For the week 6/23-6/27

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,366

What a week…including this afternoon.  I’ve told you how I begin the process for Week in Review as soon as I post the last column, i.e., Friday evening, and I begin to put a dent in it Monday, and then everyday of the week from there.

But with the momentous events of last Saturday night and the U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, I wrote the beginning of the column starting Sunday morning, recognizing if I didn’t, I’d never catch up later on in the week.

So I cover it all in great detail below, just as I have done with all the big events for the last 26 years.  I would just open with the fact that the mission was spectacular, seemingly flawless in its execution, as spelled out by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine on Thursday, and the brave members of the U.S. military deserve our praise.  The mission, as Gen. Caine said, was 10 years in the making.

But it’s also a good time to apply my adage, ‘wait 24 hours,’ which in the case of Iran will be weeks and months.

President Trump has said no written agreement with Tehran is necessary at this stage because their nuclear weapons program is finished, destroyed, “obliterated.”

But on the issue of an agreement, that is a necessity.  The U.S. and Iran (in conjunction with Israel and our European allies) must get in writing that Tehran will allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the facilities that were hit, and the IAEA must be allowed access to new potential sites it uncovers.

Plus, Iran must reveal what happened to the 400 kilos of enriched uranium and the status of all centrifuges (including location of same).

So I wrote the above Friday morning…and then at 1:09 p.m., Trump posted on Truth Social a most blistering note to Ayatollah Khamenei, after yesterday, the ‘Supreme Leader’ declared Iran had won the war.  Who knows what will happen next.

—

Meanwhile, we still have the very big issue of Russia’s illegal, vicious war on Ukraine.  There is no ambiguity.  Vladimir Putin does not want a ceasefire.

Putin suggested during an address recently that the “whole of Ukraine” belongs to his country, even though Russia only controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory.

He made the comments on June 20 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, where he also indicated that he wouldn’t “rule out” taking the northern Sumy region, which Russian troops have been rapidly advancing into in recent weeks. The regional capital of 250,000 people is located just over a dozen miles from the Russian border.

“Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours,” Putin said.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, condemned Putin’s remarks, which he called “deranged.”

“Putin’s cynical statements demonstrate complete disdain for U.S. peace efforts,” he wrote on X.  “While the United States and the rest of the world have called for an immediate end to the killing, Russia’s top war criminal discusses plans to seize more Ukrainian territory and kill more Ukrainians.” [Defense One]

This week at the NATO summit, a highly successful one for President Trump, he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Trump made no commitments on further military aid to Ukraine, but at least he said the meeting was good and he was looking into getting Ukraine more Patriot missile defense systems. More below….

—

As it all went down, blow by blow, day by day….

Early Sunday morning, Iran time, the United States bombed Iran’s three main uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow in a brilliantly planned mission, involving deception*, that included seven B-2 stealth bombers, 125 U.S. aircraft in all, with refueling planes and surveillance aircraft, all helping to clear the way and offer protection in case Iran’s air defenses fired at the B-2s.  But as we learned in a press conference early Sunday morning, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Dan Caine said Iran never fired a shot while the B-2s dropped their payload, 14 GBU-57s, “bunker buster” bombs, employing them for the first time in conflict with devastating effect on Fordow.

At the same time, U.S. attack submarines in the region fired scores of Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan, with 75 precision-guided weapons in all.

*Among the deceptions was the ‘leak’ Saturday that two B-2 bombers had left Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri heading west to Guam, and then possibly Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.  Instead, seven B-2s had left after midnight Friday headed east in what would be an 18-hour flight to the Iranian targets.

Addressing the nation Saturday night, President Trump said Iran’s “key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”

“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s no. 1 state sponsor of terror,” said the president.  “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater – and a lot easier.”

[Gen. Caine said Sunday morning: “Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction,” noting a full assessment will take some time.]

Administration officials insisted afterwards the strikes were limited to destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities, and not regime change.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu early Sunday morning Israeli time, praised Trump’s decision to strike, saying the U.S. “has done what no other country could do.”

“Congratulations President Trump.  Your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history,” Netanyahu told the Israeli people…and the world.

“In Operation Rising Lion, Israel has done truly amazing things, but in tonight’s action against Iran’s nuclear facilities America has been truly unsurpassed.  It has done what no other country on Earth could do,” he went on.

“History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons,” he added.

“His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace.”

Netanyahu has spent much of the last 15 years attempting to persuade his American allies that only military action (and only American munitions) could destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this.  NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!  Thank you for your attention to this matter. [7:50 PM, June 21]

“This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD.  IRAN MUST NOW AGEE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!” [8:13 PM]

“ANY RETALIATION BY IRAN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL BE MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT. THANK YOU! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES” [10:35 PM]

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, responded on X, saying the U.S.’s move was “outrageous and will have everlasting consequences.”

“Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people,” he said.

Tehran’s nuclear regulatory agency said there was no sign of radiation contamination at the sites and that it had taken precautions in anticipation of an attack.

There was no immediate response from Ayatollah Khamenei.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s three most significant nuclear sites on Saturday helped rid the world of a grave nuclear threat and was a large step toward restoring U.S. deterrence. It also creates an opportunity for a more peaceful Middle East, if the nations of the region will seize it.

“ ‘Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,’ Mr. Trump said Saturday night.  He made clear Iran brought this on itself.  ‘For 40 years, Iran has been saying ‘death to America,’ ‘death to Israel.’ They’ve been killing our people,’ he said, citing 1,000 Americans killed by Iran-supplied roadside bombs and other means.  A nuclear Iran was a perilous threat to Israel, the nearby Arab states, and America.

“Mr. Trump gave Iran every chance to resolve this peacefully.  The regime flouted his 60-day deadline to make a deal.  Then Israel attacked, destroying much of the nuclear program and achieving air supremacy, and still the President gave Iran another chance to come to terms.  The regime wouldn’t even abandon domestic uranium enrichment.  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wanted a bomb more than peace.

“Military conflict is often unpredictable and the potential for Iranian retaliation can’t be dismissed, no matter how self-destructive it would be. Iran and its Iraqi proxies have threatened U.S. regional bases with missile fire, but Mr. Trump warned that ‘future attacks will be far greater’ if Iran goes down that road. The U.S. has evacuated some personnel and brought military assets into the region.  If the regime values self-preservation, it will give up its nuclear ambitions and stand down.

“Much of the press has fixated on the idea that Mr. Trump has now joined or even started a conflict.  But Iran has been waging regional and terrorist war for decades.  It’s as likely that he has helped end it.  Leaving Iran with a hardened nuclear enrichment facility after an Israeli military campaign would have been a recipe for maximum danger, all but asking Iran to sprint to a bomb.

“At the same time, the Israeli campaign yielded an unrivaled strategic opportunity.  Suddenly, Iran’s airspace was uncontested. Its substantial ballistic-missile program was degraded.  Several of its proxies had been bludgeoned into silence.  Its nuclear program has been reduced to a few key sites, one of which only U.S. weapons could be trusted to penetrate.

“The opportunity to act and the danger of standing pat may have proved decisive. We would say that they left Mr. Trump little choice, except U.S. Presidents always have a choice, and have been known to kick the can down the road.  To his credit, Mr. Trump didn’t, hitting the Fordow enrichment site as well as Natanz and Isfahan.  This shows the President wanted to leave no doubt about Iran’s nuclear programs and take it all down.

“Good for him for meeting the moment, despite the doubts from part of his political base. The isolationists were wrong at every step leading up to Saturday, and now they are again predicting another Iraq, if not a road to World War III.  Mr. Trump had to act to stop the threat in front of him to protect America, which is his first obligation as President.

“ ‘History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons,’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday night.  Mr. Trump thanked him and said ‘we worked as a team.’  The Israelis, who proved their strategic value as an ally, would like to complete the mission by destroying what remains of Iran’s missile infrastructure.  They deserve a green light, especially as those missiles are threatening U.S. bases.

“The chatter about TACO – ‘Trump always chickens out’ – will now quiet down, but the more significant reassessment has to do with U.S. foreign policy.  The Obamaites of the left, and lately of the right, counseled that the world had to bow to Iranian intimidation.  The best we could hope for was a flimsy deal that bribed Iran with billions and left open its path to a bomb. They were wrong.”

Meanwhile, the top two GOP leaders in Congress were briefed on the planned Iran attacks ahead of time, but not Democratic leaders.

“Our commander-in-chief has made a deliberate – and correct – decision to eliminate the existential threat posed by the Iranian regime,” wrote Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“Only American weapons could do what has been done,” said Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  “This is not the start of a forever war. There will not be American boots on the ground in Iran. This was a precise, limited strike, which was necessary and by all accounts was very successful.”

As for damage assessment Sunday morning, satellite images showed damage to the entryways to Iran’s underground nuclear site at Fordow.

Among Iran’s targets for potential retaliation are U.S. military hubs in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq and the hundreds remaining in Syria.  Or it could go after U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.  Or…it could try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a third of the world’s seaborne crude passes each day (20% of total global supply).  Oil prices would skyrocket should this occur.  But, Iran also uses the strait for its own oil exports, its key source of foreign currency.

In an immediate response to the attacks on its uranium enrichment sites, Iran fired missiles into Israel, injuring 86, a few of them critically, as at least 27 ballistic missiles were launched in two waves, striking 10 different locations, including Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Israel sent its fighter jets into Iran to strike a number of targets.

–Among the responses from international leaders to the U.S. strike on Iran, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer:

“Iran’s nuclear program is a grave threat to international security.  Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the U.S. has taken action to alleviate that threat. The situation in the Middle East remains volatile and stability in the region is a priority.  We urge Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis.”

The Russian foreign ministry said in a statement it “strongly condemned” the United States’ bombings of nuclear sites in Iran, calling the attacks “irresponsible” and a “gross violation of international law.”

“It is already clear that a dangerous escalation has begun, fraught with further undermining of regional and global security.”

Rather rich, coming from a regime that has grossly violated international law since 2014 with its actions in Ukraine.

Sunday afternoon, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be ‘monumental.’  The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill shown by our military. Thank you!”

And….

“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

But over the weekend, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the “mission was not and has not been about regime change,” and Vice President Vance has commented that the U.S. “doesn’t want to achieve regime change.”

Monday, Iran then launched its retaliatory attack, selecting an American base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East.

President Trump took to Truth Social Monday afternoon:

“Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered.  There have been 14 missiles fired – 13 were knocked down, and 1 was ‘set free,’ because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction.  I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done.  Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.  I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.  Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.  Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

A Qatari military officer said Iran fired 19 missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and one impacted the facility but caused no casualties.  The number of missiles differed from a figure given by Trump, who said 14 missiles were fired.

The missile attack was well-telegraphed, and prelude to a ceasefire.  The Iranian regime could claim the strike was effective in addressing its people.

President Trump early Monday evening on Truth Social:

“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and complete their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.  During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL.  On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’  This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!  God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

“DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”

Later Monday evening:

“Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’  I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS!  Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH.  The future for Israel & Iran is UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE.  GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!”

Early Tuesday morning:

“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT.  PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!”

President Trump then said on social media early Tuesday morning that Israel and Iran have agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” to be phased in over 24 hours.

Iran’s foreign minister said Iran will stop its attacks if Israel stops its airstrikes by 4 a.m. local time in Tehran.

“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on social media. “However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”

Iran did launch a final onslaught of missiles targeting Israel that killed at least four people, hitting an apartment building in Beer Sheba, while Israel launched a blitz of airstrikes targeting sites across Iran before dawn.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Iran had “completely violated” the ceasefire .  Overnight, just before the ceasefire started, Israel launched more than 100 munitions targeting dozens of sites in Tehran, including missile launchers and a radar site.

Trump then put out a series of Truth Social posts:

“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS.  IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATON. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”

“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran.  All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran.  Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”

“IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!”

Trump then told reporters at the White House before departing for the NATO summit at The Hague that in his view, both sides had violated the nascent agreement he had announced earlier.

“They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said.  “I’m not happy with Israel.”

Then, Tuesday afternoon, a preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, an arm of the Pentagon, relying on military damage assessments after the bombings, found that the attack on the three Iranian nuclear facilities only set back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by a few months, countering claims by President Trump and the White House, according to people familiar with the intelligence.

U.S. intel agencies frequently produce classified reports that are later revised, sometimes substantially, as more information is collected.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a post on X that the “alleged ‘assessment’ is flat out wrong,” and described the report as classified at the top-secret level.  She blamed an “anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community” for leaking the report to the media.  CNN first reported on the assessment.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also challenged the intelligence report.  “Based on everything we have seen, and I’ve seen it all, our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” he said Tuesday, adding: “Anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.”

Monday, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said the U.S. bombing caused “very significant” damage to Fordow.

“At this time, no one, including the IAEA, is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow,” Grossi said in a statement.  “Given the explosive payload utilized and the extremely vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred.”

President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“FAKE NEWS CNN, TOGETHER WITH THE FAILING NEW YORK TIMES, HAVE TEAMED UP IN AN ATTEMPT TO DEMEAN ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY. THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED! BOTH THE TIMES AND CNN ARE GETTING SLAMMED BY THE PUBLIC!”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“If the cease-fire is a prelude to Iranian concessions, then it will be an historic step toward a larger peace. Iran would dismantle what’s left of the nuclear program and end its proxy warfare across the region in return for an end to sanctions.

“But if the cease-fire is a way for Mr. Trump to call it a day by handcuffing Israel, it will give Iran time to rebuild and retool for the next round of war. That kind of cease-fire would be an historic mistake and squander the gains of the last fortnight.

“Israel had established air supremacy over Iran and was striking the regime’s instruments of domestic repression.  Iran had no substantial reply to U.S. strikes on its most valuable assets.  Yet it was allowed a cease-fire without any public commitments.  This raises the question of Iranian intent after the shooting has stopped.  If the regime still plans to build nuclear weapons and destroy Israel, then Mr. Trump’s ‘Peace and Harmony’ is a desert mirage.

“Mr. Trump could offer two tests of the regime’s willingness to change.  First, will it grant the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspectors immediate access to examine its nuclear sites? If not, Iran has no intention of dismantling what remains, especially since it isn’t clear how much enriched uranium Iran retains.

“Second, will Iran publicly recognize Israel’s right to exist and renounce its desire to wipe the Jewish state off the map?  That’s the Iranian regime’s forever war.  If its leaders won’t renounce it, they aren’t interested in peace, only in tapping along Mr. Trump until they can recover and fight again.  That’s something the President needs to know to prosecute the peace.

“Vigilance will be required to secure the war’s gains, and the signs Tuesday from Mr. Trump are cause for concern.  Israel and Iran exchanged serious fire in the hours before the cease-fire, as is common, but Iran fired three missiles after the truce went into effect. In response Mr. Trump unloaded his anger on…Israel, for planning to retaliate….

“By coming down hard on Israel, Mr. Trump solidified his cease-fire. But he also sent Iran the message that the U.S. will restrain Israel to preserve quiet.  That won’t convince Iran never to rebuild its nuclear facilities, as Mr. Trump promises.  Iran needs to know that Israel has his backing to stop any renewed nuclear effort before it becomes deadly….

“On Tuesday Iran’s nuclear chief said that his agency is assessing the damage to its nuclear industry and is making arrangements to restore it.

“The President seemed to treat Israel and Iran as two equivalent threats to his diplomacy.  ‘We basically have two countries that are fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f— they’re doing,’ Mr. Trump said.  Here’s what they’re doing: Iran fights because it is devoted to Israel’s destruction. Israel fights because it is devoted to not being destroyed.

“Israel took on the bulk of the risk and the fighting against Iran, which dramatically improved America’s position in the region.  The U.S. contributed by doing what only it can.  Now the peace is up to Mr. Trump – is he offering Iran a reckoning or a reprieve?”

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“The most urgent postwar challenge will be finding – and destroying – Iran’s stockpile of 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which could become fuel for a ‘dirty bomb’ in weeks if it isn’t controlled. Iran’s Isfahan nuclear facility, where this material was thought to be held, was bombed by both Israel and the United States. But the New York Times reported that IAEA director Rafael Grossi believed it had been moved before the attack.

“Israeli and American sources say they know where the 400 kilograms are located. We can only hope so. They need to find it – quick – and dispose of it safely. Otherwise, the fuse on the Iranian bomb is still lit.”

A top Iranian nuclear official, Mohammad Eslami, who is the head of the country’s atomic energy organization, insisted that Iran “planned ahead of time” to ensure there would be ‘no interruption to our nuclear program.”

Wednesday, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission issued a statement that finds the Fordow site is now “inoperable.”

“The devastating U.S. strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable,” the statement reads.

“We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, have set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.

“This achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed the country’s nuclear facilities had been “badly damaged” in American strikes.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Baghaei refused to go into detail but conceded the Sunday strikes by the B-2 bombers using bunker buster bombs had been significant.

“Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure,” he said.

At a press conference at the NATO summit, President Trump told reporters, “They don’t know,” referring to the analysts, before adding, “I believe it was total obliteration.” But then he said, “The intelligence says, ‘We don’t know, it could have been very severe.’  That’s what the intelligence says. So I guess that’s correct, but I think we take the ‘we don’t know.’  It was very severe. It was obliteration,” he said at The Hague.

Trump said the U.S. would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement, citing the damage that American bombing had done.

“We’re going to talk to them next week,” Trump said.  “We may sign an agreement. I don’t know, to me, I don’t think it’s necessary.”

The president said the conflict was effectively “over.”  “Can it start again?  I guess someday it can. It could maybe start soon,” he said.

Trump didn’t say at what level U.S.-Iran talks would resume.

The IAEA said Tuesday that inspections in the country should resume “as soon as possible” to determine what’s happened to Iran’s stocks of uranium enriched to 60% levels.

The UN nuclear watchdog said it last verified those inventories a few days before Israel’s June 13 attack, and their whereabouts is now unknown.

Trump said the bunker-buster strikes had eliminated some key risks by burying the country’s materials under “granite, concrete and steel”

“We think everything nuclear is down there,” he said.  “They didn’t take it out.”

Wednesday evening, Iran’s parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA.

The move needs the final approval of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to be enforced.

In parliament, 221 lawmakers voted in favor and one abstained, with no votes against from those present in the 290-seat legislature, according to state TV.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf was quoted by state media as saying Iran would accelerate its civilian nuclear program.

The parliament speaker was quoted as saying the IAEA had refused even to appear to condemn the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and “has put its international credibility up for sale.”

Thursday, Supreme Leader Khamenei claimed victory over Israel and said his country had “delivered a hand slap to America’s face,” in his first public comments since a ceasefire was declared.

Khamenei spoke in a video broadcast on Iranian state television, his first appearance since June 19, looking and sounding more tired than he did only a week ago.

He told viewers that the U.S. had only intervened in the war because “it felt that if it did not intervene, the Zionist regime would be utterly destroyed.”

Khamenei said that the U.S. “achieved no gains from this war.”

“The Islamic Republic was victorious and, in retaliation, delivered a hand slap to America’s face,” he said, in apparent reference to the Iranian missile attack on an American base in Qatar on Monday, which caused no casualties.

The 86-year-old Khamenei hasn’t been seen in public since taking shelter in a secret location after the outbreak of the war June 13 when Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeted top military commanders and scientists.

In his appearance Thursday, he sat in front of plain brown curtains to give his address, similar to his June 19 message.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Thursday that the country’s nuclear facilities had sustained “significant and serious damages,” the first official acknowledgment of the extent of the damages caused by U.S. strikes.

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran was still “surveilling the damages and losses, Araghchi said in interview with Iran’s state television.  But, he added, “I have to say, the losses have not been small, and our facilities have been seriously damaged.”

Iran’s Guardian Council, which has veto power over legislation in the country, approved the bill passed by Parliament that would effectively ban all cooperation with the IAEA.

President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, must still decide whether to enact the law, but Araghchi said the government would fully cooperate with the law.  “Without a doubt we are obliged to enforce this law,” he said.  From now, he added, Iran’s “relationship with the agency will take a different shape.”

Thursday, Rafeal Grossi said the centrifuges at Fordow are “no longer operational” after the U.S. attack.

Grossi told French broadcaster RFI that while evaluating the damage from the strikes using satellite images alone was difficult, given the power of the bombs dropped and the technical characteristics of the plant, “we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational.”

Grossi reiterated the giant machines that spin at supersonic speeds to enrich uranium – require a high degree of precision and are vulnerable to intense vibrations, he said.  “There was no escaping significant physical damage,” he said.  “So we can come to a fairly accurate technical conclusion.”

He said, however, that it would be “too much” to assert that Iran’s nuclear program had been “wiped out.”

A CBS News/YouGov poll, conducted in the three days following the military operation, had 56 percent of respondents say they disapprove of the strikes, while 44 percent approve.  [Republicans overwhelmingly approve of the strikes – at 85 percent – while only 13 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of independents share this view.]

So the big question remains. What happened to the country’s 400 kilograms, or about 880 pounds, of enriched uranium, which would provide enough nuclear fuel for 10 bombs should Iran decide to weaponize it?  Or as David Ignatius noted above…turn it into a dirty bomb.  The other issue is whether any of the advanced centrifuges survived the strikes, or if there was a secret location where some of them were stored.

You need UN inspectors to figure this out definitively.

Well, as alluded to above, early Friday afternoon, Trump posted:

“Why would the co-called ‘Supreme Leader,’ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the War with Israel, when he knows his statement is a lie.  It is not so.  As a man of great faith, he is not supposed to lie. His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life. I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH, and he does not have to say, ‘THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!’  In fact, in the final act of the War, I demanded that Israel bring back a very large group of planes, which were heading directly to Tehran, looking for a big day, perhaps the final knockout!  Tremendous damage would have ensued, and many Iranians would have been killed.  It was going to be the biggest attack of the War, by far.  During the last few days, I was working on the possible removal of sanctions, and other things, which would have given a much better chance to Iran at a full, fast, and complete recovery – The sanctions are BITING!  But no, instead I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanctions relief, and more.  Iran has to get back into the World Order flow, or things will only get worse for them. They are always so angry, hostile, and unhappy, and look at what it has gotten them – A burned out, blown up Country, with no future, a decimated Military, a horrible Economy, and DEATH all around them. They have no hope, and it will only get worse!  I wish the leadership of Iran would realize that you often get more with HONEY than you do with VINEGAR. PEACE!!!”

–Separately, drones attacked military bases in Iraq overnight Monday, including some housing U.S. troops, the Iraqi army and a U.S. military official said Tuesday.

No casualties were reported.

Some Iran-backed Iraqi militias had previously threatened to target American bases if the U.S. attacked Iran.

—Iran’s health ministry said Tuesday that Israeli attacks since the war began on June 13 had killed 606 people and wounded 5,332.  Attacks the past 24 hours before the ceasefire had killed 107.

—Another high-profile Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in an Israeli strike, Iran state TV said Tuesday, making him the latest in a list of atomic experts who are said to have been killed over the last 12 days.

The Council on Foreign Relations on Monday said that Israeli strikes had killed at least 10 nuclear scientists since the Israel-Iran war broke out.

–The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War put out a note on the potential for regime change in Iran: “Unspecified Iranian leaders have reportedly developed a contingency plan to govern Iran without (leader Ayatollah Khamenei) in the event that Khamenei is killed or informally sidelined,” ISW wrote in its Monday evening assessment.  “These efforts suggest that senior officials are highly concerned about the stability of the regime and seek to ensure regime survival in the event that Khamenei is killed or removed,” ISW writes.

–In Gaza, seven Israeli soldiers were killed in the southern city of Khan Younis when an explosive device affixed to their armored vehicle detonated, an Israeli military official said Wednesday.

Over 860 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the war began with the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack – including more than 400 during the fighting inside Gaza.

The Palestinian death toll inside Gaza passed 56,000.

—

Wall Street and the Economy

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared before Congress for his twice-yearly testimony before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.  And he left it clear that when it came to cutting interest rates, he still wanted to see more evidence.

Appearing before the House, Powell said: “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

“There will be some inflation from tariffs coming,” Powell then said under questioning from the Senate. “Not yet, but over the course of the coming months.”

Powell noted that the duties would likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and “some of that is going to fall on the consumer. We’re just kind of waiting to see more data on that.”

The chair wouldn’t commit to any specific timeline for cuts, but his comments reinforced market expectations that September is the earliest likely window, despite some recent comments from Fed governors talking of cutting in July*. Asked whether a rate cut could come at the Fed’s July meeting, Powell said the decision depends on incoming data, particularly around inflation and employment.

*Fed governor Michelle Bowman said in Prague on Monday that she supported a rate cut “as soon” as July, joining Fed governor Christopher Waller who said the same last week.

“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market,” Bowman said.

Powell of course faced criticism from some Republicans in both Houses.

But the Fed chair reiterated that most central bank officials do support cutting the Fed’s key rate this year.  And Powell added that it is possible that tariffs won’t increase inflation by very much.

President Trump told reporters that he is actively considering a replacement for Powell, and that he is down to three or four candidates.

“I know within three or four people who I’m going to pick,” he said Wednesday without offering specific names.

Trump didn’t address the question of whether he is looking to fire Powell or announce his final pick quickly in part to undercut Powell’s authority for the remainder of his term.

Powell has said he intends to serve out his term as chair, which ends in May 2026.

“He goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he’s terrible,” Trump added Wednesday.  He called him worse.  In a Truth Social post, for example, a “very dumb, hardheaded person.”

Which brought us to Friday’s key personal consumption expenditures index readings for May; the PCE the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer.  And headline inflation was 0.1%, 2.3% year-over-year, both in line with expectations, but the core rate, ex-food and energy, what really matters, was a tick above consensus, 0.2%, 2.7% Y/Y, so some ammunition for the hawks on the FOMC to certainly stand pat in July.

Personal income in May fell 0.4%, and consumption was down 0.1%, both far worse than expectations.

But, again, this is May.  Come the June and July numbers, if they remain tame, it’s hard for the Fed to argue against a cut in September.

Prior to Friday’s PCE report, Boston Fed President Susan Collins on Thursday signaled she feels July would be too soon to consider cutting rates.

“We’re only going to have really one more month of data before the July meeting,” she told Bloomberg News.  “I expect to want to see more information than that.”

[The Fed will get a jobs report and a reading on CPI/PPI prior to their July 29-30 meeting, but the next PCE is the following day.]

In other economic data this week, existing-home sales rose 0.8% in May over April, but fell 0.7% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The median existing-home price for all housing types was up 1.3% from a year ago to $422,800.

New home sales slumped badly in May, a 623,000 pace, down 13.7% from April.  Sales were far lower than economists expected.

The Case-Shiller home price index for April was down -0.3% over March in the 20-city index, up 3.4% year-over-year vs. 4.1% prior.

A May reading on durable goods was off the charts good, rising 16.4%, but up just 0.5% ex-transportation, though the latter was better than expected.

And we had a final reading on first-quarter GDP, which was -0.5%, after the first two readings were -0.2%. The figure was distorted by a surge in imports in the quarter ahead of the tariffs, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

What was a bit worrisome was consumption was revised down in the quarter from up 1.2% to 0.5%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the second quarter is now 2.9%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.77%, back below 6.80%.

On the budget front, last Sunday, President Trump touted the “great unity” among Republicans following the U.S. strikes on Iran, and he called on the party to focus on getting his agenda bill through Congress to his desk.

“Now let’s get the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill done.”

The tax-and-spending megabill centers on extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, delivering on the spirit of his campaign promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, and providing big lump sums of money for border security and defense. Those new costs are partially offset by spending cuts, in particular to Medicaid.

Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough is a key player in the process, as she issues guidance on which measures don’t fit within the so-called budget-reconciliation process.

But by Thursday, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune planning for a vote as soon as Friday, some Republican senators were pushing back hard on hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicaid cuts.

Two Republicans were a hard “no” on the bill – Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Ron Johnson (Wis.) – but others such as Susan Collins (Maine) and Josh Hawley (Mo.) are on the fence after the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday circulated a proposal to establish a $15 billion health care provider relief fund.

“I believe we need a $100 billion provider-relief fund.  I don’t think that solves the entire problem. The Senate cuts in Medicaid are far deeper than the House cuts, and I think that’s problematic as well,” Collins said. Other changes to the House bill also imperil approval in that chamber.

The goal is still for a Senate vote on Saturday/Sunday, with the House voting Tuesday, but this is a huge stretch.  President Trump’s July 4 deadline is totally artificial.

Lastly, on the trade front, I can’t be the only one who was under the illusion that early in the month, the U.S. and China had reached a temporary agreement on China’s export of rare earth minerals amid the trade truce announced in May.

But apparently China kept stalling and so the on-off-on-again U.S.-China trade deal (framework)  was signed two days ago, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.  Beijing confirmed some aspects of a framework accord today, Friday, which includes a pledge to deliver rare earths but doesn’t address thorny issues like fentanyl trafficking.  There was no detailed readout.  There are no details.

President Trump, speaking at an event aimed at promoting the Big, Beautiful Bill at the White House on Thursday, suddenly offered that trade deals with China and 10 other countries were imminent, including a “very big” one with India.

And Trump said: “We are starting to open up China, things that could have never happened.”

A White House official then said: “The administration and China agreed to an additional understanding for a framework to implement the Geneva agreement.”

Sec. Lutnick told Bloomberg: “They’re going to deliver rare earths to us” and once they do that “we’ll take down our countermeasures.”

As in, we are a long way off before a definitive trade deal between the U.S. and China is reached.

China’s big issue on the rare earths front is that it is vetting buyers (before issuing export licenses) to ensure that materials are not diverted to U.S. military uses.  This has slowed down the licensing process to a crawl.

In early June, China had reportedly granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three U.S. automakers, as supply chain disruptions began to surface from the export curbs on those materials.

Back then, President Trump had said after talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on June 5, that there was a deal with China in which Beijing would supply magnets and rare earth minerals while the U.S. would allow Chinese students in the colleges and universities.

But now we’re learning Chinese authorities continued to drag out approval of Western companies’ requests for the critical components.

Western companies say they are receiving barely enough magnets for their factories and have little visibility of future supplies.  Firms are waiting weeks as Chinese authorities scrutinize their applications – only to be rejected in some cases. And applications for raw rare earths, which are used to make magnets, are rarely granted.

This is a freakin’ mess.  Automakers are doing all they can to avoid factory shutdowns.

And as for a deal between the U.S. and the European Union, that isn’t going to be easy, as Europe’s leaders are pushing hard for governments to buy local when they start spending their vastly increased military budgets because they’re wary of deepening their dependence on the U.S., especially given his ‘chummy’ relationship with Vladimir Putin.  But they may have no choice but to buy American.

In general, tariff negotiations with the Trump administration are running into one roadblock after another, as partners including Japan, India and the EU balk at signing deals without knowing how badly they’ll be hit by separate levies on exports including chips, drugs and steel.

Problem is, governments seeking agreements to whittle down country-by-country tariffs President Trump announced on April 2, and then suspended till July 9, have no idea where those sectoral levies will land.  For many, industry-specific tariffs may be more damaging than the broader levies.

Well, it got more chaotic at 1:44 p.m. this afternoon, when President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country.  They are obviously copying the European Union, which has done the same thing, and is currently under discussion with us, also.  Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately. We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period.  Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Europe and Asia

We had flash PMI readings for the month of June in the eurozone, and the composite reading was 50.2, unchanged from May (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  The manufacturing PMI was 51.0, with services at 50.0. [S&P Global / Hamburg Commercial Bank]

Germany: manufacturing 52.6 (39-mo. high), services 49.4.
France: mfg. 47.2, services 48.7.

UK: mfg. 47.1, services 51.3.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“The eurozone economy is struggling to gain momentum.  For six months now, growth has been minimal, with activity in the service sector stagnating and manufacturing output rising only moderately.  In Germany, there are signs of a cautious improvement in the situation, but France continues to drag its feet.  The momentum evident in the official growth figure of 0.6 percent for the first quarter is unlikely to have carried over into the second quarter, especially since special factors such as Ireland’s unusual jump in growth inflated this figure.”

Turning to Asia…China held its National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting this week.  No big economic news.

Japan’s flash PMI readings for June were released…manufacturing 50.4, services 51.5.

May retail sales were up 2.2% year-on-year.

–The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were solidly in record territory this morning, but in the afternoon, President Trump’s post on trade and Canada rattled traders.  The market fell, but in the end, rallied back and the S&P and Nasdaq are at new all-time highs, 6173 and 20273, respectively, up 3.4% and 4.2%.  The Dow Jones gained 3.8% to 43819.

But I look for fireworks over the next 72 hours, perhaps.  Just an opinion.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.24%  2-yr. 3.74%  10-yr. 4.28%  30-yr. 4.85%

The yields on the 2- and 10-year fell sharply on the rising hopes for rate cuts, 16 and 10 basis points, respectively. But in all honesty, with the late developments on the trade front and the Middle East this afternoon, who the heck knows what will happen next week, plus we have a key jobs report.

—The price of crude cratered Monday and Tuesday with the apparent move by Iran to de-escalate, and then the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which eased concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

[When oil was over $74 early Monday morning, President Trump posted: “EVERONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.  I’M WATCHING!  YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.  DON’T DO IT!”]

—Shell is holding early stage talks to acquire rival BP in what would be the largest oil deal in a generation, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Acquiring BP would put Shell on firmer footing to challenge larger competitors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.  But a tie-up is far from certain, BP proceeding cautiously. And Thursday, Shell said the reports of talks were false.

—Tesla stock surged 8% on Monday as the company launched its robo-taxis in a limited debut in Austin, Texas.  The stock popped as the Sunday kick-off went smoothly, with investors and Tesla enthusiasts breathing a sigh of relief – at least for now.

“The @Tesla_AI robotaxi launch begins in Austin (Sunday) afternoon with customers paying a $4.20 flat fee!” CEO Elon Musk posted on X, confirming the start of the test.

Following Musk’s tweet, numerous posters on X claimed they were able to hail and ride Tesla Model Ys emblazoned with “Robotaxi” graphics in Austin, with one claiming he rode on 11 separate trips alone.  [I find that hard to believe.  The launch was supposed to be well-controlled, with Tesla employees in the front passenger seat, accompany early riders on their trips in the self-driving cars.  Early customers were handpicked by Tesla.]

Some bullish analysts, such as Wedbush’s Dan Ives viewed “this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla in its history as a company, as we believe the AI future at Tesla is worth $1 trillion to the valuation alone over the next few years,” added Ives.

But Bloomberg reported that the self-driving taxis appeared to violate traffic laws during the company’s first day offering paid rides, with one customer capturing footage of a left turn gone wrong and others traveling in cars that exceeded posted speed limits.

“In a video taken by Rob Maurer, an investor who used to host a Tesla podcast, the Model Y he’s riding in enters an Austin intersection in a left-turn only lane.  The Tesla hesitates to make the turn, swerves right and proceeds into an unoccupied lane meant for traffic moving in the opposite direction.

“A honking horn can be heard as the Tesla re-enters the correct lane over a double-yellow line, which drivers aren’t supposed to cross.”

Meanwhile, Tesla will report second-quarter deliveries on July 2, and they are projected to be significantly lower than a year ago.

The shares fell Wednesday on more poor news on sales in Europe.  Per the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla EV registrations (a proxy for sales) in Europe fell 27.9% in May to 13,863 in May compared to a year ago.  This marks the fifth straight month of declining Tesla sales in the European region.

But May was better than April, when sales dropped a whopping 49% vs. a year ago.

—Fred Smith, the FedEx Corp. founder who revolutionized the express delivery industry, has died, the company said. He was 80.

FedEx started operating in 1973, delivering small parcels and documents more quickly than the postal service.  Over the next half-century, Smith, a Marine Corps veteran, oversaw the growth of a company that became something of an economic bellwether because so many other companies rely on it.

Memphis-Tennessee-based FedEx became a global transportation and logistics company that averages 17 million shipments per business day.  Smith stepped down as CEO in 2022 but remained executive chairman.

Smith, a 1966 graduate of Yale University, used a business theory he came up with in college to create a delivery system based on coordinated air cargo flights centered on a main hub, a “hub and spokes” system, as it became known.

The company played a major role in the shift by American business and industry to a greater use of time-sensitive deliveries and less dependence on large inventories and warehouses.

Smith once told the Associated Press that he came up with the name Federal Express because he wanted the company to sound big and important when in fact it was a start-up operation with a future far from assured.

In the beginning, Federal Express had 14 small aircraft operating out of the Memphis International Airport flying packages to 25 U.S. cities.

Smith’s father, also named Frederick, built a small fortune in Memphis with a regional bus line and other business ventures.  Following college, Smith joined the U.S. Marines and was commissioned a second lieutenant.  He left the military as a captain in 1969 after two tours in Vietnam where he was decorated for bravery and wounds received in combat.

Smith once told the AP in an interview that everything he did running FedEx came from his experience in the Marines, not what he learned at Yale.

It’s amazing to think how quickly FedEx made a mark on American business.  I got my first job on Wall Street in 1982 and was employed by what was known as the Tax Shelter Department in those days.  I worked on private placements, where we were constantly shipping documents out by FedEx.  The biggest producers in the firm were bugging me throughout the day to make sure their memorandum was sent out that through FedEx and I would be there late many an evening making out FedEx labels.  It was just amazing how this still-fledgling company back then could guarantee delivery in 24 hours.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“America is losing some of the great entrepreneurs of the 20th century, and among the greatest was the FedEx founder Fred Smith, who died this weekend at age 80.

“Frederick W. Smith was born in Mississippi in 1944 and served in the Marines in the fraught 1960s, including two tours in Vietnam….

“Smith founded FedEx in 1973 with a handful of aircraft. By 2022 it had 560,000 employees in 220 countries.  The company revolutionized package and letter delivery.  It promised overnight delivery of letters and goods, and its ubiquitous envelopes marked new competition for the Pony Express that was the U.S. Postal Service. FedEx was an exemplar of American 20th-centry innovation that improved the lives and businesses of tens of millions.

“Fred Smith was also a rare CEO who wasn’t afraid to speak up on public-policy issues, especially as an advocate for free-market capitalism.  His company benefited greatly from the government’s deregulation of transportation in the 1970s.

“As he said in one our Weekend Interview in 2022, ‘People talk about capitalism and socialism and communism.  There’s only two kinds of economic systems: the market-driven and the government-directed.  That’s it!  The more you move toward a state-directed economy, the less efficient and more corrupt it becomes.”

In recent years Smith advocated free trade and its benefits even as the political class turned against it. His voice was especially valuable in reminding Americans that the root of the country’s prosperity has been its openness to trade and global competition.

“ ‘Fred Smith was one of the finest Americans of our generation,’ said former President George W. Bush about his Yale fraternity brother.  ‘He was a citizen, not a spectator.’  Few Americans have contributed as much to the well-being of their country.”

FedEx then reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth quarter earnings after the close on Tuesday, but changed its guidance practice, providing only a one-quarter look ahead.  There is still too much economic and geopolitical uncertainty for the company to talk about the entire year.  Investors didn’t want to hear this and the shares fell 5%.

The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $6.07 from sales of $22.2 billion, up 1%.  The Street was at $5.87 from sales of $21.8 billion.

But no full-year EPS guidance like it did last year.  For the coming quarter, management expects earnings per share of about $3.70, with consensus at $4.05.

For the full fiscal year 2026, Wall Street is looking for sales of $89.5 billion, up from $87.7 billion in fiscal year 2025.

Overall, average daily volume increased 5%, to 16.8 million packages during the quarter, which ended May 31.

–Not a good time to be traveling by Eurostar, the high-speed train service that connects Britain with continental Europe, which faced days of severe delays after cables were stolen near Lille, France, and two people were killed when they were hit by trains, the company said.

The problems come during a time of heightened fears about sabotage in Europe, and they follow several other major disruptions in European rail services because of cable theft or vandalism.

About 600 meters, or nearly 2,000 feet, of copper wiring was stolen from Eurostar, a spokesman for France’s national railway company said this week.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

6/26…108 percent of 2024 levels
6/25…98
6/24…85
6/23…99
6/22…115…3,024,000 total, 2nd-highest ever…
6/21…86
6/20…99
6/19…111

—AAA projects a record 72.2 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more during the nine-day Independence Day holiday period – from June 28 to July 6 – with new highs expected for both drivers and air travelers as summer travel reaches peak season.

The auto club forecasts nearly 62 million people will drive over the Fourth of July weekend, representing an increase of 1.3 million from last year. Air travel is expected to rise more than 1% over last year’s record numbers.

It helps this year that the Fourth of July is on a Friday, so a natural 3-day weekend, for starters.

—Micron Technologies reported record quarterly revenue as data center sales more than doubled year-over-year on AI-driven demand.

The memory chip maker reported record revenue of $9.3 billion, up 37% year-over-year and well above consensus.  Adjusted net income of $21.8 billion, or $1.91 per share, rose from $702 million, or 62 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

“We are on track to deliver record revenue with solid profitability and free cash flow in fiscal 2025, while we make disciplined investments to build on our technology leadership and manufacturing excellence to satisfy growing AI-driven memory demand,” said CEO Sanjay Mehrotra in a release

In the current quarter, Micro expects revenue of $10.4 billion to $11 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.35 to $2.65.  The Street is at $9.99bn and adjusted earnings per share of $2.04.

The shares rose in response.

–Shares in Novo Nordisk fell 5% as it unveiled its latest data for a weight-loss drug candidate, but shares of the Wegovy and Ozempic maker tumbled as the results missed investors’ expectations and reignited concerns about Novo’s rivalry with Eli Lilly.

Appearing at the American Diabetes Association’s annual Scientific Sessions on Sunday, Novo presented trial results for its experimental treatment CagriSema.  Patients with chronic obesity who adhered to treatment saw a mean weight loss of 22.7% at 68 weeks, compared with 2.3% in a placebo group, Novo said.

But investors appear to be focused on the drug “missing the original 25% weight-loss bar” set by Novo executives.

Also on Monday, Novo announced an end to its partnership with Hims & Hers Health, citing concerns over “illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing.”  The companies teamed up in April to transition patients from “knock-off compounded versions” of Novo’s blockbuster weight-loss treatment, the drugmaker said.

A statement from Hims CEO Andrew Dudum asserted that Novo had “pressured us to control clinical standards and steer patients to Wegovy regardless of whether it was clinically best for patients.”

Hims shares plunged 30%, even as the company has said for nearly a year that it planned to continue selling personalized doses of compounded semaglutide (a knockoff version of Wegovy) even after the FDA ordered compounders to stop making the knockoff drugs in bulk.

Compounding pharmacies generally are allowed to make a knockoff version of a branded drug for a specific patient who can’t take the drug in the commercially available form.

—Nike’s sales in the fiscal fourth quarter ended May 31 fell 12% year over year to $11.1 billion.  Analysts were expecting $10.7 billion. Earnings of 14 cents were ahead of consensus of 13 cents.  In the year-ago quarter, earnings were $1.01 per share.

The earnings contraction reflects how Nike has heavily discounted its products to clean out inventories and start fresh with new styles – one of CEO Elliott Hill’s many initiatives to turn the business around after several years of lackluster sales. Nike is also spending more on marketing and investing in sports-focused innovation initiatives, both of which weighed on margins through the quarter.

“While our financial results are in-line with our expectations, they are now where we want them to be,” Hill said in the release.  “Moving forward, we expect our business to improve as a result of the progress we’re making through our Win Now actions.”

Nike said it expects their efforts to bear fruit in the fourth quarter.

The company currently imports 16% of its footwear from China, which it plans to reduce to the high-single digit range by the end of fiscal 2026.

Tariffs aside, there are nascent signs that things are improving, although Hill on Thursday warned that a “full recovery will take time.”

Hill added that demand for Nike’s performance products, such as running shoes, was improving, and that wholesalers were putting in more orders ahead of the holidays.

The shares surged 9%, but they had been badly beaten down over the past year.

—General Mills shares fell 4% after the company reported it expected organic sales to remain stagnant as inflation-weary consumers continue to prioritize value and limit discretionary spending.

The maker of Cinnamon Toast Crunch cereal and Bisquick pancake mix said Wednesday that its top priority in fiscal 2026 is to return to volume-driven organic sales growth.  “To do that, we’ll invest further in consumer value, product news, innovation and brand building,” CEO Jeff Harmening said.

The company plans to launch new products across all its major U.S. categories, emphasizing new package sizes designed to offer consumers more value.  And GIS seeks to revive its struggling snack business, emphasizing bold and spicy flavors!

The Minneapolis company guided for full-year organic net sales, which account for revenues generated from existing operations, in a range of down 1% to up 1%.  Adjusted earnings per share are projected to fall between 10% and 15% from fiscal 2025.

For its three months ended May 25, General Mills posted a profit of $294 million, or 53 cents a share, compared with a profit of $557.5 million, or 98 cents a share.  Adjusted EPS came in at 74 cents, topping the 71 cents the Street expected.  Sales fell 3.3% to $4.56 billion, just below the $4.59 billion that Wall Street modeled.

–Carnival Corp. on Tuesday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $565 million.  The Miami-based company said it had adjusted earnings of 35 cents per share, beating the Street’s estimate of 24 cents.

The cruise operator posted revenue of $6.33 billion in the period, also beating Street forecasts of $6.21 billion.

But the shares rose 7% as Carnival raised its full-year adjusted net income outlook to $2.69 billion, or $1.97 a share, from $2.49bn, or $1.83.

CEO Josh Weinstein noted strong on-board spending and close-in demand (last-minute bookings), adding that the booking curve is the furthest out on record.

Weinstein said travelers are looking to Carnival as their preferred vacation choice.  “Even with the price increases we have achieved over the last few years, our tremendous value compared to land-based alternatives has supported our ability to continue demonstrating remarkable resilience and heightened volatility,” he said.

–Remember that car carrier that was on fire in the Pacific weeks ago?  The 600-foot-long ship had been adrift since June 3, when a fire broke out and forced the crew to abandon the vessel.

Well, it sank about 400 miles off the Alaska coast.

The Morning Midas was carrying 3,000 cars, including around 800 electric vehicles, Zodiac Maritime said.  Most of the vehicles, including the EVs, were manufactured in China and bound for Mexico, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The ship’s sinking leaves investigators with few clues to what caused the blaze.

Insurer Allianz in a report last month warned of the dangers of shipping vehicles containing lithium-ion batteries, citing several fires and near misses in the maritime and logistics industries that were linked to batteries.

—Pixar’s original space adventure “Elio” struggled its first weekend in theaters far more than even the studio anticipated. The film, which cost at least $250 million to make and market, collected an estimated $21 million from Thursday evening through Sunday in the U.S. and Canada, according to Comscore.

It was Pixar’s worst opening-weekend result ever.  The studio and its corporate owner, Disney, had hoped that “Elio” would, in the worst-case scenario, take in $30 million.  Overseas, the picture took in an additional $14 million.

Reviews for “Elio” were mostly positive.

Last year, Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” was the No. 1 movie in the global box office. It sold $1.7 billion in tickets.

Universal’s live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” remake repeated as the No. 1 movie in North America over the weekend, with $37 million in ticket sales.

This weekend it’s about the debut of “F1: The Movie,” with Brad Pitt, a blockbuster $250 million production backed by Apple and distributed by Warner Bros.  The movie was tracking well for a strong performance, according to Hollywood insiders.

Foreign Affairs, Part II….

Russia/Ukraine: Russian drones and missiles killed at least 14 civilians and injured several dozen others in Ukraine in overnight attacks Sunday night into Monday, local officials said, with nine deaths reported in Kyiv, where an apartment building partially collapsed.

The attacks came as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky began a visit to the United Kingdom, where he met privately with King Charles III.

Russia fired 352 drones and decoys overnight, as well as 11 ballistic missiles and five cruise missiles, Ukraine’s air force said.

A Russian ballistic missile strike destroyed a high school later in the day in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, killing two staff, authorities said.  No children were on the premises due to the summer vacation, said Zelensky, who described the strike as “absolutely insane.”

—At least 17 people were killed in Russian air strikes on southeastern Ukraine on Tuesday, damaging schools, hospitals and a passenger train, according to Ukrainian officials.

The strikes, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, wounded more than 100 others, Zelensky said.  Three more people, including a toddler, were reported killed in separate strikes on the northeastern city of Sumy.

It was a rare daytime attack.

“This is not a fight where it’s hard to choose a side,” Zelensky posted as he was attending the NATO summit.  “Standing with Ukraine means defending life.  I am grateful to everyone who is helping.”

–Briefing reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit on Tuesday, a NATO official said the alliance’s forecast is that Russia’s invasion forces will continue to make slow gains despite taking high casualties, and will lack the reserves to press any breakthrough, but that’s it’s going to be a “stressful and difficult summer.”

Russia continues to make “steady advances” in Sumy, and appears to be creating a buffer zone around Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, the official said.  Russian forces are also intensifying operations in Zaporizhzhia in southeast Ukraine, the official added.

But…the head of Ukraine’s army, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his troops have stopped Russian advances in the border region of Sumy.

During a visit to the front on Thursday, Syrskyi said the line of combat had been “stabilized” and that the Russian summer offensive in the area had been “choked off.”

But Syrskyi added that he had personally gone to check on fortification in the region and that more were urgently needed.

—Russia’s ability to produce weapons remains strong.  Production includes about 130 new and refurbished tanks per month, and roughly 3 million artillery shells per year.  (The U.S. Army aims to hit 1 million shells per year in 2026).

But while the military sector is running full tilt, Russian officials have warned that the country’s economy could be on the brink of recession.

NATO Summit: Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said:

“My message to my European colleagues is ‘stop worrying so much.’  Start to make sure that you get investment plans down, that you get [the] industrial base up and running, that the support for Ukraine remains at a high level.  This is what you should work on, and stop running around being worried about the U.S. They are there. They are with us.”

But, Rutte continued, that support requires NATO members to ‘equalize’ their defense spending with that of the United States.

“There is total commitment by the U.S. president and the U.S. senior leadership to NATO.  However, it comes with an expectation…that we will finally deal with this huge pebble issue, this huge irritant, which is that we are not spending enough,” Rutte said.  “I think it’s fair that we take a bigger share of this burden as Europeans and Canadians from the United States.”

Ahead of the summit, NATO members agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP.  Under the agreement, 3.5% would be spent on “core-defense,” while 1.5% would be spent on security-related initiatives.  But Spain said it will opt out of the goal.

Rutte’s statements were affirmed by U.S. NATO ambassador Matthew Whitaker, who said at the summit that the U.S. will be a “reliable ally” but cautioned that Europe now holds responsibility for its own defense – an effort that’s been “almost 77 years in the making.”

Whitaker said there will be a “recommitment” to Article 5 of the bloc’s treaty, which calls for collective defense, and to Article 3, which means that each country has to invest in individual defense.

Trump aboard Air Force One on Tuesday told reporters that whether he is committed to Article 5 “depends on your definition.”  The comment rattled NATO members.

“There’s numerous definitions of Article 5.  You know that, right?” Trump said.  “But I’m committed to being their friends.”

But then Wednesday, at the conclusion of the summit, the president recommitted to protecting the defense pact, praising the alliance’s new agreement to increase spending.

“As far as Article 5 – look, when I came here, I came here because it was something I’m supposed to be doing, but I left here a little differently…I left here saying that these people really love their countries.  It’s not a rip-off, and we’re here to help them protect their country,” Trump said.

Trump met with President Zelensky, which Trump said was a “very nice” meeting.  “I took from the meeting that he’d like to see it end. I think it’ a great time to end it.  I’m going to speak to Vladimir Putin and see if we can get it ended…But he’s fighting a brave battle.  It’s a tough battle,” he said.

Trump appeared to change his tune at the summit, slightly, putting the onus on Putin to end the war.  But the president declined to say whether the United States would send more money to Ukraine after the Biden aid runs out: “As far as money goes, we’ll see what happens.  There’s a lot of spirit.  Look.  Vladimir Putin really has to end that war.  People are dying at levels that people haven’t seen before for a long time.”

—Ahead of the NATO summit, the Chicago Council released the results of its latest public-opinion poll on the eve of this year’s NATO summit.

A solid majority of Americans think U.S. alliances are beneficial to the United States and its allies (61%, up from 51% in 2024) or mostly benefit the United States (11%).

Three in four (74%) favor maintaining or increasing the U.S. commitment to NATO.  While majorities across political affiliations express support, the difference between Democrats (91%) and Republicans (59%) on the question has reached an all-time high in Council polling dating back to 1974.

Nearly six in 10 overall say NATO makes the United States safer (57%) compared to just 8 percent who say less safe (33% say it makes no difference).

Random Musings

—Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: New numbers…40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 57% disapprove.  36% of independents approve (June 3-19).  The prior split was 43-53, 33.

Rasmussen: 51% approve, 48% disapprove (June 27).

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday had Trump with a 41% approval rating, 54% disapproving, compared to a June 11 survey when 38% approved and 54% disapproved.

Republicans by an 87-9 margin approve of the president’s overall performance, while Democrats (92-6) and independents (64-31) disapprove.

–The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday limited the scope of orders halting President Trump’s attempts to curtail birthright citizenship, in a decision that narrowed the ability of judges to issue nationwide injunctions against White House policies.

The court, in a 6-3 decision by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, faulted lower courts for issuing universal injunctions that blocked Trump’s policy across the U.S.  The court said that because such orders go beyond providing relief to the plaintiffs, they “likely exceed” the authority Congress granted to district judges.

Barrett, however, left open the possibility that Trump’s birthright policy could be blocked nationwide under lawsuits brought by New Jersey and other state governments rather than pregnant women concerned about their future children’s status.

Coming at a preliminary stage of the litigation, the decision didn’t resolve the underlying legality of Trump’s policy.  Attorney General Pam Bondi said the high court will rule on the policy writ large in October.

President Trump on Truth Social:

“GIANT WIN in the United States Supreme Court!  Even the Birthright Citizenship Hoax has been, indirectly, hit hard, it had to do with the babies of slaves (same year!), not the SCAMMING of our Immigration process.”

There was a slew of other Supreme Court rulings issued today that I don’t have time to get into.

—New York City held its mayoral primary Tuesday, and due to ranked choice voting, it was thought a winner may not be known until next Tuesday.  Lefty, socialist upstart Zohran Mamdani had leapfrogged former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in some polls for the Democratic primary.

Voters ranked as many as five candidates in order of their favorability. In the first round of vote-counting, only first choices are tallied. If one candidate receives a clear majority of more than 50 percent, they win the race outright.

In simulated ranked choice voting utilizing an Emerson College, PIX 11/The Hill survey, Mamdani surpassed Cuomo in the eighth round.

So that was how things set up.  And then Mamdani, 33, pulled off a stunning upset, taking 43.5% of the vote to Cuomo’s 36.4%, and Cuomo conceded, because it was clear, as the ranked choice process continued, Mamdani would quickly gain over 50%.

Mamdani campaigned on lowering the city’s costs of living, while Cuomo promised more police and safer subways.

But while Cuomo got big-name endorsements from the likes of former President Bill Clinton, former Mayor Mike Bloomberg and some of the city’s biggest labor organizations, he didn’t turn out the numbers with a centrist campaign and instead, Mamdani appealed to young people.

Current Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent in November and polling poorly, while Cuomo has not ruled out a run himself.  Curtis Sliwa is the GOP nominee.

Editorial / New York Post

“Zohran Mamdani came in a clear first in the Democratic mayoral primary, and so a pretty sure bet to win once all the ranked-choice rigamarole-counting concludes – and thus the favorite to be New York City’s next mayor.

“But not the prohibitive favorite.

“Andrew Cuomo failed, and the humiliation should be enough to prompt him to drop out even though he set up a ballot line that would let him fight on in the general election.

“Credit Mamdani for running an energetic campaign with a forward-looking feel, for charm and grace under fire.

“Pity those who voted for him, believed his false promises and mistake his idealistic social-media feed for real life.

“And blame Cuomo and the spineless Democratic Party machine for not really standing for anything at all, and for relying on ‘we’re your only hope’ blackmail of the city’s beleaguered business classes to gin up enough support to make it over the finish line….

“We remain convinced that a Mayor Mamdani would be a disaster for New York City, and believe a majority of voters will agree…if he faces a credible opponent in November….

“Or maybe the city will be stuck with a mayor whose vision is nothing buy unicorns, rainbows and the fantasies of the privileged progressive elite.

“Mamdani certainly isn’t as inevitable an Election Day victor as the Democratic nominee would normally be, but New York City is definitely staring at that ancient Chinese curse: We live in interesting times.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Mr. Mamdani declared himself on election night to be ‘a model for the Democratic Party,’ and among the party base he may be.  He echoes all of the leftwing social policies that hurt the party in 2024, and on Israel he sounds like Columbia University demonstrators.  It’s hard to believe the most Jewish city in America could elect a mayor who favors a boycott of Israel, but that is today’s Democratic Party.

“The populist left poses obvious problems for national Democrats who want to move the party back toward the middle. But Republicans would be wise not to gloat. If Trumponomics fails to deliver strong growth and gains in real incomes, the leftwing populists will be waiting as the main alternative.”

–I didn’t have time last Friday to relate a key conversation between Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ) during congressional testimony last week on the defense budget and the $25 billion Hegseth and President Trump want to spend on their conceptual missile-defense system “Golden Dome” as part of the reconciliation bill.

Golden Dome is a completely unproven system with incredibly ambitious goals, Sen. Kelly stressed in his exchange with Hegseth.

“First of all, is this system designed to intercept a full salvo attack?” Kelly asked.  Hegseth eventually replied, “Yeah, it’s not meant to be just one nation.”

“So what kind of reliability are you aiming to build into this system?  Are we looking for something like four-9s on intercept success?”  Kelly asked.  Hegseth seemed confused, so Kelly continued, “99.99% reliability.”

Hegseth: “Obviously you seek the highest possible.  You begin with what you have in integrating those C2 networks and sensors. Building up capabilities that are existing with an eye toward future capabilities that can come online as quickly as possible. Not just ground-based but space-based.”

Kelly: “So against future capability too.  So do you believe that we can build a system that can intercept all incoming threats? Do you think we could build that system?  This is a very hard physics problem.”

Hegseth: “You would know as well as anybody, sir, how difficult this problem is and that’s why we put our best people on it.  We think the American people deserve it.”

Kelly: “You’re talking about hundreds of ICBMs, running simultaneously, varying trajectories, MIRVs, so multiple re-entry vehicles.  Thousands of decoys.  Hypersonic glide vehicles, all at once.  And considering what the future threat might be, might even be more complicated than that.  And you’re proposing spending not just $25 billion, but upwards of – I think [the Congressional Budget Office] estimated this at at least half a trillion; other estimates, a trillion dollars.  I am all for having a system that would work.  I am not sure that the physics can get there on this. It’s incredibly complicated.”

Kelly also pointed out Hegseth and Trump cut 74% of the staff at the Pentagon’s weapons-testing office, the Office of the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation.  And that’s the same office that would oversee testing of the Golden Dome.

Kelly’s advice to Hegseth: Finish your homework on Golden Dome: “You got to go back and take a look at this but I also strongly encourage you to put together some – before we spend $25 billion or $175 billion or $546 billion or a trillion dollars – put together a group of people to figure out if the physics will work,” the senator said.  “You could go down a road here and spend hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars with the taxpayer money, get to the end and we have a system that is not functional. That very well could happen.” [Defense One]

—The Trump administration’s choice to oversee government-run news outlets like Voice of America told a congressional committee on Wednesday that “it’s best to just scrap the whole thing and start over.”

Kari Lake, the former Arizona newscaster turned Republican politician, testified that the U.S. Agency for Global Media is “rotten to the core” and that any salvageable parts should be put under the control of the U.S. State Department.

Lake appeared before the House Foreign Affairs Committee days after layoff notices were sent to hundreds of employees at the agency and Voice of America, cutting its staff by 85%.  With politicians speaking over and around each other, the hearing amounted to a debate on what role journalism should have in spreading American influence abroad.

Trump backed Lake up via a Truth Social post on Wednesday.  “Why would a Republican want Democrat ‘mouthpiece’ Voice of America (VOA) to continue?  It’s a TOTAL LEFTWING DISASTER – No Republican should vote for its survival.  KILL IT!”

Trump, and the pathetic Lake, could not be more wrong…and have zero sense of history and the importance of Voice of America.  I’m sickened by its demise.

—An advisory panel recently appointed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted on Thursday to walk back longstanding recommendations for flu vaccines containing an ingredient that the anti-vaccine movement has falsely linked to autism.

The vote signaled a powerful shift in the way federal officials approach vaccines, putting into action Kennedy’s deep skepticism about their safety and delivering the first blows to a scientific process that for decades has provided effective vaccines to Americans.

Kennedy fired all 17 experts on the panel about two weeks ago, and then appointed eight new members, at least half of whom have expressed skepticism about some vaccines.

“As a physician and scientist who has devoted my entire career to vaccines and preventing and treating infections, this meeting has been devastating to watch,” said Dr. Lakshmi Panagiotakopoulos, an expert on vaccines who resigned from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention earlier this month.

Dozens of studies have shown the vaccine ingredient, called thimerosal, to be harmless.  It has not been a component of most childhood shots since 2001.

“The risk from influenza is so much greater than the nonexistent risk as far as we know from thimerosal,” said the lone dissenter, Dr. Cody Meissner, a professor of pediatrics at Dartmouth Deisel School of Medicine who is widely considered to be the most qualified member of the new committee. [New York Times]

—French officials said Sunday that 145 people across the country, including 13 in Paris, reported that they had been stabbed with needles at an annual nationwide music festival on Saturday.  Twelve people were arrested in connection with the stabbings.

“Some victims were taken to the hospital for toxicological tests,” the ministry said.  French officials did not provide any details about the people who were arrested or about what substances the syringes may have contained.

While the actual number is small relative to the millions who attended the festival across the country, there has been an alarming rise in such episodes in recent years.

A British Parliament report, published in 2022 after a sudden increase in spiking incidents, said there had been more than 1,000 cases of needle attacks in the country between September 2021 and the end of December 2022.

—Bill Moyers, a former White House press secretary to President Lyndon B. Johnson who became one of television’s most honored journalists, died Thursday at age 91.

For decades, Moyers produced some of TV’s most cerebral and provocative series working for PBS. From some quarters, he was blasted as a liberal, a label he didn’t necessarily deny.

Moyers won more than 30 Emmys, 11 Peabody awards, and many others and was inducted into the Television Hall of Fame in 1995.

—Former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who successfully ran for Congress in 1996 as a crusader for gun control after a mass shooting on a New York commuter train left her husband dead and her son severely wounded, has died. She was 81.

McCarthy was a Republican when, on Dec. 7, 1993, a gunman opened fire on a train leaving New York City.  By the time passengers tackled the shooter, six people were dead and 19 wounded.

Outraged by the attitude of some Republicans who were against gun control, she ran for Congress as a Democrat and served until 2014, having announced earlier she was undergoing treatment for lung cancer.

I knew her husband, Dennis, well.  He was branch manager of a large office for Thomson McKinnon Securities when I worked there and I had to frequently deal with him.  A great guy.  That day was an immensely tragic and sad one for our region.

—Two tornadoes killed six people in North Dakota and New York last weekend, with winds topping 100 mph that caused brief but widespread damage as they tore through largely rural areas.

Three people died in Enderlin, North Dakota, during a storm that struck late Friday and early Saturday.  Three others, including twin 6-year-old sisters, died Sunday in a storm that struck the hamlet of Clark Mills in central New York, officials there said.

–On beautiful Lake Tahoe, California, Saturday, the skies were as blue as the famous waters, when a storm suddenly moved in, sending tents and canopies onshore flying.  White-capped water and 8-foot swells caused multiple boats to capsize, including a 27-foot vessel filled with tourists.

By Monday, officials confirmed that eight people died in the water.

The poor weather was forecast, but no one expected a squall of such force.  A longtime resident said she and others lamented they hadn’t seen a storm like that in the normally serene Lake Tahoe in decades, if ever.

The storm was gone almost as quickly as it arrived.

–Last Friday, a 29-year-old Colorado man died after being struck by lightning while standing in ankle-deep water in New Smyrna Beach, Florida. Two others were injured in the strike.

—Among the temperature records set this week, on Monday, Philadelphia set a new daily record was set on June 23 at 99 degrees, breaking a record set last year.  It was a record 101 at Newark International Airport.  Alpena, Michigan, saw a record temp of 97 degrees; 96 in Concord, New Hampshire, and 94 degrees in Syracuse, New York.

It hit a record-high of 100 in Paterson, New Jersey, where emergency management officials had to shut down a high school commencement ceremony.  The local press reported that 166 attendees, including graduates and family members, were overcome by the heat, 16 hospitalized.

Tuesday saw more of the same.  Philadelphia hit 100 for the first time in 13 years, Newark hit 103, its hottest June day ever, Boston had its hottest June day ever, 102, and New York’s Central Park (where the official city reading is taken) hit 99, hottest day in Gotham since July 18, 2012.

But at least in the Northeast, the weather then broke Thursday.  The South, though, continues to bake.

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $3282
Oil $65.20…down over $9 on the week…

Bitcoin $106,924 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.20; Diesel: $3.71 [$3.50 – $3.81]

Returns for the week 6/23-6/27

Dow Jones  +3.8%  [43819]
S&P 500  +3.4%  [6173]
S&P MidCap  +2.6%
Russell 2000  +3.0%
Nasdaq  +4.2%  [20273]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-6/27/25

Dow Jones  +3.0%
S&P 500  +5.0%
S&P MidCap  -0.6%
Russell 2000  -2.6%
Nasdaq  +5.0%

Bulls 38.8
Bears 28.6

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore