Thurs., July 16, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., July 16…regular $3.94…diesel $5.00
‘Regular’ up 9 cents in two days, diesel up 12.
Crude oil swung between $78 and $80 on WTI today, remaining at one-month highs amid the escalating hostilities in the Middle East.
Gasoline futures hit $3.35 before backing off some to about $3.28 late today.
Reports showed that the Iranian government had asked the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route should U.S. forces carry out President Trump’s threat to target the country’s infrastructure next week if a diplomatic breakthrough is not achieved.
The U.S. intensified its strikes against Iran, reportedly targeting an oil tanker near the country’s main export terminal for the first time since reimposing a blockade on the country’s ports late Tuesday.
In response, Iran launched attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
According to Reuters, tanker traffic through the Strait has fallen to two-month lows as the conflict has intensified. Only seven vessels transited the waterway on Wednesday, down from 13 the previous day.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, in an interview on the sidelines of the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Wednesday, said the global economy faces a renewed challenge if the conflict that’s choked the Strait isn’t resolved in a matter of weeks.
“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, we may again have some difficulty for global economies, including those in the region and developing nations and Asia,” Birol said. “It is not months, it is weeks” after which the Strait needs to be “fully open, unconditionally open,” he said.
Poor day for equities, with the chip stocks down. SpaceX shares are below their IPO price, but the company has a key test flight of its Starship rocket, slated for 6:45 PM ET. If it goes smoothly, that should be a boost for the shares.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for second-quarter growth was raised today from 1.3% to 1.7%.
Tonight, President Trump is addressing the nation on an issue he is obsessed with, taking the opportunity to escalate his thus-far-false claims about widespread fraud tainting the 2020 presidential election.
Trump teased the speech on Tuesday with reporters, saying it will include “big news” about voting machines and election integrity, but as of early this afternoon, aides were apparently still working on what the president will say, and what ‘evidence’ he’ll present. Stay tuned.
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As for yesterday’s World Cup semifinal between England and Argentina, for good reason, Three Lions fans are beyond distraught today. I posted yesterday after an intense, scoreless first half.
But England’s Anthony Gordon had an electric goal at the 55’ mark, and instead of pressing forward to get a second goal, in a decision that the UK will be discussing in pubs for at least the next few decades, England manager Thomas Tuchel opted to sub off attacking-minded players in favor of extra defenders as the second half wore on.
It worked for a while, but Argentina dominated possession and it was inevitable as they kept pressing forward that they would equalize, Enzo Hernandez doing so at the 85’ mark with a gorgeous strike from distance.
We seemed headed to extra time, and maybe penalty kicks, but with England sitting back and not taking the action to Argentina, it was only a matter of time before Lionel Messi worked his magic with a phenomenal cross to substitute Lautaro Martinez for the game-winning header, 2-1, leaving England and its fans devastated.
In the 37 minutes between Gordon’s opening goal and Martinez’s winner, Argentina had 88% of the possession.
I’ll have more on Tuchel in my weekend Bar Chat.
But now it’s Argentina-Spain, and Messi’s attempt to lead his team and country to back-to-back titles. It should be phenomenal.
Dow Jones -105…-0.2% [52552]
S&P 500 -38…-0.5% [7533]
Nasdaq -387…-1.5% [25881]
Oil (WTI) $79.05…Brent $84.25
Gold $3980
Silver $55.55
Bitcoin $64,227 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.15%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.56%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.70%
Check out my ‘Week in Review’ published Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
