[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated. Please click on the GoFundMe link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.
For Zelle: use recipient briannovak24@gmail.com.
Every little bit helps!
Edition 1,428
As noted below, diesel is now at a record high and this isn’t good, sports fans.
Diesel is the workhorse of the global economy, and the record price presents a political headache for President Trump ahead of the midterms. He’s been pressing refiners to boost domestic production of diesel and gasoline, but the refineries are running full tilt, and at the expense of maintenance, which could come back to haunt them in a few months.
But more expensive fuel is increasing bills for businesses across sectors – some of which have already passed off costs to consumers in the form of added fees on online orders and packages in the mail. And we’re all seeing an impact at the grocery store, particularly with produce, meat and other perishable foods that need to be hauled in and restocked frequently – or even harvested using diesel-powered farm equipment.
In the U.S., distillate fuel stocks (including diesel) remain 14% below the five-year average for this time of year.
In fact, diesel stockpiles are at the lowest ever for this time of year, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday. And September marks the start of the fuel’s peak-demand period.
Plus, Russia, which accounts for 10% of the global supplies of diesel, is not exporting diesel for at least another month, probably until the end of the year, due to Ukraine’s attacks on its refineries.
—
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Sept. 4…$91.20
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, Sept. 4…regular $4.14; diesel $5.85*
*New record high
As it went down, day by day in the Iran War….
U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz Sunday in the first military action in a month, breaking a lull in fighting.
Forces with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait. The U.S. military last week completed clearing sea mines from the Strait’s shipping routes, according to Central Command.
News outlets in Iran reported sounds of explosions near Larak island on the Strait. The IRGC in a statement carried by Iran’s state broadcaster noted “the martyrdom and injury of several of our fighters and compatriots.”
The statement said the attack will “result in punishment of the aggressor.”
Earlier on Sunday, a multinational coalition overseen by the U.S. Navy said commercial traffic through the Strait remained at “reduced levels.” And the UK Maritime Trade Organization, a monitoring agency run by the British military, said an unknown projectile struck a tanker ship on Saturday north of Khasab, Oman, in the Strait. There was no claim of responsibility.
This was the third such strike in five days.
Early Monday, the IRGC launched a missile-and-drone attack on U.S. air bases in Jordan in retaliation. Jordan’s military intercepted eight missiles after they breached the kingdom’s airspace, destroying them before they caused any damage, the Jordan News Agency reported.
Separately, Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei called on Muslim countries to stand together against Israel and the United States, imploring them to “know your real enemy, understand its plans and confront it,” and called the U.S. and Israel enemies of all Islamic nations, the official IRNA news agency reported. His comments came in a letter to religious leaders attending a conference in Tehran.
President Trump on Truth Social, Mon. AM:
“Iran is officially a Failed Nation. IT IS DEAD! They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, they have no currency, they are not paying their soldiers or police, Inflation is at 300%, and their leadership is in total disarray and incapable of properly representing the country. The only thing they have is FAKE NEWS from the USA, a willingness to kill their protesters (now over 100,000 people dead. They must be tried for war crimes against humanity!), and a good line of ‘BULLSHIT.’ Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Trump vowed a U.S. response to Iran’s retaliatory strikes that were intercepted in Jordan.
“We’re going to hit them hard,” Trump told Fox News. “There will be a response.”
The conflict then escalated sharply, with American forces carrying out a fresh wave of strikes and Iran saying it had retaliated.
President Trump downplayed the chances of a deal, writing on Truth Social that he’s “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table.”
U.S. Central Command said that the targets in Tuesday’s operation included “air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communication sites” associated with the IRGC.
“The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members,” Central Command added in a statement posted on X on Tuesday evening. It was the second round of U.S. strikes in about three days.
Within hours, Iran said its forces had launched a “decisive operation” against U.S. bases in the region, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. Tehran said it fired missiles at an American base in Jordan and at a U.S. military facility in Bahrain. Kuwait reported that it intercepted incoming fire.
The U.S. military also attacked two Iranian tankers under a new “tanker for tanker” policy approved by Trump, Axios reported, citing an American official it did not name. This came about a day after two oil supertankers attempting to exit the Strait were hit in quick succession by projectiles, maritime security consultant Marisks said.
Oil hit $96 on Brent Tuesday afternoon.
Trump, Tuesday PM:
“The United States is, as we speak, striking Iranian Targets near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes are large and powerful, and in retaliation for the Iranians’ failed attempt at adding sea mines to the Strait, which currently has no mines (They have been completely removed or detonated!), and the Iranians shooting eight missiles, all successfully knocked down, at our Military Base in Jordan. If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!”
But Wednesday, when asked by reporters how long the bombing campaign could last, Trump said, “I don’t think too long.”
Vice President JD Vance on Thursday held a White House press briefing and he rejected the use of the word “war” to describe the U.S. fighting with Iran as he steered clear of predicting that the conflict would be over by the midterm elections.
“I wouldn’t call it a war,” Vance said. “Right now, there is no active shooting.”
“But when you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” Vance said. “I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians.”
—In Israel, former Israeli military leaders are speaking out on the settler violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, with Maj. Gen. Eyal Ben-Reuven touring the area with other retired generals and former officials like himself.
General Ben-Reuven says he has an entirely different understanding of the risks facing Israel today.
“This, what the settlers are doing here, is the real threat to Israel,” he told the New York Times. “This is more concerning to me than Iran, Gaza or Lebanon.”
Other former high-ranking Israeli officials touring the West Bank with him shared the same indignation.
“This is ethnic cleansing, to put it simply,” Ephraim Sneh, a retired brigadier general and former minister of health, said of Israeli settlers’ attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.
Asaf Agmon, a retired Air Force general, said of the effort to erase the Palestinian presence from much of the West Bank:
“Once society behaves this way, that society is doomed.”
More than 3,200 Palestinians have been displaced by settler attacks this year alone – double the rate of last year. The UN says more than three per day have been injured in 2026.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
Even Jim Cramer on CNBC was talking Thursday about the severe impact the price of diesel has on prices, in rebutting the initial market reaction to influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks Thursday at an event hosted by Reuters.
Waller said his next decision on interest rates (the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 15-16) will be “heavily influenced” by August inflation data due end of next week, adding it may not take much to nudge him toward supporting a rate hike.
“If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level,” Waller said. “But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”
Describing current policy as slightly restraining the economy, Waller added, “It may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy. If there is evidence that progress toward 2% inflation reversed in August, a small adjustment in our stance would help ensure that it resumes.”
But the market focused more on this:
“While inflation remains meaningfully above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% goal, recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” Waller said.
At the FOMC’s last meeting in July, three voting members dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate hike, and officials have continued to send mixed signals on their outlook for the economy.
Separately, Waller said he expects the jobs data will confirm that the labor market is in a satisfactory state.
Earlier in the week, Fed Governor Michael Barr said the central bank should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation rails to subside, warning price pressures are at risk of becoming entrenched after being above target for more than five years.
So, then the jobs report for August was revealed and the numbers came in far stronger than expected, 162,000, while the prior month was revised upwards, from minus-23,000 to up 21,000.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, 3.1% year-over-year, the last figure not great given the pace of inflation.
President Trump on Truth Social, Friday:
“How crazy is this? We just got GREAT Numbers on Jobs, the Market should go up, because our Credit and Economy are better but, as always, for the past 25 years, the Stock Market goes DOWN, because we’re living under False Reality that if things are good, you’ve got to ‘KILL IT’ because of a ‘fear’ of Inflation. It should be the opposite, and always was until 25 years ago. If we stay with this Theory, we will never be able to have the True Economic Greatness for our Country that it deserves, because every time we do well, the stupid people want to immediately stop this Great Upward Momentum. GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION! I knew this morning as soon as I looked at these fantastic Job Numbers that the Market would go down when it should be going UP like a Rocketship. We should be doing GDP of 15 and 20%, not 2, 3, and 4%, and America should become Far Greater Financially that it is right now. Our Debt would be paid off, and all of these other things would happen. Remember, every point in the Interest Rate costs the U.S. 650 Billion Dollars a year. We should pay the Lowest Interest Rates in the World because we make everything run, and give otherwise failed countries Great Economic Wealth! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Earlier in the day, Trump posted in part:
“We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like ‘the old days.’ Without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses, and we could stop that immediately, they would no longer be considered financially ELITE! LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT, which the U.S. Supreme Court, in its ridiculous and very costly Tariff decision, strongly acknowledged ‘the President’ has an absolute right to do. IT’S BETTER THAN TARIFFS! The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!”
Whatever you say, Mr. President. Hit ‘em straight this weekend.
In other economic news, the August manufacturing PMI was 54.6, a little below consensus, and 55.4 for services (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).
Next week, as noted above, we get the August inflation numbers, CPI and PPI, which will be critical for the Fed as it prepares for its meeting the following week.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for third-quarter growth is 4.7%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.71%, highest of the year.
–On the Data Center issue…President Trump on Truth Social, Mon. AM:
“The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti Data Center movement. Actually, they can’t believe it is happening! President DJT”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Can the U.S. political system meet the challenges of our rapidly changing age? The answer is far from certain, and the latest evidence for pessimism is the election-year panic over data centers.
“The centers that look like large warehouses are crucial for artificial intelligence. The U.S. is in an AI competition with China, which won’t be a benevolent force if the U.S. falls behind. Without the energy and the data centers to power it, America’s safety and prosperity will be compromised.
“Yet watching the election campaign, you’d think data centers are the biggest problem America faces. We’re running scared over investment that creates jobs and pays local property taxes….
“It’s true the AI industry has hurt its own cause by fueling speculative anxiety about mass unemployment. AI developers have also failed to explain how data centers benefit local communities. But the larger failure has been the lack of political leadership in explaining the technological and economic transition now underway and how to address it.
“On data centers, there’s a strong case to be made. The U.S. has more than 5,400 data centers, which are the backbone of the internet and power the apps on your smartphone. Data centers enable Zoom meetings, online food deliveries, video streaming, instant retail stock trading and more. If data centers went dark, so would the modern economy.
“New large-scale data centers are needed to train and run AI models, and more than chatbots. Businesses large and small use AI to boost productivity, which lets them pay workers more. Steel maker Cleveland-Cliffs recently announced an upgrade to an Ohio plant that will incorporate AI to improve efficiency.
“Utilities use AI to prepare for natural disasters and reduce power outages. AI models are helping diagnose cancer at earlier stages and develop cures. Data centers bring high-paying construction jobs, and skilled blue-collar workers are needed to run them….
“Data centers also generate scant pollution. Their CO2 emissions mainly stem from the natural gas plants that power them. But modern gas generators produce upward of 90% less fine particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide than a steel mill.
“Data centers also deploy efficient systems to recirculate wastewater, so they don’t affect the supply of drinking water….
“Americans are understandably concerned about rising electric bills, but data centers aren’t the culprit. Average electric rates nationwide have increased roughly in line with inflation since 2016, with larger increases in the Northeast and California, largely because of climate policies such as net-metering that lets homes with solar panels free-load on the grid. A study by the Electric Power Research Institute found that data centers between 2015 and 2024 reduced residential rates by spreading the grid’s fixed costs over a larger electric load.
“In any event, most data center developers have agreed to cover the incremental costs they add to the grid. The Trump Administration was a leader here in bringing AI firms, utilities and political actors together, an most AI firms have cooperated.
“The surge of opposition to data centers reflects misinformation and anxiety about the future more than it does reality. Both are driven in part by the same people who have sought to block shale fracking, liquefied natural gas exports and other projects that enhance American prosperity and national security.
“Mr. Trump is finally speaking up… The President rightly notes that if the bipartisan campaign against data centers succeeds, the winner will be the Chinese Communist Party.”
Europe and Asia
–It was PMI week around the globe, and in Europe, the eurozone composite for August was 52.0, unchanged over July. The manufacturing component was 52.7, services 51.6. [S&P Global]
Germany: mfg. 54.3 (51-mo. high), services 49.7
France: mfg. 51.1, services 48.0
Italy: mfg. 49.6, services 55.2
Spain: mfg. 49.5, services 57.8
Ireland: mfg. 55.4, services 55.4 [yes, the same for both]
UK: mfg. 51.7, services 52.5
Joe Hayes, senior economist, S&P Global:
“August’s PMI data puts the euro area on track for a solid quarter of growth in Q3. Momentum in the industrial economy has picked up nicely and the service sector has shaken off the initial weakness seen after energy prices surged at the start of the Middle East war.”
On the inflation front, Eurostat released a flash estimate for August in the euro area, 3.3%, up from 2.9%. Ex-food and energy, however, the figure was just 2.1%.
Nonetheless, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates at its meeting next week.
Industrial producer prices increased 1.6% in July over June in the EA21; up 5.8% from a year ago.
Retail trade in the eurozone fell 0.6% in July compared with June, but was up 0.6% from a year ago.
The EA21 unemployment rate for July was 6.4%.
Germany: A leading economic-research institute, the Ifo Institute, raised its growth forecast to 1.4% in 2026, from 0.8% in its previous quarterly report made in June. Ifo cited increased spending on infrastructure, climate and defense as factors in overcoming the energy-price shock and low water levels in rivers, which are big transportation channels in Europe.
Italy: In a country where governments are famously short-lived, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni has proved the exception as her administration became Italy’s longest-serving uninterrupted government since World War II at 1,413 days on Thursday, surpassing the record set by the late Silvio Berlusconi between 2001 and 2005.
Iceland: Voters rejected a proposal to restart negotiations on joining the European Union more than a decade after previous talks ended; opponents defeating the measure by a margin of 52.8% to 47.2%. Iceland remains a member of NATO.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported the August manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8, non-manufacturing 49.0.
RatingDog’s private surveys had manufacturing at 51.5, services 51.4.
Japan’s August manufacturing PMI was 54.9, services 52.5.
July industrial production was up 0.1 from June, 4.1% year-over-year.
July retail sales rose 2.4% M/M, 4% Y/Y.
South Korea’s August manufacturing PMI reading was 52.3… Taiwan’s 54.7.
Street Bytes
—Stocks were fractionally mixed on the week…the Dow Jones falling 0.3% to 53414, the S&P 500 gaining 0.1% and Nasdaq up 0.4%.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.00% 2-yr. 4.37% 10-yr. 4.78% 30-yr. 5.24%
At the end of a volatile week, the yield on the 10-year was up six basis points, having hit 4.80%, which represented the highest since Nov. 2023.
—President Trump announced an unprecedented U.S. push to take control of a fifth of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, betting that American companies can revive the OPEC nation’s battered energy industry while delivering a new source of crude to help bring down U.S. gas prices.
Trump said the agreement would more than double American oil reserves and “substantially” lower gas prices for Americans.
But Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in a shambles and nothing will come of this overnight. Try years.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“President Trump has long said he favors ‘taking the oil’ when the U.S. intervenes overseas, and now he is doing so in extraordinary fashion. His deal announced late Friday with unelected President Delcy Rodriguez for rights to 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves looks less like a normal commercial transaction than it does the famous scene of U.S. businessmen meeting with the Cuban strongman in ‘The Godfather Part II.’
“ ‘This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future,’ Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. He said he’ll use Venezuelan oil to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve that has been extensively tapped by him and Joe Biden.
“Official details of the agreement are scarce, but the facts reported by the Journal over the weekend aren’t cause for enthusiasm. The U.S. will take a 35% stake in a private company run by Alejandro Betancourt, a Venezuelan businessman close to Ms. Rodriguez. The Betancourt firm, North American Blue Energy Partners, will be able to develop those 65 billion in reserves, and the U.S. will have preferential rights to 20% of what the firm produces at the cost of production.
“The U.S. investor here will be the Pentagon, of all agencies… The legal authority for this is far from clear, since the Defense Department is investing in a foreign entity….
“Why is the Pentagon even playing in global oil markets when it has enough to do buying new weapons in short supply and reforming its broken procurement process? The global oil market is under stress from the Iran war, but by and large it does a good job of matching supply and demand.
“Venezuela produces only about 1.1 million barrels of oil a day now, and deep wells in Guyana and new investment in Argentine shale (including by U.S. entrepreneur Harold Hamm) are coming in the Americas. Venezuelan production will take years to ramp up.
“Who will finance this oil production and which companies will invest to extract it? Mr. Trump has been pleading with U.S. oil firms to invest on their own in Venezuela since he snatched President Nicolas Maduro in January. But most say the government hasn’t provided the right legal or contractual protections. Chevron is a long-time player in the country.
“The politics of all this are even more complicated, to put it mildly. The U.S. government is essentially getting in bed with a foreign dictator and her favored capitalist. Any foreign firm that invests will have all three as de facto partners, but Mr. Trump will be out of office in 2029 and the heavy-handed U.S. role might not play well over time in Caracas.
“The oil deal will prop up Ms. Rodriguez, at least in the short term, and that may be part of Mr. Trump’s motivation. She has courted the President to survive in power and to stave off demands from the opposition to establish a process for new elections. Mr. Trump likes nothing better than a leader, elected or not, who bends to his wishes.
“It’s notable that both the Venezuelan opposition and Ms. Rodriguez’s left-wing allies are criticizing the deal. The Bolivarian left views it as a concession to North American imperialism, and it will play that nationalist card if there is another election.
“The democratic opposition views the deal as the act of an illegitimate president who has no right to turn over national resources to a business pal and a foreign government. It also fears that the deal will make it less likely that Mr. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will press for new elections. On that last point the U.S. has been making modest progress, which was slowed by the recent earthquake.
“Much still isn’t known, but it all looks like an example of the Trump Administration’s extending its creepy crony statism beyond U.S. shores. In the ‘Godfather’ saga, the Cuban dictator got a golden telephone from his visitors but was soon out of power.”
Speaking of Chevron, it is confirming that it will expand its operations in Venezuela, which is separate from Trump’s deal.
Chevron said Wednesday that it has been assigned additional acreage in the Orinoco Belt, where the company has an established position. Joint venture plans include investing more than $7 billion over the next five years, more than doubling production to approximately 600,000 barrels a day compared to 2026.
—John Ternus became Apple’s chief executive on Tuesday, succeeding Tim Cook, the company’s leader for the last 15 years.
While Cook vowed the handoff will be “perfectly smooth,” Ternus is going to have to guide Apple through an unusual amount of leadership churn. He will have to stem an exodus of talent to companies like OpenAI. And he’s going to have to distinguish himself from Cook, who will remain executive chair.
Most importantly, Ternus will have to perform a balancing act: displaying the financial predictability that was a hallmark of the Cook era, while showing that Apple can still create new products that capture the imagination of consumers.
And this comes at a time of generational change in technology. At its annual event this month, Apple is expected to unveil a foldable iPhone – its most significant change in 19 years.
—Dell Technologies shares rose after the company raised its full fiscal year revenue outlook by $25 billion to $192 billion, ahead of analyst expectations of $174 billion, driven by demand for its servers.
The outlook includes $74 billion of revenue from AI-optimized servers, up from a previous view of $60 billion and representing threefold year-over-year growth.
Dell also forecast adjusted earnings of $25.50 a share, up from its prior view of $17.90 a share and ahead of expectations of $18.99 a share.
The boost to guidance came as the company reported a more than threefold increase in its second-quarter profit, driven by demand for AI infrastructure. Dell’s net income was $4.13 billion, or $6.34 a share, in the quarter ended July 31, compared with $1.16 billion, or $1.70 a share, a year earlier.
On an adjusted basis, earnings were $7.04 a share, with analysts expecting $4.91 a share, a huge beat.
Revenue surged 58% to $46.97 billion, with consensus at $44.89 billion.
The growth was driven by Dell’s Infrastructure Solutions Group, which includes the technological infrastructure powering AI workloads. Revenue from AI-optimized servers doubled to $16.4 billion, while traditional servers and networking revenue surged 122% to $10.53 billion and storage revenue rose 26% to $4.85 billion.
The Client Solutions Group, which includes Dell’s personal-computer business, posted comparatively modest gains. Commercial revenue within the group rose 22% to $13.19 billion, while consumer revenue grew 7% to $1.84 billion.
For the current quarter, the company is projecting adjusted earnings of $6.50 a share on $49 billion of revenue. Analysts are currently at adjusted earnings of $4.46 a share on $41.36 billion in revenue.
—Nvidia agreed to buy New York-based AI startup Hugging Face in a deal worth roughly $13 billion, the latest acquisition by the chip giant at the center of the AI boom.
The deal comes as Nvidia ramps up efforts to develop open-weight models and related services, moves that could help counter the rapid ascent of open models developed in China that pose fresh competitive threats to leading U.S. AI companies.
Founded a decade ago, Hugging Face has grown into a platform where engineers collaborate on machine-learning projects, from model development to applications. It was the target of a recent unexpected hack a new OpenAI model that went rogue.
TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
9/3…138 percent of 2025 levels
9/2…90
9/1…65…Labor Day was 9/1 in 2025…thus the lousy comp….
8/31…100
8/30…115
8/29…67
8/28…88
8/27…112
—Crop prices capped their biggest monthly jump in more than a decade as wars and extreme weather disrupted supplies, raising concerns about food inflation.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 major products, is up more than 13% in August as of Friday, heading for the steepest gain since July 2012. Wheat has been one of the biggest drivers, with prices recently reaching a three-year high as Black Sea port attacks slash shipments from a major growing region. Sugar and cocoa are also up about 20% as a strengthening El Nino fuels weather worries.
It can take time for pricier crops to feed through to supermarket shelves, but the gains come on top of rising energy and transport bills driven by the war in Iran, first and foremost the cost of diesel.
For wheat, grain exports from Ukraine and Russia have slowed as both sides strike each other’s ships and ports. And Russia is escalating further as negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end.
Together, the two nations account for more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports, as well as large amounts of barley, corn and sunflower oil.
U.S. and European corn harvests have also both been hit by heat waves, with a powerful El Nino set to pose risks to crops into next year.
—Volkswagen said on Thursday that it would go forward with the most sweeping restructuring in its 89-year history, cutting about 50,000 additional jobs in the face of surging Chinese competition, high energy prices and a costly transition to electric vehicles.
Volkswagen’s worldwide work force numbers more than 650,000 worldwide. Fifty thousand were cut earlier.
—Lululemon Athletica shares got crushed to the tune of 20% after the company reported quarterly revenue that fell short of expectations and lowered its full-year guidance.
For its second fiscal quarter ended in July, Lululemon reported sales of $2.4 billion, below the $2.458 the Street expected, and down from $2.525 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted earnings handily beat projections, but included a hefty federal tariff refund.
Same-store sales fell 9% during the quarter, nearly double the decline of 4.6% that analysts had projected.
North American revenue cratered 8%, but revenues were up 4% in China and the rest of the world.
It added nine net new company-operated stores during the quarter, ending with 825 stores.
For the current quarter, Lululemon expects revenue of $2.29 billion to $2.32 billion, a decline of 10% to 11% from a year ago.
—Campbell’s stock fell after the company cut its quarterly dividend by 36% to 25 cents a share to protect the company’s health amid weak consumer spending.
The soup and snack maker said it has closed plants and laid off workers to protect margins, part of a sweeping cost-cutting program aimed at saving $500 million by fiscal 2030.
CEO Mick Beekhuizen said that Campbell’s is “addressing reality head-on” by intensifying its focus on the consumer, sharpening its execution, and adjusting prices in certain categories to reflect changes in commodity costs.
Sales in the fiscal fourth quarter fell 8% to $2.1 billion, in line with forecasts. Across product lines, sales within its snacks division sank 12%, while the same metric fell 4% in its meals and beverages unit.
–Three years after Warner Bros. abruptly canned “Coyote vs. Acme,” the Looney Tunes feature film that was given a new lease on life by Ketchup Entertainment debuted with an estimated $15.5 million in ticket sales over the weekend.
For the fifth weekend in a row, “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” topped the North American box office. It grossed $22.2 million in U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday, bringing its worldwide total to $2.33 billion and making it the fourth highest-grossing film of all time.
“Coyote vs. Acme,” which had been relegated to the dust heap, fared best of the newcomers, debuting in second place.
The Ridley Scott action drama “The Dog Stars,” flopped. The film, about a pilot and German Shepherd who survive a global pandemic, opened in fifth place with $8 million (and an additional $11.3 million overseas), a poor result for a film that cost between $70 million and $100 million to make.
“Coyote vs. Acme” cost $70 million to make, but despite good test screening scores, Warner Bros. opted to ax the completed film. After an outcry, the studio put the film up for sale. Early last year, Ketchup Entertainment acquired worldwide distribution rights for about $50 million.
—Maria Bartiromo, one of Fox News’s most recognizable anchors and a fierce backer of President Trump, is leaving the network, the company said in a terse statement on Thursday. Fox did not specify a reason for the abrupt departure. There’s a story out there that she could be named White House press secretary.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Going back to last weekend, a Russian strike on a weapons depot that was dangerously close to civilian buildings left at least 37 people dead near Ukraine’s capital, in one of the deadliest attacks in the country this year.
The strike came after days of nonstop Russian drone attacks on Kyiv that have strained Ukraine’s limited air defenses and exhausted the population. The Ukrainian authorities called the storage of weapons in civilian areas negligent and vowed to investigate.
The strike, which took place late Friday, caused huge secondary explosions from stocks of Ukrainian ammunition, including shells, mines and drones, President Zelensky said in a video address, noting the depot “definitely shouldn’t have been there.”
“The situation is horrific, and it’s a terrible display of negligence on the part of those who stored explosive materials so close to people,” Zelensky said, adding that a criminal investigation was already underway into the management of the warehouse.
Another Ukrainian ammunition facility in Vyshnere, an area outside Kyiv, was destroyed just last month, killing several people and prompting a separate investigation into the decision to store dangerous arms in civilian areas.
Ukraine also continues to face a dire shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, the only weapon the country has that can shoot down ballistic missiles. Russia is seizing on that gap in Ukraine’s arsenal this summer.
In the past, Russia often launched daytime waves of reconnaissance drones ahead of combined drone and missile attacks overnight. But the droves of armed drones that now swarm the capital daily suggest that Russia is using a new tactic to spread fear and anxiety.
—Ukraine has received intelligence that Russia is preparing for a possible new ground offensive toward Kyiv as well as Chernihiv in the nation’s far north, according to Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office.
“Our priority is not to allow Russians to launch any offensive actions at all,” Palisa told reporters late last Friday.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Saturday that he’s braced for “Russian provocations” against a member of the NATO alliance, and for Russian escalation in general, citing an assessment from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
“The next six months will be decisive, and we – as Poland and as NATO – must be prepared for various scenarios,” Tusk said in a post on X.
On the other hand, Russia continues to sustain massive troop losses in eastern Ukraine, with the number of casualties since February consistently exceeding the number of those recruited and mobilized, according to Palisa.
In July alone, the number of Russians killed and wounded on the battlefield reached 43,000 while the number of conscripts was 37,000, Palisa said. The figures can’t be confirmed.
Russian attacks across Ukraine on Monday killed at least 12 people.
—At a summit in Kyrgyzstan, a defiant Vladimir Putin pledged to continue his escalating war against Ukraine and support for Iran in its conflict with the United States.
Putin said the Russian military had been given orders to carry out mass strikes against the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. He said Russia’s strikes were jeopardizing Ukraine’s agricultural exports and risking a financial crisis.
Addressing reporters, Putin said: “They are asking us to resume negotiations… but you don’t negotiate with terrorists.”
Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes had damaged infrastructure inside Russia, while insisting that “only 10%” of oil refineries were left to repair.
But then the next day in Vladivostok, Putin said there was a chance of reaching an agreement to end the war, while President Zelensky said U.S. negotiators trying to broker a deal would soon visit both Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin, speaking at an economic forum, said a number of countries including the U.S. and China were ready to support a peace settlement.
“Ultimately, however, the problem must be resolved by the countries involved in the conflict – Russia and Ukraine,” he said. “We are grateful to everyone attempting to contribute to a settlement. Is there a chance? In my view, yes, there is.”
Yeah, but any deal would be under Russia’s terms and no doubt require Ukraine to give up land which Zelensky will never agree to.
—President Zelensky told airlines that Russian airspace will be “effectively closing” as his country escalates its drone strikes.
“We want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, everyone who still uses key Russian airports: the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous,” Zelensky said.
Most Western commercial airlines do not fly over Russia as a consequence of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, but carriers in countries such as China, Turkey and Gulf state airlines are among those using Russian airspace, with savings in time and fuel on routes between Asia and Europe.
Putin responded by saying that Zelensky’s comments amounted to a “declaration of state terrorism,” while adding that Russia would continue its own intensifying attacks on Ukraine.
—Russia’s attacks on printing presses and publishing houses across Ukraine in recent months have destroyed 12 million books and damaged other icons of Ukrainian history and culture. Local media has reported that Russia has destroyed one third of all the books printed in Ukraine this year.
Museums, art galleries, film studios, libraries, and opera houses have also been damaged. Said one publishing executive, “The Russians are destroying printing houses in an attempt to erase Ukraine as a nation. But frankly they will not succeed.”
—President Zelensky dismissed a department head at the country’s security service following a shootout between officers from two rival intelligence agencies on the streets of Kyiv on Wednesday.
The dismissal of Oleh Khramov from the department of Protection of State Secrets at SBU came hours after footage of the exchange of fire between two vehicles circulated widely on social media, sparking outrage across Ukraine.
Zelensky described the incident as “an absolutely disgraceful situation” in a separate statement on Telegram.
—Russia is shuttering German cultural centers across the country, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday. The move comes after Berlin blamed Moscow for an attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport and announced the closure of both the Russian Consulate in Bonn and the Russian House cultural center in the German capital.
Russia closed German cultural centers in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Yekaterinburg.
Random Musings
—Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 44% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 55% disapprove (Sept. 4).
A UMass Amherst national poll had Trump’s approval rating at just 32%.
Tatisha Nteta, a political science professor at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, said:
“With the midterm elections just two months away, the clock is ticking for President Trump and the Republican Party to offer solutions to the nation’s most pressing problems. A failure to do so will likely result not only in a continued decline in the President’s approval rating but could also put Republican control of the House of Representatives and possibly the U.S. Senate increasingly at risk.”
“Arguably, Trump’s unpopularity is largely a problem of his own making,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Huge majorities of American say that Trump is not handling the war in Iran (68%), inflation (75%) and jobs (63%) well. Of course, these issues are related – Trump’s choice to attack Iran, and subsequent mismanagement of the conflict, have contributed materially to inflation and the soft economy. Moreover, his decisions to take gifts from foreign nations and profit from various businesses while in office appear to have led many Americans to express concerns about corruption in his presidency, as fully two-thirds of Americans (67%) say he hasn’t handled corruption in government well….”
“While a candidate for president in 2024, Trump consistently promised Americans that he, unlike Joe Biden, would tackle the nation’s affordability crisis head-on and begin lowering inflation on day one of his presidency,” Nteta says. “A little more than a year and a half into his presidency, however, Americans continue to experience rising costs for groceries, gas, utilities, health care, and housing with inflation now higher than when Biden left office… If the 2026 midterm election becomes a referendum on the economy and the nation’s affordability crisis, the Republican Party could be facing a serious threat to its control of both houses of Congress.”
–Two months before the midterms, the House passed a critical three-month government funding bill (through Dec. 11), sending it to President Trump’s desk and successfully quashing the likelihood of a politically risky shutdown ahead of Election Day.
The House vote was 370-48. The Senate voted earlier by a 90-6 margin.
—Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) easily defeated a much younger challenger Tuesday in Massachusetts’ Democratic Senate primary.
Markey, 80, topped Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in a 76%-24% vote. He will face Republican John Deaton in November, Markey heavily favored.
—The U.S. Postal Service is poised to launch a hastily built, error riddled computer system that could jeopardize the process of mail voting relied upon by one-third of all voters, according to a whistleblower statement released Tuesday by Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal.
The effort is part of the implementation of President Donald Trump’s executive order limiting mail voting and has been temporarily halted by a federal judge. The ruling is being appealed by the administration and the directive may ultimately end up back before the U.S. Supreme Court.
The disclosure from the unidentified whistleblower contends that the Postal Service has been scrambling to try to build a complex system that would normally take a year or more in only three months, sometimes in defiance of the judge’s orders halting work. The goal is to have it ready for use in the midterm elections. The disclosure contends that, due to the new procedures, a single scanning error in the batch of tens of thousands of ballot envelopes could prevent any from reaching voters.
The Postal Service said Tuesday it pledged to work with Congress and the courts.
Thursday, the administration asked the Supreme Court to reject the order by the federal judge.
North Carolina was to begin sending out ballots Friday.
Let the Games begin! Ugh.
—Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth blocked promotions of four Army officers picked for promotion to one-star rank, some of whom have ties to top Army generals the Pentagon chief ousted earlier this year.
Some of the officers pulled from the list have links to former Army Chief of Staff, Gen. Randy George, who Hegseth removed in April, and to Gen. Chris Donahue, the commander of the U.S. Army Europe and Africa who was ousted by the defense secretary in June, a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters told The Hill.
“Military promotions are given to those who have earned them. This has always been the case under Secretary Hegseth and will not change,” Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell told The Hill in a statement last Friday.
Earlier this year, Hegseth intervened and removed four Army officers – two women and two Black men – from a one-star general promotion list to the dismay of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and other service branch officials.
Driscoll, an ally of Vice President Vance who developed a close working relationship with George, was looking to leave by end of the year, as I wrote in last week’s ‘Week in Review.’
Driscoll then submitted his resignation on Monday.
Hegseth was said to be considering Parnell to succeed Driscoll as Army Secretary.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.), a lame-duck moderate who often bucks his party, stepped up his criticism of Hegseth’s leadership of the Pentagon on Wednesday and called on Trump to replace him as secretary.
“I urge the President to find a new leader at the Pentagon who will retain and empower our military talent rather than diminish it,” Tillis wrote on X.
—The USS Abraham Lincoln sailed past Singapore on Sunday as it headed home after a grueling deployment in the Middle East. It stopped in Thailand’s Laem Chabang after a record 286 days at sea, amid reports of mental health concerns and deteriorating conditions on board. Frankly, the vessel looked like crap.
The Lincoln is slated to be in port for five days [Uh oh], allowing for rest and recovery, before returning to its U.S. base.
—President Trump said “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker will be reported to the Federal Communications Commission over her coverage of his endorsements ahead of the midterm elections.
“Kristen Welker, the Unpopular ‘Hostess’ of the once great Meet the Press, now considered Meet the Fake Press, just stated that Donald Trump has ‘mixed results’ on his Endorsements of Candidates, when the recent WINS of Darline Graham and Mike Mazzei, stand at 100% for the U.S. Senate, and 98% for the U.S. House,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday.
Trump added: “Because of this purposeful inaccuracy, she will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment. Unfortunately, she is not the only one.”
NBC News told USA TODAY that “Kristen is one of the best in the business and we stand by her” in an Aug. 30 statement.
Trump does have a strong 2026 endorsement record, but some candidates he supported lost recent primaries.
—Congo’s Ebola outbreak has killed more than 3,000 people out of over 6,100 confirmed cases, the latest government data showed Wednesday, as the disease is spreading at an unprecedented speed, faster than efforts to track and slow it.
Data from Congo’s Ministry of Health showed the outbreak has recorded 6,186 confirmed cases, including 3,007 deaths since it was declared in mid-May. It remains the fastest-growing outbreak of Ebola ever.
The disease has continued to spread rapidly for several reasons, including conflict in the eastern region of the country where the outbreak is concentrated, attacks on health workers, miners constantly on the move, and inadequate health infrastructure.
The resumption of school in the middle of the outbreak has also raised concerns about transmission in classrooms.
The World Health Organization said the outbreak is on track to exceed the deadliest on record, West Africa’s regional outbreak between 2014 and 2016, which killed 11,000 people.
—Devastating flash flooding at the Grand Canyon last weekend left at least two people dead, one missing, according to the National Park Service. More than 60 people had been evacuated.
Almost all of the footbridges spanning Bright Angel Canyon were destroyed, cutting off hiker access, the park service said. The Colorado River was closed to river traffic due to debris in the water.
The flooding caused “extensive damage to inner canyon infrastructure,” including a waterline, which supplies the park, officials said. The park then implemented stage 4 water restrictions on the South Rim, shuttering some overnight accommodations, turning off water spigots and prohibiting fires in some areas.
—Enormous flash floods created last Wednesday by a falling slab of glacier along Nepal’s border with Tibet has left at least 1,270 dead as of Thursday, while more than 4,700 were reported missing. The number of missing skyrocketed after officials realized around 1,000 people were unaccounted for, after hydroelectric producers reported their tally of workers missing from projects in the region. At least 12 hydropower projects in Nepal were damaged.
[China’s own toll for the missing in Tibet’s Gyirong County began to rise as well.}
To get to those workers, rescue teams have to dig through dense mud and debris, then bore through thick tunnel doors or walls, or blast them open with explosives. Even once they’re in, the tunnels themselves are often filled with sludge swept in by the flood.
One of Asia’s poorest economies, Nepal faces a daunting reconstruction effort at a time when its also being squeezed by higher fuel costs due to the Iran war, as well as weaker tourism and slowing growth.
—The world has failed in its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the UN said on Wednesday.
A decade ago, most of the world’s countries agreed in Paris to try to limit global temperature rise to “well below” two degrees Celsius while aiming for the more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
But Wednesday’s 141-page UN report warmed that the world is certain to breach that mark and should focus on finding ways to limit “overshoot” and eventually bring global temperatures back down.
The damage from global warming is now felt across the planet, with intensifying heat, drought, floods, fire and other threats to humans, animals and plants.
Separately, the World Meteorological Organization said the still-developing El Nino weather pattern could be the strongest for more than 70 years and last until at least February 2027.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned: “El Nino has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.”
In the Pacific’s key monitoring region, surface temperatures have been well over 2C above average in recent weeks, putting it on track to be declared a “very strong” event.
But it is expected to surpass even that market. Monthly sea surface temperatures could get close to 4C above average, forecasts suggest.
—NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope – the space agency’s newest orbital observatory – promises unprecedented wide-angle views of the cosmos, including distant galaxies, black holes and planets that may resemble those in our own solar system.
Roman, as it’s called, successfully launched from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on Aug. 30.
Like its predecessors the Hubble and James Webb space telescopes, Roman will try to solve some of astronomy’s biggest questions. It will examine the nature of dark energy, the distribution of dark matter and how common planets are throughout the Milky Way.
What makes Roman unique is its wide-angle vision and powerful infrared instruments that give it an extraordinary field of view. It will capture images with Hubble-like sharpness, but its primary camera can observe an area of space at least 100 times larger than Hubble can see in a single image.
The telescope is named after Dr. Nancy Grace Roman, NASA’s first chief astronomer and a pioneering scientist often called the “Mother of Hubble.”
Instead of orbiting Earth, Roman will operate near a point in space known as the Sun-Earth L2 (Lagrange Point 2). That’s located about 930,000 miles beyond Earth on the side opposite the sun.
During its mission, Roman could measure light from more than a billion galaxies and discover thousands of new worlds beyond our solar system.
Roman’s telescope will allow scientists to look very far back in time because the light captured by the camera has been traveling for billions of years before reaching the instrument. Seeing the universe in its early stages will help unravel how it has expanded throughout its history. This will give scientists hints about how the universe may continue to evolve.
Roman’s images will have the same crisp resolution as Hubble’s, but each one will capture a patch of sky at least 100 times larger. Over the first five years of observations, Roman will capture more than 50 times as much sky as Hubble covered in 30 years.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“A SpaceX rocket on Sunday morning launched a new NASA telescope that will provide the best and most expansive view of the universe that humanity has had. Amid all the anxiety on Earth, this is cause for applause….
“The Roman telescope is…expected to locate more planets beyond our solar system, some which could hold life like our own. Most exciting is what this view of the heavens might discover that is unexpected.
“Such discoveries are valuable for their own sake, but they also yield benefits that inevitably make life better on our own planet. In our current era of political discord and economic pessimism, we can use some optimism about human achievement. Congratulations to SpaceX and NASA on a successful launch, and we look forward to the pictures.”
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4434…Silver $66.20
Oil (WTI) $91.20…Brent $96.00
Regular Gas: $4.14; Diesel: $5.85 [$3.20 – $3.71 yr. ago]
Bitcoin: $79,817 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Returns for the week 8/31-9/4
Dow Jones -0.3% [53414]
S&P 500 +0.1% [7718]
S&P MidCap +0.1%
Russell 2000 +0.1%
Nasdaq +0.4% [26506]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-9/4/26
Dow Jones +11.1%
S&P 500 +12.8%
S&P MidCap +14.5%
Russell 2000 +19.9%
Nasdaq +14.1%
Hang in there. Have a safe holiday weekend.
If you have not done so yet, check out my “Hot Spots” link for a timeline of the tragic events of 9/11/01. Next Friday is going to be very sad here in the New York area, for starters.
Brian Trumbore
