikes of 2023, the job picture in Hollywood is still bleak. It was thought the workforce just needed to “survive ‘til ’25.” But now it’s: “Exist ‘til ’26.”
Foreign Affairs
Israel/Iran: Israel launched Operation “Rising Lion,” attacking Iran’s nuclear plants and uranium enrichment facilities. Attacks from both sides were intense through Sunday, at which point Israeli forces had essentially wiped out Iran’s anti-air defenses, giving them air space superiority over Tehran, as well as the western part of the country.
Israeli strikes also appeared to have destroyed an aboveground nuclear fuel production site and electrical supply centers at Iran’s largest uranium enrichment center, at Natanz. Scores of Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists had been eliminated.
By early Sunday morning, just after midnight, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran, tonight. If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!”
In an interview with “Fox News Sunday,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said regime change in Iran “could certainly be the result” of Israel’s military campaign. “Because the Iran regime is very weak.”
He said that Israel’s aims were to remove “two existential threats” posed by Iran – its nuclear and ballistic missile programs – and that the government in Tehran lacked popular support. “We’re geared to do whatever is necessary to achieve our dual aim,” Netanyahu said.
The prime minister did not comment on a Reuters report that President Trump vetoed a plan to kill Ayatollah Khamenei. He said that Israel informed the United States and Trump of plans to strike Iran ahead of time and that the two are “fully coordinated.”
Trump on Truth Social, Sunday evening:
“Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, in that case by using TRADE with the United States to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and STOP! Also, during my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were going at it hot and heavy, as they have for many decades, and this long time conflict was ready to break out into WAR. I stopped it (Biden has hurt the longer term prospects with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it, again!). Another case is Egypt and Ethiopia, and their fight over a massive dam that is having an effect on the magnificent Nile River. There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention, and it will stay that way! Likewise, we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place. I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!”
Iran fired a wave of missiles early Monday, with an estimated 10 to 15 percent getting through Israel’s air defenses.
Israel in turn struck 10 command centers in Tehran belonging to Iran’s Quds Force, an elite arm of the Revolutionary Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran.
Trump on Truth Social, Monday evening:
“Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
Tuesday, around noon, Trump issued three posts on Truth Social within 30 minutes:
“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff.’ Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
“UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
The U.S. was expanding its military footprint in the region as the war entered its fifth day. The president left the G-7 summit in Canada early saying he wasn’t doing so to work on a cease-fire but for something “much bigger than that.” Asked to clarify, Trump said he wanted “an end, a real end, not a cease-fire.”
The president did end up signing a statement from the group he had initially declined to sign. But some changes were made to secure his signature.
“I have to be back,” Trump told reporters Monday night while posing for photos. “You probably see what I see, and I have to be back as soon as I can.”
Trump had earlier posted on Truth Social that “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!
The president had been scheduled to meet Tuesday with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum.
The White House said the U.S. isn’t joining Israel’s attacks on Iran, amid speculation fueled by the recent military buildup in the region. A third U.S. Navy destroyer entered the eastern Mediterranean Sea to help defend Israel, and a second U.S. carrier strike group is heading toward the Arabian Sea. Tanker aircraft that could potentially help refuel Israeli jet fighters also appeared to be heading to the region, according to flight trackers and people familiar with the matter.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the military buildup is purely defensive, but it positions the U.S. to join Israeli attacks on Iran should the president decide to do that.
A human rights group in Iran said the death toll rose to above 450. Israel, while suffering 24 dead, and hundreds injured, claimed to have struck dozens of surface-to-surface missile launchers as well as surface-to-air missile launch sites and radars in western Iran, claiming to have taken out at least 1/3rd of Iran’s ballistic missile capability.
Meanwhile, the UN atomic agency said an Israeli strike directly hit the underground centrifuge halls at Iran’s largest enrichment facility, Natanz.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on X Tuesday: “Based on continued analysis of high resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday’s attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz.”
While the previously reported power loss might have destroyed the centrifuges alone, a direct hit on the halls could have done much greater damage. But the agency said there was no indication of a direct hit where Iran keeps thousands of centrifuges. Without them, Iran can’t enrich uranium at Natanz.
The IDF said it killed one of Iran’s most senior military commanders in an airstrike in Tehran.
Tehran residents reported long lines at gas stations and traffic jams as people rushed to flee the city, anticipating further attacks.
Tuesday, Ayatollah Khamenei declared “the battle begins” in an ominous post, following Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.”
“In the name of #Haider, the battle begins. Ali returns to #Kaybar with his Zulfiqar,” Khamenei wrote on X in Farsi, referring to Islam’s first imam, Ali, who won the Battle of Khaybar with the sword Zulfiqar.
Khamenei said in a televised statement, not read by him personally: “Intelligent people who know Iran, the nation and the history of Iran will never speak to this nation in the language of threats, because the Iranian nation cannot be surrendered. The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.”
President Trump said Iran wanted to negotiate and that it was not too late for talks, but criticized the leadership in Tehran for not acting sooner.
“Why didn’t you negotiate with me two weeks ago? You could have done fine,” he said, concluding, “You would have had a country.”
Iran was in talks until Israel began bombing, but Tehran had not bowed to White House demands to fully dismantle its uranium enrichment efforts.
Fifty Israeli fighter jets were flown to Iran, which dropped missiles on a centrifuge production site and multiple weapon manufacturing facilities around the Iranian capital, the IDF wrote on X.
“These strikes issued evacuation warnings for Iranian residents living in southwestern Tehran in anticipation of another strike.”
Iran launched two barrages of missiles at Israel, much smaller volleys and with no apparent injuries as most were intercepted.
Wednesday, President Trump refused to say explicitly whether he would order U.S. forces to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, suggesting the possibility that he had not decided whether to join in the war.
“I may do it,” he told reporters in the morning. “I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists said the death toll in Iran had hit 585 people across the country, with another 1,300 wounded.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei delivered a warning in an interview, saying “any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region.” Tens of thousands of American troops are based in nearby countries within range of Iran’s weapons.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Israel was doing the “dirty work” for other countries by striking Iran’s nuclear sites.
In the event the United States enters the conflict, a likely focus will be on degrading or destroying Tehran’s underground facilities that enrich nuclear material.
That task would likely fall to a small number of Air Force strategic bombers that are capable of delivering 30,000-pound precision-guided bombs designed to destroy subterranean targets.
This bomb, the GBU-57, or “bunker buster” or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, is designed for deeply buried and fortified facilities, such as bunkers and tunnels.
But it can only be delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber, based in Missouri, which would be a 30-hour round trip flight to Iran with multiple refueling missions.
Trump has suggested it would make sense for the U.S. to launch strikes against Fordow only if it was guaranteed to destroy the facility. The president was told that dropping the bomb would effectively eliminate the facility but as of Wednesday, he did not appear to be fully convinced, according to reports.
It could easily require multiple B-2 drops down the same hole to ensure total destruction.
[There is a nuclear option, by the way; the B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator, but there are potential consequences, as you can imagine.]
Later Wednesday afternoon in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters: “I’m not looking to fight. But if it’s a choice between fighting and having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post early Wednesday that his country remained “committed to diplomacy” and had never sought and would never seek nuclear weapons.
IAEA Director General Grossi said the location of Iran’s near-bomb-grade stockpile of enriched uranium cannot currently be verified.
Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium – enough to produce 10 nuclear warheads – should theoretically be secured under an IAEA seal at an underground facility at Isfahan. But Grossi said Wednesday its whereabouts are now unclear, given Tehran warned him the stockpile could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack.
This isn’t good.
Thursday, Iran fired about 30 ballistic missiles and struck a large hospital in southern Iran, damaging it severely in some areas, though incredibly there were no deaths.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz blamed Ayatollah Khamenei and said the military “has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.”
And then Thursday afternoon, President Trump said he will decide whether the United States will attack Iran “within the next two weeks,” adding in a statement released by the White House that “there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu said Thursday that his country has the capability to achieve all of its goals alone when it comes to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Defense Minister Katz said the country would step up its attacks to “remove the threats to the state of Israel,” after Iran’s latest barrage.
Trump could simply be trying to buy more time until he lines up all of his military options, two weeks allowing time for a second American aircraft carrier group to get into place, giving the U.S. a better chance to counter what most believe would be inevitable Iranian retaliation against our forces in the region should be decide to openly come to Israel’s aid in bombing Fordow.
It also gives Israel more time to take out any air defenses around Fordow and other nuclear targets, mitigating the risks to U.S. forces if Mr. Trump ultimately decided to attack.
Friday, Iran said it would refuse to hold nuclear talks with the U.S. while it was still under attack from Israel.
Foreign Minister Araghchi vowed there was no room for negotiations “until Israeli aggression stops.”
“Americans want to negotiate and have sent messages several times, but we clearly said that as long as this aggression doesn’t stop, there’s no place for talk of dialogue,” he said in an address on state television.
He accused the U.S., too, of being a “partner to Israeli crime against Iran.”
But Araghchi is in Geneva today talking to his counterparts from the UK, France and Germany to discuss what he called “nuclear and regional issues” around the ongoing conflict. French President Macron is among those leaders urging Iran to return to negotiations over its nuclear program.
The talks ended a short while ago and Araghchi reiterated Iran will talk to the U.S. only when Israel stops attacking.
–Meanwhile, Israel’s war with Iran is costing the country hundreds of millions of dollars a day, according to early estimates, which can’t continue forever.
The biggest single cost are the interceptors needed to blow up incoming Iranian missiles, which alone can amount to between tens of millions to $200 million a day, experts say. Then you have costs for ammunition and aircraft, as well as unprecedented damage to buildings, the last category currently pegged at $400 million.
According to the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Reichman University in Israel, a war with Iran that lasts one month will amount to around $12 billion.
Ergo, Israel’s economy, largely shut down the past week, can’t withstand an endless military campaign.
John Bolton / Washington Post
“Iran’s war against Israel took another turn for the worse last week as Operation Rising Lion struck Tehran’s nuclear-weapons program, air defenses and military leadership. Iran’s retaliation has so far been uneven and ineffective. Contrary to the scaremongers, World War III hasn’t broken out, nor will it.
“But what next? The 1979 Islamic Revolution retains power in Tehran, and it could rebuild its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs and terrorist networks. The only lasting foundation for Middle East peace and security is overthrowing the ayatollahs. America’s declared objective should be just that. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the case last week, telling the Iranian people: ‘The time has come for you to unite around your flag and your historic legacy by standing up for your freedom from an evil and oppressive regime.’
“Despite outward appearances of solid authoritarianism, the regime in Tehran faces widening discontent. The opposition extends across Iran, far beyond Tehran, where the few Western journalists congregate. Iran’s economy has been parlous for decades, and Israeli strikes on oil refineries may weaken it further…the fundamental lesson is plain: Never trust your economy to medieval religious fanatics. There is widespread outrage at the corruption and self-enrichment of senior clerics and flag officers (and their families) in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military.
“The regime’s imperial projects have done nothing for Iran’s people. They have brought only devastation in Iran itself and elsewhere. Untold billions of dollars were spent over decades to empower terrorist proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis), to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and to undertake massive nuclear and missile projects that now lie in ashes….
“What should the U.S. do? Most important, we should be clear that neither American nor Israeli troops will be staging a ground invasion of Iran. Those arguing that assistance for Iranian opponents of the mullahs inevitably means another ‘forever war’ are simply engaging in knee-jerk propaganda.
“The regime’s weakness and fragmentation at senior levels is the starting point for strategy. Iran is led by an ailing octogenarian, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with no clear successor in sight. His son apparently wants the job, but he is widely disliked. The leading potential successor, President Ebrahim Raisi, died last year when his helicopter crashed. Mr. Khamenei has held power for more than 35 years and is only the second supreme leader, so there is no established path for succession, and internal chaos won’t make it any easier. Israel’s decapitation of significant elements of the regime’s military leadership compounds the disarray at the top.
“In the current crisis, further divisions within the regime’s leadership should be fostered and supported, especially among military officers who could emulate Egypt’s military during the 2011 protests against Hosni Mubarak, refusing to attack civilian protesters. If significant elements of the regular forces and Revolutionary Guard make clear they won’t fire on their own people, the regime could fall quickly. Offering amnesty to regime officials to switch sides could be a useful tool for a more consolidated opposition.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“(As) Mr. Trump has said many times, Iran can end the Israeli assault by agreeing to roll up its nuclear program. Dismantle its enrichment capacity under international supervision, destroy its centrifuges, and allow for unhindered future inspections. Iran’s refusal to do so, even as it risks losing much of its non-nuclear military power and top commanders, shows that the regime wants a nuclear weapon more than it wants peace.
“The world is watching closely to see how Mr. Trump responds, especially the hard men in Moscow and Beijing. Does he help a close ally remove a global threat to peace, and diminish a member of the axis of U.S. adversaries? Or does he listen to the voices of American appeasement on the left and right who fear any use of force more than they fear a nuclear-armed radical regime?….
“If the U.S. won’t help one of its strongest and most loyal allies finish the job of eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat in uncontested air space, the message to China will be that there is no chance the U.S. will defend Taiwan. Everyone will see it – from the Kremlin’s commissars to the Communist bosses in Beidaihe. [Ed. Beidaihe is the Chinese Communist Party leadership’s summer retreat.]
“But if Mr. Trump helps Israel enforce his own red lines against Iran’s nuclear program, he can send a message that American deterrence means something again. The Afghan fiasco, and the other failures of the Biden years, will recede that much further into history’s rear-view mirror.”
Meanwhile, in Gaza as many as 60 Palestinians were killed while waiting for UN and commercial trucks to enter the territory with desperately needed food near Khan Younis, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry and a local hospital.
Palestinian witnesses told The Associated Press that Israeli forces had fired on the crowds. The military did not respond to a request for comment.
Overall, 140 Palestinians in the Strip were killed over a 24-hour period, including in airstrikes.
—
Russia/Ukraine: In the deadliest strike on Kyiv this year, Russia pummeled the capital and its suburbs with 175 drones, 14 cruise missiles and two ballistic missiles, killing 15 people, including an American citizen, and injuring 114, overnight Monday. Over the next two days, emergency workers then pulled more bodies from the rubble of a nine-story apartment building demolished by a Russian missile, raising the death toll to 28 in Kyiv. Twenty-three of those killed were inside the building. The remaining five died elsewhere in the city.
Across Ukraine, more than 440 drones and 32 missiles hit multiple cities, President Zelensky said, including Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Odessa, where a woman died and another 17 were injured.
Vladimir Putin “is doing this only because he can afford to continue the war,” Zelensky said in a post on Telegram. “He wants the war to continue. It is bad when the powers that be turn a blind eye to this.”
Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it carried out a strike with “precision weapons and strike drones against facilities of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.” Russia denies it has ever hit civilian targets.
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said the attack clashed with the attempts by the Trump administration to reach a settlement that will stop the fighting.
“The senseless attack runs counter to President Trump’s call to stop the killing and end the war,” the embassy posted on X.
Kyiv authorities declared Wednesday an official day of mourning.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the attack during the G-7 summit was Putin’s way of making the world leaders look weak.
“Putin does this on purpose, just during the G7 summit. He sends a signal of total disrespect to the United States and other partners who have called for an end to the killing,” he posted on X.
But then Zelensky was unable to meet with President Trump, because Trump left early. Canada offered new military assistance, but Zelensky told the leaders that “diplomacy is now in a state of crisis” and said they need to continue calling on Trump “to use his real influence” to force an end to the war, in a post on Telegram.
Zelensky said he had hoped to talk to Trump about acquiring more weapons.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney, at the conclusion of the summit, issued a chair statement summarizing deliberations.
“G7 leaders expressed support for President Trump’s efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” it said.
“They recognized that Ukraine has committed to an unconditional ceasefire, and they agreed that Russia must do the same. G7 leaders are resolute in exploring all options to maximize pressure on Russia, including financial sanctions.”
–Separately, Russia has launched a summer offensive on parts of the roughly 1,000-kilomteter (620-mile) front line and has intensified long-range attacks that have struck urban residential areas, such as Monday’s on Kyiv.
–North Korea will send thousands of workers to help rebuild Russia’s war-torn Kursk region, Moscow’s security chief has said.
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu held talks with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on Tuesday, describing the deployment as “fraternal assistance,” Russian state media reported.
Neighboring South Korea and Japan were quick to condemn the plan, with Seoul saying it was a violation of UN sanctions on North Korea.
—Russia’s economy is “on the brink of going into a recession,” the country’s economy minister said Thursday, according to Russian media reports.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov delivered the warning at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the annual event designed to highlight the country’s economic prowess and court foreign investors.
The economy, hit with a slew of sanctions after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, has so far outperformed predictions. High defense spending has propelled growth and kept unemployment low despite fueling inflation.
Leon Aron / Wall Street Journal
“Vladimir Putin continues to confront Ukraine with absurd demands during so-called peace talks. Mr. Putin doesn’t want peace. He wants victory, and he’s playing President Trump to achieve it. Mr. Putin will drag on the war until Mr. Trump gets so bored of mediation and frustrated with U.S. assistance to Ukraine that he gives up on both.
“Moscow’s list of demands would force Ukraine to sacrifice 20% of its territory and eventually its sovereignty by accepting Moscow’s direction of its domestic and foreign affairs. Mr. Putin knows Ukraine won’t accept this, even under White House pressure….
“Mr. Putin’s bet on a U.S. exit is plausible. Mr. Trump’s recent rhetoric on the war signals hopelessness, ignorance and moral myopia. ‘It’s like two young children fighting like crazy,’ Mr. Trump told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office on June 5. ‘There’s some bad blood between the two.’
“In reality, Ukrainians held the most favorable view of Russia of all polled nations before the 2014 Crimea invasion and are rightly infuriated at yet another invasion that has cost them tens of thousands of lives, destroyed civilian infrastructure and led to the kidnapping of thousands of Ukrainian children. Yet Mr. Trump reduces the conflict to inexplicable ‘bad blood’ on both sides.
“Mr. Trump’s moral indifference means he has no motivation, much less urgency, to help Ukraine. As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put it in June 10 congressional testimony, ‘a negotiated peace settlement is in the best interest of both parties and our nation’s interest.’ Mr. Hegseth said the word victory hasn’t been well-defined, but isn’t an end to Russian aggression clear enough?
“Moscow’s measured ‘flexibility’ is keeping futile negotiations alive until Mr. Trump wearily disembarks. As long as Mr. Trump wavers, Mr. Putin can continue proceeding, as Lenin put it, ‘one step forward, two steps back.’”
China: As reported by the South China Morning Post, a high-civilian war game held in Taipei recently has exposed serious vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s defense of its outer perimeter and eastern regions, prompting a retired U.S. admiral to warn that Washington’s involvement depended on “Taiwan’s will to fight.”
In the exercise simulating a 2030 cross-strait conflict, Taiwan lost control of key outlying territories – most notably Penghu, a group of islands 50km (30 miles) east of the main island – as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a multifront assault that quickly outpaced Taiwan’s initial response.
The two-day simulation organized by three Taiwanese think tanks led by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science, is one of the most detailed publicly conducted strategic exercises modelling a full-scale assault by mainland Chinese forces.
It reflects mounting concerns among local strategists and retired military leaders that Taiwan’s eastern flank and offshore islands remain dangerously exposed amid intensifying PLA threats.
Organizers said they would issue a full report later.
Random Musings
—Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: 43% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapprove. 33% of independents approve (May 1-18).
Rasmussen: 52% approve, 47% disapprove (June 20).
A new NBC News survey had President Trump with a 45% approval rating, 55% disapproval, the exact same split as an April survey.
On his handling of some of the big issues of the day, on Inflation: 39% approve, 61% disapprove; Immigration: 51% approve, 49% disapprove; Trade/Tariffs: 40% approve, 60% disapprove.
A new Fox News poll gave Trump a 46% approval rating, 54% disapproving.
As the crisis in the Middle East escalates, 73% of registered voters think Iran poses a real threat to the U.S., a 13-point increase from six years ago (the last time this question was asked). But 49% approve of Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, 46% disapprove.
On border security, 53% approve of Trump’s policies, 46% disapprove. On immigration, 46% approve, 53% disapprove.
Trump does worse on the economy, 40% approve, 58% disapprove, and inflation, 34% to 64%.
On Ukraine, 56% of voters approve of sending money to Kyiv to help fight Russia; a number that has held steady at between 54% and 63% for the last three years.
President Trump weighed in on Truth Social:
“The Crooked FoxNews Polls got the Election WRONG, I won by much more than they said I would, and have been biased against me for years. They are always wrong and negative. It’s why MAGA HATES FoxNews, even though their anchors are GREAT. This has gone on for years, but they never change the incompetent polling company that does their work. Now a new FoxNews poll comes out this morning giving me a little more than 50% at the Border, and yet the Border is miraculously perfect, NOBODY WAS ABLE TO COME IN LAST MONTH. 60,000 people came in with Sleepy Joe in the same month last year. I hate FAKE pollsters, one of the Worst, but Fox will never change their discredited pollster!”
—Minnesota law enforcement authorities announced late Sunday that they had apprehended Vance Boelter, 57, suspected in the weekend murder of a state lawmaker and her spouse, and attempted murder of another state legislator and his wife, which led to the largest manhunt in the state’s history.
Boelter is accused of murdering state House Democratic leader Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark Hortman and injuring State Sen. John Hoffman, a Democrat, and his wife Yvette, in the Minneapolis suburb of Brooklyn Park
Hoffman and his wife were each shot at least eight times but miraculously survived and are recovering in the hospital.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), who announced Boelter’s arrest shortly before midnight after a two-day search, described the shootings as “targeted political violence.”
President Trump told ABC’s Rachel Scott during a weekend phone interview that the shootings were “a terrible thing,” but he sidestepped public calls to dial back political broadsides. While decrying the murders, Trump described Gov. Walz as a “grossly incompetent person.”
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) said it’s time to call politicians out for using dangerous rhetoric in remarks and on social media.
“Some people need to look in the mirror and say, ‘Hey, I’ve got to stop this or stop my colleagues from doing this because it makes it much worse,” she told CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Former Vice President Mike Pence said the shootings “must be universally condemned.”
It turns out that among the chilling details released by authorities Monday, Boelter not only went to the homes of the two legislators early Saturday morning, but had tried to gain access to two other homes.
Boelter impersonated a police officer, while operating a vehicle that “looked exactly like an SUV squad car. It was equipped with lights. He also wore a creepy silicon mask. A manifesto was found that identified many lawmakers and other officials.
Republican Senator Mike Lee (Utah) removed three social-media posts mocking and blaming leftists in the wake of the attacks, after he faced backlash from Senate colleagues.
“This is what happens when Marxists don’t get their way,” he posted alongside a photo of the suspect. ‘Nightmare on Waltz Street,” he wrote in another post, an apparent reference to Gov. Walz.
Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D), who was friends with Hortman, confronted Sen. Lee off the Senate floor and said after she was glad Lee had deleted his posts, but she was “awaiting any sign that Sen. Lee understands that what he wrote has an impact on real people.”
Sen. Klobuchar also talked to Lee.
—President Trump reported more than $57 million in income from his family-linked cryptocurrency venture – one of several sources of revenue the commander in chief listed in his financial disclosure form last Friday.
The disclosure, released by the Office of Government Ethics, shows Trump’s stake in crypto platform World Liberty Financial netted him $57,355,532, one of his largest sources of income last year.
The 234-page document also lists several royalty payments the president received for selling items with his name and likeness, including $3,000,000 for the “Save America” coffee table book, $2,500,000 for “Trump Sneakers and Fragrances,” $2,800,000 for Trump-branded watches, $1,055,100 for his “45 Guitar” and $1,306,035 for “The Greenwood Bible.”
He also received $700,000 in fees for speaking engagements.
—The Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a Tennessee law that prohibits some medical treatments for transgender youths, rejecting arguments that it violated the Constitution and shielding similar laws in more than 20 other states.
The vote was 6 to 3, with the court’s three liberal members in dissent.
—President Trump, in a clear shot at the Juneteenth holiday without specifically naming it, posted on Truth Social:
“Too many non-working holidays in America. It is costing our Country $BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to keep all these businesses closed,” Trump wrote. “The workers don’t want it either! Soon we’ll end up having a holiday for every once working day of the year. It must change if we are going to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.”
—The Louvre, the world’s most-visited museum and a global symbol of art, beauty and endurance was brought to a halt by its own striking staff, who say the institution is crumbling under the weight of mass tourism.
Thousands of stranded and confused visitors, tickets in hand, were corralled into unmoving lines by I.M. Pei’s glass pyramid.
I tell people who go to Paris, avoid the Louvre at all costs. The message will eventually get through.
—Pope Leo XIV, born in Chicago in 1955, spoke in a video message to tens of thousands of spectators at Rate Field, the Chicago White Sox ballpark that was a staple of his youth growing up. Leo’s message was part of a celebration of the first American pope at the stadium of his beloved ball team. The South Side native’s message was aimed particularly at young people.
“That restlessness you feel in your hearts, we shouldn’t look for ways to put out the fire, to numb ourselves to the difficulties we feel, we should get in touch with our hearts and realize that God can work through it,” said Leo, speaking in a pre-recorded message to people gathered at the sunny ballpark. “That light on the horizon is not easy to see and yet as we come together we discover that light is growing brighter and brighter.”
“I’d like to take this opportunity to invite each one of you to look into your hearts,” Leo said. “God is present and in many ways He’s calling you to look into your heart, to discover how important it is for each one of us to pay attention to God in our hearts, to that longing for love we may feel.”
—Flash flooding caused by torrential rains in northern West Virginia killed at least 6, others missing after 3-4 inches of rain in some spots fell in 30-40 minutes on Saturday night. The unexpected deluge overwhelmed local waterways and infrastructure and submerged vehicles in small towns east of the Ohio River.
And for the record, I have to go back to last Friday, when the death toll rose to 11 people in drenching rains in San Antonio, with others missing. More than 7 inches of rain fell in the span of hours in parts of the nation’s seventh-largest city. Some people climbed up trees to escape rapidly rising waters and authorities said firefighters made more than 70 rescues across San Antonio.
At least 10 people were rescued from bushes and trees about a mile away from their submerged vehicles, the San Antonio Fire Department said in a statement.
Over the next two weeks, extreme levels of humidity are forecast to hit around 40 states, with 170 million people experiencing air temperatures over 90 degrees.
The New York area is going to see heat index readings of up to 110 Sunday through Wednesday.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $3384
Oil $74.93
Bitcoin $103,389 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.21; Diesel: $3.65 [$3.45 – $3.80]
Returns for the week 6/16-6/20
Dow Jones +0.02% …up 9 points [42206]
S&P 500 -0.2% [5967]
S&P MidCap N/A
Russell 2000 N/A
Nasdaq +0.2% [19447]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-6/20/25
Dow Jones -0.8%
S&P 500 +1.5%
S&P MidCap -3.1%
Russell 2000 -5.4%
Nasdaq +0.7%
Bulls 40.8
Bears 26.5
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
