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Edition 1,412
Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping wrapped up their two-day summit in Beijing today and I get into it in detail down below.
But what we know, understanding there could be some formal announcements on trade in the coming days, or maybe not, is that President Trump comes home with seemingly zero deliverables, including on getting China’s help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the Iran war.
China has no reason to help. Xi’s long game is to let the U.S. suffer, to further roil American politics and weaken the United States’ standing in the world.
For his part, President Trump said in the final moments of his discussions with Xi today, “There are those who say this is the biggest summit ever!”
Hardly. I just saw Professor Jeremy Siegel, who famously wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in early 2000, calling the Nasdaq crash (I posted it that week in this very space), say on CNBC that on a scale of 1-to-10, he rated the summit a minus-2. [I’d give it a plus-2.]
I do give Trump credit for appearing to hold his ground on Taiwan, at least that’s my reading of it, in not answering Xi’s questions on what the United States would do if China invaded the island. But the president needs to approve a big arms package to the island soon to warrant my optimism on this front.
And the president couldn’t even bring back imprisoned human rights activist Jimmy Lai (though I won’t be surprised if Lai is quietly released in the next month).
On his flight home on Air Force One, Trump’s first posts on Truth Social concerned the site for the “NATIONAL GARDEN OF AMERICAN HEROES” and the ballroom, the latter accompanied by a photo of Trump walking with Xi.
“China has a Ballroom, and so should the U.S.A.! It’s under construction, ahead of schedule, and will be the finest facility of its kind anywhere in the U.S.A. Thank you for all the support I have been given in getting this project going. Scheduled opening will be around September of 2028. The man I am walking with is President Xi, of China, one of the world’s Great Leaders!”
Xi Jinping is not a great leader, Mr. President. He is evil, a dictator.
Next up in Beijing is Russian President Vladimir Putin, due to arrive next Wednesday for his own little summit with Xi.
All Putin did this week was indiscriminately attack all across Ukraine in the biggest two-day assault with drones and missiles since the war began; this right after Trump’s 3-day ceasefire that he got the two sides to agree to.
Among the victims were 24 residents in a Kyiv apartment tower, blasted to pieces, rescue workers still trying to uncover bodies, and hopefully, survivors, two days after.
Not one word from President Trump. In the past month, I can’t recall a single ‘Truth,’ as he calls his Truth Social posts, on Putin and Ukraine.
Instead, when questioned by reporters on the topic, Trump gives his usual line, “I think we’re very close to an agreement.” He’s been uttering that since his inauguration. It’s a sick joke.
The New York Times had an extensive piece on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who “seems to be stepping back” from his relationship with the United States, “distancing his country from what was once its biggest ally.”
“Since the war in Iran started, U.S. negotiators have had ‘no time for Ukraine,’ Mr. Zelensky has complained. An American decision to suspend sanctions on some Russian oil in the hopes of easing economic tensions from the war in Iran gives the Kremlin ‘a sense of impunity,’ he protested. In pushing Ukraine to trade territory for peace, the Trump administration ‘still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side’ than on Russia, he grumbled.”
Bottom line… “The peace talks ‘are dead,’ said Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at Rasmussen Global, a European political advisory firm. “There’s no real negotiation anymore. There’s no talks anymore. Russia has no incentive to do it now. And neither is the United States now appearing as a reliable, reasonable broker between the two.”
Back in Beijing, Xi Jinping observes this as well, no doubt a smile creasing his lips.
—
On to Iran…as it went down, day by day….
Tale of the Tape….
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30.
Friday, May 15…$105.60…up $11 on the week.
The global benchmark for crude, Brent, is $109.30.
Nationwide average prices at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98; diesel $3.75.
Friday, May 15…regular $4.52; diesel $5.66.
Late last Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the U.S. of opting for a “reckless military adventure” every time a “diplomatic solution is on the table.”
Iranians would “never bow to pressure,” Araghchi said in a post on X, a day after both sides accused each other of launching attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and as the U.S. fired on more Iranian vessels.
“Is it a crude pressure tactic?” Araghchi asked. “Or the result of a spoiler once again duping POTUS into another quagmire?”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he was expecting Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal Friday night.
“I hope it’s a serious offer, I really do,” Rubio said during a visit to Italy.
Iran finally sent its reply early Sunday afternoon ET, according to the Wall Street Journal, a multipage response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the conflict, including its own demands.
The report said the response doesn’t resolve the U.S. demand for advance commitments about Iran’s nuclear program and stores of highly enriched uranium. The report added that Iran is proposing to end the fighting and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic as the U.S. lifts its blockade.
The state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency reported the terms laid out in Iran’s response, including U.S. war reparations to Iran, the recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait and the U.S. rolling back sanctions.
Restrictions on the Strait would be lifted immediately once the sides agree, under the terms of the memorandum.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized Sunday that Iran will not yield to U.S. pressure.
“We will never bow our heads before the enemy, and if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat,” Pezeshkian wrote in a post on X.
Trump on Truth Social, Sunday, 1:52 PM:
“Iran has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years (DELAY, DELAY, DELAY!), and they finally hit ‘pay dirt’ when Barack Hussein Obama became President… For 47 years the Iranians have been ‘tapping’ us along, keeping us waiting, killing our people with their roadside bombs, destroying protests, and recently wiping out 42,000 innocent, unarmed protestors, and laughing at our now GREAT AGAIN Country. They will be laughing no longer! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Trump, Sunday, 4:12 PM:
“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it – TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
That’s all the post said, so it wasn’t clear Sunday evening what specifically in Iran’s counterproposal triggered the reaction.
Iran insists it wants to see the American blockade end and sanctions lifted before beginning negotiations over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The U.S. – and Israel – want that material removed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the war is “not over.” In an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes,” he said there is more work needed to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability and to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Despite the ceasefire in place since April 8, a drone strike on Sunday briefly set a cargo vessel ablaze off Qatar in the Persian Gulf, marking the latest shipping attack in the region.
The UAE and Kuwait, both of which have come under attack from Iran in the past two months, said Sunday they had intercepted hostile drones.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also warned the UK and France in a post on X that the presence of its warships in the Strait will be met with a “decisive and immediate response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, said Sunday in a statement that “if trade flows resume immediately or today through the Strait of Hormuz, it will take a few months for the oil market to rebalance.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran’s proposal to end the war is legitimate and generous.
“Our demand is legitimate: demanding an end to the war, lifting the (U.S.) blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to U.S. pressure,” Baghaei said.
“Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer for regional security.”
The U.S. parameters for nuclear talks reportedly included a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment for up to 20 years; the transfer overseas, possibly to the U.S., of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium; and the dismantling of Iranian nuclear facilities.
According to the aforementioned Wall Street Journal story, the Iranian counterproposal suggested a shorter moratorium, the export of part of the HEU stockpile and the dilution of the rest, and refusal to accept the dismantling of facilities.
President Trump, addressing reporters Monday, said the Iran ceasefire is on “massive life support” after he rejected Tehran’s latest proposal to end the war. Officials said the proposal included the nuclear program, but Trump dismissed it as “garbage.”
Asked at a White House event if the ceasefire was still in place, Trump said it’s “unbelievably weak” and on “life support.”
“I would call it the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us,” Trump added. “I didn’t even finish reading it.”
Also, Trump said he would support suspending the federal gasoline tax, responding to the surge in fuel prices.
“I’m going to,” he told reporters, arguing that gas prices will “drop like a rock” once the war winds down. Asked how long the tax should be suspended, Trump said, “Until it’s appropriate,” adding that the tax is a relatively small proportion of the cost of gas “but it’s still money.”
Any effort to suspend the gas tax would require congressional approval. Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) said Monday on social media that he would introduce a bill to suspend the 18 cent-per-gallon tax. Democrats have endorsed similar legislation.
“Families need help now,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D., Ariz.) wrote on X. “Let’s get it done.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal…Mon. PM:
“Days late and tons of enriched uranium short, Iran’s regime rejected the U.S. peace offer on Sunday and replied with unserious demands. On Monday President Trump called Iran’s counteroffer a ‘piece of garbage’ that leaves the cease-fire ‘on massive life support’….
“Call it a standoff. Before Iran’s response, Mr. Trump had said, ‘If they don’t agree, the bombing starts.’ He had also said, ‘We may go back to Project Freedom,’ the U.S. effort to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, ‘if things don’t happen.’ This would be ‘Project Freedom plus other things,’ which may be necessary to protect oil tankers.
“Iran spent last week trashing the cease-fire, twice attacking U.S. warships with missiles, drones and speed boats, and repeatedly firing on the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. ally. The U.S. responded only to the sources of the fire with what the President called ‘just a love tap.’
“By clinging to the cease-fire through it all, Mr. Trump sent the wrong signal. Iran’s regime clearly thinks it can outlast a President who no longer wants the fight. ‘They think that I’ll get tired of this or I’ll get bored, or I’ll have some pressure,’ Mr. Trump recognized in his Monday remarks, ‘but there’s no pressure at all. We’re going to have a complete victory.’
“The problem is that he is under pressure, and everyone knows it. Why else is the President now talking about pausing the gas tax? Mr. Trump is right about the regime’s perception of him, but he’ll have to prove it wrong.
“The achievements of the war are real, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out on ’60 Minutes’ on Sunday. Iran’s long-range missiles, missile production, navy and air defenses have been smashed, along with nuclear scientists and nuclear weaponization sites. The regime is showing fissures and has lost much of its ‘money machine,’ plus its immunity from direct attack.
“ ‘We broke the barrier of fear,’ Mr. Netanyahu said. The regime must now take that into account.
“Yet Mr. Netanyahu didn’t mince words about what remains to be done. ‘It’s not over,’ he said. ‘There’s still nuclear material, enriched uranium, that has to be taken out of Iran. There are still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled…There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce.’….
“Could a deal address the outstanding issues in Iran? So far, no. The regime’s counteroffer rejected any dismantling of nuclear facilities. It demanded major sanctions relief before making nuclear commitments, and sought to hang on to much of its enriched uranium and shorten a moratorium on further enrichment.
“This is a regime that thinks it can absorb economic pain from the U.S. blockade longer than Mr. Trump can tolerate higher prices for oil and petrochemicals. Mr. Trump will have to persuade Tehran’s leaders they’ve underestimated him – and the pain.”
Tuesday, a top Pentagon official testified that the cost of the war with Iran had risen to around $29 billion, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused repeatedly to tell members of Congress how much he would request on an emergency basis, or when, to fund the 11-week-old conflict. [Many put it the real cost at over $40 billion.]
Jay Hurst, the Pentagon comptroller, said the cost of the war had risen to “closer” to $29 billion since Hegseth testified on Capitol Hill two weeks ago, when he estimated it had cost $25 billion.
“That’s because of updated repair and replacement of equipment costs and also just general operational costs,” Hurst said.
Hurst, testifying to the Senate, added the $29 billion estimate did not include the cost of repairing more than a dozen American military bases damaged by Iranian attacks.
“We don’t know how those bases would be reconstructed,” Hurst testified, adding, “We just have a good estimate at this time.”
Regarding the issue of the dwindling weapons stockpile, Hegseth said it “has been foolishly and unhelpfully overstated. We know exactly what we have. We have plenty of what we need.”
Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also sought to allay fears that the war had significantly drained much of the U.S. military’s global supply of munitions.
“We have sufficient munitions for what we’re tasked to do right now,” General Caine said, citing what he said top commanders around the world had told him.
Separately, the New York Times reported late Tues:
“The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.
“Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway….
“Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea.
“Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be ‘partially or fully operational,’ the people with knowledge of the assessments said.”
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 66% of U.S. adults said Trump hasn’t “clearly explained” U.S. military goals in Iran, and 63% said their financial situation has been impacted by the steep rise in gas prices.
Thursday, Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait in recent hours, while the semi-official Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing transit for some Chinese vessels.
But crude oil prices kept marching higher, hitting $105 on West Texas Intermediate Friday morning.
Iran appears to have tightened its control over the Strait, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region.
–In Lebanon, 39 people were killed over the weekend in intense Israeli strikes, the country’s health ministry said.
One Israeli strike on the southern town of Saksakiyeh killed at least seven people, including a child, the ministry said.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said it had been targeting Hezbollah and was “aware of reports regarding harm to uninvolved civilians.”
Hezbollah has continued to fire drones into northern Israel and injured three civilians in one such attack on Thursday.
—
China, Part II….
President Trump arrived in Beijing for his two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping Wednesday evening, and at the start of talks Thursday morning, Xi delivered a warning on Taiwan to Trump, saying that the issue, if handled poorly, could lead to conflict and “an extremely dangerous situation.”
Xi’s warning was a stark reminder that Taiwan, a self-governing island claimed by China, is a red line.
Inside the Great Hall, Xi called for the two countries to work together to confront an increasingly “complex and turbulent world.”
“We should be partners, not adversaries,” he said.
Trump emphasized his personal relationship with Xi and said the two leaders speak to each other on the phone to work out problems. “You’re a great leader,” he told Xi.
But Xi made clear that Taiwan had the potential to spoil the relationship. “If handled poorly, the two countries will collide or even clash, putting the entire U.S.-China relationship in an extremely dangerous situation,” according to a readout from Xinhua, China’s official news agency.
One of China’s related priorities is persuading the United States to curtail its arms sales to Taiwan.
In his opening remarks, Xi invoked one of his most popular themes when he said the world was undergoing a “once-in-a-century transformation.”
More commonly expressed as “great changes unseen in a century,” the phrase has become a staple of Chinese diplomatic rhetoric to refer to the demise of the post-World War II order dominated by the United States.
Xi has turned a phrase uttered by Li Hongzhang, a Qing dynasty general and official from 1872, into a battle cry – a call for China to once again seize the opportunity to build up technological superiority and edge out the United States as the world’s superpower while Trump is retreating from global leadership.
Xi was saying as the talks began that the United States can no longer push China around, and the two leaders need to come to an agreement as to how the world’s two most powerful countries can coexist.
Xi expressed the hope that the U.S. and China could avoid conflict and asking “whether the two countries can transcend the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new model for relations between major powers.”
This refers to the idea that when a rising power threatened to displace an established one, the result is often war.
But Xi also said: “Cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both,” he said. “The two countries should be partners rather than rivals.”
Aside from Taiwan, Xi and Trump discussed trade, the Middle East, Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, according to Xinhua. Details about the talks were not immediately released and there was little indication of whether there had been any breakthroughs.
The two men last met in October in South Korea, where they agreed to pause a trade war in which Beijing had threatened sweeping new export restrictions on rare earths in response to heavy U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Xi decided at the time to postpone those measures for a year.
Later in the day, as Xi was taking Trump and the entourage on a tour of historic sites, the two appeared for photos and a pool reporter asked Trump if the topic of Taiwan had come up and Trump continued his previous thought saying, “great place, incredible, China’s beautiful.”
Asked again if he had talked about Taiwan, Trump simply looked straight ahead, as did Xi.
The question was asked a third time, after the two men had turned to walk towards the steps to the Temple of Heaven.
Later, Secretary of State Rubio, in an interview with NBC News, said U.S. policy toward Taiwan was “unchanged” but warned that it would be “a terrible mistake” for China to take Taiwan by force.
Rubio said: “They always raise it (Taiwan) on their side. We always make clear our position, and we move on to the other topics.”
The White House readout of Day One did not mention Taiwan directly, but, in relation to Iran, said both sides had agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open.
Taiwan said after the Xi-Trump meeting that it was grateful for Washington’s “long-term support.”
A number of top executives, including Jensen Huang of chip giant Nvidia, Elon Musk, and Tim Cook joined the president in China, and Xi promised to open more avenues for commerce for American corporations, including increasing Chinese investment into U.S. industries.
In an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity after the first day, Trump said Xi agreed for his country to purchase soybeans, energy and jets from the U.S. He also said Xi committed to withholding military equipment form Iran.
China has maintained throughout the war that it is not supplying Iran with weapons. But the New York Times reported Wednesday that U.S. officials said Chinese companies have been discussing arms sales with Iran.
A White House official said in a readout of the meeting between Trump and Xi that both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
The Chinese readout of their interactions didn’t mention these commitments. Instead, it was more vague, discussing the importance of strong economic ties between the U.S. and China and warning the U.S. on the issue of Taiwan.
And then after day two….
Xi hailed the results of his meetings with Trump and touted an agreement on a new relationship for their countries, projecting optimism despite unresolved tensions and limited deals announced so far.
“This visit is a historic and landmark visit. Thus far, we have established a new bilateral relationship – a constructive strategic stable relationship – which constitutes a milestone event,” Xi said while hosting Trump in Zhongnanhai, the secretive headquarters of the ruling Communist Party and residence of its top leaders. “We have achieved many cooperative outcomes.”
Trump said: “It’s been really a great couple of days.”
The two countries reached an “important consensus” on maintaining stable economic and trade relations while expanding cooperation in various fields, according to a readout published Friday by Xinhua News Agency before Trump departed. Neither side has released details of their commercial deals, which may be announced in the coming days.
In an interview Trump said China agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes; and later said with a commitment to buy 750 more “if they do a good job,” but the 200 supposed commitment fell short of the 500 that was expected.
And there was nothing on Nvidia’s H200 chips, Trump needlessly dragging Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang along for the ride.
The U.S. and China were also discussing a mechanism for fast-tracking some Chinese investment deals, along with a reduction in tariffs on a swath of non-critical goods, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC Thursday.
China: Editorial / Wall Street Journal, prior to the summit….
“President Trump visits Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, and the pre-meeting U.S. spin is a search for ‘stability.’ It’s a nice idea, as long as Mr. Trump doesn’t think personal rapport can overcome Mr. Xi’s anti-American purposes.
“The agenda ranges from trade to technology to Iran. On trade, the best outcome may be ratifying the status quo – a truce on tariffs with a promise from Beijing not to hold the world’s rare-earths supply hostage again, as it did after Mr. Trump’s tariff threats last year.
“Mr. Xi’s weak economy is an incentive for him to cooperate, and he’ll hope to placate Mr. Trump with promises of buying more farm goods, aircraft, and more. But Mr. Xi has made that promise before, and U.S. farmers have never regained their lost market share in China.
“Mr. Xi’s rare-earths ransom offer may be more U.S. advanced chips exports to China. Mr. Xi views artificial intelligence as a decisive theater in Beijing’s competition with the U.S., and he is trailing, though not by much. The Administration wants talks with Beijing about AI guardrails, and by all means keep the phone lines open.
“But don’t expect much from AI arms control, and the best deterrent is U.S. dominance on models and computing power. Beijing will be happy to make pronouncements about responsible stewardship – and then pursue its own interests with little regard for norms or laws.
“Beijing is engaging in ‘industrial-scale’ theft of America’s AI models, the Trump Administration warned this year. And don’t forget the Justice Department indictment this year of a technology executive and associates allegedly running a sophisticated operation to divert high-end chips to China….
“The Venus fly trap Mr. Xi is setting for Mr. Trump is on Taiwan. Mr. Xi wants veto power over U.S. arms sales to the island, and he is pressing for the U.S. formally to ‘oppose’ Taiwanese independence, as opposed to the current posture of ‘not supporting’ it. Mr. Xi will argue the tweak is of no great consequence to Americans and stroke Mr. Trump’s ego that he can bring peace to one more troubled region.
“Yet that change would disrupt decades of U.S. policy that, for all its delicate diplomatic wording, has held the peace. Taiwan is not the aggressor in the Taiwan Strait, a Xi fiction that ‘opposing independence’ would indulge.
“Mr. Trump may not care about Taiwan’s freedom or its example that a prosperous Chinese democracy is possible. But the President doesn’t want a crisis on his watch, which would be an economic and geopolitical catastrophe. But Mr. Xi will be looking to see if Mr. Trump suggests he won’t defend Taiwan in the clutch.
“Mr. Trump’s diplomacy is above all personal, and no one can predict what he’ll do in the room. Japan and others in the region are watching with anxiety – a reminder that U.S. support for Taipei is an interest that informs America’s alliances around the world. One mistake would be not stopping in Tokyo in advance of Beijing as a signal of solidarity with Japan….
“The second Trump Administration is searching for détente, and Mr. Trump is the chief dove. A détente has some merit if America spends the interlude diversifying its rare-earth supply chain and passing a $1.5 trillion defense budget to rearm.
“Mr. Xi has studied the President and thinks he has trump cards on minerals and pharmaceuticals. Behind the talk of goodwill in Beijing, this reality hasn’t changed: Mr. Xi is playing a long game to overthrow the U.S. as the world’s leading power.”
Regarding the issue of Taiwan and Xi’s threats…the Journal editorialized:
“Mr. Trump reportedly said nothing in response to Mr. Xi’s Thucydides play, which we hope is a good sign. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump, told NBC that ‘they always raise [Taiwan] on their side,’ but ‘we always make clear our position and we move on to other topics.’ He added that it would be a ‘terrible mistake’ if China were to take Taiwan by force.
“The test for Mr. Trump now will be whether he releases a long-awaited U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. Mr. Xi wants a veto over those sales, but Taiwan needs U.S. weapons as a deterrent as it works to reach its goal of spending 5% of its economy on defense by 2030.
“Speaking of Thucydides and traps, one risk is that Mr. Xi really believes China is a rising power that can become a new Middle Kingdom in which everyone else is a vassal state. His economy depends too much on exports for jobs, the country is aging fast, and its military hasn’t fought a real war in decades. He might fall into his own trap if he thinks the U.S. really is in decline enough for China to risk a war.”
I’d add that Xi, in purging most of his top generals the past two years, even purged the only general with war experience going back to the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted 51-45 to approve Kevin Warsh as a governor on the Federal Reserve Board, and the next day the Senate voted to make him chair of the central bank. Only one Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, voted with Republicans to confirm Warsh to a 14-year term on the Board of Governors.
Warsh took the seat of Fed governor Stephen Miran, who stepped down after being appointed to serve out the remaining term of former governor Adriana Kugler.
That seat is the only one scheduled to become vacant during the rest of President Trump’s term in office. [Assuming the Supreme Court rules against the president, as expected, in his effort to oust governor Lisa Cook.]
Warsh then formally assumed the role of Fed Chair on Friday, replacing Jerome Powell, but Powell has opted to remain on the Fed board for an indeterminate period, breaking with the usual precedent for departing chairs. His term as governor is not up until January 2028.
But while President Trump wants Warsh to cut interest rates, Warsh is but one vote and the inflation numbers clearly argue against this.
Speaking of which, on Tuesday we had the consumer price report for April, and it was hot. The headline figures were 0.6% and 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023. On core, ex-food and energy, the numbers were 0.4% and 2.8%.
Among the individual items, the index for food rose 0.5% in April over March after being unchanged in March. The food at home index surged 0.7%.
Beef prices rose another 2.7%, 14.8% from a year earlier. [Chicken, on the other hand, was down 1.1% in April, and is down 0.7% year-over-year.]
Gasoline, as you might imagine, was up 5.4% last month, and 28.4% from a year ago.
Airline fares rose 2.8% and are now 20.7% higher than in April 2025.
And coffee is up 18.5% from a year earlier.
Wednesday, we then had the producer price report for April, and it was similarly bad news…much worse than expected.
The PPI rose a whopping 1.4%, 6.0% from a year ago on headline, and ex-food and energy, 1.0% and 5.2%.
Year-over-year, the Street was looking for 4.9% (headline) and 4.3% (core).
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The real challenge for Mr. Warsh will be navigating the economic reality he inherits of renewed inflation, an oil shock affecting consumer confidence, and a President who always wants lower interest rates but higher tariffs. Cut interest rates too much to accommodate the oil shock and he might accelerate inflation. But raising rates to fight a temporary oil-caused price spike could cause a recession.
“Wish Mr. Warsh good luck. He – and we – will need it.”
In other economic news, April retail sales were in line, 0.5%, but this was compared with a 1.6% gain in March.
April existing home sales inched higher by 0.2% from the seven-month low in the prior month to an annualized rate of 4.02 million units, slightly below expectations, pressured by higher mortgage rates after the surge in energy prices drove a spike in long-term Treasury yields.
Sales fell sharply in the West (-2.6% to 750,000), offsetting an increase in the Midwest (2.2% to 950,000).
April industrial production was up 0.7%, better than projected.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth rose to 4.0%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.36%.
Europe and Asia
We had a flash estimate of first-quarter GDP in the eurozone, 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, and up 0.8% from Q1 2025, the latter down from the fourth quarter’s 1.3% annualized pace. [Eurostat]
March industrial production in the EA21 increased by 0.2% over February, though it decreased by 2.1% from a year ago.
But the big news in Europe concerned the fate of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has defied calls to resign, telling ministers this week he would “get on with governing” despite growing calls to set out a timetable for his departure after a drubbing in local elections.
At a meeting of his cabinet, Starmer, in the top job for less than two years, repeated that, while he took responsibility for one of his Labour Party’s worst election defeats, there had been no official move to trigger a leadership contest.
But then health secretary Wes Streeting resigned on Thursday, and both he and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham appear ready to challenge Starmer’s party leadership, though Burnham needs to win a by-election in Makerfield…since he has to be a member of parliament to challenge Starmer.
Aside from the big summit, we had some data releases from China this week, including April inflation, 1.2% vs. 1.0% the month prior and a consensus of 0.8%. Producer prices in the month surged 2.8% vs. 0.5% prior and a forecast of 1.5%, fueled by surging global commodity and energy prices.
April exports were strong, up 14.1% year on year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, well above consensus and accelerating sharply from March’s 2.5% rise.
The acceleration came as companies rushed to stockpile components from the manufacturing powerhouse amid fears that the Iran war could push input costs even higher.
Shipments to the U.S. soared 11.3% from a year ago, returning to growth after a 26.5% plunge in March despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Japan’s producer prices in April rose 2.3%, the highest pace since April 2014, and vs. consensus of 0.7%. Year-over-year the figure was 4.9% vs. 2.9% prior.
Street Bytes
—The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday before selling off a bit today, while the Dow Jones was also back over 50,000 yesterday but shy of its all-time high.
On the week, we finished mixed, the Dow Jones down 0.2% to 49526, the S&P up 0.1%, and Nasdaq barely down 0.1%.
Shares of Cerebras soared in their stock market debut on Thursday, setting the stage for what’s expected to be a blockbuster year for artificial-intelligence IPOs.
The chip company’s stock ended the day at $311, up 68% from its IPO price of $185.
OpenAI and Anthropic – two of the biggest players in the industry – are looking at IPOs in the second half of this year. And then there is the biggie – Elon Musk’s SpaceX recently acquired xAI, maker of the Grok chatbot, and is aiming to go public in June.
Next week, Nvidia’s earnings.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.72% 2-yr. 4.08% 10-yr. 4.59% 30-yr. 5.13%
As energy prices surged anew, and as the inflation data was awful, no surprise then that yields spiked, not just in the U.S. but globally as well.
The 10-year Treasury is at its highest weekly close since Jan. 31, 2025, up 23 basis points on the week. [13 bps today.]
The yield on the German 10-year went from 3.00% to 3.16%. In the UK, owing in part to the political turmoil there, it rose from 4.91% to 5.17%, and the Japanese 10-year is at its highest levels since 1997, 2.70%, up 24 basis points for the week.
—The International Energy Agency said the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has unleashed an unprecedented supply shock on global energy markets, one that could keep oil supplies constrained for months even after shipping through the vital waterway resumes.
The Paris-based energy watchdog expects global oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels a day this year, from its previous forecast of an 80,000-barrel-a-day decline, as disrupted tanker traffic and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations reverberate through the global economy.
The IEA’s base-case scenario assumes flows through Hormuz will gradually resume from June. Supply, however, would recover far more slowly because of infrastructure damage, logistical bottlenecks and the need to clear Iranian mines from the Strait before normal export operations can restart.
Even after mines are cleared, it would likely take at least two to three months to fully restore steady export operations as oil tankers exit the Gulf, empty vessels are repositioned and port loading schedules are reorganized, the IEA said.
In April, output from Gulf producers was 14.4 million barrels a day below prewar levels.
The IEA now expects global supply to fall by 3.9 million barrels a day this year.
OPEC+ annual production is projected to plunge by 4.7 million barrels a day due to losses from Gulf producers, while non-OPEC+ output is forecast to rise by 820,000 barrels a day.
But once-ample inventories around the globe, pre-war, are plummeting at a record pace, with oil executives and analysts predicting that a harsh reckoning is set to upend the relative calm in energy markets. Acute shortages of key fuels and soaring prices could emerge within weeks if the Strait remains shut.
“You can only decrease consumption so much, and when inventories run out, they are going to run out,” said Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. “At some point the market is going to collide and prices are going to shoot up.”
—Cisco Systems stock surged 15% after the networking equipment maker reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter financials.
Hyperscalers like Meta Platforms are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build out their artificial intelligence infrastructure. That spending is showing up in the earnings results of companies like Cisco, as they make the components needed to power AI.
“Our technology is more relevant than ever in the AI era. As a result, we saw record high demand in Q3,” CEO Chuck Robbins said on the earnings call Wednesday night.
Cisco reported adjusted earnings for the quarter ended April 26 of $1.06 a share on revenue of $15.8 billion. The Street was at $1.03 a share on revenue of $15.6 billion.
The company issued fiscal fourth-quarter guidance substantially above analyst estimates.
And Cisco announced that it’s cutting about 4,000 jobs, or less than 5% of its workforce, in a restructuring effort.
“The companies that will win in the AI era will be those with focus, urgency, and the discipline to continuously shift investment toward the areas where demand and long-term value creation are strongest. I’m confident Cisco will be one of those winners. This means making hard decisions,” Robbins said in a blog post on Wednesday.
According to Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks tech layoffs, 103,571 tech employees have been laid off in 2026. That’s getting close to the 124,201 total the website reported for all of 2025.
—Airlines are increasing ancillary fees, like for checked bags, to offset jet fuel costs, which are 70% higher than before the Iran war.
U.S. airlines collected over $5.47 billion in checked bag fees, the largest single source of ancillary revenue, in the first three quarters of 2025.
The airlines are raising the fees because they know they can only raise ticket prices so much.
The hike in jet fuel raises airlines’ fuel costs from 24% of a typical flight to more than 30% to 35%, according to Henry Harteveldt, president and travel industry analyst with Atmosphere Research Group in San Francisco. “Airlines cannot be expected to absorb all of that high jet fuel cost” and pass along all of it through increased ticket prices, Harteveldt said.
“Airlines know they can increase domestic airfares only so much,” he said.
Spirit Airlines blamed the spike in fuel prices when it announced it was shutting down May 2.
Airlines don’t want to keep people from traveling, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, so “Everywhere they can spread it out, they’re going to spread it out.”
De Haan told Barron’s that the airfare for a summer trip to Italy that he bought for $737.63 jumped to $850 in mid-March, and now costs more than $1,200.
—Boeing shares fell a little on word its monthly deliveries came in a touch light of expectations.
Boeing delivered 47 planes and booked 136 gross orders for new aircraft in April, which was much more than the eight deliveries in April 2025, but the Street was expecting a total above 50.
Boeing is still forecast to deliver 662 planes in 2026, up from 600 in 2025. The manufacturer has to average 59 plane deliveries over the remaining eight months of this year to meet that expectation.
–We had a truly scary incident at Denver International Airport late last Friday when a Frontier Airlines plane struck and killed a person on the runway as it was taking off.
The pilots aborted the takeoff, and the plane was evacuated after reporting an engine fire.
The airbus A321 jet, with 224 passengers and seven crew members, was leaving on a flight to Los Angeles when the collision took place. The passengers were safely evacuated.
The unidentified man, it was learned, had breached the outer airport fences minutes before. The video was gruesome.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
5/14…121 percent of 2025 levels
5/13…113
5/12…81
5/11…101
5/10…122
5/9…77
5/8…94
5/7…118
—EBay’s board rejected GameStop’s unsolicited $56 billion takeover proposal.
GameStop last week made an audacious bid for the big e-commerce platform, which is several times its size. But a rollout led by GameStop’s “meme-stock king” CEO, Ryan Cohen, appeared to fizzle.
“We have concluded your proposal is neither credible nor attractive,” eBay’s board wrote in a letter to Cohen released Tuesday. It cited uncertainty regarding GameStop’s proposal including financing and operational risks of a combined operation.
GameStop had offered $125 a share in cash and stock for each eBay share. EBay shares had been trading closer to $104 before the offer was publicized, giving the company a market value of around $45 billion. GameStop’s market value is around $11 billion.
GameStop CEO Cohen is not real likeable and an interview he did with CNBC on the proposed deal did him no good.
—Inspire Brands, the owner of Dunkin’ and other restaurant chains, said Friday that it has confidentially filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission to prepare for a potential stock market listing.
Details are missing, has to how many shares it plans to sell or what price range it will target, but Inspire plans to use money raised from the IPO mainly to pay down debt and cover fees related to the offering.
Dunkin’ has been publicly traded more than once – and taken private more than once too – as the brand lived through multiple Wall Street cycles of enthusiasm, disappointment, and reinvention.
—McDonald’s is officially ending a decades-old fast food tradition by phasing out its self-service fountain machines in U.S. dining rooms. It’s targeting a completion date of 2032.
Beyond streamlining operations, the move allows McDonald’s to better control beverage portions, improve restaurant cleanliness, and eliminate the high maintenance and repair costs associated with customer-facing machines.
McDonald’s CFO Ian Borden told Yahoo Finance it “probably” will continue to offer free refills.
Rival Burger King, which is on a roll, having delivered a 5.8% same-store sales increase in the first quarter, said it does not plan to change its Coca-Cola Freestyle machine that allows a diner to concoct almost an endless array of flavored sodas and non-carbonated beverages.
BK is kicking butt with its new Whopper varieties.
—Speaking of beef and burgers, the Trump administration is opening the way to import more steaks and ground beef from overseas, part of a broader effort to address record-high beef prices.
The plan is to temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports, suspending the annual tariff-rate quota – which applies a higher tariff rate after a certain level of beef imports are reached – on all beef-exporting nations, enabling more of the product to enter the U.S. at lower tariff rates.
The administration also plans to direct the Small Business Administration to increase loans and access to capital for U.S. ranchers, and to reduce protections for gray and Mexican wolves under the Endangered Species Act, a focus of rancher complaints.
A White House official said the tariff decision aims to address short-term supply issues with beef in the U.S., while the deregulatory efforts will help lower ranchers’ costs over time.
The pair of executive orders aims to tackle one of the most persistent sources of inflation for U.S. consumers. While prices over the past year and a half have eased for eggs, milk and other products, beef has continued to rise. Ground beef prices are up 48% from five years ago.
Livestock prices have surged in the U.S. over the past few years, after cattlemen reduced the size of their herds to the lowest level in 75 years, according to the Agriculture Department. Consumer demand for beef has stayed strong, though, helping drive up prices at your supermarket.
But opening the way for more imports risks angering a key political constituency for Trump…cattle ranchers, who opposed the administration’s move to enable more beef imports from Argentina.
Ranchers began shrinking their herds after livestock prices tumbled during the pandemic, and drought scorched grazing lands. Ranchers – who are making more money than ever before – have been reluctant to rebuild their herds, a process that can take years.
Foreign Affairs, continued….
Russia/Ukraine: Vladimir Putin used his annual Victory Day speech in Moscow’s Red Square to justify his war in Ukraine and denounce NATO.
Speaking in front of hundreds of military personnel and flanked by a few world leaders, Putin said he was fighting a “just” war and called Ukraine an “aggressive force” that is being “armed and supported by the whole bloc of NATO.”
May 9 is the nation’s biggest national holiday, commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, and while Russia and Ukraine agreed to observe a three-day ceasefire, announced by President Trump last Friday, for the first time in nearly two decades, no military hardware featured in the parade.
Addressing the crowd, Putin started his speech by commemorating the sacrifices of USSR soldiers during World War II.
“The great feat of the generation of victors inspires the soldiers carrying out the goals of the special military today,” he said, referring to the war in Ukraine.
“They are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the whole bloc of NATO. And despite this, our heroes move forward.”
“Victory has always been and will always be ours,” Putin told the crowd, using the celebration to draw his now-familiar – and historically false – parallel between the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany and his invasion of Ukraine.
Putin went on to celebrate the citizens of Russia, making reference to the contributions of workers to its war effort, including scientists, inventors, military correspondents, doctors and teachers.
“No matter how military tactics change, the future of the country is being provided for by the people,” he said.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko was sitting by Putin, but markedly fewer world leaders turned up compared to last year’s 80th anniversary parade, which included China’s President Xi and Brazil’s Lula da Silva.
Russian TV viewers were also shown a broadcast of soldiers on the front lines after Putin’s speech.
After the parade, Putin, speaking to reporters, said, “I think that the matter is coming to an end,” referring to the war in Ukraine.
Victory, to state the obvious, has been elusive for Russia.
When asked about Ukrainian President Zelensky, Putin said a meeting was possible only once a lasting peace deal was agreed.
Russia then accused Kyiv of breaking a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on Sunday, while Ukrainian officials said that one person had been killed and more injured by Russian drone and artillery strikes in the past 24 hours.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense accused Kyiv of committing more than 1,000 ceasefire violations, state media reported, citing a daily briefing on Sunday.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on Sunday he expects U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to visit Moscow “soon enough.”
However, he stressed that Moscow would not move from its demand that Kyiv’s troops withdraw from Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. “Until (Ukraine) takes that step, we can hold several more rounds, dozens of rounds (of negotiations). But we’ll be stuck in the same place,” Ushakov was cited by the state news agency Tass as saying.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Vladimir Putin held a subdued Victory Day parade on Saturday in Moscow, with fewer missiles and other weapons that are an annual boast about Russia’s military power. If it’s true that Mr. Putin feared a long-range Ukrainian drone strike, it’s one more sign that the tide may be turning against Russia after four long years of death.
“ ‘Russian forces are performing worse on the battlefield in Spring 2026 than when the Kremlin emphasized its demand for Donetsk Oblast in 2025,’ the Institute for the Study of War reported on Friday. ISW, which offers the best independent analysis of the war, says Ukraine appears to have regained more territory from Russia’s occupiers than it lost in April.
“Russia has been making grinding progress in Ukraine’s east for months, albeit at great cost in casualties. So it’s significant if Ukrainian forces are reversing the trend. Ukraine’s military says Russia suffered more than 35,000 casualties in April, dead or wounded, which if even close to true is also a growing toll.
“ISW says Ukraine is increasingly able to hit targets deep in Russia with drones and missiles. These include oil production facilities, arms caches and other military assets, as our Jillian Melchior reported Friday. This explains Mr. Putin’s lack of confidence in exposing Russian assets in Red Square.
“The killing continues, though Mr. Putin said this weekend the war ‘is coming to an end.’ We’ll believe that when we see him end his terror bombing of Ukraine’s cities and stop demanding that Kyiv give up more territory that Russia hasn’t been able to seize by force.
“All of this means this is a moment to increase support for Ukraine so it can keep the pressure on Russia. Only the prospect of greater losses and potential defeat will cause Mr. Putin to abandon his imperial ambitions in Ukraine – and in Western Europe. That’s the best way to end the war on honorable terms that secure peace and freedom for Ukraine.”
The Journal editorial was posted about 4:00 PM ET, Sunday.
Russian then launched an attack on Ukraine overnight Monday.
Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on X: “We proposed Moscow to extend the partial ceasefire beyond May 11. Instead, this night Russia launched over 200 drones against Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure, including a kindergarten, injuring at least six and killing at least one person.
Russia then targeted the capital, Kyiv, with a mass drone and missile attack early Thursday morning that killed at least 24 (including three children) and injured 47 people, local authorities said. Bodies were being pulled from a partially destroyed apartment building, where rescuers were still searching for at least 10 more people feared missing, Ukraine’s emergency services DSNS said.
Friday was declared a day of mourning in the city.
Ukraine’s Air Force said its air defenses shot down or jammed 693 targets overnight, including 41 missiles and 652 drones of various types across the country. Fifteen missiles and 23 drones scored direct hits across 24 locations, the Air Force said. Debris from downed drones fell across an additional 18 locations.
The attack, in which Kyiv was the primary target, came hours after a rare daytime mass drone barrage Wednesday. Ukrainian officials said the attack was Russia’s response to President Trump’s rare trip to China to talk to Xi Jinping.
President Zelensky said ballistic and cruise missiles were used in the mass attack. “These are definitely not the actions of those who believe the war is coming to an end,” he said, urging partners not to stay silent and calling for continued support for Ukraine’s air defenses. He said Russia has used more than 1,560 drones against Ukrainian cities and communities since the start of Wednesday, with Kyiv enduring the heaviest losses.
It turned out to be the largest two-day aerial attack of the war. Zelensky said the “priority number one” was to secure more deliveries of “anti-ballistic systems and missiles for them.”
Nothing but crickets from President Trump.
Cuba: After months of a debilitating energy crisis that has caused widespread power outages, Cuba’s oil reserves have run dry, the government said this week, which has been plunging the country into even more frequent, bigger and longer nationwide blackouts.
Cuba has been grappling with a severe energy crisis for more than two years because of crumbling infrastructure and a dwindling supply from its longtime benefactor Venezuela.
While Cuba produces some oil for domestic use, power plants are down and supplies have been exhausted.
The Trump administration imposed an effective blockade barring all foreign oil from reaching Cuba, which had also received shipments from Mexico.
A delivery of 1000,000 tons of oil from Russia last month permitted by the White House provided a reprieve. But those supplies were quickly exhausted.
Washington and Havana have been engaged in secret negotiations for weeks, and on Thursday, the Cuban government announced that CIA Director John Ratcliffe had visited the island.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 42% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 57% disapprove (May 15).
A new CNN survey shows that 30% of respondents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, with 70% saying they disapprove.
—Most of the political analysis shows Democrats still in the driver’s seat toward winning back control of the House, despite suffering a number of blows, such as in Virginia last Friday, with at least three GOP-controlled Southern states scrambling to redraw their midterm maps.
Democrats have led in the generic congressional ballot for months, and their lead has gotten somewhat more comfortable recently. They currently lead Republicans in the Decision Desk HQ polling average by more than 5 points, a slight drop from the 6-point lead they had a week earlier.
An analysis from the New York Times found Democrats would need to win the popular vote by at least 2.5 points in November to win a House majority. If the Southern states of Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina go forward with redrawing their congressional lines to eliminate Democratic-held seats, that would increase to 3.9 points. [South Carolina Republicans have resisted redrawing the map thus far. The lone Democratic rep in the state is Jim Clyburn.]
The median district likely to determine the House majority is currently rated a toss-up in Cook Political Report’s breakdown of the contests.
Cook favors Democrats to win 208 seats and Republicans to take 209 seats, while 18 seats are rated toss-ups.
But Republicans are defending more seats considered toss-ups than their opponents are, and polling suggests Democrats could score upsets in some lean-red races.
The Supreme Court on Monday then handed Alabama Republicans a major win in their effort to impose a more favorable House map.
Over the dissent of the court’s three liberal justices, the court lifted a ruling that had blocked state Republicans’ preferred map as racially discriminatory and for illegally diluting the voting power of Black Alabamans.
—Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces the biggest test of his political career on Saturday in the state Republican primary, squaring off against two opponents, one of whom is endorsed by President Trump, Cassidy having voted to impeach the president after the events of Jan. 6, 2021.
—My congressman, Republican Tom Kean Jr., has now been away from Washington for over two months with no clear return date from what staffers say is a personal medical matter and a competitive re-election race looming.
Kean’s office confirmed he would again miss House votes this week due to the undisclosed health issue that even House Speaker Mike Johnson has no clue on when asked about the absence.
My district, the 7th, already was one of the most closely watched in this year’s midterms and is critical to Republican efforts to hold the House.
—In an opinion piece for the Washington Post, Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman said that he hasn’t “changed” since winning over a long-held Pennsylvania Senate seat in 2022 – while acknowledging that he is frequently “at odds” with his Democratic colleagues.
Fetterman framed himself as “increasingly lonely” in how he serves, saying he represents all Pennsylvanians, even though he is a Democrat. But he went on to conclude: “I’d be a terrible Republican.”
“My values have not changed, and I have always turned to those kinds of ideals that defined being a Democrat,” wrote Fetterman. “I remain strongly pro-choice, pro-weed, pro-LGBT, pro-SNAP, pro-labor and even pro-rib-eye over bio slop. I refuse to cave on my conscience because Pennsylvania deserves someone who is honest and can work across the aisle.”
Fetterman argued that his party cannot solely be “the opposite of whatever President Donald Trump says” – adding that Democrats would even “hate” the president if he came out in support of ice cream and lazy Sundays.
He also maintained that Democrats have changed their views on securing the border, shutting down the federal government and supporting U.S. allies like Israel – areas where he has broken from the general consensus of his party since he took office.
“These once-common views have become increasingly toxic in the Democratic Party, a result of catering to the fringe and agitated parts of our base,” Fetterman said. “The party is fractured by their demands, heightened after the Gaza war and even more after Trump was elected in 2024.”
His remarks follow a report from Politico earlier indicating that President Trump and the GOP have engaged in a quiet effort to flip Fetterman’s political affiliation to red.
—President Trump sent a series of posts out on Mother’s Day afternoon and evening, including one which read in part:
“During my Historic Election in 2024, when I won every single Swing State, and decisively won both the Electoral and Popular votes by wide margins, the Republicans had an Election Integrity Army in every single State to preserve the sanctity of each local vote. We will be doing the same again in 2026, but it will be much bigger and stronger. All Americans should have their voices be heard by casting a vote. Be assured this Election will be fair!”
And there was a long rant that began:
“ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES MUST BUY AMERICAN – NO EXCUSES! For decades, Washington politicians sent your Taxpayer Dollars overseas, and let Foreign Countries rip us off while our Workers, Factories, and Supply Chains were left behind. That betrayal is OVER.”
And….
“I ‘Love’ Justice Neil Gorsuch! He’s a really smart and good man, but he voted against me, and our Country, on Tariffs, a devastating move. How do I reconcile this? So bad, and hurtful to our Country. I have, likewise, always liked and respected Amy Coney Barrett, but the same thing with her. They were appointed by me, and yet have hurt our Country so badly!… With certain Republican Nominated Justices that we have on the Supreme Court, the Democrats don’t really need to ‘PACK THE COURT’ any longer. In fact, I should be the one wanting to PACK THE COURT! I’m working so hard to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and then people that I appointed have shown so little respect to our Country, and its people… I don’t want loyalty, but I do want and expect it for our Country.”
The president was setting the stage for a “ruling against us on Birthright Citizenship.”
—Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Marty Makary is leaving his role, President Trump told reporters Tuesday, after Makary had battled officials in the health department and the White House on a range of policy issues.
Makary, an author and former Johns Hopkins surgeon who became a highly visible champion for the Make America Healthy Again movement, for months was seen by other administration officials as struggling to manage his agency.
—The respiratory virus that caused a deadly outbreak on the Hondius cruise ship is showing no sign of mutating to become more contagious, even though more cases among former passengers could be arising for a few more weeks, said experts from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
The hantavirus’ genome has been sequenced and it’s similar to the one that caused outbreaks in South America in the past, said Andreas Hoefer, the center’s expert on microbiology and molecular epidemiology.
Italy on Wednesday said that a 25-year-old man who was placed in isolation had tested negative for hantavirus, easing concerns about transmission on a flight that briefly hosted an infected Dutch woman.
A former Hondius passenger in France is still in intensive care.
In the U.S., officials are monitoring 16 additional people across the country for symptoms of hantavirus whom the CDC has not previously mentioned, the agency said on Thursday.
The new people the CDC reported were not on the cruise ship but were passengers on an April 25 flight to Johannesburg and exposed to someone known to have been infected.
The new total of those being monitored in the United States is 41, a significant increase over the 18 passengers from the Dutch cruise ship who were brought back to the U.S. on Monday. They are quarantining at special facilities in Omaha and Atlanta.
But as of yesterday, there were no confirmed cases in the United States.
—South Carolina’s top court on Wednesday undid the murder conviction against Alex Murdaugh, the lawyer a jury had found guilty of murdering his wife and one of his sons in a trial that captivated the country, to the point that even yours truly, who normally isn’t into such matters, was fascinated by it because Murdaugh is such an unlikeable guy.
In a unanimous opinion, the State Supreme Court said that “shocking jury interference” by a court clerk who oversaw jurors during the 2023 trial meant that Murdaugh’s conviction must be overturned.
South Carolina’s attorney general vowed to retry him.
But Murdaugh will remain in prison for some time regardless because he also had pleaded guilty to various charges related to stealing millions of dollars from his law firm and his former clients. While he had admitted to embezzlement, he has long maintained – including during testimony at his trial – that he did not kill his wife, Maggie, 52, and his younger son, Paul, 22.
—Before last week’s big storm in the Rockies that brought significant late-season snow, the snowpack that feeds the Colorado River was the lowest on record, according to the National Water and Climate Center. Most streams in the basin were forecast to produce less than 30 percent of their average runoff.
In the absence of a broader agreement on how to manage the shortfall, Lower Basin states feared the dwindling flows could cause the federal government to institute unilateral cuts. Because water in the Colorado is allocated according to a “first come, first severed” system, junior rights holders – including major Arizona cities Phoenix and Tucson – could lose a significant fraction of their water supply.
—There is growing concern we could have a strong El Nino this summer, which raises fears of additional heat, including marine heat waves, piling on top of long-term climate warming given its expected arrival at a time when temperatures already have been warmer than normal in much of the West and over parts of the Pacific for months.
While one consequence of El Nino is reduced hurricane activity in the main region of the Atlantic where hurricanes often form, the National Hurricane Center and others warn that storms, even major devastating hurricanes, can and do occur in El Nino years, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico (America).
There is also great concern for an increased threat of hurricanes in the Pacific, which aside from the dangers for Hawaii, California and the desert Southwest could see flooding rains, in the case of the latter the aftermath of hurricanes hitting Mexico, with effects in Arizona and New Mexico.
Otherwise, El Ninos have fueled wildfires and caused megadroughts.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4550…Silver $76.40…wild week, hit $88.
Oil $105.60
Bitcoin: $79,120 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $4.52; Diesel: $5.66 [$3.19 – $3.54 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 5/11-5/15
Dow Jones -0.2% [49526]
S&P 500 +0.1% [7408]
S&P MidCap -2.4%
Russell 2000 -2.4%
Nasdaq -0.1% [26225]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-5/15/26
Dow Jones +3.0%
S&P 500 +8.2%
S&P MidCap +9.2%
Russell 2000 +12.5%
Nasdaq +12.8%
Hang in there.
*FYI…I was just informed by the company hosting my site that we may be down for a few hours early Tues. AM due to maintenance. These guys have been great for me, Liquid Web. Totally recommend them.
Brian Trumbore
