Thurs., Sept. 3, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Sept. 3…regular $4.14…diesel $5.78 …up 10 cents from Tues. Record is $5.81 (6/19/22).
Even Jim Cramer on CNBC was talking this morning about the severe impact the price of diesel has on prices, in rebutting the initial market reaction to influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks today at an event hosted by Reuters.
Waller said his next decision on interest rates (the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 15-16) will be “heavily influenced” by August inflation data due end of next week, adding it may not take much to nudge him toward supporting a rate hike.
“If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level,” Waller said. “But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”
But the market took this as a dovish signal, not hawkish, and Treasury yields fell (stocks rose bigly) when the speech was released, which made no sense to me, or Jim Cramer.
Describing current policy as slightly restraining the economy, Waller added, “It may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy. If there is evidence that progress toward 2% inflation reversed in August, a small adjustment in our stance would help ensure that it resumes.”
But the market focused more on this:
“While inflation remains meaningfully above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% goal, recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” Waller said.
At the FOMC’s last meeting in July, three voting members dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate hike, and officials have continued to send mixed signals on their outlook for the economy.
Separately, Waller said he expects the jobs data tomorrow, Friday, will confirm that the labor market is in a satisfactory state.
Earlier this week, Governor Michael Barr said the central bank should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation fails to subside, warning price pressures are at risk of becoming entrenched after being above target for more than five years.
Yesterday, New York Fed President John Williams said there’s evidence that inflation is continuing to ease as the impact of tariffs fades while higher energy prices are not spreading to other services.
Back to oil, WTI was trading above $91 early afternoon, Brent around $95.50, as Iran claimed overnight strikes on U.S. bases in the region (there were no reports of casualties) and Israel indicated that it was prepared to return to the fighting if necessary.
Yesterday, however, President Trump said renewed hostilities in the Middle East would not last “too long.”
Despite the escalation, there were signs that crude supplies were still reaching the market, though the monitoring experts differed greatly with the U.S. government’s figures on just how many ships were getting through. Iraq’s exports increased in August, with the figure expected to rise further in September. On the other hand, Russia intends to begin reducing oil production this year, according to the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak.
In the U.S., distillate fuel stocks (including diesel) remain 14% below the five-year average for this time of year.
In fact, diesel stockpiles are at the lowest ever for this time of year, according to Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday. And September marks the start of the fuel’s peak-demand period.
Remember, I quoted TotalEnergies SE’s Patrick Pouyanne recently who said at a conference in Norway that while you hear about the super tankers carrying oil that are getting through the Strait of Hormuz, there wasn’t a “single tanker of products” [like diesel] moving out of the waterway.
And Russia, which accounts for 10% of global supplies of diesel, is not exporting diesel for at least another month, probably until the end of the year.
Diesel, the workhorse of the global economy, presents a political headache for President Trump ahead of the midterms. He’s been pressing refiners to boost domestic production of diesel and gasoline, but the refineries are running full tilt, and at the expense of maintenance, which could come back to haunt them in a few months.
Stocks had a big day, running with Waller’s comments, but I believe wrongly.
Jobs report tomorrow.
—
Dow Jones +624…+1.2% [53686]
S&P 500 +80…+1.1% [7747]
Nasdaq +366…+1.4% [26584]
Oil (WTI) $91.60…Brent $95.60
Gold $4475
Silver $67.05
Bitcoin $81,743 [4:00 PM ET…big surge in the afternoon…]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.34%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.77%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.94%
Check out my Week in Review, posted Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
