Monday, May 25, 2026…3:00 PM ET
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., May 25…reg. $4.50…diesel $5.59
I was going to take a day off, with the markets closed, but over the weekend, President Trump and senior officials in the administration said negotiations with Iran were progressing and a final memorandum of understanding might be, emphasize might be, imminent.
Sunday afternoon, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals! President DJT”
Early Monday morning, Trump posted:
“I laugh at all of the Dumocrats, RINOS, and Fools who know nothing about the potential deal I am making with Iran, things that haven’t even been negotiated yet, weak and ineffective people like failed Senator Thom Tillis (Soon out of office!), Bill Cassidy, who just suffered a massive Primary loss, really bad Congressman Thomas Massie, a major sleazebag who lost in a landslide to a great American Patriot (Endorsed by ‘TRUMP’) after showing tremendous disloyalty to his Party (and Country!), and almost all Dumocrats, people that have totally lost their way, constantly supporting bad policy and even worse candidates, but are constantly critical of each and every fantastic win I have. These people should go home and rest, they do nothing but create division and loss. In other words, they are losers! The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal. It will be the exact opposite of the JCPOA disaster negotiated by the failed Obama Administration, which was a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran. No, I don’t do deals like that! President DJT”
Two hours later, Monday morning, Trump posted:
“Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all – Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before – And nobody wants that! During my discussions on Saturday with…[Trump then names all the Middle Eastern leaders he had a call with]…I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords… It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be….”
The president goes on and on and on…
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, addressing reporters in New Delhi Monday, said U.S. and Iranian negotiators have “a pretty solid thing on the table” and a deal between the two countries may be reached on Monday.
“We’re still a work in progress.”
The deal reportedly involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a plan for further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
According to reports, the five main issues at stake are:
1 Iran’s Nuclear Program
2 Control of the Strait of Hormuz
3 Frozen Iranian Assets
4 Iran-backed proxies
5 Iran’s missiles
But first and foremost, it’s about 1 and 2, in terms of what the United States should consider paramount.
The futures markets, even with Wall Street being closed Monday, opened Sunday night and crude oil and gasoline futures plummeted. Oil fell from Friday’s close of $97 to below $90 early this afternoon and as I go to post, WTI is at about $90.40.
Gasoline futures fell 20 cents to $3.25, which is also 50 cents below the $3.75 high.
The price at the pump, which peaked at about $4.56, was, as you see above, $4.50 this morning, but if we hold the gains this should be about $4.25 later this week.
That’s assuming a formal memorandum of understanding is agreed to by both sides.
The devil, of course, will be in the details and what follows in the days to come.
—
Equity markets closed.
Oil (WTI) $90.40.…Brent $96.10 [3:00 PM ET, Mon.]
Gold $4565
Silver $78.05
Bitcoin $77,550 [3:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.12% [Friday, 5/22]
U.S. 10-yr. 4.55% [Friday, 5/22]
Japanese 10-yr. 2.68% [Monday, 5/25]
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
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