Wednesday, March 18, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Mar. 18…reg. $3.84…diesel $5.06
It was a down day on Wall Street as WTI crude oil futures rebounded to $99 a barrel in the morning*, before falling back just a bit, following reports of an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest in the world, which is shared with Qatar. Iranian state TV said U.S. and Israeli airstrikes hit South Pars and nearby petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh, marking the first known strike on Iran’s upstream energy infrastructure in this conflict. [The U.S. said it was notified, but didn’t participate, according to late reports….]
*Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit $110, highest since July 2022.
Overnight, Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states continued as Tehran vowed revenge for the killing of security chief Ali Larijani, while Israel said Iranian intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib was killed.
President Trump said the U.S. could end the war with Iran “in the near future.”
Also, Iraq plans to resume exports via a pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, though volumes will cover only a fraction of prewar output.
Separately, API (American Petroleum Institute) data showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week ended March 13th, the most in three weeks, reversing a 1.7 million-barrel drop in the previous week and compared to expectations of a 0.6 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 4.56 million barrels, the fifth week of declines and the biggest drawdown since late October. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, decreased by 1.39 million barrels, following a 2.3 million barrels drop in the previous period. [Source: American Petroleum Institute (API)]
Prior to the Federal Reserve’s statement and Chair Powell’s comments on Fed rate policy today, this morning we had February producer price data and it was not good; well above expectations, with core PPI, ex-food and energy, up 0.5% and 3.9% year-over-year when 3.7% was expected. Headline PPI rose a whopping 0.7% and 3.4% Y/Y.
Hardly the kind of stuff those looking for rate cuts needed to see.
And as expected, the Fed held the line on interest rates, voting 11-1 to keep the federal-funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting.
In new quarterly projections, 12 of 19 meeting participants penciled in at least one cut this year, the same as in December, though several officials penciled in fewer reductions.
In the statement from the FOMC, which was essentially identical to January’s, save for the Middle East wrinkle:
“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”
The rest of the statement was boilerplate. It’s all about the upcoming data, which on the inflation side will be interesting with the energy shock, the next FOMC meeting being April 27-28.
Bond yields rose, between just prior to the Fed’s release at 2:00 p.m. ET and the conclusion of Chair Powell’s presser. Stocks continued their declines, which were substantial by day’s end.
Powell made news by opening up on his future at the Fed, saying he’s not going anywhere until the investigation is over.
“I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.”
And he added he will serve as “chairman pro-tem” until his successor is named as the new Fed chair, assumed to be Kevin Warsh.
Bottom line…none of us know with certainty how the war is going to play out, and, just as importantly, will there be knock-on effects for years to come…which I would bet, of course there will be, in terms of an increased terror threat, for starters, and a greatly changed atmosphere for the Gulf states, impacting investment and the heavy bets they placed on tourism.
I mean how many people know this afternoon that the U.S. Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier is heading to the Greek island of Crete for repairs after a fire broke out in its laundry room the other day…as in so much for one of our two carriers in the region being able to project power in the war.
The USS Gerald R. Ford was strained to the max as it is, having spent months beyond a standard deployment at sea. Sailor morale has been sapped. They haven’t seen their families since last June. And, this is true, there are issues with the plumbing on the ship. As in, issues flushing the toilet, which the Navy blames on sailors not following proper procedures.
Dow Jones -768…-1.6% [46224]
S&P 500 -91…-1.4% [6624]
Nasdaq -327…-1.5% [22152]
Oil (WTI) $98.50
Gold $4850
Silver $75.90
Bitcoin $71,050 [4:00 PM ET]…lousy day for this sapper of energy (in its creation)….
U.S. 2-yr. 3.77%…the most inflation/Fed sensitive…up 8 basis points on the day
U.S. 10-yr. 4.26%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.20%
Back Thurs.
Brian Trumbore
