Thursday, February 26, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose above $66 per barrel Thursday morning, after Iranian state media said Tehran would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country. The comments underscored tensions in ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva today.
Omani mediators said after the first 3-hour session that the talks were constructive, but Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is as well-sourced as anyone, said Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Presidential Advisor Jared Kushner expressed disappointment with Iranian Foreign minster Abbas Araghchi’s position during negotiations.
However, following the evening session, Barak Ravid reported things were more “positive.”
Oil remains torn between expectations of a global supply glut and rising Middle East risks. At the same time, Saudi exports are nearing a three-year high, and flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have also risen. There is an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where a modest output hike for April is under consideration.
The New York Times noted what each side is looking to accomplish Thursday: “In the talks, Iran must convince Americans that it has no intention to weaponize its nuclear program and also give Mr. Trump enough leeway to claim he achieved more than his predecessors ever did in dealing with Iran. The U.S., in turn, has to incentivize Iran with some tangible rewards, like lifting both the threat of war and economic sanctions on Iran’s international banking and oil sales that have contributed to the near collapse of its economy.”
That of course keeps the regime alive, and do we really want to, especially after killing an estimated 30,000+ of their citizens in the recent protests, a figure used by multiple sources?
On a different topic, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine is concerned the White House’s National Defense Strategy “underplayed the threat posed by China and the U.S. military’s need to prepare for a future conflict in the Indo-Pacific,” CNN reported Wednesday.
“Caine hand-delivered memos to [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth and the Pentagon’s policy chief Elbridge Colby outlining his disagreements over the new National Defense Strategy that Colby’s office had drafted,” a source told CNN.
Caine’s reported reservations over the NDS are surfacing amid parallel reports about his advice regarding possible U.S. military strikes against Iran. Axios, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times recently relayed reports of Caine’s concerns that a new war could be more prolonged and damaging than some Iran hawks in Washington are willing to publicly admit. [Defense One]
–Following Nvidia’s reported earnings and guidance that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations after the close Wednesday, you’d think the shares would rise a bit, but instead they fell 5% today. Software shares, however, which have been beaten up, rallied. It’s been a crazy, up and down, week for various sectors…all AI story related.
—Freddie Mac reported this afternoon that its 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.98%, the first time below 6.00% since Sept. 2022.
–We have an important report on January producer prices tomorrow.
Dow Jones +17…+0.03% [49499]
S&P 500 -37…-0.5% [6908]
Nasdaq -273…-1.2% [22878]
Oil (WTI) $65.45
Gold $5215
Silver $88.70
Bitcoin $67,360 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.44%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.01%…hasn’t closed below 4.00% since November of last year….
Japanese 10-yr. 2.14%…up six basis points last two days…if it keeps rising, it WILL impact our Treasury market at some point, as it already did months ago when it began its rise from essentially 1.00%.
Check out my Week in Review column…posted Fridays around 4:30 PM ET.
Have a good weekend.
Brian Trumbore
