Monday, March 23, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Mar. 23…reg. $3.95…diesel $5.28
After more mixed messaging over the weekend from the White House on the Iran war, the markets were down big again early this morning; West Texas Intermediate touching $100 a barrel around 4:00 AM ET; Brent, the global benchmark for crude, still around $112. It was looking like an ugly Monday on Wall Street and in Europe, after selling in the Asian markets overnight, with the Tokyo Nikkei and Shanghai Composite both down 3.5%, while South Korea’s super volatile Kospi was off 6.5%.
Around 6:00 AM ET, the U.S. Treasury market was tanking as well. The yield on the 2-year up to 3.99% from Friday’s close of 3.89%, while the 10-year yield was 4.43%, up from 4.39%.
The Dow Jones futures were off about 300 points, after a very rough 4-week stretch for equities.
And then….
Trump on Truth Social, Mon. Mar. 23, 7:23 AM….
“I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”
Stocks soared, bonds rallied (yields fell), oil (WTI and Brent) both collapsed. Brent futures plunged to around $98 per barrel. WTI futures hit $87. Gasoline futures were over $3.30 and plunged to $2.95.
However, Iran’s Fars News Agency denied any negotiations, attributing Trump’s move to Iran’s threat to strike all West Asian power plants.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqher Ghalibaf then slammed Trump’s assertion that the U.S. had “very good and productive talks” with the Islamic Republic about ending the war.
“No negotiations have been held with the U.S., and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped,” Ghalibaf wrote on X.
“Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,” he added. “All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved.”
Israeli officials had named Ghalibaf as Iran’s new point man, claiming he was speaking either directly or indirectly with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
Trump then told reporters this morning from Florida that Iran’s denial was due to miscommunications because of the U.S.-Israeli bombardments that have killed dozens of members of Tehran’s leadership.
“The communication, as you know, has been blown to pieces. They were unable to talk to each other, but we’ve had very strong talks,” Trump said.
“We were planning tomorrow on shooting down some of their power plants…hopefully we won’t have to do it.”
“I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to end up with a deal,” Trump continued. “We’re giving it five days and then we’re going to see where it takes us.”
“At the end of this period it could very well end up being a very good deal for everybody. As good as if we went all the way and just literally annihilated the place, which if we don’t have to do that would be a good thing not a bad thing.”
And…“If it goes well, we’re going to end up settling this. Otherwise, we just keep bombing our little hearts out.”
Iran’s foreign ministry issued a statement: “We deny what U.S. President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The markets soared anyway.
I hope I’m wrong, but I am highly skeptical of all the good vibes today.
By the way, I have a personal experience with Iran. I wanted to go there years ago, just to get good information for this site. To do so, I had to send my passport to the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, who acted as the go between, and my visa was denied, literally one day to go!
But to get to that stage, I had to make a hotel reservation and shell out $450, which was part of the application. The Iranian hotel didn’t return it, the bastards.
I then got my passport back the next day…about six hours before I was leaving for Paris. So, I called Air France and said, rebook me somewhere I haven’t been before for the days I was supposed to be in Tehran. The sweet woman on the other end, with that to die for accent, said ‘How about Morocco?’
Off I went, like the Bing Crosby song (paraphrasing)… ‘I’m off on my way to Morocco…where is it, it’s just south of Spain…’
🙂
Dow Jones +631…+1.4% [46208]
S&P 500 +74…+1.2% [6581]
Nasdaq +299…+1.4% [21946]
Oil (WTI) $88.50…Brent $99.80
Gold $4410…fell to $4100, hitting its weakest levels in four months before the rally…last week gold, in losing more than 10%, had its biggest weekly loss in about 43 years.
Silver $69.05…traded down to $61 before Trump’s post, lowest since mid-Dec., and down from an intraday record-high of $121.
Bitcoin $70,670 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.83%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.33%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.30%…another 27-year high….
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
