Mon., Aug. 31, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Aug. 31…regular $4.08…diesel $5.60
Hostilities broke out in the Gulf region, as U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz Sunday in the first military action in a month, breaking a lull in the fighting.
Forces with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait. U.S. Central Command had said last week that it had completely cleared sea mines from the Strait’s shipping routes.
News outlets in Iran reported sounds of explosions near Larak island on the Strait. The IRGC in a statement carried by Iran’s state broadcaster noted “the martyrdom and injury of several of our fighters and compatriots.” It was then reported at least two were killed.
Earlier on Sunday, a multinational coalition overseen by the U.S. Navy said commercial traffic through the Strait remained at “reduced levels.” And the UK Maritime Trade Organization, a monitoring agency run by the British military, said a tanker ship was struck on Saturday north of Khasab, Oman. There was no claim of responsibility.
This was the third such strike in five days.
Monday, the IRGC launched a missile-and-drone attack on U.S. air bases in Jordan and targets in the UAE in retaliation. Jordan’s military intercepted eight missiles, destroying them before they caused any damage, the Jordan News Agency reported. The UAE also said it intercepted drones.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamanei called on Muslim countries to stand together against Israel and the United State, imploring them to “know your real enemy, understand its plans and confront it,” and called the U.S. and Israel enemies of all Islamic nations, the official IRNA news agency reported. His comments came in a letter to religious leaders attending a conference in Tehran.
President Trump, Monday AM, on Truth Social:
“Iran is officially a Failed Nation. IT IS DEAD! They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, they have no currency, they are not paying their soldiers or police, Inflation is at 300%, and their leadership is in total disarray and incapable of properly representing the country. The only thing they have is FAKE NEWS from the USA, a willingness to kill their protesters (now over 100,000 people dead. They must be tried for war crimes against humanity!), and a good line of ‘BULLSHIT.’”
Trump then told Fox News by phone that the U.S. would respond to Iran’s retaliatory strikes.
“We’re going to hit them hard,” Trump said. “There will be a response.”
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry condemned Iran’s strikes on regional countries, warning the hostilities “complicate efforts aimed at containing tensions and undermine political and diplomatic efforts seeking to achieve security and stability in the region.”
What efforts? There were no negotiations.
Trump last week said the U.S. is in no rush to resume talks with Iran, pointing to steady oil flow out of the Strait and the mounting pressure on Tehran.
No surprise crude oil rose Monday after the weekend’s news, WTI over $85, Brent over $90. Gasoline futures rose (though we rolled over into a new contract and the pricing the first few days is always confusing in terms of levels I view as key to getting the nationwide price at the pump below $4.00, for starters).
More importantly, while crude oil is being shipped through the Strait, and other alternatives the likes of the Saudis and UAE have been working on since the war started, there is little diesel and other refined products getting through, and, to beat a dead horse, Russia, the No. 2 exporter of diesel in the world, has prohibited exports of same until at least January due to Ukraine’s drone and missile campaign on Russia’s refineries.
Stocks also fell and the yield on the key 10-year Treasury rose a few basis points on the inflationary increase in oil.
On a different topic, data centers and the broad-based opposition to same across the country in both red and blue states, President Trump wrote Monday AM on Truth Social:
“The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place*, let Data Reign. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti Data Center movement. Actually, they can’t believe it is happening! President DJT”
*Yeah, as every fourth grader now knows, the jobs in building a data center are plentiful, but try going from 1,500 to build it to a maximum of 50 employees to service it after. That’s been the norm. And there are some, like Elon Musk, who want robots to service data centers.
Looking at the calendar for the coming week, we have a big jobs report Friday, which became even more important following Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole last Friday, when he strongly hinted at a rate hike when the Open Market Committee gathers on Sept. 15-16, though he didn’t exactly come out and say this.
The point being, a strong jobs report will only buttress the arguments of those in the rate-hike camp.
September is also historically the worst month of the year.
—
Dow Jones -374…-0.7% [53185]
S&P 500 -25…-0.3% [7686]
Nasdaq -31…-0.1% [26370]
Oil (WTI) $85.95…Brent $90.45
Gold $4450
Silver $66.60
Bitcoin $78,887 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.34%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.75%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.91%
Back Tues.
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Brian Trumbore
