China and Taiwan, Part I

China and Taiwan, Part I

The Wall Street Journal”s Gerald Seib recently listed some

questions that ought to be asked of our presidential candidates.

One of them was, how many China”s are there? Seib then

commented, “Mess up this question, and a president can start a

war.”

The issue of Taiwan and China, and the U.S. stance, has

reentered the political dialogue thanks to a statement made a few

weeks back by Taiwan”s president, Lee Teng-hui. Lee stated that

Taiwan should have “special state-to-state relations” with China.

China viewed this statement with grave concern. Clearly, Lee

was calling for independence for his island nation. China, as

national policy, advocates “One China,” meaning that

reunification of the two is inevitable. Lee”s statement was thus

tantamount to an act of war. The U.S. also holds to a “One

China” policy, but the hope has always been that this would be

achieved through peaceful means.

But let”s take a quick step back and try and understand how we

arrived at this current state of tension between the two China”s.

Someday, I”ll go in far greater detail of the history of China (it

would be a 5 or 6-parter) but for now we”ll cover some of the

basics.

In the late 1920”s through the 1940”s China was a mess. Imagine

a civil war taking place between a peasant army led by Mao Tse-

tung (or Zedong in the modern vernacular), the Communists, and

the ruling Kuomintang, or Nationalist party, under the leadership

of Chiang Kai-shek. By 1931, Japan became the third player as it

invaded China. Chiang was trying to use the Communists to help

in his fight against Japan while at the same time destroying them.

[Confusing? Yes.]

At the end of World War II, Japan”s forces had to withdraw,

leaving the Communists and Nationalists to battle it out. Mao

was a brilliant strategist and, despite a lack of basic resources, his

peasant army was disciplined and became expert at living off the

land. Chiang was the total opposite. Despite support from FDR

during the first phases of the civil war, and later support from

Truman and the other major Western leaders, Chiang was a

despicable, corrupt leader who squandered the $2.5 billion in aid

that the U.S. gave him between 1945 and 1949. He had been

presented to Americans as a savior of a united, democratic China.

Efforts to reconcile the Nationalists with the Communists failed

and, once the civil war started in earnest, the aid began to dry up.

By April 1949 Mao was in control of many of the major

provinces and soon thereafter Chiang was driven out of the

mainland onto the island of Formosa (Taiwan) where he

established the Republic of China (ROC). *Chiang pilfered the

country”s treasury, including the last 3 mm ounces of gold in

China”s reserve. When Chiang arrived on Taiwan, he led a

violent crackdown on the population that by some estimates killed

20,000-30,000.

In Beijing on September 21, 1949 Mao declared the People”s

Republic of China (PRC). Then, just two days later, President

Harry Truman announced, “We have evidence an atomic

explosion occurred in the USSR.” Historian Paul Johnson writes,

“The events fused on the public mind as the march of a single

conspiracy.” Truman had been accused by the Republicans of

having “lost China.” Now, we had the twin threats. Everyone

you saw on the streets of America could be a Communist.

It became the judgment of many that traitors in America had

given Stalin the bomb and fellow travelers in the State

Department had allowed his puppet Mao to defeat Chiang”s

Nationalists. It was also felt that Mao would quickly fall under the

sphere of Soviet influence. [In the hindsight of history, it wasn”t

that easy. Yugoslavia”s Tito had split with Stalin in 1948, lending

some hope that Mao and Stalin may not become allies. The press

focused, however, on a two-month stay by Mao in Moscow in

early 1950. It was assumed that Mao and Stalin were meeting

daily. In actuality, Stalin kept Mao waiting for two months and

Mao had become seriously ill while in Moscow].

In a speech in January 1950, U.S. Secretary of State Dean

Acheson spoke of the new line of containment and mentioned that

he felt it was certain that Stalin and Mao would quarrel but he

didn”t mention Taiwan, Indochina and Korea, appearing to

exclude them from the American defensive perimeter. The speech

was read by Stalin who was making some conciliatory overtures

to Mao. Acheson”s reference to an inevitable Russo-Chinese

break reminded Stalin of the danger, and his apparent omission of

Korea as an American vital interest pointed to the remedy. Stalin

decided that a limited proxy war in Korea would be the means to

teach China where its true interest lay.

Stalin seems to have agreed with North Korea”s Communist

dictator, Kim Il Sung, that the North could make a limited push

across the38th parallel, which divided Communist North from

non-Communist South Korea. But Kim took Stalin”s hint as

permission to stage a full-scale invasion and he launched it on the

25th of June 1950.

As a result of the invasion, Taiwan became a large issue and the

U.S. adopted a firm stance. The Truman-Acheson East Asia

policy of January 1950 failed to deter looming aggression. Mao

had initially talked of a timetable for acquiring Taiwan. He

retreated from that position and with the outbreak of the Korean

War, and China”s subsequent involvement, the world saw a clear

cut need to deter Mao. As historian Johnson says, “While

nothing was gained in the Korean War, America at least

demonstrated its willingness to defend the policy of containment

in battle.”

In the 1950”s China”s bark was bigger than its bite. It was the

American military link with Taiwan and with Japan that deterred

Beijing from acting on its ambition to grab Taiwan. In the 1960”s

events in Indochina took center stage. By 1971 the world

received word that President Nixon was going to China in early

1972.

Next week, Nixon”s overture to China and the impact on Taiwan.

[Sources: Gerald Seib, Wall Street Journal – Aug.25, 1999.

Ross Terrill, The Weekly Standard – Aug. 23, 1999.

Paul Johnson, “A History of the American People.”

Harold Evans, “The American Century.”]

Brian Trumbore