Thursday, July 2, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., July 2…regular $3.83…diesel $4.82
Iran and the U.S. concluded a round of indirect talks on Wednesday with no sign they had made headway toward a lasting peace, focusing instead on issues that they said had been resolved when an interim agreement was announced two weeks ago.
Negotiators for the two countries spent two days in Doha discussing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and unfreezing Iran’s funds, two critical issues under the initial agreement.
The next meeting will take place after funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is due to be buried on July 9, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
President Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the two sides were making progress on possible limits to Iran’s nuclear program. “The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well,” he said. “They’ve had very good meetings, and we’ll see.”
Bulls—. The nuclear program, by all accounts, did not come up in the talks this week.
And Vice President Vance admitted as much, saying the matter would be addressed later.
Iran’s joint military command warned Thursday that all oil tankers moving through the Strait must use its approved routes or face a “forceful response,” though the market ignored the warning as there are increased flows through the waterway.
Related to the above, Bloomberg reported “A hoard of Iranian oil is building up at sea, as the Islamic Republic struggles to find buyers before the expiration of a 60-day window granted by Washington.
“More than 58 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate was on-the-water as of July 1, according to data from Vortexa and Bloomberg calculations. More than 90% has no clear destination. The vessels are either indicating ‘for orders’ or Singapore as their next port of call, a sign they may conduct ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait.
“A failure to quickly sell the crude would deprive Tehran of much-needed revenue and could weaken its hand in negotiations with Washington. The Islamic Republic has until mid-August to find buyers after the U.S. lifted sanctions on the oil in the middle of June and ended a blockade of Iranian ports.”
And as I’ve written, Chinese demand has plummeted – and they are Iran’s main customer.
Part of the problem for Iran is that while the U.S. relaxed its sanctions, the European Union and UK restrictions are still in place, complicating insurance, while some ports may be hesitant to accept the dark-fleet vessels that Tehran uses to carry its crude.
Stocks finished mixed today on much lower-than-normal volume, as traders packed it in early. The commuter lot I pass every day was virtually empty, many not wanting to deal with the heat in New York, as well as getting a start on the holiday weekend.
[We hit 101 air temp in my town of Summit, NJ, an hour ago.]
We had a weak jobs report for June, 57,000 on nonfarm payrolls vs. expectations for 110,000, while May’s figure was revised lower. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, 3.5% year-over-year. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.
The yield on the inflation/Fed-sensitive 2-year Treasury fell a bit in response as the report alleviated pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates…at least for now.
South Korean stocks plunged nearly 8% Thursday as volatility in that market continues. Chip giant SK Hynix dove more than 14%, Samsung Electronics more than 9%. But they’ve had spectacular gains the past year.
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As for the terrific win by the USMNT against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup knockout stage last night, it was the ‘red card’ heard ‘round the country, as Folarin Balogun was issued one for a totally accidental boot on the back of the Bosnian defender’s right leg.
Which means that as the U.S. prepares to face Belgium in the Round of 16 Monday night in Seattle, they will have no Balogun, their best offensive threat. This sucks. But we’ll see if Pepe and Reyna can pick up the slack, Belgium’s defense no doubt focusing heavily on Christian Pulisic.
And for your Fourth of July barbecue, as you all know, ground beef prices are at a record $8.62 per pound, as recent BLS data showed. Drought and wildfires have discouraged ranchers from expanding cattle supplies that are at their lowest levels in 75 years, yet demand remains high. A lot of us love our burgers.
Burger King’s ‘Whopper’ sandwich is good value…so says moi.
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Dow Jones +594…+1.1% [52900]
S&P 500 +0.01…+0.00% [7483]
Nasdaq -207…-0.8% [25832]
Oil (WTI) $68.45…Brent $71.60
Gold $4120
Silver $60.75
Bitcoin $61,410 [4:00 PM ET…a little rebound]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.13%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.48%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.76%…highest yield since mid-1990s….
Check out my Week in Review, Friday, which with Wall Street closed tomorrow, will be posted a little earlier, probably around 3:00 PM ET.
Have a great Fourth of July!!!
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