Monday, June 15, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., June 15…reg. $4.06…diesel $5.19
‘Regular’ is now down 50 cents from the highs; diesel 49 cents.
President Trump on Truth Social, 5:29 PM Sunday:
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free [sic] opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
The temporary, provisional agreement is to signed Friday in Geneva, and the memorandum of understanding (MOU) would leave a narrow window of 60 days to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program.
The announcement came after hours of tension over Israel’s early Sunday strike on Lebanon, which threatened to stall talks. Trump criticized Isael for the strikes on Beirut, urging it not to “blow it.”
The text of the MOU has yet to be released, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the terms for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program would be finalized in the 60 days after the initial agreement is signed and that the parties could decide to extend that period.
Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the Iranian closure of the Strait would continue until the agreement is officially signed. Gharibabadi also said the text would be released upon signing in Switzerland.
As in there remain lots of questions, but for now, the markets reacted with enthusiasm. The market is a discounting mechanism, and it’s looking ahead to an oil market with plentiful supply (and low prices) like we had prior to the events of Feb. 28.
Crude oil plunged to around $80 per barrel, touching a two-month low. Gasoline futures declined to $2.90, before bouncing back some, the lowest since April 17.
I said weeks ago, when gas futures were hitting $3.75, that if we were to see the nationwide average at the pump get back below $4.00, we needed gas futures to get below $3.00 and stay there awhile and here we are. We’ll be under $4.00 soon, and that’s a huge psychological barrier for American consumers and, politically, the Republicans as the midterms loom.
Aside from stocks and bonds’ reactions this week to the Iran deal, it’s also about Kevin Warsh’s first meeting at the helm of the Federal Reserve, where we know one thing…there will be no change in the key funds rate. There will be some dissents in the policy statement released Wednesday.
It will be interesting to see if Warsh, no fan of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP, or dot plot), decides not to list his dots to express his opposition to so-called forward guidance.
And we’ll see how he treats the press conference, as he’s expected to opt to hold fewer of them in the future, and to encourage other Fed governors not to talk so much.
Here in the New York area, us Knicks fans (and Knicks fans all over the country) are still on Cloud Nine, after clinching our first NBA title in 53 years. I’m old…like really old…so I vividly remember the 1969-70, and 1972-73 Knick championships. And then we had a long, long drought.
Thank you Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Coach Mike Brown, team president Leon Rose, and all the others who made this possible.
A lot of us now can’t wait until the opening home game of the new season next fall when the team will receive their rings. That will be cool.
But first Thursday’s parade, which promises to be nuts.
—
Dow Jones +468…+0.9% [51671…record]
S&P 500 +122…+1.7% [7554]
Nasdaq +795…+3.1% [26683]
Oil (WTI) $81.40…Brent $83.75
Gold $4320
Silver $70.10
Bitcoin $66,560 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.06%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.46%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.56%
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
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