[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,382
President Trump greeted President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House this afternoon and ahead of a critical meeting on the status of supplying needed Tomahawk missiles and other armaments and air defense systems to Ukraine, Trump took questions, and it was appalling…hand-picked reporters questioning Zelensky disrespectfully, asking the Ukrainian leader to comment on Trump’s greatness, and Trump making inane statements like, “Things are coming along pretty well,” in terms of discussions on ending the war, and Trump continually making the statement, “There’s a lot of bad blood between the two (Putin and Zelensky).”
No (kidding), Sherlock! Putin considers Ukraine to be part of his dreamed about new Russian empire, and Zelensky was freakin’ invaded, killing tens of thousands of his young people in a needless war and killing thousands of innocent civilians, while destroying the country’s infrastructure.
I just shake my head listening to this garbage. President Trump repeated, “I think President Putin wants to get it done,” after his call with Vlad the Impaler, Thursday. “But they (Putin and Zelensky) have to get along better.”
“I’m going to make a 9th deal,” said Trump, invoking the Nobel Peace Prize over and over again.
As I go to post, before 4:30 p.m., Zelensky has left the White House but no Truth Social post as yet.
Much more below on the topic, and no doubt next week as well.
Wall Street and the Economy
The president’s ongoing trade war with China took a new turn last Friday after he announced a 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods starting Nov. 1 or sooner.
Trump’s decision came in response to Beijing tightening its control over certain critical minerals and rare earth elements.
“It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action but they have, and the rest is History,” President Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
The Chinese government had announced last week that foreign entities would need to obtain a license to export products containing more than 0.1 percent of rare earth elements that are sourced in China or manufactured using its extraction process. This was notable as China controls roughly 70 percent of the world’s rare metals and earths. The new rules were to go into effect Dec. 1.
Trump had slammed the move as “absolutely unheard of” in international trade. He also suggested he might not meet with Chinese President Xi during a planned summit in South Korea.
That could have implications for Trump as he tries to finalize a deal on spinning off TikTok as a U.S. company.
So that was the background, as I spelled out late Friday afternoon in my ‘Week in Review.’
China’s actions show that the U.S. is vulnerable to economic pressure, and China has forced the administration to choose between further escalation or a humiliating climbdown.
The message was clear: China has the capacity to hurt the tech firms that have led the stock market to recent records.
The Trump team has declared victory almost every time U.S. and Chinese negotiators have met in 2025, but what did the U.S. win in the process? China has halted its purchases of U.S. soybeans, leaving American farmers without access to one of their most important export markets.
Farmers are furious the U.S. opted to bail out a political ally in Argentina, even though Argentine farms continue to sell their soybeans to China.
On the rare earths, eventually the U.S. will be able to get out from under China’s chokehold on them, but it will take time.
Over the weekend, China then said the U.S. should stop threatening it with higher tariffs and urged more negotiations on outstanding issues to agree on a trade deal.
China’s recent trade countermeasures on U.S.-related issues were necessary, defensive actions, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Sunday. Beijing will take corresponding measures to safeguard its rights if the U.S. persists in its actions, it said.
“Threatening with high tariffs at every turn is not the right way to get along with China,” the ministry said. “China urges the U.S. to correct its wrong practices as soon as possible.”
The Commerce Ministry also said Sunday that China’s export control is not a ban on exports of rare earths, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved.
Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday afternoon:
“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!! President DJT”
Separately, China accused the U.S. of Cold War-era intervention in Latin America after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Argentina’s president was “committed to getting China out.”
Sunday, Vice President JD Vance declared the outcome would “depend on how the Chinese respond.” Hours later, China’s Foreign Ministry made clear Beijing would take its cues from Washington’s next steps, after having already unleashed what it saw as retaliatory actions.
“If the U.S. continues on its wrong course, China will firmly take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular briefing in Beijing.
Monday, each side claimed the ball was in the other’s court.
Treasury Sec. Bessent said that he believes the Trump-Xi meeting “will still be on.” In the meantime, he expected U.S.-China staff-level meetings this week, along with moves by the Trump administration to mobilize U.S. allies to put pressure on Beijing.
For their part, Chinese officials said there could be “exemptions” for their sweeping rare earth curbs in order to facilitate trade.
But then Tuesday, Beijing moved to effectively ban Chinese companies from doing business with U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilding giant. China said the Hanwha Ocean subsidiaries supported the U.S. government and hurt Chinese firms’ interests. The move came as tit-for-tat port fees took effect.
Sec. Bessent told the Financial Times that China was “in the middle of a recession/depression,” adding, “They want to pull everybody else down with them.”
Wednesday, speaking at a press conference, Bessent said, “China’s actions have once again demonstrated the risk of being dependent on them, on rare earths.”
“This is China versus the world,” he said. “If China wants to be an unreliable partner to the world, then the world will have to decouple.”
He added: “We should work together to de-risk and diversify our supply chains, away from China, as quickly as possible.”
But Bessent also said there was the possibility of extending a pause of import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months if China halts its plan for strict new export controls on rare earths: “Is it possible that we could go to a longer roll in return? Perhaps. But all that’s going to be negotiated in the coming weeks,” he said during the press conference.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“A mythology has spread in the MAGA world in recent months that the critics of President Trump’s tariffs were wrong. Few countries retaliated, the economy is great, and the late, great Adam Smith doesn’t know what time it is. Tell that to the investors whipsawed on Friday by the end of the U.S.-China trade truce….
“The President is right that China’s move (on rare earths) is bad news for the world economy. It marks an escalation in China’s retaliatory response to Mr. Trump’s export controls and tariffs. In his initial Friday post on Truth Social, he said he was contemplating ‘massive’ new tariffs and ‘many other countermeasures’ in response to the Chinese controls….
“After markets closed (Friday), Mr. Trump got specific and said effective Nov. 1 he will impose a new 100% tariff on China on top of an overall effective rate of about 40% he has already imposed on Chinese goods….
“Where this stops, nobody knows, which is the problem. The trade war is suddenly hotter than it’s been since Mr. Trump’s infamous Liberation Day announcement in April. Mr. Trump retreated from those border taxes after markets staged a meltdown, and investors have thought the worst was over. Maybe not….
“None of this is good for the U.S. and global economies. While China and the U.S. have been undergoing a slow-motion economic decoupling, they remain interdependent. China in particular needs exports to provide jobs for its people as its domestic economy has slowed. Let’s hope the two sides step back from the trade-war brink, or Adam Smith might soon be back in fashion.”
Tuesday, the tariffs on imported timber, lumber, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, duties that threaten to raise the cost of renovations and deter new home purchases, went into effect.
The import taxes are initially set at 25% for cabinets, vanities and upholstered wooden furniture, with imports of softwood timber and lumber at 10%.
But today, Friday, Trump said high threatened tariffs with China were not viable ahead of an expected face-to-face meeting with Xi.
“It’s not sustainable,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business, when asked whether the levies he has threatened to impose on China could remain in place without significantly affecting the economy. “But that’s what the number is, it’s probably not, you know, it could stand, but they forced me to do that.”
The ‘pause’ that the two sides are currently under, the latest 90-day truce, expires Nov. 10, unless it is extended again.
Trump and Xi are still expected to meet at an APEC summit in South Korea later this month.
“I get along great with him,” Trump said today of Xi. “I think we’re going to be fine with China, but we have to have a fair deal. It’s got to be fair.”
—
Federal Reserve officials are sharply divided about how much more to cut interest rates this year. The difference isn’t only about where they expect rates to end up but about how to get there. Ten Fed officials see two more cuts, two favor one cut, and seven want to hold steady.
Investors are expecting another quarter-point cut in about ten days, after September’s cut. But for every Fed governor and regional president calling for more cuts, there seem to be an equal number urging caution.
That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week highlighted signs of a weakening labor market, prompting investors to nearly fully price in a 25 basis points cut in the benchmark funds rate at the Oct. 28-29 meeting.
There were a lot of Fed officials talking this week ahead of the blackout period prior to the FOMC meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, on Trump’s short list to replace Powell as chairman, said officials can keep lowering interest rates in quarter-percentage-point increments to support a faltering labor market.
“You don’t want to make a mistake, so the way to avoid that is to go cautiously or carefully and do 25, wait and see what happens, and then you can get a better idea of what to do,” Waller said Thursday during an interview on Bloomberg Television.
At another event Thursday, Waller highlighted a conflict between data pointing to solid economic growth and other figures signaling a softer labor market.
For now, he said officials should focus on the labor market, given his view that inflation – absent the effects of Trump’s tariff policies – is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target.
The only data coming out of the government this week due to the shutdown was the Treasury Department’s release of the September budget picture and it was a pleasant surprise, a $198 billion surplus, far higher than the surplus projected (there was a surplus of $80 billion last September), meaning the overall budget deficit for the fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30, was $1.775 trillion vs. last year’s $1.816 trillion, the first reduction since 2022.
Customs duties for September were $29.675 billion, a record, but slowing growth in this category.
The big difference in the September surplus was the $131 billion cut to the Department of Education budget that was mandated in the spending and tax-cut billion passed by Congress in July. For September, the education outlays were $123 billion lower than in September 2024.
Net interest on the debt was $37 billion in the month, but $970 billion for the fiscal year, which compares to the $917 billion spent on defense.
Total receipts for fiscal 2025 were a record $5.235 trillion, up $317 billion, or 6%, from the $4.918 trillion in fiscal 2024.
Fiscal 2025 outlays also were a record at $7.01 trillion, up $275 billion, or 4%, from the $6.725 trillion in the prior fiscal year.
At some point the shutdown will end and then we’ll get a crush of data, but we are supposed to get a CPI report next week, despite the shutdown.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer, 3.8%, is not being updated without new data.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate is 6.27%.
—
Regarding the shutdown, thousands of federal employees were laid off over the weekend, with the administration following through on threats to reduce the federal workforce in an attempt to push Democrats to agree to the GOP’s funding demands.
A court filing from the Department of Justice shows more than 4,100 employees were laid off on Friday from various government departments and agencies.
The White House warned that mass layoffs would happen if Democrats didn’t vote for the House-passed continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open at current spending levels until Nov. 21, but didn’t immediately move on that once funding ran out at the start of October.
Some of the most significant layoffs happened at the Treasury Department, with 1,446 employees receiving reduction in force (RIF) notices Friday. More than 1,000 employees of the Department of Health and Human Services, more than 400 each at the Department of Education and Department of Housing and Urban Development, more than 300 at the Commerce Department and more than 175 each at the Energy Department and Department of Homeland Security were also affected.
A court battle had already begun even before the layoffs started. Various unions have argued that the federal government can only furlough workers during a shutdown and not permanently eliminate their roles. A hearing was set to take place this week on the case.
The Wall Street Journal had reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and other senior GOP lawmakers had quietly advised the White House not to move forward with mass layoffs.
The military was set to miss their first paycheck if the government hadn’t reopened by Wednesday. But President Trump directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to use all “available funds” to pay military service members during the shutdown.
Trump said in a social media post that he was acting because “our Brave Troops will miss the paychecks they are rightfully due on October 15th.” Trump added, “We have identified funds to do this, and Secretary Hegseth will use them to PAY OUR TROOPS.”
Trump did not say where the money was coming from but it likely will be funded by the billions of dollars that were pumped into the Defense Department under Trump’s big tax and spending cut bill that he signed in the summer.
There is no doubt that after two weeks the shutdown was biting. Federal workers are already starting to miss pay and have to rely on savings until the government reopens.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
“(The) strain is deepening for contractors, such as the housekeepers and cement operators, who perform work for the government but aren’t guaranteed back wages; airports that rely on federal staff working without pay to keep travel safe; executives planning without government economic data; entrepreneurs unable to secure small-business loans; and consumers unable to close on mortgages without federal flood insurance.”
“Families around the country are already seeing the impacts, and it’s about to get a whole lot worse,” said Senate Majority Leader Thune at a press conference headed into the Columbus Day weekend.
Wednesday, a federal judge blocked the administration from moving ahead with mass firings of federal employees while the government is shut down.
Europe and Asia
Eurostat released the final inflation figures for September in the euro area, 2.2%, up from 2.0% in August. Ex-food and energy the number was 2.4% vs. 2.3% prior.
Annualized headline inflation….
Germany 2.4%, France 1.1%, Italy 1.8%, Spain 3.0%, Netherlands 3.0%, Ireland 2.7%.
August industrial production in the EA20 was down 1.2% over July, but up 1.1% from a year ago.
France: After I posted last week, President Emmanuel Macron asked Sebastien Lecornu to return as French prime minister only four days after he stood down from the post, sparking last week’s high drama and political turmoil.
Macron late Friday met with all the main parties, except the leaders of the far right and far left.
But once again it is not certain Lecornu can form a government, even as he was met Monday with a deadline to put next year’s budget before parliament.
Lecornu posted on X that he accepted Macron’s entreaty “out of duty the mission entrusted to me by the president, to do everything to provide France with a budget by the end of the year and respond to the everyday problems of our compatriots.”
Lecornu then survived a vote of no-confidence Thursday that could have toppled his fragile new government and plunged France deeper into political chaos.
The National Assembly vote clears the way for the embattled prime minister to pursue the mission of getting a 2026 budget through parliament’s powerful but bitterly divided lower house before the end of the year.
Lecornu’s survival also spares any immediate need for President Macron to again dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections.
Turning to Asia…China reported its exports for September rose 8.3% from a year earlier to $328.6 billion, the biggest monthly total so far in 2025, according to data from the General Administration of Customs on Monday. That was faster than the consensus of 6.6% and far better than August’s 4.4%.
Shipments to the U.S. plunged 27% – the sixth month of double-digit declines – a slump more than offset by strong growth in sales to regions like the European Union. In total, exports to non-U.S. destinations grew 14.8%, the fastest since March 2023.
Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA, said, “The limited impact from U.S. tariffs on overall trade so far has likely emboldened China to take a tougher stance in U.S.-China trade negotiations.”
Imports rose 7.4% vs. 1.3% prior.
China is set to announce third-quarter data for economic activity on Oct. 20, with most analysts predicting a slowdown from the first half of the year. Still, a strong showing in the first two quarters put China on track to reach the official growth target of around 5%.
Separately, September inflation was 0.1% from the month prior, -0.3% year-over-year. September producer prices fell 2.3% Y/Y, though this was better than August’s -2.9% pace.
Japan’s August industrial production came in at -1.5% M/M, -1.6% Y/Y.
Street Bytes
—Wall Street bounced back from last Friday’s swoon after President Trump over the weekend posted on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” But then the market fell much of the rest of the week over the fact the U.S.-China trade tensions are far from settled as well as growing concerns over credit issues at the regional banks; specifically Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance, whose shares plunged Thursday after both disclosed problems with loans.
But the market recovered today when many regional banks reported solid earnings and no credit issues, and we had Trump’s trade comment on China.
On the week the Dow Jones rose 1.6% to 46190, while the S&P 500 was up 1.7% and Nasdaq 2.1%. No records.
Big earnings from Tesla next week.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.79% 2-yr. 3.46% 10-yr. 4.00% 30-yr. 4.60%
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below the key 4.00% level Thursday (hitting 3.95% at one point) on the regional bank credit issues that popped up. However, the 10-year ended the week right at 4.00%. Next week’s action will be interesting, especially with a CPI report.
—Gold kept soaring, rising above $4,300, the stupendous rally driven by safe-haven demand and growing expectations of a dovish U.S. monetary policy, but then profit taking hit both gold and silver (silver having hit an all-time high of $54 during the week before falling to $51 today), while the China trade comment from Trump helped, even if it was a goofy comment. No, we do not get along with China, President Trump!
–It was Big Bank week on the earnings front and JPMorgan Chase’s third quarter earnings were boosted by a Wall Street dealmaking bonanza, as the country’s largest bank raked in higher revenues from its investment banking and trading operations.
JPMorgan posted net income of $14.4 billion, a 12% increase from the third quarter of last year and roughly $1 billion more than what analysts anticipated. Total revenue rose 9% to $46.43 billion, also beating expectations.
Revenue from trading and its markets businesses rose 25%.
Revenue from JPM’s investment banking division climbed 17% from a year ago to $2.6 billion while client trading jumped 25% to $8.94 billion.
On Main Street, JPMorgan’s consumer banking arm also brought in more revenue as consumers continued to spend. Debit- and credit-card spending rose 9%. Jeremy Barnum, JPM’s CFO, said Tuesday that 2025 has been “the best year ever” for new account acquisitions for its Chase Sapphire credit-card franchise, aimed at affluent customers.
But Barnum said the bank’s exposure to Tricolor, an auto lending company that collapsed in September amid allegations of fraud and accounting impropriety, had led to $170 million in charge-offs.
“It’s not our finest moment,” CEO Jamie Dimon said on the analyst call. He added, more broadly, when speaking of not just Tricolor but car-parts supplier First Brands Group, which also imploded: “My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.”
But Dimon also said in a statement with the earnings release, “The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter.”
“However, significant risks persist – including from tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. As always, we hope for the best but prepare the Firm for a wide range of scenarios,” Dimon added.
In a call with reporters after the earnings release, Dimon said that the economic impact of tariffs “has been less than people expected, including us,” though he added that the final outcome of negotiations has yet to be seen.
—Wells Fargo & Co. raised a key profitability metric, giving its first major update about the bank’s next growth target after the removal of regulatory restraints it had operated under for more than seven years.
The lender now aims to achieve return on tangible common equity of 17% to 18% in the medium term, an increase from its prior guidance of 15%, which the bank has reached. ROTCE measures how efficiently a bank can generate earnings available to shareholders, showing the pace of growth and at what cost.
The projection comes as the San Francisco-based bank reported net interest income that slightly missed analysts’ estimates. NII – the difference between what the company earns on lending and pays for deposits – totaled $11.95 billion in the third quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of $12.01 billion. The lender maintained its guidance of 2025 NII remaining steady from last year.
“I’m excited about the continued progress we are making on our strategic priorities which is improving our financial performance,” said CEO Charlie Scharf in a statement. “I am more optimistic than ever about our path forward.”
Investment-banking fees totaled $840 million, up 25% from a year earlier. That came after Wells Fargo scored major wins in some of the largest deals of the year, including co-advising Union Pacific Corp. on its $72 billion acquisition of rail rival Norfolk Southern Corp., a deal announced in July. As of the end of September, Wells Fargo ranked seventh in global deal advisement this year, leaping from 17th in the same period in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
Noninterest income, also driven by credit cards and wealth management, totaled $9.49 billion, up 9.3% from a year earlier and topping consensus.
WFC hasn’t seen major signs of deterioration in consumer and commercial credit quality, CFO Mike Santomassimo said at an earlier investor conference in early September. The bank charged off a total of $954 million in loans in the quarter, less than analysts’ expectations.
—Goldman Sachs reported net income of $4.1 billion, a 37% increase from the third quarter of last year and roughly half a billion more than what the Street expected, $12.25 a share vs. consensus of $11.03. Revenue rose 20% to $15.18 billion, also topping expectations.
Goldman’s revenue from investment banking climbed 42% from a year ago to $2.6 billion, while client trading and financing jumped 11.5% to $7.2 billion.
Wall Street’s engines are gaining steam thanks to a booming stock market and growing appetite in corporate boardrooms and executive suites to pursue mergers or pubic offerings.
“This quarter’s results reflect the strength of our client franchise and focus on executing our strategic priorities in an improved market environment,” Goldman CEO David Solomon said in the bank’s earnings release.
But Solomon, like many bankers, is still cautious about the overall environment, noting the many uncertainties that remain.
“We know that conditions can change quickly, and so we can remain focused on strong risk management,” he added.
—Citigroup reported third-quarter profit increased by 16%, reaching $3.75 billion, or $1.86 per share, surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue rose 9% from a year earlier to $22.09 billion, ahead of consensus as well.
The bank’s dealmaking fees jumped 17% and traders in equities and fixed income generated $5.6 billion – 15% more than a year earlier. Net interest income rose 12%.
Results in the quarter included a sizable goodwill impairment charge, about $726 million, or 38 cents a share, related to its sale of a stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex. Citigroup last month said that it would sell 25% of the Mexican bank as part of a plan to eventually take Banamex public.
—Bank of America shares rose 4% after reporting third-quarter earnings and revenue that bested analysts’ expectations, thanks to healthy consumer activity and a busy summer in its investment banking division.
Profits rose 2.3% to $8.47 billion. That amounted to $1.06 per share, beating estimates of 95 cents.
Net revenue was up 11% to $28.09 billion, compared with forecasts of $27.52 billion.
“We do see in our data that the consumer is spending more and that feels consistent with a growth economy,” finance chief Alastair Borthwick said in a call with reporters on Wednesday. “We’ve seen more in the way of certainty around tax…[and] trade, and that certainty tends to be quite good for our investment banking business.”
Even as the Federal Reserve has moved to cut interest rates, the bank has also been able to expand the profit margin between its low-cost bank consumer deposits and the amount it charges on loans, driving up its profit. It forecast more growth for its net interest income for the rest of the year.
Consumers kept spending, bolstering the bank’s performance. Combined credit- and debit-card spend was $245 billion, up 6%. Credit-card loans outstanding were $102.11 billion, up 1% from a year ago, a sign that consumers are carrying more debt.
But loan losses have stayed low. Net charge-offs of loans were down to $1.4 billion, or 11%, thanks to fewer credit card and commercial real estate losses. Even despite the high-profile bankruptcies of auto lender Tricolor and auto supplier First Brands, the latter of which BAC had lent to, the bank said it wasn’t too worried about broader deterioration.
Bank of America’s investment banking fees were $2 billion, up 43% with big gains in deal work, debt and equity fundraisings. Revenue from trading was up 9%.
–And Morgan Stanley posted a blockbuster third-quarter earnings report and, like with Bank of America, the shares rose over 4% Wednesday in response. MS reported record net revenues of $18.2 billion for the quarter, up 18% from the previous year, driven by robust performance across equities trading, investment banking, and wealth management divisions. Net income surged nearly 44% year over year to $4.6 billion, or $2.80 per diluted share, handily above consensus forecasts of $2.10.
Equities trading revenue jumped 35% to $4.12 billion, a figure that not only exceeded internal estimates but also overtook rival Goldman Sachs. Investment banking revenues surged 44% to $2.11 billion, supported by a wave of completed mergers, initial public offerings, and corporate fundraising, all aided by optimism surrounding economic growth and prospects for interest rate cuts under the Trump administration.
CEO Ted Pick used the word “exceptional” several times on the earnings call with analysts. Pick mentioned top- and bottom-line performance and said: “The capital markets flywheel is taking hold as the administration seeks to execute on its three-pronged strategy to reshape the economy with Fed rate cuts likely to continue into next year.”
Revenue from wealth management rose 13% to a record $8.23 billion, about $500 million ahead of analysts’ expectations, as total client assets soared to $8.9 trillion.
The six largest banks collectively earned nearly $41 billion in the third quarter, 19% more than in 2024.
—BlackRock Inc. pulled in $205 billion of client money in the third quarter as the world’s largest fund manager expanded its footprint in private credit and alternative assets.
Investors added $153 billion on a net basis to stock, bond and other exchange-traded funds – which topped 45 trillion for the first time – reflecting the massive growth of the products this year, the company said Tuesday.
Net flows to long-term investment funds were $171 billion, and total assets under management hit a record of $13.5 trillion as markets surged.
“I believe the scale of the opportunity ahead for BlackRock, our clients and shareholders far exceeds what we’ve ever seen before,” CEO Larry Fink said in a statement. “We’re entering our seasonally strongest fourth quarter with building momentum.”
BLK’s adjusted earnings per share in the quarter rose 1% from a year ago to $11.55, beating expectations, with revenue rising 25% to $6.5 billion.
—OpenAI plans to design its own graphics processing units, or GPUs, which will allow it to integrate what it has learned from developing powerful artificial-intelligence models into the hardware that underpins future systems. As part of the agreement announced Monday, the chips will be co-developed by OpenAI and Broadcom and deployed by the chip company starting in the second half of next year. The two will work together to develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI chips and computing systems over the next four years.
The new agreement will be worth billions of dollars, according to reports, though the companies didn’t disclose financial terms.
Broadcom shares rose nearly 10% in response.
Broadcom specializes in designing custom AI chips that are specifically tailored to certain artificial-intelligence applications. It began working with OpenAI on creating a custom chip 18 months ago, and the companies broadened their partnership to include work on related components, including server racks and networking equipment.
The massive deal brings the total scale of computing capacity OpenAI has agreed to buy from chip giants Broadcom, Nvidia, and AMD to 26 gigawatts, enough to meet the summer electricity needs of New York City more than two times over. The estimated ‘spend’ to accomplish this is more than $1 trillion. Supporters of OpenAI point to its $500 billion valuation and potential to monetize 800 million users of ChatGPT.
OpenAI has $100 billion available in investment from Nvidia, has yet to seriously tap debt markets, and can count on backing from the Trump administration and other governments.
But at some point the math no longer makes sense. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees he would like 250 gigawatts of new computing capacity by 2033, implying a cost of more than $10 trillion, according to the Wall Street Journal. By comparison, total global venture-capital investment in 2024 came to $368 billion, KPMG estimates.
—United Airlines reported a third-quarter earnings beat after the bell on Wednesday, a week after rival Delta saw premium and business travelers boost its results.
Chicago-based United posted operating revenue of $15.2 billion, a slight miss but up 3% compared to a year ago. Adjusted EPS of $2.78 did beat the Street’s $2.66 estimate.
Looking ahead, United said it anticipates Q4 adjusted EPS in the $3.00 to $3.50 range, topping the $2.82 estimated.
The carrier’s push to lure and retain picky passengers and investments in its fleet have provided a buffer against economic turmoil, with “significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter,” CEO Scott Kirby said in a statement.
United’s premium revenue was up 6% compared to last year, while basic economy was up 4%, the carrier said. United had a consolidated load factor – the percentage of seats filled by paying passengers – of 84.4% in the quarter, lower than the 85.3% analysts were expecting. Delta reported a load factor of 86% last week.
—Travel chaos is spreading and last weekend it wasn’t all because of the government shutdown. Thousands of flights were delayed over the weekend and Monday as a coastal storm roared up the East Coast, but this came as U.S. airports have already been navigating a severe shortage of air-traffic controllers, like a shortage of about 3,800.
The controllers have to work but won’t be paid for those days until the government reopens, and it’s adding pressure and stress.
And hundreds of Transportation Security Administration workers, who are required to continue working during the shutdown without pay, have called in sick, resulting in worsening lines at airports.
Airlines for America, a group representing the major airlines, said “It is safe to fly,” but that air-traffic controller staffing shortages are causing flights to be spaced out. The group is urging air travelers to “pack their patience.”
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024…we got some data over the weekend, despite the shutdown, so I’m filling in the gaps….
10/16…122 percent vs. 2024
10/15…105
10/14…88
10/13…104
10/12…131
10/11…84
10/10…117
10/9…141
10/8…115
10/7…79
10.6…95
10/5…138
10/4…78
10/3…102
10/2…124
10/1…110
9/30…79
—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, reinforcing hopes in the longevity of a global boom in AI spending.
TSMC, the go-to chipmaker for Apple and Nvidia, now foresees mid-30% growth in annual sales, up about a few percentage points from previously.
The results underscore how TSMC remains one of the bigger beneficiaries of a spending spree on AI infrastructure that’s expected to cross the $1 trillion mark in coming years. From OpenAI to Oracle Corp., industry leaders are racing to build the data centers that underpin the technology in the post-ChatGPT era. TSMC’s higher projection followed a better-than-anticipated 39% jump in net income to $14.8 billion in the September quarter.
On Thursday, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei reiterated his industry was grappling with geopolitical uncertainty, and acknowledging how U.S. sanctions have begun to close off swathes of China, the world’s largest semiconductor arena. Businesses across the global semiconductor supply chain are bracing for disruptions after Beijing imposed curbs on rare-earth mineral exports – essential to most technology devices.
But Wei argued that AI demand would make up for that lost market. “Conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening,” he told analysts after outlining earnings. “The AI demand actually continues to be very strong, stronger than we thought three months ago.”
—Amazon said it plans to hire 250,000 workers for the holiday season across its fulfillment and transportation networks in the U.S., the same number as the last two years, as the e-commerce behemoth prepares for a surge in orders.
The announcement on Monday, however, comes amid concerns that U.S. shoppers will be cautious about spending in this holiday season as they brace for the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies.
—General Motors said on Tuesday it will incur charges totaling $1.6 billion in the third quarter as it realigns its electric-vehicle capacity and manufacturing as a result of softer demand.
The charges include a $1.2 billion non-cash impairment tied to EV capacity adjustments and $400 million for contract-cancellation fees and commercial settlements.
Again, it’s largely about the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit on EV purchases at the end of September which will slow demand.
–Shares in Novo Nordisk A/S and Eli Lilly & Co. fell after President Trump said Thursday that the price of the blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic could come down to just $150 a month.
The U.S. list price of Ozempic, which Trump called “the fat loss drug,” is roughly $1,000 for a month’s supply. Trump told reporters that the cost of the drug, made by Novo, will soon be “much lower.” Lilly sells similar treatments, including Mounjaro and Zepbound.
—Nestle announced it would cut 16,000 jobs, new CEO Philipp Navratil said on Thursday, as the world’s largest packaged food company seeks to cut costs and win back investor confidence.
The jobs being cut represent 5.8% of Nestle’s around 277,000 employees.
U.S. import tariffs are a headwind for Nestle, despite the bulk of the company’s U.S. sales being manufactured locally, while food producers across the board are grappling with fragile consumer confidence and changing habits as people seek to eat more healthily.
“The world is changing, and Nestle needs to change faster,” Navratil said.
Navratil said the 12,000 white-collar job cuts over the next two years, in addition to a further 4,000 headcount reduction as part of ongoing initiatives in manufacturing and the supply chain, were part of an efficiency push.
—Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched its 11th Starship rocket from Texas on Monday and landed it in the Indian Ocean, the last flight before the company begins test-launching a new version of the giant rocket outfitted with more features for Moon and Mars missions.
Its last mission, in August, ended a streak of testing failures earlier this year. Monday’s flight was similar to the previous one, again deploying a batch of mock Starlink satellites, briefly re-lighting its engines in space and testing new heat shield tiles during its blazing hot return from space before splashing down west of Australia.
–Streaming platform Apple TV won the bid to exclusively broadcast Formula 1 in the United States from 2026, signing a five-year deal with F1’s commercial rightsholder.
Apple has long been a frontrunner in the race against current rightsholder ESPN to take over F1 streaming rights in the U.S., with the tech giant also behind the blockbuster F1 movie that became the highest grossing sports movie of all time.
While no figures were announced, it is believed, through multiple reports, that Apple will fork out north of $140m per year for the U.S. exclusivity deal, a significant increase compared to the reported $90m ESPN was paying per year since 2023.
Foreign Affairs
Israel/Gaza: All 20 living hostages still held by Hamas were officially released Monday morning after more than two years of captivity, a monumental step in the push to bring an end to the war in Gaza. It came as President Trump was preparing to address the Israeli Knesset.
Speaking to parliament, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared he was “committed to this peace.” In his speech, Trump told the lawmakers their country must work toward peace after the war against Hamas and conflicts with Hezbollah and Iran.
“Israel, without help, has won all that they can by force of arms,” Trump said. “Now it is time to translate these victories against terrorists on the battlefield into the ultimate prize of peace and prosperity for the entire Middle East.”
After leaving Israel, Trump traveled to Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, for a peace summit featuring a wide range of European and Arab leaders and foreign ministers, including from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi chaired the summit with Trump.
Over the weekend, the Israeli military withdrew from much of Gaza as part of the first step of implementing the peace plan. Aid, including food, water, medicine and other supplies, has started to flow into Gaza in significant quantities as part of the agreement’s first phase, addressing widespread starvation that has dominated the territory for months.
Israel Monday freed more than 1,900 Palestinian prisoners as part of the ceasefire deal, including 250 people serving life sentences for convictions in attacks on Israelis, in addition to 1,700 seized from Gaza during the war and held without charge. They were returned to the West Bank or Gaza or sent into exile…more than 150 sent to Egypt by Israel.
Trump’s 20-point plan calls for much broader steps to set a path forward for Gaza, including Hamas agreeing to disarm and to have no role in a new government to rule the area. A “board of peace,” chaired by Trump, would temporarily oversee the day-to-day operations of Gaza in transition until the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, has made reforms and can take control.
But Hamas hadn’t fully agreed to disarm and step aside, while Netanyahu has affirmed that he won’t allow for the establishment of a full Palestinian state, leaving uncertainty about the next steps of implementing Trump’s proposal.
Monday afternoon, Hamas handed over the bodies of four deceased captives who had been held by the terror group in Gaza. But there were immediate calls from some Israelis that Hamas wasn’t living up to the agreement, though Hamas had warned that finding the bodies of all the dead hostages would take time.
Nonetheless, it is one delicate issue that could undermine efforts to keep the peace.
Netanyahu didn’t attend the Sharm el-Sheikh summit as Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was in attendance. Trump’s plan envisions an eventual role for Abbas’ Palestinian Authority – something Netanyahu opposes.
The plan calls for an Arab-led international security force in Gaza, along with Palestinian police trained by Egypt and Jordan. It said Israeli forces would leave areas as those forces deploy. About 200 U.S. troops are now in Israel to monitor the ceasefire.
The plan also mentions the possibility of a future Palestinian state, another nonstarter for Netanyahu.
Wednesday, the Red Cross received the remains of two more Hamas hostages, hours after the Israeli military said that one of the bodies previously turned over was not that of a hostage. At this point, the remains of fewer than a dozen of the 28 deceased have been returned, and there were serious questions about the durability of the ceasefire.
President Trump, in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, said that Israeli forces could resume fighting if Hamas refuses to disarm.
“Israel will return to those streets as soon as I say the word, if Israel could go in and knock the crap of them, they’d do that,” he said.
A top U.S. military official in the Mideast, Admiral Brad Cooper of the U.S. Central Command, urged Hamas “to stop shooting Palestinian civilians,” after reports that the group’s fighters clashed with armed parties and killed alleged gangsters in what it described as an effort to restore law and order.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The last of the living hostages, all 20 of them, returned home to Israel on Monday after 737 days in Hamas captivity… The moment was one of great euphoria, but it should be tinged with the knowledge that pressure on Hamas can’t let up.
“ ‘You’ve won,’ President Trump told Israel’s parliament in Jerusalem. He praised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as ‘one of the greatest wartime presidents’ and spoke of the opportunity to ‘translate these victories against terrorists on the battlefield into the ultimate prize of peace and prosperity for the entire Middle East.’
“Mr. Trump veered off-script and into Israel’s domestic politics by suggesting a legal pardon for Mr. Netanyahu, but his focus was on their joint achievements in Gaza, Iran and beyond. ‘The forces that…plagued the region for decades now stand weakened, isolated and totally defeated,’ the President said. ‘I love Israel,’ he concluded. ‘I’m with you all the way.’….
“The Trump strategy was to ignore the media pressure and back Mr. Netanyahu as Israel smashed regional U.S. adversaries. This was the opposite of Joe Biden’s strategy that put pressure on Israel to stop fighting too soon. Israel’s soldiers first had to win the war to secure these favorable terms for the hostages’ release – up front and with Israel remaining in half of Gaza to enforce the rest of the deal.
“Hamas also had to see that its political exit routes, via Iranian escalation, support from mediators such as Qatar, and pressure from left-wing Western protests, had been closed.
“From Israel Mr. Trump traveled to Egypt for a summit on Gaza’s future. The question for the assembled leaders, especially the Arab potentates most involved, is whether they will win the peace by fulfilling Mr. Trump’s 20-point deal.
“This is far from guaranteed. Mr. Trump’s line, ‘This is a historic dawn of a new Middle East,’ echoes past hopes that have been crushed. Hamas gave in Monday not to make peace, but because its alternatives were worse. It seeks to exploit the cease-fire to restore its power and return to war. Several Hamas leaders have already said the group won’t disarm, and the terrorists may be reinvigorated by Israel’s release of nearly 2,000 prisoners, a hefty ransom.
“The first test is the dead hostages, all of whose bodies Hamas was supposed to return Monday. It handed over only four. If world leaders attempt to push past this basic initial term, Hamas will know the rest are optional as well. It would also retain some leverage. Given the corpses’ value to the terrorists as bargaining chips, the claim that they need more time to find and retrieve them is hard to credit.
‘Hamas may be stalling as it launches a mini-civil war against potential Palestinian rivals. Since Israeli troops have ceased fire, the terrorists have conducted public executions and killed at least a few dozen members of the local Doghmush clan. Several Hamas fighters have also been killed in Palestinian reprisals.
“All of this points to the need for Gaza’s demilitarization and deradicalization. Palestinians should ‘concentrate on building their people up instead of trying to tear Israel down,’ Mr. Trump said Monday. That means ditching permanent refugee status and other features of the old Gaza that was built by the United Nations to keep alive the dream of destroying Israel.
“We will soon learn if the Arab states are serious about Mr. Trump’s plan. Will they disarm Hamas? Blow up its tunnels? Risk their soldiers’ lives to keep Hamas down? If not, count on them to protest when Israel does it for them. Israel in turn will count on Mr. Trump for the ‘full backing’ he has promised.”
Separately, King Abdullah II of Jordan warned that the Middle East is doomed unless there is a peace process leading to a Palestinian state.
In an interview with the BBC prior to attending the summit at Sharm el-Sheikh, Abdullah said, “If we don’t solve this problem, if we don’t find a future for Israelis and Palestinians and a relationship between the Arab and Muslim worlds and Israel, we’re doomed.”
Abdullah said the region had seen many failed attempts at peace and that the implementation of a two-state solution – the creation of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, alongside Israel – was the only answer.
Thursday, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Friday, Hamas moved to shore up the brittle ceasefire agreement with Israel by reaffirming its commitment to the terms of the deal, including a pledge to hand over the remains of all dead Israeli hostages.
Hamas, however, maintains that some bodies were buried in tunnels that were later destroyed by Israel, and heavy machinery is required to dig through rubble to retrieve them.
In a second statement today, Hamas urged mediators to increase the flow of aid into Gaza, expedite the opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and start the reconstruction process, especially for homes, hospitals and schools.
—
Russia/Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed optimism that with the return of the hostages in Gaza, President Trump will be able to also help end the war with Russia, and we learned Monday that Zelensky would visit Trump at the White House on Friday.
Trump has said in recent days he might send the long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if Russia doesn’t settle the war soon. Tomahawk missiles have a range of 2,500km (1,500 miles), which would put Moscow within reach for Ukraine.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned against the move, saying Trump sending the missiles to Ukraine could “end badly” for everyone. He argued that it is impossible to tell the difference between such a missile with a nuclear warhead and a conventional one.
Last Sunday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian state television, “The topic of Tomahawks is of extreme concern. Now is really a very dramatic moment in terms of the fact that tensions are escalating from all sides.”
Peskov, like Medvedev, mentioned the nuclear angle.
“Just imagine: a long-range missile is launched and is flying and we know that it could be nuclear. What should the Russian Federation think? Just how should Russia react? Military experts overseas should understand this,” Peskov said.
Zelensky said he and Trump will discuss a “series of steps” that he will propose.
“Therefore, the main focus of the visit is air defense and our long-range capabilities aimed at exerting pressure on Russia for the sake of peace,” he said.
Wednesday, at a NATO meeting in Brussels, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the Kremlin of possible “costs.”
“If there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take the steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression,” Hegseth told his European counterpart at a meeting intended to drum up more military supplies for Kyiv.
“If we must take this step, the U.S. War Department stands ready to do our part in ways that only the United States can do.”
Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, said the upcoming meeting between Zelensky and Trump could be a “pivotal moment,” as the U.S. president “now has a window of opportunity and the time to seriously deal with the issue of Ukraine.”
He said Putin would engage in negotiations “when there’s serious pressure, if Ukraine gets such weapons like Tomahawks – and not only Tomahawks – with which we can destroy military objects deep into the territory of Russia.”
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Putin, said deploying Tomahawks would escalate the conflict in Ukraine “to the brink of nuclear war.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal…regarding the potential for deploying Tomahawks in Ukraine:
“Joe Biden never provided Ukraine with the arms it needed when it might have pushed Russia back from its current battle lines. Take the example of providing F-16 fighters. The Biden Administration early in the war appeared panicked about Poland donating even some old MiG jets to Ukraine and then waited more than a year to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16.
“Various podcast hosts and Pentagon isolationists told Mr. Trump that striking Iran’s nuclear sites would lead to World War III and mass American casualties. Now they’re saying the same about providing long-range weapons to Ukraine. Yet the bigger risk of war is from inaction. Mr. Putin is testing NATO’s resolve with drones and jet incursions, and he will continue to escalate if he pays no price. Sometimes Tomahawks are a force for peace.
“Mr. Trump understands this instinctively, as he showed in the Middle East. He also knows what the steps should be in Ukraine applying those principles. Help Europe seize Russia’s frozen assets. Impose secondary sanctions on Chinese oil purchases. Give Ukraine weapons, intelligence, and a strategy for recovering more land – every kilometer gained back is leverage at a negotiating table.
“Such is life for the Commander in Chief that Mr. Trump won’t have long to bask in his Israel achievement. But having restored U.S. deterrence to forge a peace deal in one arena, he now has a chance to do it in Europe. The Nobel committee, and the rest of the free world, will be tuned in.”
But then Thursday, Trump had a phone call with Putin, and the two agreed to meet again in an effort to end the war in Ukraine, this time in Budapest, Hungary, date to be determined.
Writing on Truth Social after….
“I have just concluded my telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, and it was a very productive one. President Putin congratulated me and the United States on the Great Accomplishment of Peace in the Middle East, something that, he said, has been dreamed of for centuries. I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine….At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio… A meeting location is to be determined. President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this ‘Inglorious’ War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end… I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation.”
Oh brother. Give me a freakin’ break.
Thursday night, Russia launched another attack, firing more than 300 drones and 37 missiles across Ukraine, eight regions experiencing blackouts. President Zelensky accused Russia of using cluster munitions and conducting repeated strikes on the same target to hit emergency crews and engineers working to repair the energy grid.
“This fall, the Russians are using every single day to strike our energy infrastructure,” Zelensky said on Telegram.
Ukraine did strike another oil refinery in Russia Thursday.
And then President Zelensky arrived at the White House Friday.
—Emergency power outages have been brought in across almost all of Ukraine after Russia’s intensive campaign of air strikes on energy infrastructure.
Russia argues its attacks on the infrastructure are aimed at Ukraine’s military, but millions of civilians have already been affected by outages in recent weeks. On one night alone last week, Oct.9-10, a combined missile and drone attack caused power cuts in nine regions, from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odessa in the south.
President Zelensky has accused Moscow of aiming to “create chaos and apply psychological pressure on the population through strikes on energy facilities and railways.”
—
Venezuela: President Trump confirmed a report he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela, provoking outrage from leader Nicolas Maduro.
U.S. forces have already conducted at least six strikes on suspected drug-carrying boats in the Caribbean in recent weeks, killing 27 people.
Speaking at the White House Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. “is looking at land” as it considers further strikes on drug cartels in the region.
According to the New York Times, Trump’s authorization would allow the CIA to carry out operations in Venezuela unilaterally or as part of any wider U.S. military activity.
It remains unknown whether the CIA is planning operations in Venezuela, or whether those plans are being kept as contingencies, but the spy agency does have a long history of activities in South America.
U.S. officials told the Times, the administration’s strategy “aims to oust Mr. Maduro from power.”
American B-52 bombers were spotted in the air near Venezuela on Wednesday, according to public flight-tracking sites, the UK Defense Journal reported.
“The flight profile is somewhat consistent with long-range training and deterrence patrols routinely conducted by B-52 from Barksdale Air Force Base across the Caribbean,” the Defense Journal reported. However, “The flight path brought the bombers close to La Orchila and Gran Roque, both Venezuelan islands with military facilities,” which along with their “visibility on open tracking platforms suggested a deliberate signaling exercise.”
Thursday, the military commander overseeing the Pentagon’s escalating attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea decided to step down.
Adm. Alvin Holsey is leaving his job as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees all operations in Central and South America, even as the Pentagon has rapidly built up some 10,000 forces in the region.
It is unclear why he is leaving now, less than a year into his tenure, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. But according to the New York Times, one of the U.S. officials, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Adm. Holsey has raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats.
North Korea: At a massive military parade last weekend attended by foreign leaders, Kim Jong Un rolled out his nuclear-armed military’s most powerful weapons, including a new intercontinental ballistic missile he may be preparing to test in coming weeks.
The parade marked the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party, and highlighted Kim’s growing diplomatic footing and his relentless drive to build an arsenal that could target the continental United States and his rivals in Asia.
North Korean state media said Saturday that the parade featured a new, yet-to-be-tested intercontinental ballistic missile called the Hwasong-20, which it described as the country’s “most powerful nuclear strategic weapon system.”
Chinese Premier Li Qiang, the country’s No. 2 official, and Russia’s ruling-party chief and former president, Dmitry Medvedev, were among the dignitaries to join Kim at the event. Top officials from Vietnam and Laos also attended.
“Our army should continue to grow into an invincible entity that destroys all threats approaching our range of self-defense,” Kim said in a speech.
China: Ezra Jin, the leader of one of China’s largest underground Christian churches, with branches in 40 cities across the country, was detained in recent days by Chinese authorities, alongside more than 20 others associated with Jin’s Zion Church, who are either in custody or missing, Beijing’s latest broadside against Christianity in China.
Jin’s wife and three children relocated to the safety of the U.S. a while ago, but Jin stayed behind in China to lead his church, aware of the risks he faced.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: 40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 56% disapprove. 32% of independents approve (Sept. 2-16).
Rasmussen: 49% approve, 50% disapprove (Oct. 17)
–In the key New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democrat Mikie Sherill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the latest Quinnipiac University Poll by six points, 50% to 44%. This is down from an 8-point margin in the last Quinnipiac survey conducted in September.
Democrats back Sherill 92-4 percent, while Republicans back by Ciattarelli 94-5 percent. Among independents, 48% back Ciattarelli, 42% back Sherrill, according to Quinnipiac.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Friday morning has Sherrill up 7 points, 52% to 45%.
This race has been downright ugly. Both candidates name-calling, both camps running ads that are taken out of context. Just a really crappy campaign by both.
–I watched the first hour of a two-hour New York City mayoral debate Thursday night and the New York Post’s John Podhoretz summed it up well:
“While Zohran Mamdani has vile views and worse politics, his campaign has been a logistical triumph and his Democratic debate performance in May was startlingly impressive. There was every reason to expect his debate showdown last night with Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa would be another feather in his cap.
“It wasn’t. Mamdani flopped. His answers were defensive. He seemed angry at being questioned at all. It seemed offensive to him that he would have to offer an explanation for having called for defunding the police and refusing to accept the existence of Israel as a Jewish state.
“He claimed he never said things he said or that he shouldn’t be accountable for words he wrote only five years ago. He did not seem like a young and happy warrior, more like a petulant graduate student.
“But if Mamdani did badly, Andrew Cuomo did worse. And an enjoyable Curtis Sliwa buried Cuomo even deeper.
“For a man who’s run in multiple elections over the past 25 years, Cuomo was shockingly inarticulate and unable to sustain a single argument or a single answer. There were moments when Cuomo sounded more like Luca Brasi stumbling through his thanks to Don Corleone for that wedding invitation than he did his own famously silver-tongued father….
“The only real life in the debate came from Curtis Sliwa, the populist New York crime-fighting hero of the 1980s, who was so spirited and lively it was like he was bringing CBGBs back. He was also easily the most substantive of the three candidates….”
As I watched, I thought, ‘Drat…Mamdani is going to win and Sliwa will get a solid 15%, thus denying Cuomo any chance at the upset, and Gotham will be so screwed.’
–Very much related to the above, former New York City police commissioner Raymond Kelly (under Mayors Michael Bloomberg and David Dinkins) warned of an “exodus” of New York Police Department cops if mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani takes city hall.
Speaking on “The Cats Roundtable” radio program on WABC 770 AM Sunday, Kelly said Mamdani seems to be tacking towards the center publicly, but cops aren’t going to buy the act from the far-left Assemblyman.
“He is a problem. He is antisemitic. He is someone who has a lot of crazy ideas,” Kelly told Cats.
“They started leaving in big numbers at the beginning of Mayor Adams term as mayor and its continued. And of course, with a socialist mayor, I think there is a real challenge to keep the numbers of the police department where they should be,” Kelly said.
Kelly added that Mamdani would be wise to keep Jessica Tisch as police commissioner, who everyone thinks is doing a terrific job thus far.
—Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Allies of President Trump are grousing that he didn’t win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. But it’s hard to fault the admirable choice, announced Friday, of Venezuelan freedom fighter Maria Corina Machado.
“The Nobel committee called her ‘one of the most extraordinary examples of civilian courage in Latin America in recent time,’ and we’d drop the geographic caveat. In the personal risks and sacrifices she has made for democracy, she sets an example for the world.
“Educated as an industrial engineer, Ms. Machado has been a leader of the democracy movement in Venezuela for more than 20 years. In 2002 she watched Hugo Chavez destroy institutions and consolidate power. She resisted by co-founding the nonprofit Sumate – ‘Join’ in English – to engage Venezuelans to become politically active.
“She was elected to the National Assembly in 2010. In 2013 she was beaten during a legislative session by pro-government members who broke her nose. In March 2014 during a visit to the border with Colombia, she was kidnapped for several hours by armed hoodlums. The following week the regime expelled her from the Assembly.
“In 2024, when Chavez’s successor Nicolas Maduro agreed to hold elections he thought he could rig, he barred her from running against him. But Ms. Machado led the opposition strategy to get out the vote and capture images of voter-tally-sheets at each precinct at the end of the day.
“Uploaded to the internet, the results proved to the world that opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez had won with some 70% of the vote. Mr. Maduro’s goons issued a warrant for her arrest, and she has since been in hiding.
“ ‘This is not my prize alone,’ Ms. Machado said Friday. ‘It belongs to the thousands of Venezuelans who have fought for democracy, for peace, and for the dignity of our people. This award recognizes the suffering of those who have been unjustly imprisoned, exiled, and silenced. It is a call to the world to continue standing with us, as we strive for a free and democratic Venezuela.’
“The peace prize will bring new world attention to the cause of Venezuelan freedom, which Mr. Trump also supports. We only wish the Nobel committee had made her a co-winner with Jimmy Lai, the publisher who’s been a political prisoner in Hong Kong for his fight for democracy. If Mr. Trump helps Ms. Machado and the Venezuelan people restore democracy, and helps free Mr. Lai from prison, the President will deserve the Nobel next year.”
—Former Trump national security adviser John Bolton was indicted Thursday on 18 counts related to the alleged mishandling of classified documents in Maryland, making him the third key figure Trump has openly criticized whom his administration has brought criminal charges against, following former FBI Director James Comey and New York’s Attorney General Letitia James.
The indictment comes less than two months after the FBI conducted a raid on his home. Trump responded to the raid at the time by saying he didn’t have advance notice of it, but he called the former adviser a “lowlife” and “very unpatriotic.”
Thursday, following the indictment, Trump said: “You’re telling me for the first time, but I think he’s a bad person. I think he’s a bad guy.”
Bolton’s case is different from that of Comey and James, both of whom were charged after career prosecutors raised doubts that they had enough evidence.
Bolton faces eight counts of transmitting and 10 counts of retaining national defense information. Tom Sullivan, a career prosecutor, reportedly presented the case to the grand jury and signed it. Prosecutors allege that the former official “abused his position” as national security adviser from April 2018 until at least August of this year to share more than a thousand pages of information about his daily activities in the role with two unauthorized individuals, the two “related” to him [Ed. his wife and daughter], according to the indictment.
The information Bolton took home was for his use in writing a book, “The Room Where It Happened.”
Bolton, in a statement, said in part: “Dissent and disagreement are foundational to America’s constitutional system, and vitally important to our freedom. I look forward to the fight to defend my lawful conduct and to expose [Trump’s] abuse of power.”
The Wall Street Journal editorial board opined:
“Mr. Bolton will get his day in court, and we look forward to his defense. In our experience he is a patriot who would do nothing to compromise national security. He never leaked classified information to us. If Mr. Bolton had praised Mr. Trump in his book, it’s safe to say he wouldn’t have been indicted.”
Bolton pleaded not guilty in court today.
—Trump on Truth Social, Sunday morning:
“The Ukraine Impeachment (of me!) Scam was a far bigger Illegal Hoax than Watergate. I sincerely hope the necessary authorities, including CONGRESS, are looking into this! Adam ‘Schiffty’ Schiff was sooo dishonest and corrupt. So many laws, and protocols, were violated, and just plain broken!!! President DJT”
Yup, Schiff is the next one to be indicted.
—From the Washington Post:
“Tech billionaire Peter Thiel recently warned that Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and critics of technology or artificial intelligence are ‘legionnaires of the Antichrist’ in private lectures on Christianity that connected government oversight of Silicon Valley to an apocalyptic future, according to recordings reviewed by The Washington Post.
“In the four, roughly two-hour lectures, which began last month and culminated Monday at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, Thiel laid out his religious views to a sold-out audience told to keep the contents ‘off-the-record,’ according to an event listing. He argued that those who propose limits on technology development not only hinder business but also threaten to usher in the destruction of the United States and an era of global totalitarian rule, according to the recordings.
“ ‘In the 17th, 18th century, the Antichrist would have been a Dr. Strangelove, a scientist who did all this sort of evil crazy science,’ Thiel said in his Sept. 15 opening talk, according to the records. ‘In the 21st century, the Antichrist is a Luddite who wants to stop all science. It’s someone like Greta or Eliezer,’ he said, referring to Thunberg and Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent critic of the tech industry’s approach to AI….
“The recordings offer new detail about how the billionaire seems to place those who would critique or regulate tech developers into a religious good-vs.-evil worldview, where the future of all creation depends on giving innovators free rein….
“As one of the industry’s most influential leaders, his effort to cast resisting oversight of technology development as a religious battle could intensify the industry’s crusade….
“The billionaire spoke for nearly eight hours across the four private lectures about his theories of the role of technology in society and the world, according to the recordings….
“He acknowledged that technology could have negative effects on people and society but argued that constraining its development would be more harmful.
“ ‘Maybe these things are good or bad – stopping them seems far, far worse,’ he said, according to the recordings. ‘If the internet or the AI deranges some people but we have to shut it down altogether, that feels like out of the frying pan into the fire – a cure that’s far worse than the disease.’….
“Thiel, whose net worth is around $27 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, also used his private talks to criticize financial regulations. He said such rules were a sign that a singular world government has begun to emerge that could be taken over by an Antichrist figure who could then use it to exert control over people.”
[What I just posted is but a very small snippet of an extensive piece, as reported by Nitasha Tiku, Elizabeth Dwoskin, and Gerrit De Vynck of the Post.]
–Authorities said all 16 people at the site of a devastating blast at a Tennessee bomb factory perished. At first the death toll was released as 19, but three people were found to be at home.
A cause could take months to determine what set off the catastrophic explosion.
—Heavy rains in Mexico last week left 70 people dead and another 72 missing across five states, the government said as of Thursday. Hundreds of roads and power transmission lines were damaged.
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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4242
Oil $57.59…lowest in 5 years…
Bitcoin: $106,509 [4:00 PM ET, Friday…down $10,000 on the week…]
Regular Gas: $3.05; Diesel: $3.64 [$3.19 – $3.60 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 10/13-10/17
Dow Jones +1.6% [46190]
S&P 500 +1.7% [6664]
S&P MidCap +2.0%
Russell 2000 +2.4%
Nasdaq +2.1% [22679]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-10/10/25
Dow Jones +8.6%
S&P 500 +13.3%
S&P MidCap +3.3%
Russell 2000 +10.0%
Nasdaq +17.5%
Bulls 53.8
Bears 15.4…unchanged
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
