Monday, March 2, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Today was the first chance for global equity markets to respond to the events in Iran and the Gulf region. Sunday, commodities markets had their initial reaction and oil prices jumped, and maintained the gains into Monday morning, 7% to 8% on both West Texas Intermediate and Brent, with gasoline up 5%. We should expect gasoline at the pump, $2.99 on regular nationwide per AAA, to rise over $3.00 Tuesday, which is kind of a magic number, certainly politically, and we’ll see how things progress the rest of the week.
Air travel in the Middle East is an absolute mess. Thousands of flights were cancelled Sat., Sun., and today at major hubs, such as Dubai, which was the world’s busiest airport in 2024 (last available data) with 92 million passengers, according to Airports Council International, ahead of London’s Heathrow by 13 million. Doha ranked 10th.
Both airline stocks and cruise companies saw their shares plummet at the open Monday, especially those airlines such as United, American and Delta with large overseas exposures.
In Europe, the likes of Lufthansa and British Airways took a hit, let alone Middle East airlines with their airspace and airports shut down, tens of thousands of travelers stranded. Jordan became the latest country in the region to partially close its airspace.
The conflict in the Middle East widened and escalated overnight Sunday as Hezbollah entered the fight, Israel then striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after the Iran-backed militant group fired its own rockets in retaliation over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, death toll rising.
I have a friend in Beirut, a noted editor and historian, and Michael and I exchanged brief messages Sunday night. “Stay safe, Michael,” I wrote. “Thank you, Brian,” was his quick reply. There was no need for either of us to say more. He doesn’t live in the neighborhood being bombed by Israel, but I know the place well. Back during the Lebanese Civil War, Michael and his friends would sit on a rooftop bar and observe the fighting over adult beverages.
As of this morning, the U.S. and Israel had struck some 2,000 targets in Iran since the campaign began, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
But back to oil, as you all know by now, and hopefully every American schoolchild is being taught the same, about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the narrow Strait of Hormuz and at least three tankers had been hit last I saw, either in or around the Strait, with most shipping companies closing operations and telling their tankers to drop anchor before entering the area. [This applies to most tankers, but not all…some are being told to proceed “cautiously,” even as Iran has threatened to strike them.]
A Saudi refinery was partially closed early Monday after being hit by debris following the interception of two drones, Saudi Press Agency reported. A critical LNG facility in Qatar was also hit, halting production at the Ras Laffan complex. Twenty percent of the global LNG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz as well, including significant exports from Qatar.
Meanwhile, over the weekend, the OPEC+ cartel of oil-producing nations agreed to hike output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, ending a three-month pause, following a virtual meeting on Sunday.
There is indeed still a glut of oil worldwide, and it’s why prices for WTI were floundering in the $60 area for weeks prior to the buildup of U.S. forces in the region in preparation for war.
As for the reaction in our equity markets Monday, after a rough start, stocks rallied back, perhaps irrationally so, and finished mixed on the session. The war, and the risks, won’t be over in a day or two. Remember my adage…wait 24 hours….
Dow Jones -73…-0.2% [48904]
S&P 500 +2…+0.04% [6881]
Nasdaq +80…+0.4% [22748]
Oil (WTI) $72.30…up 8%
Gold $5350
Silver $90.40
Bitcoin $69,080 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.48%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.04%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.07%
European bond yields surged on inflation fears, the British 10-year rising from 4.23% to 4.37%.
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
