Wed., Sept. 9, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Sept. 9…regular $4.22…diesel $5.94 [record]
‘Regular’ is up 7 cents since Tuesday. Diesel keeps rising.
Oil surged today, to $96 on WTI and $101 on Brent, after we had a sharp escalation in military exchanges between Iran and the U.S.
Iran said it fired ballistic missiles at a base in Jordan used by the U.S. and attacked 10 ships on Wednesday.
The attacks came after the U.S. said it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers.
“Iran continues to try to hit U.S. naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they’re going to lose tankers,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters during a visit to Colombia.
Regarding the alleged Iranian attacks on 10 ships, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it hit two U.S. vessels and eight oil tankers, attempting to cross a “prohibited and unsafe” area of the Strait of Hormuz. A maritime security source reported a liquefied natural gas tanker was damaged in the Emirati port of Khor Fakkan, though it was unclear who was responsible.
Back to the oil price, purchases from China are helping on the demand side as the country restocks its dwindling oil and fuel inventories after limiting imports of more expensive product this year due to the war in Iran.
And when it comes to distillates (heating oil / diesel), the price of heating oil hit a new high as refineries grapple with increasingly constrained refined-product supplies. [And you see the price of diesel above, also a record.] Demand could increase as seasonal agricultural activity picks up, while the approaching winter heating season could add to pressure on distillate supplies.
U.S. refineries were already operating at 98% of capacity in the week ended Aug. 28, leaving limited room to further increase distillate production. EIA data also showed that U.S. distillate fuel stocks were 14% below the five-year average in late August.
This is a problem, sports fans.
In an exchange with reporters this afternoon before traveling to Dallas for the midterm Republican convention, President Trump said that oil prices won’t likely come down until after the elections.
He added that he believes Iran will finally relent after the pivotal midterms are held.
“I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump said.
The president at the outset of the war said it would last a matter of weeks. The war is now in its seventh month.
Separately, the U.S. Treasury tripled the initial size of its next buyback of longer-dated government debt, in an announcement that was met with initial disappointment by investors.
The Treasury Department said it will buy up to $6 billion of outstanding securities set to mature in the 10- and 20-year sector. It’s the first such operation under an expanded buybacks program that showcases Secretary Scott Bessent’s resolve to stem the recent rise in borrowing costs.
Dealers had ramped up predictions for Thursday’s buyback operation after Bessent publicly touted the potential for purchases of over $4 billion, upsized from the originally scheduled $2 billion cap. The Treasury chief on Tuesday reiterated that while he cannot alter the “equilibrium” price of Treasuries, his objective was to slow moves down and prevent any damaging narrative taking hold in the world’s biggest bond market.
But yields rose as traders were underwhelmed. Steven Zeng, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, told Bloomberg, “It’s like Treasury created this monster that it now has to keep feeding.”
The Treasury said the maximum purchase size for the six other scheduled buybacks of long-dated nominal Treasuries in the current fiscal quarter would be equal to or greater than $4 billion.
Stocks fell as oil rose…as did bond yields. Not a recipe for success.
Producer price index tomorrow.
—
Dow Jones -405…-0.8% [52380]
S&P 500 -37…-0.5% [7636]
Nasdaq -168…-0.6% [26253]
Oil (WTI) $96.65…Brent $101.45
Gold $4400
Silver $67.25
Bitcoin: $78,227 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-year. 4.42%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.83%…not good for mortgage rates, kids….
Japanese 10-yr. 2.87%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
