Mon., Oct. 12, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Oct. 12…regular $4.35…diesel $6.27
After the stunning announcement from President Trump late Friday afternoon that he had cut a deal for diesel with Vladimir Putin and suspended sanctions against Russia, after having signed the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s legislation strengthening the sanctions, President Trump on Sunday then posted on Truth Social:
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”
Well, while Ukrainian President Zelensky said he’d agree to a ceasefire if Putin did, Russia continued attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Crude oil then rose above $93.50 on Monday, as renewed attacks in both Ukraine and the Middle East again heightened supply concerns.
Tensions intensified in Saudi Arabia, where authorities reported further drone and cruise missile attacks following a deadly weekend strike on Riyadh’s airport. The Saudi-led coalition also reported additional attacks linked to Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.
Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz raised additional concerns over shipping security, despite crude exports from the Persian Gulf remaining relatively strong.
But regarding the suspension of sanctions and the diesel deal, European officials warned that Trump is only boosting Russia’s war effort.
Top European Union diplomat Kaja Kallas called on the U.S. to put sanctions in place to help finish the war and reduce the effects of attacks on refineries.
The EU endorsed penalties on more than 1,600 people and companies accused of aiding Russia’s war against Ukraine, the bloc’s largest sanctions package to date.
But the EU’s effort can only go so far if the U.S. isn’t also on board.
“If US would be aligned” with EU sanctions on Russia, Kallas said, “we could really put the pressure so that Russia will finish this war.”
“This [diesel] deal doesn’t help neither the crisis of the oil products nor the unity within the transatlantic community,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kesutis Budrys. “It is not the European way.”
And Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski questioned whether Russia could deliver at all. Citing his embassy’s reports of fuel shortages even in Moscow, and “serious sources” saying Ukraine has damaged about half of Russia’s refining capacity, he asked on X: “So where will the surpluses for export come from?”
In an interview with Bloomberg, Sikorski said: “We appreciate President Trump’s involvement in trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war. But in Poland we believe that it’ll bear fruit if you put pressure on the aggressor and not on the victim.”
—
The U.S. bond market was closed today for the holiday, but across the pond, the spread continued to widen between German and French 10-year bonds, and also French and Italian 10-year paper.
Take a look at this comparison, just picking a random date from earlier in the year. [10-year yields]
4/24/26
Germany 2.99%
France 3.64%
Italy 3.78%
10/12/26
Germany 3.47%
France 4.90%
Italy 4.57%
Rather remarkable that French debt is considered riskier than the Italian variety, let alone the widening spread between France and Germany.
Regarding stocks, today marked the 4-year anniversary of the current bull market and these are the returns since Oct. 12, 2022.
Dow Jones +78%
S&P 500 +118%
Nasdaq +162%
Today…
Dow Jones +195…+0.4% [51850]
S&P 500 -4…-0.1% [7807]
Nasdaq -120…-0.4% [27245]
Oil (WTI) $93.30…Brent $106.20
Gold $4165
Silver $60.20
Bitcoin: $82,805 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.79%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.24%
Japanese 10-yr. 3.00%
Back Tues.
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Brian Trumbore
