Thurs., Oct. 22, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Oct. 22…regular $4.27…diesel $6.30
Crude prices at the pump have stabilized at high levels as the midterms approach, much to the chagrin of Donald Trump and the GOP. But oil (WTI) touched $100 at 2:00 (Brent trading over $113, nearing a four-year high), amid concerns the Middle East conflict is escalating as it was reported the U.S. and Israel have developed plans to strike Iran after the November 3rd vote.
The attack apparently would be short, but furious, with U.S. and Israeli leaders, at least the decision makers, believing one more decisive blow would topple the regime. But prior attacks didn’t do so, why would this one?
Compounding matters, Iran said today that its navy hit seven oil tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed in a statement to have hit four tankers that were transferring oil. The other three ships hit naval mines and were immobilized as a result, but this wasn’t confirmed, that I saw.
If it was, it would mark the largest single-day incident involving vessels in the waterway since the start of the war in February.
Yesterday, the U.S. did order non-essential personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing the escalating tensions with the Iran-aligned Houthis on civilian targets.
And in the last two days the Houthis attacked a civilian airport at Damman that resulted in casualties, one dead, while a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field killed two people but left operations unaffected.
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Nasdaq took it on the chin today on renewed AI financing concerns, and it was another down day for CoreWeave*, while Treasuries continued to rally on the Risk-off trade, plus, as I noted a few weeks ago, at a certain level the 10-year, when trading over 5.00%, such as 5.36% (intraday), is attractive and buyers come in. Like nothing wrong with a 5.00% yield, boys and girls. [Though because of the U.S. having to pay interest on $40 trillion in debt, and growing, and our own debt crisis, funding of entitlements and the like, longer-term, our rates are headed higher.]
*CoreWeave (an AI hyperscaler…cloud-computing company) was down another 10% to $55. Last October 29, it was $140.
Meanwhile, I mentioned yesterday how the yield on the French 10-year crossed 5.00% yesterday for the first time since 2002, and today it closed at 5.07%, and the spread between the French 10-year and the German 10-year widened further.
So, as I did the other week, I’ll pick a random date from 2025 to show you what a more normal spread between the French and German 10-year bonds had been, and throw in Italy, which was always considered a lower credit than France. And then look at today.
6/6/25…10-year yields
Germany 2.57%
France 3.24%
Italy 3.50%
10/22/26
Germany 3.33%
France 5.07%
Italy 4.57%
From 67 basis points between German and French paper on 6/6/25, to 174 bps today! And Italy now seen as a better credit than France? Who wudda thunk it?
But just as the U.S. has a major issue on the entitlement side, France’s is even worse. They must raise the retirement age, and the people need to be convinced it won’t be the end of the world. No need to riot.
But that’s called political leadership, of which there is little, globally, these days.
Dow Jones +11…+0.02% [52867]
S&P 500 -93…-1.2% [7663]
Nasdaq -694…-2.6% [26008]
Oil (WTI) $99.35…Brent $113.20
Gold $4025
Silver $54.65
Bitcoin: $81,407 [4:00 PM ET…ugly day…]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.65%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.96%…massive rally in the 2- and 10-yr. today….
Japanese 10-yr. 2.85%…nice rally off the multi-decade high of about 3.10%.
Check out my Week in Review, posted Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
