[Posted 7:15 AM]
Significant Risks
I was watching the “Today Show” Friday morning and an
interview Katie Couric had with the widow of Sgt. Stephen
Bryson, one of those killed in the military plane crash in
Pakistan, when I couldn”t help but think, do the vast majority of
the American people truly understand just how long and difficult
this war on terrorism is going to be?
I”ll never forget those moments after the attacks when some
folks, mostly in “man on the street” interviews, acted like we
were dealing with just a handful of terrorists (a few hundred at
most). I”m beginning to think that a figure I have used, 30,000,
is way too low.
One of the prime reasons for the bounce back in the worldwide
equity markets and, it would appear, the U.S. economy, is the
fact that we have yet to witness a successful follow-up terrorist
incident. But think about how lucky we have been.
Since 9/11, attacks have been foiled in France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia, to name just a few, let
alone all the plots that our own intelligence forces have
uncovered in the U.S. And while most of these missions look to
have been of a more conventional variety, taking out an embassy,
for example, we still have to operate under the assumption that
something far worse could occur.
What it all points out is just how widespread the ”network” is,
whether it is al Qaeda or other groups of a similar ideological
bent, while a look at what”s really going on in Afghanistan
reveals another simple truth – it”s a virtual state of anarchy over
there, despite the best efforts of the coalition. I don”t need to tell
you that the majority of the Afghan “leaders” are rotten to the
core and this warlord mentality won”t soon disappear. Imagine
the frustration of our military leaders when it became clear that 7
Taliban leaders were set free by local militias, when they were
supposed to be turned over to the U.S. And imagine the reaction
if it”s proved that bin Laden and / or Mullah Omar bought their
freedom. It”s sickening.
No, without bringing up the obvious examples of Iran and Iraq,
let alone lesser targets like Somalia and the Philippines that the
administration appears to be interested in before commencing the
big game hunt, this is going to be a long fight with many more
widows like Mrs. Bryson being interviewed before it”s all over.
We all need to pray that through the dark moments we keep our
resolve, and that some of our key allies do as well, especially
with all of the leadership changes that are going to take place
over the coming decades. And when we hold our own elections
and the pundits say, “It”s about the economy, stupid,” I hope
enough of us remember the fallacy in that statement. “It”s about
killing terrorists, before they kill us.”
Wall Street
So much for the euphoria of just one week ago. While the
declines in the Dow Jones (2.7% to 9987) and the Nasdaq (1.8%
to 2022) alone weren”t cause for great concern, the moves
certainly should give investors pause before blindly tossing their
hard-earned dollars at a stock market that many of us believe is
expensive, especially in light of Fed Chairman Greenspan”s
pronouncement on Friday that “significant risks” remain in the
U.S. economy. But while Greenspan also added that there were
“tentative indications” a true recovery may be underway, the
bulk of his comments could lead to only two conclusions. First,
it”s still too early to bet the ranch on a return to happy days of
yore, and, second, the Fed will probably cut interest rates one
more time when it gets together on Jan. 29-30.
Earlier in the week, however, even as the markets were stubbing
their toes, respected strategists like ISI”s Ed Hyman were highly
optimistic on the future for the economy. Hyman, consistently as
good as they come in his field, stated the recession ended in
November, that December will be shown to have been an up
month, and that 2002 will witness a return to steady, 3% growth
with, importantly, a 1% or less increase in consumer prices; in
other words the “perfect recovery,” to use his phrase, which is
also perfect for the Federal Reserve. Not too hot and not too
cold. But Hyman was also quick to recognize that the significant
rally we have seen off the market lows of September clearly
limits upside.
Street Bytes
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 1.61% 2-yr. 2.71% 10-yr. 4.86% 30-yr. 5.36%
Bonds soared at week”s end on the strength of both Greenspan”s
remarks and the producer price index report for December,
which revealed a 0.7% decline. We are a long ways from the
Fed having to worry about raising interest rates to quell
inflationary pressures. And with robust growth apparently not
around the corner either, the market believes the Fed can afford
one more cut in the federal funds rate to 1.50%. The decline in
the 10-year, in particular, is of crucial importance if the housing
sector is to hold up its end of the economy.
–Enron: No surprise here, this is big. And while there is no
reason to believe, today, that Bush administration officials
(particularly Don Evans and Paul O”Neill) acted improperly, you
and I have no clue where the various investigations, including the
criminal one launched this week by the Justice Department, will
lead. What we can be sure of, however, is that we”ll be talking
about Enron at least through the summer and it is bound to find
its way into all manner of Democratic campaign ads (even
though the party and its representatives received Enron largess as
well).
Over the coming weeks, I won”t spend too much time rehashing
details (like the situation with Arthur Andersen and documents
that were destroyed) since you all will be inundated with it. For
now I leave you with the observations of others. George Will
called Enron a “serious market story” (echoing my comments of
last week) as “Wall Street depends on transparency.” While
Treasury Secretary O”Neill noted on “Meet the Press,” “People
who invest need to believe in the information provided to them.
It”s why we have done so much better than the rest of the world.”
It”s why this “unprecedented event” is so important.
–Argentina: Guess what? The situation here is getting worse. I
do have to correct something from my commentary of last week,
though. When I wrote my piece word hadn”t come out that the
government, through the devaluation of the peso, was also
requiring banks to convert $-denominated loans, mortgages and
credit card debt to pesos, so, using my prior example, the worker
with a monthly salary of $500 who saw it devalued to $360,
would be responsible for loans whose value had also been
reduced. But it really doesn”t matter because the people can”t
afford to pay them off anyway, and the banks will now have new
problems paying the $ debts they hold. Yes, a bit confusing but
it all adds up to one thing, the crisis is far from over and, as
Secretary O”Neill said the other day, “We should care a lot about
it.”
–Japan: The IMF is voicing increased concern over the whole
bank loan issue and rumors were rampant in the market this week
that a total collapse is around the corner. Earlier, the government
appeared to let the yen plummet further, as official policy, which
hurts its neighbors whose own goods grow increasingly
expensive. And thus far, Prime Minister Koizumi, who came to
power with so much promise, has been a total bust.
–Warren Buffett on the insurance industry and skyrocketing
premiums for trophy structures post-9/11. “This could slowly
but surely lead to the de-urbanization of America and the closing
of any iconic building.”
–In taking its $1.7 billion restructuring charge for the 4th quarter,
Merrill Lynch announced that $300 million of it was for the
purposes of reducing its technology capacity, i.e., that”s just
another clue for those who still have trouble understanding just
how overbuilt parts of the U.S. and global economy are in the
tech realm.
–Gateway”s debt was cut to junk status over the company”s
ability to maintain or grow revenues. Ever since I told you all of
my own lousy Gateway experience, Fall 2000, it”s been nothing
but downhill for this PC maker. And it”s why I have purchased
two more Dells instead since then.
–General Motors and Ford, collectively, will be laying off about
25,000 employees over the course of the next year or two (the
35,000 figure you are seeing associated with Ford includes
previous job cuts), with Ford having to extend the process even
further due to existing UAW contract restrictions. [I must say,
union leaders have done a good job, from what I know of the
safety nets for workers. Of course this is also one of the reasons
why companies like Ford are struggling.]
I also have to take this opportunity to bring up something I heard
a CNBC reporter say last September from the floor of the New
York Stock Exchange. At the time Ford was trading at $20 with
a $1.20 dividend, or 6%. This guy couldn”t get over what a great
deal it was. “6% is mighty attractive,” I remember him saying.
Of course I was thinking, it”s 6% because the company is in
trouble, you dope. In making its restructuring announcement on
Friday, Ford cut the annual dividend to 40 cents (the stock now
trades around $15).
As for GM, this week they raised their estimates on earnings
going forward to $3 a share for 2002 (versus a current Street
consensus of $1.93). Boy, I don”t know if I would have done
that just yet. Wait a quarter GM; the year is young.
–Euro: I”ve said enough the past few weeks. [If you are new to
the site, click on the “archives” link below.] There was one
market worthy comment, though, that being from China”s
finance minister who recommended buying more euros as a
hedge against the nation”s heavy exposure to the U.S. dollar.
This is the kind of talk that warms the cockles in Brussels.
–Energy: Snow in the Middle East, troops rescuing stranded
travelers in blizzards sweeping Greece and Turkey – continuing
above normal temperatures in North America. Since the U.S.
uses a helluva lot more energy than Persia, it doesn”t take an
Exxon engineer to tell you oil and gas inventories in the U.S. are
way above normal levels. And that creates a problem. Here in
New York, for example, we have yet to have a single day where
the temperature didn”t get above freezing (granted, good news if
you”re homeless, but that isn”t my target audience now, is it?!).
And while low energy prices are great for the economy, overall,
it”s death for those of us with an exposure to the sector.
Amazingly, the stocks had been holding up very nicely, until
Thursday and Friday as the price of oil slid back below $20 and
natural gas flirted with $2. Talk of an economic rebound had
been helping sentiment, but obviously if the recovery doesn”t
fully materialize, and the weather stays warm, well then,
Houston, we have a problem. All bets would be off. [See, I told
you Thomas Friedman was way off when he wrote an editorial
focusing on OPEC”s production cuts. It”s the economy and the
weather, stupid, at least at this moment.]
As for my own portfolio, I sold my Russian oil play simply
because I couldn”t pass up a 50% profit in a matter of months
and it was a way to reduce my energy exposure a bit. Don”t
worry, I still love the Russian story and will hop back into this
company if I see a substantial pullback, I just get leery anytime I
look at a chart and see a straight line up. I”m still in the black in
my other two plays, but I better reduce costs around here and
pass up the premium lager for a spell, just in case.
[While we”re on the subject of my personal holdings, my two
Turkey plays soared early on, then fell back to earth at the end of
the week as the feeling emerged that the country”s stock market
was getting well ahead of itself. Funny, this is a worldwide
phenomenon, isn”t it?]
–Conflicting stories on the asbestos litigation front this week:
rumors of positive judgments for corporations on one hand,
growing potential exposure for others. The bottom line is the
whole issue may be finally coming to a head and Congress is
going to be forced to act to put an end to this whole sham.
–Evidently, the New York City housing market is improving
rapidly after its initial post-9/11 swoon. However, there are
growing stories of potential long-term health problems in the
area of the Twin Towers; 6 police officers, for example, have
shown heightened levels of exposure to mercury. If this was to
be the tip of the iceberg, so much for a real estate rebound
downtown, at least.
–PIMCO”s Bill Gross is concerned the U.S. dollar is close to
peaking. This has been an issue for many on the Street for years
now, yet the currency has held fast as the U.S. remained the best
game in town. One of these days it all will reverse with adverse
consequences, as the positive effects of a strong $, low inflation
and foreign demand for our securities, turn into negatives and
funds are repatriated back home. [Though the weaker currency
would be good for U.S. manufacturers.]
–Mutual fund stat: For both the 5- and 10-year periods ending
12/31/01, small cap value outperformed the S&P 500. [Source:
Lipper]
–AP reported that customer complaints for Microsoft”s Xbox
would appear to be at a rate far above what”s normal for a new
product rollout. Most are citing shoddy customer service. On
the heels of a defect in Windows XP, which made it far easier for
hackers to steal your data, it”s certainly not a good trend.
–AOL Time Warner is taking a charge of up to $60 billion to
reflect the true value of goodwill on its balance sheet following
the decline in share prices for the two after the announced
merger. This sum is greater than the GDP of New Zealand.
Also, in preannouncing that its growth going forward wouldn”t
be as robust as once thought, AOL cited the “worst advertising
market in memory.”
–Patricia Russo returned to Lucent to become its new CEO after
spending all of about 8 months at Kodak as its president. This is
a classic dirtball move and it”s hoped here that Kodak employees
slashed her tires before she pulled out.
–That was mean. I apologize, especially since her office is three
blocks from my home.
–As I”ve noted before in this space, state tax revenues are
plummeting. In New Jersey, for example, it was reported this
week that December revenues will fall $500 million below
expectations. That”s no small potatoes, and it will eventually
translate into layoffs. It”s a similar situation around the country.
And as my friend M.R. noted, while Democrats are irrationally
blaming the President”s tax cut for our new budget woes, a large
part of the blame falls on the fact that revenues from capital
gains have simply dried up.
International
India / Pakistan: On Friday, India”s army chief said a “warlike
situation (is) developing.” It doesn”t help that India is going
ahead with semi-annual war games, which include the
preparation of the nation”s nuclear weapons. Earlier in the week
Pakistan”s President Musharraf offered peace talks but added, the
global campaign against terrorism must maintain a distinction
between “legitimate resistance and freedom struggles on the one
hand, and acts of terrorism on the other.” To which India”s
Prime Minister Vajpayee replied, “Terrorism uses different
religions, territorial, economic and ethnic justifications in
different countries.”
[Musharraf will have given a major speech to his people before
most of you read this. I won”t be able to comment on it until
next week.]
While these two enemies square off, China is sending massive
amounts of weaponry to its ally, Pakistan, and Musharraf better
always sit with his back to the wall because the extremists are
out to get him.
Israel: Back to normal this week, unfortunately. Hamas declared
its own ceasefire was over as they killed 4 Israeli soldiers in a
suicide mission, while it is increasingly clear that the Palestinian-
bound ship loaded with weapons was at least partly the
handiwork of Iran. Arafat ordered the massive purchase (which
included 3,000 pounds of C-4 explosives) and Iran was the
conduit. As William Safire discussed, when it comes to key
targets in the war on terror, “Saddam is in the lead, but the
military ayatollahs are closing fast.”
Iran / Iraq / Russia: Since 9/11, figures such as Donald Rumsfeld
have stressed that this new era would make for strange
bedfellows and initially the administration made some overtures
to Iran. I laid out my own scenario at the time, which involved
our new friend, Russia. In the case of both Iran and Iraq, I
surmised, Russia could be a huge help if we could convince them
that a change in regime in both would benefit Moscow and its
efforts to become the new Oil Tsar. At the same time the U.S.
would allow Russia to sell as many conventional arms to Iran as
their little hearts desired, but they”d have to help in the war
against terror and obviously not aid either nation”s nuclear
desires.
A pipedream? Well, it wasn”t, until perhaps this week. If we are
to believe the stories, the Bush administration is about to make a
huge mistake with regards to the hoped for reductions in nuclear
warheads by both Russia and the U.S. Suddenly, it would appear
we will really only destroy a few warheads and place the rest in
“storage.” This was not what Bush and Co. originally told
President Putin and Russian officials have every right to be upset
(they”re livid). Meetings between the two sides are to be held
soon on the whole topic of arms control and I hope this is
nothing more than the work of some low-level bureaucrat. If it
proves to be official administration policy, however, sorry, but
on this issue the president will lose my support.
Meanwhile, there is far more I want to say about Russia and
Putin, in particular, but in the interests of time, both yours and
mine, I need to hold off. For now there is much talk of the last
independent television station being shut down, while at the
same time Vladimir is fighting corruption on all fronts, including
the arrest of 3 Gazprom (the Russian gas giant) executives. I
obviously agree with the latter policy, but on the former – wait
until next week. You may be surprised as to my response.
Turkey: Senator McCain was among those Washington
representatives in Ankara a week ago and he told Tim Russert
that the government there is concerned about U.S. resolve when
it comes to Saddam. As I”ve written previously, if we show it,
Turkey is by our side. Regardless, they will be leading the
peacekeeping effort in Afghanistan in 3 months. Good luck.
Separately, Turkey accused Saudi Arabia of destroying an
Ottoman castle, dating back to 1780, which is located in Mecca.
Said one minister, “The Saudis appear to have made destroying
Ottoman relics their goal,” similar to the Taliban”s shelling of the
Buddhas last year.
In another matter, Turkey”s high court has forced the leader of a
pro-Islamic party to step down. The man is a popular former
mayor of Istanbul so some backlash against the government”s
strict, secularist policies is to be expected.
Greece: Please explain to me just what the Greek government is
doing when it comes to the war on terrorism? Way back on
10/7/00 in this space, I wrote of the 2004 Olympics in Athens
and the terrorist threat posed. [I also incorrectly thought that by
the end of 2001, the International Olympic Committee would
have wised up and switched the Games to Sydney.] Well,
hopefully you saw the “60 Minutes” piece last Sunday on the “17
November” terrorist group in Greece. Not one arrest has been
made in its 25+ year history of murder and mayhem, and the
organization is the main reason why the U.S. embassy in Athens
is the most heavily fortified in the world. So why haven”t any
been arrested? Collusion with the Socialist government is the
best explanation. We”re talking a member state of NATO and the
European Union, folks.
Colombia: Ordinarily, what happened down there last week
would have garnered a lot of attention. All you need to know is
that after 3 years of fruitless peace talks, the government broke
off negotiations with the rebels (FARC) and said “get off the
land we gave you.” The war here should escalate and the
concern is that the U.S. is in it deep because of the massive aid
we have supplied Bogota (which I supported). So anyone telling
you the Latin American continent is just all hunky-dory,
obviously thought Enron was a buy at $20.
Zimbabwe: President Mugabe has broadened police powers in
the country ahead of the March election, including the banning of
all criticism of Mugabe himself. The 2000 StocksandNews
“Dirtball of the Year” is also attempting to ban all foreign
journalists. Meanwhile, Britain is calling for Zimbabwe”s
suspension from the Commonwealth. Just a guess, but after the
election I suspect Tony Blair will be forced to send a commando
unit or two down there to extract some of Britain”s citizens.
Northern Ireland: Both Protestants and Catholics have a lot to be
ashamed of here. Protestant rioters continued to attack the
Catholic elementary school in Belfast (absolutely despicable),
while the Times of London reported that the IRA has had up to
25 members in Colombia, training the rebels fighting the
government. And all this while Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams
visits Cuba. Years ago, a shred of me sympathized with the IRA
cause (not the violence, however), but now it”s time for Adams et
al to be told in no uncertain terms, cut the crap or face the
consequences. [The editor is Catholic.]
Italy: Prime Minister Berlusconi, whom we have supported
around here, is proving to be a real embarrassment. [Hey, we
can”t be right all the time.] The respected foreign minister
resigned over disgust for his boss”s policies and Berlusconi
named himself to replace the statesman.
Random Musings
–The Washington Post reported that federal officials are
rounding up 6,000 young men of Middle Eastern origin who
have ignored deportation orders. Some bleeding hearts are
screaming, “That”s racial profiling.” I”m screaming, “Hurry up!
Catch them!”
–The Sunday Times of London piled on the evidence concerning
President Clinton and at least 3 separate opportunities he passed
up to bring in bin Laden.
–Loral settled with the government on a longstanding issue of
mine, the alleged passing of ballistic missile secrets to the
Chinese during the Clinton era. The government caved, and they
will do so again when it comes to a similar case against Hughes
Electronics (formerly run by AT&T”s C. Michael Armstrong). It
sucks. These guys should be in jail. Of course why should the
offenders care, after a little slap on the wrist?
–Speaking of missiles, much was made of an intelligence study
that said China would have 100 nukes aimed at the U.S. by 2015.
Of course it will be much sooner. Remember, this is the same
intelligence community that didn”t have a clue when it came to
India”s nuclear missile test (as well as Pakistan”s retaliation) and
now would also have you believe we don”t have to worry about
Iraq until 2010.
–Canada is sending 750 troops to Kandahar at the request of the
U.S. This is in stark contrast to the British general currently in
charge of the formal peacekeeping force, who turned Canada
down. The European Union wanted an all-European force.
Jordan and Malaysia were also told “we don”t want you.” An
incredibly stupid move, by a representative of 2001”s “Ally of
the Year.” Which is why I selected Turkey or Russia for 2002 –
ahem. But as an American, to our Canadian friends, welcome
aboard. We value your help.
–French President Jacques Chirac on the war on terrorism:
“Some countries will always try to shy away from their
obligations – the adoption of coercive measures against states
that refuse to cooperate.” I, like virtually every other American,
have long criticized the French for their lack of support on
various international issues. But thus far, France has been acting
like a solid ally in virtually every respect. I”ll choose to be
moderately optimistic on the prospects going forward,
recognizing that on items like Iran and Iraq, France and other
European allies will be prickly.
[On the coalition in general, the commander of the USS
Theodore Roosevelt said this week that naval help from our
friends has been “absolutely critical.” And it should also be
noted that French, Dutch and Italian warplanes are flying
missions over Afghanistan, though they have yet to be involved
in combat.]
–Joe Lieberman and John McCain were traveling together in
South Asia this week, which means they had the opportunity to
discuss 2004. I haven”t figured it out yet, but if McCain”s health
holds up, something could happen between these two.
–I noted months ago that my guess was Vice President Cheney
would announce right after the mid-term election that he was
stepping down and that Condoleezza Rice would replace him.
Yes, it”s a wild thought, but the Enron matter, in which Cheney
will be a key figure because of his meetings with Enron”s Ken
Lay, certainly helps my theory more than a bit. And remember,
Cheney and Rice could simply flip-flop offices.
–The brilliant Stephen Hawking celebrated his 60th birthday this
week. Miraculously, he has now lived 38 years with Lou
Gehrig”s disease, when the average survival time with this
condition is 3-5 years. Of course Professor Hawking”s theories
on the universe just blow me away, because my feeble brain
can”t process the data. But our own “Dr. Bortrum” makes up for
my lack of brainpower (and can normally make sense of his
work), so check out Bortrum”s tribute to Hawking.
–In March, the U.N. is holding a conference on financing and
development in Monterrey, Mexico, one which will bear
watching as there is talk of establishing an extra layer of
government at the world level. Of course, this will get the Black
helicopter crowd all lathered up and I wouldn”t be doing
cartwheels either. But until I see more details, I”ll defer further
comment. [And thanks to Mike H. for passing this initial info
along.]
–After 9/11, those of us in the New York area have been
subjected to a slew of tacky, inappropriate commercials. The
latest that irks the hell out of me is for an Infiniti dealership.
“For every car you purchase, XYZ will contribute $50 to the
September 11th Fund. Help us help the families.” And these
good folks will also contribute “10% of every service bill.” Talk
about the worst of America.
–What happened to flu season? Not one news story this year.
It”s so non-existent even the drug companies can”t create a crisis.
–Oprah generates $300 million in annual revenue on her
television show.
–A 17-year-old California kid swindled investors of at least $1
million through an Internet gambling scheme. He promised
outrageous rates of return on sporting contests and at least 1,000
were suckered into the deal. These must be the same folks who
punched out two chads for president on the Florida ballot.
–Last week I broke the truth about Buddy. He was working for
the DEA as a drug-sniffing canine. Since then, all manner of far-
fetched conspiracy theories have been advanced, most ascribing
to Buddy human traits. Hey, Buddy was a dog, folks. Now the
fact that he was working for the DEA is a different matter.
John Pollack, a former Clinton speechwriter, wrote a piece in the
New York Times from which supporters of my theory can
analyze two statements. “Buddy had free rein of the place,
including the oval office,” and “(he) would poke his nose into the
wastebasket outside (Sidney) Blumenthal”s office, rummaging
for a snack.” Hardly, Buddy was searching for drugs, which we
all know were prevalent in the Clinton White House.
As far as anything more sinister, forget it. Buddy did, however,
need a handler inside the administration, and my guess is it was
Al Gore. Of course, after the election Buddy”s value was limited,
except for history, and Gore, not being the conspiratorial type, at
least not like his former boss, nonetheless had to grow a beard
for those few occasions he would meet with Clinton. Bubba,
being the smart fellow he is, maybe would have suspected
something if Buddy were to leap into Al”s arms when his car
pulled up in the Chappaqua driveway. Watch Gore shave off his
beard in the next few months. That will be your sign.
–Frank Rich writes an op-ed piece for the Times and while he is
normally far left of myself, I do occasionally agree with a point
or two of his. For example, in his last column he ridiculed those
who plaster flags on their gas-guzzling cars. “We have no
interest in reducing our dependence on oil from the country that
nurtured most of the hijackers, Saudi Arabia.”
But then Mr. Rich dismissed those who label Iraq a “slam-dunk,”
with his point being these aren”t the ones who have to send their
son or daughter over there to fight. What?!
Let”s be clear. We have an all-volunteer army and the risks are
part of the deal. Yet this war is also about our very existence and
it will not be successful unless we eventually go through Iraq. At
the same time look at the reaction of the loved ones thus far.
They couldn”t be more proud and I have yet to hear any of the
parents or spouses question the purpose. I, for one, am eternally
grateful. They are all heroes I”ll never forget.
And so we conclude by honoring those who gave their lives in
the cause of freedom this week.
Cpt. Matthew Bancroft, Cpt. Daniel McCollum, Gunnery Sgt.
Stephen Bryson, Staff Sgt. Scott Germosen, Sgt. Nathan Hays,
Lance Cpl. Bryan Bertrand, Sgt. Jeannette Winters – all Marines.
God bless President Bush and the men and women of our armed
forces.
God bless America.
—–
Gold closed at $287 – a solid rally, thus far labeled “technical.”
Oil, $19.68
Returns for the week, 1/7-1/11
Dow Jones -2.7%
S&P 500 -2.3%
S&P MidCap -1.9%
Russell 2000 -1.9%
Nasdaq -1.8%
Returns for the period 1/1/02-1/11/02
Dow Jones -0.3%
S&P 500 -0.2%
S&P MidCap -0.0%
Russell 2000 +0.3%
Nasdaq +3.7%
Bulls 52.6%
Bears 22.7% [Source: Investors Intelligence – these figures
are important, from a contrarian standpoint. More next week.]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
