Wednesday, February 11, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Stocks were mixed* following this morning’s jobs report for January from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which saw employers adding a better-than-expected 130,000 jobs, when 70,000 was expected (other reports have the consensus at 55,000…yours truly uses Trading Economics data). The unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent a month earlier. December’s jobs figure was seasonally adjusted to just 48,000.
*Oops, S&P fell a fraction of a point.
So the peppier data is a sign that the labor market might be emerging from a period of extremely slow growth brought on by a trade war that made companies hesitant to hire, an immigration crackdown that lowered the number of available workers and a federal government firing spree.
Annual revisions to earlier data changed the picture of last year. The economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 584,000.
For 2024, the U.S. produced only 1.2 million jobs, versus the previously estimated 2 million.
Heath care accounted for more than half of job gains in January, adding 82,000 positions. Construction gained 33,000 jobs, but most other sectors were flat, and the federal government shed another 35,000 positions.
Average hourly earnings rose by 3.7% year-over-year, same as the prior month.
There is a seasonal quirk in that sluggish hiring of seasonal workers during the holidays may have boosted the number, as fewer were then laid off in January.
A minute before the jobs release at 8:30 AM ET, the 2-year Treasury was at 3.45% and the 10-year 4.12%, and a minute after, the two had surged to 3.54% and 4.20%, respectively, as traders took the stronger number to mean not as many rate cuts down the road as expected just minutes earlier. Yields then recovered a bit the rest of the day.
The February jobs report is slated to be released before the Fed meets next to set interest rates, in mid-March.
Crude oil rose after the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration had discussed seizing additional tankers involved in transporting illicit Iranian oil.
As part of a continuing blockade on Venezuela, the U.S. has already seized several ‘shadow tankers’ carrying Iranian oil to buyers such as China.
Talks continue between American and Iranian officials over Tehran’s nuclear program.
This afternoon, after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated. If it can, I let the Prime Minister know that will be a preference. If it cannot, we will just have to see what the outcome will be. Last time Iran decided that they were better off not making the Deal, and they were hit with Midnight Hammer – That did not work well for them. Hopefully this time they will be more reasonable and responsible.”
Lastly, the U.S. government posted a $95 billion budget deficit in January, down $34 billion or 26% from a year earlier as revenue gains including customs duties outpaced growth in outlays, the Treasury Dept. said this afternoon.
Through the first four months of the 2026 fiscal year that started Oct. 1, the deficit fell to $697 billion, down $143 billion or 17% from the same period of fiscal 2025. Year-to-date receipts are up 12% from the prior year period, while outlays rose 2%.
Net tariffs totaled $27.7 billion in January, about the same level as December.
Year-to-date Treasury debt interest totaled $426 billion, a record for the period, up $34 billion or 9%.
Dow Jones -66…-0.1% [50121]
S&P 500 -0.36…-0.01% [6941]
Nasdaq -36…-0.2% [23066]
Oil (WTI) $64.90
Gold $5110
Silver $84.35
Bitcoin $67,549 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.51%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.17%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.22%.
Back tomorrow, Thursday.
Brian Trumbore
