Tuesday, February 17, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Stocks finished marginally higher following Monday’s holiday…actually, all three major indexes up a whopping 0.1%.
Big week, potentially…specifically Friday with the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), as well as a first look at fourth-quarter GDP (finally). Consensus is for 3%, down from 4.4% in Q3.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, a permanent voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, said on Tuesday another central bank interest rate cut could come somewhere well down the road amid ongoing risks to the U.S. inflation outlook.
“Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time as we assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Barr said in the text of a speech before a gathering in New York.
“The prudent course for monetary policy right now is to take the time necessary to assess conditions as they evolve,” Barr said, adding “I would like to see evidence that goods price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market conditions remain stable.”
Barr said that while it is reasonable to expect that the tariff pressures that have driven up inflation will abate, the price pressure situation remains one of concern.
“There are many reasons to be concerned that inflation will remain elevated,” he said. “I see the risk of persistent inflation above our 2% target as significant, which means we need to remain vigilant.”
Barr also noted in his remarks that the job market has stabilized, but at the same time, the hiring situation is in a “delicate balance” and “the labor market could be especially vulnerable to negative shocks.”
Tough day for gold and silver and with China’s markets closed this week for Lunar New Year celebrations, liquidity is a potential issue.
Dow Jones +32…0.1% [49533]
S&P 500 +7…0.1% [6843]
Nasdaq +31…0.1% [22578]
Oil (WTI) $62.30
Gold $4880
Silver $73.40
Bitcoin $67,788 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.43%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.05%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.12%
Japan’s 10-year yield fell from Friday’s 2.21% level, hitting its lowest mark in over a month following a well-received auction of 5-year notes, as concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook continued to ease. Political uncertainty has been reduced as well following Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide victory in the general election.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also said that Takaichi made no specific requests during their regular meeting on Monday, reassuring markets that she is unlikely to interfere with the BOJ’s policy normalization plans.
Back tomorrow, Wed.
Brian Trumbore
