Wednesday, April 8, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed. Apr. 8…reg. $4.16…diesel $5.66…15 cents from all-time high….
Last night we sat back and waited…and at 6:32 PM ET, Tuesday, an hour-and-a-half before the deadline for further devastating attacks on Iran and its civilian infrastructure, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Based on conversations with Prime Minster Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Oil prices plummeted in the futures market, from about $112 on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $95.
Early Wednesday local time, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the country had achieved its war aims and signaled its intention to continue asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said it supports Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks, but that it doesn’t include the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
From Iran’s Foreign Ministry Office early Wednesday local time:
“On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.
“In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
“If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.
“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
“Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Iran”
President Trump on Truth Social, 12:01 AM, Wed.
“A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
President Trump on Truth Social, 7:22 AM, Wed.
“The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear ‘Dust.’ It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillanc“e (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Oil dropped further following this post to $93 on WTI, $92 on Brent…down the most in six years.
Both the U.S. and Iran are portraying the ceasefire as a “victory,” but significant differences remain between their demands to bring the war to a complete end, such as Iran says it will allow free passage for the next two weeks through the Strait, but in coordination with Iran’s armed forces, with Iran collecting a toll.
Some of Trump’s biggest backers – and strongest proponents of the attacks – expressed caution.
“We must remember that the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said on X. “Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world.”
Iran hoped China could be one of the security guarantors of peace in the region, Iranian ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said in Beijing on Wednesday.
But he also warned of a strong “fightback” from Iran if the United States betrayed its trust again.
“We hope different sides could guarantee that the U.S. would not resume the war, we hope the UN Security Council, big countries like China and Russia, as well as mediating countries like Pakistan and Turkey will work together to guarantee peace in the region,” Fazli told a press conference in the Chinese capital.
In an interview with Agence France-Presse following the announcement of a ceasefire, Trump said he believed China had played a key role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei was up about 5.4%, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained 6.9%.
London’s FTSE index rose 2.5%, while the German DAX surged 5.1%.
But the Strait of Hormuz reopened only with limited traffic: Several ships have crossed the vital shipping passage, according to the New York Times, but there hasn’t been a full-scale return of traffic, as some vessels seem wary of crossing because of the risks and unknowns.
And then Iran paused oil tanker traffic through the Strait after Israel attacked Lebanon.
The Financial Times reported that Iran is planning to charge the cryptocurrency equivalent of $1 per barrel of oil passing through the Strait.
At the same time, Pakistan is saying its understanding was that Lebanon was to be included in the ceasefire. This is a huge issue. Netanyahu says Lebanon is not included, and President Trump agreed.
It was announced this afternoon that Vice President JD Vance was going to Pakistan this weekend (along with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) for talks with Iranian negotiators.
The Israeli military carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon today, pounding Beirut again with reports of a high number of casualties, hospitals overwhelmed and people believed to be under the rubble of collapsed buildings.
Israel described it as the largest wave of air strikes in this conflict, hitting more than 100 of what it called Hezbollah command centers and military sites in 10 minutes.
Across Lebanon, more than 1,500 people have been killed, including 130 children.
More than 1.2 million people have been displaced – one in five of the population – most of them from Shia Muslim communities in the south, the eastern Bekaa Valley and the southern suburbs of Beirut, areas where Hezbollah holds sway.
I’ve been to Beirut twice and the pictures of the people living in tents along the waterfront are right in front of the beautiful hotel I would stay at.
And then just a few hours ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X:
“The Iran-U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.
“The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”
Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf posted, noting among the violations of the ceasefire agreed to was:
“Non-compliance with the first clause of the 10-Point Proposal regarding the ceasefire In Lebanon – a commitment that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also explicitly referred to and declared as ‘an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately.’”
Why the markets rallied, and oil declined, as much as they did today was a puzzlement….
Dow Jones +1326…+2.9% [47910]
S&P 500 +165…+2.5% [6782]
Nasdaq +617…+2.8% [22635]
Oil (WTI) $96.30…Brent $96.10
Gold $4750
Silver $74.50
Bitcoin $71,315 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.78%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.28%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.35%
Back Thurs.
Brian Trumbore
