Wednesday, July 1, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., July 1…regular $3.84…diesel $4.84
Yesterday I talked about President Trump’s demand that retail gas station owners lower their price at the pump to $2.50, and I explained to our leader, and you, that you need to know where gasoline futures are, first, and the last few weeks they’ve been hanging out in the $2.90 range, and if they don’t go down a lot more, you’re going to see regular hanging out in the $3.80 area.
But USA TODAY (today), had a piece on the breakdown in the price you see at the pump, courtesy of the U.S. Energy Information Administration:
Crude oil pricing: 57%
Refining costs: 21%
Federal and state taxes: 14%
Distribution and marketing: 8%
For Diesel, the breakdown is:
Crude oil pricing: 42%
Refining costs: 34%
Distribution and marketing: 12%
Federal and state taxes: 12%
So, when you are at a Fourth of July barbecue this weekend, and some blowhard starts talking about the price of gas still being high in some parts, especially relative to actual oil prices in comparison to prior to the start of the war in February, and how “We’re all being gouged, people!”
Calmly hand him another beer and say, “Actually, you want some facts, courtesy of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the good folks at StocksandNews.com?” The other guys and gals at the gathering, long tired of Joe Blow, will nudge each other in admiration of your take down.
Meanwhile, crude oil fell to the $68 level on WTI, essentially right where we were Feb. 27. One wire service story I saw said: “U.S. negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff held constructive talks in Qatar, with a senior administration official saying technical discussions with Iran are advancing as part of indirect efforts to reduce tensions over the key waterway linking Persian Gulf producers to global markets.”
But Kushner and Witkoff weren’t involved in any talks of substance. [They exchanged pleasantries with Qatar’s prime minister.] And Iran’s top negotiators aren’t participating.
Instead, the sessions are between chief negotiators (from Qatar and Pakistan) and specialists.
Iran has stated publicly that its priorities include agreeing on management of the Strait and the release of $6 billion in Iranian frozen assets, and an Iranian official said the current round of discussions would focus on those two issues.
Iran’s state media said on Wednesday a foreign container ship had run aground in the Strait after entering shallow waters outside the shipping route designated by Iranian authorities.
That said, tanker flows are showing tentative improvement following exchanges of strikes over the weekend but remain below pre-war levels. At the same time, Iranian exports have surged past 40 million barrels following the removal of the U.S. blockade, while record-breaking Russian shipments have caused a notable accumulation of seaborne inventory.
However, Tehran continues to insist on maritime administrative control over the Strait.
The New York Times had a story that Iran and Oman (a U.S. ally) were moving forward with plans to collect payment for ships transiting the Strait, despite American objections, “according to an Iranian official and four diplomats with knowledge of the matter.”
But nothing is settled yet. The fact is, we suddenly have a lot of oil on the seas, heading for various destinations, while at the same time as I pointed out recently, Chinese imports of crude have plummeted, for a number of reasons, resulting in less demand from the No. 1 importer of crude in the world. How long this situation in China lasts is really the big question.
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On the equity front, I posted yesterday at 4:00 PM without the exact figures for the end of the second quarter, which had the S&P 500 up 15%, and Nasdaq up 21%, their best quarters in six years. [The Dow Jones was up 13%, its best quarter since 2022.]
Micron Technology was up 242% for the quarter. [$337 on March 31, $1154 June 30, if you want to check the math.] Goodness gracious. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 186%.
Today, the market was down, slightly, with Micron off about 8%, AMD 5%.
And the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for second-quarter growth fell to 1.2% today from 2.5%. Interesting.
Tomorrow, we have the June jobs report.
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In World Cup play today, my favorite player in the sport, Harry Kane (because of his big years at Tottenham), came through for England in a classic superstar way.
With Congo playing a terrific game and up 1-0 late in the second half, Kane scored the equalizer on a header at 75 minutes, and then it was Kane with a spectacular kick for the game-winner at 86’.
So it’s England taking on undefeated Mexico (4-of-4) at the rockin’ Azteca (with its altitude issue), Sunday.
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Dow Jones -13…-0.02% [52305]
S&P 500 -16…-0.2% [7483]
Nasdaq -173…-0.7% [26040]
Oil (WTI) $68.10…Brent $71.20
Gold $4053
Silver $59.53
Bitcoin $59,960 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.17%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.47%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.69%
Back Thurs.
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