Monday, June 22, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., June 22…regular $3.92…diesel $5.01
As of Monday morning, there were signs of life in negotiations between the United States and Iran after fits and starts all weekend. Negotiators expressed optimism about a path toward reaching a permanent deal to end the conflict after the first day of talks in Switzerland.
But there are obstacles. Fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon flared over the weekend and this remains the most serious threat.
Conflicting signals over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz also underscored the fragility of the talks.
But diplomats leaving the talks early Monday morning in Switzerland put a decidedly positive spin on the negotiations, reporting progress.
Qatar and Pakistan, the two intermediaries between Iran and the U.S., emphasized in a joint statement that progress was made through the creation of a “High Level Committee” to provide political oversight of the mediation.
The committee agreed to a “roadmap” toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, the countries said. Qatar and Pakistan said they appreciated the U.S. and Iran for their “ongoing commitment to diplomacy and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.”
The parties also agreed to a “de-confliction cell” that will include the U.S. and Iran and Lebanon, facilitated by Qatar and Pakistan. This cell will “ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MOU (memorandum of understanding).”
The statement said technical talks will continue this week.
But Israel is not a signatory, nor Hezbollah, and that’s a problem.
Nonetheless, Vice President JD Vance hailed what he said was major progress during direct negotiations between Trump administration officials and their Iranian counterparts at the Burgenstock Resort in Switzerland on Sunday.
“Yesterday was a very, very good day. We made a lot of progress. We did exactly what we wanted to do,” Vance said Monday.
Vance said “a very good foundation” was laid for a successful, final deal.
The vice president referred to four points accomplished during the talks, including the establishment of mechanisms to demine the Strait of Hormuz and for deconfliction for the regional ceasefire, as well as the process for the technical negotiations that will follow.
Vance also announced that Tehran has agreed to permit the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country, calling it “a major milestone for the American people.”
“That’s exactly what we wanted to do. That’s exactly what we asked to happen. We made a lot of great progress on other nuclear talks,” he said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X Monday morning:
“Under @realDonaldTrump and @VP, we continue to make the world safer and more prosperous.
“In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country.
“As part of the framework, Treasury has issued a temporary 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil.”
In the past when the IAEA was allowed into Iran, the Iranians stonewalled and blocked the agency from visiting suspected Iranian enrichment sites that the IAEA’s investigators said warranted a visit.
Iran, replying to Vance’s remarks on inspections, challenged the claim, saying Vance’s assertion was “false and does not reflect reality.”
Separately, an explosion tore through Qatar’s key natural gas export terminal Sunday night as workers tried to resume operations after Iran bombed it during the war, causing a fire that killed at least 13 people and injured 66 others.
The blast at the Ras Laffan industrial area could cause further chaos in global energy markets, as Qatar remains one of the world’s top natural gas producers. Qatar shut down its production after Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz meant it couldn’t get shipments out to clients.
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi told a news conference Monday afternoon: “I would like to emphasize that this was an accident and not sabotage or hostile in nature.”
The dead came from India and Pakistan.
The impact on global energy markets is not known at this point.
Crude oil extended losses to below $74 on WTI (Aug. contract), hovering near its lowest level since early March, following the reports of progress in the Iran talks, as well as the U.S. Treasury Department’s authorization of the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products for 60 days, boosting expectations of a faster supply recovery. Shipping activity through the Strait has also increased.
A full reopening of the Strait could release about 80 million barrels into the market, adding pressure to prices as demand remains weak.
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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour Party leader today, a move that will result in Britain’s seventh prime minister in the last ten years.
On the equity front, SpaceX shares continued to decline from their post-IPO highs of early last week, falling another 16% today to $155, which is still above the IPO price of $135, but a substantial decline from the high of $225 intraday on Tuesday.
SpaceX said the proceeds (total size of the offering not yet announced) would largely be used “to repay the outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility in full” and other related fees and expenses. One figure bandied about is $20 billion.
This is a rare move for a company that just went public, which is not being well received by investors.
Lastly, we note the passing of former Federal Reserve chair, and giant, Alan Greenspan, 100, who served five four-year terms under four presidents, 1987-2006. He served during some good times, and not so good, exiting before the global financial crisis hit, caused by excessive speculation in real estate and some crazy financial instruments packaged around same that at first he endorsed.
Over his career, however, he was widely praised.
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Dow Jones +148…+0.3% [51712]
S&P 500 -27…-0.4% [7472]
Nasdaq -351…-1.3% [26166]
Oil (WTI) $74.25…Brent $78.25
Gold $4185
Silver $65.05
Bitcoin $64,415 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.23%…new cycle high….
U.S. 10-yr. 4.50%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.66%
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
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