Monday, March 16, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Mar. 16…reg. $3.71*…diesel $4.98
After hitting $100 on West Texas Intermediate overnight Sunday, oil fell back to the $93-$95 level on word a few tankers were getting through the Strait of Hormuz. But aside from Iranian vessels bound for China, many of the ships, as reported by a Bloomberg expert I respect, were smaller Indian vessels carrying petroleum products used in items like cooking oil, which is a big deal for people in India.
Just remember, when the Strait does reopen, whenever that is, it won’t just return to normal the next day.
That said, there are going to be wild swings in the price, just as we saw last week when oil, again on a Sunday night, March 8, on thin trading, went up to $120, only to fall to as low as $77 two days later on the false story put out by the energy secretary that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait.
Going back to last October through late January, WTI traded in a very narrow range of about $56 to $62. I was writing continuously in my Week in Review columns on the global surplus in crude.
But oil closed the day before the war started at $67 as the U.S. put together its massive force in the Middle East, including two carrier groups.
The conflict isn’t going to just end. There will be a new risk premium built into the price of oil. What that premium is the market will determine. Maybe it’s $10, and crude (WTI) trades around $70. Which these days would be a fair price for everyone…consumers and producers.
But more volatility ahead…each headline a potential market mover, including for equities, such as today, a good one.
Related to all the above is President Trump’s demands for a coalition to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz that appeared to fall on deaf ears on Monday as allies Japan, Australia and Germany said they were not planning to send navy vessels to the Middle East to escort ships through the critical waterway.
Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday he was expecting China to help unblock the Strait before his scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of this month.
“I think China should help too because China gets 90% of its oil from the Straits,” Trump said. “We may delay,” he said, in reference to his visit end of the month if China did not offer support in the Gulf.
Trump also ratcheted up pressure on European allies to help protect the Strait, warning that NATO faces a “very bad” future if its members fail to come to Washington’s aid.
“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the Strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump told the FT, arguing that Europe and China are more heavily dependent on oil from the region than the U.S.
“If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”
China and the U.S. wrapped up their sixth round of trade talks in Paris on Monday, with the agenda ranging from a possible extension of bilateral tariff and non-tariff measures as well as bilateral investment.
“China and the U.S. conducted deep, frank and constructive consultations,” Chinese vice commerce minister Li Chenggang said.
Both sides agreed to “continue to maintain the stability of tariffs” and discussed the possibility of establishing a mechanism for promoting bilateral investment, said Li, one of the lead negotiators in the two days of talks.
He said China noted that the United States had introduced “quite a few” restrictive measures against China on the trade and economy front. [South China Morning Post]
If Trump calls off the Beijing summit, it could have negative ramifications for both trade and the overall relationship. It will depend on the narrative.
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If you are filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket, your editor is going with a men’s Final Four of Duke, Florida, Virginia and Purdue…Purdue winning it all.
On the women’s side…UConn enters the tournament 34-0. But I’ll go with UCLA.
Dow Jones +387…+0.8% [46946]
S&P 500 +67…+1.0% [6699]
Nasdaq +268…+1.2% [22374]
Oil (WTI) $93.50
Gold $5015
Silver $80.95
Bitcoin $73,955 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.68%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.22%…FOMC meeting Tues. and Wed.
Japanese 10-yr. 2.26%…essentially a 27-year high.
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
*I want to briefly address a pet peeve of mine among the financial news press and/or straight news commentators that is increasingly common these days.
Prices of stocks, commodities and bonds are not rounded up. So, for example, AAA this morning had a nationwide price for regular gas of $3.718. If you are putting a commentary or news article together, you don’t say $3.72. It’s $3.71.
When the 10-year Treasury yield is listed at 4.208%, you don’t say the yield is 4.21%…it’s 4.20%.
When the S&P 500 finishes up 15.68 points on the day, you don’t say the S&P rose 16 points, it’s 15.
This is the way it has always been…forever.
Now if you are sharing adult beverages with your friends at the neighborhood watering hole and mixing talk about Gwyneth Paltrow’s Oscar gown and the World Baseball Classic final pitch controversy in the U.S.-Dominican Republic game with Wall Street, do what you want…round it off.
But not on the air or in print for the official record!
Now who wants a beer…I’m buying.
