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Edition 1,417
The scrapping of plans for U.S. and Iranian negotiators to meet in Switzerland on Friday created new uncertainty about the timing of talks that seek to turn a thin/weak memorandum of understanding (MOU) into a permanent peace deal.
Talks were complicated by an escalation of fighting in Lebanon, where Israel launched new attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, killing at least 47, according to Lebanese authorities, while the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said four of its soldiers were killed in one of the Iran-backed group’s deadliest attacks of the war.
But the two sides later Friday agreed to renew their ceasefire. Iran said they will try to reorganize talks with the U.S.
President Trump has been flailing this week.
On Truth Social, Friday, 8:33 AM:
“The War has diminished Iran! It doesn’t, any longer, have an Air Force, a Navy, Antiaircraft Equipment, Radar, or practically anything else, and yet the Dumocrats say that Iran is better off now than it was four months ago. Can you imagine getting away with that??? How stupid can some people be??? President DJT”
Friday, 8:37 AM:
“We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!”
Monday at the G-7 summit, Trump, sitting alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, said, “We get along very well with Iran,” and that the second stage of the negotiations “will be easier.”
But Iran is being allowed to keep its ballistic missile program, there was nothing in the MOU about Tehran’s support of proxies, and there has been no regime change.
Now, assuming talks are reestablished, it’s supposed to be about the disposition of the nuclear program. Iran will make it about its frozen assets.
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, June 19…$77.40
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, June 19…regular $3.97; diesel $5.09
The price of diesel is still a killer for commercial businesses.
As the war in Iran went down…day by day….
The United States and Iran needed more than two months of fitful, strained negotiations to agree on a deal to halt their fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but a provisional agreement, memorandum of understanding (hereafter MOU) was announced by the two sides on Sunday night.
Once signed, reportedly Friday in Geneva, it leaves a narrow window of 60 days to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program,
President Trump on Truth Social, 5:29 PM Sunday:
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
Trump on Truth Social, 6:27 PM:
“This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!”
It was Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif who later announced the deal was reached.
The announcement came after hours of tension over Israel’s early Sunday strike on Lebanon, which threatened to stall talks. Trump criticized Israel for the strikes on Beirut, urging it not to “blow it.”
Trump on Truth Social, 10:46 AM:
“This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran. Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to was very small and meaningless, nobody was hurt, injured, or killed, and should not disrupt this important process. We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down. There should be no more attacks by any party, including Hezbollah, against Israel. This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace – Let’s not blow it!”
The president told Axios that he was “pissed off” at Netanyahu for striking Lebanon.
“Why did Bibi have to do a f—ing attack?” Trump told Axios in a phone interview. “I was so pissed off, I let him know. He has no f—ing judgment. I let him know that.”
The text of the MOU wasn’t available as of late Sunday, despite the announcements by Pakistani negotiators and Trump. Sharif said mediators would facilitate a series of meetings this week to lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.
The deal was to be signed Sunday, but Trump deferred to the White House on timing. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told ABC’s “This Week” that Iran’s negotiators were having a tough time getting guidance from their Supreme Leader.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said once a deal is reached the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could end. But he also told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that the blockade could snap back quickly if need be.
As for the reaction from Iranian officials, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday the terms of dealing with Iran’s nuclear program would be finalized in the 60 days after the initial agreement is signed and that the parties could decide to extend that period.
Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the Iranian closure of the Strait would continue until the agreement is officially signed.
Three regional officials told the AP the emerging deal was expected to include the phased lifting of sanctions on Iran and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
Needless to say, the oil markets reacted with enthusiasm to an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil and gas flows – but that return to normality could be months away…or it might be sooner than many of us have saying the past few months. Real damage was done to the Gulf states’ energy infrastructure. On the other hand, in terms of delivering what’s been stored, they have feverishly been trying to find alternative routes.
Shippers, however, remained cautious as they awaited details.
Skeptics, at least Monday, argue it may end up being nothing more than a temporary reprieve given it’s not clear either side is ready to compromise on the thorniest issues – how much economic relief to give Iran, what to do about its nuclear program and how to address its ballistic missile program.
“It’s not implausible they could have a temporary deal to reopen the Strait,” said Michael O’Hanlon, director at the Brookings Institution. “Beyond that, a comprehensive deal is not plausible now.”
One thing is clear. After decades of efforts to cajole and coerce Iran into giving up its nuclear ambitions, it’s that there are no guarantees, no matter what the U.S. believes is secured in the MOU.
And Iran has the North Korea example. They now have nukes, and no one is talking anymore about taking them away; Kim Jong Un, instead, looking to rapidly expand his force.
Plus, there is Israel.
This was always a three-party war. If Israel began new operations in Lebanon, Iran could decide to close the Strait again and again jeopardize the global economy.
The frustration in Israel was summed up in the main headline of the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot on Sunday, describing the agreement as a “bad deal,” the New York Times reported.
Israeli leaders also repeatedly demanded an end to Tehran’s support for hostile proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.
But critics contend that those objectives are absent from the deal’s framework. And that the agreement does not have enough curbs on Iran’s nuclear program.
Officials are also upset that the deal appears to allow funds to flow back into the coffers of the Iranian government, instead of creating conditions for its collapse.
It’s been reported that the United Arab Emirates has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, four sources said, in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks on the wealthy Gulf Arab state during the war.
Reuters reported the UAE had agreed to release a total of $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered.
“Two other sources with knowledge of the arrangement put the total funds involved at $20 billion, adding that the move had been agreed to in return for a halt to Iranian attacks on the UAE.”
Such a move to release the funds allows Iran to claim it extracted compensation for war damages, while Washington can insist it paid nothing.
Dubai’s banks have long held substantial Iranian-linked deposits, much of them now immobilized under U.S. sanctions that police the global dollar-clearing system and expose any foreign bank dealing with blacklisted Iranian entities to being cut off from the American financial network.
So, President Trump headed to the French Alps Monday to meet with fellow leaders at the Group of Seven summit.
Monday, Trump said the Iran deal had already been signed. Vice President JD Vance, hitting every possible media outlet to sell it, said the MOU was “about a page and a half” and a “very general” document.
Senior U.S. officials said the Strait would re-open on Friday – the same day the deal is formally inked in Geneva.
But the same officials said the MOU would be released by Trump before Friday, and then Trump said the text will be released “sometime after Friday.”
U.S. officials said the MOU had been signed electronically by Trump, Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
As for Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu, in a defiant address to Israelis, suggested on Monday that he did not feel bound by the newly reached cease-fire agreement between the United States and Iran.
“The struggle has not ended,” Netanyahu declared.
Foreshadowing potential trouble for the peace deal, he said he had no intention of withdrawing his forces from neighboring Lebanon – a key demand of the Iranians during negotiations with the United States.
In March, soon after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began, Hezbollah began firing on Israel in a show of solidarity with the Iranians.
Israeli troops then occupied what Netanyahu has called a “security zone” in southern Lebanon. They have also attacked what they say are Hezbollah targets beyond there, bombing in and near Beirut, which recently prompted Iranian strikes on Israel.
Israelis across the political spectrum have made their dismay at the deal clear, and Netanyahu, facing a potentially tough re-election campaign later this year, appeared to be sending them a message on Monday.
“I want to make clear: We will remain in the security zones as long as required in order to defend our country,” he said.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal, Mon. PM
“President Trump is touting his latest cease-fire deal with Iran as peace in our time, but the world is more likely to see it as a strategic retreat short of achieving his war aims. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump is accepting Iran’s promises merely to negotiate over its nuclear program.
“Most of the press has been hostile from the start, but we’ve supported the President’s Iran policy. We’ve done so because a nuclear Iran would be an existential threat, and because we want Presidents to succeed when they go to war.
“Mr. Trump’s willingness to use military force when no one else would has set back Iran’s nuclear program, military and industrial base. The result isn’t ‘Obama deal 2.0’ because, unlike in 2015, Iran’s key nuclear facilities are in rubble and its enrichment of uranium has been halted for the first time in 20 years. The media critics and Democrats who now savage the President would have stood by while a nuclear bomb became a fait accompli, as in North Korea.
“But there’s no denying that Mr. Trump is retreating from his main goals as political pressure has built at home and finishing the job requires greater military risk. Despite Israel’s urging, he never authorized a mission to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. He never tried to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
“Those who say Mr. Trump had no alternative to this retreat ignore that the U.S. blockade was squeezing Iran more by the day, while Iran’s blockade was leaking. Mr. Trump simply didn’t want to endure higher oil prices for longer. This is his choice, not a strategic imperative.
“The new deal extends the cease-fire for another 60 days, though our guess is that it will be renewed, perhaps many times. The U.S. blockade will end, as Iran de-mines the Strait on a timetable so traffic can be unrestricted. This seems to be Mr. Trump’s main goal, which will mean lower gasoline prices before the midterm elections. But Tehran says Hormuz won’t return to the status quo ante, and it claims it will charge ‘fees’ not tolls, as if that’s more than a semantic difference.
“The full memorandum of understanding text hasn’t been released, and Mr. Trump says some of it is ‘a little conceptual.’ Which is the problem. It would defer most matters of the nuclear program to 60 more days of talks, with oil and other sanctions relief along the way in exchange for diplomatic progress.
“This linkage is crucial, but pushing off the most difficult nuclear issues in talks with ‘dishonorable people’ who don’t deal ‘in good faith,’ as the President called them on Friday, doesn’t inspire confidence. If the regime won’t agree to dismantle its nuclear program now, why would it do so after weeks of oil exports and other relief? …
“Meanwhile, allowing oil exports will rescue the regime financially, and resuming sanctions enforcement won’t be easy when Iran can threaten the deal – and the Strait – in reply. Granting the regime access to billions of dollars in frozen funds before nuclear negotiations would be another bailout. Mr. Trump’s talk of investing in Iran suggests he’s making the Barack Obama mistake of thinking the revolutionary regime wants Iran to be a normal country. There’s no evidence it does.
“The deal also includes no Iranian commitments on its missiles and terror proxies. These will be put off to ‘regional discussions’ from which no one expects much. This poses risks to Israel from Hezbollah, which the deal could protect in Lebanon, as well as to the Gulf Arab states that bore the brunt of Iran’s attacks. An irony of this deal is that the Gulf states will need greater U.S. defense commitments if Iran is allowed to rebuild its missile arsenal – or they will make their own accommodations to Iran.
“The biggest risk is if Mr. Trump sees this deal as a de facto partnership with Iran’s regime. Like Mr. Obama, he might overlook violations to strike the final deal or preserve it once it is signed. The people of Iran, whom Mr. Trump promised to help, would be the big losers.
“Iran’s new leaders are likely to conclude that Mr. Trump has no desire for more conflict, and they will negotiate accordingly. Congress should scrutinize any final agreement Mr. Trump makes with Iran – and reject it if it props up a regime that still says ‘death to America.’”
Tuesday, President Trump said that he hoped the war with Iran would soon be in the “rearview mirror.” He described the new Iranian leadership as “very rational,” and promised to release the still-secret terms of the agreement within days. A top Iranian official also called on Iranians to respect the outcome of the talks, an apparent effort to contain hard-line opposition.
The two sides were still set to gather at the lakeside resort of Burgenstock in Switzerland on Friday.
But Iran said that Israel’s forces are supposed to withdraw from Lebanon under the deal, even as Israel said it would not do so. Trump said Israel was being overly aggressive and that “too many people are being killed.”
Bret Stephens / New York Times
“Trump is on his way to betraying Israel, our principal ally in this fight, by pushing Jerusalem to stand down in its effort to stop Hezbollah’s attacks on its north, in that way handing Tehran the victory of creating a diplomatic linkage between Lebanon and Hormuz. If Iran is now allowed to extract some kind of service fee for permitting ships to transit the Strait, Trump will have also betrayed our allies in the Persian Gulf by giving Iran financial and strategic leverage to which it has no right, and which it didn’t previously have.
“The worst betrayal, however, is of Americans who supported the war – not only neocons like me but also most of Trump’s MAGA base – because we believed that Iran, which has waged a 47-year war against us, posed an increasingly intolerable threat to our security and vital interests.
“This cease-fire neither ends nor eases that threat; it hardens and magnifies it. It removes the one point of U.S. leverage over Iran – the naval blockade of its ports – before there’s any negotiation over its nuclear program, which the Iranians will almost surely drag out until Trump is out of office. It reminds the world of the adage that while it can be dangerous to be America’s enemy, it is fatal to be its friend. And it gives Iran’s leaders something even more vital: The confidence that, whatever Trump may threaten, they can withstand the most any American president or Israeli prime minister can throw at them.
“There’s a word for this: debacle. Not because the war, for all its costs or errors of execution, was a mistake. It’s because this pretense of a peace is an act of geopolitical self-harm that will haunt our standing in the world for years to come.”
Tuesday evening, details of the MOU then began to emerge, the MOU leaking out to various sources like Bloomberg, as the text circulated at the G-7.
According to the draft document, the U.S. and its regional partners would create a plan to rehabilitate Iran and allow for its economic development, with financing of at least $300 billion. It is vague on the release of Iran’s frozen assets, saying the U.S. undertakes that those funds “will be released and made fully available” without setting a timeline.
U.S. officials said Iran can only get the benefits of the deal if it meets its commitments. Those include never acquiring a nuclear weapon, neutralizing its enriched material and allowing free navigation in the Strait.
Iran will demand “full assurance regarding effective access” to frozen funds following the official signing of the interim deal, the semi-official Tasnim news agency cited Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati as saying on Tuesday.
President Trump had earlier denied that the U.S. would pay Iran $300 billion.
Many of the president’s biggest supporters are expressing the fear Iran is winning at the negotiating table and setting back joint U.S.-Israeli interests in the process.
At a sprawling 70-minute press conference following the end of the summit, President Trump largely brushed his prior ‘red lines’ aside.
Explaining his decision to agree to an interim peace deal, Trump repeated his insistence that the country would never get a nuclear weapon. Yet he went on to suggest that Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, be allowed to develop ballistic missiles and get access to billions of dollars in frozen funds.
Those three things have been at the center of the debate around how to approach Iran for years, dating back to the 2015 Obama agreement.
Iran hawks including former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley lamented Trump’s new vision.
At the press conference in Evian, France, Trump said there was no reason to fixate on the missile issue. “I mean, they have to have some because other people have some,” he said.
“Missiles aren’t the problem,” Trump told reporters. “They hurt a little location but they don’t blow up the planet.”
On enrichment, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that Iran needs to “walk away from enrichment,” Trump made clear he no longer agreed.
“It’s a little hard when other people have it, other adjoining states have it, and you’re not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that,” Trump said, Rubio standing alongside. “You have to use a little common sense.”
As for the frozen Iranian funds, Trump said, “It’s not our money, it’s their money – and we froze it at a certain point in time. I guess we’re going to have to give it back, you know. If we didn’t give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again.”
This is nuts.
And then Wednesday evening, in Versailles, Trump signed the MOU, electronically, as he was having a dinner with French President Macron. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed it, though Iran did not immediately comment.
U.S. officials say the agreement calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and waive sanctions on the country, immediately allowing Iran to sell its oil freely in a major concession from Washington.
The agreement would open the Strait of Hormuz toll-free for two months and affirm a commitment to Lebanon’s territorial integrity in the face of Israel’s invasion against Hezbollah, according to officials from both countries.
Investors remain optimistic that, one way or another, the Strait will reopen – and that has seen oil prices plummet to below $75 on West Texas Intermediate, the nationwide average price at the pump below $4.00 for the first time since March.
But it’s unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.
At the G-7 meeting, Trump said, “the Strait is going to be open toll-free. And it’s toll-free beyond the 60 days.” But at the press conference later, when pressed on the topic, he acknowledged the extension wasn’t specified in the agreement.
And the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran could prove particularly tough since Congress has “extensive sanctions oversight,” RBC commodity strategist Helima Croft wrote in a research note.
Israel may not fully comply with the terms, which could throw the deal off. Wednesday, Israeli forces carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon, despite renewed criticism from Trump of Israel’s actions in the country.
Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in an interview that aired on state TV that the Strait of Hormuz “will not return to pre-war conditions.”
President Trump on Truth Social, Thurs. 4:32 AM:
“These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just HIT A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are ‘tumbling’ down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
And Thurs., 9:59 AM:
“OIL IS FLOWING, IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON (THE WORLD WILL BE SAFE!), THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!). OUR COUNTRY IS STRONG, SAFE, AND RESPECTED LIKE NEVER BEFORE. ‘YOU’RE WELCOME!’ President DJT”
U.S. Central Command announced Thursday that it had lifted the blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas.
“American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” the command said in a social media post. “All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect.”
Ships carrying stranded oil began making their way out of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while Kuwait said it will start ramping up production, as the peace deal sparked a flurry of activity in the region. Vessels carrying nearly 10 million barrels have either appeared outside the Strait or are sailing through, Bloomberg reported Thursday afternoon, including the first Saudi-owned tankers since the war began.
We then heard from Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for the first time on the negotiations:
“As you have been informed, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the presidents of Iran and the United States of America.
“In the course of reaching this stage, the officials in charge, out of sincere concern and goodwill, made extensive efforts – and of course, it was the American president who, out of desperation, used all kinds of leverage to bring this about.
“I, as a matter of principle, held a different view; however, out of the commitment that the esteemed [Iranian] president – as the head of the Supreme National Security Council – gave to me on his own behalf and on behalf of the other members regarding the safeguarding of the rights of the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front, and his explicit acceptance of that responsibility, I granted my permission.
“He [Pezeshkian] also explicitly stated that if the American side seeks to make excessive demands, they will not submit to them. From this moment on, we – that is, you, the proud nation, and this humble servant – will await the realization of the aforementioned conditions.
“However, it’s self-evident that the in-person negotiations in the future will not mean acceptance of the enemy’s positions. We hope the blessed prayers of our Master (may God hasten his noble reappearance) will bring all kinds of victories & triumphs to honorable Iranian nation.”
Vice President JD Vance, appearing in the White House briefing room Thursday, warned U.S. critics in Israel against “attacking the only powerful ally” it has left. He lashed out at members of the Israeli government, warning them that “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time.”
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), in a statement: “Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.
“Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), chairman of the Senate Armed Service Committee, expressed deep concern over Trump’s deal. In a Thursday afternoon press release, the senator argued that the U.S. should not lift sanctions on Iran, nor should Israel withdraw from Lebanon.
“I believe it would be an error to force Israel to stand down against Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist organization that continues to attack Israel on its northern border,” Wicker wrote in the release. “I also oppose the U.S. lifting any sanctions on Iran, or unfreezing Iranian funds, in exchange for Iran’s mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days.”
Special envoy Steve Witkoff told congressional leadership and members of national security-related committees that the agreement struck with Iran did not include any side deals, but a side letter was drafted between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency extending an invitation to inspect its nuclear sites and begin work on identifying and uncovering the locations of Tehran’s enriched material, which is believed to be buried under rubble.
In an interview with Axios’ Mark Caputo, President Trump shockingly claimed that the MOU with Iran “probably” amounts to unconditional surrender from Tehran.
Back in March, during the early days of Operation Epic Fury, Trump publicly insisted that he would not cut a deal with Iran unless it agreed to an unconditional surrender.
“Well, but really it probably is unconditional surrender,” Trump told Caputo.
Typically, unconditional surrender has meant that the losing side agrees to all demands.
Somehow, getting oil sanctions temporarily waived, key assets unfrozen, $300 billion for reconstruction, an end to the naval blockade, and more, doesn’t seem like surrender terms.
France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, said no UN sanctions can be lifted on Iran without France’s approval, unless it is satisfied that talks on Tehran’s nuclear program meet its expectations, its foreign minister said on Friday.
France is a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council. Barrot said there would be no stability in the region unless U.S. talks with Iran resolved questions around Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for proxies.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“A hallmark of President Trump’s style is that his candor eventually betrays his political motives. And so it has been this week as Mr. Trump explained why he cut a deal with the Iranian regime he once hoped to overthrow.
“ ‘These fools who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are ‘tumbling’ down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid,’ he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.
“Without the deal, ‘the alternative would be a world-wide depression,’ Mr. Trump said at his Wednesday news conference. In so many words the President said the Iranians had him over a barrel – of oil. If he had fought on, the market ‘would go down at levels that nobody ever saw before, maybe except for 1929,’ he said. ‘The one President I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover.’
“There you have it: Mr. Trump was driven by fear of high oil prices and a falling stock market going into the midterm elections….
“All of this strongly suggests the memorandum of understanding was reached from a position of U.S. weakness, not strength. From the deal’s substantial up-front sanctions relief and paucity of corresponding Iranian nuclear commitments, it shows….
“The U.S. had options but Mr. Trump blinked at the risk. Instead, after two months of cease-fire weakness while the public soured and oil reserves declined, the President acknowledged he gave in to Iran’s economic pressure.
“After hearing that, why wouldn’t the Iranians threaten to toll or close the Strait 60 days from now unless the U.S. extends negotiations and concedes even more? This was always the problem with relying on a deal – in essence paying a ransom – to reopen the Strait. Especially when the deal provides for more negotiations rather than Iranian action to dismantle its nuclear program.
“The President’s comments are a gift to the regime, and not the only one. ‘They love their country,’ he said Wednesday of Iran’s new leaders, many of whom were involved in January’s massacre of thousands of protesters. He called them ‘far less radicalized,’ while Vice President JD Vance now speaks of helping ‘pragmatists’ win the argument against ‘hard-liners,’ much as Barack Obama did.
“As. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) reminded the White House on Thursday, ‘The Iranian regime has not renounced its ultimate goal – ‘Death to America, Death to Israel.’ The regime will invest every penny it receives to further that aim.’
“The more hope Messrs. Trump and Vance express in the Iranian regime’s transformation, the more desperate they sound. How else to read their sudden defense of Iran’s missile program, after stopping it had been a declared U.S. war aim? Wishful thinking can’t cover up this deal’s origins in White House fears. As the President himself admits.”
Wall Street and the Economy
On the economic data front, May retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.9%, while industrial production in the month was up just 0.1%.
May housing starts were not good…a 1.177 million annualized pace, well below consensus and the lowest number since May 2020.
But this week it was about the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh, who chaired his first Federal Open Market Committee and, as expected, there was no change in interest rates, the vote 12-0.
The accompanying statement was much shorter than prior ones under former chair Jerome Powell.
“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
In the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP or ‘dot plot’), a significant number of the participants – nine of 19 officials, not all of whom have a vote on the FOMC – projected that at least one rate hike would be warranted by year’s end. There had been none who did so in March. Another eight thought the Fed could hold steady into next year. Only one official projected a cut this year, down from 12 in March.
The SEP included only 18 submissions from the 19 participants, and the missing one was from Warsh, as he said up front in his press conference after, not being a fan of the dots.
The new chairman was then very hawkish in his remarks, and the most inflation (Fed) sensitive 2-year Treasury saw its yield rise 16 basis points to a cycle high of 4.21% that day, Wed. Stocks fell hard, not expecting the tone set by Warsh.
The Chair pushed back on the practice of providing markets with signals on future rate policy, but all signs point to higher interest rates by year-end…not exactly what President Trump wants to see. Warsh was adamant the Fed will achieve its goal of 2% inflation, after five years of not doing so.
He also said: “I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less efficiently when they ask a question, ‘How will the Federal Reserve react to that incoming information?’”
As the Wall Street Journal opined: “The insight, as he added, is that financial markets can offer valuable data to central banks – but not when investors are betting primarily on what the central bank itself will do.
“While mum on future policy, Mr. Warsh laid out his process for Fed reform. These consist of five task forces – on communications, the Fed’s balance sheet, data sources, the effects of productivity changes on jobs and the economy, and the Fed’s inflation framework. These are designed to explore and promote the intellectual refresh the central bank needs….
“Some are interpreting the task forces as a dodge, but that’s a mistake. They’re a signal that Mr. Warsh wants to bring in outside experts to work with Fed insiders to make significant reform. This is disruption of an institution that has lost its way, but with a careful process that can persuade and be durable….
“Mr. Warsh is only at the beginning of his tenure, and many challenges lie ahead. For now, a public weary of years of inflation and too few persuasive answers from the Fed can be reassured that the new Chair knows what he wants to do and what it will take to enhance the central bank’s credibility.”
Next week we get the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth is at 3.0%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.47%.
Europe and Asia
In the eurozone, the annual inflation rate was 3.2% in May, up from 3.0% in April. On core, ex-food and energy, the figure was 2.3% vs. 2.1% the month prior. [Eurostat]
Headline inflation….
Germany 2.7%, France 2.8%, Italy 3.2%, Spain 3.6%, Ireland 3.5%, Netherlands 3.4%.
Industrial production in the EA21 for April was up 0.1%; 0.3% from a year ago.
—In the UK, Andy Burnham won a by-election to become a member of parliament, a necessary requirement for Burnham to now be able to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer as Labour Party leader.
China: The National Bureau of Statistics released key data for the month of May.
Industrial production was up 4.5% year-over-year. Retail sales fell 0.6%. Fixed-asset investment declined 4.1% year-to-date.
The unemployment rate was 5.1%. May house prices fell 3.5% annualized.
It is an ugly set of numbers, with retail sales falling for the first time since the reopening from Covid lockdowns in late 2022. Home prices fell at a quicker pace in May and fixed-asset investment shrank at a deeper-than-expected pace, property investment the main drag in this last category (falling 16.2% Jan.-May vs. a year ago).
Industrial production was a little better than forecast.
Last week I noted the strong export data, so you have this economic imbalance in China, as the domestic consumer’s spending sags under the weight of a housing crisis and a fragile jobs market.
Japan: The May inflation rate was 1.5% annualized, 1.8% ex-food and energy.
But the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter-point to 1 percent – the highest level in 31 years. The BOJ cited inflationary pressures from rising crude oil prices, and the central bank said it would continue raising interest rates while monitoring prices and the broader economy.
While you might say that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz should be a big help in terms of energy prices, economists expect war-related pressures to continue, with lingering supply-chain strains and higher inflation to persist through the end of the year.
That said, the Nikkei stock index closed the week at another record high.
Street Bytes
—Stocks finished higher, again, in the holiday shortened week, with the Dow Jones up 0.7% to 51564, having hit an all-time high of 51999 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 rose 0.9% and Nasdaq 2.4%.
Next week’s earnings report from Micron Technology (MU) could be market moving.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.89% 2-yr. 4.18% 10-yr. 4.45% 30-yr. 4.90%
The 2-year rose 13 basis points on the week after being spooked by Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone.
—The oil market has been helped by the data out of China, which imported 7.8 million barrels a day in May. That is a huge drop from around 11 million barrels a day in recent years, and the lowest level in nearly eight years. Even during the Covid19 pandemic, when China’s economy was largely shut down, crude-oil imports didn’t fall below 8 million barrels a day.
The missing 3 million barrels have taken away a chunk of global demand, keeping oil prices in check.
Analysts and traders, however, differ on just how long China’s import cuts can last – and what would happen if the world’s largest oil importer starts buying more again.
As for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data provider Kpler estimates that roughly 2.5 million barrels a day has reached global markets through the Strait. That is still a fraction of the 15 million barrels a day transiting before the war, but it is a big improvement from just roughly 1 million barrels a day of non-Iranian oil flowing in April, according to Kpler.
I wrote all the above Monday….and as the week went on crude oil plunged to $73 on WTI, before finishing the week at $77.40, as evidence grew the Strait was indeed opening up and returning to some semblance of normality…kind of, sort of.
What also helped was a warning from the International Energy Agency of a looming supply surplus. In its first outlook for 2027, the IEA said global oil supply could rise by 8 million barrels a day while demand grows by only 2 million bpd, creating significant oversupply.
In the near term, the agency said the Iran-U.S. deal should provide an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories or build new strategic reserves.
One thing we know. Asian countries are likely to want to build up far greater inventories than they had before because they were caught off-guard by the extent of the supply shock that quickly developed post-Feb. 28.
—SpaceX’s valuation in its third day of trading, Tuesday, exceeded that of Amazon.
Last year, Amazon posted revenue of $717 billion to SpaceX’s $18.7 billion. But it’s of course all about Elon Musk.
Priced at $135 on Friday, the shares hit $225, Tuesday, before finishing the week at $185, with a market cap back below Amazon’s.
—The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Apple will raise prices to offset rising component costs.
The Journal published an exclusive interview with Tim Cook in which Cook said that “unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable.”
“We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable,” Cook said, according to the report.
The move isn’t that surprising. On the company’s last earnings call in April, Cook said that “beyond the June quarter, we believe memory costs will drive an increasing impact on our business, and we’ll continue to evaluate this.”
Other PC and phone makers have already announced price increases to try to offset the rising costs, but Apple has waited on the sidelines…until now.
—Anthropic suspended its powerful new AI model after U.S. authorities raised security concerns just days following its public release.
In a statement published on its website, Anthropic said it was ordered to suspend foreign nationals from using Claude Fable 5, a program that the company self-described as “too powerful.”
“The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance,” the company wrote.
Anthropic and the Trump administration are involved in a separate ongoing lawsuit over an order to stop government agencies using the company’s AI tools.
Claude Fable 5 is a version of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos, an AI program rivaling competitors OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini.
Anthropic said U.S. national security authorities had not identified specific concerns.
The administration’s decision to halt all foreign use of Anthropic’s most capable AI models was prompted by conversations between Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Researchers at Amazon had used a series of prompts to get Anthropic’s Fable 5 model to provide them with information that could be used to aid cyberattacks and was supposed to be off limits, Jassy told the officials.
White House officials held a meeting to discuss how to respond and security researchers began testing Amazon’s claims. The group decided that the most direct way to address that risk was by preventing foreign governments, companies and individuals from accessing the tool, sources told the Journal.
The talks with Amazon – a big investor in Anthropic that supplies the AI company with chips for data centers, while deploying its best models to identify software vulnerabilities – are a sign of how America’s largest companies and governments are navigating the emerging technology’s novel capabilities.
Administration and Anthropic officials spent hours over the weekend on calls discussing Fable 5.
—A coalition of state attorneys general has opened an investigation into OpenAI, according to people familiar with the matter, the latest in a series of legal actions by states directed at artificial intelligence companies.
OpenAI was served a subpoena last Friday related to a range of its activities and impact on users, including advertising, user engagement and retention, handling of consumer data and health data, activities related to minors and seniors, deep learning models, model sycophancy and company policies, according to the Wall Street Journal, who viewed the subpoena.
In a statement, an OpenAI spokesperson said, “AI is a new and powerful technology, and we work every day to safely bring its benefits to people in a responsible way. We take the concerns raised by state attorneys general seriously and intend to engage constructively with their offices.”
Florida’s attorney general, James Uthmeier, opened a criminal investigation into OpenAI in April over the role its chatbot played in a mass shooting that killed two people at Florida State University last year. The suspect allegedly turned to ChatGPT as a confidant and sounding board to plan the attack, and the chatbot dispensed advice.
Previously, 42 state attorneys general sent a letter to companies including OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, Alphabet’s Google and xAI.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
6/18…110 percent of 2025 levels
6/17…107
6/16…97
6/15…99
6/14…115
6/13…88
6/12…100
6/11…112
—The British government will introduce measures to ban access to social media for all children under the age of 16, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday, after weeks that saw the nation debate how it would introduce new protections for children online.
He said the government planned to pass new regulations in Parliament before Christmas and bring a ban into force in the early part of 2027, saying, “The safety of our children must come first.” The measures will also include restrictions on gaming platforms and livestreaming apps.
“I am not prepared to compromise on the safety and happiness of our children, and that is why this ban must happen,” Starmer said at a news conference.
The government has faced growing pressure to act on the issue, as public opinion has coalesced around the idea that more should be done to keep children safe online. One YouGov poll in December found that 74 percent of Britons surveyed supported a ban on social media for children under 16, as awareness about potential harms has grown.
But measures like this are hard to regulate, and hard to enforce.
—JBS, the world’s largest meat-processing company, said that it will close its beef-processing plant in Souderton, Pennsylvania, and a value-added facility in Memphis, Tenn. The company said production from the facilities will be shifted to other plants in its network.
Fewer cows can lead to fewer jobs, and America’s cattle crisis is pushing meatpackers to shut plants, cut shifts, and rethink how much processing capacity the industry actually needs.
The U.S. herd has fallen to its lowest level in seven decades after years of drought and elevated feed costs, pushing cattle prices to record levels.
Which can further drive up operating costs for ranchers and discourage them from rebuilding herds in meaningful numbers. That means meat processors will likely remain caught between high livestock costs, low cattle supplies, and underused plants.
—Fox Corp., the parent company of Fox News and the Fox broadcast network, is buying the streaming company Roku for $22 billion, a major deal that would make the Murdock media empire a formidable competitor in the streaming wars.
The cash-and-stock deal, if approved, would be the biggest bet so far for Lachlan Murdoch, the media scion who took over for his father, Rupert Murdoch, in a succession drama that culminated in September after a legal battle with his siblings. It would give Fox Corp. a foothold in more than 100 million households that stream content using devices powered by Roku.
The younger Murdoch has for years been orchestrating a series of moves to position the company to reach customers who are abandoning traditional TV.
He has pushed Fox to catch up to competitors like Netflix and Amazon, which have already built major advertising businesses on a streaming platform. In 2020, Fox acquired Tubi, a fast-growing free streaming service, for $440 million. Last year, the company launched Fox One, a streaming service that combined content from Fox News and the company’s other TV networks in a single app.
—Stephen Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day” led the domestic box office with $44 million and the global box office with $92.9 million last weekend. The film was competing with live sporting events, such as the Knicks-Spurs game Saturday, World Cup action and Sunday’s UFC spectacular at the White House.
This was the best opening for an original Spielberg film he directed in over 20 years.
“Jurassic Park” sold $50.2 million domestically in its opening weekend in June 1993, but went on to gross more than $924.1 million worldwide.
For Hollywood, domestic box office sales of $4.17 billion so far this year are about 13% ahead of this point last year, and the summer box office since May 1 is outpacing last summer by an estimated 11%.
Lionsgate’s “Michael,” about the King of Pop Michael Jackson, is up to $932.2 million globally.
Next up, Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5,” opening Friday, which is expected to set a franchise-high record.
–Back to the above-mentioned Knicks-Spurs Game 5 Saturday, the television ratings were ginormous, with an average of 24.5 million viewers, peaking at 33 million at 11:15 PM ET, marking the most-watched NBA Finals Game 5 since 1998.
The NBA also saw its most-watched postseason in 28 years across ABC/ESPN, Amazon Prime Video and NBC/Peacock.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Last Friday, Vladimir Putin was forced to halt his annual Russia Day showcase in Moscow’s Red Square for the first time in 23 years, after a Ukrainian attack battered key energy targets and sparked massive fires on Russian soil.
Kyiv launched drone strikes overnight into Friday on critical Russian energy and transportation points, including the Armiansk Bridge, which connects occupied Crimea with the motherland.
The bombing of the bridge “completely paralyzed” a key logistical route and destroyed about 50 vehicles carrying fuel and ammunition, according to Ukraine’s military.
Other targets included a petrochemical plant in Samara, an oil refinery in Tatarstan and a surface-to-air missile system in the Kursk region near the Ukrainian border.
In addition, Ukrainian drones slammed the Bryansk border region killing two people and wounding 10 others, according to Acting Regional Gov. Yegor Kovalchuk.
The cancellations in Moscow came weeks after Putin scrapped the traditional display of military hardware during Moscow’s Victory Day Parade.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted that recent longer-range attacks by Ukraine, which have started to turn the tide in the war, were efficiently disrupting supply chains to nearby regions like Crimea.
“The long-range strike campaign is therefore reducing Russia’s production capacity, while the midrange strike campaign is hurting Russia’s ability to transport the gasoline Russia is still able to produce,” the group said.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov admitted that Crimea is facing a massive fuel shortage and that “measures were being taken” to rectify the situation.
Internet outages across Russia have affected cities since last summer, hitting a country that until recently had one of the world’s highest rates of online usage and was deeply dependent on electronic payments.
This spring, the blackouts finally reached Moscow, home to roughly 10 percent of the country’s population.
Behind the outages, according to various officials and businessmen, is a transfer of power inside the Russian state as the FSB, the successor agency to the Soviet-era KGB, takes charge in deciding when and to whom to grant internet access.
—Monday, at least 10 people were killed in a wave of Russian strikes on Ukraine, with a major religious landmark in Kyiv catching fire.
Five were killed in the attacks on Kyiv, while five rescue workers died trying to put out a fire caused by a strike on the northeastern city of Kharkiv, officials said.
The 11th century Dormition Cathedral was significantly damaged in what Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko called a “brutal assault on our people and our heritage.”
Drone and missile strikes set fire to buildings and cars and left more than 140,000 people in Ukraine’s capital without electricity, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
The Dormition Cathedral is part of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, an architectural ensemble of monastic buildings declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
“This is how Russia shows the world its intention to continue the war,” President Zelensky said in post on X.
“It is very important that there be a response from the G7 countries…and that this response be decisive and substantive; more pressure on the aggressor and more support for Ukraine’s air defense, especially anti-ballistic capabilities,” he said.
Arriving in France Monday, President Trump said he had a good conversation with Zelensky and Putin. “Now that this (Iran) is finished, we’re going to be focusing on that,” he said.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian drone attack in the Russian city of Tula, south of Moscow, killed three people and wounded three others, officials said.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Vladimir Putin poses to America’s more credulous conservatives as a defender of Christianity amid Western decadence. Behold Russia’s strike Monday on the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, a sacred site for Orthodox Christians.
“Built in the 11th century, the Lavra monastery is Kyiv’s equivalent of St. Patrick’s in New York City or Notre Dame in Paris. Overnight on Sunday Russia conducted a missile and drone attack that killed at least five and injured 29 in Kyiv. The sanctuary of the Lavra’s Assumption Cathedral sustained a direct hit. A later strike nearby caused further damage to the Lavra.
“Russia’s Foreign Ministry denied responsibility and claimed a U.S.-provided Patriot had hit the Lavra. But Ivan Verbytskyi, Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Culture, told us Monday that all evidence points to ‘a direct hit by a drone on the cathedral.’ He says the initial strike was ‘not collateral damage.’
“Russia has long coveted the Lavra, and it accused Ukraine of carrying out religious persecution when Kyiv declined to renew a lease there for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which has historically operated as a subordinate branch of the Kremlin-linked Russian Orthodox Church. Yet note which party is bombing churches and targeting Christians.
“In occupied portions of Ukraine, the Russians have confiscated church property, tortured clergy and otherwise persecuted Protestants, Catholics and Orthodox believers who won’t bend their knees to Moscow. Mission Eurasia, an American evangelical nonprofit that monitors religious freedom, reports that since 2022 the Russians have damaged or destroyed more than 730 religious buildings in Ukraine.
“Russia’s large-scale attacks against Kyiv are also an air-defense alarm for the West. A source close to Ukraine’s F-16 fighter program tells us that Ukrainian pilots have downed more than 2,000 Russian cruise missiles and drones, and Kyiv has also pioneered the use of low-cost drone interceptors. But Ukraine relies on Patriots to counter Russian ballistic missiles, and supplies are running low.
“Russia may now be making as many as 70 Iskander-M ballistic missiles a month, while the U.S. produces some 50 PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missiles, the Institute for the Study of War reports. That’s not enough.”
—Thursday, Ukrainian drones hammered a refinery in Moscow and disrupted local air traffic, in what appeared to be the largest such attack on the city since the war started.
Russian missile defenses shot down at least 194 drones that were flying toward Moscow in several waves on Thursday morning, Sergei Sobyanin, the city’s mayor, said in a statement.
The assault on the capital was part of a broader drone attack across Russia on Thursday, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying that it had stopped 992 drones countrywide.
At least 17 were injured in the Moscow region. All of Moscow’s four airports were shut down for most of the morning before gradually reopening.
Video then emerged and the attack on the refinery was rather spectacular*. Residents began complaining of specks of black oil raining down on the area around the refinery.
City officials warned residents of the affected district to keep their windows closed and said families with children, elderly people and asthmatics should urgently leave the area.
*The independent Moscow Times is reporting that an analysis of the video appears to show a Russian air defense missile misfired and hit one of the fuel storage tanks (the blast where you see the giant lid soaring into the air). The paper claims many of Russia’s air defense rockets are misfiring.
President Zelensky said the drone strike was an answer to recent Russian attacks on Kyiv.
“We don’t want this war and have never wanted it,” Zelensky said. “But if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too.”
In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said strikes on Ukraine would be delivered “on a mass scale,” adding he had been “convinced for a long time that words are not enough.”
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 44% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 55% disapprove (June 19). Split was 41-57 last week.
A new AP-NORC poll has Trump’s approval rating at 37%, unchanged from May.
—Georgia Republicans gave President Trump a split decision Tuesday, selecting the president’s endorsed candidate as the state’s Senate nominee but rebuffing his choice for governor.
In the Senate runoff, Rep. Mike Collins defeated former football coach Derek Dooley, a recruit of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. He will face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November in a race crucial to determining which party controls the chamber.
Republicans, who hold a narrow 53-seat majority, have long viewed Georgia as an opportunity to pick up a seat, given that Trump won the state in 2024.
In the GOP gubernatorial runoff, billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson defeated Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, dealing a blow to Trump and Kemp, who had both endorsed Jones.
Separately in Georgia, Republican leaders in the State Legislature said they would not take up redistricting during a special session that had been set up to start Wednesday – and that had been called expressly to erase U.S. House seats in majority-Black districts.
Georgia was to be the latest Southern state to consider redistricting after a recent Supreme Court ruling that weakened Voting Rights Act protections for Black representation.
—An Alaskan election official determined Monday that a candidate with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is ineligible to appear on the ballot.
“On review of the complaints and other information in the Division’s possession, I conclude that your declaration of candidacy was not properly filed with the Division because it was not filed in order to declare an actual good-faith candidacy for the office of United States Senator, but was instead filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballot’s fairness or neutrality,” Carol Beecher, director of the Governor’s Division of Elections, wrote in a Monday letter to the candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee urged state officials to investigate similarities to the incumbent Sullivan’s campaign in a 25-page letter to Beecher sent earlier this month.
Beecher said her investigation found concerns with the new candidate’s recent switch to the Republican Party, his campaign website’s similarity to the incumbent senator and his ties to a political consultant associated with a Democratic challenger to the senator as reasons to deny his candidacy.
—Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), my congressman, finally set a return date. Kean’s last vote in the House was March 5.
“Congressman Kean is eager to return to in-person work on June 30 and resume a full schedule,” Harrison Nealy, a longtime aide, said Thursday.
It’s still not clear what has kept Kean out of work for 105 days. Kean and his staff have repeatedly said only that he is dealing with a personal health issue and that he would be back “soon.” Kean has said he would reveal his ailment.
As I’ve written in the past, New Jersey’s 7th District is up for grabs as Kean is still running for re-election. This will be a critical race nationwide.
—President Trump threw a last-minute wrench into the Senate’s plans to quickly confirm a new intelligence chief and renew a critical spying law, while also insisting neither would proceed until Congress passes a contentious GOP voter-ID bill.
Trump said early Wednesday that he was delaying the nomination of Jay Clayton to be the next director of national intelligence. Clayton’s confirmation hearing was set to take place later in the day, with a vote on the floor as soon as later this week, but Trump said he was stopping the nomination until Clayton’s successor for his current job is approved.
Trump also said he wouldn’t sign legislation to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act until Congress passes voter-eligibility legislation that he has long made a priority. The voting bill doesn’t have the 60 votes required to advance in the Senate and has sparked public disagreements between Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.)
Trump’s decision to nominate Clayton earlier this month was seen at the time as the first step in untangling a messy fight over his housing chief, Bill Pulte, whom the president had previously chosen to serve as intelligence director in an acting capacity after Tulsi Gabbard said she was stepping down from the post. Senators have been rushing to get Clayton confirmed by the end of the week, to get ahead of Pulte’s scheduled start date Friday.
The naming of Pulte imperiled efforts to reauthorize Section 702 of FISA, with some senators saying they wouldn’t vote to reauthorize the law unless Pulte was blocked from the DNI post.
—The U.S. military killed the leader of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua in a “swift and lethal kinetic strike,” President Trump said Friday night.
U.S. forces killed Hector “El Nino” Guerrero, the head of the transnational Tren de Aragua gang, in an attack “coordinated closely with our friends in Venezuela, with whom we are working very well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He did not specify where the strike took place, but published a video showing a projectile blowing up a building.
“The operation underscores the shared U.S. and Venezuelan commitment to take the fight to narco-terrorists and deny them any safe haven in our hemisphere,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a post on X.
The CIA apparently worked with Venezuelan forces on the ground during the operation.
A senior administration official said that the CIA provided the intelligence that led to the strike.
In a statement, Gen. Francis Donovan, the head of U.S. Southern Command, thanked Venezuelan security forces for supporting what he called a joint operation. “Guerrero was a wanted fugitive charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with ordering, directing, and facilitating acts of terrorism and violence in the United States,” Donovan said.
–Also late last Friday, a federal judge stopped the Trump administration from proceeding with a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund,” saying she wasn’t satisfied with the government’s assurances that the fund has been abandoned.
U.S. Judge Leonie Brinkema in the Eastern District of Virginia issued a preliminary injunction blocking the fund for now. She brushed aside arguments from the government that the issue was moot after acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told Congress earlier this month that the administration wasn’t moving forward with the fund.
The judge, an appointee of President Clinton, gave the government a week to make a written and binding commitment under penalty of perjury to drop the fund, which she said shouldn’t be difficult “if the government truly means” what it has said. She told the challengers that if this doesn’t happen, she will move ahead quickly to hear the rest of their case.
—Health officials on Tuesday warned that the Ebola outbreak in East Africa could significantly worsen, saying it could last as long as a year and infect thousands of people if current transmission rates go on unabated.
The outbreak is already one of the largest on record, and has spread most in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where distrust of the authorities and violence in eastern regions have hampered health workers’ ability to help people.
There have been more than 800 confirmed cases in this outbreak, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, and nearly 200 people killed. [These numbers are lower than reality.]
—Tropical Storm Arthur formed along the middle of the Texas coast and brought torrential rain to the Gulf coast and inland, with “flash flood” alerts springing up all over…some areas receiving up to 20 inches of rain (or more) with catastrophic damage in some parts. Very sad.
—President Trump on Truth Social, Monday:
“On July 4th, at The Lincoln Memorial and Washington Monument, in beautiful and safe Washington, D.C., we are going to host the most spectacular TRUMP RALLY of them all, a ‘TRIBUTE TO AMERICA.’ Starting at 7 P.M. EST, this HUGE celebration will honor our Country’s People, Spirit, Strength, Resolve, and Triumphs. With the backdrop of the Lincoln Memorial and surrounding the beautifully new Reflecting Pool, more than 300 Members of our strong and talented Military Bands, Orchestras, and Ceremonial Units, will perform Patriotic Melodies and American Classics, and my Playlist ( We will have none of those people that put you to sleep and constantly complain!), as we celebrate our Country, and Rally into the next 250 years. This ensemble will be the largest formation of Joint Military Music and Ceremonial performances in History. There will be incredible Flyovers and Airshows featuring our Top Military Pilots and Equipment, and I will deliver keynote remarks that you will not want to miss. To conclude the program, and commemorate this Historic Occasion, I will be launching, what will be, the LARGEST FIREWORKS SHOW IN HISTORY, right here in our Nation’s Capital. Do not miss it. See you on JULY 4th in Washington, D.C. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
We pray for the victims and their families of the B-52 bomber that crashed at Edwards Air Force Base in California during a routine test mission on Monday. The eight crew members included members of the military and civilians, some of them government contractors, who were to test a radar modernization program.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4149…Silver $64.49
Oil $77.40
Bitcoin: $63,225 [12:30 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.97; Diesel: $5.09 [$3.20 – $3.62 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 6/15-6/19
Dow Jones +0.7% [51564]
S&P 500 +0.9% [7500]
S&P MidCap N/A
Russell 2000 N/A
Nasdaq +2.4% [26517]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-6/19/26
Dow Jones +7.3%
S&P 500 +9.6%
S&P MidCap +14.7%
Russell 2000 +20.1%
Nasdaq +14.1%
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
