Tues., July 14, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., July 14…regular $3.85…diesel $4.88
At 6:00 AM, crude oil was at $80.90 on WTI, $87.00 for Brent, with gasoline futures at $3.25. As in, that above listed price of $3.85 for regular isn’t going to last.
The U.S. military carried out a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran overnight Monday as President Trump had reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed charging a 20% fee to guard the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE accused Iran of a “brazen” attack on two tankers in the Strait, killing one and wounding eight.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen fired ballistic missiles and drones on Saudi Arabia, the worst attack since a 2022 ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed government in Yemen
Action in the futures markets overnight is often highly volatile, however, as there is limited trading volume, and as the day wore on, crude and gas futures backed off some, after President Trump pulled another 180, abandoning plans to impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait.
Trump said the expected revenue would be offset by future investments in the U.S.
The president on Truth Social at 11:04 AM today:
“Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military… (The) Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran – and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION. We will therefore have a FULL Blockade, but only on Ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything having to do with Iranian cargo. Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future… America is WINNING again, winning like never before. The days of Iran killing hundreds of thousands of people, including 52,000 protesters, are OVER and, most importantly, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
But then this afternoon, oil started rising anew on reports the U.S. was striking Iran yet again.
On Wall Street, we had consumer price data (CPI) for June and across the board it was better than expected, with headline falling 0.4% after rising 0.5% the month prior, while year-over-year the figure was 3.5%, after 4.2% in May.
On core, ex-food and energy, CPI was unchanged, and up 2.6% Y/Y, when consensus was for 0.4% and 2.8%.
Of course, energy costs were going way down in June, and were elevated in May, and now in July, they have headed back up.
So there was a reason that prior to the CPI release at 8:30 AM ET, the 2-year Treasury was at 4.26% and the 10-year 4.61%, and then right after, the two had plummeted to 4.15%% and 4.53%, respectively.
But then market participants realized that July’s CPI #s could see a spike back up, and the 2-year was at about 4.20% late this afternoon, the 10-year 4.58%.
Nonetheless, the report led investors to sharply lower the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its meeting at the end of the month. Before the report, futures markets implied there was a close to 40% chance of a rate increase. That dropped to about 15% in early trading.
IBM stock collapsed more than 25% Tuesday, its worst decline ever, after the company preannounced earnings that fell well below Wall Street’s expectations, as customers shifted spending away from software and mainframe products and toward AI servers and memory.
On the other hand, fellow Dow Jones component Goldman Sachs’ shares rose about 8%.
The action in the other four Big Bank stocks to report today (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo) was mixed.
Tomorrow, we have the June report on producer prices.
In his first testimony before the House Financial Services Committee today, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said policymakers at the central bank have no tolerance for high inflation, reiterating a vow to tame price growth that has been elevated for five years.
Warsh downplayed the CPI data.
“There might be some that look at this morning’s data and say, ‘Oh, mission accomplished. Everything is swell,’” Warsh said. “That is not my view.”
Tomorrow, as he appears before the Senate, he’ll have the PPI data to comment on, perhaps.
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In the first World Cup semifinal…at the half it is Spain 1, France 0. Good game thus far.
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Dow Jones +10…+0.02% [52508]
S&P 500 +28…+0.4% [7543]
Nasdaq +233…+0.9% [26107]
Oil (WTI) $79.70.…Brent $85.30
Gold $4055
Silver $58.83
Bitcoin $64,529 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.18%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.58%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.70%
Back Wed.
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Brian Trumbore
