Thursday, February 19, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
First…this sports flash from the Winter Olympics…ten minutes ago…the U.S. Women defeated Canada for the gold in hockey, in overtime, 2-1. You go, Girls!!! [This after tying it up late in regulation on a goal by captain Hillary Knight.]
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rallied to over $66 today, which if we close at that level Friday would be the first weekly close at $66 or higher since Aug. 1st. Still about rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran that threaten supply from the Middle East. Reports citing government officials noted that the U.S. could begin a military operation in the Middle East soon, with Israel pushing for regime change in Tehran. The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned Iran’s window for a diplomatic deal is narrowing amid the U.S. military buildup.
It’s about any conflict threatening flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which sees tanker activity representing about one-third of seaborne oil trade. Also, a fresh report from the EIA showed that oil inventories in the U.S. plummeted by 9 million barrels on the second week of February, when a build of 2 million barrels was expected.
President Trump’s State of the Union Address is next Tuesday, and I can’t imagine him pulling the trigger before then. But stocks had a rough time of it today largely on Iran fears.
We have some key economic data on Friday. Finally, the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer, in its final reading today, took its own estimate down to 3.0%, which is exactly the consensus reading. It was just three weeks ago that the GDPNow figure was 5.4% and heavily touted by the White House.
The culprit for the latest decline was the trade deficit for December, released today, that showed the deficit widened to $70.3 billion from $53 billion in November, above forecasts. Considering full 2025, the U.S. recorded a $901.5 billion trade deficit, slightly less than a $903.5 billion gap in 2024 and still among the largest since 1960.
[But the trade deficit is just one component in the calculation of GDP, though for today, the most obvious one.]
Also tomorrow, we receive the December personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, which on core, ex-food and energy, the money ball, is expected to rise 2.9%, a tick above November’s annualized pace.
Treasuries rallied a little today, both on a flight to safety amid the Iran tensions, as well as some traders expecting core PCE to be lower than expected, which would help the ‘bull’ case for future rate cuts by the Open Market Committee.
One more…Freddie Mac releases its weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate on Thursdays, and it was down to 6.01%, lowest since Sept. 2022, which is good.
Dow Jones -267…-0.5% [49395]
S&P 500 -19…-0.3% [6861]
Nasdaq -70…-0.3% [22682]
Oil (WTI) $66.65
Gold $5015
Silver $78.40
Bitcoin $67,147…[4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.46%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.07%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.13%
Check out my Week in Review, Friday, posted around 4:30 PM ET. Have a good weekend.
Brian Trumbore
