Tues., July 28, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., July 28…regular $4.09…diesel $5.32
The pause in military action between the United States and Iran continued and the leading barometer, crude oil, fell below $80, as renewed diplomatic efforts over the Strait of Hormuz improved the outlook for Middle East supplies.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held separate talks with his Saudi and Omani counterparts, focusing on restoring security in the strategic waterway after disruptions following five months of stop-and-start war.
Oman has proposed a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait, allowing Iran to collect voluntary transit fees, a plan that has reportedly gained support from Gulf states.
President Trump has said Washington was holding “good talks” with Tehran, but that aspect just isn’t true. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said yesterday that while “it’s possible that mediators share messages from the U.S. side about current developments,” no formal negotiations are currently taking place.
Regional risks remained elevated after Saudi Arabia intercepted drones launched from Iraq targeting oil facilities, blaming Iran-backed groups, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed an attack on the kingdom’s East-West pipeline.
Today was a big day at the White House as President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and then Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, back-to-back.
Relations are better between Trump and Zelensky now and Zelensky after posted on social media that he had a “good meeting” with Trump. He said they discussed Trump’s pledge to allow Ukraine to produce U.S.-designed Patriot air defense systems. “We also spoke about diplomacy,” he added – likely a reference to peace talks that have been stalled for months.
It was expected Netanyahu was going to have a tougher time. In an earlier interview today with “Fox & Friends,” Trump downplayed reports that Netanyahu would present new information about an uptick in activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected Iranian nuclear site.
“I don’t need Bibi to tell me that,” Trump said. “Bibi is telling me that because he wants me to stay involved.” He added, “We took out their nuclear sites, and we’ll have to take out Pickaxe if we don’t make a deal.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the country “very much wants to attack energy targets in Iran but that the United States does not allow it at the moment, out of concern that Iran will hit neighboring states, and that there’ll be a global fuel crisis.”
Katz, addressing an Israeli security conference hours before Netanyahu’s meeting at the White House, added that Israel was ready to hit Iran a third time by itself and “take it back 40 years.”
With oil tumbling, bonds rallied as it certainly helps the Federal Reserve with their rate decision tomorrow…as in to stay put, though giant market making firm Citadel Securities, headed by Ken Griffin, thinks the Warsh Fed will surprise with a ¼-point hike.
As I noted yesterday, politics and the timing of the midterm elections is a factor. If you’re in the ‘raise rates’ camp, it does have to be tomorrow because you would think the Fed wouldn’t want to hike rates at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, being too close to November.
Turning to the stock market, Nasdaq recovered from an early drubbing after South Korea’s Kospi index plunged nearly 11% on Tuesday on heavy selling of computer chipmaking stocks that have been battered recently by bouts of selloffs triggered by fears the boom in artificial intelligence may turn out to be a bubble.
Shares in chipmaker Samsung Electronics sank 13.4%, while those of SK Hynix tumbled 14.7%.
A big factor driving the selling of AI-related shares, analysts said, is the expectation that rising competition from Chinese AI startups and chipmakers might undermine gains for leading global companies whose shares have skyrocketed in the past months due to the AI frenzy.
A 466% jump (you’re reading that right) in the price of Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT in its trading debut Monday has underscored such concerns. CXMT raised at least $8.8 billion in its IPO in Shanghai. Its shares dropped 4% Tuesday.
So, we’ll see what tomorrow brings…with key tech earnings coming Wed. and Thurs.
Dow Jones +537…+1.0% [52747]
S&P 500 +15…+0.2% [7428]
Nasdaq -55…-0.2% [24876]
Oil (WTI) $79.00…Brent $83.70
Gold $4025
Silver $57.20
Bitcoin $63,830 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.27%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.60%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.75%
Back Wed.
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Brian Trumbore