Thurs., Aug. 6, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Aug. 6…regular $4.06…diesel $5.34
‘Regular’ has started to come down, reflecting the fall in gasoline futures to the $2.85 level (Sept. contract).
But today was not a good day when it comes to crude oil and gasoline futures. Oil (WTI) rose back above $78 per barrel after three consecutive sessions of losses, as investors assessed the implications of a proposed shipping agreement through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gasoline futures were up a whopping 12 cents, back to $2.96. Fill up the tank when your local station reduces prices tomorrow, because that might be it.
Iran said it had reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route, though officials stressed it would not amount to a full reopening of the waterway. That was yesterday’s story and the deal is still being finalized. As I also noted, the Wall Street has confirmed that there would be an inbound lane near Iran and an outbound lane near Oman – and have shared it with the U.S., countries in the region and Iran’s top leaders, who still needed to sign off.
Gulf states worry it could entrench Iran’s sway over a waterway that is crucial for their livelihoods.
“The question is whether the Trump administration understands that this agreement tacitly hands Iran control of traffic,” said Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. “And, if Gulf producers decide to use shipping routes that necessitate Iranian approval, they are implicitly surrendering control of the Strait of Hormuz to the Iranian regime.”
The U.S. has repeatedly denied that Iran controls or would be allowed to control the Strait.
While the deal would exclude charging ships tolls or fees, Iran might not be prevented from collecting voluntary payments to cover various costs.
If a deal is announced, the plan would be for the U.S. and Iran to return to the negotiating table to discuss including Iran’s nuclear program and financial relief, according to reports.
Gulf countries are frustrated with what they see as a lack of a clear strategy from the U.S. as the war drags on and subjects their territory to frequent Iranian attacks, which are killing their economies.
And then today, the Houthis said they had conducted a “large-scale” attack against forces from Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, further raising concerns over a broadening of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran into a region-wide conflict.
The Houthis claim to have launched drone and missile attacks in eastern Yemen that killed and injured “hundreds” of troops.
The Houthis said the operation was carried out in response to what it described as “large Saudi military buildups in their final stages.”
This is a serious escalation.
Back in the Strait of Hormuz, the UK Navy reported explosions near a tanker transiting the Strait, while the Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi oil tanker and threatened additional vessels in the Red Sea.
President Trump has yet to comment specifically on the ‘deal’ to reopen the Strait, but this afternoon railed on the Washington Post for an extensive report on a big argument at Camp David last week between the president and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; Trump claiming it was a lie.
But the issue is whether the president has been told the truth about the state, and supply, of our “munitions.”
Multiple reports, from multiple sources, have concluded the same thing. The United States has used up a ton of its most sophisticated weaponry with the Iran War, including 850 Tomahawk missiles, and resupply is not happening at the speed it needs to be, leaving the U.S. highly vulnerable to another conflict (like over Taiwan).
The president posted on Truth Social last night, 12:34 AM:
“The U.S. has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed. Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history. The ‘leakers’ of these treasonous statements are being hunted down. Long term jail sentences will be sought! President DJT”
This just isn’t true, at least the first part. We are dangerously low of some key munitions. Fact. Trump has been lied to, he now knows it, but he can’t admit it. So, he goes off just like he did over Jeanine Pirro and the dropping of the reflecting pool case.
One more, concerning the global energy picture. Ukraine said it hit two oil refineries in multiple strikes deep inside Russia, with patrol boats and other vessels in the Black Sea also hit.
President Volodymyr Zelensky named the two refineries and verified videos showed what appeared to be rather significant damage, including four big fires at one of them. The refineries were 800 and 435 miles from Ukraine’s border.
But these attacks mean Vladimir Putin will then go after population bases and Ukraine said at least 11 were killed in Russian attacks, and the southern city of Kherson reported a total blackout.
With the rise in the oil price, U.S. Treasuries had a rough day, the yield on the 2- and 10-year rising anew on inflation fears.
Stocks fell.
Tomorrow, we get a big jobs report for July that could move the markets.
—
Dow Jones -464…-0.9% [53885]
S&P 500 -13…-0.2% [7710]
Nasdaq -15…-0.1% [26348]
Oil (WTI) $78.00…Brent $83.25
Gold $4245
Silver $61.70
Bitcoin $64,400 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.24%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.66%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.75%
Check out my Week in Review, posted Friday at 4:30 PM ET.
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