Monday, May 18, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., May 18…reg. $4.51…diesel $5.63
Having returned from his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi not offering any help on the conflict with Iran, President Trump posted on Truth Sunday afternoon:
“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
When the futures markets opened Sunday evening, crude oil rose, ditto gasoline futures.
Over the weekend, energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf came under attack, including a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates, adding to concerns over regional stability and potential supply disruptions.
Monday morning, the futures swung to losses after Iranian media reported that the U.S. had proposed a temporary waiver of oil sanctions pending a final agreement. Separate reports also indicated Tehran may be willing to approve a long-term nuclear freeze agreement, though not a full dismantling of its atomic program.
Tehran is also reportedly seeking a gradual peace arrangement with the U.S. and Israel and wants its enriched uranium transferred to Russia rather than the U.S.
According to reports, Iran dropped demands for direct U.S. financial compensation in favor of economic concessions and international guarantees that would allow Tehran to preserve political credibility.
But by late morning, market sentiment shifted after doubts resurfaced about an imminent agreement to restore energy flows through the vital shipping route. According to Axios, Iran submitted an updated proposal, but the White House reportedly considers it insufficient for a deal.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran still views U.S. conditions as overly demanding despite revisions in the latest draft, signaling that the deadlock remains unresolved.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned on Monday that global oil inventories are declining rapidly.
But at 3:01 PM ET, President Trump just posted:
“I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN! Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Oil was trading over $107 prior to the post, and fell off some, but not much.
Meanwhile, while we don’t have any market-moving economic data this week, we do have some key earnings reports.
Nvidia reports after the close on Wednesday, but we also have reports from major retailers Home Depot, Walmart, Target and others that should offer a glimpse at consumer spending trends as households juggle rising utility and gasoline prices and higher prices for groceries.
If gasoline prices stay higher heading into the summer, households would have less money to spend on other items, potentially crimping future retail sales.
—
Dow Jones +159…+0.3% [49686]
S&P 500 -5…-0.1% [7403]
Nasdaq -134…-0.5% [26090]
Oil (WTI) $106.10…Brent $108.90
Gold $4560
Silver $77.40
Bitcoin $76,858 [4:00 PM ET…ugly stretch]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.07%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.60%…highest in a year….
Japanese 10-yr. 2.71%…still rising….
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
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